-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

*** - Bethune-Cookman is declining to play out its lame duck MEAC season, but I felt the need to rank them regardless. So long, Wildcats - see you in the SWAC next year (along with Florida A&M)…

Player of the Year: C.J. Keyser, R Sr., North Carolina Central
Coach of the Year: Rob Jones, Norfolk State
Newcomer of the Year: Makur Maker, Fr., Howard
Freshman of the Year: Makur Maker, Howard

Note: if Nojel Eastern gets his waiver at Howard, he’d move onto the Second Team above. That would slide Sherwyn Devonish down to Third Team and bump Wayne Bristol off a squad. For reasons I can’t fully explain, I included Eastern in the team ranking (I do expect him to get his waiver), but not all-conference - I have strange principles!

Tier 1

1. North Carolina Central

Key Returners: C.J. Keyser, Jordan Perkins, Nicolas Fennell, Deven Palmer, Ty Graves, Justin Whatley
Key Losses: Jibri Blount, Evan Clayborne (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jamir Moultrie (La Salle), Cameron Bowles (Chicago St.), Justin Wright, Nehemie Kabeya (JUCO), Alex Caldwell (SEMO)***

*** - still needs a waiver to play immediately, to our knowledge

Lineup:

Outlook: If you can’t beat him, join him!

The “him” in this scenario is NC Central’s brilliant head coach LeVelle Moton, a staple at the school for a decade now, and the adage refers to other MEAC coaches finally latching onto Moton’s roster building strategy of plucking down-transfers off the waiver wire and featuring them in starring roles. Led by players like Jibri Blount (Cleveland St.), Raasean Davis (Kent St.), Patrick Cole (Siena), and Dajuan Graf (FGCU), NCCU has not lost a MEAC Tournament game since 2016, and Moton’s MEAC adversaries are now chasing transfer talent to go along with the traditional league route of loading up on junior college players.

Of course, Moton is still the king of the MEAC hill, and with C.J. Keyser (Wichita St.), Ty Graves (BC/SLU), Justin Whatley (East Carolina), and Jamir Moultrie (La Salle), he has another group of talented D-I imports with which to implement his style.

That style is a common chorus in the conference: play aggressive defensively, get downhill on offense and attack the rim, get easy points at the charity stripe. The Eagles mostly do it better than anyone else, though, and Keyser emerged into a star down the stretch after battling injuries last season:

He ultimately ranked 13th in the conference in usage and 6th in offensive rating, using a smooth jumper to force opponents out on him and a quick first step to blow by them. JUCO transfer Deven Palmer similarly did not hit his stride until the conference portion of the schedule, but if Moton can get him and Keyser playing well from the outset, the Eagles might have the MEAC’s best – and deepest – backcourt.

Graves and Moultrie are mostly shooters, but veterans Jordan Perkins and Nicolas Fennell will happily take advantage of any driving lanes those two open up. Perkins has started 69 career games in three years and racked up 465 assists in the process, and he embodies the “downhill” nature of Moton’s system. Fennell is a bigger-bodied driver who will need to beat out Palmer for a starting gig.

After starting 15 games last year but playing a complementary role in the paint, Whatley becomes quite important this year after Blount, the MEAC Player of the Year, graduated. He has the frame to dominate in the paint, but he was nearly invisible on the glass last year and rarely asserted himself offensively. Cameron Bowles is an athletic forward who will fit the “get to the free throw line” approach, but Moton needs Whatley, JUCO product Nehemie Kabeya, or reserve Kobby Ayetey to be physical presences.

The Eagles should also be able to rely on a defense that has consistently been one of the best in the MEAC under Moton’s watch, last year included. He mixes zone and full court pressure judiciously, keeping opponents off-balance from possession to possession. His ability to bring in athletes and size has helped NCCU pull off a difficult defensive feat: rank highly every year in defensive 3P%. In nine of the last 10 seasons, NCCU’s defense has ranked in the top 52 in that category, a remarkable run of consistency in a category that is often hard to control. With such a deep stable of guards, many of whom have solid length (Palmer, Keyser, Fennell), expect that trend to continue, as Moton simply seems to know how to disrupt opponents’ rhythms.

Replacing Blount’s commendable work on the glass will be a challenge, though. Kabeya could be a highly impactful rim protector given his size, but Whatley, Bowles, and Ayetey are a far cry from matching Blount’s rebounding output. Palmer was clearly the team’s second-best defensive rebounder last year, and that may not be sustainable over the course of an entire season against opponents with real size.

Bottom Line: Blount was the crown jewel of last year’s squad, but the late emergences of Keyser and Palmer give the roster some offensive pop, and Perkins has a multitude of experience as the team’s floor leader. This NCCU team may lack the inside presence of a Blount or a Davis, but which such a skilled and deep backcourt, Moton has plenty of talent to remain the league favorite after a 13-3 campaign. His 11-game MEAC Tournament winning streak will be put to the test, though, particularly considering all of the talent added at other schools across the league.

2. Norfolk St.

Key Returners: Devante Carter, Joe Bryant Jr., Tyrese Jenkins, Kashaun Hicks, Yoro Sidibe, Esfratos Kalogerias, Chris Ford
Key Losses: Diesel Whitley, Jermaine Bishop
Key Newcomers: Mustafa Lawrence (Fresno St.), J.J. Matthews (Arkansas St.), Jalen Hawkins (Robert Morris)***

*** - still needs a waiver to play immediately, to our knowledge

Lineup:

Outlook: Only in the MEAC can a team have a dismal 321st-ranked offense for the full season and yet still manage to post the most efficient attack during league play. That was Norfolk State last year, who recovered from a painful non-conference performance on that end thanks to a 16-game Jermaine Bishop explosion. Bishop buried 41.8% of his triples in MEAC play to spearhead the Spartans’ resurgent offense, posting the conference’s 3rd-highest O-rating on the 11th-highest usage. Bishop is gone, as is bruising backcourt mate Diesel Whitley, but with the rest of the rotation back and Robert Jones still at the helm, Norfolk State will once again be in the thick of the conference title race.

Jones’ Norfolk teams have been the model of consistent excellence throughout his seven-year tenure. He’s never gone worse than 11-5 in the league, accumulating an 84-28 (75%) record and winning 20 games twice – a true accomplishment considering the rigorous non-conference slates his teams play. An NCAA Tournament bid has eluded him, though, which is surely a frustrating absence on his resume considering the metronomic pattern of winning he’s engineered in Virginia.

Without Bishop and Whitley, the Spartans should build from the defensive end, where Jones favors pressure and mixes in zones in an effort to make the opponent uncomfortable. His last three teams have gotten progressively better at forcing turnovers (70th, then 53rd, then 41st last year), and stoutly-built guards Joe Bryant and Devante Carter will continue to harass foes after ranking 3rd and 5th, respectively, in the MEAC in steal rate. You don’t want to deal with this pair:

Speedy point guard transfer Mustafa Lawrence should feel unleashed in the scheme after playing in two conservative systems at Missouri St. (Paul Lusk) and Fresno St. (Justin Hutson), and veteran Kyonze Chavis is a nice depth piece who can get after the ball, as well.

The other key aspect of Jones’ scheme is consistently challenging shots and making it tough to score at the rim. To that end, he has a veritable army of 6’6-6’8 athletic forwards who can guard multiple positions, along with a towering centerpiece in 6’10 Efstratios Kalogerias and a brawny center in J.J. Matthews. The big Greek knows his role: eat space in the paint on both ends, don’t do anything crazy offensively. Matthews could be more of a true anchor, and he’s the best interior scorer on the roster. Two other returning forwards started at least 10 games (Chris Ford, Yoro Sidibe), both of whom excel on the glass; they’ll provide solid by-committee production once again.

On the other end, like most MEAC squads, Jones emphasizes playing in transition, barraging the offensive glass, and getting to the rim. Tyrese Jenkins was a hyper-efficient scorer in league play, tallying 12 or more points four times despite missing the season’s final three games, but he drifted in and out of the rotation too much to make a serious impact. Without Bishop and Whitley, he’ll be counted on to score more consistently. Bryant and Carter will spark the transition attack with their defense, while Lawrence may be the key to the team as a creator and distributor in the half court.

The former Bulldog and Bear is a skilled downhill player, but he’ll need some passing options, and the Spartans have a concerning lack of shooting: aside from Bishop, no player on the 2019-20 squad met the low standards of 1) making more than 24 triples and 2) converting 33% or above. Bryant (32.5%) came close, and little-used wings Kashaun Hicks and Daryl Anderson could alleviate some of the issue if they earn more playing time. Jenkins can also knock down an open jumper, but the Spartans will again rely on Sidibe, Ford, and Matthews reeling in some second shot opportunities to juice the otherwise bricky offense.

Bottom Line: Norfolk’s incredible consistency under Jones, coupled with the return of so much of the rotation, will keep the Spartans right near the top of the MEAC. Winning the league – and earning Jones’ first NCAA bid in the process – will depend on whether Lawrence and Jenkins can fill the offensive void created by Bishop and Whitley’s departures. I’ve found it very unwise to bet against Mr. Jones, though I do have the Spartans coming up just short once again in their Big Dance audition – someday, it will happen!

3. North Carolina A&T

Key Returners: Kameron Langley, Fred Cleveland Jr., Kwe Parker, Tyrone Lyons, Tyler Maye
Key Losses: Ronald Jackson, Andre Jackson, Devin Haygood
Key Newcomers: Blake Harris (NC State)**, Quentin Jones (JUCO), Tyler Jones (UMES), Jeremy Robinson (JUCO), Milton Matthews III, David Greer (JUCO), Kenyon Duling (SIUE)***

** - needs a waiver to play right away, otherwise eligible at semester
*** - still needs a waiver to play immediately, to our knowledge

Lineup:

Outlook: The Aggies faced a mid-season quandary after suspending head coach Jay Joyner in late December, already looking down the barrel of a 3-10 start against a challenging schedule. Control of the team was handed to Joyner assistant Will Jones, a journeyman coach for 15 years whose only head job came for one season at the illustrious West Nassau High School in Callahan, Florida (I had to look up where that is, too). Jones responded deftly, though, altering the team’s style by taking a cue from Dark Helmet in Spaceballs:

When Jones took over on December 27th, the Aggies ranked 171st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, squarely in the middle of the national pack. Within a month, the Aggies ranked 40th, and by the end of the year, they had risen all the way to 9th. Jones had established a clear identity: run, run, and run some more, putting the ball in the hands of speedy veteran point guard Kameron Langley and trusting that good things would happen as a result.

A savvy idea, that. Langley led the country in assists (247) and assists per game (8.0), and even his assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.35 ranked 37th, evidencing that he actually took solid care of the ball, as well. Langley fueled the transition attack, pushing the ball down opponents throats and brilliantly reading the floor with his eyes up at all times – even after made baskets:

He’s also the fulcrum in the half court, attacking out of isolation or in pick-and-rolls and getting to the free throw line at one of the country’s highest rates. The final step to his development is making those charity shots; his 52.2% success rate dragged down NC A&T as a whole, who ranked 10th nationally in free throw rate but just 350th in FT%.

Langley may be the key to the attack, but bigs that run the floor like Devin Haygood (the dunker in the above clip) and Ronald Jackson are also vital, which means veteran Tyrone Lyons and newcomers Quentin Jones and Tyler Jones (unrelated) will need to be on their horses. That group isn’t particularly strong on the glass, but that’s partially by design – Jones favors mobility over all else in his track meet style. Bigger bodies Harry Morrice and David Greer provide more conventional size and will be counted on to gobble up rebounds, but their minutes will hinge on their ability to keep up with the Langley-led rocket ship.

Langley also needs runners on the wing, and the Aggies’ backcourt rotation is stacked with talent and upside. Tyler Maye (formerly of VCU) and Kwe Parker (Tennessee) are both downhill athletes at the guard spot, and Jones added another option with high major pedigree in Blake Harris (Mizzou and NC State). Harris has some point guard skills himself, but he also has terrific straight-line speed and can be an outstanding on-ball defender when he’s engaged. The former 4-star recruit has already been at three colleges and played at a variety of high schools, though, so getting him focused and on the court consistently may be a challenge (the style should appeal to him, though).

Not to worry, though, because Fred Cleveland, Jr. is an ideal running mate alongside Langley. Cleveland, Jr. has speed to burn and is wired to score, making him the perfect Molotov cocktail of confidence off the bench. JUCO transfer Jeremy Robinson and freshman Milton Matthews III can fill in any minutes leftover from that group.

Jones’ defense is heavily reliant on Langley, as well, as the senior PG led the MEAC in steal rate; Cleveland Jr. (14th) and Maye (10th) weren’t far behind. Jones mixes in a plethora of zone (over 42% of possessions), and he gives his aggressive guards the freedom to gamble out of that scheme. The Aggies’ eagerness to push pace has some negative side effects defensively, often conceding quick/easy shots themselves and proving suspect on the defensive glass. Finally, few teams should fear the almighty shooting regression monster more than NC A&T; foes made just 29.2% of their triples last year (14th-worst in the country) and 63.7% of their free throws (2nd-worst), both of which could revert more towards average this year and undermine what was the MEAC’s 3rd-ranked defense last year by AdjDE.

Bottom Line: Jones was the rare winner of a Coach of the Year while carrying an “interim” tag, but the NC A&T administration smartly lifted that label this offseason. The Aggies’ distinct style juiced the offense quite a bit, but scoring away from the rim will still be a concern, and the big man rotation likely takes a step back without an efficient star like Ronald Jackson. With Langley running the show, though, NC A&T will once again be a league threat, and the extreme pace is jarring to play against, even in an up-tempo conference like the MEAC.

4. Morgan St.

Key Returners: Sherwyn Devonish, Troy Baxter, Isaiah Burke, Malik Miller, Jamar Brown, Lagio Grantsaan, Troy Holston (injury)
Key Losses: Stanley Davis, David Syfax
Key Newcomers: Naseem Khalid, Trevor Moore (Cincinnati)**, Sharone Wright (Wake Forest)***, De’Torrion Ware (Jacksonville St.)***

** - needs waiver to play right away, otherwise eligible at semester
*** - needs waiver to play this season

Lineup:

Outlook: Plenty of attention was (deservedly) paid to Howard University’s tremendous offseason, but the Bison weren’t the only ones reeling in talent. Kevin Broadus and Morgan State may not have a top-of-the-line newcomer like Makur Maker, but they do have a deep and talented squad that could become extremely potent if the NCAA waiver office smiles down upon them (ok, big if, even in this wild offseason). That’s all on top of a stout returning core that went 15-16 (9-7) in Broadus’ first season, up six wins overall and five in MEAC play.

Upon arriving last year, Broadus’ biggest change was bringing in some legitimate size. The Bears went from 349th nationally in average height in 2018-19 to a more respectable 215th last year, and the effects on the defense were obvious:

The scheme finally pushed foes away from the rim after former coach Todd Bozeman offered them a direct line to the cup, and that size infusion made any forays inside more difficult. Unfortunately, the overall AdjDE ranking did not improve much, and that’s because Jamar Brown and the rest of the Bears hacked at frightening rates. Brown committed an almost unthinkable 10.2 fouls per 40 minutes, meaning the sizable rebounder found himself in constant foul trouble despite playing just 11.5 minutes per game. Departed forward David Syfax was also a culprit, but Broadus still has a centerpiece in the paint in Troy Baxter, an athletic 6’9 forward who led the MEAC in block rate after spending time at FGCU and UNLV in the past.

The fouling issues were especially concerning because they were not offset by forced turnovers, as most pressure schemes often are. In a league that almost universally tries to speed up opponents, Morgan State ranked 9th of 11 in forced turnover rate, despite pressing at the 19th-highest rate nationally. This year’s roster focus was to give the backcourt a jolt of size and athleticism, and Broadus checked that box emphatically: Trevor Moore was a Mick Cronin recruit, so you know the 6’5 wing will get after it defensively, and freshman Naseem Khalid has the quickness and nasty streak to become an on-ball scourge. The Bears are also hoping for waivers for Sharone Wright and De’Torrion Ware, both of whom should flourish in the guard-oriented MEAC.

Even with that talent influx, the Bears’ best defender might be Malik Miller, a tenacious wing who dominated the glass from his position. After forcing his way into the starting lineup with nine games remaining, he averaged 8.7 RPG, and the newcomers will have to pry his hyper-competitive grip off a starting spot.

The glasswork of Miller and Brown buoyed an offense that was plagued by the typical MEAC problems: no outside shooting (347th in 3P%) and sloppy ball-handling (347th in non-steal TO%). Considering his extended time coaching under John Thompson III (nine cumulative seasons), Broadus unsurprisingly has some Princeton principles in his system, oftentimes running the offense through wing Stanley Davis or Syfax last year. Point guard Sherwyn Devonish isn’t asked to do a ton of playmaking, but more will still be expected of the All-MEAC Third Team honoree.

Baxter and Brown didn’t fully flash the playmaking necessary to trigger the Princeton’s constant flow of backdoor cuts, so Moore may be asked to shoulder that offensive burden once eligible (currently slated for the end of the first semester). If Ware gets a waiver, he would add considerable offensive pop, as would oft-injured wing Troy Holston (who is now in his seventh season of college hoops! Seven! And this year doesn’t count!). Baxter and Dutch forward Lagio Grantsaan do offer some semblance of floor spacing up front, which is crucial, but the Bears still struggled badly against frequent zone defenses.

Bottom Line: In two offseasons, Broadus has raised the Bears’ defensive ceiling considerably, and that side of the ball should be what carries them to an upper half finish in a suddenly very competitive MEAC. If Wright and Ware receive waivers and Holston is healthy, there may be enough of an offensive arsenal to threaten at the top of the league and challenge for Broadus’ second NCAA bid – few may remember that he actually made an NCAA appearance at Binghamton back in 2009 before he was dismissed among an investigation into academic fraud and other NCAA violations. Now getting a second chance as a head coach, Broadus hopes to make a similar season two leap as he did with the Bearcats.



5. Howard

Key Returners: Wayne Bristol Jr., Kyle Foster, Khalil Robinson
Key Losses: Charles Williams, Nate Garvey, Zion Cousins (left team), Raymond Bethea (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Makur Maker, Nojel Eastern (Purdue)***, Sam Green (Drexel), Deven Richmond (JUCO), Jordan Wood, Rahim Ali, Thomas Weaver, Isaac Suffren (Lafayette)***

*** - needs a waiver to play this season - this ranking includes Eastern, but not Suffren

Lineup:

Outlook: Josh Christopher teased the idea of a 5-star recruit attending Howard, taking an official visit before ultimately staying closer to home in the Pac 12. The idea was fun while it lasted, but we were never really going to see an elite talent dropped into the HBCU landscape. OR WERE WE?!

Makur Maker had other ideas, committing to the Bison a month and a half later, wreaking havoc in the college hoops world with a shocking middle of the night declaration. Amid the ongoing struggle for black Americans to secure equal treatment in this country, Maker felt that his commitment would “make the HBCU movement real so that others will follow.” It was an incredible decision from a societal lens, and it carries tremendous intrigue on the court, as well.

So begins an enticing four-month experiment: will Maker, regarded as something of a “rawer” 5-star talent, thoroughly thrash the inferior competition with his wealth of physical gifts and burgeoning perimeter game? Or will he struggle to lift a Howard team that was truly and completely dreadful last season?

To aid that quest, Coach Kenny Blakeney did an admirable job of bringing in several other significant pieces to complement his recruiting coup d’état. Purdue transfer Nojel Eastern unquestionably regressed as a junior, ceding playmaking duties to Eric Hunter and becoming even more of a non-factor offensively, but his size and ball-handling should allow him to bully smaller MEAC opponents at will. Fellow transfer Sam Green adds some offensive pop, providing floor spacing around the roster’s two stars, and Lafayette import Isaac Suffren (needs a waiver) and JUCO wing Deven Richmond add even more skill and athleticism on the wing.

If eligible, Eastern could join Maker to give the Bison the best defensive duo in the league. Eastern was an all-conference-caliber defender in the Big Ten; he should blanket whoever he’s covering night in and night out. Maker is still learning some of the more intricate aspects of the defensive end, but his size and length will erase countless drives to the basket, especially in a league where scoring at the rim is king. Blakeney played a ton of zone last year (64% of the time, 11th-highest rate nationally), but that was partially due to an injury plagued-roster devoid of impactful individual defenders. With Eastern and Maker, Blakeney would have an ace inside and out, likely allowing him to play more man-to-man, and Maker’s presence will go a long way towards lifting the Bison’s nation-worst defensive rebounding rate.  

They’ll join a few enticing returners (well, as enticing as veterans of a 4-28 campaign can be) to hopefully erase the memories of last year’s dismal squad. Wayne Bristol was the MEAC’s Freshman of the Year, a double-digit scorer with size on the wing who buried 43% of his triples in conference play, the 3rd-best rate in the league. He was sloppy with the ball, but playing with more talented pieces could help ease that issue. Khalil Robinson couldn’t shoot, but he’s a solid ball-handling option if Eastern needs a blow (or doesn’t get his waiver), and Kyle Foster complements Bristol as another perimeter shooter with size.

The offense’s biggest issue was an over-reliance on jump shots, traditionally a death knell for MEAC outfits. The Bison ranked 340th nationally in shot attempt rate at the rim, per Hoop-Math, consistently settling for significantly less efficient mid-range jumpers (21st-most nationally). Maker does have a tendency to rely on his perimeter game, and physical forward Zion Cousins left the team during the offseason, meaning the paint production will continue to be a question mark until proven otherwise. Blakeney has a wealth of size on the bench (6’10 Liwayne Richardson, 6’9 Jordan Wood, 6’10 Cam Timmons, 6’10 William Settle), and playing a second big alongside Maker could be dangerous change-up to throw at far smaller MEAC foes.

Bottom Line: Considering the talent last year’s Howard roster had (Charles Williams, Bristol, efficient gunner Nate Garvey, two-way rebounding force Cousins), it’s somewhat shocking that the Bison were as bad as they were. They simply refused to guard anything, ranking 350th in AdjDE overall and dead last in the MEAC in league play, and that makes it hard to trust Blakeney this year, despite the talent infusion. Maker and Eastern will instantly be the two best defenders on the roster, but the scheme and discipline need to be there too, both factors that were noticeably absent in 2019-20. Good, bad, or average, Howard will absolutely be must-watch basketball thanks to the eye-popping addition of Maker, but whether his presence translates to real winning is far less certain.

Tier 2

6. Coppin St.

Key Returners: Dejuan Clayton, Koby Thomas, Justin Steers (injury), Reggie James
Key Losses: Kamar McKnight, Andrew Robinson, Aaron Robinson, Brendan Medley-Bacon (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Anthony Tarke (UTEP), Chereef Knox (St. Joseph’s), Bryce Hunt (JUCO), Nendah Tarke, Damontas Sakickas (JUCO), Kyle Cardaci (JUCO), Isaiah Gross (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: Take a breath of fresh air, MEAC friends – talking Coppin State is a revitalizing change of pace from the usual cookie-cutter MEAC squad, particularly offensively. Juan Dixon has installed a far more modern offense than most of his conference counterparts, emphasizing shooting and pick-and-roll play over the prevailing style that mandates getting to the rim and the free throw line at all costs. He even plays zone at one of the lowest rates in the league! Those alternatives have found varying degrees of success, but few teams started the 2019-20 season hotter than these Eagles.

Over the season’s first 35 days, the Eagles were an erupting volcano against the spread, covering nine of their first 10 contests and winning four games as an outright underdog. If you hopped on early, the profitability was staggering:

Coppin State’s ridiculous streak resulted in a cool 127% return on spread & moneyline wagers ($2,537 profit on $2,000 risked). And if gambling isn’t your bag, the Eagles were also the highest riser up KenPom’s rankings from November 5th to December 10th in terms of Adjusted Efficiency Margin:

That improvement was short-lived, though, as the Eagles lost their next nine games (including 0-4 to start MEAC play), and from 12/10 to the end of the season, Coppin State was one of the biggest fallers in Mr. Pomeroy’s rankings. To top it all off, after that 9-1 ATS start, the Eagles then went 7-14 ATS the rest of the year. Don’t overreact!

Dixon’s challenge will be replicating the success from early in the year over the entire season, and bringing back arguably his two best and most important players gives him a strong foundation. The aforementioned pick-and-roll system relies on Dejuan Clayton to create shots, and the veteran has racked up 91 starts already in his collegiate career. He’s always been limited somewhat by his bricky perimeter shooting, but he’s a savvy passer and driver who knows how to get to the free throw line. Meanwhile, Koby Thomas is a versatile ‘tweener forward who really excelled against MEAC competition, where his size and skill made him a true matchup problem. Thomas scores opportunistically, primarily getting to the bucket in transition or as a clever cutter when foes zone the Eagles.

The Eagles’ swoon partially aligned with backcourt mate Kamar McKnight temporarily leaving the program, so having a second creator is crucial. The departed Ibn Williams really struggled in that role for two seasons, making the additions of Anthony Tarke and Chereef Knox pivotal. They’re both bigger wings who have some ball skills; both struggled to fit in at their previous stops, but Tarke in particular has proven himself as a potent scorer, averaging 15.7 PPG for a decent NJIT team back in 2017-18. Tarke’s younger brother, Nendah Tarke, should also play right away, as Dixon will need him, Reggie James, and JUCO transfer Kyle Cardaci to replace the shooting lost via the graduation of the Robinson twins.

Another key factor that enabled the Eagles to compete early in the year: high-major size in the paint, as seven-footer Brendan Medley-Bacon dominated the glass (#1 in the MEAC in defensive rebound rate) and protected the rim (#2 in block rate) at an extremely high level. Without him, JUCO transfer Bryce Hunt steps into that role; Hunt was a terrific shot-blocker at Schoolcraft College, but he’s only 6’7. Dixon will need to squeeze some minutes out of Domantas Sakickas and Kenan Sarvan, as well.

Bottom Line: Dixon seemed destined to make a breakthrough in the MEAC last year, but the Eagles couldn’t carry their outstanding non-conference play through into 2020. Still, the Eagles are improving, they have a veteran roster, and players seem to want to play for him given his solid recruiting track record (heck, Justin Steers even boomeranged back to the program after leaving a year ago). The spotty outside shooting could again be a flaw in Dixon’s system, but Clayton, Thomas, and Tarke will ensure that the Eagles are a feisty opponent regardless.

7. Florida A&M

Key Returners: MJ Randolph, Evins Desir, D.J. Jones, Kamron Reaves, Jamir Williams (injury), Bryce Moragne
Key Losses: Rod Melton Jr., Nasir Core, Brendon Myles
Key Newcomers: Keith Littles (JUCO), Jalen Speer, Johnny Brown (JUCO), Jai Clark (JUCO), Tre Howard III (JUCO), Lenzy Hancock Jr., Jahvon Smith

Lineup:

Outlook: As the coronavirus threatens non-conference play for college basketball – particularly for smaller schools like the MEAC, where UMES has already opted for a league-only slate – Florida A&M may actually breathe a sigh of relief. Coach Robert McCullum put together a gauntlet of schedule in 2019-20 that featured a trip out to California/Hawaii in November to start the season and a trip to the Pacific Northwest right before Christmas. Oh, and scattered around those were five power conference road games. Just look at this absurdity (note: zero home games until January 11th):

Hey, at least FAMU was battle-hardened enough to pull off a stunner at Hilton Coliseum on New Year’s Eve!

This year will be far more geographically concentrated, and McCullum will hope the massive decrease in travel can boost the Rattlers’ anemic shooting percentages. They struggled across the board (336th in eFG%), and the lack of shooting (352nd in 3PA rate) and ball movement (343rd in assist rate) made them relatively easy to defend. Even more alarming: the only shooter of note, Rod Melton, is gone.

That opens up massive opportunities for newcomers Keith Littles, Jai Clark, Johnny Howard, and Jalen Speer. Littles and Clark were legitimate snipers last year in junior college; Littles buried 76 triples at a scintillating 48.7%, while poured in 96 makes at 42.5%. Brown is also a JUCO import, and he adds “stretch four” element that McCullum hasn’t had in Tallahassee. Speer, a freshman, can also knock down perimeter shots, and he could seize some point guard minutes from veteran Kamron Reaves. Reaves has been a black hole of inefficiency in three college seasons, registering offensive ratings of 67.9 and 75.6 the last two years, both of which are abominably bad.

If that group can open up the court more with the threat of shooting, it opens up the paint for the team’s most productive returners, including wing MJ Randolph and big men Evins Desir and D.J. Jones. Too often, foes were able to pack the paint, and the Rattlers ended up taking the 3rd-highest rate of mid-range jumpers in the entire country, per Hoop-Math. Jones was the biggest culprit, as a full 67.4% of his shots came in that range, which is unacceptable for a player of his size and athletic gifts. Randolph too often fell into this trap, as well, especially considering how great he is at drawing contact inside (40th nationally in free throw rate).

Desir, on the other hand, lives at the rim. He’s a load on the block, clocking in at 6’8, 300 pounds, and he threw opponents around like rag dolls when he was able to get the ball inside:

McCullum runs almost no pick-and-roll, instead employing perhaps the highest frequency of off-ball screening and motion in the entire MEAC (as you can see in the above clip). That action becomes even more deadly with shooters buzzing around a beast inside (think Purdue’s motion around Trevion Williams), but intelligent opponents simply sagged down and prevented Desir’s catches, which makes improved spacing all the more important.

Similar to his propensity to run more motion than his MEAC counterparts, McCullum is also the most devout man-to-man acolyte on the defensive end. While admirable, it may not be the best route to success in a league that relies hugely on penetration and – like FAMU itself – struggles to hit shots from the perimeter. The Rattlers allowed 55.2% shooting from inside the arc in MEAC games, the worst mark in the league, while also sending foes to the free throw line too frequently (9th in free throw rate). McCullum has some talented defenders – Bryce Moragne is a physically powerful wing, freshman guard Jahvon Smith gets after it as well, Jones should be a dominant MEAC defender, JUCO center Wylie Howard could be an impactful shot-blocker – but it might be prudent to throw more zones at league opposition.

Bottom Line: McCullum targeted the team’s biggest weakness in the offseason (shooting), and the Rattlers have the makings of a solid offense with Randolph’s slashing and Desir’s post presence. Clogging the driving lanes needs to be a higher priority on the defensive end, especially in MEAC games, but the team’s perimeter pressure clearly bothered foes at times (forced 18 turnovers in the shocking win at Iowa State). FAMU has the upside to finish higher than this if the pieces fit together and the newcomers knock down jumpers, but the rest of the league has also participated in the offseason arms race for talent, making it difficult to climb the standings.

Tier 3

8. Bethune Cookman

Key Returners: Joe French, Justyn King, Jordan Preaster
Key Losses: Cletrell Pope, Isaiah Bailey, Malik Maitland, Leon Redd, Wali Parks, Houston Smith
Key Newcomers: Matthew Mondesir (Central Arkansas), KJ Simon (Troy), Collins Joseph (JUCO), Jeff Coulanges (Wagner), Alex Ismail (JUCO), Calvin Poulina (JUCO), Mikey West, Khalyl Simmons

Lineup:

N/A - not playing this year

Outlook: This preview was already finished before Bethune-Cookman opted out of the season, so why not include it for posterity? Nothing in it will be wrong!!

Last year was supposed to be the home run year for Ryan Ridder and the Wildcats. It was Ridder’s third season, and his impressive talent accumulation had finally culminated in a roster with six highly productive seniors, three of whom had earned all-conference honors in their most reason seasons. Of the 150 available starts in Bethune-Cookman’s 30 games, 132 (88%) were made by those seniors, and Ridder had to feel confident in his veteran squad entering the MEAC Tournament. Alas, that tournament never happened, and Ridder had to watch helplessly as his talented group departed without a final crack at the NCAA Tournament.

That disappointment gives way to new hope in the form of three sophomores that cracked the rotation last year, most notably Joe French, a rare lights-out three-point shooter in the MEAC (43.5% on the season). He smartly just lurked on the periphery of Ridder’s transition-heavy attack, sniping from deep while opponents locked on the other threats in the lineup, but he’ll need to take on a much larger role this time around. Fellow 6’5 wing Jordan Preaster was French’s polar opposite: highly assertive and highly inefficient. Still, his experience should prove beneficial, and he’s a long, pesky defender. Justyn King is the only frontcourt player with any meaningful experience, and he’ll be tasked with continuing Bethune-Cookman’s assault on the offensive glass.

The Wildcats will push the pace at every opportunity offensively, but when the pace slowed last year, their best offense was often simply throwing it up on the rim for Cletrell Pope to gobble up and finish. Pope ranked 12th nationally in offensive rebound rate, essentially forming a one-man wrecking crew on the glass, and Ridder will need a boost from JUCO transfers Calvin Poulina and Alex Ismail if King is not up to the task. Poulina was mostly buried behind Florida-bound forward Osayi Osifo last year, so he could be a steal, and the thick Dutchman knows how to throw his body around. Speaking of thick – Ismail is enormous (6’10, 298 pounds), and he should eat against smaller MEAC foes. Keeping up with the Wildcats’ breakneck tempo will be a challenge, though; it helps that he redshirted with BCU last season, getting acclimated to the style and into better shape to play in longer spurts.

Poulina and Ismail are solid, but the sparkly, alluring additions to the Wildcats roster reside in the backcourt, and Ridder will bank on them for scoring pop beyond French. Matthew Mondesir is a burly wing who loves to attack downhill; he’ll be a load in Ridder’s transition onslaught. Mondesir’s bulk should also allow Ridder to play some small-ball, a favorite of his considering his fondness for leaning on the gas pedal. Troy transfer KJ Simon and freshman Mikey West will share ball-handling duties; Simon’s experience and physicality may give him the early edge to start, but West has more straight-line speed. An additional trio of smaller guards – JUCO transfer Collins Joseph, Wagner transfer Jeff Coulanges, and froshy Khalyl Simmons – can all feature as secondary creators, and Ridder’s pace means that any and all of this group can earn significant minutes.

Defensively, Ridder will have to rebuild from the ground up, as Pope was the back-to-back MEAC Defensive Player of the Year thanks to his constant activity level and dominant defensive rebounding. Ismail’s size should allow him to anchor the paint for stretches, but more athletic and versatile lineups with King or Poulina at center are better fits for Ridder’s style. The Wildcats’ defense will again be looking to speed up opposing guards and switch with a collection of rangy wings, hoping to force turnovers and rushed shots. BCU foes converted just 28.0% from deep last year, the 4th lowest rate in the country, so some regression (along with massive roster turnover) could lead to an alarming dip on this side of the ball.

Bottom Line: Considering how much production is gone from a MEAC school, it’s easy to want to just tie an anvil to BCU’s feet and watch them plummet all the way down the standings. Doing so would ignore Ridder’s track record, though, as he assembled an entirely new rotation around Brandon Tabb in his first offseason en route to a 12-4 league debut. French is not on Tabb’s level as a returning star, but he’s a talented piece, and Ridder once again brought in players via all kinds of avenues. The Wildcats may take a step back, but I’ll stop short of dropping them into the MEAC (and, by proxy Division I) cellar.  

Tier 4

9. Delaware St.

Key Returners: Pinky Wiley, D’Marco Baucum (injury), Ameer Bennett, Lance Singh III, Omari Peek-Green, John Stansbury, Myles Carter, Fahim Jenetto, Chris Sodom
Key Losses: John Crosby
Key Newcomers: Zach Kent (Tennessee), Dominik Fragala (JUCO), Martaz Robinson, Shaft Clark (redshirt), Chris Smith

Lineup:

** - Stansbury is recovering from a shoulder injury, per Blue Ribbon, and may not be able to play

Outlook: The good news for Delaware State? The Hornets doubled their MEAC win total from 2018-19. The bad news? That meant going from 2-14 to 4-12 (yaaaay), and they still only won six games overall. Third-year boss Eric Skeeters is finding it difficult to drag the program out of the rut it’s currently mired in, but last year’s team at least showed some positive signs, especially on the offensive end. The Hornets leapt from 352nd in AdjOE to 323rd (a more sizable improvement than it might seem), and that’s enough promise for Skeeters to build upon.

Unfortunately, he has to replace do-everything star guard John Crosby, a one-year rental by way of Dayton who waltzed into Dover and immediately seized control of the Hornets’ sinking ship. He ranked 59th in the entire country in usage, and although his three-point efficiency wilted in conference play, he was clearly an excellent talent in the MEAC, guiding the transition-heavy attack and scoring in bunches via pick-and-rolls and isolations in the half court.

This year’s approach may not be so heavily focused on one player, but Myles Carter became a scoring force during the back of the year, averaging 14.5 PPG off the bench over the final 11 games and leading the MEAC in 3P% (46.2%). He’s not the creator that Crosby was, though, so Skeeters will still need major contributions from four-year starter Pinky Wiley and JUCO import Dominik Fragala to properly initiate the offense and maintain the Hornets’ positive momentum on that end. Delaware State ranked 5th nationally in pace last year, and those two have the speed and mindset to remain in constant attack mode, as does freshman Martez Robinson. The rookie may not command a starting spot immediately, but he has plenty of upside and should still earn some minutes.

Part of what allowed Carter to emerge down the stretch was an injury to John Stansbury, a steady wing who started the first 17 games of the year. He’s more of a complementary player and a defensive presence, but the scrappy junior is still dealing with the after-effects of that shoulder issue. Fortunately, Omari Peek-Green fills a similar niche, and he has the size and versatility to be a lockdown defender as he develops.

Compared to the notoriously thin MEAC frontcourts, Delaware State has a wealth of riches, which should allow Skeeters to tailor lineups to specific opponents. His preferred up-and-down style meshes best with Ameer Bennett and D’Marco Baucum, two burly but mobile forwards. Bennett is a known commodity at this point, but Baucum offers upside, an aggressive offensive rebounder who looked like a possible rising star during MEAC play in 2018-19. He missed all of last season with injury, though, and the team missed his finishing inside.

The more curious pieces up front are two former power conference centers: Zach Kent (Tennessee) and Chris Sodom (Georgetown). Kent was a 3-star recruit for the Vols back in 2017, but he barely saw the floor in Knoxville, prompting a homecoming of sorts back to his native Delaware. He’s bigger and more skilled than most foes he’ll face in this league, and if he delivers on his potential, he could single-handedly elevate the Hornets on both ends of the court. Sodom, meanwhile, could be a dominant defensive force himself if he is able to figure out the speed of the game. He’s enormous (7’3), and a twin towers lineup with Kent and Sodom could be an intriguing experiment thanks to Kent’s ability to shoot and pass, hopefully avoiding a clogged lane. Canadian forward Fahim Jenetto may also be a floor-stretching option, and he started 16 of the final 17 games last year, adding to Skeeters’ enviable depth up front.

Bottom Line: DSU will need to replace Crosby’s prolific production on a “by-committee” basis, but this roster certainly looks like the deepest of Skeeters’ three-year tenure. The Hornets have legitimate size, and if Wiley, Fragala, Robinson, and Carter can give the backcourt some scoring pop, Delaware State could climb out of the bottom 15 nationally for the first time since 2015-16. The leaky defense remains a concern, as the Hornets far too often surrendered a lay-up line of sorts, but the added length should help. Ascending into the MEAC’s middle tier is a reasonable goal for this squad.

10. UMES

Key Returners: Da’Shawn Phillip, Glen Anderson, Walter Prevost, Bruce Guy, Kevon Voyles
Key Losses: A.J. Cheeseman, Bryan Urrutia, Ahmad Frost, Gabriel Gyamfi, Canaan Bartley (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Donchevell Nugent (JUCO), Nathaniel Pollard Jr. (JUCO), Mike Mensah (JUCO), Zion Styles (JUCO), Mayo Akinsanya (JUCO), Jair Currie, Tay Solomon

Lineup:

Outlook: UMES remained trapped in the pits of Division I hell last year, finishing in the bottom 5 of KenPom’s rankings for the 3rd consecutive season. The offense was abysmal, undermining relatively significant improvement on the defensive end, and UMES may be doomed to a similarly frustrating fate on that end this year. Before I go full apocalypse on the poor ol’ Hawks, though (hey, I’m not picking them last in the league!), let me inject some hope into this intro: it’s year two for Jason Crafton, and for a Hawks team that’s had a different head coach in three straight seasons, that continuity on the sideline could be pivotal in finding some stable footing as a program.

Last year’s 5-27 record doesn’t lend a ton of hope, and Crafton’s 47-108 ledger over six seasons at D-II Nyack adds fuel to the failure flames, but the Hawks’ marked defensive improvement is the starting point for any 2020-21 optimism. The Hawks ranked 7th of 11 teams in KenPom’s AdjDE during MEAC play, using a generous helping of zone and an opportunistic perimeter style to rank 81st nationally in defensive turnover rate, fueled by defensive whiz Da’Shawn Phillip. Phillip ranked 30th nationally in steal rate and 207th in block rate, using his impressive length and anticipation to consistently get his hands on the ball.  The defense was clearly better with his disruptive presence lurking:

Fellow sophomores Glen Anderson and Kevon Voyles was similarly pesky as on-ball defenders, but Crafton loses his primary paint anchors. The only returner from the frontcourt rotation, Walter Prevost is an adequate space-eater, but he’s a terrible two-way rebounder for his size, which means JUCO transfers Nathaniel Pollard and Mayo Akinsanya will need to contribute immediately. Pollard is slightly undersized, even for the MEAC, but he averaged a double-double for a decent Eastern Arizona squad, so he’ll be first in line to get significant minutes. A fourth sophomore, Bruce Guy, can also eat minutes as the nominal power forward, and he does have some defensive upside.

Unfortunately, even if the newcomers maintain some resistance on the inside, the Hawks’ glaring offensive flaws will linger like the smell of microwaved fish in an office kitchen. Pick a distance from the basket, and UMES posted miserable percentages from there. The Hawks ranked 343rd nationally in free throw percentage, 349th in 2P%, and 352nd in 3P%, converting on an unconscionable 25.0% from deep. Anderson is the only returner to make over 22.0% of his threes last year (yes, you read that right), an issue which is exacerbated by the amount of zone played throughout the conference.

Donchevell Nugent should step in as the starting point guard after guiding Clarendon College to a 29-3 record last season; “Tuka” is a savvy floor general who buried 38% of his triples. Mike Mensah and Zion Styles were both productive JUCO products last year, and freshman Jair Currie will be given a chance to earn minutes if he flashes some offensive pop. Jahmal Wright is another former JUCO transfer with size on the wing; he sat out last season with injury. Phillip’s defensive prowess makes him a safe bet to retain his role, but Voyles, Anderson, and Guy could all be pushed down the pecking order if they don’t show improvement offensively. Prevost and Pollard could also from an efficient duo on the interior, though they’ll mostly rely on the offensive glass and drop-offs from the guards for points.

Bottom Line: It’s been an arduous process, but UMES could finally dig out of the country’s bottom five this year. That requires significant immediate impact from Nugent, Pollard, and a couple others, but Phillip can evolve into a wrecking ball defensively, and the Hawks should be able to rely on that end of the court once again. Crafton’s process may not have been pretty in year one, but with (hopefully) some additional offensive punch, UMES is slowly getting the ball rolling in the right direction.

Tier 5

11. South Carolina St.

Key Returners: Tariq Simmons, Trushaun Moorer
Key Losses: Damani Applewhite, Ian Kinard, Tashombe Riley, Zach Sellers, Jahmari Etienne, Ozante Fields, Rayshawn Neal (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Brandyn Manning (JUCO), Themus Fulks, Latavian Lawrence, Majok Madal (JUCO), Floyd Rideau Jr., Sebastian Guitian (JUCO), Darjawuan Brown

Lineup:

Note: as far as I can tell, South Carolina State is the only program without an official 2020-21 roster posted.

Outlook: UMES and Delaware State have been locked in an epic three-year battle for reverse-supremacy at the bottom of the MEAC (with a cameo from Howard last year), but that competition welcomes a new entrant this year: South Carolina State, whose senior-laden roster saw massive attrition this season; only 17 combined starts return (16 by one player). The particularly concerning part is that last year’s veteran roster – #1 in the entire country in experience, per KenPom – was pretty disappointing in itself, mustering just an 11-18 overall record (6-10 in the MEAC) and a 339th-place finish nationally in KenPom’s rankings (340th in T-Rank, 340th in Haslametrics).

The defense could be the country’s worst, as Garvin has very little size (and what he does have is desperately unproven). Garvin’s Bulldogs have been consistently poor on the defensive end; last year’s AdjDE rank of 335th is somehow the program’s best in the past four seasons. To his slight credit, Garvin makes an effort to mix defenses and put the opponent off balance, but the inability to prevent foes from getting to (and finishing at) the basket has been a massive flaw:

It seems unlikely that gets fixed this year, as this roster’s collection of bigs is less than inspiring. Majok Madal has size, but he was only decently productive for a dreadful JUCO squad last year, so freshmen Jemal Davis and Dallas James may be forced into immediate minutes, ready or not. James, the rare 7-footer in the MEAC, has intriguing pedigree as the son of longtime NBA journeyman Jerome James. He should be a stout paint presence over the course of his career at SC State, though his rookie year will likely have some growing pains.

After several years where the team ran most of its offense through forwards Damani Applewhite and Tashombe Riley, Garvin may shift to a more perimeter-oriented attack to play up the strengths of his squad. JUCO transfer Brandynn Manning and true freshman Themus Fulks will find ways to score, and Garvin should unleash them both in more pick-and-roll action to get them going downhill when possible. Both are compact guards who can operate on or off the ball, and being able to attack mismatches with either one should give the offense an edge. Fulks fits the “diamond in the rough” recruiting bill as a player who was overlooked while at a school with multiple other Division I signees (and one that went pro).

Tariq Simmons is the only returner who played real meaningful minutes last season, though Trushaun Moorer and Rahsaan Edwards may be forced into bigger roles considering the massive losses to graduation. The best version of this Bulldogs team keeps those guys in limited roles, though, with Manning and Fulks leaned on more heavily for creation.  

Garvin did attempt to add some athleticism at the wing/forward spots, and two other freshmen – Latavian Lawrence and Floyd Rideau Jr. – both will have the chance to start. Lawrence opted to stay in-state at South Carolina’s only public HBCU program, and he showed his considerable upside on the football field, as well. Rideau is a lanky slasher with some promising defensive tools, as well. Omar Croskey is in the same vein as Moorer and Edwards as a returner who may get passed by the newcomers, while Quamain Nelson is the only real “power forward” on the roster and will hopefully benefit from redshirting with the team last year.

Bottom Line: There’s two sides to the SC State coin: is losing the entirety of a core that never even finished .500 in the MEAC an “addition by subtraction” thing, or will it cause the Bulldogs to crater towards/all the way to the very bottom of the country? Though I like Fulks quite a bit, and Manning has some game, it’s hard for me to get excited about this squad. The defense could be a lay-up line unless James and/or Madal are able to fix the team’s rim protection, and with very little hope that the offense will be better than last year, I’m worried the Bulldogs plummet to the depths of Division I in a major transition year for the program.