First Round Game Previews: Midwest Region
- Ky McKeon
1. Kansas vs. 16. Texas Southern
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Texas Southern took down Texas A&M Corpus Christi on Tuesday. The Tigers’ defense was dominant in the interior led by Houston transfer Brison Gresham.
- This game is in Fort Worth - advantage TSU???
- Kansas had some doubters when they dropped two straight to Baylor and TCU, but the Jayhawks - as they usually do - won the Big 12 regular season title and the conference tournament championship.
- KU has arguably the “easiest” draw of all the 1-seeds
- KU rolled in the Big 12 Tourney, winning by 24, 13, and 9.
Texas Southern Has the Ball
- They cannot shoot and do not look to shoot much from deep. Just 275th in 3P%
- Against TAMU-CC, TSU shot 4/13 from deep. They didn’t need the 3-ball though. TAMU-CC fouled them constantly and gave them all the interior looks they needed.
- Transition is key, want to get out in the open floor
- Pick-n-roll in the half-court. TSU has a plethora of talented guards and long wings. TSU leads the country in bench minutes and any given player on any given night can lead them in scoring.
- Rim attack is key, as is pounding the offensive glass. TSU has legitimate size in Brison Gresham (Houston transfer) and Joirdan Karl Nicholas (SFA / Montana).
- Kansas is not an elite interior defensive team, but they’ll have a size edge that TSU cannot exploit. David McCormack will be the biggest dude on the floor. Mitch Lightfoot is scrappy, Jalen Wilson is athletic and long.
- TSU needs to get McCormack in foul trouble, something they could certainly do.
- Reminder: Texas Southern beat Florida this season
- TSU is a TERRIBLE ball handling team. The Tigers rank 337th in TO rate nationally
- TSU looked completely disheveled at times against the TAMU-CC pressure. The Tigers had “just” 15 turnovers, but they were sloppy.
- KU won’t really turn you over. No team in the Big 12 forced less turnovers than the Jayhawks this season. However, KU has the athleticism, quickness, and talent edge + TSU is BEGGING to give the ball away, forced or unforced.
- TSU is a bad free throw shooting team (67.1%, 319th in country).
- Incredibly, TSU took this stat and shoved it up TAMU-CC backers’ behinds
- TSU was 26/35 from the FT line and certain players shot way above their heads. Lightning won’t strike twice.
Kansas Has the Ball
- Individual talent. Ochai Agbaji will be the best player on the floor, he shall not be stopped. David McCormack will eat inside – although Gresham will make a valiant effort before he ultimately fouls out.
- TSU is excellent guarding post-ups this season, but this isn’t a SWAC team they’re facing. McCormack is legit and will find success.
- Point guard play is perhaps a weakness? Remy Martin, Joe Yesufu, Dajuan Harris have all had their issues.
- This Kansas team runs. Texas Southern might try to run with it. That would be a bad idea. KU scores 1.117 PPP in transition, one of the best marks in the country.
- Texas Southern actually grades out pretty well in transition defense. They have athletic wings and guards and don’t need to send everyone to the glass to compete on the glass.
Final Thoughts
- If this game is as uptempo as it projects to be, KU is going to blow Texas Southern out of the wild.
- TSU will need to hoist desperation 3s and that simply will not work.
- Expect plenty of turnovers from TSU and KU run-outs for easy layups.
Picks: Kansas -22, OVER 144
8. San Diego State vs. 9. Creighton
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Give Creighton credit. The Jays lost their starting point guard, stud freshman Ryan Nembhard, to a gruesome wrist injury on February 23rd but held their own afterwards. Creighton went 3-3 down the stretch without Nembhard, beating UConn, Marquette, and Providence in the process.
- Greg McDermott did wizard’s work with this year’s roster, one that unquestionably had talent but one that was also one of the youngest in the country. The Jays ranked 341st in minutes continuity and 309th in experience. Most expected a rebuild year, instead Creighton finished 4th in the Big East.
- San Diego State was its usual dominant defensive self. Including the canceled 2020 Tournament, the Aztecs have now made four Dances in Brian Dutcher’s five seasons at the helm.
Creighton Has the Ball
- Creighton has survived six games without a true point guard, but that is going to catch up with them in the NCAA Tournament. The Jays have turned to freshmen Trey Alexander and Rati Andronikashvili for ball handling, which cannot be successful long term against stiffer competition.
- Creighton ranks 305th nationally in turnover rate. The lack of true point guard exacerbates that stat.
- San Diego State is going to smell blood in the water. The Aztecs boast the nation’s 2nd best defense and rank 29th nationally in turnover rate. Creighton ball handlers are in trouble.
- Contrary to years past, this year’s version of Creighton doesn’t rely on the 3-ball to score points. The Jays run a lot of offense through Ryan Kalkbrenner and Ryan Hawkins in the post and look to get their guards creating off pick-n-rolls. Hawkins and Kalkbrenner are both deadly roll partners – Kalkbrenner because of his size diving to the rim, and Hawkins because of his ability to knock down the 3.
- You cannot score inside the arc against San Diego State. The Aztecs rank 6th nationally in 2PFG% defense. A major reason why is big man Nathan Mensah, a 6’10” behemoth in the middle who is among the nation’s best shot-blockers.
- Mensah allows .606 PPP on post-ups this season, good for the 85th percentile in the country. His backup Aguek Arop is even better at 0.48 PPP.
San Diego State Has the Ball
- Offense is not SDSU’s strong suit. The Aztecs rank 157th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, which is the 7th worst of the 68 teams in this year’s Tournament.
- SDSU does have a guy who can get a bucket late in the clock, in crunch time, or whenever he wants. That’s Cal transfer Matt Bradley who is averaging 17.0 PPG and shooting over 41% from deep.
- I don’t think Trey Alexander or Alex O’Connell, or whoever Creighton tries, can guard Bradley 1-on-1
- Nembhard was a good defender, so his absence cuts both ways in this game.
- Bradley leads a talented backcourt featuring senior PG Trey Pulliam and sophomore Lamont Butler, who can be a secondary source of offense.
- Mensah gets a lot of touches on the block, but any potential offensive output he brings is negated by Kalkbrenner, who is also an elite shot blocker.
Final Thoughts
- Defense wins in the NCAA Tournament. SDSU might not be a potent offensive team, but they are the most dominant defensive team outside of Texas Tech in the country. While Creighton’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, SDSU’s is on a different tier.
- Without a PG Creighton’s expiration date is fast approaching. SDSU is an unforgiving opponent who will not yield an inch on their defensive end.
- This game is going to be UGLY and should play in the 50s barring any uncharacteristically hot shooting night. Creighton has had a few of those down the stretch – tough shot making has masked the Nembhard absence, but it just isn’t sustainable.
- SDSU for the cover and win. UNDER on the total.
Picks: San Diego State -2, UNDER 120
5. Iowa vs. 12. Richmond
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Iowa is a runaway freight train. They finished 1st in KenPom among Big Ten teams, which literally nobody saw coming in the preseason, even Fran “Daddy” McCaffery himself.
- The Hawkeyes are 12-2 in their last 14 games straight-up and 10-4 ATS.
- Iowa has an All-American and legitimate Player of the Year contender in Keegan Murray.
- Richmond was a disappointment all season after returning essentially everyone from last year’s squad. The Spiders floundered to a 6th-place A-10 finish but turned on the jets in the A-10 Tournament.
- Richmond starts four seniors and a potential NBA talent in Tyler Burton.
Richmond Has the Ball
- Chris Mooney is a disciple and user of the Princeton Offense. Mooney played at Princeton in the early 90s under Pete Carril.
- The Princeton Offense, in a nutshell, is designed to create mismatches. It inverts big men to the perimeter – particularly the top of the key – and allows them to be creators. Backdoors are staples in the offense.
- Richmond has a perfect center to run this attack in Grant Golden. He’s one of the best passing big men in the country and can knock down the 3 well enough to keep defenses honest.
- Iowa needs to stay disciplined to defend this properly. It is a very hard offense to stop if you aren’t accustomed to seeing it.
- As is tradition, Iowa’s defense isn’t great. It’s vulnerable to good offensive teams.
- Filip Rebraca, Iowa’s center, likely struggles to defend in space. But, Iowa can go small and become super mobile super quick.
- The Spiders do not turn the ball and rarely make stupid mistakes. Senior PG Jacob Gilyard is as steady as they come.
- This is big. Iowa led the Big Ten in turnover rate this season but will not be able to create the same mistakes against a very poised Spider backcourt.
- When in need of a late clock bucket, Burton is the man. He can create his own shot from anywhere on the floor.
- Richmond will not take advantage of Iowa’s relative weakness on the glass – the Spiders like to get back and stop transition.
Iowa Has the Ball
- Iowa boasts the second-best offense in the country. The Hawkeyes score 1.215 PPP, rank 3rd in TO rate, and shoot well from every inch of the floor.
- Murray is a matchup nightmare for any team – he is a matchup WORST NIGHTMARE for the Spiders, a team who struggles to defend and has a considerable dearth of athletes.
- Murray shoots over 40% from deep, but he can also put the ball on the deck and score in the post. If you double Murray, he has multiple high-level outside shooters to kick to.
- Point guard Jordan Bohannon, now in his 15th year of college, is deadly in crunch-time.
- Iowa loves to run. They are the fastest team in the Big Ten. The more they run, the more they score – Math!
- Richmond is not a good transition defensive team. Period. Even though they do not crash the glass, Iowa will still beat them routinely.
- Iowa is super balanced. In addition to Murray and shooters, Rebraca is a force on the offensive glass and capable back-to-the-basket scorer.
- Richmond ranks outside the top 100 in defense on an adjusted basis.
- Utah State scored 1.25 PPP against Richmond. Maryland scored 1.14 PPP. Miss State scored 1.14 PPP.
Final Thoughts
- Iowa is playing arguably the best basketball in the country right now. Richmond has no prayer in stopping them from scoring every time down the floor.
- Richmond should be able to score too, but the Spider offense pales in comparison to the Iowa attack.
- The Spiders’ experience and poise in the backcourt is a major point in their favor. Guards – particularly smart guards – are crucial in March. Gilyard and Co. can hang.
- Richmond needs to keep this game out of the open floor. Mooney is a solid coach, but he cannot have a 77-possession game like the non-con track meet against Iowa and expect to win.
- With efficiency likely being bananas here, I’ll take the OVER. Lean towards the Spiders on the side – double-digits feels like too many.
Picks: Richmond +10.5, OVER 151
4. Providence vs. 13. South Dakota State
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Providence has been called “lucky” by prognosticators all season long. What do we mean by that? It means that Providence is winning more games than it should based on predictive metrics. Providence has won a ton of close games, which – mathematically – is very difficult to do. Per KenPom, the Friars were the luckiest team in the country this season by a significant margin. They are the 3rd luckiest team in the 20-year history of his site.
- Lucky or not, Providence won the Big East regular season title and are objectively well-coached by Ed Cooley.
- South Dakota State became the first team ever to run the table in the Summit League. The Jackbunnies are a muscular 30-4.
- SDSU lost to Idaho. It also beat Wazzu on the road, SFA on the road, Nevada, and Bradley.
- SDSU brought essentially everyone back from last year’s squad and added talented freshman guard Zeke Mayo to replace M.I.A. Noah Freidel.
South Dakota State Has the Ball
- SDSU has the 12th best offense in the country. The Bunnies rank #1 in eFG%, #1 in 3P%, and #10 in 2P%. That is enough for me to blind bet them in a Tournament setting
- There are so many weapons on this roster. Big man Douglas Wilson is the star – he’s a destroyer in the post and mobile enough to beat slower big men off the bounce. Wilson draws the 2nd most fouls per 40 minutes in the country.
- Post-ups will be hard to come by. Providence is good defending on the block, particularly Nate Watson, who will have a size advantage.
- Baylor Scheierman shoots nearly 47% from deep. Charlie Easley shoots over 50% from deep. Alex Arians shoots nearly 50% from deep.
- Providence has some long wings to deter outside shooters. Al Durham is a good defender, Justin Minaya is as well. The Bunnies will be challenged more than have been in quite some time.
- SDSU runs a lot in transition, they spread the floor, and they feed Wilson and Luke Appel on the block.
- The Jackbunnies do everything well on offense and every single player grades out at “Excellent” on a PPP basis per Synergy.
- SDSU scores 1.197 PPP in transition, good for the 99th percentile in the country (Synergy).
- Providence grades out as a “poor” transition defense, allowing 1.09 PPP on the season
- SDSU pushes the pace in transition off defensive rebounds. The Friars aren’t a fantastic offensive rebounding team, but they will have the athleticism and physicality edge, which could lead to more second chance opportunities.
Providence Has the Ball
- Jared Bynum is a killer. He has the clutch late-game gene that you’re just born with. I fear him in an NCAA Tournament setting.
- Providence was scorching from deep in Big East play, making 37.8% of their 3PA. If they shoot that well against SDSU, they likely win and cover.
- SDSU will likely pack it in and dare Providence to be jump shooters
- If they can sucker the Friars into falling in love with the 3, SDSU has a fighter’s chance. Though Providence can shoot, their preferred game is not gunning.
- The Friars run Bynum off a lot of ball screens and play through Watson in the post. Watson will likely be featured heavily in an attempt to get Wilson in foul trouble.
- Wilson has an issue with foul trouble. He needs to stay disciplined.
- Providence attacks the rim and ranks 12th nationally in FTA rate.
- As a team SDSU is fantastic at defending without fouling. They rank 8th in the country in FTA rate allowed.
- Of course, SDSU is also a sieve inside. Opponents shoot 50.6% inside the arc against them (216th nationally) and 58.2% at the rim (157th)
Final Thoughts
- South Dakota State wants to run, which is usually worrisome for an underdog, particularly a mid-major. But, given how good SDSU is in transition and how poor Providence is, I think this is a good thing.
- SDSU will score plenty of points, they simply have too many weapons.
- Providence is one of the oldest teams in the country and are aces at closing out games.
- Ultimately, I’m riding with the Bunnies. It was a matchup I wanted all season long to prove 1) SDSU can hang with the power foes and 2) Providence’s run has been a little fluky.
- Is this spread insane? Yes, absolutely. But I’m taking the dog!
Picks: South Dakota State +2, OVER 149.5
6. LSU vs. 11. Iowa State
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- LSU fired head coach Will Wade following the end of the SEC Tournament. The move was a result of a notice of allegations sent down by the big bad NCAA.
- In Wade’s stead steps Kevin Nickelberry, former head coach of Howard and Hampton. Nickelberry amassed a 96-194 (57-87) record at Howard and a 49-44 (29-21) record at Hampton.
- After a 15-1 start, LSU finished the year on a 7-10 skid. An injury to Xavier Pinson didn’t help, but the Tigers haven’t looked sharp even with Pinson back in the fold.
- Iowa State was one of the biggest surprise teams in the country. Expected by many to finish in the basement of the Big 12, the Clones started the season 12-0 and racked up nine Q1 wins. First-year head coach TJ Otzelberger – formerly of South Dakota State and UNLV – has done an excellent job.
Iowa State Has the Ball
- Offense is not ISU’s strong suit. The Clones rank 151st in adjusted offensive efficiency, a result of poor shooting (253rd in 3P%) and poor ball handling (300th in TO rate).
- LSU ranks 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tigers are one of America’s best defensive teams. They have length and athletes all over the floor.
- The Tigers rank 2nd in the country in TO rate – Iowa State is in trouble here.
- ISU does it with the pass – they move the ball. Very few possessions end in isolation.
- Pass and cut offense run by freshman PG Tyrese Hunter. Former St. Bonaventure / Penn State transfer Izaiah Brockington has emerged into their star and a Big 12 All-Conference player.
- ISU’s shot selection is poor. They settle far too much for mid-range jumpers and rank just 304th in FGA% at the rim.
- Though ISU has some good shooter in Brockington, Caleb Grill, and Aljaz Kunc, two of their most prolific three-point shooters, Hunter and Gabe Kalscheur, shoot just 24.8% and 24% on the year.
- You can shoot the ball against LSU (you pretty much have to given their interior presence). Only 10 teams allow a higher 3PA rate on the season. If the Clones are hitting shots, they can win.
- LSU ranks 4th nationally in 3P% defense. Though LSU allows a ton of 3s, their length helps them be effective on close-outs.
- ISU slows it down on offense, they’re not looking to run. However, they do use turnovers on the other to spark their offense. ISU ranks 83rd nationally in %FGA in transition following a steal.
LSU Has the Ball
- LSU isn’t much different from ISU in that its offense is its weakness. LSU ranks 304th in TO rate, which is bad news bears against Iowa State.
- The Clones rank 6th nationally in defensive turnover rate
- Unlike ISU, LSU actually gets to the rim – they attack it with a fervor, especially their guards. LSU get sto the foul line frequently and also crashes the glass with reckless abandon. Offensive rebounding is a major avenue to scoring.
- ISU is vulnerable on the defensive glass. The Clones rank just 203rd in DR%.
- Cincy transfer Tari Eason has been a revelation this season. He might be unstoppable against ISU. Not many 6’8” guys have his athleticism and shooting ability.
- LSU wants to run. Their halfcourt offense sucks, but their transition offense is great. Like LSU, defense is the key to starting the break. Per Hoop-Math, LSU ranks 5th nationally in %FGA in transition following a steal.
- Iowa State gets back on defense. The Clones rank 28th in the country in %FGA allowed in transition.
- Iowa State is extremely scrappy on this end. They don’t have the athletes, but they have the heart and the positioning to make LSU’s life difficult in the halfcourt.
Final Thoughts
- LSU has the athleticism edge and the talent edge.
- Both teams are going to turn it over a ton and be a pain in one another’s ass defensively.
- Expect a super ugly game that stays low scoring.
- I think Nickelberry taking over for Wade hurts the Tigers. How can it help? At the very least it’s a distraction.
- Coaching edge = Otzelberger.
- UNDER is the best play in this game. Lean Clones on the side.
Picks: Iowa State +4, UNDER 127.5
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Colgate
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- This is Colgate’s third NCAA Tournament appearance in four seasons. During that span the Raiders are 54-12 in the Patriot League.
- Colgate took down Syracuse in the non-conference, smashing the Orange in the Carrier Dome by 15 points.
- Wisconsin is led by All-American and National Player of the Year contender Johnny Davis.
- The Badgers split the Big Ten regular season title after being picked by many to finish in the bottom half.
- Greg Gard has led Wisconsin to six NCAA Tournaments (including 2020). He’s made two Sweet Sixteens and lost once in the First Round.
- This is Wisconsin’s highest seed ever in the Gard era.
- This game is in Milwaukee… it’s the last tip of the night… get some drinks in, Cheeseheads.
Colgate Has the Ball
- Colgate can shoot and wants to shoot all the time. The Raiders rank #2 in the country in 3P% and 11th in eFG%. Only 20 teams in the country derive a higher percentage of their points from the 3-point line.
- Wisconsin guards the perimeter. The Badgers rank 59th in the country in 3PA rate allowed. However, the Badgers are not long. Colgate should get shots off without too many hiccups.
- Point guard Nelly Cummings has taken the mantle from Jordan Burns and has led the Colgate attack. He can score every which way on the floor. Colgate runs Cummings off ball screens and spreads the floor.
- Wisconsin’s ball screen defense grades out as just average. The Badgers also start freshman PG Chucky Hepburn on Cummings, unless big Brad Davison wants the assignment. Cummings should be fine against either.
- Shooters Tucker Richardson (35.8% from 3), Jack Ferguson (41.6%), Ryan Moffatt (45%), and Oliver Lynch-Daniels (53.7%) are about as dangerous as a supporting perimeter cast as they come.
- Big men Jeff Woodward (6’11) and Keegan Records (6’10) can hold their own inside.
- Don’t expect many second chances, though. Wisconsin controls the defensive glass, and 7-footers Steven Crowl and Chris Vogt, plus defensive stalwart Tyler Wahl, should keep the Colgate bigs at bay.
- Colgate is comfortable playing in the halfcourt or the open floor. Wisconsin’s defense is solid but not spectacular in both settings.
Wisconsin Has the Ball
- As always, the Swing is the Badgers’ default motion offense, a methodical halfcourt attack that looks to exploit mismatches in the post and get open shots or easy back-cuts.
- The kicker this year, though, and a primary why they’ve run considerably less of it in 2021-22, is Johnny Davis, a bona fide star who can create his own shot and murder defenders in isolation.
- Davis wasn’t 100% the last two games, but his minutes count against Michigan State (34) is a good sign for his status for the Tournament.
- The Badgers run Davis off a ton of ball screens in the half-court, and he, Hepburn, and Davison all grade out as very good to excellent in PnR situation per Synergy.
- Colgate is not good at defending ball screens. Wisconsin can exploit the Raiders’ defense with Davis all night long.
- Wisconsin also likes getting early post touches, especially to Tyler Wahl, who has been a revelation of a second banana to Davis this season. Wahl scored 1.00 PPP off post-ups, good for the 84th percentile nationally.
- Colgate has size in its interior, but it’s likely at a disadvantage still.
- Colgate’s defense was good against Patriot foes. It cannot stand up to a Big Ten team.
Final Thoughts
- Colgate’s shooting ability should keep them in this game. The Badgers aren’t looking to run, so this one could play somewhere in the mid-60s on a possession count basis. That’s good for Colgate – lower possessions, higher variance.
- Wisconsin isn’t the type of team to blow anyone out. They aren’t a lockdown defensive squad nor an elite , elite offensive squad.
- Wisconsin will not overwhelm Colgate with athleticism, which is what Colgate can struggle with.
- Colgate has been here before. They played Arkansas close last season. They played Tennessee close two years ago. They will not be intimidated.
Picks: Colgate +7.5, OVER 139
7. USC vs. 10. Miami FL
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Since 2016 Andy Enfield is 7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with over a 5-point cover margin. That doesn’t even include his run to the Sweet Sixteen with the 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast Fighting Dunk Cities.
- USC started the season 13-0. During that span they played a total of one (1) NCAA Tournament team, the San Diego State Aztecs.
- Miami FL made an unexpected run to the top of the ACC standings, finishing 14-6 in conference play and earning its first NCAA Tourney bid since 2018.
- Jimmy Larranaga has lost in the First Round in two straight Tourney appearances.
- Like USC, Miami played against one (1) NCAA Tournament team in the non-conference, the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Miami FL Has the Ball
- Larranaga’s best offensive team since his 2016 Sweet Sixteen squad
- Guard-heavy attack. Kam McGusty turned into a bona fide star in his 5th collegiate season. The former OU transfer earned 1st Team All-ACC honors, averaging 17.6 PPG.
- DePaul transfer Charlie Moore has been excellent running point. Sophomore Isaiah Wong has a bright future.
- They do not turn the ball over. 8th best turnover rate in the country.
- This doesn’t really matter for USC. The Trojans don’t rely on forcing turnovers to win games. One of lowest defensive turnover rates nationally.
- They run a bit and are the best team in the country in transition on a PPP basis – 1.218 PPP.
- USC just average stopping transition. 1.006 PPP, 42nd percentile.
- USC does limit opportunities to a decent degree.
- Lots of ball screens for the talented guards. Pretty balanced shot distribution.
- USC’s ball screen defense is just average from a PPP standpoint
- USC mixes in some zone, which Miami has had difficulty cracking this season
- It is nearly impossible to score inside the arc against USC. The Trojans are the nation’s 4th biggest team and are long at every position. Only one team has allowed a lower 2PFG% this season.
USC Has the Ball
- The offensive glass will be a source of points for the Trojans. They have a big size edge on the Canes and rank 26th nationally in OR%.
- Miami FL ranks just 266th in DR%
- USC’s offense isn’t great. They can get hot and 6’9” pseudo-PG Drew Peterson is a killer in crunch time. Isaiah Mobley is a matchup nightmare for Miami FL due to his size, ability to shoot, drive, and score on the block.
- USC is among the nation’s worst FT shooting teams. The Trojans have blown games and covers due to this fact alone. USC is vulnerable in late game close-out situations.
- Miami FL is especially poor defending the perimeter and outside shooters. They don’t have the length to bother longer guards like USC has.
- This is Larranaga’s worst defensive team ever at Miami FL
Final Thoughts
- This is strength-on-strength on one end and weakness-on-weakness on the other end.
- Miami FL can shoot, but they do need to get to the bucket to score consistently. You cannot do that against USC, so the Canes will be extra reliant on jump-shooting, which will be feast or famine.
- USC’s offense isn’t great but anybody can score on this version of Miami FL.
- The Trojans have a major size advantage and should be able to make up for a lack of shooting / offensive flow with getting second chance opportunities.
- USC is going to handle business in this one. The total could go either way, but I will lean towards the UNDER. Miami FL cannot start its break prematurely with the threat of USC offensive boards. That may force the Canes out of its usual transition chances. Advantage USC and advantage UNDER.
Picks: USC -1.5, UNDER 139.5
2. Auburn vs. 15. Jacksonville State
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Auburn was once a frontrunner for the national title and a popular pick among talking heads to cut down the net. The Tigers sat 22-1 (10-0) on February 5th and looked downright unstoppable.
- Since then, the Tigers have looked pedestrian. Cracks in the armor have started to show, particularly away from the friendly confines of Auburn Arena. Auburn is 5-4 since February 5th.
- Jacksonville State likely feels somewhat embarrassed to be in the Tournament. The Gamecocks are the only automatic qualifier who failed to win their conference tournament. Thanks to a ridiculous rule that says teams transitioning to Division I cannot participate in the NCAAT for four years, Bellarmine had to forfeit its rightful place to the ASUN regular season champs.
- JSU is no pushover – they lost by just six points at Alabama in the non-con portion of the slate – but they haven’t played a top 120 team in the 20 games since.
Jacksonville State Has the Ball
- JSU is a dangerous underdog because it can shoot, and it plays at a slow tempo. Less possessions equals higher variance and a higher chance for a Cinderella to pull a massive upset.
- The Cocks are the nation’s 11th best 3-point shooting. A quartette of guards lead the way in Darian Adams (36.6%), Jalen Gibbs (41.1%), Jalen Finch (35.6%), and Demaree King (44.9%).
- JSU needs to be able to shoot, because they will get nothing inside against Walker Kessler, perhaps the best defensive player in the country. Kessler averages more blocks by himself than most teams in the country.
- JSU also has a rare asset not often found in the mid-to-low major ranks: they have a legit power-caliber post player. Brandon Huffman, a 6’10” 255-pound center, started his career at North Carolina where he was buried behind the likes of Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks. Huffman is one of the best rebounders at the mid-major level and a capable post defender / shot blocker.
- While Huffman is nice to have, he’s no match for Kessler.
- Drive and dish is the name of the game. Adams and Finch are both capable creators who can work off ball screens and find open teammates on the perimeter.
- Auburn’s guards are lightning quick, and their wings are long. Ball security has not been JSU’s strong suit, so don’t be surprised if we see a smattering of Wendell Green and KD Johnson run-outs.
- JSU rarely gets out in transition; they are primarily a halfcourt-focused attack.
Auburn Has the Ball
- Auburn will want an up-and-down game. The Tigers like to run, particularly off turnovers, and they’ll want to this contest to have as many possessions as possible. More possessions = less variance = higher chance the better team wins.
- Auburn is super talented, but sometimes it’s to its detriment. By that I mean, guys like top 5 NBA Draft pick Jabari Smith, Johnson, and Green can get off a look any time they want that they are capable of hitting. The problem is, a lot of times those looks are terrible shot choices. Green and Johnson in particular can shoot Auburn out of games.
- This is exactly what JSU wants Auburn to do: take bad shots.
- The Cocks pack it in on defense – they dare opposing teams to be jump shooters, and unfortunately that is something Green and Johnson will happily oblige.
- JSU ranks 340th nationally in 3PA rate allowed, and with Huffman roaming the paint it will at least be challenging for Auburn to find good shots inside the arc – especially if they aren’t patient.
- Auburn is at its best attacking the rim or playing through Smith or Kessler in the post. Johnson and Green can get past anyone off ball screens, they just need to take good shots and make sound choices.
- Jabari Smith is a mismatch. Kayne Henry likely gets the assignment, but he’s three inches shorter and not near the talent. Expect the Gamecocks to throw some zone at the Tigers to compensate.
Final Thoughts
- From a pure talent perspective Auburn wins this matchup twice over. But the Tigers have not been a smart team down the stretch. They will take bad shots and be the jump shooting team JSU wants them to be.
- JSU still might not be able to cover even with a jump-shooting Auburn. The Cocks need to take care of the ball and make shots over a long perimeter. They will find nothing inside the arc.
- Auburn will try to control the pace in this game, but it’s been dragged down into the mud before. South Florida held the game to 65 possessions (and almost won). The Loyola game played 63 possessions. Kentucky had 63 as well. If JSU can keep this game under 65 possessions and shoots its normal 3P%, covering the massive number should not be an issue.
- Let’s not discount Bruce Pearl, either. He has a Final Four appearance under his belt and no doubt had some choice words for his guards after the Texas A&M loss. Perhaps Auburn responds and goes back to dominating everyone like its did for 2/3 of the year..