- Ky McKeon

Key Returners: Joey Hauser, Gabe Brown, AJ Hoggard, Marcus Bingham, Malik Hall, Julius Marble, Mady Sissoko
Key Losses: Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts, Josh Langford, Foster Loyer, Thomas Kithier
Key Newcomers: Tyson Walker (Northeastern), Max Christie, Jaden Akins, Pierre Brooks

Lineup:

Outlook: The 2020-21 season will go down as arguably the strangest in college basketball history. On top of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic we saw unprecedented struggles across Blue Blood programs, as Duke and Kentucky both missed the Big Dance for the first time in a billion years. Michigan State was not immune to the Blue Blood virus, narrowly avoiding its first missed Tournament since 1997 and sneaking into a First Four spot. Last year featured Tom Izzo’s first sub-.500 finish in Big Ten play since 1997 and his worst KenPom rank (64th) in Mr. Pomeroy’s 25-year database. MSU’s program history under Izzo speaks for itself, so a bounce-back should be expected in 2021-22, but this might be the lowest preseason expectations ole Tom has faced since the beginning of his career in East Lansing.

Questions abound about this Michigan State team. Brendan Quinn over at The Athletic wrote up a nice piece this offseason on the Spartans, in which he pointed out Dane Fife’s departure to Indiana was the first coaching staff change in ten years under Izzo. While it’s not the exodus seen at Illinois this offseason, Fife was viewed as a major candidate for a Power 6 coaching job and one of the best assistants in the land. How that ultimately affects MSU this season remains to be seen, but it’s a significant personnel event that should be considered in the overall context of previewing the Spartans.

On the court, the obvious hole needed to be plugged is at the point guard spot, which was an absolute disaster in 2020-21, when Rocket Watts, once hailed as a top-50 player by every Spartan fanboy in the country heading into last season, failed to live up to expectations. At the other end of the spectrum, Izzo still doesn’t have a good solution at the 5, which is a far cry from the frontcourt dominance we’ve become accustomed to over the past decade-plus. Sparty’s offense also needs a shot in the arm after ranking 13th in the Big Ten in adjusted efficiency and 98th nationally (KenPom). A severe lack of shooting and ball security made this one of the tougher teams to watch in the country at times on this end of the floor. On the other side of the ball, MSU wasn’t bad by national standards in 2020-21, but it was sub-par for program standards. The one adjective that kept popping into my head while watching this team last season was “SOFT”. Sparty was soft last year, particularly on the interior. Now with Aaron Henry, a Big Ten All-Defensive Team member in 2020-21, departing, is there truly an expectation for them to improve on this end?

That’s a ton of questions to answer, especially for a team looking to compete in arguably the deepest and most competitive conference in the country. Let’s start with the point guard problem.

Izzo turned to the transfer portal for his PG need, bringing in former Northeastern Husky and 1st Team All-CAA honoree Tyson Walker. Walker was by far the best player on his team last season, and that’s even a massive understatement – Northeastern literally bled when he was off the floor in 2020-21. Here’s how Northeastern fared according to Hoop-Explorer when Walker sat:

The Huskies scored just 81.5 points per 100 possessions on an adjusted basis, which is absolutely brutal. Clearly Walker won’t need to fill that type of role in East Lansing, but he will be counted on to be a steady ball handler, creator, and scorer. Can he do that consistently against Big Ten competition?

Walker played five games against “Tier A & B” competition last season, per KenPom.

He scorched Tier B (UMass twice and Georgia) to the tune of 22.7 PPG but wasn’t quite as good against Tier A schools. He averaged just 8.5 PPG against West Virginia and Syracuse before putting the hurt on UNC by pouring in 27 points on 8/15 shooting.

Walker is an upgrade from Watts due to his shooting ability and knack for attacking out of the pick-n-roll, but Sparty fans shouldn’t be expecting an All-Big Ten campaign. His greatest contribution might actually come on the defensive end. While not very big, Walker is a sticky on-ball defender who has ranked among the nation’s best in steals per game and steal rate the past two seasons. Last year, he captured the CAA Defensive Player of the Year award after leading the conference in pilfers.

Behind Walker will be a combination of second-year PG AJ Hoggard and top 60 4-star freshman Jaden Akins. Hoggard, a former 4-star recruit himself, is a burly, lumbering lead guard at 6’3” 220 lbs. He struggled in limited minutes last season primarily due to his complete inability to shoot the ball. While he was able to find success bullying smaller guards into the lane on drives, opponents could sag off him and clog up the Spartan offense. Akins offers a little more in the shooting department, and he also offers a lot more quickness and explosiveness. The Ypsilanti product could leapfrog Hoggard in the PG depth chart if the latter continues struggling with his shot and ball security.

Sparty’s frontcourt had its fair share of issues last season as well, and Joey Hauser should be thanking Rocket Watts for taking attention away from the egg he laid last year. Hauser came into East Lansing as a heralded transfer from Marquette, a player expected to be a go-to option offensively. Instead, Hauser lost his starting gig in early February. While he proved to be a gifted passer and potential offensive focal point at the top of the key, Hauser struggled taking care of the ball and more importantly couldn’t guard anyone on the defensive end. Hauser is at his best functioning as a pick-and-pop threat, where he scored a blistering 1.25 PPP last season, per Synergy.

Hauser’s defense simply will not improve a whole lot from last season, so he’ll need to assume more of an alpha presence on the offensive end of the floor or risk once again relinquishing minutes to other Spartan forwards.

6’7” combo-forward Malik Hall was the benefactor of Hauser’s struggles last season. He’s been pegged by many (including Brendan Quinn) as a breakout candidate in 2021-22. Hall averaged 14.5 PPG on 11/14 shooting the last two games of the season and is one of the few Spartans on the roster I would describe as actually “physical”. While not a creator, Hall can be very effective as a cutter or catch-and-drive threat. His ability to score in the post, keep possessions alive on the glass, and hit the occasional outside shot will make it difficult for Izzo to keep him off the floor.

As alluded to earlier, MSU had an issue at center last season. Marcus Bingham is an excellent shot-blocker by any metric, but he just isn’t strong enough or skilled enough to have a truly profound impact on the game. Sparty was bullied in the post last season, allowing .904 PPP on post-ups (per Synergy), which ranked in the 21st percentile nationally. There’s more to interior defense than shot blocking, and Bingham offers very little on the other end of the floor. In Bingham’s stead, Izzo could turn to either Julius Marble, an undersized yet strong 5-man, or former top 50 recruit Mady Sissoko, a raw prospect who has plenty of potential to be effective with a little development. All three players are “fine” options, which might cut it in a lesser league but raises concerns in the Big Ten.

To address last year’s shooting woes, Izzo brings in 5-star sniper Max Christie, a dynamic and super-smooth McDonald’s All-American who promises to compete for a starting spot from day one. Christie’s form is gorgeous, and the way he moves on the floor suggests he’ll be an effective piece to the Spartan rotation. Question marks have been raised about his defensive ability and the level of competition he faced in high school, but I’m a believer that Christie will make a positive impact in his first season.

Gabe Brown also returns to stabilize the wing corps and shooting effort. Brown is a big wing who can play multiple positions, but he’ll need to assert himself more in 2021-22. Thus far Brown has essentially been a deadly spot-up threat, attempting 81 3s compared to 57 2s and 17 FTs last season. When you post a true shooting percentage of 61.3%, you need to shoot the ball more. Brown’s lack of athleticism and explosiveness off the bounce limits his ability to create, but he can use his shooting ability to his advantage better this season to open up the Sparty offense. Brown and Christie will be bolstered in the wing rotation by 4-star Pierre Brooks, a Detroit product and the #1 player in the state of Michigan. Brooks has a college-ready frame and can score from anywhere on the floor. While he may not start right away, he should carve out a rotation spot in some fashion this season.

Bottom Line: There are two views when evaluating Michigan State’s outlook for the 2021-22 season.

The pessimistic view sees a similar roster as last year’s debacle minus its best player in Aaron Henry. The added freshmen are perhaps overrated, and Tyson Walker’s mid-major excellence doesn’t translate to the Big Ten. Key assistant coach Dane Fife is gone. Gabe Brown remains a catch-and-shoot role player, and the frontcourt remains, well, soft.

The optimistic view – which is the one I lean more towards – sees Tom Izzo, a coach who has consistently lifted his program to the top of the ranks nationally, with a roster burgeoning with potential. Joey Hauser rights the path of his offensive trajectory; Malik Hall evolves into an elite Swiss Army knife player; Walker’s game translates; the shooting, led by Christie, improves by leaps and bounds; somebody in the three-man 5-spot rotation emerges into an above-average force at both ends of the floor.