-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: KC Ndefo, Sr., Saint Peter’s
Coach of the Year: Rick Pitino, Iona
Newcomer of the Year: Shavar Reynolds, R Sr., Monmouth
Freshman of the Year: Noah Harris, Marist

Tier 1

1. Iona

Key Returners: Berrick JeanLouis, Nelly Junior Joseph, Dylan van Eyck, Ryan Myers, Osborn Shema**
Key Losses: Asante Gist, Isaiah Ross
Key Newcomers: Elijah Joiner (Tulsa), Tyson Jolly (SMU), Quinn Slazinski (Louisville) 

**Osborn Shema is reportedly out for the year, which elevates Robert Brown to a key reserve forward behind Junior Joseph

Lineup:

Outlook: 

Is this roster for real? This doesn’t belong in the MAAC. Heck, this roster is too talent rich for the single-A MAC, much less the M double-A C. Imagine what Rick Pitino, who turned a COVID corrupted makeshift roster into MAAC champions, can do with these weapons. Sorry MAAC participants. You’re all playing for second place this year.

Quinn Slazinski is a microcosm of this cavernous vault of talent. The down transfer from Louisville, who clocked meaningful minutes in the ACC, may not even start. Fittingly, incumbent Dylan Van Eyck, a near replica of Slazinski, is the man who stands between Slazinski and that second forward opening in the starting rotation. The first time they guarded each other in practice, we had a good ‘ol fashioned spider man meme situation.

In short, Van Eyck, is cut from the same cloth as Slazinski. Both are legitimate triple-threats on offense and agile enough to uphold Pitino’s lofty standards on the defensive end. With all due respect to Slazinski, I’d prefer to see van Eyck get the bulk of the minutes at the nominal 4. I’ve been a van Eyck shareholder ever since seeing his jaw dropping JUCO highlights heading into the 2020 campaign. If he can connect from long distance, as he was starting to late in the year last season, van Eyck is the Gaels’ X-factor.

The Gaels lost unanimous All-Conference guard Isaiah Ross, plus his sidekick at point Asante Gist, over the summer. This would be troublesome for most teams. For Rick Pitino, shrug. He simply upgraded his backcourt duo. Pitino rolled out the red carpet for Elijah Joiner and Tyson Jolly, two studs from Tulsa and SMU, respectively. This season, Joiner will step into Gist’s stead at point while Jolly flanks him on the wing. 

Jolly was a fraction of himself last season after torching AAC opponents left and right in 2020 – the video compilation below encapsulates what a force he is at peak form (shouts to Guy Falotico for compiling this link on Jolly):

Joiner, on the other hand, saw his efficiency spike to new heights in the condensed 2021 season, notching career marks in true shooting percentage (58%) and individual O-Rating (107). Joiner and Jolly will tag team in the backcourt, alongside dogged defender Berrick JeanLouis, who will play third fiddle on offense. Pitino emphatically declared JeanLouis the Gaels’ best ball stopper last year. Joiner and Jolly aren’t afraid to roll up their defensive sleeves, either. Both are regarded as plus defenders based on their work at prior destinations.

Whatever gets by that first line of defense will smack headfirst into two trees planted in the lane, Nelly Junior Joseph and Osborn Shema, the latter of which looks like a human redwood. Elite size was a hallmark of Pitino’s best defensive units at Louisville, a formula he’s clearly replicating here. Consider this New Rochelle rendition the ‘Louisville Lite’ blueprint.

*UPDATE*: According to Mark Singelais, Shema is likely out for the season due to an injury.

Anything Junior Joseph gives the Gaels on offense is gravy, but, based on last year’s development, there’s enough of that to serve two Thanksgiving dinners. The Nigerian prospect has a great feel around the basket, showcasing advanced footwork and a confident touch – this spin middle baby hook sequence over Nikkei Rutty is virtually unguardable in MAAC-land:

Continuing down the line, Ryan Myers, a seldom used reserve specializing in long range sniping, is ready for primetime. Though not known for his ability to swim…

… he’s a deadly assassin on land…

Myers started all five games of Iona’s international exhibition tour through Greece, proof that Pitino sees a big leap in his crystal ball.

That trip to Greece was the ideal placemat for Pitino to pilot, refine and perfect his optimal defensive approach. As astutely pointed out by Jordan Majewski (this won’t be the first time his name is referenced in this preview), COVID crippled Pitino’s ability to fully integrate his patented defensive pressure last season. This could manifest in a myriad of ways, be it relentless full court havoc, sticky half-court denial or tricky zone traps. Regardless, MAAC ball handlers will have nightmares the day before their date with the Gaels.

Bottom Line: There’s no need to overcomplicate this. The best coach and the best talent are both found in New Rochelle this year. Contending for at-large berth will require a Herculean non-conference performance, likely a bridge too far, but there’s a world where Iona sneaks into that conversation by March.



Tier 2

2. Saint Peter’s

Key Returners: KC Ndefo, Matthew Lee, Doug Edert, Darryl Banks, Hassan Drame, Fousseyni Drame
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Isiah Dasher (Portland) 

Lineup:

Outlook: *WAIT FOR NDEFO*

^ ^^^ The above placeholder was plastered in this intro section for months. The tenor of this entire preview revolves around KC Ndefo’s decision to return to Jersey City for one last stand.

After weeks upon weeks of speculation, the Peacocks’ Twitter handle finally dropped the news bomb (in not-so-conspicuous fashion):

Ndefo is the ultimate defensive destroyer. His name should always be mentioned in the same breath as more prominent power conference defensive stalwarts. Raw plus / minus statistics are a slippery slope, but don’t nitpick at a top-5 national ranking:

The return of the 2X Defensive Player of the Year fundamentally alters the arc of this preview. Unless Rudy Gobert planned to enroll at Saint Peter’s, there was no one player who could replace Ndefo by himself. Even with two matrix like defenders in Hassan and Fousseyni Drame, Shaheen Holloway clung to Ndefo like a security blanket last year. Per hooplens.com, the Drame brothers only played 300 possessions together last year. 

Instead, Holloway deployed them in platoon fashion, each taking turns tag teaming with Ndefo. As the advanced on / off splits below reveal, this was the right decision. Without Ndefo’s protection, the Drame / Drame frontline cracked:

That’s a moot point now with Ndefo back in the fold. The Drames can return to business as usual – that is, wreaking havoc around the rim and bombarding the offensive glass. Ndefo’s return also shifts Oumar Diahame back to a cozier role. He was seldom used last year, clocking more than 10 minutes on only three occasions. 

In summary, the Peacocks’ defense will be an impenetrable bomb shelter with Ndefo back in the saddle. Scoring, however, could be a chore.

Perhaps a veteran backcourt could inject a shot of life in to a flatlining offense. The skeleton key to success will be role optimization. As Majewski correctly points out in his MAAC spotlight, Matthew Lee is an enigma at the point guard spot. His gaudy assist numbers overshadow spotty decision making – granted, he posted an impressive 1.4 assist-to-turnover margin but finished 5th in the league in giveaways (note: Ndefo was 4th). This partially explains how the Peacocks posted the 3rd worst turnover rate in the league.

There’s a chance Portland transfer Isiah Dasher swipes some of Lee’s minutes this year, which would require Daryl Banks and Doug Edert to evolve their offensive roles into co-initiators (perhaps with Banks leading the way). Alternatively, Holloway could move Lee off the ball, re-calibrating his psyche to that of a combo guard, as opposed to a ball dominant initiator. Lee’s 39% career 3-point field goal percentage certainly warrants this consideration.

In summary, the perimeter pieces don’t fit together intuitively but there’s enough flexibility within their strengths and weaknesses to find a proper balance. To date, Edert’s been content in his lane as a spot up shooter. Banks is the steadiest, and most dynamic, of this trio.

Later in this preview, I’ll eviscerate Manhattan for their layup and interior finishing incompetence. However, the Peacocks were actually worse last season. Per Haslametrics, only three teams in America converted less than 50% of their near proximity attempts in 2021: Incarnate Word, Alabama State and Saint Peter’s. Ndefo, again, is the positive exception to the rule, who ranked in the 64th percentile nationally at converting inside (per ShotQuality). With the same roster running it back in 2022, save Dasher, expect this finishing futility to continue in 2022.

Bottom Line: From my naïve Midwest vantage point, Saint Peter’s and Manhattan have become MAAC step-brothers ever since Shaheen Holloway took over in 2018. Both Holloway and Masiello hang their hats on defense, buoyed by superior size and athleticism, while largely shrugging off the perpetual offensive shortcomings.

So, what sets the Peacocks apart? It’s part Ndefo, part Holloway – specifically, Holloway’s superior track record in concocting elite defenses, as seen now for two years running with Ndefo as the linchpin. The chase for 2nd place will be a close call but the Peacocks’ continuity gives them a slight edge over Siena and Monmouth.

3. Siena

Key Returners: Jackson Stormo, Aidan Carpenter, Nick Hopkins
Key Losses: Jalen Pickett, Manny Camper, Jordan King
Key Newcomers: Anthony Gaines (Northwestern), Jayce Johnson (Middle Tennessee), Colby Rogers (Cal Poly), Jordan Kellier (Utah), Jared Billups 

***North Carolina guard Andrew Platek was rumored to be enrolling at Siena but is still not yet on the official school roster. Additionally, key reserve big Kyle Young is officially taking a year away from basketball. Thank you, again, to Mark Singelais for the diligent reporting. 

Lineup: 

Outlook: There’s a lot of ‘new’ permeating throughout Siena’s basketball program this summer, but hey, ‘new’ is the new normal, right? On the floor, the Saints will trot out six new transfers to replace the production of Jalen Pickett and Manny Camper, two pro level talents. Off the floor, as Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney reminded me earlier this summer, the coaching staff was bit by the turnover bug as well, as three of Siena’s top assistants are also gone.

It’s easy to forget that this team went 12-4 in conference last year. However, the MAAC’s free fall into oblivion helped inflate that record – and consequently, the perception of Siena as a team. Props to Carm Maciariello for refusing to be ‘roster content’ in the wake of last year’s regular season success. He hit the transfer portal hard this summer, searching for both big splash newcomers and complementary pieces to replenish the roster. 

Losing two premier talents of Pickett and Camper’s caliber looks daunting but it’s far from a death sentence. Not only were they somewhat inefficient as individuals but they were also ruinous to the Saints’ chemistry as a group.

It was a sad fall from grace for Pickett, once lauded as a potential NBA prospect heading into his sophomore season. Last year, however, he was nearly unrecognizable, often fading away into a state of complacency. Still, he ‘talented’ his way to another All-Conference season, so throwing stones at the guy seems foolish (he should flourish at Penn State this season).

Poking holes in Camper’s season is difficult. While he morphed into a terrific passer and facilitator for others, his shooting and finishing touch completely eroded last year. Camper’s percentages fell off a cliff, especially inside - per hoop-math.com, Camper finished 48% of his shots at the rim. No one with Camper’s size and leaping ability should ever shoot less than 60% from point blank range.

We could litigate the Pickett / Camper impact until the cows come home but let’s shine some light on the bevy of newcomers Carm brought in. Buoyed by Northwestern import Anthony Gaines, the Saints should boast one of the fastest, most athletic backcourts in the MAAC, even without the Pickett / Camper twofer. Gaines, a former 4-star recruit coming out of high school, is categorically more athletic than most of his MAAC peers, much like Camper was. Gaines’ skill profile is perhaps more robust than Camper, a scary proposition for MAAC foes.

The issue is we haven’t seen this version of Gaines in live action – at least, not in a starring role. Frankly, it’s a bullish projection but one that holds merit given his sterling pedigree and Carm’s intended use of his services. Optimism continues with Jayce Johnson and Colby Rogers, each of whom bring a different dimension to the table. Johnson is your quintessential glue guy while Rogers is a walking bucket.

The common denominator with Gaines, Johnson and Rogers is length. Among the presumed starters and key reserves, sharpshooting incumbent Nick Hopkins is the only guy standing under 6’3. Hopkins’ gravitational pull as a knock down shooter more than compensates for his height ‘deficiencies’ (as if 6’0 was too short or something). Rising sophomore Aidan Carpenter is the other backcourt pillar. According to Sweeney, the staff is head over heels with Carpenter’s potential, but his first merry-go-round last year was choppy, at best.

Rumors were swirling that North Carolina defector Andrew Platek would land in Siena’s lap but that’s yet to come to fruition. Platek struggled to keep his head above water at UNC, but he’d be ahead of the class in the MAAC.

The outlier in this guard and wing-laden rotation is Jackson Stormo. Stormo opened the year as an afterthought, spelling Kyle Young off the pine as a steady backup. That experiment lasted all but three weeks. Stormo was just too dominant to keep on the backburner and Carm finally cut him loose, promoting him to full-time starter in late January. While defenses fretted over Pickett and Camper, Stormo quietly became the consistent engine behind Siena’s offense. He’s already got every low post trick in his bag – if he keeps expanding the range on his feathery touch, Stormo might be a legitimate POTY darkhorse.

Jared Billups is the front man of the rookie class, earning him HeatCheck’s MAAC ‘Freshman of the Year’ in their preseason projections. It’s tough to see a pathway to minutes, with Carpenter, Hopkins, Gaines, Johnson, Rogers, plus Jordan Kellier (Utah) and Michael Baer (Iowa), all worthy of time. The freshmen will likely marinade on the pine this year, but Billups could get a head start on his peers. Michael Tertsea, the presumed backup to Stormo, rounds out the key additions list.

Bottom Line: 99% of the time, I roll my eyes whenever ‘great chemistry’ is touted as a prevailing reason to be bullish on a team’s outlook. But, in Siena’s case, I’m chuggin’ the kool-aid. The revamped roster lacks star power but the depth and versatility is substantial. My radar pegs the Saints as an upper half contender but, again, everyone appears to be playing 2nd fiddle to Iona this year.

4. Monmouth

Key Returners: George Papas, Marcus McClary
Key Losses: Deion Hammond, Melik Martin
Key Newcomers: Shavar Reynolds (Seton Hall), Walker Miller (North Carolina) 

Lineup:

Outlook: White out that 79-60 MAAC tournament game debacle against Fairfield. Then, take a second look at Monmouth’s 2021 resume. Not too shabby, right?

Another MAAC casualty to extreme COVID conditions, the Hawks were in COVID purgatory until mid-December last year. Their season debut against Hofstra set the tone for the entire season. Antsy to get on the floor and stretch those legs, Monmouth went full Mach 5 against the Pride. King Rice could’ve played it conservative. But that’s not King Rice.

Monmouth lost that season opener, an offensive display of fireworks, but it served as a sneak peek of the pinball pace the Hawks would play at all year. Not even a brutal schedule deterred Rice from running and gunning at the speed of sound.

The Hawks closed out the year with eight straight road games, spanning almost 6-weeks without playing a home game. They went 5-3 during that stretch, including weekend sweeps at Manhattan and Rider. In hindsight, had the Hawks not floundered two golden opportunities at Siena before the never-ending road trip, the 2021 regular season MAAC title belt would be in West Long Branch right now.

The 2022 roster is finally set in stone, and what a welcome sight it is to see Marcus McClary back in the mix. McClary will lay the moorings for what projects to be a swarming Hawks’ defensive front. Myles Ruth and Shavar Reynolds are two master thieves themselves, who could set a tandem record for MAAC steals. Last year, Ruth led the entire nation in steals on a per possession basis while Reynolds charted the second most takeaways in the Big East - imagine what he’ll do against ‘JV’ competition in the MAAC…

Reynolds brings so much to the table, a legit two-way stalwart with unflappable moxie. His season debut performance against Iona last season showcased his brilliance in a nutshell. Despite taking just three shots the entire game, he dominated for large stretches, dishing out eight assists while swiping five steals.  For the season, Reynolds held the 5th best assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big East – in summary, I’m all the way in on Reynolds becoming the Hawks’ wheel man.

As explosive as Deion Hammond was, Reynolds is basically a souped-up version of Hammond. Beyond Reynolds, the perimeter speed is plentiful. Multi-faceted guard Samuel Chaput is jet quick off the bench and the unorthodox, yet effective, Marcus McClary can also glide. Few players have logged as many minutes as McClary, who’s been a key cog in Rice’s rotation since 2017. All eyes will be on McClary this year in the wake of Martin and Hammond’s departures.

The MAAC should be on high alert for the brewing Reynolds-to-George Papas connection. Papas flourished in Monmouth’s breakneck transition attack last year, particularly as a spot up trailer, exploiting backpedaling and disconnected defenses retreating on defense. He’s expanded his game into ‘three-level scorer’ territory and represents the Hawks’ most reliable perimeter scoring threat.

The frontline doesn’t pack the same punch as the guard corps, but it may not have to. Nikkei Rutty emerged as a nice interior scoring outlet and vacuum on the boards. Rutty will see time at both the 4 and the 5, while Myles Foster and Klemen Vuga are also waiting in the wings.

Former UNC castaway Walker Miller, a wildcard of sorts, should usurp all of them in the depth chart hierarchy. Rice is adamant about Miller’s shooting and passing prowess, and may look to play inside-out through Miller this year (as told to Blue Ribbon).

Bottom Line: Iona seems to have separated itself from the pack, but King Rice and his Hawks are coming in hot. Floor spacing is a valid concern, perhaps, as Papas is the only prolific shooter on the roster, save maybe Reynolds. This offense won’t live and die by the long ball, though. Speed kills and that’s precisely what the Hawks will lean on in 2022, which will shine through in tenacious, relentless ball coverage in the backcourt.

Tier 3 

5. Rider

Key Returners: Dwight Murray, Ajiri Ogemuno-Johnson, Allen Powell, Jeremiah Pope, Tyrel Bladen
Key Losses: Rodney Henderson, Christian Ings, Dontrell McQuarter
Key Newcomers: Sedrick Altman (Pepperdine), Dimencio Vaughn (Ole Miss, started here at Rider), Mervin James (North Alabama)

***UPDATE: Rider forward Tyrel Bladen is out for season w/ torn ACL

Lineup:

Outlook: Kevin Baggett and his staff braced for impact last season. A talented nucleus split off after the 2020 campaign, leaving Baggett with a mash up of new faces and a blank canvas to work with. Predictably, the season went awry, and Baggett labored through a forgettable year in Lawrenceville.

The Broncs were highly leveraged on the newcomers to fill big shoes, as no one who averaged more than 5 points a game returned for the 2021 campaign. None of the incoming freshmen amounted to anything special but pockets of hope surfaced from the experienced subset, none more alluring than Dwight Murray.

Last year was troubling, but it could’ve spiraled into a full-blown calamity had Murray’s waiver been held up by the NCAA. Ultimately, the former Incarnate Word transfer was cleared for take-off and that’s exactly what he did. From running the offense, to canning tough shots, to covering the opposing team’s best perimeter player, Murray was the superglue adhesive. He was so valuable, Baggett could barely keep him off the floor, even for a quick breather. Murray clocked the 2nd most minutes last season among all MAAC participants.

Despite Murray’s heroics, the Broncs’ amalgamation of new faces manifested in a ‘my turn, your turn’ offense, with seemingly no rhythm or purpose. The Broncs, while talented, resembled a YMCA pick-up team. There was zero cohesion or connectivity.  

The chart below, courtesy of Synergy, highlights this dynamic:

The roster turned over a few key pieces this summer, but it won’t look like last year’s blind dating experiment.

One of the three impactful arrivals already feels like part of the family. Baggett dipped into a well of nostalgia to bring back Dimencio Vaughn, who returns to Rider after a cup of coffee at Ole Miss. Injuries have stuck to Vaughn like white on rice the last few seasons, but Rider fans know what he brings to the table when right. He’s a bruising slasher and matchup nightmare offensively, but his ability to change the game defensively will be a saving grace for last year’s horrid unit.

The Broncs’ in-conference defensive efficiency graded out as worst in the MAAC (1.05 points per possession). That’s not atrocious for power conference standards, but it is in this offensively challenged leaguee. That explains how the Broncs’ defensive efficiency balloons to an alarming 1.14 when adjusted for strength of schedule. Only seven teams in the country were more incompetent on this end, per KenPom.

Of all the new arrivals, Sedrick Altman may make the biggest splash defensively. Altman fits into the prototypical Baggett player mold: long, athletic, and disruptive. Altman, who Baggett calls ‘an elite defender’, should fit like a glove alongside his fellow newcomers in the backcourt.

The push for improved chemistry, ironically, holds true in another newcomer, North Alabama import Mervin James, a former teammate of Murray’s in high school. The simplest way to describe James is a longer, leaner version of Vaughn. He’s a tireless worker with a nose for the rim, constantly putting pressure on opposing frontlines with his activity. He needs to finish more consistently, though, if that high motor is to translate into a net positive on offense. On defense, his length and mobility will certainly be useful.

Personnel is only part of the defensive equation, however. Baggett’s defenses are not always airtight in their collective positioning and rotations, which could hinder the perceived improvement upside on paper. These subtle systemic concerns are worrisome, as is the lack of a feared interior rim protector. Options were already limited, but now the frontcourt forecast looks ominous with   

Baggett and his staff were thrilled to ink Corey McKeithan, a touted prospect coming out of high school, but a knee injury ripped away any optimism last season. Per the Rider News, Baggett sees him as potentially “the next great guard to come through his program.”

Don’t forget about the incumbents not named Murray, either, despite last year’s struggles.

Ajiri Ogemuno-Johnson was Rider’s most efficient offensive contributor and asserted himself as a menace on the glass. Ogemuno-Johnson’s a tenured player in the Rider program who’s seen it all. His reunion with Vaughn is a fun subplot, and his glass half-full outlook on a 2022 turnaround is encouraging for Rider fans: 

“Everybody has to realize that we had a different type of year than we’re normally used to,” Ogemuno-Johnson told the Rider News after the quarterfinal loss to Saint Peter’s. “I trust my coach, he knows he’s not doing this again, that we’re not doing it again as teammates… As far as talent goes, we do have the talent to come back next year and actually make some noise.”

Soon, we’ll find out how prophetic that prognosis was. 

Allen Powell, Jeremiah Pope, and Tyrel Bladen round out the notable returners. Along with Jett Roesing, Powell’s a feared shooting threat from the perimeter. His presence alone will maximize real estate for the Broncs’ bevy of slashers. Bladen, pegged as a crucial defensive stopgap this season, is reportedly done for the year due to a torn ACL.

Bottom Line: Even without Bladen, the Broncs should be demonstrably better defensively than last year. Wholesale changes were needed immediately, and Baggett mostly addressed them via the portal. Projecting the MAAC is always a crapshoot but it’s wide open from #5 on down. Literally, any team could wind up on the 5-seed line, even Fairfield or Marist. Rider is my pick, though, as I expect Baggett to trend back towards the 2018-2020 standards – let’s see if he can avoid the annual MAAC Tournament trip up.

6. Niagara

Key Returners: Marcus Hammond, Justin Roberts, Raheem Solomon, Greg Kuakumensah, Nicholas Kratholm, Jordan Cintron, Shandon Brown
Key Losses: Kobi Nwandu
Key Newcomers: Sam Iorio (South Alabama), Noah Thommason (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Greg Paulus is quickly becoming one of the MAAC’s savviest head coaches.

Consider his inaugural season at the helm, back in 2020. Hamstrung with virtually zero size, he rolled the dice with a guard-centric, 3-point reliance offense. On defense, he tried to hide the Eagles’ shrimpy size via zone. Despite being annihilated on the glass, the Purple Eagles maneuvered their way to a commendable 9-11 record.

Last year, he knew that recipe wouldn’t hold up again. The Eagles shot a blistering (and unsustainable) 41% from 3-point range in conference play during the 2020 campaign. It was only a matter of time until the regression monster came to collect that debt. Sure enough, it did

Niagara went ice cold from the land of plenty last year. The Eagles experienced one of the biggest YOY drops in college basketball, as their 3PT% fell from 37.2% in 2020 to 31.3% last year. Paulus, however, had other tricks up his sleeve, specifically on the defensive end.

It started with his personnel acquisitions of Jordan Cintron and Kobi Nwandu, who completely reshaped the Purple Eagles’ defensive identity. The dearth of size in 2020 forced Paulus to play  Greg Kuakumensah (6’6) as a de facto center. With Cintron and Nwandu in the mix, Kuakumensah slid down to his natural position and the Eagles suddenly looked like a Division-I basketball team. The ascension of Nicholas Kratholm further alleviated the taxing burden on Kuakumensah’s plate from 2020.

In summary, Niagara’s defense went from historically bad to below average, at least by MAAC standards. Paulus won’t be beating his chest over fielding the MAAC’s 3rd worst defense last year but the improvement over 2020 was seismic – and helped overcome an uncharacterizable poor shooting year. Stacking the deck with size also allowed Paulus to cut back on zone (per Synergy, Niagara played zone only 10% of all defensive possessions last year, down from 20% in 2020).

The Eagles’ perimeter defense also chipped in, buoyed by Raheem Solomon, the token perimeter stopper. Solomon, not known for his offensive consistency, caught everyone off guard in the MAAC tournament. He scored 17 and 21 points in back-to-back nights, doing the heavy lifting while the Eagles looked lost on offense. Solomon can catch fire once in a blue moon, but Paulus needs his running mates, Marcus Hammond, Justin Roberts and Shandon Brown, to consistently carry the offense.

Hammond is the Eagles’ bellwether – he finished 2nd in scoring, 1st in rebounds and 1st assists – but was the primary offender behind Niagara’s shooting deterioration. Prevailing wisdom says Hammond is destined for a sharp uptick from last year’s sub-30 percent 3-point field goal percentage. Even with last year’s woes, he still holds a 40% hit rate for his career and led the entire MAAC in 3-point shooting back in 2019 (he also finished 3rd in 2020).

Roberts is another lethal marksman from long distance. Among all MAAC qualifiers, Roberts finished 5th and 2nd in 3-point field goal percentage the last two years, respectively. Brown, on the other hand, is a different kind of specialist. At 5’8, Brown’s slippery speed makes him a pest on both ends.

Whether it’s by design or by happenstance, Paulus’ guard-heavy rosters are well constructed for the press-happy MAAC. Niagara’s boasted one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation for two consecutive years, a developing trademark of Paulus’ coaching identity. When Iona comes to town, this sure-handed backcourt won’t be shellshocked by Pitino’s unrelenting havoc.

Two more newcomers could move the needle as well.

Sam Iorio is a versatile 6’7 tweener in need of a fresh start and reboot after a series of unfortunate events at South Alabama. Last summer, Iorio came down with a brutal case of COVID, which kept him idle for months. Then, after an impressive 16-point debut, he injured his back the very next day, a scar that would linger for the duration of the 2021 campaign: 

"I do think I'm leaving (South Alabama) a way better basketball player than I was leaving American, but unfortunately the numbers kind of show that I ... had a big injury year," Iorio told the Niagara Gazette this offseason.

If the best version of Iorio shows up, we will have snubbed him from the All-Newcomer team.

Noah Thomasson is an even tougher nut to crack. He barely made a dent at Houston Baptist but flipped a switch at Buter CC, a fringe top-25 program, last season. Thomasson paced Butler with 15 points, five rebounds and four assists a game, a highly productive statline in the fiercely competitive NJCAA Region 6. Thomasson may be a sleeping giant but it’s hard to envision him clocking more than 15-20 minutes a game with the depth already in place.

Bottom Line: The Eagles do wave goodbye to their lone All Conference member last season, Kobi Nwandu, but his production is replaceable in a by-committee fashion. The offense is bubbling with upside, especially after last year’s inexplicable shooting woes, while the defense is trending in the right direction, too.

7. Manhattan

Key Returners: Samir Stewart, Anthony Nelson, Elijah Buchanan, Samba Diallo, Warren Williams
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Jose Perez (Marquette), Josh Roberts (St. John’s) 

Lineup:

Outlook: But first, a brief soapbox moment from ‘Matty Manhattan’ – that’s me, defender of all things Jaspers basketball for three years running…

After watching Steve Masiello manage his rotations like a random number generator, I’m officially returning my Jasper bandwagon membership card. I’ve gone to bat for Masiello before but the complete abandonment of basic offensive fundamentals has grown tiresome. Sure, the defensive effort is admirable. But, Steve, can we please try coaching the other side of the ball?

Ok, rant over.

I’ll concede hypocrisy, partially, on Samir Stewart. I was screaming from the mountain top for Masiello to play him more upon his return from an injury midway through the season. That turned out to be a jinx, as Stewart’s underwhelming performance turned into an anticlimactic *womp womp*.

I haven’t the slightest idea what happened to Stewart’s jump shot but it’s been on a sabbatical for the last two years. After canning 48% from bonus land in conference play as a freshman, Stewart is officially 81 for his last 281 (29%).

Still, Stewart remains a net asset on this roster. He’s a pinball on the defensive end, swarming all over the floor in constant pursuit of a steal or block. Maybe I should rest my case for Stewart being this team’s MVP but until someone makes a worthy rebuttal on behalf of anyone else, I’ll continue to chirp

Former Seton Hall transfer Anthony ‘Ant’ Nelson, while productive, hasn’t quite lived up to his power conference pedigree, either. Despite his titillating counting stats, a sub-40% field goal percentage, along with an assist-to turnover ratio below 1.0, must be addressed immediately. 

Elijah Buchanan embodies the exact player prototype Masiello’s been targeting in recent recruiting cycles. The 6’5 wing is an ‘event creator’ on defense but offers minimal value on the offensive end. He’s another ‘sub 40-percent-er’ from the field, with virtually no touch around the rim. Buchanan’s most redeeming quality is his activity on the glass and with how many bricks this team throws up, second chance opportunities are plentiful.

Per hoop-math.com, Mississippi Valley State was the worst ‘finishing’ team in the country last season, as defined by field goal percentage on all shots at the rim – in fact, they were the only team in America to convert less than 50% from point blank range. The Jaspers weren’t much better than the SWAC’s punchline, checking in at 50.8%. Isolating the individual percentages reveals the biggest culprits: Nelson (47.7%) and Buchanan (42.5%). Consider that nearly 45% of their combined attempts were in the restricted area, this was major deadweight on Manhattan’s offense.

In Masiello’s defense, he doesn’t need precise finishers inside with how many bodies he sends to the rim to track down offensive rebounds. But, even converting THOSE second chances is a monumental achievement for this team. Haslametrics.com tracks field goal percentage for second chance shots, specifically, and Manhattan ranked in the basement of that department, too!

The broken record continues with Samba Diallo, who also fell prey to the same finishing ‘yips’ as the others. Diallo’s an outstanding defender, though, and a unique weapon on this roster. Like Buchanan, he’s athletic enough to fly all over the floor but long and bouncy enough to challenge shots inside. Along with Warren Williams and Josh Roberts, two air assailants up front, the Jaspers’ frontcourt will set up a ‘no fly zone’ around the restricted area.

A beacon of hope for an offensive renaissance lies in the hands of Jose Perez, The former Gardner Webb standout was buried in his lone season at Marquette but he returns to comparable competitive landscape as the Big South, which he dominated as a rookie.

Naturally, the newcomer I had my eye on, E.J. Dambreville, is no longer coming to the Big Apple. A high-level shooter and rebounding machine, Dambreville mysteriously revoked his commitment to Manhattan:

Now’s probably a good time to mention that Manhattan shot 26% from 3-point range last year. Only Chicago State was worse. 

Bottom Line: For all the cringeworthy offensive possessions witnessed last year, the Jaspers’ effort level is never in question under Masiello. They play with an infectious energy, which enables their defensive consistency. The fact that most of the nucleus stayed around for a bonus year after last year’s dismal season speaks volumes. Here I go again, betting on a Jasper turnaround – though, within Tier 3, the difference between 5th and 11th place is miniscule, so take this 7th place projection with a grain of salt. 

8. Canisius

Key Returners: Malek Green, Ahamadou Fofana, Jordan Henderson, Armon Harried, Jacco Fritz
Key Losses: Majesty Brandon
Key Newcomers: Delveion Jackson (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Earlier this summer, Reggie Witherspoon did a ‘tell all’ interview with the The Auto Bid podcast, run by Aaron and Andrew Robinson, detailing last year’s events, dating back to last summer. The following bulleted script isn’t inspired by true events – these are true events:

• To set the tone, Canisius couldn’t even get in its own gymnasium when practice commenced, preventing the team from holding any semblance of an organized workout.

• Then, in an informal pickup game gone terribly wrong, which featured players from nearby Buffalo U, Scott Hitchon was stabbed in an all out brawl - yes, this happened.

• When the season arrived in late November, the Griffins remained on ice, opting to abstain from any non-conference action. The waiting game continued…

• After a three-week delay, Canisius finally kicked off the season against Marist. Shortly after, the first batch of COVID landmines erupted. Multiple recurring positive tests kept the Griffins on the sidelines through Christmas. Canisius wouldn’t play again until December 27th – predictably, they were shelled in back-to-back games against Monmouth, outscored by a combined 181 to 135 margin over the two game span.

• They managed to make it home the following weekend unscathed, when they pulled off an impressive home sweep of Saint Peter’s. Then, it happened again – another COVID dynamite stick went KABOOM

• Canisius was stuck in isolation for 40 days, reportedly the 3rd longest layoff in college basketball last season

• Finally, they returned to the hardwood on February 12th. Miraculously, the Griffins swept Quinnipiac in a road back-to-back series

• After yet another COVID pause in late February, Canisius ultimately bowed out in the first round of the conference tournament, finishing the year with a 7-6 record – for the entire season.

The scheduling nightmare forced Canisius to play eight of their 12 conference games away from home. Through the hellacious obstacle course, Witherspoon admitted the coaching staff discussed pulling the plug on the season multiple times – can you blame them?

Oh, and one more thing! Malek Green, who quickly blossomed into one of the MAAC’s top players, opted to get surgery on his foot during the heart of the season. Somehow, it didn’t seem to bother the MAAC’s reigning 6th Man of the Year. Green’s evolution from unsuspecting reserve to indispensable weapon has been nothing short of impressive. His stellar play instilled confidence in both his coach and his teammates, who awarded him the green light to take the baton on offense. Green’s usage rate skyrocketed to 26% last year, a quantum leap from his days at Morehead State.

Green’s supporting cast remains in place, as four full time starters are back in action. Armon Harried and Jordan Henderson are experienced contributors, who patiently waited for their moment in the sun. They were co-deputies under the decorated Malik Johnson back in 2020 and fit that bill again last year with Green taking the reins. Henderson’s the superior offensive player, both as a shooter and facilitator, while Harried takes the cake on defense. This backcourt co-op, along with the hyper versatile Ahamadou Fofana, forms a sturdy foundation for Witherspoon to work with.

Here’s my burning question for the Griffs: Why isn’t Jacco Fritz a more featured hub in the offense? The Dutchman is blessed with enviable size and skill, an adept passer and scorer out of the low block. As a legit double threat inside, it’s baffling how Fritz’s was the least used, literally, of any key contributor last year, save Harried:

Fritz is also a demon on the glass, and his length serves as a barricade defensively. Witherspoon clearly cracked the nut with a Fritz / Green frontcourt pairing last season:

Bottom Line: In the wild, wild MAAC, almost anyone has a puncher’s chance to crack the top-5. The combination of last year’s COVID nightmare and an under the radar talent crop this year figure to make the Griffins a viable threat to finish in the upper half. If you told me Malek Green would be fully healthy all year long, I’d nudge the Griffins up above Manhattan and Niagara, probably. However, Green’s injury risks aren’t going away (he has been slow to ramp up this offseason) and the depth behind him is sparse. 

9. Quinnipiac

Key Returners: Savion Lewis, Tyrese Williams, Tymu Chenery, Jacob Rigoni, Luis Kortright
Key Losses: Seth Pinkney
Key Newcomers: Kevin Marfo (Texas A&M), Dezi Jones (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Welp, let’s call last year ‘a setback’, to put it kindly. The Bobcats boasted one of the worst offenses in America last season. In the NBA obsessed world of college basketball, I present to you the perils of such seduction. Dunleavy finally let his horses loose last year, galloping at one of the fastest tempos in the nation – the three-years prior, Quinnipiac was near the middle of the pack in pace. Unfortunately, the revved-up racecar spun out of control and the Bobcats’ offense went up in flames.

Rather than litigate Dunleavy’s system and general strategy as a program director, we can assume he’ll stick to his guns in 2022, for right or for wrong. Baker has a bevy of guards and wings in his back pocket, handpicked to bring the Villanova-inspired, NBA-ified modern form of offense to life.

Individually, this laundry list of perimeter pieces runs the gamut of strengths and weaknesses. For simplification, let’s pigeonhole them into one of the two key prototypes seen in Villanova’s offense: playmaking guards and versatile wings.

Guards:

• Tyrese Williams: After putting the MAAC on notice with a stellar rookie campaign, Williams has been stuck in neutral. Can he recapture that shooting stroke from the 2018-19 season? Shooting better than 24% from behind the arc would be a start…

• Luis Kortright: Kortright will aim to avoid the same sophomore slump that plagued Williams two years ago. Kortright exploded down the stretch, popping as an innovative creator at the point of attack. He also cashed in from long distance, forming a deadly two-pronged repertoire that should only improve in year 2.

• Savion Lewis: Kortright’s started to bite into Lewis’ minutes last year, as the dime-dropping dynamo shot himself in the foot too frequently on offense. He’s a non-shooter and a loose ball handler, which could pave the way for Kortright to slide into the primary initiator role. Like Williams, Lewis’ persistent inefficiency crippled Quinnpiac’s offense last year. Until he discovers a jumpshot, opposing defenses will continue to sag off. However, he’s a hound defensively – he posted the 3rd highest steal rate in the MAAC.

• Dezi Jones: the great unknown of the guard battalion, Jones seems to fit the fluid lead guard mold Dunleavy’s targeted in recent years. He was both productive and efficient at Moberly CC and this offense is in dire need of a defibrillator.

Wings:

• Jacob Rigoni: The lone All Conference recipient last year, Rigoni’s game is pure shooter with a side of rebounding and rim attacking. His ability to drill it from deep put him on the map, but he’s tacked on incremental part of his game in recent years.

• Tymu Chenery & Brendan McGuire: This jack-of-all-trades duo will plug-n-play at multiple spots on the floor. Again, versatility rings true with both here.

Had KC Ndefo stayed in the portal, Kevin Marfo’s boomerang back to Hamden would’ve been ‘above the fold’ news. The Bobcats know exactly what they’re getting – the question is, how does he stack up with Seth Pinkney, who moved on to greener pastures this summer. The chart below shoes Marfo’s 2020 impact at Quinnipiac, juxtaposed with Pinkney’s impact last year:

Ultimately, this breaks down into two domains: rebounding and rim protecting. As far as the former, Pinkney’s towering 7-foot frame gives him an edge in that department, but Marfo, despite standing four inches shorter, is a menace on the glass. Marfo’s a more gifted offensive player in general but it’s virtually impossible to match Pinkney’s impact defensively, specifically as a paint protector.

Behind Marfo, a pair of sophomores, Elias King and JJ Riggins, will look to cement themselves as key cogs up front. King showed promise early, but mysteriously fell off the map after four strong games – Blue Ribbon confirms his absence was due to COVID complications.

I swoon over Quinnipiac’s talent every year, but the Bobcats repeatedly find a way to underachieve. The jury’s still out on Baker Dunleavy’s coaching prowess, but he’s a terrific salesman. He suckering me into the allure of a potential pace and space infused offense with guards flying all over the court. 

Bottom Line: Don’t look now but Dunleavy’s going the wrong way in Hamden. The allure of what his offense could look like has been ruined by the persistent ineffectiveness of a talented, yet erratic, backcourt. With Marfo back, the offense should improve but the defense is due for regression (Pinkney was THAT imposing). The net impact? Well, it all boils down to Kortright, who’s been dubbed the messiah by local Bobcat supporters. A 5th place finish is certainly within grasp, but I’ll be stunned if Dunleavy climbs any higher than that. 

10. Marist

Key Returners: Raheim Sullivan, Ricardo Wright, Jordan Jones, Matthew Herasme
Key Losses: Hakim Byrd, Michael Cubbage
Key Newcomers: Samkelo Cele (Southern), Noah Harris, Rollin Belton, Jao Ituka

Lineup:

Outlook: Am I the only one here who needs a cheat sheet to differentiate Marist and Fairfield? Pardon my Midwest geographical ignorance but approximately once a week during the season, my brain runs into the “wait, is John Dunne at Marist or Fairfield?” fork in the road.

Ok, got it. Marist, the one in Poughkeepsie, is where Dunne reigns.

Until Dunne, the Doctor of Defense, retires or moves to another school, our annual Marist preview may as well be a boilerplate template with control-find-replaced player names in the appropriate slots. His ‘defense over everything mantra’ rules the day, just as it did during his time at Saint Peter’s. Not to diminish the players here but the personnel isn’t all that important. Death, taxes and walling off the rim with an impassable moat are certainties in Dunne’s regime.

Jordan Jones returns as the apex predator of the rim protectors. Last year, Marist boasted the nation’s 3rd best defensive field goal percentage in hoop-math.com’s ‘At Rim’ classifier and ranked 20th nationally in Haslametrics’ ‘Near Proximity’ classifier. Jones was the eraser behind it all, an imposing obstacle in the heart of Dunne’s defense.

Jones has struggled with foul trouble his whole career, though, typically clocking 20 minutes a game. Braden Bell holds down the fort when Jones needs a breather, but the 6’7 swiss army knife is most comfortable at the 4, alongside Jones at the second forward position. Bell couldn’t find the range last year but a 38% 3PT% in 2020  is reason to believe he’ll dial it up from distance again this year. Still, as is the case for any Dunne player, Bell’s value lies in his defensive versatility.

Victor Enoh, a 250-pound roundhouse, returns to spell Jones after an injury kept him on ice for the second half of last season. The former Memphis transfer throws his weight around up front, and corrals any missed shot in sight. On a per minutes basis, Enoh’s two-way rebounding is right on par with Jones, who finished top-10 in the MAAC in both departments the last two seasons.

As far as offense goes, well, let’s just say this: the Red Foxes will never be confused for the Showtime Lakers. However, Dunne deserves credit for adapting on the fly in the face of a key injury. Marist lost its primary perimeter playmaker in Michael Cubbage four games into the season. With no where else to turn, Dunne called upon a pair of freshmen (Ricardo Wright and Hakim Byrd) and a JUCO unknown (Raheim Sullivan) to carry the freight. As for Sullivan and Wright, neither was efficient by any stretch (both posted individual O-Ratings below 90) but that experience should pay dividends going forward. Wright’s ceiling is probably the higher of the two, given his age and measurables. His frame bears a striking resemblance to Cubbage, a lean, rangy 6’4 wing that can wear both scorer and facilitator hats on offense.

Sharpshooting wing Matt Herasme oddly regressed last season, at least in the shooting department, which is where his services are sorely needed. After canning 40% of his triples in 2020, Hersame made just 18 of his 66 attempts last year (27%). Dunne added another long-range weapon in Samkelo Cele from Southern. Cele canned 39% of his threes a year ago and, as Jordan Majewski points out, should fit like a glove in Dunne’s defense.

Still, it all comes back to Jones, who was arguably the Foxes’ most reliable source of scoring last year. Whether it stemmed from an off ball cut or a basic low block post up, Jones made the most of his opportunities. Dunne would love to see more inside-out balance in 2022 but Jones is a sturdy foundation to build from.

All three rookies should get their bite at the apple, but Noah Harris is the one to track. Harris, heralded as a lights out shooter, was one of the premier snipers in New Jersey his last two years on the grassroots circuit. The well-rounded lead guard attracted interest from a slew of A-10 schools (Drexel, Duquesne, St Bonaventure and La Salle). He can also run a team, blessed with tremendous vision, which could earn him spot minutes at point guard. In short, Harris brings what this team lacks: dynamism.

Bottom Line: Making sense of the MAAC standings last year is impossible but props to Dunne for cracking the .500 threshold. He weathered the storm of Cubbage’s early injury, leaning even harder on his stingy defense while letting his young pups in the backcourt take their licks early. Like every team from 5 through 11, Marist could just as easily crack the top-5 as they could slip into last. Commence crapshoot!

11. Fairfield

Key Returners: Everyone
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: None 

Lineup: 

Outlook: The Stags were dead and buried. It was the heart of January and Fairfield was rotting in the basement of the MAAC standings, while shamefully boasting a 2-12 overall record.

I’ll be honest. I wrote this team off early in the year. Forget about scoring. This offense struggled to make basic side to side passes early on, devoid of any confident ball handlers.

Props to Jay Young for staying the course. The second stanza of Fairfield’s season followed a different arc, aided by a confluence of factors. When it was all said and done, Young came up nine points shy of a MAAC Championship and coveted trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Fresh off an 8-4 finish and remarkable run to the conference tournament title game, is this the year Jay Young turns the corner?

This summer, in an interview with Red Sea Radio (a local Fairfield podcast), Young conceded that he threw too much at his team too quickly last year. He tried to implement a myriad of new packages on offense, which ended up backfiring.

Young was also tied down by the NCAA, who kept two key transfers in timeout until mid-December. Out of the blue, Zach Crisler and Jake Wojcik were deemed eligible. Crisler carved out a nice role for himself off the bench, but Wojcik arguably saved the Stags’ season. It’s hard to understate how much he meant to this downtrodden offense.

Young quickly realized he got way more than he bargained for with Wojcik. His flamethrower of a shot was an established weapon at Richmond, but few thought he could double as a part-time creator. Wojcik’s craftiness and savant basketball instincts instantly brought Fairfield’s offense out of the dark ages. In short, Wojcik moves Fairfield’s offensive needle from anemic to below average.

Wojcik will need all hands on deck to nudge the offense even higher in 2022. Supreme Cook was overshadowed by Nelly Junior Joseph’s dominance at Iona but Cook was an under the radar late bloomer last year. He was limited by an injury early on, but he turned on the jets down the stretch. He’s raw, still, but the upside jumps off the screen. If moves like this become the norm this season, I’m officially too low on the Stags:

Jalen Leach missed out on the springtime fun but he’s another plus shooter to pair with Wojcik in the backcourt. 

Volatility is often unique to underclassmen, but the elders were the erratic ones last year. Allan Jeanne-Rose, once considered a pivotal piece to the puzzle, hasn’t made the necessary strides. The real spotlight’s on Caleb Green and Chris Maidoh, who finally put their ebbs and flows to rest late in the year. Green’s the table setter, with three years of starting experience under his belt (two at Holy Cross, one at Fairfield).

Super seniors Jesus Cruz and Taj Benning also return, a pair of long rangy defenders. Benning probably deserved a shoutout on last year’s All Conference team, but that will only add more fuel to his fire in 2022. I’m more intrigued by Cruz, who slowly embraced a subtle demotion to 6th man last season. Cruz is a classic case of eye test and data disagreeing. Cruz’s efficiency plummeted last season, nearly becoming an offensive liability. That said, his offensive repertoire offers hope for an emphatic bounce back this year. He’s crafty scorer in the mid-range and can back down smaller, weaker guards in the lane. The key will be converting those mismatch opportunities more consistently.

Bottom Line: Don’t bother doing the following calculus: MAAC Tournament runner up + returns everyone = last place team? The team who finishes last this year isn’t going 3-17. I’d wager the bottom of the totem pole is shared by multiple teams, likely at 7-13 or 8-12. The Stags’ ceiling runs as high as 5th place but the more likely outcome skews towards this end of the spectrum.