-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: De’Torrion Ware, R Sr., Morgan State
Coach of the Year: Robert Jones, Norfolk State
Newcomer of the Year: Eric Boone, Sr., North Carolina Central
Freshman of the Year: TJ Madlock, South Carolina State

Tier 1

1. Norfolk St.

Key Returners: Jalen Hawkins, Joe Bryant Jr., Tyrese Jenkins, Chris Ford, Daryl Anderson
Key Losses: Devante Carter (transfer), JJ Matthews, Kashaun Hicks, Mustafa Lawrence (transfer), Kyonze Chavis
Key Newcomers: Christian Ings (Rider), Dana Tate (Siena/Rhode Island), Kris Bankston (Little Rock), Terrance Jones (JUCO), Cahiem Brown (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: For the 2021-22 season, MEAC head coaches and information directors selected Norfolk State as the preseason favorite. That’s absolutely a legitimate choice, especially considering that Robert Jones has never finished worse than last year’s 8-4 in league play (by win percentage). It may also have been a small “thank you” for claiming the MEAC’s first NCAA Tournament win since 2015. The Spartans knocked off Appalachian State in the First Four, earning the conference a piece of that sweet, sweet money pie.

And if it wasn’t, then it is now, because I said so!

Jones and the Spartans lose Devante Carter and several other key pieces, but they were one of the deepest teams in the sport last year. That means that, along with several tantalizing transfers, the Spartans have enough back to reign atop the league once again.

Norfolk was rock solid on both ends of the court, but we’re going to start with the defense. That has been Jones’ bread and butter over the last five seasons:

Jones is a master mixologist on this end, serving a varied menu of zone and press cocktails that keep opponents off balance and away from easy shots at the rim. In the backcourt pairing of Joe Bryant and Jalen Hawkins, he has two returning ballhawks to unleash in those schemes, and each player brings something different to the table. Bryant is a stoutly-built 6’1, 225 pounds, using his physicality to bully smaller guards. The 6’2 Hawkins, on the other hand, is lithe and lanky.

Jones can play them with incoming point guard Christian Ings, a pest himself who could thrive while taking over Carter’s role. Otherwise, Jones can go bigger and slot Daryl Anderson or Tyrese Jenkins on the wing, both of whom are rangy 3/4 ‘tweeners. Junior college guards Terrance Jones and Cahiem Brown will also be in the battle for minutes at the top of Jones’ zones, and Brown’s frame makes him the more likely candidate.

The Spartans should also be sturdy in the paint despite the loss of JJ Matthews. Chris Ford could blossom into the best rim protector in the league with more minutes – that is, if newcomers Kris Bankston (Little Rock) and Dana Tate (Rhode Island/Siena) don’t seize primary roles immediately. Bankston carries a junkyard dog mentality with him everywhere he goes, while Tate is a former A-10 recruit who possesses a ton of skill for his size. He just needs to keep his head on straight after a rocky past year and a half: he entered the portal after Rhode Island suspended him in fall 2019, then got dismissed by Siena in December 2020. Yoro Sidibe and Nyzaiah Chambers will also compete for minutes, but they lack the upside of Ford, Bankston, and Tate.

Bankston and Tate could become nightmares for opponents offensively, as well. Bankston led the entire country in FG% back in 2018-19 (81.0%!!), using his strong frame and opportunistic mindset to find easy buckets. His ability to draw contact should also fit snugly into Jones’ approach. Tate has inside-out scoring potential, and his ability to attack off the bounce at 6’7, 220 pounds is exceedingly rare in the MEAC.

Norfolk State can also space the floor better than any other team in the conference. Hawkins (43.8%), Anderson (44.1%), Bryant (38.1%), and Jenkins (35.6%) can all fill it up from beyond the arc, and Brown is no slouch. Like his predecessor Carter, Ings is not much of a shooter, but that matters a lot less when he’s the one creating with the ball in his hands.

Jones wants to get out and run in transition whenever possible and then play out of ball screens once stuck in the half court. Carter was rock solid in ball screens, so Ings (and possibly Bryant) will have big shoes to fill. Ings was effective in that role for Rider, particularly in feeding the roll man:

He should develop a profitable connection with Bankston in such looks, especially with defenses forced to stay with the Spartans’ shooters. Bryant dazzled in a smaller PnR sample size, so Jones will have the luxury of multiple initiators.

Bottom Line: It’s easy to focus on what left the Spartan locker room – especially Carter – but the returners and newcomers might actually constitute an even more talented group. Jones is a lock to win 11+ league games (he’s done it every time Norfolk has had a full season, a perfect 7-for-7), and with the MEAC Tournament once again in Norfolk at nearby Scope Arena, Jones & Co. have an added edge come postseason play. You cannot go wrong with any of the MEAC’s top three – each squad is terrific in its own right.

2. Morgan St.

Key Returners: Trevor Moore, Sherwyn Devonish, Malik Miller, De’Torrion Ware, Lagio Grantsaan, Naseem Khaalid***
Key Losses: Troy Baxter, Tajh-Malik Campbell
Key Newcomers: Seventh Woods (South Carolina), Myles Douglas (St. Joseph’s), Keith McGee (New Mexico), Collin Nnamene (Mount St. Mary’s)

*** - It sounds like Khaalid will miss the entire season due to injury.

Lineup:

Outlook: Kevin Broadus has clearly been taking notes.

After LeVelle Moton (NC Central) and Robert Jones (Norfolk St.) have largely dominated the MEAC over the past decade or so with a flurry of down-transfers, Broadus clearly saw the model for success. He quickly went to work, bringing in players from Cincinnati, Jacksonville St., Wake Forest, Saint Joe’s/South Florida, and FGCU/UNLV in his first two years. Not all of those guys panned out, but they didn’t need to: two or three dominant players can take over in this league.

That’s exactly what happened last year, as the Jacksonville St. transfer (De’Torrion Ware) and the SJU/USF import (Troy Baxter) become the most dominant inside-out combination in the conference. The Bears had their best season since 2014, nearly earning the MEAC’s NCAA Tournament berth before falling short in the title game to – guess who – Norfolk State. Ware is back, and with several other key pieces returning around him plus a new crop of down-transfers, Morgan State is once again a threat atop the league.

Broadus uses almost no pick-and-roll in his offense, ranking 345th of 347 teams in Synergy’s measurement of “PnRs including passes.” Instead, the Bears push relentlessly in transition, and once forced to play in the half court, they rely more on off-ball motion and isolation. Ware is essential for that style, a deadly 1v1 player who can also get boiling lava hot from beyond the arc. He was at his best down the stretch last season, pouring 25+ points in four of the Bears’ final seven contests. Defenders didn’t stand much of a chance when he got going:

Ware was clearly more comfortable coming off the bench; shockingly, he only started two games. That did not stop him from wowing statistically – via KenPom.com:

That’s what happens when you rank 1st in the league in usage, 9th in true shooting %, 8th in offensive rebound rate, 7th in defensive rebound rate, 21st in assist rate, and 4th in steal rate. Quite simply, he’s a terror, whether he starts or not.

Backcourt mates Sherwyn Devonish and Trevor Moore were no slouches either. Moore proved to be an effective complementary scorer, while Devonish calmly guided the offense in a low-usage role. Devonish has now started 82 of his 83 career games for the Bears. Plus, wing Malik Miller might have the highest motor in the conference, a 6’4 banshee who dominated the glass on both ends and ranked 7th in the MEAC in both steal and block rate.

Broadus’ spread system is especially effective because of the presence of stretch bigs. Lagio Grantsaan has a smooth stroke, and the departed Baxter also knocked down 35% of his triples – not exactly fair considering he was probably the best athlete in the league.

Baxter’s departure cannot be emphasized enough. The on/off numbers for Baxter and MSU were staggering:

Grantsaan’s return as a super senior provides some stability, but Broadus will be banking on newcomers Myles Douglas and Collin Nnamene for major minutes. Douglas struggled mightily in the A-10, but the step down to the MEAC could be exactly what he needs to thrive. Nnamane was a role player for Mount Saint Mary’s, but he’s an active rebounder and bouncy athlete, so he could help cover Baxter’s absence on the defensive end, at least. Chad Venning is the resident center, but his readiness to play big minutes is up for debate.

Broadus’ other alternative is playing smaller, sliding Miller, Ware, or Moore down to the nominal four-man spot and loading up with guards. He has plenty of options, with Seventh Woods chief among them. The former heralded UNC recruit has finally landed at a level more appropriate for his skill level, and he could dominate in his new digs. For the record: Seventh is in his sixth year, now at his third school, and I’m the thousandth person to make this joke. Fun!

Keith McGee is another former high-major player who brings a lights-out shooting stroke, while Isaiah Burke has intriguing potential but missed out on a freshman year due to injury. In the same vein, Naseem Khaalid is already done for the season – fortunately, depth is aplenty.  

If there’s any concern with the Bears, it’s on the defensive end, where Baxter’s absence is only part of the worry. The Bears’ in-your-shorts pressure forced a gaggle of turnovers and helped limit D-I foes to 29.9% shooting from beyond the arc, but regression may lurk in that number. MSU does make opponents uncomfortable and possesses intimidating perimeter length and athleticism, but sub-30% is likely unsustainable.

Bottom Line: Morgan State is again one of the clear top three teams in the conference. With Ware’s explosive scoring repertoire, Devonish’s steady presence at point guard, and a bevy of options around them, taking the Bears as the preseason favorite would be an entirely reasonable stance. Broadus does need to sort out how to replace a MEAC monster in Baxter, though. At this point, I’ll give Jones/Norfolk a slight nod over Broadus/Morgan and Moton/NC Central, but the margins are slimmer than slim.

3. North Carolina Central

Key Returners: Nicholas Fennell, Alex Caldwell
Key Losses: CJ Keyser, Deven Palmer, Jamir Moultrie, Jordan Perkins, Justin Whatley, Mike Melvin
Key Newcomers: Eric Boone (Georgia Southern), Kris Monroe (Providence), Randy Miller Jr. (Indiana St.), Marque Maultsby (New Hampshire), Cameron Butler (JUCO/D-II), Dontavious King (Charleston), Asanti Price (JUCO), Ja’Darius Harris (JUCO), Samuel Keita (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: If you want to be fully literal about it, yes, last season “happened” for North Carolina Central. It happened in the same sense that Ben Simmons “attending college” happened, which is to say – merely in name only. LeVelle Moton’s Eagles managed to play just five games before February due to COVID massacring their plans.

When they did get on the court, the lack of practice became flagrantly obvious, as a normally well-coached squad looked alarmingly disjointed and unconnected on both ends of the court. Moton claims the team only held 13 practices the entire season, a staggeringly low total considering the season was four months long.

So yeah – if you are interested in sweeping takeaways from the 2020-21 version of NCCU, feel free to look elsewhere. We’ll be flushing that lost year down the toilet like a pet goldfish.

Moton mostly did the same in terms of roster construction, bringing back just one starter and two bit players from last year. Per usual, he raided the transfer portal for pieces. With the explosion of entrants, Moton came away with an impressive collection of dudes capable of making a run at the MEAC crown.

His best teams thrive on the defensive end, particularly via perimeter pressure and making foes uneasy in their ball-handling. Moton found the perfect tone-setter for such a strategy in Eric Boone. The Georgia Southern transfer is a demonic defender, ranking 9th nationally in steal rate while living in the nightmares of opposing guards like Freddy Krueger:

I believe the kids call that “taking his cookies,” which makes Boone a veritable cookie monster.

Around him, Moton can deploy multiple options with length and upside. Nicholas Fennell is the lone returning starter, a wiry wing with disruptive instincts, and both Marque Maultsby (New Hampshire) and Asanti Price (JUCO/Georgia Tech) could thrive in Moton’s system. Price is especially intriguing thanks to his size and high-major pedigree.

Another common theme in Moton’s successful squads is physical frontcourts, and last year’s roster had essentially zero interior weapons. To that end, Moton nabbed two transfers from Division I (Providence’s Kris Monroe and Charleston’s Dontavious King) and two from elsewhere (Cameron Butler from D-II, Samuel Keita from JUCO). The former two possess the highest upside. Monroe screams versatility; he just needs to find confidence after living under a Dunkin’ Donuts Center rock. King, meanwhile, is a 240-pound brute who can dominate in the paint and on the glass:

He’s actually quite mobile, as well. Unfortunately, “in foul trouble” is his natural state – who knew committing nine fouls per 40 minutes would be a problem?

As a group, those bigs will be primarily responsible for remedying NCCU’s total inability to get easy baskets. Without a go-to scorer inside and minimal offensive rebounding, it’s no wonder the Eagles’ 2P% plummeted to its worst mark in since Moton’s debut in 2009-10:

Offensively, Moton will hand Boone the keys to the car, and the aggressive slasher needs to become a better finisher for the Eagles to thrive. He has a legit jump shot (38.5% from deep in Sun Belt play), but too often he settled for shaky mid-rangers, where he converted an appalling 27.3%. Boone struggled most when opponents forced him to get his own shot; in PnR settings, he ranked in the 25th percentile as a scorer but the 82nd percentile as a passer (Synergy). Thus, he should find some major relief in having more potent teammates around him.

Most notable among those teammates is Randy Miller Jr., who boomerangs back to Durham after a stint at Indiana State. He used a smooth outside stroke to become a double-digit scorer the last time he was at NCCU. Price oozes potential, as well, and former SEMO transfer Alex Caldwell provides another on-ball option behind (or alongside) Boone. Fennell is one of the better slashers in the entire conference. And like Price, Ja’Darius Harris took a circuitous route to NC Central, beginning at UT Martin before a stop at JUCO last year. His quickness and outside shooting will be a boost off the bench.

Bottom Line: Forget that last season was Moton and NCCU’s worst since joining the MEAC in 2011. This is an entirely new year with a rejuvenated roster and (hopefully) no COVID cancellations or extended quarantines. The transfer core that Moton brought in puts NCCU’s talent level right near the top of the league, and he’s simply too sharp of a coach to expect another dismal finish in the standings. Norfolk State and Morgan State get the nod for now, but the Eagles are lurking dangerously.

Tier 2

4. Coppin St.

Key Returners: Nendah Tarke, Kyle Cardaci, Justin Steers (injury), Reggie James (injury)
Key Losses: Anthony Tarke, DeJuan Clayton, Koby Thomas, Yuat Alok, Kenan Sarvan
Key Newcomers: Jesse Zarzuela (JUCO), Mike Hood (Montana St.), Nathaniel Stokes (Bryant), Remy Lemovou (JUCO), Alex Rojas (JUCO), Greg Spurlock, Daniel Titus (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: The 2017 hiring of Juan Dixon at Coppin State was met with plenty of fanfare, and rightfully so. Dixon is a legend in the DMV area, and it seemed inevitable that the national champion at Maryland would eventually get the Eagles rolling in the right direction. Sure, he had extremely limited coaching experience. But his charisma and status resonated as a key to getting players in a league that’s often won by whoever can acquire the best down-transfers.

Turns out, it just took a little time for Dixon to get his flight path plotted out. His first three seasons were not kind – 24-72 overall, 19-29 in MEAC play – but in year four, he found the right blend of players and style for the Eagles to take off. Most crucially, he kept leaning harder and harder on the accelerator:

That turbo tempo launched the Eagles to their first top 300 KenPom finish since 2014, and more importantly, their first MEAC winning record since 2012. They even tied Norfolk State for a share of the MEAC Northern Division title.

Four of the top five per game scorers are gone, and the losses of Dejuan Clayton (First Team All-MEAC) and Anthony Tarke (MEAC Player of the Year) loom especially large. Clayton was a four-year starter at point guard, and Tarke’s ability to grab-and-go off the defensive glass fueled Dixon’s transition onslaught. The Eagles collapsed when either left the court:

A new duo rises into those key roles, and fortunately for Dixon, it’s another star point guard (JUCO transfer Jesse Zarzuela) and Tarke’s younger brother (Nendah Tarke). Zarzuela stuffed the stat sheet for Missouri State-West Plains (22.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and shot a ludicrous 54.1% from beyond the arc. He can get anywhere he wants on the court, and he’ll be the maestro of Dixon’s pick-and-roll scheme once in the half court. Meanwhile, the multi-skilled Tarke claimed the MEAC’s Freshman of the Year honors in his rookie campaign. To be clear, they almost certainly will not replicate the production of Clayton and the elder Tarke, but The New Duo™ forms a terrific foundation.

Zarzuela’s lights-out shooting will be especially welcome for a team that ranked 309th nationally in 3P%. That was especially problematic considering the Eagles took the 3rd-highest share of triples in the entire country. Kyle Cardaci returns as basically the only competent shooter (40.3%), though Tarke (32.8%) showed some promise. Cardaci will tussle with Mike Hood for a starting gig, though Hood never found his stroke at Montana State after burying 90 triples for Southern Idaho in 2019-20. Versatile community college newbie Alex Rojas is a wild card after sitting out last season, as is Isaiah Gross, who battled injuries as a froshy. Reggie James and Greg Spurlock are fringier options.

Regardless of who plays, Dixon will likely continue to emphasize slashing to the rim and drawing contact. Coppin State ranked 2nd nationally in the entire country in free throw rate last season, an area in which Nendah Tarke excels. In MEAC play, the Eagles took 362 free throws compared to opponents’ 215, a gargantuan gap that buoyed their relative efficiency on both ends.

The mid-January addition of Yuat Alok was also vital to unlocking the Eagles’ potential. The 6’10 center dominated as an interior finisher and shot-blocker, and he was (by far) the team’s best rebounder. Coppin State was an awful rebounding squad last year, and it could get downright dire without Alok inside.

Dixon must assemble a big man rotation from oft-injured boomerang Justin Steers (sat out a year at Rider before returning), Bryant transfer Nathaniel Stokes, Alcorn State transfer Tyree Corbett, Austin Peay transfer Sita Conteh, and JUCO products Remy Lemovou and Daniel Titus. Stokes is mostly a stretch forward, so expect most of the glasswork to come from Corbett, Titus, and Lemovou. Ultimately, though, Dixon values mobility and defensive malleability over intense physicality.

Bottom Line: The Eagles have a ton of bodies vying for minutes, but only Zarzuela and Tarke look like sure bets to be big contributors. The rest of the minutes will be highly coveted, and that competition should breed quality on-court play. Of course, it can also stoke chemistry issues, so Dixon & staff will need to monitor that closely. Coppin State will be hard-pressed to repeat the win-loss successes of 2020-21, but the Eagles will continue to play at a blinding tempo, giving them a chance to fly high once again.

5. Howard

Key Returners: William “Steve” Settle, Kyle Foster, , Khalil Robinson, Jordan Wood, Deven Richmond, Sam Green, Thomas Weaver
Key Losses: Wayne Bristol (transfer), Makur Maker (pro), Rahim Ali
Key Newcomers: Dontarius James (Jacksonville), Tai Bibbs (Columbia), Randall Brumant (Columbia), Elijah Hawkins, Bryce Harris, Ayodele Taiwo

Lineup:

Outlook: I’ll defer to the esteemed Billy Shakespeare for an appropriate title for last season’s Howard Bison: Much Ado About Nothing. One of the more hyped preseason squads never made a dent on the hoops landscape, going 1-4 with a loss to Division II Queens before getting stuck in an interminable COVID shutdown. That ultimately led to Coach Kenny Blakeney and the Bison meekly bowing out of the entire campaign.  

Even before the cancellation, though, Howard was a shell of itself. Ballyhooed Purdue transfer Nojel Eastern did not end up on the final official roster and never took the court. Vaunted 5-star recruit Makur Maker played just 47 forgettable minutes before succumbing to an injury. And the 2020 MEAC Freshman of the Year, Wayne Bristol, missed the entire season with his own injury. Lacking their three best players, the Bison simply were not the beacon of rising HBCU hope many hoped they could become.

Amidst all of that chaos and disappointment, though, several promising signs emerged. The versatile and stretchy young frontcourt duo of Steve Settle and Jordan Wood made a big impression in those five games, showing off their tantalizing potential despite needing to add strength. JUCO transfer Deven Richmond arrived from aptly named Howard CC and immediately looked like a weapon as a physical slasher. And perhaps most notably, a promising point guard tandem emerged between Khalil Robinson, who has been up and down in his career thus far, and small but talented rookie Thomas Weaver. Not bad for only suiting up five times!

The good news kept rolling this summer when Kyle Foster and Sam Green opted to make use of the extra year afforded by COVID. Blakeney also brought in three transfers who could contribute quickly, most notably walking bucket Dontarius James, yet another inside-out frontcourt threat to pair with Settle, Wood, and Green. The other two, Randall Brumant and Tai Bibbs, both played for Blakeney when he was an assistant at Columbia.

Ok, so that’s quite a few pieces. Can Blakeney actually assemble that group into a competitive squad?

The biggest questions surround the defense, where Blakeney’s first two outfits have been bleed-from-the-eyes abominable (2020) and extremely bad (2021). He plays a ton of zone, per Synergy: 47.6% last year, 63.5% in 2019-20, and those alignments have at least held up better than the Bison’s pitiful man-to-man. Their lack of bulk inside has been noticeable, getting blitzed on the glass and at the rim, and even though Settle and Wood have put on weight, that will remain an issue. James is versatile but not an imposing paint presence, and freshmen Ayodele Taiwo and Aljaz Vidmar are probably not ready to contribute yet. Brumant may immediately be the Bison’s most physical player.

At the very least, Howard should have plenty of length at the 2 through 5 spots. Foster is a spindly wing who can be disruptive, and Settle has high upside as a defender thanks to his fluid movement while standing 6’10. Richmond, James, Bibbs, and Green are also capable of defending multiple positions.

On the other end, Howard has a lot of potential as a spread attack thanks to the shooting ability of its bigs. James was an all-conference scoring monster for the Dolphins, while Settle and Wood can also invert the floor. That opens up driving lanes for Robinson, Richmond, and Weaver, plus freshmen Elijah Hawkins (a jet-quick DeMatha Catholic product) and Bryce Harris (a brutish wing). Foster offers additional wing gravity, so Blakeney’s challenge is to figure out how to best utilize the available space.

To that end, Howard has been loathe to use pick-and-rolls, ranking in the bottom 50 nationally in both of Blakeney’s seasons. Instead, the Bison are cut- and handoff-heavy, weaponizing off-ball movement to create advantages for ball-handlers.

Bottom Line: It’s entirely possible this is a “become smitten by the offensive potential, ignore the potential defensive disaster” situations. Howard has multiple intriguing pieces with which to attack defenses, particularly if last year’s small-sample player developments prove sustainable. But Blakeney’s mixture of defenses have mostly been awful, and there’s little reason to believe this group is suddenly going to play more physically or aggressively. The Bison remain a level or two below the MEAC’s terrific trio at this stage. 

Tier 3

6. South Carolina St.

Key Returners: Jemal Davis, Omar Croskey, Latavian Lawrence, Sebastian Guitian
Key Losses: Themus Fulks, Floyd Rideau, Trushaun Moorer, Tariq Simmons
Key Newcomers: Rakeim Gary (JUCO), Edward Oliver-Hampton (Hampton), TJ Madlock, Deaquan Williams (D-II), Cameron Jones (JUCO), Raquan Brown (UNC Asheville)

Lineup:

Outlook: The winds of change were blowing at South Carolina State prior to last year. Murray Garvin had not finished above .500 in the league since 2015-16, and with an outrageously young (337th in experience) roster entering a COVID season, the skies looked ominous. Following a 1-17 campaign where the Bulldogs fell to their worst ever KenPom ranking (353rd), the storm intensified and overwhelmed Garvin, leading to his firing and the hiring of longtime NCAA assistant Tony Madlock.

Madlock has been all over the South, having spent time on staff at Memphis (most recently), Ole Miss, Auburn, UTEP, and Arkansas State. Finally getting a real shot as a head boss at age 51, Madlock can now bring a bevy of coaching influences to bear on his own Bulldogs. His most recent stop on Penny Hardaway’s staff should have an especially large impact:

"I'll take a little bit from each coach and each stop that I've been at and try to put it in and make it a great success to win at a high level," Tony Madlock said. "I'm going to take a lot of things from Penny. He's a guy that knows the game inside and out.”

That means getting up and down the floor, plus flying around defensively with plenty of pressure looks. The tempo will not be a huge change from last year (ranked 40th, per KenPom), and Garvin’s defense only stayed afloat via forcing turnovers (19th nationally in TO rate). Memphis and SCSU both pressed frequently, possibly helping the returning players to adapt:

Madlock will hope that his principles find more success than Garvin’s, though. The Bulldogs do have some returning athletic length in forward Jemal Davis and wings Omar Croskey and Latavian Lawrence, all of whom should fit snugly into Madlock’s scheme.

Note: both Davis and Croskey had the spelling of their first names changed on the team’s official website (Jemel/Jemal, Omer/Omar). I tend to think that’s an error, since every other internet outlet lists them as Jemal and Omar. But if you happen to be a cousin or best friend, feel free to let me know the correct spelling!

A trio of newcomers should further weaponize the new defensive tactics, as well. Edward Oliver-Hampton played for a frenetic Hampton squad, and he has the versatility to be a disruptor. Similarly, Deaquan Williams racked up 64 steals and 65 blocks in a 3+ year career at D-II Lincoln University, and he could be the SCSU version of Memphis’ DeAndre Williams on this end (no relation, though). Finally, coach’s son TJ Madlock has the frame, mindset, and instincts to be a dominant point-of-attack defender at this level; the 3-star recruit held offers from more prestigious programs but chose to play for papa bear.

Size is a concern, though. Dallas James proved unprepared for the speed of the game last year, and Sebastian Guitian will be unavailable for an extended time following offseason surgery. That means the thin Davis and ‘tweener types Oliver-Hampton, Williams, and Quamain Nelson will have to hold down the fort. If opponents beat the initial pressure, expect a layup line at the rim.

The offensive end could have a different look, though, at least according to veteran guard Rahsaan Edwards via this piece from the Times and Democrat:

“The toughest part has been learning a new system…Last year, we were mainly in half-court sets, but this year we’re getting up and down the floor,” (returning guard Rahsaan) Edwards said. “We want to guard 94 feet, so offseason conditioning was important.”

The half-court sets comment is a little erroneous – last year’s SCSU ranked 13th nationally in transition possessions, per Synergy – but nevertheless, Edwards’ message about a new system is well-taken. There may be a learning curve for most of the roster, creating some difficulties early in the year, but the backcourt has some possible offensive options in Edwards, Madlock, mini JUCO import Rasheim Gary, and UNC Asheville transfer Raquan Brown. That gives Coach Madlock multiple attackers to lead the break, especially when the Bulldogs force turnovers.

It also helps to have Croskey and Lawrence running the wings, both of whom should be weapons in the Bulldogs’ tempo. Both players are willing shooters and adept finishers inside, and if Lawrence cleans up his sloppy ball-handling (4 assists, 34 turnovers – YIKES), his efficiency will elevate to acceptable levels.

When slowed in the half court, keep an eye out for Davis and Deaquan Williams as facilitators. The Memphis offense fully realized its potential once DeAndre Williams became the cornerstone, so Madlock may be tempted to find an equivalent at his new digs. Neither Bulldog is as anywhere near as gifted a passer as DeAndre Williams was, though, so Madlock may have to lean on the backcourt if that experiment crashes and burns.

Bottom Line: It was time for a new beginning in Orangeburg, and it’s nice to see Coach Madlock finally given a chance to form a program in his own image. Having a talent like his son TJ join him immediately gives him a chance to find unexpected success early on, as well. If the pressure defense clicks and the Bulldogs’ length gives opponents fits, then SCSU could claw up as far as 4th. More likely, though, is that this is a rebuilding team that remains a year or two away from major progress.  

7. Delaware St.

Key Returners: Myles Carter, Dominik Fragala, John Stansbury, Martez Robinson, Zach Kent, D’Marco Baucum
Key Losses: Pinky Wiley, Ameer Bennett, Shaft Clark
Key Newcomers: Khyrie Staten, Corey Perkins

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year may not have gone well, per se: Delaware State went 3-16 (1-11) and won just one game against Division I competition. But the Hornets did manage to complete a (choppy, pause-filled) season, which is more than 25% of their MEAC foes can say. In that sense, the Hornets succeeded!

Unfortunately, the win-loss record ended the brief Eric Skeeters experiment, as the administration let go of the former UMBC assistant after just three seasons. It’s hard to blame the school after Skeeters amassed a dismal 15-67 (7-37) record over his tenure, and the program is currently mired in the worst stretch of the entire KenPom era:

Of course, winning at DSU is rather difficult. Only borderline-miracle worker Greg Jackson (2000 through 2014) has been able to sustain any kind of success in the program’s 50-year Division I history. Up next in the line of candidates is Stan Waterman, a local high school legend who won 571 games and eight state titles in 30 years at the Sanford School.

At least in terms of experience, Waterman has some clay to mold on the roster. The Hornets return over 75% of their minutes from last season (BartTorvik), 2nd-most in the MEAC. That includes four of the top five scorers, though the one departure is a crucial one. Four-year starter Pinky Wiley was a steadying force since 2017, playing over 34 MPG over the course of 114 appearances in a DSU uniform and running the offense for most of that time.

That burden now likely falls to Martez Robinson, a bigger guard who racked up assists in the Hornets’ first eight games before going down with an injury. He offers added size at the point guard spot and can knock down jumpers, but like most young guards, he needs to clean up his decision-making. Waterman may also turn to one of his former Sanford pupils, freshman Corey Perkins, who is the purest point guard on the squad.

If their youth continues to flare up as an issue, combo guards Dominik Fragala and Myles Carter can babysit the position until one (or both) is ready. Waterman himself was a point guard in his career at archrival Delaware, so there’s a level of expectation for his own lead guards:

“As a point guard… you're sort of the coach on the floor, usually calling out the plays and the sets. And so you are responsible for not only getting yourself shots but getting other people open. You've got to know every position on the floor.” Waterman said. “If you're going to be calling out plays and calling out sets, you've got to understand what kind of defense you're attacking.”

Like Skeeters before him, Waterman aims to play fast, though perhaps not at the turbo tempo of the last two years. That means having a steady force on the ball will be vital.

Carter is the best offensive player on the roster, a smallish scorer who blossomed into an all-conference honoree after initially joining the program as a walk-on. A fully healthy season for John “LJ” Stansbury on the wing would be a lift after he averaged double-figures in the season’s final 10 games. Fragala and freshman Khyrie Staten add more perimeter pop, but the upside for improvement on this end lies mostly with Zach Kent.

A former Tennessee transfer, Kent has intriguing skills while standing 6’10, but too often he simply drifted through games. He’s far too large to be taking just 17% of his shots at the rim, instead opting to live in the mid-range — tanking his efficiency. Del State as a whole was awesome at the rim, but the Hornets never ever got there:

To simplify that graphic: the Hornets took a TON of the shots they were bad at while never taking shots at the rim, aka the ones they were good at. Kent was a huge part of that, and Waterman will need him to play with more physicality on both ends of the floor.

Speaking of both ends of the floor – Waterman may have to remind his players that defense exists, considering how little of it DSU played under Skeeters. The new boss wants to find an identity on this end, and versatile forwards D’Marco Baucum and Ronald Lucas should help. Carter is also a pesky presence, and Waterman can throw out monstrous Chris Sodom for stretches. The 7’3 tower is a shot-blocking menace in the shooting-starved MEAC, though he’s still catching up to most other aspects of the game.   

Bottom Line: Waterman does not expect an immediate turnaround, instead hoping to build Del State into a competitive program via homegrown talent. He was not hired until June, putting him at a disadvantage with recruiting transfers, but he also had some strong thoughts on that topic:

“While you can find some talent in the portal,” Waterman said, “there are also somebody else’s problems in there, too.”

For now, Waterman will look to find some additional success with last year’s holdovers and a couple key freshman additions. You don’t win 571 games and get a court named after you without some pretty superb hoops knowledge, so I am tentatively buying into Mr. Waterman. However, that’s more of a “long-term” buy – this year will likely be a struggle.

8. Maryland-Eastern Shore

Key Returners: Da’Shawn Phillip, Kevon Voyles
Key Losses: Ahmad Frost, AJ Cheeseman, Canaan Bartley, Glen Anderson, Walter Prevost, Bryan Urrutia, Ty Gibson
Key Newcomers: Donchevell Nugent (JUCO), Dom London (Florida Gulf Coast), Nathaniel Pollard (JUCO), Zion Styles (JUCO), Mayowa Akinsanya (JUCO), Lamont Sanders (JUCO), Kohen Thompson (JUCO), Mike Mensah (JUCO), Marko Milivojevic

Lineup:

Outlook: Jason Crafton’s time in charge of the UMES basketball program has not exactly gotten off to the smoothest start. Taking over a team in dire straits, Crafton attempted to cultivate an aggressive defensive identity back in 2019-20, and to a certain extent, it worked. The Hawks finished 52 spots higher in KenPom’s AdjDE rankings than the previous season, using a mix of man and zone to force opponents into mistakes. Unfortunately, the Hawks were a toxic disaster offensively, ranking 352nd of 353 on that end while bricking shot after shot.

Oh, and UMES did not play a single game last year due to the COVID pandemic, one of just 10 squads to take such a drastic step. Tough to build momentum that way!

Bethune-Cookman departed for the SWAC this offseason, leaving UMES as the only MEAC squad that spent all of 2020-21 picking dandelions (Florida A&M left, as well). Only one player – FGCU transfer Dom London – played Division I basketball last season, and the potential for choppiness/sloppiness early in the Hawks’ campaign appears high.

For a team coming off such a frighteningly bad offensive output the last time it took the court, that’s extremely concerning. On the bright side, turning over most of the roster could lift the shooting out of the depths of hell, because it’s almost impossible to be as bad as UMES was in ’19-20: 42.5% inside the arc (349th), 25.0% from beyond it (352nd), 63.1% from the foul line (343rd). The only remaining pieces are Da’Shawn Phillip and Kevon Voyles, tenacious perimeter defenders but prime culprits behind the offense’s inefficiencies.

To infuse some life into the perimeter attack, the Hawks will turn to London and an army of junior college transfers, most notably Donchevell Nugent, Mike Mensah, and Lamont Sanders. Crafton is primarily a disciple of Jay Wright and his coaching tree (Crafton assisted under Billy Lange for an extended time at Navy), and the extreme lack of shooting destroyed any hope at generating similar spacing to his old bosses. Nugent, Mensah, and Sanders all converted over 37.5% of their triples at the junior college level, and both Nugent and Sanders have the ability to put the ball on the floor. London, meanwhile, struggled during his rookie campaign in Fort Myers, but his stroke is smooth, and he has the potential to contribute from deep.

UMES ran one of the lowest shares of pick-and-roll back in 2019-20, instead running some clever action with movement and handoffs to get players the ball going downhill. Unfortunately, opponents could simply throw a zone at the Hawks any time that began to click. With more shooting, perhaps UMES will not be as susceptible to that this time around.

Much like the current iteration of Villanova, UMES will also badly lack impact interior players, with undersized forwards Mayowa Akinsawa and Nathaniel Pollard occupying most minutes in the paint. Kohen Thompson is more of a stretchier option, while 6’10 Canadian Marko Milivojevic may not be ready for D-I hoops; of course, that might not matter – he may get time anyways.

With unproven (at best) perimeter production and scant scoring inside, the Hawks will once again need to bank on their defense to maintain any modicum of overall competitiveness. Phillip is a legitimate force on that end, a switchable weapon with size who ranked 7th in the league in block rate and 4th in steal rate. Only three other qualifying players in the entire country tallied a block rate and steal rate north of 3.5% in 2019-20, and it’s an elite collection of defenders:

Fun trivia: four players accomplished that same feat in 2020-21, none of which were repeats from the above list. They were: Texas Southern’s Michael Weathers, Coppin State’s Anthony Tarke, CSU-Bakersfield’s Taze Moore, and Iona’s Berrick JeanLouis.

Along with Phillip, fellow on-ball pests Voyles and Nugent will be patrolling the perimeter, and JUCO wing/pop culture name machine output Zion Styles profiles as another pesky piece with some strength to his frame, as well.

This group does not have a steady anchor inside like AJ Cheeseman, though, unless Akinsawa or Milivojevic emerge beyond expectations. Thus, Crafton may have to go heavier on the zone looks, and the Hawks’ rebounding could suffer as a result (plus the overall lack of size).

Bottom Line: With very little proven Division I production and such a long competitive hiatus for most of the players, some nightmare scenarios exist for these Hawks; it’s no wonder BartTorvik.com and Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney slot them dead last in the country. Crafton did manage to squeeze a semi-competent defense out of a similarly talent-deprived roster in 2019-20, though, and if several of the newcomers can inject some life (and shooting) into the offense, then perhaps the results will not be as dire as feared. Finishing 6th in the MEAC is probably a realistic and attainable goal.