- Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Cameron Krutwig, Jr., Loyola Chicago
Coach of the Year: Dana Ford, Missouri State
Newcomer of the Year: Lamont West, R Sr., Missouri State
Freshman of the Year: DeAndre Williams, R Fr., Evansville

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. Missouri State

Key Returners: Keandre Cook, Tulio Da Silva, Kabir Mohammed, Jared Ridder
Key Losses: Jarred Dixon, Josh Webster, Ryan Kreklow, Obediah Church, Szymon Wojcik
Key Newcomers: Lamont West (West Virginia), Josh Hall (Nevada), Tyrik Dixon (Middle Tennessee), Isiaih Mosley, Tyem Freeman, Ja’Monta Black, Ford Cooper, Gaige Prim (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: If there was ever any doubt about the Dana Ford hire, it is completely gone now. Picked to finish 8th in the Missouri Valley last preseason, Missouri State finished T-3rd in Ford’s first year after coming over from Tennessee State. This season, the Bears are the preseason MVC favorite with hands-down the most talented roster in the conference, one that is largely made up of transfers. Missouri State hasn’t won a Valley regular season title since Cuonzo Martin roamed the sidelines in 2011 and hasn’t punched a ticket to the Big Dance since 1999 under Steve Alford. With an embarrassing amount of talent this year, Ford’s squad is in prime position to end both those droughts in 2019-20.

Ford’s offense centers on the pick-n-roll, where his athletic guards can work off ball screens and feed open shooters on the wings or dump to an active, rolling big man. Like all Valley teams, the Bears play at a slow tempo and emphasize ball protection. MO State was one of the better squads in the conference last year at earning trips to the foul line and second chance opportunities via the offensive glass. Despite all the talent flowing in from the transfer wire, the Bears have a hole at the point guard position with the departure of Josh Webster. Middle Tennessee transfer Tyrik Dixon will likely see some starts there, but freshman Ford Cooper Jr. could run the offense as well. Then there’s three-point shooting, suddenly a concern with the losses of Jarred Dixon and Ryan Kreklow. Guys like Keandre Cook, Jared Ridder, Lamont West, Josh Hall, and Isiaih Mosely can all pitch in to this cause, but none are as prolific as the two departures.

Cook, a 3rd Team All-MVC and All-Newcomer member last season, is the best and highest-volume returning shooter on the roster. He was one of the two main beneficiaries of Ford’s ball screen offense last year and promises to take on a much higher usage role in 2019-20. The former JUCO transfer can play multiple spots on both ends of the floor and should be one of the better players in the Valley in his last collegiate season. He’ll be supported by a cadre of options, with Dixon, Hall, Mosley, Cooper, and freshmen Tyem Freeman and Ja’monta Black all in play for minutes.

Dixon started nearly every game for two very good MTSU squads in 2016-17 and 2017-18 and is the most experienced point guard on the roster. Hall is a versatile wing from Nevada who earned several starts before being pushed out by Eric Musselman’s insane transfer haul a year ago. Hall will aid in scoring, shooting, defending, and rebounding for the Bears. Mosley and Freeman are two of the top prospects in Missouri (shots fired at Mizzou for losing out on these guys). Mosley is ranked as a 4-star wing by ESPN and has a strong, smooth style to his game. He’s not overly athletic, but he’s effective in spite of that – likewise, his shooting form is pretty gross, but it goes in fairly often. Freeman tore his ACL in December, so likely won’t be 100% ready by the time season starts. The 3/4 star wing is very athletic and long and is a good redshirt candidate on a stacked roster in 2019-20. Black, a high school teammate of Mosley, is a quick and athletic combo guard who likely gets buried behind the rest of the MO State talent. Cooper is a borderline top 100 recruit in the class of 2020; he may not be a 20+ minute contributor in year one, but he should develop into a quality collegiate point guard over his MO State career.

Ford has a ton of depth in the backcourt and on the wing, but his frontcourt is even more impressive. 2018-19 First Team All-MVC member and Newcomer of the Year Tulio Da Silva returns for his final collegiate season after dominating the Valley coming off two decent years at South Florida. Da Silva ranked in the MVC top five in both OR% and DR% and racked up the lion’s share of the Bears’ “stocks” (steals and blocks) last season. He even started expanding his range out past the three-point arc, and he is an excellent roll man in MO State’s preferred PnR sets – either as a pick-n-pop threat or barreling to the hoop:

Da Silva’s combination of size and mobility is unmatched among big men in the Missouri Valley.

He’ll team up with Lamont West, a West Virginia grad transfer who should compete with Da Silva for Player of the Year honors. West was a regular starter for the Mountaineers and led them in scoring in 2018-19. He stretches the floor on offense and started attacking the rim much more during his junior season. The deadly duo will be backed up by senior Kabir Mohammed, sophomore Darian Scott, and JUCO transfer Gaige Prim. Mohammed is a major rebounder despite standing just 6’5”. He scored in double figures six times last year and is one of the Bears’ better frontcourt defenders. Prim is ranked as the #2 JUCO recruit in the country after averaging 20.7 PPG and 11.5 RPG last year and earning First Team All-American honors while playing for powerhouse (and JUCO Final Four qualifier) South Plains. Many considered Prim to be the best JUCO big man in the country last season, and he played in one the best JUCO conferences in the land. A traditional post player, Prim will be a nice complement to the mobile Da Silva and/or West.

Sophomore Jared Ridder is MSU’s “breakout watch” player this season. The 6’8” forward can play on the wing or at the 4 and many tagged him to be a future pro when he came out of HS (#1 prospect in Missouri – again, way to go Mizzou). Ridder sat out the first nine games of the season in 2018-19 while waiting to become eligible but settled in nicely in conference play, shooting 39.2% from deep in the Valley and playing solid defense. Ford has plenty of lineup options at his disposal, but a three-man frontcourt of Da Silva / West / Ridder will be incredibly deadly on both ends of the floor.

Defense was MO State’s strong suit last year, ranking 2nd in the Valley per KenPom and leading the league in TO rate and Block rate. The Bears gave up way too many threes in 2018-19, but their opponents also shot 40.3% from downtown (2nd highest percentage in the country), so there’s certainly an element of luck to MSU’s struggles defending the arc last year. Expect that number to regress as Ford acquires more length and experience on the perimeter. With the amount of athletes and switchable pieces he brings in off the transfer wire, the Bears should once again be one of the better defensive teams in the MVC.

Bottom Line: On paper, Missouri State is clearly the most talented team in the Valley. Ford appears to have what it takes to coach at a high level, but meshing a significant amount of new faces (and possibly egos) is a challenge for any coach. Unseating two-time champ Loyola will not be an easy task, but the Bears have the goods to get it done. An end to the 20-year Tourney drought would be a welcome event to the Springfield faithful.

2. Loyola Chicago

Key Returners: Cameron Krutwig, Cooper Kaifes***, Aher Uguak, Lucas Williamson, Franklin Agunanne, Bruno Skokna
Key Losses: Marques Townes, Clayton Custer, Christian Negron, Isaiah Bujdoso
Key Newcomers: Tate Hall (D2), Keith Clemons (JUCO), Jalon Pipkins (JUCO), Marquise Kennedy, Paxson Wojcik, Tom Welch

*** Cooper Kaifes is out for the season with a torn labrum

Lineup:

Outlook: College basketball pundits everywhere pegged last year’s Loyola squad as a top 25 or even top 15 squad, blinded by the improbable Final Four and likely focused on the media attention. Cooler heads, like the Weave and our buddy Ken Pomeroy, thought far differently. While the Ramblers were still a good team in 2018-19, they were a far cry from the magical 32-6 2017-18 squad. Regardless, Porter Moser has firmly established a winning culture in Chicago, capturing back-to-back Valley titles, and now looks to be in prime position to challenge for a third. Marques Townes, last year’s MVC POY, and Clayton Custer, 2017-18 MVC POY, are both gone, but the Ramblers have a wealth of talent coming in from the transfer wire and HS ranks to pair with their superlative big man in the middle.

Townes and Custer’s departures are big blows to the program. They were the leaders of the team last season and shared in the all-important point guard responsibilities. Townes’ impact was especially jarring, as shown by the on/off numbers from our pals at Hoop Lens:

Loyola’s league-best offense turned pedestrian without the conference POY in the lineup. The Ramblers had the best offense in the Valley in 2018-19, yes, but the league as a whole was very offensively challenged. MVC basketball has never been known for being glamorous, but last year was painful to watch when inefficiency met the slowest tempo among the 32 conferences in America. Loyola has generally been an exception to the dull offense MVC rule the past couple years with its 4-out offensive attack highlighted by lethal outside shooting. This season, offense will once again be run through big man Cameron Krutwig, a 1st Team All-MVC member last year. Krutwig is a dominant post scorer and excellent roll man in Moser’s ball screen heavy offense, and he’s also one of the best passing bigs in the country. Last year, Krutwig ranked 3rd in the Valley in assist rate, punishing teams who decided to double down when he caught the ball on the block. Of course, not doubling Krutwig in the post was also a doomed decision, which made the 6’9” 255 lb. center arguably the toughest matchup in the league. In 2019-20, Krutwig will be a serious candidate to become the Ramblers’ third straight Valley POY, and, like Townes, had an enormous impact on the offensive end last season:

A stylistic nugget somewhat unique to Loyola is its preference to not crash the boards on offense. Moser often plays four guys out on the perimeter, but instead of having them attack the glass on a shot attempt, his guys sprint back on defense in order to stop the opponent’s impending transition attack. Krutwig ranked 4th in the MVC in OR% last year but Loyola was 346th in the entire country - he was a one-man band. Conversely, the Ramblers allowed the 7th fewest chances in transition in the country (somewhat influenced by the slow pace of the play in the Valley). That commitment to getting back defensively is one of Loyola’s keys on that end of the floor, along with a keen focus on rebounding (#1 defensive rebounding team in the nation last season), playing without fouling, and forcing turnovers.

Unfortunately for the Ramblers, they’ve already received bad news in the injury realm this offseason. Sophomore Cooper Kaifes, an MVC All-Freshman Team member last year, is out for the season following a torn hip labrum (ouch). Kaifes was expected to be a starter this coming season and play a key role on the wing as a knockdown shooter. His absence means Moser will have to rely more on his incoming recruiting class for production, as well as key returners Lucas Williamson and Bruno Skokna. Williamson battled injuries of his own all last season, playing in just 16 games due to hand issues. His absence crushed an already thin wing corps and depleted Loyola’s shooting and defense. This season could be a big year for Williamson, a 42% career 3P shooter, as he takes on a larger role in the offense. Defensively, he’s one of Moser’s best on the perimeter and can guard 1-3. Skokna isn’t spectacular, but he’s a fine role player who contributes on the defensive end and knocks down a shot every now and again.

Moser’s other two returners are redshirt junior Aher Uguak and sophomore Franklin Agunanne. Uguak had a very inconsistent season in 2018-19, but noticeably improved in conference play. Like Wiliamson, Uguak is an active defender who can guard multiple spots. He gets to the line at a high rate and can occupy the “4-spot” in Moser’s 4-out system. Agunanne is a physically gifted big man who will reprise his role as Krutwig’s primary backup this season. He’s most valuable as a shot blocker playing about 10-12 minutes per game.

The incoming Loyola class is packed with talent and should help replenish the production coffers left bare by Custer and Townes. D2 transfer Tate Hall is one of the most anticipated newcomers after sitting out last season due to the nonsensical transfer rules. Hall is a 6’6” wing who can play the 4 in Moser’s spread-out system; he’s a big-time outside shooter and led his D2 school in scoring last season with 14.8 PPG. He’ll compete with Uguak and Skokna for a starting gig immediately. Two top 100 JUCO imports also join the fold in Keith Clemons (#56 per JUCOrecruiting.com) and Jalon Pipkins (#75). Clemons likely starts at point guard for the Ramblers in his first D-I season after pouring in 15.6 PPG and dishing out 5.1 APG last year. Moser has also been said to like Clemons’ defensive potential as an on-ball stopper. Pipkins will add even more versatility to an already diverse wing rotation. He’s an athletic two-way swingman who averaged 21.4 PPG / 4.5 RPG / 4.5 APG at his prior stop.

Moser’s three freshmen could also see playing time right away, particularly Marquise Kennedy, a point guard out of Chicago. Kennedy is an athletic lead guard who should compete with Clemons for PG minutes. Paxson Wojcik, a SG out of noted Midwestern powerhouse La Lumiere, will provide depth on the wing and look to expand his role in the future. Tom Welch, a 6’8” forward also from Chicago, gives Loyola some much needed extra muscle up front.

Bottom Line: Loyola will likely be a staple at the top of the Missouri Valley for as long as Moser leads the program. His Ramblers should compete for a third straight regular season title this year and another NCAA Tournament bid.

3. Northern Iowa

Key Returners: AJ Green, Isaiah Brown, Luke McDonnell, Trae Berhow, Tywhon Pickford, Spencer Haldeman
Key Losses: Wyatt Lohaus, Miles Wentzien
Key Newcomers: Antwan Kimmons, Cole Henry, Noah Carter, James Betz

Lineup:

Outlook: UNI has been stuck in unfamiliar territory the last three seasons under Ben Jacobson. The Panthers spent several years atop the MVC standings, making four NCAA Tourney appearances in ten seasons, but lately they’ve struggled to remain a title contender. 2019-20 appears to be the year UNI reasserts its top-tier status – a late run in the 2018-19 Valley Tournament springs hope for the coming year, and the Panthers return the 25th most minutes in college basketball.

Jacobson’s preferred style of play has been well-documented over his 13-year tenure at the helm. The Panthers spread it out on offense, often playing four guards on the floor at any given time, and shoot tons of threes. Like most Valley teams, UNI slows it down on offense and plays almost exclusively in the half court, and like Loyola does not crash the offensive boards, opting instead to send its players back on defense to stop transition opportunities. Offense is primarily run through the capable hands of sophomore AJ Green, the son of associate head coach Kyle Green. Green took the highest percentage of his team’s shots in the conference last season (25th nationally) and was the main reason UNI was 2nd in the country in percentage of plays used via the ball handler in the pick-n-roll.

Green, a 3rd Team All-MVC member and MVC Freshman of the Year last season, conducts the Panther offense. He’ll receive several ball screens or hand-offs every possession down the floor and UNI loves running him off drag screens coming down the court:

He was prone to poor shot selection occasionally (as most high-usage freshman are), but Green is essential to an offense that lacks an abundance of capable scorers. In 2019-20, the Purple Panther star should compete for a spot on the MVC All-Conference First Team.

UNI’s defense has historically been strong under Jacobson, who puts a heavy emphasis on staying between ball and bucket and boxing out on every possession. The Panthers were the 12th best defensive rebounding team in the nation last year, grabbing a plethora of team rebounds off solid box-outs. As the non-offensive glass crash policy suggests, the Panthers stop transition chances at a high rate, ranking 4th last year in limiting those opportunities per Hoop-Math.

Senior wing Isaiah Brown anchors the defense, having earned a spot on the MVC’s All-Defensive squad in 2018-19. Brown ranked 3rd in the Valley in steal rate and 16th in block rate, showing his ability to defend both guards and forwards effectively. Offensively, Brown doesn’t offer a whole lot, but he fills a role as a wing who can shoot the three when called upon and will earn UNI extra possessions with his hustle.

Starting alongside Green and Brown will likely be juniors Trae Berhow and Tywhon Pickford. Berhow rebounds much better than his size suggests and is a knockdown outside shooter (career 39.7%). Like Brown, Berhow can guard power forwards in smaller lineups, giving UNI ample spacing on the floor offensively. Pickford faced injury issues last season but played very well in conference contests. He’s much more of a slasher than a shooter from the wing, able to get to the rack and free throw line at a high rate. The 6’4” guard came in as a highly regarded prospect in 2017 and should be a key secondary scorer in 2019-20 as he finally becomes 100% healthy. Six-foot-one senior Spencer Haldeman will reprise his role as 6th man microwave off the bench. Last year, he connected on 36.2% of his 141 3P attempts.

Luke McDonnell will be the main man in the middle of Jacobson’s 4-out attack. The big man can space the floor (43.2% from 3 on limited attempts) and draws fouls on the block effectively. He’s an excellent screener in the PnR and also a great passer out of the post. Last season, McDonnell ranked 12th in the MVC in assist rate. Like Krutwig at Loyola, McDonnell is the lone “board crasher” on offense, a job he does well, ranking 6th in OR% in the Valley in 2018-19. He’ll be backed up by a trio of returners in Justin Dahl, Shandon “Biggie” Goldman, and Austin Phyfe. Dahl is very big and a solid shot blocker, but he won’t see a ton of time with Phyfe back from injury. Likewise, Goldman can stretch the floor, but he’s also behind Phyfe on the depth chart. After starting a few games as a freshman, Phyfe had big expectations in 2018-19, only to be severely hampered by injury. He’s a capable scorer from inside and outside the arc and would be a valuable addition to UNI’s offense, if healthy.

Jacobson brings in a talented four-man freshmen class featuring Antwan Kimmons, Cole Henry, James Betz, and Noah Carter. Kimmons originally committed to Idaho State but flipped his choice after Bill Evans was let go. He’s a hard-nosed point guard who drives hard to the rim, jumps out of the gym, and gets good height on his jumper. If Jacobson ever wanted to move Green off the ball, Kimmons would be a great option to take the PG reins with his tight handle, quickness, and toughness. Henry is coming off a knee injury he suffered in high school and will redshirt. Betz will provide scoring from inside and out as well as solid post defense on the other end. Carter might be the most ready of the four prospects with his ability to score from all three levels and play the 4 in Jacobson’s system despite standing just 6’4”. He’s similar in stature and style to Bonzie Colson, a wide-body, undersized forward with surprising bounce who can shoot and rebound at a high level.

Bottom Line: After three years of mediocrity, UNI looks to be a legitimate Valley contender in 2019-20. Missouri State and Loyola will garner the most media attention heading into the year, but the Panthers are well-coached and chock full of experienced bodies. Jacobson will look to punch his 5th bid to the NCAA Tournament.

4. Drake  

Key Returners: Tremell Murphy, Noah Thomas, DJ Wilkins, Anthony Murphy, Liam Robbins, Garrett Sturtz,
Key Losses: Nick McGlynn, Brady Ellingson, Nick Norton
Key Newcomers: Roman Penn (Siena), Brady Ernst (Florida Gulf Coast), Joseph Yesufu, Nate Ferguson, Issa Samake, Okay Djamgouz

Lineup:

Outlook: What a season it was for first-year head coach Darian DeVries. After being picked to finish near dead-last in the Valley, Drake split the regular season title with Loyola and DeVries earned some well-deserved hardware as the league’s Coach of the Year. DeVries spent 18 years as an assistant at Creighton under Dana Altman and Greg McDermott before taking over for Nico Medved at Drake, presumably honing his head coaching craft and biding his time to release havoc on the unsuspecting MVC. The Bulldogs bring back a lot of production from that 24-10 (12-6) 2018-19 squad, but they lose MVC 1st Teamer and DPOY Nick McGlynn, All-Conference guard Brady Ellingson, and stud point guard Nick Norton, whose waiver for a 6th year of eligibility was denied this summer by the all-powerful NCAA. DeVries brings in some talent via the transfer wire and high school ranks to help make up for the colossal departures and fight for a second straight Valley title.

Drake plays one of the more uptempo styles in the Valley, taking advantage of its wealth of wing athletes and ball handlers to catch opponents backpedaling on the run. In the halfcourt, DeVries’ squad was one of the best at moving the ball and playing a team-focused style – players constantly pass, cut, and screen away in Drake’s motion offense. The pick-n-roll is also a staple of Drake’s offensive attack, often ran with Noah Thomas, DJ Wilkins, and the departed Nick Norton last season. Each of these guards were capable of using a ball screen and pulling up from deep, hitting the roll man diving to the hoop, or penetrating and kicking to open shooters. The Bulldogs were one of the better overall shooting teams in the nation last year, a result of actual shooting ability but also taking clean, open looks. DeVries had a relative lack of frontcourt depth in 2018-19, so he often ran a 4-out style of offense with Tremell Murphy earning most of the minutes at the “4” spot. Expect a similar look in 2019-20.

Murphy is arguably the most important player on the roster with his ability to affect the game in nearly every facet. He’s a versatile player on both ends of the floor at 6’6”, able to work from the post or handle the ball on the perimeter on offense, and guard multiple positions and grab rebounds on the defensive end. He’ll need to step up in a major way to make up for the McGlynn departure, a big man who, like Murphy, impacted the game in a multitude of ways.

Tremell’s twin brother, Anthony Murphy, likely moves into the starting lineup full-time this season after seeing five starts in 2018-19. Like his bro, Anthony is an athletic wing, but he’s more of a perimeter-oriented player than paint-focused Tremell. Very few teams in the MVC have one let alone two athletes of the Murphys’ caliber on their roster.

Junior Noah Thomas and sophomore DJ Wilkins will round out the starting backcourt. Thomas took over point guard duties when Norton went down with injury 12 games into the season. He struggled with turnovers and his shot in 2018-19, but was capable working out of the pick-n-roll. Perhaps another year under his belt will help his consistency. If not, Siena transfer Roman Penn appears poised to step in and take over PG responsibilities. Penn started 19 games for the Saints as a freshman in 2017-18, turning in a productive year in which he proved to be a capable shooter, driver, and facilitator. Defensively, Penn can be a menace to opposing ball handlers and force steals in bunches. Wilkins’ spot in the starting five won’t be challenged coming off a freshman campaign in which he earned a spot on the Valley’s All-Freshman squad. The sophomore guard acts as a secondary ball handler on offense, thrives in transition, and knocks down open shots (despite a funky, high-arcing shot). He should be one of the better guards in the MVC this season, assuming all is well with his ankle, which he broke in March of last season.

Rounding out the backcourt rotation will be walk-on Garrett Sturtz, who stepped up big-time when injuries piled up, pure shooting JUCO transfer Jonah Jackson, and freshmen point guards Joe Yesufu and Okay Djamgouz. Sturtz was solid on both ends of the floor – as solid as any walk-on could be – but he may see his minutes cut from last season with the arrival of Penn and Yesufu. Yesufu, a 3-star recruit out of Chicago, looks ready to play immediately in the Valley; he possesses great speed and athleticism which should make him a terror in transition. Yesufu’s explosion will also allow him to rise up in the lane and finish above bigger defenders. Djamgouz is a tall PG at 6’5” and a reclass from 2020. He may be a useful collegiate player in a year or two, but it’s unlikely he makes a huge splash in year one.

McGlynn’s departure left Drake’s frontcourt mighty thin so DeVries went to the recruiting trail to aid his lone returning forwards, Liam Robbins and Antonio Pilipovic. Robbins is a massive 7-footer who rebounds and blocks shots at a high level while Pilipovic is more of a stretch 4. Florida Gulf Coast transfer Brady Ernst and freshmen Nate Ferguson and Issa Samake will provide support up front. Ernst, formerly of Iowa State as well, rebounded well last season for FGCU and should eat 10-20 minutes per game in the frontcourt. Ferguson has potential to be one of the better players on the team down the road; he’s a good leaper, skilled in the post, and can handle it on the perimeter. He may not start in 2018-19, but he should be able to carve out some minutes and get acclimated to D1 ball. Samake is an athletic post player with some face-up skills; his addition gives DeVries even more athleticism at the 4 position along with the brothers Murphy.

Like last year, expect Drake to play straight man-to-man nearly all the time and emphasize taking away the three-ball. McGlynn was the Bulldogs’ best defender, but Robbins should be able to provide solid resistance in the paint while athletes like Murphy and Wilkins bother perimeter shooters.

Bottom Line: Drake is on the shortlist of teams that can challenge for a Valley title in 2019-20. DeVries will look to show his first season was no fluke, as he returns a strong corps of athletes / playmakers and adds some promising newcomers to the fold.

5. Bradley

Key Returners: Darrell Brown, Elijah Childs, Nate Kennell, Koch Bar, Ja’Shon Henry
Key Losses: Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye, Luuk van Bree, Antoine Pittman, Luqman Lundy, Jayden Hodgson
Key Newcomers: Danya Kingsby (LSU), Antonio Thomas, Stephan Gabriel, Ville Tahvanainen, Rienk Mast

Lineup:

Outlook: Bradley was the Missouri Valley’s unexpected representative in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, ending the 2018-19 season on a 12-4 run heading into the Dance. The Braves started a miserable 0-5 in MVC play after looking like a real contender in the non-conference portion, knocking off Penn State and SMU on neutral floors. The Tourney appearance was head coach Brian Wardle’s first in his four seasons in Peoria and the school’s first since a Cinderella Sweet 16 run in 2006. With their two best players returning this season, the Braves will look for a repeat visit to the Dance for the first time in school history.

Wardle was quoted this offseason saying he prefers to have two point guards on the floor at all times, if possible. Bradley runs a ton of pick-n-roll and feeds offense through the post in an effort to get easy shots inside the arc, and having two floor generals / ball handlers is important in maximizing that style’s potential. Wardle will have the personnel to run his preferred lineup this season with the return of All-Conference guard Darrell Brown and addition of LSU transfer Danya Kingsby. Brown was excellent last season in a high usage role, scoring at a high rate off ball screens, in transition, and shooting from behind the arc. He led the squad with a 44.9% three-point clip and connected on a scorching 48.2% of his longball tries in MVC play. Kingsby, meanwhile, has yet to play a game of Division I basketball. He originally committed to Pitt in 2018 coming out of junior college (26th best JUCO recruit at the time), but opted to go to LSU instead when Kevin Stallings was launched into the sun. However, he never suited up for the Tigers as a medical condition kept him out for the entire 2018-19 season. Kingsby received a medical waiver this offseason making him immediately eligible for the Braves, and he should be fully healthy and ready to play. He’ll give Bradley a dynamic dual PG look alongside Brown or provide the All-League guard with a competent backup off the pine.

Bradley’s offense wasn’t great overall last season despite hot perimeter shooting. The Braves connected on 37% of their three-point attempts last season (48th nationally) but attempted a relatively low volume. Instead, Bradley was prone to settling for low percentage mid-range jumpers, ranking 7th nationally in percentage of 2P jumpers attempted, per Hoop Math. Despite working constantly through the post, the Braves couldn’t consistently get the ball near the bucket and thus struggled to score inside the arc.

Defense was Bradley’s saving grace last season, especially in the Valley Tournament where it allowed 0.86 PPP, 0.82 PPP, and 0.98 PPP over three contests. The Braves have several switchable options on the roster and vigorously contest shooters inside and outside the three-point line. Wardle mixes in some full-court press and a 3-2 halfcourt zone to supplement his traditional man looks.

Elijah Childs is the player everyone will be watching this season after a breakout 2018-19 campaign in which he earned a spot on the Valley’s 3rd Team All-Conference. Childs really came on strong near the end of the year, rebounding, scoring, and blocking shots at a high rate. Despite standing just 6’7”, Childs is a force on both ends and impacts the game in a variety of ways. With Brown and Childs, Bradley has one of the best one-two tandems in the MVC.

Childs will line up alongside center Koch Bar in the frontcourt, a part-time starter last season whose main value lies in his rebounding and shot blocking abilities. Bar is one of the few Braves who actually consistently takes shots near the hoop, but like his teammates tends to settle for tough 2PFGA. Bar leads a thin frontcourt crew consisting of 7’1” Ari Boya, a seldom used skyscraper who impacts the game how his height implies, and 6’9” Dutch freshman Rienk Mast, who will serve as a stretchy 4 or 5-man option off the bench.

Senior Nate Kennell leads Bradley’s wing corps, a 6’6” sharpshooter who connected on 40% of his 160 3P attempts in 2018-19. Kennell has slowly expanded his game past catch-and-shoot and is a threat to pull from deep off the bounce. A vast majority of Kennell’s 3FG makes were assisted in 2017-18 (92.8%), compared to just 78.5% last season. Competing for playing time on the wing will be sophomore Ja’Shon Henry and freshmen Stephan Gabriel and Ville Tahvanainen. Henry was a high usage player his freshman year, notching key moments like his 15-point, 7-rebound performance against Loyola in early March. His versatility allows him to play multiple spots and he should compete for a starting spot in his second collegiate season. Gabriel will play key minutes at either forward slot; he’s an athletic and aggressive wing who hits the boards hard and drives to the bucket with authority. Tahvanainen is a highly skilled Finnish SG who is surprisingly athletic and crafty on offense. He’ll push for a starting gig if Wardle opts to bring Kingsby off the bench. Antonio Thomas, a 6’2” freshman PG, could see time behind Brown and/or Kingsby as well. He’s a true point guard who can run an offense, facilitate, and score when needed.

Bottom Line: The Valley will be much improved overall from last season. The Braves are slated in this preview to finish in the middle of the pack, but rest assured their ceiling is a league title. Offense will need to improve for Bradley to make a real run at the top, but we saw last year that the Braves are capable of beating just about anyone.

Tier 2

6. Illinois State   

Key Returners: Zach Copeland, Rey Idowu, Matt Chastain, Taylor Bruninga
Key Losses: Milik Yarbrough, Phil Fayne, Keyshawn Evans, Josh Jefferson, William Tinsley, Matt Hein, Isaac Gassman
Key Newcomers: Dedric Boyd (Eastern Kentucky), Keith Fisher III (San Jose State), Jaycee Hillman (San Jose State), Ricky Torres (Wichita State), Abdu Ndiaye (Redshirt), DJ Horne, Antonio Reeves, Harouna Sissoko

Lineup:

Outlook: Illinois State was one of the more frustrating teams in the mid-major realm last season. The Redbirds returned a ton of talent from 2017-18 and looked to be a legit MVC title contender heading into the year. Injuries and chemistry issues contributed to inconsistent play and a lackluster 9-9 conference record. Last year’s squad was Dan Muller’s worst, per KenPom, in his seven-year coaching career, and he admitted to being extremely frustrated with the overall effort and play of his bunch in 2018-19. Muller has yet to lead the Redbirds to the NCAA Tournament despite being a mainstay in the top 3 or 4 of the Valley standings in recent history, but there’s reason to believe his 2019-20 squad can get the job done. Muller appears to have a roster full of high-energy players ready and willing to commit to his defensive-minded principles.

ISU’s offense was prone to stagnation, as much of the attack was run through Milik Yarbough, an inefficient, high-usage forward. Yarbrough was undoubtedly talented, but not enough to justify the 11th highest usage rate in the country. Yarbrough’s shot selection and decision making was a detriment to the Redbirds’ offensive efforts and drove their 346th ranked percentage of shots attempted near the rim (compared to 22nd in 2P jumpers). Muller likes to run his guards off ball screens and feed the low block off cuts and posts, something that should continue in 2018-19 with a general deficiency in shooting.

The defensive end is where ISU should see the most improvements following an uncharacteristically poor season under Muller. Injuries factored into the Redbirds’ relative lack of defensive effectiveness, but it was clear Muller just wasn’t getting full effort from 100% of his roster. That should change in 2019-20, as early reports this offseason indicate the chemistry within the locker room and energy in practices is at a sky-high level. Muller historically has strong defenses, ones that get into the opponents’ jocks and apply high pressure on the ball. Last season, ISU’s man-to-man defense was poor from a points per possession standpoint, but their 2-3 zone, which the Birds played 24% of the time, was excellent. Muller once again has an athletic roster with which to apply his preferred half-court and, occasionally, full-court pressure. As in the past, he’ll mix in zone looks a fair amount throughout the year.

Of the numerous newcomers on the Illinois State roster, San Jose State transfer Keith Fisher III appears the most poised to make the biggest impact in 2019-20. Muller has heaped a healthy serving of praise upon Fisher this offseason, complimenting his never-ceasing effort and energy in practice. He should be one of the better rebounders in the MVC this season and be able to get to the FT line at a high rate. His former SJSU teammate, Jaycee Hillman, should also make an immediate impact on the wing in a scorer role. The 6’6” swingman is an all-around scorer who can handle the ball and facilitate from the perimeter. He also brings versatility on defense and much-needed outside shooting. Hillman likely competes with Eastern Kentucky transfer Dedric Boyd for a starting spot on the wing. Boyd was EKU’s highest used player as a freshman in 2017-18 and the 7th highest used player in the OVC. Unfortunately, Boyd was also a “volume shooter” in every bad sense of the word, connecting on just 40% of his 2PFGA and 28.3% of his 3PFGA for the Colonels. Given Muller’s preference for defense over offense, Boyd likely fills an instant scorer role off the pine this season.

Two backcourt returners, Zach Copeland and Matt Chastain, likely maintain their starting spots from a season ago. Copeland battled injuries and turnover issues last year, but vastly improved his outside shooting in Valley play. He’ll see a major cut of the PG duties, along with Wichita State transfer Ricky Torres, and will be counted on to facilitate and knock down open looks from the perimeter. Chastain was seldom used on the offensive end last year, but was effective when he was. He fills more of a “glue guy” role for ISU, providing hustle plays, defense, and the occasional athletic highlight reel play (see Loyola game back on January 12th). The aforementioned Torres started 10 games for the Shockers last season, serving primarily as a pass-first game manager offensively. He’ll look to bounce back from knee surgery this past June and a dismal 4/45 (8.9%) three-point performance last season.

Freshmen guard additions DJ Horne and Antonio Reeves have their work cut out for them to earn playing time in the crowded ISU backcourt, but both look to be good signees for the future. Horne is an athletic combo guard with quick hands on the defensive end, and Reeves is a super thin shooter out of Simeon HS in Chicago.

Joining Fisher in the frontcourt will be a combination of sophomore Rey Idowu, redshirt sophomore Taylor Bruninga, redshirt freshman Abdou Ndiaye, and true frosh Harouna Sissoko. Idowu appears to have the inside route to a starting gig after spending time in Phil Fayne’s shadow last year. He’s a serviceable rebounder and capable post scorer, but leaves much to be desired from a shot blocking perspective. Bruninga missed last year with a foot injury but should be cleared prior to the start of the season. He started seven games as a freshman in 2017-18 and connected on 35.1% of his 94 three-point attempts, representing ISU’s lone stretch-4 option on the roster. Ndiaye was ruled academically ineligible in 2018-19 but should contribute to the ISU cause this season. He can play multiple positions on the floor, block shots, and rebound at a high rate. Sissoko is an athletic freak who dunks the ball every chance he gets – he should be good for a few highlight reel plays in 2019-20.

Bottom Line: ISU loses a lot of talent from a season ago, but the Redbirds could actually be better this year with a more cohesive roster. Muller will play his trademark scrappy, ugly style of basketball and win games with defense while putting forth sometimes questionable offensive schemes. Illinois State is one of the larger “wild cards” in the Valley this season, capable of finishing anywhere from 1st to 7th in the conference standings.   

7. Indiana State  

Key Returners: Jordan Barnes, Tyreke Key, Christian Williams, Cooper Neese, Bronson Kessinger, De’Avion Washington, Blake Brinkmeyer
Key Losses: Emondre Rickman, Devin Thomas, Clayton Hughes, Allante Houston
Key Newcomers: Cam Bacote (UMES), Christopher Agbo (JUCO), Jared Hankins, Cobie Barnes, Tre Williams, Jacob LaRavia

Lineup:

Outlook: The Sycamores fell off in conference play last season after completing a promising non-conference slate. ISU knocked off elite mid-major foes like Western Kentucky and Wright State and took down Colorado and UNLV in Honolulu. A 35-point pounding to Loyola to open the Valley season was perhaps an omen of things to come, as the Sycamores limped to a 7-11 record and 8th place league finish. 2018-19 was Greg Lansing’s worst per KenPom since he took over the program nine years ago. Indiana State hasn’t been back to the Dance since Lansing’s first season, and though ISU promises to be improved in 2019-20, it faces an uphill climb to end that streak.

ISU’s most glaring issue last season was its lack of size. Emondre Rickman was a big dude but still just 6’9” and easily the most physically imposing player on the roster. Bronson Kessinger is the Sycamores’ only returning big man, a reserve forward with a mighty red beard who contributes only mildly to the rebounding and shot blocking effort. It was due in large part to their lack of size that the Sycamores ranked dead last in the MVC in defense per Kenpom in 2018-19, as they couldn’t stop anybody near the rim. ISU ranked 307th in FG% allowed near the bucket last season and couldn’t keep ball handlers or entry passes out of the lane despite playing a heavy dose of Lansing’s trademark matchup zone. To counteract his inside weakness, Lansing ramped up the ball pressure and extended a bit past halfcourt in an effort to force steals and get easy transition buckets, but it still wasn’t enough to make the Sycamores a decent defensive squad.

To help the frontcourt cause, Lansing brings in two newcomers to join redshirt freshman Blake Brinkmeyer, who played in just five games last season before succumbing to injury. Tre Williams, a 6’7” burly freshman, is a traditional, low-block post player who brings his lunch pail with him every time he steps on the floor. His athleticism will allow him to compete right away in the Valley at the 5-spot. JUCO import Christopher Agbo will add physicality to a roster otherwise lacking that trait; he’ll rebound and force opposing post players out of the paint, but won’t add a whole lot in the scoring department. Brinkmeyer offers more in the realm of rebounding and shot blocking than Kessinger and can play the 4 alongside a more paint-bound big if need be. Against San Jose State last year, Brinkmeyer put up 9 points and 6 boards in just 17 minutes of play.

Backcourt play is king in Terre Haute where the Sycamores have two of the better scoring guards in the conference. Jordan Barnes looks to bounce back after a disappointing junior season in which his O-Rating and 3P% plummeted from his All-Conference sophomore season. Always a bit of a volume shooter, Barnes is liable to score 30 on any given night. Last year, he was able to play more off the ball with the arrival of Iowa’s Christian Williams, but it failed to help improve his percentages. Look for Barnes to get back in the groove in his college farewell tour. Tyreke Key found the scoring lost by Barnes last year, putting up a team high 17.4 PPG on a super-efficient .544 / .440 / .783 slash (2P / 3P / FT). His breakout season led to a spot on the MVC’s All-Conference 2nd Team and his emergence gives ISU two legitimate go-to scorers in crunch time. Key was great from everywhere on the floor, able to knock down outside jumpers and get to the foul line – he ranked 4th in FT rate in the MVC in 2018-19. Barnes and Key are the two main reasons to be excited for this Sycamores team. ISU plays a faster brand of basketball than most Valley squads and depends heavily on superior guard play to win ball games.

Christian Williams will reprise his role as dual point guard alongside Barnes. At 6’5”, Williams’ size at the point makes him a real asset on both ends of the floor. He’s most valuable on the defensive end where he racked up the 2nd best steal rate in the Valley last year, but his facilitation, penetrating, and rebounding ability is essential to ISU’s success. He’ll look to hold off UMES transfer Cam Bacote and freshmen Jared Hankins and Cobie Barnes for playing this season. Bacote started 15 games for UMES as a freshman but was extremely inefficient in his volume shooting. Hankins is an explosive, tough 2-guard with a serious vertical; he’ll be mostly a slasher on offense but can knock down the occasional three-ball. Barnes, a 3-star recruit per Verbal Commits, is a long wing who can work out of the post and make tough shots. Both freshmen should be staples in the ISU lineup for years to come.

Sophomore Cooper Neese leads the ISU wing corps, ahead of Cobie Barnes, Hankins, sophomore De’Avion Washington, and freshman Jacob LaRavia. Neese, an All-Freshman member last season in the MVC, was money from the outside in conference play last year (41.7%) and has the makings of a reliable 3-and-D guy. Washington is mostly a shooter, hitting 40% of his 25 conference attempts in 2018-19. LaRavia, originally a SIUE commit, is a big wing who can shoot and finish in traffic. Like his freshmen cohorts, LaRavia could carve out playing time early in his college career.

Bottom Line: It’s always easy to see a high-scoring backcourt returning and overrate a team because of it. Barnes and Key are arguably the best scoring guard tandem in the Valley this year, but for ISU to be a true conference contender, it must tighten up the screws on defense and develop in the frontcourt. Lansing has historically had top five MVC defenses, so I’d expect that end to improve significantly in 2019-20, especially with the influx of new big bodies. If Barnes returns to his 2017-18 self and Key maintains his red-hot 2018-19 season, ISU will be a tough matchup for Valley foes.

Tier 3

8. Evansville    

Key Returners: KJ Riley, Shamar Givance, John Hall, Evan Kuhlman, Noah Frederking, Jawaun Newton
Key Losses: Marty Hill, Dainius Chatkevicius, Shea Feehan
Key Newcomers: Sam Cunliffe (Kansas), Art Labinowicz (Coastal Carolina), DeAndre Williams (Redshirt), Marcus Henderson, Thomasi Gilgeous-Alexander, Peace Ilegomah (Pittsburgh)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Aces struggled in Walter McCarty’s first year at the helm. After turning in some quality non-conference efforts against Xavier (lost by 6), Texas Southern (won by 22), Ball State (won by 12) and Murray State (lost by 2), among others, Evansville crashed and burned in Valley play, finishing dead last in the league by two games. Winning on the road was a real issue for the Aces, going just 2-14 in away and neutral contests compared to a respectable 9-7 at home. The rough season isn’t all that surprising considering the coaching change and implementation of a brand-new system, plus losing DeAndre Williams prior to the start of the year due to academic ineligibility didn’t help matters. Evansville should be an improved team in 2019-20. The Aces bring back a significant chunk of minutes and add Williams plus several other impact newcomers.

Williams’ eligibility is enormous for Evansville’s MVC title contention chances. The 6’9” forward tore up international competition during the school’s trip to Europe this summer, establishing himself as the Aces’ best player and go-to scorer on offense. McCarty has nothing but praise for Williams, a versatile player he thinks can handle the ball and guard 5s on the other end. Though he’s relatively unknown in the mid-major college basketball world at the moment, rest assured Williams will make his mark on the MVC – he’s arguably the best kept secret in the league.

McCarty completely changed Evansville’s style when he came to town to replace Marty Simmons, who had led the Aces since 2007-08. Like most former NBA players turned CBB coaches nowadays, McCarty teaches the pace-and-space offensive philosophy. His Aces were the MVC’s fastest team in 2019-20 and most prolific three-point shooters. Evansville often played with four or five guys on the floor at one time who could shoot the three, a lineup makeup that resulted in tons of space but little offensive rebounding (3rd worst OR% in the country). Isolation plays, hand-offs, and pick-n-pops were staples in Evansville’s half-court attack last year, an attack that focused heavily on dribble drive and kick-outs to open shooters.

Defensively, the Aces focused on taking away the three-ball, often by ways of a matchup zone. McCarty implemented some full court pressure, something that might increase in 2019-20 given his personnel and preference for playing uptempo, but mostly Evansville was satisfied with getting back and setting up in the half-court. Fouling was a problem last year, as the Aces sent more opponents to the line than any other Valley squad, and resistance at the rim was little. Williams should help on this end, especially with his ability to guard three or four positions, but frontcourt size will continue to be a weakness for the Aces this season.

Ball-handling duties will primarily reside with KJ Riley, a 6’5” point guard who ranked 9th in the MVC in usage in 2018-19. Riley is all drive all the time, shooting just 15.3% from downtown on 59 career attempts and leading the Valley two straight years in FT rate. Word on the street is Kansas transfer Sam Cunliffe will also share some of the ball-handling load. Cunliffe is still largely a mystery after transferring from Arizona State after ten games and then from Kansas after being banished to the bench. He is clearly talented and came to college as a 4-star recruit, but he’s yet to prove anything at this level. He should be a staple in McCarty’s starting five all year and very few players in the MVC can match his athleticism.

Coastal Carolina transfer Art Labinowicz will also start in the backcourt this season. He’s a flamethrower from deep who can also take it to the rack. In 2017-18, Labinowicz was one of the Chanticleers’ best scorers. Sophomores Shamar Givance and Jawaun Newton and junior Noah Frederking will earn the lion’s share of the backup backcourt minutes. Givance turned in a pretty good freshman year, ranking 2nd in the Valley in assist rate and hitting outside shots. Newton mostly struggled last year from an efficiency standpoint and may cede some playing time this year to the incoming freshman and transfers. Frederking will serve a key role as an outside shooter off the pine.

Freshmen Marcus Henderson and Thomasi Gilgeous-Alexander will push the aforementioned backcourt role players for minutes. Henderson can play either guard spot with his handling and shooting prowess. Gilgeous-Alexander, brother of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is a long and lanky ball handler with gobs of potential to develop into a star player in the Valley.

As said before, Evansville’s frontcourt is thin, even with the addition of Williams. John Hall and Evan Kuhlman, the two other returning bigs, are mostly stretch options on offense, which is great for spacing but detrimental to rebounding and interior defense. Given the roster composition, McCarty may go with a good share of small-ball lineups and increase his matchup zone looks frequency. Pitt transfer Peace Ilegomah will be eligible for at least one semester, which could be huge for Evansville’s interior defensive issues.

Bottom Line: Evansville hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1999 under Jim Crews, but the school’s basketball program is clearly in good hands with McCarty. Even if the X’s and O’s take a while to develop, McCarty’s ability to bring in talent is unmatched in program history. Guys like Cunliffe, Williams, and Gilgeous-Alexander likely wouldn’t have given Evansville the time of day without McCarty, a former Kentucky player and Rick Pitino assistant, roaming the sidelines. The MVC is a much better league this season, so making a giant move up the standings will prove to be difficult. However, the Aces have one of the more athletic teams in the conference, so a top five finish and return to MVC competitiveness is certainly possible.

9. Valparaiso

Key Returners: Javon Freeman, Daniel Sackey, Ryan Fazekas, John Kiser, Mileek McMillan
Key Losses: Derrik Smits, Bakari Evelyn, Markus Golder, Deion Lavender, Jaume Sorolla
Key Newcomers: Nick Robinson (St. Joseph’s), Eron Gordon (Seton Hall), Zion Morgan (JUCO), Sigurd Lorange, Donovan Clay, Emil Freese-Vilien, Ben Krikke

Lineup:

Outlook: Valpo has yet to hit its stride in the Missouri Valley, notching a 13-23 conference record over the past two seasons. Head coach Matt Lottich has yet to prove he can win without inheriting Bryce Drew’s guys and faces an uphill challenge in 2019-20 without four of his best players from last season. The Crusaders certainly had their fair share of injury trouble last year, which contributed to a lackluster Valley record, but even with a full squad this was a below average team in 2018-19. Lottich brings in some nice pieces from the transfer wire, which he hopes can make up for the lost production of Derrik Smits, Bakari Evelyn, Markus Golder, and Deion Lavender.

Ryan Fazekas’s injury was the most impactful for Valpo last season. The former Friar played just 18 games, battling an ankle injury that loomed through the second half of the season. Without Fazekas, the Crusaders went just 3-8 in MVC play compared to 4-3 when the 6’7” wing was on the floor. Fazekas was the only player on the team to shoot over 32% from three last season (aside from Jaume Sorolla’s 2/2 mark), so when he went down, Valpo’s three-point shooting became non-existent. The Crusaders managed to hit just 26.7% of their three-point attempts and score 0.93 PPP when Fazekas was off the floor compared to 37% and 1.03 PPP when he played. Now fully healthy, expect Fazekas to be a key factor in Valpo’s ball screen and interior-focused offense.

The injuries may have played a factor in Lottich’s decision to slow the tempo down from his 2017-18 squad. The Crusaders ranked 300th in the country in pace compared to 90th two seasons ago. Rather than push in transition, Valpo preferred to operate out of the halfcourt, feeding Smits in the post and letting Evelyn, Lavender, and Javon Freeman work out of the pick-n-roll.

The structure of Valpo’s offensive attack won’t change dramatically, but it’s likely to be more perimeter oriented without a post threat like Smits in the mix and a relatively thin front line. Freeman and St. Joe’s transfer Nick Robinson will be relied on heavily to provide scoring from all areas of the court. Freeman will look to improve his outside shot this season and develop into a true two-way player. Just a sophomore, he’s already arguably the league’s best perimeter stopper (led league in SPG and steal rate) and earned a spot on the MVC’s All-Defensive Team to go with his All-Freshman honors. Robinson is a legit scoring threat from all three levels, shooting a 2P / 3P / FT slash of .504 / .348 / .803 at St. Joe’s in 2017-18 and ranking 4th in the A-10 in FT rate.

Sophomore PG Daniel Sackey and Seton Hall transfer Eron Gordon likely battle it out for the last starting backcourt slot. Sackey will need to button down pervasive turnover issues suffered through as a freshman, but like Freeman he’s a pesky on-ball defender. Gordon was stuck behind a talented Pirate backcourt, earning minimal playing time in two seasons. At Valpo, he’ll be a starter and/or a key player off the bench with his ability to shoot, drive, and handle the basketball. JUCO transfer Zion Morgan and freshman PG Sigurd Lorange will also scrap for minutes in the Crusader backcourt. Morgan started five games at UNLV his freshman year, proving to be a solid shooter and above average rebounder for a wing. Lorange, who comes to Valpo via Norway, averaged 17.8 PPG for his country in the FIBA U18 Euro Championships. He’ll add scoring and ball security to the Valpo guard corps.

On the wing, John Kiser will resume his duties as “dirty work specialist”, likely more so in a reserve role in 2019-20. He hits the glass hard and plays solid defense but rarely shoots on offense. He’ll try to fend off freshman Donovan Clay for playing time on the wing. Clay can play all three spots on the perimeter and guard multiple positions on the defensive end.

Valpo’s front line is shaky at best. Mileek McMillan is the only returning frontcourt player (excluding Fazekas), and he’s more of a stretchy big than a paint-bound bruiser. Freshmen Emil Freese-Vilien (Denmark) and Ben Krikke (Canada) likely both see some minutes this year due to the depth concerns. Freese-Vilien is still developing his game, having just started playing ball a few years ago, but he can function as a paint protector and provide soft touch around the hoop. Krikke is a lumbering big who can score inside and out.

Bottom Line: The Crusaders featured the league’s worst offense in 2018-19, but also boasted the best defense. Paint protection was the primary key to success, as Smits and Sorolla manned the middle, and pesky perimeter stoppers like Freeman and Sackey hounded opposing ball handlers. Lottich squads have always been strong defensively, so expect that trend to continue in 2019-20. If the offense comes around with an improvement from Freeman and a major impact from Robinson, Valpo could conceivably challenge for an upper-half Valley finish.

10. Southern Illinois

Key Returners: Aaron Cook, Eric McGill
Key Losses: Kavion Pippen, Armon Fletcher, Sean Lloyd, Marcus Bartley, Rudy Stradnieks, Thik Bol, Darius Beane
Key Newcomers: Ronnie Suggs (Missouri), Barret Benson (Northwestern), Harwin Francois (JUCO), Lance Jones, Marcus Domask, Sekou Dembele (Redshirt), Trent Brown, Stevan Jeremic (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Barry Hinson era has ended in Carbondale after seven seasons of competitive basketball. Hinson spent 16 total years in the Valley as head coach of Missouri State and SIUC, but never made the NCAA Tournament. His 2018-19 Salukis were the 3rd best team in the Valley last year but failed to excel in postseason play. New head coach Bryan Mullins will start with a mostly empty cupboard highlighted by two key returning guards and a slew of newcomers. Mullins played point guard for the Salukis back in the mid-to-late 2000s under then-head coach Chris Lowery, making two NCAA Tournaments during his career. He’s since spent time as an assistant under Porter Moser at Loyola, and now becomes one of the youngest head coaches in the country at just 33 years old. His team will be experienced, starting perhaps four seniors, but the new faces will need to gel quickly to be competitive in an improved MVC.

Mullins’ preferred style of play is an unknown at this point, but he may take cues from his former boss, Moser, and/or former coach, Lowery. Offensively, the Salukis will likely spread it out and go with a 4-out look, looking to score from the perimeter instead off drives and post-ups. Moser’s squads are notorious for not crashing the glass and getting back on defense, so Mullins may instruct his teams to do the same. As a former PG, Mullins likely will put a heavy emphasis on ball movement, motion, and finding open looks from the outside. Defensively, Lowery’s teams pressured and forced turnovers and Moser’s have done the same the past few years. Mullins was a part of some elite defenses as a player, so this end of the floor will likely be a focus in his inaugural season.

Personnel-wise, SIU will rely on returners Aaron Cook and Eric McGill for offensive production. Cook runs the point and doubles as a pesky defender on the other end. He’ll be asked to take a step-up in usage and be a reliable three-level scorer. McGill knocked down 40.2% of his three-point tries in 2018-19. Like Cook, McGill can handle the ball, create steals, and create his own shot, and also adds a stout rebounding presence from the backcourt. 

The returning guards will be flanked by Missouri transfer Ronnie Suggs, JUCO import Harwin Francois, and freshmen Marcus Domask, Lance Jones, and Trent Brown. Suggs started his career in the Valley at Bradley where he earned a ton of minutes as a freshman. He was nothing special at Mizzou but likely starts for the Salukis given his size and experience. Perhaps a shift down in competition will allow Suggs to have a bigger impact this season. Domask, Wisconsin’s 2019 Mr. Basketball, comes in as a big guard who can handle the rock and shoot from the outside. His HS competition is a bit suspect, but he can absolutely play in the MVC and should be ready to provide key minutes in his freshman season. Francois will add shooting (47.8% from three last year in JUCO) and defense to the wing. He’ll challenge Suggs for the third starting backcourt spot. Jones is a super shifty, athletic, and strong guard who can shoot from deep. I love his game and think he can be a very good player in the MVC in the near future. Brown adds even more shooting from the perimeter; he teamed up with Arizona freshman Nico Mannion in high school.

Mullins will rely heavily on his backcourt for scoring this season because his frontcourt is quite thin. The aforementioned Domask will likely have to steal minutes at the 4-spot this season with only four other guys, Brendon Gooch, Barret Benson, Sekou Dembele, and late signee Stevan Jeremic possessing the requisite size to play up front. Gooch can space the floor from the 4-spot and rebounds well for his size, but he’s yet to play major minutes at the collegiate level. Benson comes by way of Northwestern and should start at center for the Salukis in 2019-20. He’ll add rebounding and shot blocking but won’t offer much help offensively. Dembele, a redshirt last season, is still a bit raw offensively, but he gives the Salukis more muscle up front and will help on the glass. Jeremic is the tallest player on the roster and will be forced into minutes at the 5.

Bottom Line: Being picked to finish this low is unfamiliar territory for SIU, a school that hasn’t finished lower than 5th in the Valley since 2015. A new coach and major roster turnover creates too much uncertainty in a league where nearly every other school is improving.