-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Jermaine Bishop, R Sr., Norfolk State
Coach of the Year: LeVelle Moton, North Carolina Central
Newcomer of the Year: Jermaine Bishop, R Sr., Norfolk State
Freshman of the Year: Khalil Robinson, Howard

Tier 1

1. North Carolina Central

Key Returners: Randy Miller Jr., Jibri Blount, Jordan Perkins
Key Losses: Raasean Davis, Zacarry Douglas, Larry McKnight, Reggie Gardner
Key Newcomers: Ty Graves (BC / SLU), Evan Clayborne (Cleveland St.), CJ Keyser (Wichita St.), Michael Melvin (JUCO), Justin Whatley (East Carolina), Jamir Moultrie (La Salle), Deven Palmer (JUCO), Kobby Ayetey (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: North Carolina Central has to be starting to frustrate the rest of the contenders in the MEAC. The Eagles have made three straight NCAA Tournaments (and four of the last six), and the past two representatives have been underwhelming regular season squads who got hot in the MEAC Tournament (similar to the MAAC/Iona situation). As such, this has become NCCU’s conference to lose, and with a loaded crop of newcomers joining three key returning pieces, LeVelle Moton’s squad once again will be a nightmare for all MEAC adversaries.  

We’ll start on the defensive end, where Moton is one of the more man-to-man-inclined coaches in a zone-heavy league. Playing a lot of zone in the MEAC makes sense: the rosters generally lack outside shooting, and thus forcing them into launching jumpers is a great way to frustrate opposing attacks. Moton, though, puts more responsibility on individual defenders’ shoulders, and the presence of Jordan Perkins on the ball and Wichita State transer C.J. Keyser on the wing is a lockdown duo. The dominant rebounding (and strangely double-lettered) frontcourt of Raasean Davis and Zacarry Douglas departs, leaving versatile four-man Jibri Blount to man the paint alongside several transfers. Evan Clayborne is the likely starter, a stout rebounder who can bring similar rim protection as Davis, with Justin Whatley adding a rangier option.

Offensively, personnel dictated that Moton play through the post more often than he is accustomed to doing so. The graduated Davis was a monstrosity in the paint, dominating many of the smaller, thinner MEAC frontlines en route to nearly averaging a double-double. Post ups were essentially nonexistent in NCCU’s offense prior to Davis’s arrival in summer 2017, but Moton smartly let the big dog eat while he had him:

With Davis gone, the offense will once again become far more perimeter-oriented; Blount is the leader in returning post possessions with a laughable seven (Davis had 134 last year).

The backcourt is incredibly potent, too. Perkins has started 44 games over his first two seasons and found his groove late last year after his attitude needed a “reality check,” per Moton, and he’s a highly-skilled passer who has ranked 20th and 15th in the country in assist rate over his first two years. Meanwhile, Randy Miller showed tremendous shooting touch last year (38% from three, 80% from the FT line), and he’ll be joined by another potent perimeter threat in Ty Graves, who will finally get on the court again after beginning his career at Boston College in 2016-17. If he’s locked in, he can be an all-conference level player immediately. Ditto for Keyser, a superb athlete who will be devastating in transition. Junior college guards Michael Melvin and Deven Palmer add ball-handling and perimeter shooting, respectively.  

Blount can also be a matchup problem at forward as a savvy passer that can stretch his range out to the three-point arc. Few foes in the MEAC will have someone big enough and quick enough to guard him; he averaged double-figures despite playing just 21.9 minutes per game last year. Clayborne and Whatley will be expected to attack the glass hard; Moton’s teams always excel at securing second shot opportunities.

Bottom Line: It’s a genuine upset that Moton is still toiling at NCCU in the MEAC given all his success there, but it is his alma mater, and perhaps he just hasn’t been presented with an enticing enough offer. As it is, he continues to make hay on the waiver wire, with Graves, Keyser, and Clayborne all likely to be impact contributors immediately. If they are, the Eagles may be flying atop the MEAC and into the NCAA Tournament once again – possibly even avoiding Dayton this time.

2. Bethune-Cookman

Key Returners: Cletrell Pope, Malik Maitland, Leon Redd, Houston Smith, Wali Parks, Isaiah Bailey (injury)
Key Losses: Shawntrez Davis, Mark Gordon, Dondre Duffus, Soufiyane Diakite
Key Newcomers: Joe French, Zen Goodridge (JUCO), Jordan Preaster, Alex Ismail (JUCO), Justyn King

Lineup:

Outlook: Picked by many as a top MEAC contender entering last year (including #2 by the Weave and #1 by Blue Ribbon), Bethune-Cookman was instead crushed by injuries. Star guard Isaiah Bailey tore his ACL in the season’s third game, double-double machine Soufiyane Diakite was in and out of the lineup all year, and Leon Redd missed the rest of the season after featuring in just 13 contests. Despite all that adversity, though, Coach Ryan Ridder guided the Wildcats to a 9-7 finish in the league, and the experience gained by the rest of the roster should make this season’s version that much more potent.

Ridder’s teams play at a blinding pace: his first two B-CU teams ranked 3rd and 18th nationally in tempo, and that will continue this year. He knows how important getting easy points in transition is for a team that mostly lacks outside shooting, and with Bailey and Malik Maitland both back this season to handle the ball (both of whom received NCAA waivers for an extra year of eligibility), the Wildcats will keep the gas pedal nailed to the floor.

The other easy routes to points are via the offensive glass (put backs) and at the free throw line. Ridder smartly directs his teams to repeatedly attack the hoop, and there’s no better piece for that than Cletrell Pope, a Hungry, Hungry Hippo on the glass who gobbles up every rebound in his general vicinity. He ranked second in the country in total offensive rebounds with 134, and along with veteran forward Wali Parks, freshman Justyn King, and JUCO transfers Alex Ismail and Zen Goodridge, he’ll give Ridder another potent frontcourt. The Synergy breakdowns of their offensive play types show just how important transition and the offensive glass are for the Wildcats:

With Bailey out for the season last year, Maitland really emerged into an alpha offensively, seeing his usage rate balloon from 19.9% to 25.4%. Now that Bailey is back, Ridder will need to make sure his two backcourt meal tickets coexist properly, but they’re different enough players (Maitland a 5’9 blur, Bailey a 6’6 physical wing) that it shouldn’t be an issue.

On the other end of the floor, the Wilcats succeeded by using Maitland’s quickness to harass opposing ball-handlers and extending out on shooters to force them into the more difficult midrange area. B-CU foes took 30.2% of their shots from the midrange, 44th-highest in the country, and that kind of shot distribution will always play even better in a league where most teams – like the Wildcats themselves – want to live at the rim. It helps to have Pope, who won the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in his first Division 1 campaign. Veterans Redd and Houston Smith, as well as freshmen Joe French and Jordan Preaster, will be important defensive pieces, and the freshmen (both 6’5) add an extra dose of length to help in challenging shots.

Bottom Line: Bailey’s return to health and veteran stars like Pope and Maitland make Bethune-Cookman a clear threat atop the MEAC. Ridder tied for the conference title in his first campaign in charge, going 12-4 in 2018, and barring another plague of the injury bug, the Wildcats should find themselves in that echelon again. From that point, it just becomes a matter of someone finally knocking off MEAC Madness monster NC Central.

3. Norfolk State

Key Returners: Steven Whitley, Kyonze Chavis
Key Losses: Nic Thomas (grad transfer), Jordan Butler, Mastadi Pitt (transfer), Derrik Jamerson, Alex Long
Key Newcomers: Jermaine Bishop (SLU), Kashaun Hicks (CCSU), Devante Carter (JUCO), Daryl Anderson, Spirit Ricks (JUCO), Tyrese Jenkins, Efstratios Kalogerias (JUCO), Yoro Sidibe, Nyzaiah Chambers

Lineup:

Outlook: Norfolk State has been the MEAC’s most consistent program over the past two decades, winning double-digit conference games 16 times in 20 seasons since the turn of the century and never finished below .500 in league play in that span. Robert Jones has continued that remarkable run, winning at least 11 MEAC games in each of his six seasons, but he faces his most daunting challenge yet this year. The Spartans return just 24.9% of their minutes, per BartTorvik.com, which ranks them 344th in that metric, with only one player who started more than four games. Thankfully, a massive crop of newcomers offers promise, and Jones has simply been too much of a metronome while in charge to knock the Spartans down far.

Jones will play fast, and with strength of his team being in the backcourt, that makes sense. Redshirt senior point guard Steven “Diesel” Whitley ranked 40th in the country in assist rate last year, and his ability to grab-and-go off the defensive glass keys the transition attack. He’ll play alongside St. Louis transfer Jermaine Bishop, a rising star in the Atlantic 10 before a Title IX investigation derailed his career. He may be the best player in the conference the moment he steps on the floor, and he and Whitley should form a potent duo that can both score and create for others. Kyonze Chavis and Joe Bryant Jr. are the most experienced players outside of Whitley, but they’ll need to beat out JUCO guard Devante Carter for minutes; Carter is a more talented but volatile option.

Jones also brought in a stable of players in the 6’6 to 6’7 range, lending a ton of lineup optionality at the wing and forward spots. Freshman Daryl Anderson will need to help replace the shooting void following Derrik Jamerson’s graduation, while fellow rookie Tyrese Jenkins and CCSU grad transfer Kashaun Hicks exemplify the versatility that Jones has come to value so highly. Jenkins is my pick for exciting freshman on the roster; he’s 6’7 with guard skills, and he put up 21 & 8 in a victory in the 2018 state final.

The biggest concern is in the paint, where Norfolk has been fairly dominant on the defensive end, ranking in the conference’s top two in block rate for each of the past five seasons. The departed Jordan Butler was a huge part of that run of dominance, and sophomore Chris Ford will have to ascend into a much larger role without him and Alex Long. JUCO transfers Efstratios Kalogerias and Spirit Ricks are more of the “face up, pick-and-pop” variety of bigs and the versatile Hicks is 3/4 ‘tweener. The best shot-blocker on the roster is raw freshman Nyzaiah Chambers, and he may play for that reason alone.

Defensively, Norfolk is going to pressure the ball, which either leads to turnovers or trips to the line for the Spartans’ opponents. The defense ranked 53rd in the country in forced turnover rate last year, but just 339th in opposing free throw rate, so if you take care of the ball, you’ll get plenty of chances for free points.

Bottom Line: If only looking at rosters, there’s very little reason beyond Whitley and Bishop to keep Norfolk in the league’s top half. But there’s more to the game than that, and Jones is a proven winner – as is the entire Norfolk State program, year after year after year. Jones should be able to form the pieces into a coherent contender once again, keeping the Spartans in the league’s top tier.

4. North Carolina A&T

Key Returners: Kameron Langley, Ronald Jackson, Andre Jackson, Tyrone Lyons
Key Losses: Milik Gantz, Terry Harris, Quavius Copeland, Aaren Edmead, Ibrahim Sylla, Amari Hamilton
Key Newcomers: Kwe Parker (JUCO/Tennessee), Tyler Maye (JUCO/VCU), Devin Haygood (Youngstown St.), Fred Cleveland, Elijah Joyner (redshirt), Shayne Scruggs, Harry Morrice

Lineup:

Outlook: Jay Joyner has already earned a “coaching bump” after the last two years (meaning I’ll pick NC A&T a couple spots higher than the roster would seem to warrant). The Aggies have gone 24-8 in the MEAC over that span, and he’s done it with teams that have ranked 341st and 296th in minutes continuity, per KenPom. He has displayed two of the most important traits a MEAC coach can possess: a willingness to bring in players from anywhere and everywhere, plus a flexible scheme that he can tailor to the guys he actually has each season.

To the first point – NC A&T has brought in four-year recruits (like Kameron Langley and Tyrone Lyons), JUCO transfers (like Andre Jackson and Ronald Jackson – no relation), and Division I transfers (like Aaren Edmead and Terry Harris), and that’s continued with this year’s newcomer class that features four freshmen, two junior college transfers, and a Division I transfer.

And to illustrate the second point, the little graphic below shows a few key statistics that changed drastically over the past two years, both of which were successful. In 2017-18, Joyner had stout bigs in Femi Olujobi and Davaris McGowens, smartly playing through them and attacking the rim. But last year, the strength was in the backcourt, so he extended pressure and utilized a more guard-oriented offense:

This year’s team should blend both of the past two approaches. Langley is the straw that stirs the drink at point guard, a tremendous passer who ranked 4th in the entire country in assist rate last year. He excels at setting up teammates in transition, and that should suit players like Ronald Jackson, a mobile big man, and Kwe Parker, a dynamite athlete who began his career at Tennessee. Joyner can also unleash some dual point guard looks with the addition of Tyler Maye, a former VCU guard. Andre Jackson struggled last year after arriving from junior college, but his shooting will be vital for a team that loses nearly all of its three-point production.  

The frontcourt will lack the bulk of the Olujobi/McGowens pairing from two years, but Ronald Jackson and Youngstown State transfer Devin Haygood both get after the offensive glass and can run in the open floor. Additionally, Lyons will slide between the two forward spots, creating mismatches with his versatility. Joyner weaponizes Langley’s vision in the half court, as well, with a bevy of off-ball cutting action, and the Aggies’ forwards should fill those lanes nicely. Joyner will need one of Webster Filmore, Shayne Scruggs, or 6’11 Scotsman Harry Morrice to emerge for depth purposes, with the hope being that Morrice can replace some of the shot-blocking that departs with Ibrahim Sylla.

Bottom Line: Langley is probably the best point guard in the conference, and with Joyner at the helm, that combination should remain high in the standings. Just how high NC A&T finishes will depend on players like Parker, Maye, and the Jacksons, and whether or not they can emerge into true offensive options. If all else fails, Joyner can also turn to his kid, redshirt freshman Elijah Joyner, who should add outside shooting. The defense should continue to pressure opponents, as Langley, Maye, and Parker should be able to attack opponents with quickness and strength. Ultimately, with Joyner at the helm, I don’t feel comfortable placing NC A&T outside the top tier.   

Tier 2

5. South Carolina State

Key Returners: Damani Applewhite, Jahmari Etienne, Ian Kinard, Ozante Fields, Rayshawn Neal
Key Losses: Janai Raynor-Powell, Lavar Harewood (grad transfer), Allen Hatchett (transfer)
Key Newcomers: TaShombe Riley (South Alabama), Zach Sellers (Savannah St.), Tariq Simmons (JUCO), Isaiah Felder (Savannah St.), Trushaun Moorer (JUCO), Rashaan Edwards

Lineup:

Outlook: South Carolina State enters a massive year for the program and, more specifically, Coach Murray Garvin, who has struggled to build momentum in Orangeburg but has what may be his best team back this year. Four of the top five (and five of the top seven) scorers return, and with the MEAC as wide open as ever, Garvin will have high hopes of intruding on the league’s upper tier. That also means pressure, though, and Garvin may feel some heat if this team flounders.

The Bulldogs are consistently dragged down by their defense, which has accumulated the abysmal rankings of 348th, 347th, and 348th the past three seasons, pe KenPom’s AdjDE. The culprit? Interior defense. Opponents have absolutely torched them at the rim, as the lack of size and rim protection has been repeatedly exposed. With every notable frontcourt player back this year, personnel groupings are going to be almost identical, so unless Garvin is able to tweak something schematically that (ideally) heavily limits the amount of shots conceded at that range, this will continue to be a flaw.

The one guy that could change that is JUCO transfer Elafayette Stone, a 6’10, 325-pound behemoth who could be a difference-maker if he can adapt to the speed of the game. Otherwise, Garvin might be smart to pack the paint more and force bricky MEAC opponents to prove they can hit perimeter shots.

What those frontcourt veterans do bring, though, are scoring and rebounding in spades. Damani Applewhite is one of the best individual players in the conference, an active interior player who has gotten demonstrably better every season. He started to experiment from three-point land early last year), but eventually abandoned it in favor of setting up a permanent residence at the free throw line (took 219 on the year, including a 128 in 16 MEAC games). Even if the jumper doesn’t develop, he’ll be an all-conference level contributor through whom Garvin can run the offense. Alongside him, Ian Kinard blossomed late last year (13.4ppg, 6.4rpg over the last five games), and Ozante Fields is a perfect “know your role” forward who gobbles up rebounds and makes his free throws.

The big additions are in the backcourt, where Bulldog boomerang Tashombe Riley (averaged 11.4ppg and 5.2rpg for SC State in 2016-17) returns after a failed year abroad at South Alabama. Possibly even more important is former Savannah State point guard Zacchaus Sellers, who fled his old school as it sinks to Division II this year. He knows the league landscape well, and he’ll be crucial in creating shots out of Garvin’s many pick-and-rolls.

Veteran Jahmari Etienne should start and provide floor spacing around that action, while Rayshawn Neal provides some point guard insurance if Sellers doesn’t adjust well to a more civilized offense (Savannah State’s was a three-point anarchy). Isaiah Felder (another Savannah State transfer!) and freshman Rahsaan Edwards will challenge for minutes, as well.  

Bottom Line: Applewhite, Riley, and Sellers should form a strong nucleus, and the Bulldogs’ offense should carry it into the middle of the standings, at the very least. The higher-end projections here hinge on the defense, where Garvin must find a way to prevent the lay-up lines that past seasons have produced. Ultimately, it’s hard to move this team ahead of the primary powers that be in the league, despite what looks like a strong roster on paper.

6. Morgan State

Key Returners: Stanley Davis, Sherwyn Devonish, Kyson Rawls, David Syfax, Isaiah Burke
Key Losses: Martez Cameron
Key Newcomers: Troy Baxter (FGCU), Troy Holston (St. Joe’s), Stephon Fisher (JUCO), Lagio Grantsaan (JUCO), Peter Sorber, Cameron Shaw, Victor Okafor (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Morgan State administration opted to hop off the Todd Bozeman Roller Coaster this offseason, declining to renew the contract of the longest-tenured coach remaining in the MEAC. The ups and downs of Bozeman’s term in charge became mostly downs over the last five seasons, as the Bears limped to a 33-47 league record with only one above-.500 campaign. Bozeman’s collegiate coaching career includes several controversies

Bozeman’s offenses the primary cause of his downfall on the court. His complete apathy towards several modern basketball staples – the three-point shot, pick-and-rolls, eschewing the midrange – made it nearly impossible for the Bears to assemble a competent attack:

Broadus has spent time under both John Thompson III and Mark Turgeon, meaning he should at least add some interesting wrinkles: cuts from JTIII’s Princeton system, mixing in some PnR and perimeter jumpers from Turgeon. Of course, he’ll need players who can play in such schemes for them to effective.

Sophomore guard Sherwyn Devonish should take over full-time point guard duties following Martez Cameron’s graduation, and he’s a quick little jitterbug who can get to the rim and create for others. He and Kyson Rawls will play the bulk of minutes at PG; fellow sophomore Isaiah Burke can handle the ball a little bit as well, but he’s best served in a scoring role.

The larger concern is shooting. Burke and guard Kyson Rawls have reputations as shooters, though Rawls struggled mightily last year. Big man David Syfax can provide a stretch element, but by necessity, Broadus’s approach may need to be more rim-centric – especially given some of the athletes this team has.

Stanley Davis is the leading returning scorer, an aggressive wing who was guilty of living in the midrange (nearly 43% of his shot attempts). Broadus will urge him to get all the way to the rim more frequently, using his size to earn more trips to the free throw line. A pair of transfers named Troy – Troy Holston (St. Joe’s and South Florida) and Troy Baxter (UNLV and FGCU) – give the Bears some higher pedigree as well as dynamic offensive weapons. Holston is a well-built wing who has struggled with injuries in his career; if healthy, he’ll be a primary offensive option and solid shooter. Baxter, on the other hand, is a bouncy 6’9 forward who should be a foce in the paint given his immense physical gifts. He pairs nicely alongside Syfax, as both can flex between the 4 and the 5 in the MEAC will playing inside and out. Sophomore Malik Miller is another high-upside option, though extremely raw offensively.

That athleticism should also serve the Bears well defensively, where the Troys and LaPri McCray-Pace can all be difference-makers. Broadus should gravitate towards man-to-man given his roster, and continuing to pressure is a viable option with on-ball defenders like Devonish, McCray-Pace, Burke, Davis, and Miller (Bozeman extended full court on 29% of possessions per Synergy, 12th-most in the country).

Bottom Line: Though I do like some of the pieces here, Broadus’s directive should not be to win immediately. He has said that part of why he took the job is because of the support behind the program, meaning he should have time to build. That starts with the promising sophomore class (Devonish, Burke, Miller) and a freshman who should play immediately (Peter Sorber). Broadus is likely an upgrade over Bozeman, and this roster has a ton of options, but a leap to the upper tier of the league would be too ambitious.

Tier 3

7. Florida A&M

Key Returners: Kamron Reaves, MJ Randolph, Rod Melton Jr., DJ Jones, Nasir Core, Ifeanyi Umezurike
Key Losses: Tracy Hector (grad transfer), Justin Ravenel, Isaiah Martin
Key Newcomers: Jamir Williams, Evins Desir (JUCO), Randall Leath (redshirt), Dexter Smith (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: Like many MEAC schools, Florida A&M struggled through a torturous nonconference schedule, going just 3-12, and the only home games were two wins against non-Division I opponents. The Rattlers then started league play 7-2, using the conference’s best defense to frustrate opponents and turn games into a slog. That defense will be crucial again this year, because Robert McCullum’s group has an alarming dearth of offensive options.

The Rattlers came in at 347th nationally in KenPom’s AdjOE rankings, largely due to a lack of ball security and a nonexistent half court attack. Per Synergy, they were in the 40th percentile nationally in transition, but when forced to play in the half court, they dropped precipitously into the 3rd percentile. That split was exacerbated by McCullum’s preference to play slowly, and that approach simply didn’t match the team’s roster makeup.

The numbers could get even worse this year, as Florida A&M loses perhaps the best shooter in the entire conference in Justin Ravenel, who made 104 threes at a staggering 46.4% clip. The entire rest of the roster was 76/265 from deep (28.7%), further underlining just how important Ravenel was. Kamron Reaves and Nasir Core will continue quarterbacking the attack, but Reaves was one of the primary culprits in both turnovers (3.3 per game) and bricky shooting (25.5% from deep).

The half court offense was almost entirely predicated on Ravenel weaving through a web of off-ball screens, looking to get him shots or catch opponents in bad rotations while trying to cover him. With him on the court, the Rattlers scored 0.92 points per possession in MEAC play, and while that may seem bad, it plummeted to 0.78ppp when he sat, a grotesque figure. Rod Melton Jr., who was ineligible for the entire second semester and played only 11 games, could be a massive piece after shooting 54.5% from deep before having to sit out, and former JUCO player Dexter Smith had a reputation as a shooter at his previous stop. Most likely, though, FAMU will try to overwhelm teams with athleticism on both ends.

MJ Randolph, the MEAC’s Freshman of the Year last year, and Jamir Williams, a candidate for the same honor this year, bring a jolt of quickness and bounce on the wing that most opponents will struggle to deal with. They’ll form an intimidating duo on the defensive end, too, using their length to get steals and challenge shots. Up front, DJ Jones is an athletic 6’9 forward who ranked 4th in the MEAC in block rate, and fellow big man Ifeanyi Umezurike has the size to disrupt opponents at the rim, as well. He got hurt this offseason, and while he may be ready for the start of the season, 300-pound monster Evins Desir may be pressed into more minutes. Desir can absolutely bully opponents in the paint with his size, but the big Haitian will need to prove he can fit into McCullum’s defensive scheme.

Bottom Line: McCullum has done a solid job in his first two seasons in charge, rescuing the FAMU program from the depths after a disastrous three-year stretch before he arrived. The defense may regress slightly this year if opponents hit more shots (just 30.2% last year, 19th-best nationally), but the combination of size and athleticism along with McCullum’s teachings should maintain it as a strength. The half court offense, though, probably anchors the Rattlers attempts to slither up the standings.

8. Coppin State

Key Returners: Dejuan Clayton, Nigel Marshall, Brendan Medley-Bacon, Ibn Williams
Key Losses: Lamar Morgan, Chad Andrews-Fulton, Cedric Council, Kent Auslander, Taqwain Drummond (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Kamar McKnight (Tenn St.)***, Aaron Robinson (Quinnipiac), Andrew Robinson (Quinnipiac), Reggie James, Koby Thomas (Robert Morris)***

Lineup:

Note: McKnight and Thomas are both awaiting NCAA waivers; Dixon is optimistic that both will receive them.

Note 2: Isaiah Gross will miss the season with a knee injury.

Outlook: When Coppin State hired local legend Juan Dixon to take over the basketball head coaching job, the administration had to know it was a risk. Dixon had very little coaching experience, and Coppin State has not exactly been a prolific program in recent years. Still, Dixon’s first two years have been…rocky. A couple of the uglier stats:

• Coppin State’s offense has ranked 351st (dead last) and 349th (fifth-worst) in Dixon’s two years.

• The next non-conference win the Eagles get will be Dixon’s first. He’s 0-30 in the months of November and December, and while he has played tough schedules (including just four home games), developing a reputation as “the 0-15 team” isn’t ideal.

Entering the all-important year three for a new coach, Dixon’s biggest challenge will be turning around the Eagles’ anemic attack. Among a multitude of fatal flaws, perhaps the most glaring one has been Coppin State’s bricktastic shooting display. Dixon wants to play a variety of “pace and space,” and the Eagles certainly have attempted a high volume of threes in his first two campaigns, ranking 23rd and 8th in 3PA rate. The problem is, if none of those shots go in, “space” is hard to come by: the Eagles converted just 28.5% (348th) and 30.5% (338th) of those attempts.

To raise the skill level, Dixon smartly consulted the transfer portal, bringing in two (possibly four) imports, all of whom may start immediately. The most important of those may be twins Andrew and Aaron Robinson, two big wings from Quinnipiac who don’t need the ball but can help stretch the floor. Neither has truly been a “knockdown” shooter yet – in true twin fashion, both players have hit 32% of their career threes – but rest assured, that’s their game: they’ve combined for 414 attempted triples, compared to just 87 two-pointers.

The other two key additions, Koby Thomas (Robert Morris) and Kamar McKnight (Tennessee St.), are awaiting waivers from the NCAA, and both are proven scorers at their previous stops (though again, they really can’t shoot). If eligible, McKnight will be a nice backcourt complement to returning starter Dejuan Clayton, the team’s clear leader and alpha at the point guard spot. Dixon’s offense is extremely guard-friendly, letting them run off a variety of ball screens and dribble handoffs, and adding another skilled driver would be a plus. Freshman Reggie James will likely earn playing time right away, especially considering how painfully inefficient sophomores Nigel Marshall, Ibn Williams, and center Brendan Medley-Bacon were in their rookie campaigns.

At the very least, Coppin State’s defense should continue to be stout. All four transfers add athleticism and switchability to the roster, and along with Marshall and Jordan Hardwick, they give Dixon some lineup optionality in his preferred man-to-man approach. Medley-Bacon has promise as a rim presence, and sophomore Giir Ring could provide more versatility if he proves ready for more minutes.

Bottom Line: I was excited about the Juan Dixon hire when it was first announced, but I’m still waiting on evidence that he can actually orchestrate a competent basketball team, especially on offense. The crop of transfers he brought in removes some of the “talent gap” excuse, meaning Dixon needs to start showing the Eagles can be competitive with him at the helm. It’s possible, but I will maintain a “prove it” mindset before I hop on board the bandwagon.

9. Howard

Key Returners: Charles Williams, Zion Cousins, Andre Toure, Raymond Bethea, Kyle Foster
Key Losses: RJ Cole (transfer), Chad Lott (grad transfer), Akuwovo Ogheneyole (transfer), Jalen Jones
Key Newcomers: Khalil Robinson, Wayne Bristol Jr., Ian Lee, Michael Barber (redshirt), Liwayne Richardson

Lineup:

Outlook: The Mike Krzyzewski coaching tree continues to sprout small branches everywhere, with Howard hoops becoming the latest to feature an offshoot of that ever-expanding sequoia. Former Blue Devil Kenny Blakeney takes over for Kevin Nickelberry, and though Blakeney was never on Coach K’s staff, he has worked under K protégés Mike Brey and Tommy Amaker. He also spent seven years in the private sector working for UnderArmour, where I’m 100% sure he wasn’t involved in any recruiting shoe deals and made absolutely zero potentially shady contacts.

Howard has also been in the news for its pursuit of 2020 5-star recruit Josh Christopher, who would monumentally shift the Bison’s prospects (for one season, at least). This year, though, Howard will have to make do without Christopher – and another star, RJ Cole, who transferred to UConn. Cole was the best player in the MEAC, a lethal scorer who could also set up his teammates and be a pest defensively. His influence on both ends of the court was clear in the on/off numbers:

With Cole (and fellow starting guard Chad Lott) having transferred, Blakeney will lean on Charles Williams, a big wing who can score at all three levels. Williams ranked second in the MEAC in percentage of shots taken while on the floor, and he’ll need someone to fill Cole’s role as the table-setter to his feverish scoring appetite. Thankfully, freshman Khalil Robinson is the perfect option, and Blakeney has made no secret about his plans to hand the keys to the young ball-handler from day one. Like Cole, he can score and create, and along with Williams, he’ll be feeding sophomore Raymond Bethea and junior Kyle Foster quite a bit. Bethea had a hard time getting on the court with Cole, Williams, and Lott blocking him, but he did post two 14-point games against Ball State and Hampton when Lott was out of the lineup. Foster is a textbook standstill shooter; he took 76 threes to just 15 twos last year.

The backcourt needs to be prolific, too, because the frontcourt was essentially banned from looking at the hoop under Nickelberry. If you add up the usage rates of starting duo Akuwovo Ogheneyole and Zion Cousins (13.7% and 11.1%), it was still less than Cole and Lott’s usage rates on their own (narrowly edging Williams at 24.8% vs. 24.1%). Ogheneyole transferred, but Cousins is back as an excellent rebounder and serviceable rim protector, and Blakeney can turn to sophomore Princewill Anosike at center for true intimidator in the paint. Andre Toure is a slightly more offensive-minded option, though his skill level is an issue (38.6% from the free throw line). Foster, Bethea, Williams, Toure, and Cousins are all between 6’6 and 6’8 and versatile, which should give Blakeney some options on the defensive end (which will probably be all man-to-man, given his background).

Bottom Line: Nickelberry got some talented players on campus in the nation’s capital, but he finished inside the KenPom top 300 just once in nine seasons, leading the administration to turn to Blakeney to jumpstart the program. His first recruiting class, featuring Robinson, 6’1 guard Ian Lee, 6’6 wing Wayne Bristol Jr., and post men Liwayne Richardson, Cam Timmons, and William Settle, looks like it has several building blocks, but even with Williams around to rack up points, making a big leap this year will be difficult.

Tier 4 

10. Delaware State

Key Returners: Johquin “Pinky” Wiley, D’Marco Baucum, Ameer Bennett, Fahim Jenneto
Key Losses: Kevin Larkin, Jon Mitchell (transfer), Saliek Edwards
Key Newcomers: John Crosby (Dayton), Lance Singh (JUCO), Chris Sodom (Georgetown/George Washington)

Lineup:

Outlook: Let’s start with the “positives” from last year: Delaware State narrowly avoided the “Mr. Irrelevant” honor on KenPom.com, ranking 352nd, just ahead of fellow MEAC disaster zone UMES. The Hornets also won the Battle of Delaware, beating their in-state rival 73-71 in one of the most genuinely shocking outcomes of the entire season (the Blue Hens were a 21-point favorite). And…that’s about it! Following an opening day blowout loss at East Carolina, the Hornets never rose above 352 for the entire season, and climbing out of that pit will be a challenge following the loss of high-usage wing Kevin Larkin.

Eric Skeeters returns for his second season at the helm after coming over from UMBC, and his first year was a far cry from the heights of knocking off #1 Virginia. The most obvious problem was the team’s complete lack of offensive weapons, ranking 347th nationally in 3P% (29.0%) and dead last in the country in 2P% (37.7%). That last number is particularly terrifying, as the Hornets were the first team to go “sub-38” inside the arc since 2004. Per hoop-math, they were bad from everywhere: 351st from the midrange, 352nd at the rim.

Two transfers will be the most crucial part of correcting that issue: 7’3 center Chris Sodom had cups of coffee at George Washington and Georgetown, but he got sick of “George” schools and now offers a completely unique option in the tiny MEAC. If Skeeters can get him on the court and focused, the former ESPN 4-star recruit will be an absolutely dominant player in the paint on both ends of the court. The other key transfer is John Crosby, a former Dayton guard who could emerge into a force with the step down in competition.

Crosby can play some point guard, but the return of Johquin “Pinky” Wiley should allow him to focus on scoring. Skeeters smartly let his team push in transition, knowing that the best way to points was probably via transition (although they struggled there, as well). The frontcourt of D’Marco Baucum, Fahim Jenneto (torn ACL after 12 games), and Ameer Bennett should at least provide some finishing in the paint (and insurance in case Sodom doesn’t work out).

The defense was…relatively better? DSU still ranked 333rd nationally on the defensive end, and again, Sodom could be a huge swing piece with his ability to block shots and generally take up space. JUCO wing Lance Singh III offers some size in the backcourt and likely will be tasked with replacing a lot of Larkin’s versatility on the wing; Singh III earned minutes for Indian Hills, one of the best junior college programs in the country.

Bottom Line: Delaware State will be limited with what it can do once again, as the team roster indicates JUCO guard L.J. Stansbury and freshman Omari Peek-Green didn’t make it on campus. Without them, the Hornets only have 11 players (eight of whom are on scholarship, per Verbal Commits), crushing the Hornets’ depth. There’s still upside with the additions of Sodom and Crosby, but the bottom could fall out very quickly.

11. Maryland Eastern Shore

Key Returners: Bryan Urrutia, AJ Cheeseman, Ahmad Frost, Gabriel Gyamfi, Canaan Bartley
Key Losses: Ryan Andino, Tyler Jones, Isaac Taylor
Key Newcomers: Marlon Adams (JUCO), Ty Gibson (JUCO), Bruce Guy, Kevin Voyles, Da’Shawn Phillip, Walter Prevost (JUCO), Jahmal Wright (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Last season had an ominous tone at the start for UMES, as it named Clifford Reed interim head coach in April – strangely deciding not to hire someone permanently. That foreshadowed the disaster ahead, as UMES didn’t win a Division I game until January 19th and finished dead last in KenPom’s rankings. The Hawks did close the regular season on a “tear,” though, winning three consecutive games – two against fellow disaster Delaware State and one against Morgan State (possibly ramming the metaphorical nail into Todd Bozeman’s coffin there).

New (permanent) hire Jason Crafton will hope to build on that flash of momentum. Crafton takes over after a season in the G-League on the staff of the Delaware 87ers, previously serving as head coach at Division II Nyack (his alma mater) for six season and working on the Navy staff under Billy Lange and Ed DeChellis. Crafton’s lack of success at Nyack is a major concern: he went just 47-108 overall, 35-78 in conference, and his last two years (14-38) were no better than his first two (15-36). He’s said the right things, though, honestly appraising his chances and understanding that it will be a process to build UMES up to competitive levels.

His biggest asset will be point guard Bryan Urrutia, an excellent passer who excels in the open floor. He also showed some potency in pick-and-roll settings, ranking in the 45th percentile nationally on a raw points per possession basis, and Crafton will surely expect him to run quite a few PnRs. The weapons around him are question marks, though: guards Ahmad Frost and Canaan Bartley were two of the least efficient offensive players in the MEAC, and while getting forward A.J. Cheeseman back from injury is a boost, he also struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket (shot just 40.4% from two despite standing 6’7). Fellow forward Gabriel Gyamfi was far better, but he’s a catch-and-finish guy, not someone who can create his own offense.

As a result, plenty of responsibility will fall on the newcomers, especially JUCO transfers Marlon Adams and Ty Gibson. The two played together at Gulf Coast State, and they bring size and skill on the wing. Freshman Da’Shawn Phillip will hopefully help the outside shooting of Ryan Andino, who hit over 300 triples in his UMES career (although he slumped percentage-wise as a senior). Junior college big man Walter Prevost should also be a beneficial addition if he’s healthy - though that is no certainty. That group should also help on defense, where Crafton will mix things up, especially given his time working under DeChellis, whose zone schemes constantly frustrated opponents until he retired this offseason.

Bottom Line: Crafton takes over a major rebuilding job, as the team is on its third coach in three seasons and lacks offensive weapons in an alarming way. His best hope is to start instilling a culture this year, laying a groundwork of discipline and intelligent effort, while building the talent pool over the next few years via both freshmen and the transfer wire.