-Matt Cox

Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Justin Turner, R Sr., Bowling Green
Coach of the Year: Jeff Boals, Ohio
Newcomer of the Year: Michael Nuga, R Sr., Kent State
Freshman of the Year: Josiah Freeman, Western Michigan

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. Bowling Green

Key Returners: Justin Turner, Daeqwon Plowden, Caleb Fields, Trey Diggs, Devin Zeigler
Key Losses: Dylan Frye, Marlon Sierra, Michael Laster, Tayler Mattos
Key Newcomers: Kaden Metheny, Josiah Fulcher, Cam Young 

Lineup:

Outlook:

Falcon fans, rejoice.

The ‘Juice’ was *that* close to getting loose…

Once the most sought-after name on the transfer market, Justin Turner’s about face this summer sent shockwaves throughout the entire Mid-American Conference. Louisville, Missouri, Marquette and Iowa State would’ve been lucky to have him, but Bowling Green is #blessed beyond belief to get their star back in the saddle for one last rodeo. In short, we think Juice’s encore nudges the Falcons to the top of the MAC totem pole.

Don’t let Turner’s blinding star power overshadow the deep stable of wings running alongside him. When Bowling Green’s interior monster Damajeo Wiggins graduated in 2018, Huger decided to double down on speed and versatility. Daeqwon Plowden’s been the biggest beneficiary of this transformation, sprouting into a destructive force on the wing. Once a defensive specialist limited on offense, Plowden’s incrementally added to his offensive arsenal over the years. Now, only Turner’s name precedes him on the opposing scouting report. Polishing a hitch-y jumper unlocked a whole new dimension to Plowden’s game, a deadly addition to his overpowering slashing ability. And when he picks up steam out on the break, all charge takers better beware: 

Plowden’s pliability is his greatest strength, but the newfound shooting stroke gives the Falcons with two pivotal floor spacers (sharpshooting Trey Diggs is the other). 

Davin Zeigler, Caleb Fields, and freshman Kaden Metheny round out the rest of Turner’s perimeter cohorts. They’ll have to pick up Michael Laster and Dylan Frye’s slack, specifically as relivers for Turner’s hefty offensive freight. In Huger’s pick-n-roll centric offense, this trio must be threats attacking ball screens, especially when Turner needs a quick breather or slides off the ball. Per Synergy, only 25 teams in the nation leaned on PnR more often than the Falcons last season: 

Zeigler, a superfreak athlete, is one of three sterling sophomores simmering with upside (sparingly used Chandler Turner and Dylan Swingle are the other notables). The veteran Fields is closer to a finished product, regarded as a defensive-minded pest in the backcourt. Fields’ spot in the rotation is essentially cemented in stone, but a broken jump shot makes him hard to play alongside Juice for large stretches. In a pace and space-oriented offense, Fields only provides the pace, as defenders can easily sag off and collapse on other penetrators. The same limitations apply to Zeigler, too, but he’s still in the fetal stages of his development. The Falcons’ high-flyer shot 78% from the charity stripe last year, proof that significant headroom for outside shooting improvement exists.

While not feared scoring threats, Fields and Ziegler are stingy ballhawks defensively, arming BGSU with three of the top perimeter defenders in the MAC (including Plowden). However, devoid of a reliable counterpunch inside, the Falcons’ defense may suffer the same fate as last year – per KenPom, BGSU checked in with the 3rd worst defense in the conference, largely the fault of weak interior resistance. 

6’10 Joniya Gadson’s absence was a sneaky big blow in this regard, which left the Falcons’ interior frontline rail thin. Dylan Swingle’s alluring size and skill package seduced me last summer, but minor injuries and sporadic playing time left me wanting more from his rookie campaign. The best version of Swingle could lift the Falcons’ offense to new heights – his shooting touch and inside-out scoring package is the modern big man archetype starter’s kit – but how quickly he buys in on the other end will be critical. 

Bottom Line: Turner refusing to take his talents elsewhere sets the Falcons up to be the hunted in another hyper-competitive MAC field. His longtime sidekick Dylan Frye will be sorely missed, but the next wave of guards and wings stepping in behind him are dripping with upside. Question marks need to be answered up front, but the abundance of talent and depth on the perimeter should mask those flaws.

2. Buffalo

Key Returners: Jayvon Graves, Ronaldo Segu, JeeNathan Williams, Josh Mballa, LaQuill Hardnett
Key Losses: Davonta Jordan, Antwain Johnson, Gabe Grant
Key Newcomers: Chanse Robinson, Malik Zachery** (JUCO) 

**According to the Buffalo news, Zachery was arrested and charged with second-degree assault and fourth-degree criminal possession of a weapon stemming from a fight that broke out after an unofficial scrimmage between Buffalo and Canisius players on September 9th

 Lineup:

Outlook: Apologies in advance for any excessive ‘Running of the Bulls’ usage throughout this preview. I can’t help myself. The parallels between the Buffalo’s turbo-paced offense and the annual Pamplona stampede are simply too fun and too apt to ignore… 

When Nate Oats ducked for the SEC last summer, he didn’t just hand the keys to Jim Whitesell. He basically barrel rolled out of a Formula 1 race car doing 185, while Whitesell hopped over the stick shift into the driver’s seat. Once Whitesell took the wheel, he had zero interest in easing off the accelerator – rather, he nearly outran his former boss in a tempo battle last year:

Where Whitesell deviates from Oats is shot selection. Unlike his predecessor, Whitesell isn’t mesmerized by the allure of the 3-point shot. He’d prefer to engage in hand to hand combat on the offensive glass. Buffalo corralled over a third of its misses last year, which ranked inside the top-20 overall and tops in the MAC, per KenPom. 

An effective offensive rebounding team doesn’t require superior height and length. Elastic leapers with a nose for the rock is all that’s needed, traits of which are engraved in Josh Mballa, LaQuill Hardnett and JeeNathan Williams, three of the Bulls’ most productive offensive glass cleaners last year. 6’11 Brock Bertram is an exception to this rule, the closest thing resembling a traditional big on this roster, but he’ll undoubtedly be an asset to Whitesell’s rebounding brigade. As dominant as UB was on the offensive glass, Bertram’s length was sorely missed on the defensive end, especially with Tra’Von Fagan sidelined with an injury of his own. Throw in David Skogman, who redshirted last season, Buffalo’s frontline will run the gamut from hybrid wing (e.g., Williams) to classic big (e.g., Bertram) prototypes.

The question is how Whitesell plans to deploy all these frontcourt assets. At first glance, Whitesell’s affection for running and gunning seems to favor a guard and wing-heavy rotation – thus, making this roster imbalance seem counterintuitive. Last year, Whitesell rarely paired Mballa, Hardnett or Bertram together, instead opting to platoon this trio at the 5 alongside a hybrid forward at the 4 (Williams is the ideal fit here).

Assuming Fagan and Bertram are nursed back to health, Whitesell will have some tough lineup decisions to make given the influx of forward depth. One option is to simply embrace a two-big lineup. Under this decision tree, Whitesell can go a few different directions. He can lever up on the Bulls’ offensive rebounding identity and deploy two monster glass crashers in tandem (Mballa, Hardnett or Bertram), while sliding Williams down to the three. Alternatively, he may stick one of that trio alongside Fagan or Skogman, two virtual unknowns at this juncture. Fagan or Skogman are reportedly confident shooters from 15 to 18-feet out, which could allow Whitesell to space the floor without sacrificing size. Keep in mind that posting up is a foreign concept in this offense – per Synergy, the Bulls ranked dead last in post-up possessions last season – so the ability to score on the block is irrelevant here. Striking the right balance between 1) offensive floor spacing, 2) offensive rebounding and 3) defensive effectiveness in a switchable man-to-man scheme should be the guiding principles for Whitesell’s lineup conundrum. 

From that lens, I’d nudge Whitesell to replicate last year’s speed and versatility and keep the bigs in his back pocket to exploit or counterpunch specific matchups. Williams is the X-factor underpinning all of these tradeoffs. The unorthodoxy of Williams’ game is truly one-of-a-kind, impossible to pigeonhole into any standard positional label. His premier athleticism is at the core of everything he does well on the floor, including rebounding, defending and scoring in and around the rim. He’s still ironing out the jump shot kinks, particularly the long load time, but the enormous leap from 2019 to last season is encouraging.

If Whitesell turns the dial to a smaller look, one of two newcomers will need to emerge in the backcourt as a reliable 3rd fiddle to Jayvon Graves and Ronaldo Segu. Graves’ resume speaks for itself, a reigning 1st Team All MAC recipient and everyday starter for two years running. Graves was a super sub in 2018, the same role Segu assumed last year. Segu was one of Oats’ hallmark recruits, who chose Buffalo over Florida State and VCU coming out of high school. He hasn’t fully lived up to that billing, but he’ll share the stage with Graves in the limelight this year with minimal competition in the backcourt.

Newcomer numero uno is the high-flying Chanse Robinson, who might plant his flag as the Bulls’ best overall athlete the moment he steps on the floor – on this roster, that’s saying something. Robinson was bred for this frenetic system, where his defensive tenacity bears a striking resemblance to the now departed Davonta Jordan. Malik Zachery, another former 3-star recruit, is the other new arrival to the perimeter mix. A fringe top-50 JUOC prospect, Zachery started for a top-10 JUCO team last year.

The resounding theme implicit in nearly every player up and down the roster is speed and athleticism. This shined through in the event-driven defense last year, as the Bulls’ feasted on steals and blocks. However, the aggression can often drift into over aggression territory. The aforementioned lack of elite size played a part in last year’s lackluster interior defense, but the Bulls’ are too flushed with athletes to surrender so many easy buckets inside. Last year, Buffalo checked in with the MAC’s 8th worst 2-point field goal percentage defense.  Statistically speaking, blocks usually correlate with strong rim protection, but the disjointedness in this case points to a lack of discipline in help side awareness, a flaw that’s easily exposed without a shot blocker that bails out broken coverages.

Any lack of cohesion last season should be patched up in Whitesell’s second year at the helm. Still, he’d be wise to consider the benefits a twin tower lineup might reap for the interior defense this year, especially with the bodies now at his disposal. 

Bottom Line: Here’s one way to assess the Bulls’ outlook this year: If you believe last season was a relatively accurate depiction of Buffalo’s true intrinsic value – in other words, they were who you thought they were – then the 2020 campaign boils down to two key factors:

1. how much can the returning pieces improve individually (and collectively)?

2. how much did Davonta Jordan and Antwain Johnson mean to this team’s success last year?

If the positive change in 1) equals the negative impact of 2), then the Bulls will effectively run in place. But if the returning nucleus can elevate their individual games and collectively replenish Johnson and Jordan’s scoring and defensive prowess, respectively, Buffalo might run right to the summit of the MAC mountaintop. 

3. Akron

Key Returners: Loren Jackson, Camron Reece, Greg Tribble
Key Losses: Channel Banks, Tyler Cheese, Xeyrius Williams, Deng Riak
Key Newcomers: Bryan Trimble Jr. (St. John’s), Maishe Dailey (Iowa), Taylor Currie (JUCO), Jermaine Marshall (JUCO), Garvin Clarke

Lineup: 

Outlook: When Nate ‘Overnight’ Oats packed his bags and bolted to the SEC, exuberant sighs of relief were let out all across the MAC. Oats' exodus coincided with the dismantling of the Bulls' juggernaut, undisputedly one of the best teams the league's ever seen. Order was supposed to restore. Parity was supposed to resume. But John Groce and his zesty Zips had other plans…

By mid-January, the cat was out of the bag. Akron steamrolled its first four league opponents by an average of 19 points a game, a validation of two eye-popping efforts against West Virginia and Louisville in the non-conference. Despite fumbling away three games in the latter half of January, the proof was still in the pudding – Akron was the MAC’s gold standard last year.

The Zips’ inferno was ignited by a miniature match, 5'8 dynamo Loren Cristian Jackson. The MAC was an oasis of game-breaking guards last year – see Justin Turner (BGSU), Eugene German (Northern Illinois), Marreon Jackson (Toledo), Antonio Williams (Kent State), Nike Sibande (Miami OH) – but ‘LCJ’ stood the tallest (meh, metaphorically speaking). 

Despite standing 5’8, ‘LCJ’ flirted with an unthinkable 50 / 40 / 90 season, while dishing out a hearty serving of dimes to the rest of his teammates:

• True Shooting percentage: 64% (2PT: 50% / 3PT: 45% / FT: 87%)

• Assist to Turnover ratio: 1.9 (4.5 APG / 2.4 TPG)

It’s no wonder the analytic algorithms portrayed Jackson as one of the most valuable players in all of America. Per basketball-reference, only eight players in the country amassed more Win Shares last year than LCJ. To put that in perspective from a MAC historical lens, only Buffalo’s CJ Massinburg accounted for a larger share of his team's wins since 2010 during Buffalo’s magical run in 2018-19.

Jackson is the impetus of Groce's run and shoot system, but Tyler Cheese and Channel Banks’ marksmanship prevented defenses from clogging the lane and sending multiple defenders at LCJ last year. Replacing these two snipers, who accounted for 105 of the Zips’ 287 triples, sits atop the offseason priority list. They did more than knock down open shots, too – Cheese doubled as a complementary creator next to LCJ, while Banks earned All-Defensive Team honors with his lockdown coverage on the other end of the floor.  

Rising sophomore Greg Tribble is next up in the internal queue, a slithery handler who can bend defenses with penetration. However, Tribble’s inability to shoot it from distance puts an inherent cap on his offensive impact. To combat Tribble’s limitations, Groce tagged Bryan Trimble off the transfer wire, a pudgy shooter from St. John’s who figures to challenge for a starting spot right away. Trimble’s overall 3-point percentage during his two years in the Big Apple (32%) doesn’t jump off the page, but he can catch fire in no time – he just needs some time to heat up (Tribble shot 39% in conference games the last two seasons). Finally, keep an eye on 3-star rookie Garvin Clarke, a jet-quick point guard from Cleveland. He’ll likely spell LCJ as a backup this year, while being tutored as the point guard of the future. 

If someone could forge Xeyrius Williams’ birth certificate so he could retain one more year of eligibility – no, I’m not condoning this – Akron would probably be my pick to win the league. It’s easy to wax poetic about LCJ’s special season, but it’s no coincidence that all three of the Zips’ guard trifecta, Jackson, Cheese and Banks, exploded last year. Williams only shot 31% from long distance, but his sheer reputation as a knockdown shooter stretched out the floor, opening up driving seams for LCJ and other slashers to attack. Williams was an adept slasher in his own right, a true dual threat scorer and mismatch nightmare for opposing MAC wings and forwards.

Prototypical wings at the college level typically fall within the 6'5 to 6'7 height range, but Williams' 6'9 frame made him an outlier among his DI peers. Give Groce credit for weaponizing this pro-level size and skill package to perfection. Defensively, he could switch 3 through 5 without breaking a sweat, thanks to that enviable length and lateral mobility. Luckily, Groce has an abundance of riches to replace Williams – Camron Reece and Ali Ali, both part-time starters last year, and Iowa sit out transfer Maishe Dailey – but Williams was a special breed. Groce faces a daunting rebuilding project in the frontcourt, where Williams and 6’10 Deng Riak fortified the MAC’s best 2-point percentage defense in 2020. Losing Riak to graduation strips the Zips of a true rim protector, forcing the Zips to downsize significantly at the 5 position.

The ace in the hole could be Taylor Currie, a former Wisconsin redshirt who made a one-year pit stop at Mott Community College. Currie ran circles around JUCO defenders, posting gaudy per game averages of 24 PPG and 11 RPG as a teenager. His finishing and shooting touch are well advanced for his age and he’s hyperactive around the rim on both ends. That said, don’t bet the farm on Currie’s defensive impact stacking up with Williams and Riak, but he should be able to hold his own on the boards.

Bottom Line: It’s not often the stars align like they did in Akron last year. Jackson’s ascension to stardom coincided with Williams’ eligibility clearance, while the seasoned senior supporting cast filled in the blanks. It’s also worth pointing that out that the Zips’ superiority over the rest of the MAC slightly diminished down the stretch, partly a function of overdue 3-point shooting regression on both sides of the ball.

Jackson’s back to shepherd this flock of fresh new faces, most of whom check the multi-positional versatility boxes that Groce holds in such high regard. This robust stable of guards and wings will prevent a major slide from last year, but the interior defense is bound to regress with Williams and Riak walking out the door. Extended pressure and perimeter length will force shooters to put it on the deck, but the Zips will struggle to challenge shots at the rim with minimal resistance in the restricted area. 

4. Ohio

Key Returners: Jason Preston, Ben Vander Plas, Lunden McDay, Ben Roderick
Key Losses: Jordan Dartis, Sylvester Ogbonda
Key Newcomers: Rifen Miguel (JUCO), Sam Towns, Collin Granger, Jalen White, Dwight Wilson*** (James Madison) 

*** needs waiver

Lineup: 

Outlook: Poor Jeff Boals. His young Bobcats weren’t built to withstand an avalanche of injuries early on, but that’s exactly what the basketball Gods through at the former Stony Brook head honcho in his first season in the MAC. Ben Roderick, Connor Murrell and Miles Brown were the first dominoes to fall. Nate Springs and Mason McMurray would later join their teammates on the training tables, and Jordan Dartis’ chronic injury demons resurfaced as well. 

Despite the turnstile of available players, Boals directed the brittle youngsters to an 8-10 MAC record. There were few constants in the lineup, but, luckily, the 1-2 punch of Jason Preston and Ben Vander Plas remained relatively unscathed. Boals cut Preston loose last year, putting no boundaries on what his burgeoning maestro could and couldn’t do. Preston’s electric highlight reel hides his turnover tendencies, but that ball security improved over the course of the year. He’s one of the best rebounders at the point guard position in all of college basketball, flirting with a triple-double nearly every time he steps on the floor.   

On the heels of a boom-or-bust rookie campaign, Vander Plas became Preston’s safety valve last year. ‘BVP’ souped-up his offensive skill package across the board, rendering his freshman ‘stretch forward’ label obsolete. His infectious energy will set the tone for this burgeoning sophomore-laden squad, as Preston and BVP must now lead by example as the token veteran voices in the locker room.

Before bursting with optimism around these second-year studs, a quick salute to Jordan Dartis is in order. Despite laboring through multiple injuries last year, a recurring bugaboo throughout his career, Dartis remained a lightning rod for Ohio’s offense. When “the Old Man” missed the entire 2019 campaign with two bad hips, the Bobcats’ offense imploded. The advanced on / off statistics from the 2018 season confirmed how pivotal Dartis was to Ohio’s scoring attack, as shown in the chart below:

Before writing this preview, I expected to see similar splits in Dartis’ impact last year, given the volatility stemming from the young supporting cast. However, the young guns grew up in a hurry and by the time they were healthy and acclimated – coinciding with the onset of conference play – the Bobcats were able to weather the storm when Dartis needed a breather.

Two incendiary scorers, Ben Roderick and Lunden McDay, will take the baton from Dartis this year. Roderick was one of two of the Bobcats’ mega-hyped freshmen last summer, but the injury bug bit him before he could strut his stuff. BenRod found his mojo by mid-February and put the league on notice with a 21-point coming out party against Buffalo. McDay, on the other hand, never garnered Roderick’s hoopla coming out high school, despite hailing from LeBron James’ alma mater, St. Vincent-St. Mary's. But rather than ride the hype wave, McDay just let his game do the talking. He instantly earned Boals’ respect, securing a starting job right from opening night. Throughout the year, McDay’s game-to-game output oscillated in typical freshman form, but his efficiency and self-awareness never wavered. He rarely forced the action and willingly accepted his place in the offensive hierarchy, rising to the occasion in key moments when the Bobcats needed buckets. Together, McDay and Roderick are primed for stellar sophomore years, dubbed as the quasi sharpshooter successors to Dartis.

Knowing Boals’ affection for size and physicality up front, replacing Sylvester Ogbonda will be of utmost importance. The pool of candidates to slide into the forefront is underwhelming, which may prompt Boals to roll with smaller lineups. However, when Vander Plas filled in for Ogbonda at the 5 last year, opposing offenses began licking their chops:

Could JUCO import Rifen Miguel add some muscle? As a rebounder, yes. As a rim protector, eh. He’s a top-100 JUCO prospect, per JUCORecruiting.com, a patient low post operator and confident mid-range shooter, but he’s not known for his verticality as a rim protector. 

Bottom Line: Once the Bobcats stopped breaking like toothpicks during the final three weeks of the season, Ohio fans got a sneak preview of where this team’s headed – up, up and away. If only Dartis and Ogbonda could join the hunt for one more year…

5. Ball State

Key Returners: Ishmael El-Amin, Jarron Coleman, K.J. Walton, Luke Bumbalough, Brachen Hazen
Key Losses: Tahjai Teague, Kyle Mallers, Josh Thompson
Key Newcomers: Reggie Jones (Tulsa), Jalen Windham*** (Creighton), Teemu Suokas 

*** needs waiver

Lineup: 

Outlook: COVID-19 struck the reigning West division champion Cardinals at the worst possible time. Ball State hit the turbo button in late February, winners in four of their final five regular season contests. James Whitford had something special brewing in Muncie, but the pandemic derailed any chance of the Cardinals breaking their recent postseason curse.

Ishmael El-Amin was king-in-waiting last year, accepting his role as a perimeter counterpunch to the Cardinals’ fulcrum, Tahjai Teaue. He’ll now be coronated as Ball State’s go-to-guy, looking to build off last year’s stellar junior campaign. Unlike El-Amin’s predecessor Tayler Persons, El-Amin goes the speed limit on offense. He’s not a ball dominant guard by any means but he was called upon to initiate offense. Alongside two cautious freshmen, Jarron Coleman and Luke Bumbalough, Ball State swerved out of the fast lane last season, relative to the three years prior – the figures below are Kenpom’s national adjusted tempo rankings:

• 2017: 50th

• 2018: 83rd

• 2019: 59th

• 2020: 200th

This controlled pace was the perfect placemat for El-Amin. He was the Cardinals’ most efficient option on offense and late shot clock contingency plan whenever Teague was bottled up. KJ Walton’s bum ankle, which ultimately earned him a 6th year of eligibility this season, put El-Amin, Coleman and Bumbalough front and center.

Coleman and Bumbalough dealt with the expected rookie ebbs and flows, but they look the part as Ball State’s backcourt of the future (Coleman took home MAC Freshman of the Year honors). Coleman’s a long, burly lead guard while Bumbalough’s a crafty combo guard and lights out shooter – though, last year’s percentages tell a different story. Forgive this feeble “eye test” argument, but I’m betting on big leaps for this sophomore duo based on what I saw in multiple games last season. The come from behind victory over Eastern Michigan on February 22nd stands out, when Coleman and Bumbalough accounted for 36 of Ball State’s 64 points. Kani Acree is another malleable sophomore who clocked meaningful minutes last season, playing his best ball of the season down the stretch.

Perimeter shooting will be the key swing factor this season, a shortcoming on last year’s squad. Whitford acknowledges the 3-ball’s importance to the Cardinals’ offense, but that vision hasn’t come to fruition on the floor in recent years. El-Amin is a proven long-range driller, but the Coleman / Bumbalough / Acree trio must capitalize on their chances if Ball State wants to restore balance to the offense.

Ball State hoisted threes at the 11th highest rate in the nation last year, 153 of which came off the hand of Kyle Mallers. However, assuming the drive-centric Walton stays healthy for a full season, that 3-point attempt rate is likely to decline. Competition for perimeter minutes will be fierce with Walton, El-Amin, Coleman, and Bumalough’s minutes set in stone, but Whitford can rotate in whoever has the hottest hand among this stable of shooters off the bench. Finland native Teemu Suokas will be a long way from home when he suits up for the Cardinals this year, but he carries a reputation as a scintillating shooter from his time in Helsinki. 6’6 wing Zach Gunn, who redshirted last year due to injury, is another marksman who could help restock the shooting supply.

While Walton won’t help cure the shooting woes, he makes his pay in other areas, particularly on the defensive end. A healthy and rust-free version of Walton adds another layer of armory to the MAC’s top defensive unit in 2020. However, Teague’s size, mobility and anticipation enabled the Cardinals to deploy press man-to-man coverage on the perimeter across all five positions. The positional value of Teague’s versatility at the 5 will be tough to replace – the MAC coaches deemed him worthy of All-Defensive Team honors last year – but this gang of long, agile guards, aided by Walton’s reinsertion, are capable of setting the tone defensively. 

Whitford tapped into the esteemed Hoosier high school heritage to nab two critical transfers. Reggie Jones, a MAC boomerang who started his career at Wester Michigan, already received NCAA clearance, while Creighton transfer Jalen Windham waits patiently. The 6-foot-7 Jones was a MAC All-Freshman Team member back in 2017, before stepping up in competition at Tulsa. He’s a swiss-army knife type player, in many ways a ‘Tahjai Teague Lite’. 

Miryne Thomas will be in the mix for major run on the wing after finishing last season on a high note. He’s also cut from the ‘3-and-D’ cloth and proved his worth with two stellar outings against Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the last two games of the season. 

Bottom Line: Players like Tahjai Teague don’t come around very often. Whitford utilized him like a queen on a chessboard, moving him all over the floor to pounce on potential mismatches. Removing Teague from the equation may shock the system, but Brachen Hazen may be up to the challenge. The former Arkansas transfer has been Teague’s backup for two straight years. Now, the paint is his to roam. 

Is Hazen the offensive weapon Teague was? No, not even close. But can he be a serviceable, opportunistic scorer, reliable rebounder and useful defender? I’m inclined to think so. Hazen and his frontline comrades don’t need to set the world on fire. They just need to do their jobs night in and night out, while the guards take care of the rest. 

6. Toldeo

Key Returners: Marreon Jackson, Spencer Littleson, Keshaun Saunders, AJ Edu
Key Losses: Willie Jackson, Luke Knapke, Dylan Alderson
Key Newcomers: Seth Millner (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Toledo’s 2019 blast off galvanized MAC observers, fueled by a trademark Tod Kowalczyk offense and a recently renovated defense. New parts were swapped in last summer, but the dials were tuned for a re-launch of that resoundingly successful 2019 campaign.

In hindsight, was the 2020 mission a failure? No, not at all. 17-15 overall (8-10 in the league) is not an Apollo 13 level calamity by any means. Perhaps the standard for success was just out of whack, propped up by recency bias and largely ignorant to the cavernous voids left behind by Jaelan Sanford and AJ Edu. Sanford’s poetic precision was to the offense as Edu’s shot-swatting was to the defense. Stripping away these instrumental pieces left Marreon Jackson and Luke Knapke little help in their respective areas of expertise – and that was only pre-launch. 

Toledo’s short rotation was exposed once the season took flight, exacerbated by a lackluster bench mob and Spencer Littleson’s recurring shoulder injury. Littleson courageously battled through pain, clocking upwards of 30 minutes a game without fail. But Littleson, the Rockets’ 4th banana was on easy street compared to the workload born by Toledo’s Big-3, Jackson, Knapke and Willie Jackson. This trio clocked the 2nd, 3rd and 6th highest minute totals in the MAC last year, as Kowalczyk effectively leaned on a 6 and a half man rotation for nearly the entire season.

Jackson’s back for one last stand, with a heighted awareness of how important a competent supporting is. Akin to last summer, where that help is coming from remains unclear. Littleson and Keshaun Saunders are lethal shooters on the wing, but they’re highly dependent on Jackson’s gravitational pull on defenses. Unlike Bowling Green’s stable of dynamic guards, Jackson’s the lone wolf capable of creating offense with dribble penetration. Littleson, a prototypical 3-and-Der and Saunders, an unfinished offensive product, aren’t terrifying defenses with their slashing ability. Albeit, that’s not completely fair to Saunders, a rising sophomore who shot 39% from downtown in conference games last year. But, a sub 90 O-Rating and sub 40% field goal percentage on 2s while committing two turnovers a game points to the minor holes in his offensive repertoire.

Top-40 JUCO recruit Seth Millner could be the remedy to the wing depth concerns. Millner returns back to Division I after starting his career at Cleveland State team in 2019, before a cup of coffee at JUCO power Northwest Florida State last season (though, it was down year for NFSCC). Millner’s production at both stops is enticing:

• Last year, he averaged 15 PPG, 6RPG and over a steal per game, notching 27 starts for a prestigious JUCO program – though, last year’s 0-12 conference record will forever stain the history books

• As a rookie at Cleveland State in 2018-19, he started all but one game, cementing himself as a do-it-all connector piece. The good-at-everything, great-at-nothing wing is guaranteed to stuff the stat sheets this year

With only remnants of the 2019 nucleus remaining, an impending youth movement is on the horizon. 3-star rookie Ryan Rollins wields the brightest recruiting cache, which, paired with Marreon Jackson’s tutelage, could produce big returns down the road. The timing of Rollins’ arrival could not be more optimal, ignoring the obvious COVID-19 wrinkles. He’ll be groomed under Jackson’s wing, while gaining invaluable live experience right away.

Not to regurgitate the same sentiment I spewed last summer, but a Tod Kowalczyk-coached team that leans on defense doesn’t sit right in my stomach. Rhythmic execution on the offensive end has been the Rockets’ calling card during the last decade. But, it’s no coincidence that the 25-win 2018-19 squadron, which flirted with cracking the top-50 in multiple advanced metric rankings, was the Rockets’ best defensive unit since 2011.

The Rockets boasted two of the league’s best shot-blockers in Edu and Knapke that season. With only one half of that tandem patrolling the paint last year, Toledo’s defense faltered in the encore. A simplistic way to look at this summer’s transition is as follows: a rehabilitated and revived Edu is roughly a 1-for-1 exchange for Knapke on the defensive end. Edu’s a bouncier leaper, but he probably still lags Knapke’s defensive instincts. Edu has the chops to vault into an All-Conference caliber player, but that’s a dicey proposition coming off an ACL injury. Sophomore Luke Maranka, the forgotten last option in last year’s exclusive depth chart, must be ready in the bullpen to spell Edu as needed.

Bottom Line: Tod Kowalczyk rode his stallions hard last year, as injuries and a lackluster bench forced the big guns to rack up huge minute counts. Losing Knapke is a tough pill to swallow, but a foundation of Jackson and Edu (health permitting) is a solid starting spot. Littleson is Mr. Reliable and Saunders, freshman flaws aside, is a soon-to-be ripe third banana in the backcourt. 

That said, the nuts and bolts of the rest of the rotation are relatively unknowns, the same boat the Rockets found themselves in last season. At least one of these new kids on the block has to step up, or Jackson will be running on empty by season’s end.
 

7. Kent State

Key Returners: Danny Pippen, Tervell Beck, Giovanni Santiago
Key Losses: Antonio ‘Booman’ Williams, Anthony Roberts, Philip Whittington, Troy Simons, CJ Williamson
Key Newcomers: Malique Jacobs (JUCO), Tekorian Smith (JUCO), James Jordan (JUCO), Gabe O'Neal (JUCO), Justyn Hamilton (Temple), Michael Nuga (Portland State) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: On the heels of four starters departing, including decorated floor general Antonio ‘Booman’ Williams, Kent State basketball will embark on a new chapter in 2021. Booman was an esteemed member of the MAC’s point guard elite, and his exodus leaves a gaping hole at the lead guard position. Anthony Roberts and Troy Simons also defect, laying the foundation for a full-blown perimeter facelift. 

As opposed to waiting for a youth-infused grassroots movement to sprout, Rob Senderoff opted for a quick fix, targeting experienced free agents on the JUCO wire: 

“We lost four starters and five of our top six scorers from last year,” Senderoff told the Akron Beacon Journal. “When that happens you have to try to bring in guys that you feel can contribute right away. We think we did that. There are six new payers on the team. We had a kid sit out last year, (6-2 senior guard) Michael Nuga, who I think is going to play a big role in our program this year. Then we have some freshmen from last year that we need to develop.”

Senderoff’s heralded crop of JUCOs will get their bite at the apple, but that unprompted reference to Mike Nuga, a former Portland State import, is telling. Nuga proved his worth as an efficient super sub for the Vikings in 2018, but this depleted backcourt needs Nuga to be more than a feast-or-famine 6th man. A promotion to full-time starter feels inevitable, which leaves two open slots for the JUCO newcomers to fill. 

Senderoff’s incoming class features four nationally ranked JUCO prospects – Tekorian ‘TK’ Smith (#35), Malique Jacobs (#66), James Jordan (#79) and Gabe O’Neal (HM) – all recognized on JUCORankings.com top-100 list. As astutely pointed out by the Record Courier, Toledo is the only other MAC school with a JUCO recruit ranked in the top 100 (Seth Millner, #31).

It’s tough to gauge how the offensive pecking order will shake out, but TK Smith’s nuclear scoring ability could propel him to alpha dog status. The brief highlight reel below only gives a snippet of Smith’s parking lot range and deadly midrange game: 

Senderoff plucked the other three products from prominent JUCO programs, none more heralded than Malique Jacobs’ former school, Indian Hills. Jacobs played a pivotal role on a dominant 30-3 Indian Hills team last year but was often overshadowed by Kansas-bound Tyon Grant-Foster, the #1 overall JUCO prospect. Jacobs per game stats won’t wow anyone (9 PPG / 5 RPG / 4APG), but he clocked the third most minutes on a squad that routinely shuffled in 10+ guys a game. For reference, Samba Kane (started career at Illinois) and Maurice Calloo (started at Oklahoma State and now headed to Oregon State) were also on that Indian Hills team. 

Much like Smith, Jordan and O’Neal were key cogs, though not main attractions, on nationally ranked teams last season. Over relying on the JUCO talent pool is inherently riskier for a myriad of reasons, but Senderoff appears to be deliberately targeting under-the-radar players from the cream of the crop JUCO teams, a strategy that often yields strong returns. Even if only two of the four JUCO seeds bloom right away, that’s a sturdy enough bandage to stabilize the roster carnage from this summer. 

Senderoff has always fancied himself as an offensive whisper. He was unofficially dubbed the Flashes’ offensive coordinator during his years as an assistant under Geno Ford. In this summer’s NABC coaching clinic series, Senderoff also touted his experience under James Jones (Yale) and Jim Christian (Boston College), two razor sharp offensive minds, as key steppingstones for his early coaching curriculum.

There’s nothing simple or straightforward about this offensive design. Senderoff utilizes what he refers to as ‘families’ of plays. Each family encompasses a series of quick hitters, all executed from a specific base structure. It’s a robust playbook, which amplifies the importance of having a lead guard who’s well versed in the system. As talented as the newcomers are, transitioning from a multi-year starter (Booman) to an unknown commodity at point could be a choppy transition. Nuga and Giovanni Santiago are the only guards slated for meaningful minutes this year with a year in the program under their belt.

In the midst of this roster reshuffle, Danny Pippen will become Senderoff’s crutch this season. The guards in this league get all the ink, but a fully healthy Pippen could be this season’s dark horse Player of the Year candidate – but, assuming an uninterrupted, injury-free season might be a bridge too far. Pippen missed the entire 2019 season after undergoing knee surgery and continued to battle through knee issues last year:

“My left knee hurt every time that I hooped,” Pippen told the Beacon Journal this spring. “Every time I jumped or landed, my knee was in some type of pain. But I wasn’t sitting out again, so I just played through it.”

Senderoff later added, “[Pippen] spent 90 minutes or more per day in the training room getting ready to play. He played through pain all year and was a warrior through it all.”

After undergoing another knee surgery in April, Pippen is expected to be ready to roll by the start of the season – though, Kent State fans will still be holding their breath every time he skies for a rebound. Temple transfer Justyn Hamilton and Tervell Beck round out a formidable frontline, the latter of whom rose from the ashes late in the year last season. Beck is no stranger to foul trouble, a habit he must shake imminently, but he can take over games with his activity inside. Hamilton’s an excellent failsafe to Beck’s foul tendencies and could step into the starting lineup alongside Pippen.

Bottom Line: In a typical year, Kent State’s 2021 prognosis would look rosier. The Flashes’ accumulated some serious JUCO talent and boast one of MAC’s most dangerous front courts, led by Pippen. But, in the context of COVID-19, which is guaranteed to disrupt ordinary practice schedules and offseason bonding, the Flashes could stumble out of the gates. Senderoff’s offense takes time to master, a far cry from other elementary systems, which could be a steep hill to climb for this brand-new backcourt.

Tier 2

8. Miami Ohio

Key Returners: Dalonte Brown, Dae Dae Grant, Isaiah Coleman-Lands, Mekhi Lairy, Milos Jovic, Elijah McNamara, Myja White
Key Losses: Nike Sibande, Bam Bowman
Key Newcomers: James Beck (Oakland)

Lineup:

Outlook:

I know, Admiral, but I can’t help myself… Allow me to defend my case… 

I fell head over heels for the Redhawks last year, duped by an explosion-rich backcourt and Jack Owens’ perceived coaching prowess (which largely stems from his former mentor, Matt Painter at Purdue). I’m still jaded by Miami’s putrid performance for much of the 2020 campaign, but the Redhawks showed signs of life in the waning weeks of the season. It’s tempting to pull the injury excuse card, but I’ll keep it in my back pocket for now – the bottom line is that the last five games, which concluded with a head-turning win at Buffalo in the opening round of the MAC Tournament, were more in line with what should’ve been the norm for the entirety of last season.

Building on that subtle momentum will be an uphill climb without Pitt-bound Nike Sibande, a pro-level athlete and prolific scorer, but the next wave of young guards is oozing with upside. The loss of Bam Bowman would’ve been viewed as a mega loss two years ago, but his eroding knees caused his production to taper off last season. Point being, Miami is in a position to quickly plug both of those holes with a myriad of options in 2021.

One might claim this roster is more quantity than quality, but I’m a stubborn believer in the backcourt. Owens seems adamant about keeping Mekhi Lairy locked into his 6th man role, but I’d love to see the mini jitterbug spread his wings as a full-time starter. Lairy’s part creator part scorer, a true dual-threat guard who just seems to make positive things happen every time he steps on the floor. Dae Dae Grant leapfrogged Lairy in the perimeter pecking order, the Redhawks’ 3rd leading scorer from a year ago. An All-Freshman team honoree last season, Grant wasn’t bashful stepping into the limelight, establishing himself as a high-level shot maker and effective distributor.

Fellow sophomore Myra White also notched 18 starts in his rookie campaign, benefitting from Sibande’s injury limitations. Owens should have at least one of Lairy, Grant and White on the floor at all times, the Redhawks’ three best creators. Isaiah Coleman-Lands and Josh Brewer are less dynamic off the dribble, but they can fill it up from downtown if given the opportunity. Milos Jovic is the final piece of the backcourt puzzle, a jack-of-all-trades combo guard. 

I’ll concede that this bullish backcourt prognosis is limited to the offensive side of the ball. As far as defense goes, well, that’s a different story entirely… 

Last year’s defensive debacle isn’t solely attributable to the guard clan but containing dribble drives was a major pain point. Miami fans realized how spoiled they were with Darrian Ringo’s relentless ball pressure, who keyed the Redhawks’ defense in 2018 and 2019. On the backend, the Miami frontcourt offered zero resistance in the middle, failing to cover up mistakes in the first line of defense. The chronically injured Bowman essentially ran on flat tires last season, so his departure might actually be a blessing in disguise. There’s no single infection area on this side of the ball. To improve upon last year’s 2nd worst defensive efficiency mark in the MAC, improvement must be a collective uprising from all parties involved. 

Javin Etzler was one of the newcomers I underlined last summer, a super-skilled forward who can score inside and out, but a broken foot ruined his first collegiate season. After helplessly watching his fellow rookies race by him in the rotation last year, look for Etzler to come out firing this season. Again, his defensive impact remains to be seen, but his offensive toolkit may be too enticing to ignore. Elijah McNamara was the beneficiary of big Bam Bowman’s late season burnout, claiming a spot in the starting rotation in nine of the Redhawks’ final 10 contests. Oakland transfer James Beck could be in the mix for a starting gig, a high-motor glass cleaner who comes to Oxford with an established reserve resume. Precious Ayah enters his fourth year in the program after clocking productive minutes off the pine last season. He doesn’t move the needle but he’s a trusted minutes eater up front and was arguably the team’s most disruptive defender last season (not exactly a ringing endorsement for this shoddy defense).

Dalonte Brown is the real wildcard, a big-time talent on the wing who saw his production fall across the board last year. He, too, dealt with nagging injuries, which was a death sentence for his premier athletic ability. The stockpile of guards is where the strength of this roster lies, so deploying Brown, a prototypical wing, at the 4 is the optimal lineup structure.

Bottom Line: Did Miami OH pick one of the few rotten apples off Matt Painter’s disciple tree? It’s too early to write him off completely, but last year’s melt was a damning revelation. A reappraisal of Owens’ coaching stock might be in order after this season, but all the injury landmines that surfaced last year warrants some forgiveness. Now embarking on year four of the Owens regime, it’s approaching the ‘put up or shut up’ tipping point in Oxford. 

9. Eastern Michigan

Key Returners: Yeikson Montero, Ty Groce, Thomas Binelli, Noah Morgan, Darion Spottsville
Key Losses: Boubacar Toure
Key Newcomers: James Love (Kansas State), Drew Lowder*** (Holy Cross), Axel Okongo (Eastern Michigan), Bryce McBride (JUCO) 

*** needs waiver – Lowder is from Michigan, so strong chance he gets a waiver

Lineup: 

Outlook: Rob Murphy knew pain was coming. 

Last summer, the simultaneous graduation of Paul Jackson, Elijah Minnie and James Thompson stripped Murphy of three multi-year starters. All that remained were a few holdovers and a ragtag group of JUCOs. Murphy marched into battle knowing he was outmanned and outgunned – yet, he didn’t imagine ripping the band-aid off would be so painful…

Things weren’t all bad at first. EMU snuck up on a few unsuspecting non-conference adversaries, knocking off North Texas, Valparaiso and Northeastern before the holiday break. Little did Murphy know; a long winter was descending upon Ypsilanti. The Eagles struck out seven straight times to open MAC play, freefalling into last place in the league standings. Murphy’s bunch battled admirably in a few isolated incidents but qualifying a handful of losses as moral victories encapsulates how low the bar has fallen. 

From niche defensive specialist to primary offensive outlet, Murphy tasked Ty Groce with Mission: Impossible last year. There’s a reason Groce’s usage rate back in 2019 hovered around 12%: his offensive toolkit is barren. Ramping up Groce’s usage rate to 22% last season was a runaway mine train from the start, destined to run off the rails eventually. For the record, this wasn’t Groce’s fault – he put up solid counting states across multiple stat columns, maximizing his offensive potential as the Eagles’ main outlet. He’s just not wired to be ‘the man’ on offense.

The Eagles’ offensive issues cascaded from there. Newcomer Noah Morgan was similarly miscast as the second fiddle on offense. Consider the fact that Morgan was the fifth option on a 13-18 Fairleigh Dickinson team back in 2018. Predictably, Morgan’s efficiency diminished against stiffer competition. The JUCO imports also failed to hold their end of the bargain, particularly Yeikson Montero and Thomas Binelli, both of whom cracked JUCORecruiting.com’s top-100 2019 prospect list. Montero’s moments were few and far between, while Binelli, billed as a lethal long-range sniper, made just 31% from the land of plenty. To top it all off, Darion Spottsville’s erratic ball handling and jump shot avoidance made him an offensive liability at the point guard position. 

The silver lining in Spottsville’s discouraging play is that the seas will be parted for Holy Cross transfer Drew Lowder (still seeking a waiver) to man the wheel in 2021. Lowder, a Michigan native, is a safe bet to be green lit to play immediately in the NCAA’s current waiver friendly environment – though, that’s not a foregone conclusion. Assuming Lowder laces ‘em up this season, he’ll bring a whole new element to the Eagles’ one-dimensional offense. Lowder’s a pure pull-up shooter and fearless slasher, seemingly oblivious to his undersized frame when he attacks the cup. Per hoop-math.com, Lowder converted 67% of his shots at the rim last year, an astounding rate for a 6’0 freshman. Injuries kept Lowder on the pine for most of conference play last year, but the show he put on against Maryland in the season opener should put a smile on every EMU fans’ face:

Murphy is hoping he hit a home run with Bryce McBride, a 24 PPG scorer at Dyserburg CC and top-100 JUCO Honorable Mention nominee. Last year’s JUCO class didn’t generate expected returns, so McBride could be Murphy’s redemption ticket if he’s able to stick in the rotation. 

Per usual, EMU will likely have to win ugly, grinding games to an army crawl pace while befuddling opponents with Murphy’s 2-3 zone. Akin to Murphy’s former mentor Jim Boehiem, the zone is optimized when long, active limbs are flying in every direction. Nowhere is that length more important than in the zone’s soft underbelly, which is where Boubacar Toure set up shop. Toure’s towering presence in the middle of the zone anchored the MAC’s 2nd best defense last year, so finding an enforcer successor is a must. 

Murphy may have hit the jackpot with Kansas State stowaway James Love. Love’s legacy in Manhattan was cemented for eternity when he unleashed a flurry of haymakers in the infamous K-State / Kansas brawl last season. Love’s participation in the brawl earned him an eight-game suspension, but his third foot surgery in as many seasons is what ultimately put a cap on his K-State career. Banking on bigs to stay healthy is always a dicey proposition, especially with someone as banged up as Love, but he could be an immediate plug for Toure, last year’s shot blocking supremacist in the MAC.

Before Love’s career crumbled at Kansas State, he was known as a defensive stopper during his Florida grassroots glory days. This will be Love’s last bite at the apple, but there won’t be any feel-good redemption stories if he suffers another injury setback. Murphy brought in a hail mary contingency plan, Axel Okongo, from Mizzou, in case Love doesn’t pan out, but Okongo was simply over his head at Mizzou.

Bottom Line: Murphy deserves credit for preventing a major detonation, after righting the ship with a moderate resurgence in February and March. Still, the final results – 16-16 overall and 6-12 in league play – were not up to snuff. EMU fans are growing increasingly disinterested in the Eagles’ dwindling success, which is exacerbated by Murphy’s exceptionally boring brand of basketball.

That said, most assumed last season would be a bumpy transition period, so the lackluster results should be viewed through the prism of those preseason expectations. In that light, I’d actually give Murphy a B on his 2019-20 report card. I won’t be as kind next summer if the Eagles suffer another calamitous start in conference play, but I’m cautiously optimistic the Eagles will be a thorn in the side of MAC foes all year long.

10. Central Michigan

Key Returners: Devontae Lane, Deschon Winston, Travon Broadway Jr.
Key Losses: Dallas Morgan, Kevin McKay, David DiLeo, Rob Montgomery
Key Newcomers: Braden Burke (Michigan State), Meikkel Murray (JUCO), Caleb Huffman (JUCO), Malik Muhammad (JUCO), Rashad Weekly-McDaniels 

Lineup:

Outlook: In hindsight, I probably under sold the Chippewas in my MAC preview last year, but many overshot in the other direction. After starting 6-2 in conference, a 9-game losing streak took the wind out of the sails and CMU never recovered. Last year’s senior-laden team had high expectations, but Keno Davis never solved the point guard position, which has been the engine of Central Michigan’s high-octane offenses in years past. 

The Chips lose four pivotal pieces in Dallas Morgan, Rob Montgomery, Kevin McKay and David DiLeo, which shifts the spotlight to last year’s JUCO imports, Devontae Lane and Deschon Winston. As I discussed in last year’s preview, the changing of the guard(s) from Larry Austin and Shawn Roundtree to Lane and Winston was the single biggest factor in determining CMU’s 2020 fate. Because the aforementioned supporting structure (Morgan, Montgomery, McKay and DiLeo) remained intact, Davis just dropped the Lane / Winston tandem right in Austin / Roundtree’s place, assuming it would all work itself out. As time quickly told, that swap was not a 1:1 exchange rate… 

The picture below from KenPom.com gives a snapshot of the Chips’ offensive DNA since Davis took over in 2012. Take note of the precipitous drop in 3-point attempt rate in 2019 and 2020, compared to the years prior:

This evidence partially suggests Davis made little attempt to recalibrate the offense to cater to a completely revamped backcourt. As a result, CMU was highly leveraged on Lane and Winston’s ability to come in and run the show as if they were carbon copies of Austin and Roundtree, which turned out to be wishful thinking. 

So, what happens now?

Other than Travon Broadway (7.1 PPG), no one returning tallied more than 3 points a game last year. Davis will augment last year’s JUCO crop with more of the same – new JUCOs! Unfortunately, Demarcus Demonia, a double-double machine at Allegany Maryland CC, failed to qualify this summer, a big blow to the incoming class. That leaves top-100 JUCO prospect and NJCAA Second Team All American Meikkel Murray and two-way stalwart Caleb Huffman as the headliners, two long wings who can do a little bit of everything. This team needs their scoring in the worst way, but they’ll also provide an immediate boost the Chips’ perimeter defense. Getting stops is never CMU’s calling card, but this roster contains the athleticism and versatility components needed to defend at a high level. Davis tried to ramp up the perimeter pressure last season, but disjointedness resulted in far too many uncontested looks from long distance.

It’s encouraging to see Davis not completely ignore the grassroots talent pool, a potential sign of renewed interest in developing homegrown cornerstones from within. Rashad Weekly-McDaniels is the one to watch, a fringe 3-star prospect with a Hulk-ish frame. Hailing from the St. Louis metro area, McDaniels was a late riser in the prep rankings. He’s an explosive rim attacker, blessed with exceptional hangtime that allows him to contort his body to convert tough shots over and around defenders:

Chicken-wing shooting form notwithstanding, ‘RWM’ figures to be fast-tracked right to the top of the rotational depth chart. 

As alluded to earlier, the aforementioned players all jive closely with Keno Davis’ affection for multi-positional athletes. This begs the question as to how the lone black sheep in this year’s newcomer class, Braden Burke, will fit in. A former walk-on at Michigan State, Burke never had a prayer to see the floor for an upper echelon Big-10 program. But after majoring in the Tom Izzo school of big men, Burke could be a gamechanger right from the tip. At 7-0 245 pounds, he operates in slow motion, but can score over either shoulder in the low post and displays a competent face-up jumper out to 12-15 feet. 6’9 JUCO import Malik Muhammad might be a *safer* option up front, who has an agility and leaping edge over the clog-footed Burke.

Bottom Line: On paper, Central Michigan’s offensive firepower looks watered down, especially in relation to the 2015-2019 stretch that included the likes of Chris Fowler, Braylon Rayson, and the Roundtree / Austin pairng most recently. Last year confirmed how reliant this offense is on prolific guard play, as Lane and Winston winded up being a downgrade to their predecessors. Running and gunning only works if you have the horses to execute and last year the Chippewas clearly overstepped their capabilities. The same concerns linger this year, barring an unexpected outburst from one of the new JUCO additions.

11. Northern Illinois

Key Returners: Trendon Hankerson, Zaire Mateen, Darius Beane, Tyler Cochran
Key Losses: Eugene German, Noah McCarty, Lacey James
Key Newcomers: Kaleb Thornton (JUCO), Chinedu Okanu (JUCO), Zool Kueth (JUCO), Adong Makuoi (JUCO), Anthony Crump (Middle Tennessee) 

Lineup:

Outlook: After flip-flopping countless times on this meaningless internal debate, I’ll defer to the Husky fans on this matter: Was last year “a disappointment”, “about as expected” or “quietly encouraging”? I was a vocal naysayer last summer, citing the underrated losses of Levi Bradley and Dante Thorpe. Without them, I feared Eugene German would have to ascend to God-like status to keep the Huskies’ afloat. 

Predictably, German’s efficiency fell without viable alternative scoring options around him. While that sounds like a jab at Lacey James and Noah McCarty, this duo deserves credit for co-anchoring an unsuspecting defensive renaissance last season. NIU checked in with the MAC’s 4th best defensive unit last year, which was dressed up by an unbearably slow pace – only four teams mustered 75 points against the Huskies last season. Truth be told, as vanilla as Montgomery’s game plan was, it was rather effective: Grind the game to a halt, clamp down on defense and hope German provides enough fireworks on offense to eke out a victory.

The chart below encapsulates ‘the German effect’ in a nutshell. Only three teams in the country leaned more on isolation than NIU last season, 99.99999% of which were with German initiating:

Over indexing on ‘hero ball’ often drags down offensive efficiency, but the Huskies ranked 47th nationally in points per possession in isolations, which points to German’s brilliance as a one-on-one player. Anytime he got a defender alone on an island, there was no shot of containing him. He was too slippery to stay in front of, set up by the threat of a deep pull up jumper that forced defenders to pick him up well beyond their comfort zone. 

Barring an immediate splash from one of the newcomers, Trendon Hankerson, Zaire Mateen and Darius Beane, who spent much of last season cheerleading for German, will have their work cut out for them. Hankerson returns as NIU’s top long-range marksman (45%), but he flashed confidence as a slasher and shot maker as the season progressed. Mateen’s another reliable 3-point specialist, less versatile than Hankerson but an apt complement to his fellow sophomore in the backcourt. Beane’s the best driver of the bunch, a deceptively long combo guard who can maneuver well in tight space. 

Because the sun, Earth and moon all revolved around German last year, it’s entirely possible this incumbent backcourt triumvirate is being slept on. But rather than cozy up to that assumption, Mike Montgomery lured in a couple of enticing prospects off the transfer wire – in fact, all of the newcomers are seasoned collegiate players, as Montgomery opted to fish exclusively in the JUCO and transfer talent pools.

Of all the MAC-bound JUCO prospects I watched tape on this summer, Kaleb Thornton was the most enticing. Rather than whip up another eloquent player description, I’ll outsource that to his future head coach, Mr. Montgomery: 

"Kaleb is a jet-quick playmaker, he has a good feel for the game, is a very hard worker and an extremely competitive young man," said Montgomery in an official school press release. "He can change gears, get into the paint and make plays for himself and for others. Kaleb is a heady player who can be a coach on the floor, and we know with what we have seen from Tyler Cochran that he has been well-prepared to play at this level." 

At risk of severely overrating Thornton, he does have shades of German in his game. Specifically, he possesses that innate feel for knowing when to burst through the hole or turn the corner as a pick-n-roll initiator. If Thornton gets into a seam, he’s acutely aware of cutters and shooters at all times.

His shot is still a work in progress (he made 27% from 3-point range last season at Iowa Western CC), but I’d be stunned if Montgomery doesn’t cut him loose right away. 

Three other JUCO additions, Chinedu Okanu, Zool Kueth and Adong Makuoi, will likely compete for the fifth starting spot. The Huskies’ desperately need at least one interior garbage man to follow in Lacey James and Noah McCarty’s footsteps, who did all the dirty work inside last year.

The real unicorn is Anthony Crump, a 6’8 guard with a 6’10 wingspan. The Middle Tennessee defector is truly one-of-a-kind. He was off to the races at MTSU back in 2019 but a knee injury stunted his growth after starting the first seven games of the season. He’s allergic to shooting but his ability to pass, rebound and defend can be deployed in a variety of ways across multiple positions.

Bottom Line: Mark Montgomery gets a golf clap for a job well done last year. He dug into his roots and rebranded the Huskies in a way his old mentor, Tommy Izzo, would be proud. Defense and toughness were the pillars of last year's *success*, but so was Eugene German, leaving the incumbents with a lot on their plate this year. The roster isn’t as bleak as it looks at first glance, but the Huskies will have to replicate last year's grittiness to avoid a major tumble in the MAC totem pole.

12. Western Michigan

Key Returners: B. Artis White, Rafael Cruz Jr., Titus Wright, Jason Whitens
Key Losses: Michael Flowers, Brandon Johnson
Key Newcomers: Greg Lee (Cal St. Bakersfield), Josiah Freeman, Jaylan Hamilton

Lineup: 

Outlook: Welp, that’s all she wrote, folks. 17 years later, the Steve Hawkins era is officially a wrap.

Finding Hawkins’ replacement was a long and windy road, one that drummed up a ton of criticism from the WMU fanbase. Ultimately, budget constraints sharply narrowed the scope of the search. Strapped for cash and stuck in the COVID mud, the athletic department eventually promoted Western Michigan lifer Clayton Bates to program director. Critics were quick to point out Bates’ minimal salary impact to the bottom-line, implying the move was largely a money grab, but that doesn’t mean Bates isn’t the right man for the job. Wait and see we shall…

Bates’ local respect and deep roots within the Kalamazoo community kept the lid on a potential mass player or coach exodus. That said, there’s just no way this team’s equipped to replace Michael Flowers and Brandon Johnson, which sets the stage for phase 1 of a long rebuilding effort. Bates inherits a fruitful fountain of youth, led by B. Artis White and Titus Wright. Wright, a crafty post man, etched his name on the All-Freshman team, despite the Broncos bringing up the rear in the MAC standings. He’s a locomotive at 250 pounds, flexing that wide frame to carve out space in the lane.

White’s the key domino this year, a jet-quick guard capable of bending the defense with his speed and handle. He shot it well from distance last year, but his ability to get in the lane and create open looks for his teammates are in high demand in a post Flowers era.

Despite his seniority, Rafael Cruz is destined to be a 3rd or 4th banana, depending on what Cal State Bakersfield grad transfer Greg Lee offers. Cruz is a streaky scorer, best deployed as defibrillator off the bench when the perimeter scoring dries up. Bates knows what he’s getting with Cruz, but he’s hoping a change of scenery will take Lee, the Broncos’ marquee offseason acquisition, to new heights. 

Big things were expected of Lee heading into last season. His former coach at Bakersfield, Rod Barnes, put him right at the top of the breakout watch list after flashing moments of stardom in 2018. Lee had a few big outings last year, but every time the lightbulb started to flicker on, he’d go AWOL the very next game. In many ways, Lee’s a more versatile version of Brandon Johnson – an inside-out scorer with a respectable jumper – and is highly switchable on the defensive end. But Johnson was Mr. Reliable, a double-double threat every time he stepped on the floor. That’s the dependability Lee needs to copycat to fill Johnson’s void. 

Similar to Lee’s plateauing development, William Boyer-Richard and Patrick Emilien are two key incumbents that never took flight last season. Each brings something different to the table (Boyer-Richard, a shooter; Emilien, a utility man), so I remain cautiously optimistic their best ball is ahead of them. 

However, Bates will be eager to test drive two prolific rookies, Josiah “JoJo” Freeman and Daylan Hamilton, so the upperclassmen’s order in the depth chart is far from guaranteed. Hamilton poured in 26 points a game in his final high school season, earning him Texas All-State honors. Freeman’s 3-star pedigree exemplifies his upside, armed with a flamethrower jumper and an unflappable confidence to pull from anywhere on the floor.

Bottom Line: Even though most of the band returns, the two losses were far and away the Broncos’ top-2 dogs last year. Johnson and Flowers were instrumental on both ends of the floor. Clayton Bates will be under intense scrutiny, coaching under the microscope of a fan base irked by a quick-trigger hire. Selling patience will be his PR crutch, as a third straight losing season is a near certain destiny.