- Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Jalen Pickett, Jr., Siena
Coach of the Year: Carm Maciariello, Siena
Newcomer of the Year: Berrick JeanLouis, Jr., Iona
Freshman of the Year: Aidan Carpenter, Fr., Siena

Tier 1

1. Siena

Key Returners: Jalen Pickett, Manny Camper, Gary Harris Jr., Jordan King, Kyle Young
Key Losses: Donald Carey, Elijah Burns, Sammy Friday, Matt Hein
Key Newcomers: Dana Tate (Rhode Island), Nick Hopkins (Belmont), Harrison Curry (Detroit), Aidan Carpenter

*** Jackson Stormo and Kyle Arrington are awaiting waiver to become immediately eligible

Lineup:

Outlook: The class of the MAAC in 2019-20, Siena blew past preseason expectations winning the conference outright after being picked 6th to start the year. New head coach Carm Maciariello led the Saints to the school’s best finish since 2016 and had the inside track towards an NCAA Tournament bid, which would have been the program’s first since 2010. After a rough 6-5 start to the conference season, Siena rattled off nine straight wins and evolved into one of the better mid-majors in the land. Carm brings back two of the best players in the league to go with a transfer class brimming with potential. The Saints have an excellent shot at winning back to back MAAC titles for the first time since a guy named Fran McCaffery roamed the sidelines in Albany.

All eyes will be on Jalen Pickett, the reigning MAAC POY and one of the best players in the country at any conference level. Pickett didn’t quite ascend to Super Saiyan status ala Ja Morant during his sophomore season, but he was still excellent in a less ball-dominant role compared to his year under Jamion Christian. There’s nothing on the floor Pickett cannot do – he’s led the league in assist rate two straight years, he’s posted very low turnover rates in college, he can shoot, he can score, and he can play defense. Pickett particularly excels in the pick-n-roll, a staple of Maciariello’s offense, scoring 0.972 PPP (91st percentile nationally) as the ball handler off ball screens in 2019-20.

This season look for Pickett to continue his dominance over the MAAC as his game continues to mature and lead the Saints back to the top of the conference.

The Robin to Pickett’s Batman is Manny Camper, a 1st Team All-MAAC member last season who enjoyed quite the breakout during his junior year. Camper averaged a double-double and ranked in the top ten in both OR% and DR% in the MAAC and 2nd in FT rate. He’s best at attacking the basket in transition and creating extra possessions off the glass for Siena on the offensive end. Maciariello likes to space the floor so Camper often mans the 4 spot, but he’s just as capable of playing out on the wing in a more perimeter role.

Offense will go through and be dictated by Pickett – Siena pushes off the defensive glass and gets out in transition but it’s mostly a half-court team. The Saints take good shots, ranking 29th in the country last season in percentage of shots near the rim, and thanks to Pickett were one of the most efficient PnR teams in the nation last year. Sophomores Gary Harris, Jr. and Jordan King will flank the star PG on the wings. Harris started 15 games as a freshman and is a super athletic slashing and defensive wing, while King is a knockdown outside shooter who hit 43.1% of his triple tries in MAAC play.

Two newcomers, Nick Hopkins and Aidan Carpenter, could also play major roles in the Siena backcourt rotation this year. Hopkins is a Belmont transfer whose made 37% of his career 389 3PA. Carpenter is a 6’5” freshman combo guard and heir apparent to Pickett. He’ll be mostly a slasher offensively and has tons of potential as a defensive stopper with his length and athleticism. Carpenter joined Siena at the end of last season, so he already has practice experience under his belt. His main improvement point will be his outside shooting, as his release point is far too low to expect consistency at the DI level.

Partnering with Camper in the frontcourt will be 6’9” sophomore Kyle Young, Rhode Island transfer Dana Tate, and Detroit transfer Harrison Curry. Young was the highest used Siena player when he saw the floor last season, posting sky high rebounding rates, a decent block rates, and providing a smidge of offense with his size and soft hands. With Burns out of the picture, Young could man the starting five spot all season long in 2020-21. Tate is seeking a waiver to be eligible for the full season, but at minimum he’ll be able to play at semester. He’s a talented and athletic combo forward who can post, shoot, or drive from the perimeter. Curry started six games for the Titans two years ago proving to be an active rebounder and reliable post scorer. He’ll compete with Young for minutes while Tate should have a starting spot locked down.

Freshmen forwards Bennett Kwiecinski and Colin Golson, Jr. likely don’t see much run this season. Kwiecinski is a good-sized, fundamental forward who plays off two feet and has advanced post footwork. Golson has a DI ready frame and is a strong forward who should contribute in a year or two. Pepperdine transfer Jackson Stormo and Western Illinois transfer Kyle Arrington will need waivers to play right away – neither moves the needle much on either end.

Defense will need to improve this season for Siena to truly be nationally elite at the mid-major level. The Saints ranked just 7th in the MAAC last season in defensive efficiency after not forcing turnovers, rebounding poorly, and showing little to no resistance inside. This is an athletic team who added even more athleticism in the offseason, so defense *should* improve in 2020-21 – also it’s highly unlikely opposing MAAC teams will shoot 77.1% from the foul line against them again. The one thing Maciariello’s defense did particularly well last season was forcing teams to play in isolation – the Saints ranked #1 in the league in assist rate allowed and 42nd nationally.

Bottom Line: Siena is the most talented team in the MAAC and has a juicy mix of experience and youth burgeoning with potential. Pickett is the best player in the conference by a fair margin, and he should have his squad in position to take home another league title and finally take his program back to the Big Dance.

2. Iona

Key Returners: Asante Gist, Isaiah Ross, Dylan van Eyck
Key Losses: Tajuan Agee, EJ Crawford, Isaiah Washington, Mo Thiam, Andrija Ristanovic, Ben Perez
Key Newcomers: Osborn Shema (JUCO), Berrick JeanLouis (JUCO), Robert Brown (New Mexico State), Tahlik Chavez (JUCO), Dwayne Koroma, Ryan Meyers, Nelly Junior Joseph, Johan Crafoord, Omar Rowe

Lineup:

Outlook: Whoever had the ticket for Rick Pitino coaching Iona in 2020-21 for +100000000, please send some of that good luck my way. Never in a million years did I expect to see Pitino coaching at a mid-major – and frankly it’s a little surprising he’s back coaching college basketball at all following his Louisville scandal. All that aside, this is a fantastic hire for the Gaels. Anytime a mid-major can hire one of the best college basketball coaches in history it has to do it. Scandal or no scandal, Pitino can flat out coach and he’s a surefire bet to bring Iona back up the MAAC standings.

Pitino replaces Tim Cluess, a legend in his own right in New Rochelle, who missed all of last season and eventually retired from coaching due to health concerns. Cluess coached Iona for nine seasons and led his Gaels to eight 20+ win campaigns, six NCAA Tournaments, and four regular season MAAC championships. I’m not sure there’s a better mid-major coaching resume out there from 2011 – 2019 than Cluess’s outside of Mark Few and Gregg Marshall. He’ll be missed greatly by Iona and the entire college basketball landscape.

So what can we expect from the Pitino-led Gaels this season? For starters, Pitino brings in a ridiculous recruiting class for MAAC purposes highlighted by three top 100 JUCO prospects and a solid cadre of freshmen. This will be the norm for Iona under Pitino – he’ll reel in talented class after talented class and eventually have this program among the best mid-majors in the country. Defensively, Iona is going to look WAYYYY different than it did under Cluess. For all of Cluess’s offensive genius, his defenses often ranged from below average to outright poor. Interim head coach Tra Arnold “led” the Gaels to a 10th place finish in the MAAC adjusted defensive efficiency rankings last year, ranking only ahead of Niagara in that metric. Pitino’s Louisville teams were known for their defense and usually ranked in the top ten of the country in adjusted efficiency. While we shouldn’t expect Iona to reach that type of level, it’s a mortal lock that Iona will greatly improve on this end as early as this coming season.

Pitino’s defenses pressure the hell out of opposing teams – he’ll throw in an aggressive fullcourt man press and drop back into a harassing 2-3 matchup zone. Iona will have the athletes to run this type of scheme and should be able to overwhelm opponents with its superior athleticism.

Offensively, it’s harder to project what type of impact Pitino will have on the program. The Gaels were always a fantastic offensive squad under Cluess so it would be difficult to project a major – if any – improvement on this end. What we can surmise is Iona will likely have a fairly uptempo offense, crash the glass more under Pitino than under Cluess, and rely more so on drives / free throws than the three-point line. Offense ran through EJ Crawford and Tajuan Agee last season – this year will be a more guard-centric attack.

Asante Gist and Isaiah Ross will be looked upon to provide scoring for the Gaels in their redshirt senior seasons. Gist can run the point, having manned that position for Eastern Kentucky a couple years back, and is a career 35.2% from outside the arc. He’s handled a large workload in the past (led the OVC in usage as a freshman) and will be asked to be one of Iona’s primary floor leaders and go-to scorers in 2020-21. Ross, formerly of UMKC, led the MAAC in eFG% and TS% last season after shooting a ridiculous 47% from three-point land in league play. He functions mostly as a spot-up shooter offensively but has the skill to score off the bounce.

The third starting guard spot will likely be awarded to one of the newcomers. 6’5” junior Berrick JeanLouis and 6’2” sophomore Tahlik Chavez, both out of the JUCO ranks, are both capable of earning starting roles and even making pushes for All-MAAC honors this season. JeanLouis is a RIDICULOUS athlete, as this skywalking dunk clearly shows:

JeanLouis began his career at New Mexico State and is the 27th ranked JUCO prospect in the country.

Chavez, the 95th ranked JUCO prospect, poured in 20.4 PPG and shot 44.4% from deep last season. Brandon Goble from JUCO Advocate is very high on Chavez and thinks he could make a significant impact to the Gael lineup this year. Lining up Chavez next to Gist and Ross would give Iona a potent three-pronged three-point attack.

Freshman PG Ryan Myers, a Brooklyn native, could also see playing time in his inaugural season – he’s a tough lefty who can shoot the trey. Colton Cashaw likely resumes a deeper backcourt reserve role, while freshman wing Omar Rowe promises to contribute on the defensive end with his length and athleticism.

Up front look for returning senior Dylan van Eyck to be a staple in Pitino’s rotation. Van Eyck started 13 games last season and led the MAAC in O-rating; defensively he blocks a fair amount of shots and hits the glass. Starting next to van Eyck will be either much-hyped JUCO transfer Osborn Shema or New Mexico State transfer Robert Brown. Shema, the #29 JUCO prospect in the nation, is a very skinny 7’1” forward with loads of potential. Unlike most young 7+ footers, Shema can handle the ball, shoot from the outside, and run the floor. A little polishing around the edges and a little weight could make him into one of the best frontcourt players in the MAAC. At the very least, Shema should provide shot-blocking after ranking 9th in the NJCAA in blocks last season. Brown is a burlier post player whose strength will be a nice complement to Shema’s more finesse game.

Similar to Brown, Nigerian freshman Nelly Junior Joseph brings strength and size to the Iona frontcourt. Swedish forward Johan Crafoord is a skilled, strong athlete with a good-looking outside shot. German freshman Dwayne Koroma is a 3/4 tweener, a skilled lefty who can impact the game on both ends of the floor. Out of the group, expect Crafoord to have the biggest impact and even pick up some spot starts.

Bottom Line: Iona replaces a college basketball legend with another college basketball legend. New Rochelle will reap the benefits of having a big-name coach, bringing in top-notch recruits and much attention to its storied mid-major program.

3. Monmouth

Key Returners: Deion Hammond, Samuel Chaput, Marcus McClary, George Papas, Melik Martin, Nikkei Rutty, Gob Gabriel, Jarvis Vaughan
Key Losses: Ray Salnave, Mustapha Traore, Louie Pillari, Sam Ibiezugbe
Key Newcomers: Donovann Toatley (Chattanooga), Myles Foster, Jack Holmstrom, Myles Ruth, Klemen Vuga

Lineup:

Outlook: King Rice enters his 10th year at Monmouth fresh off a season in which his Hawks exceeded preseason expectations and got back to their winning ways. Rice was the talk of the nation after the 2017 season concluded, having led his Hawks to a combined record of 55-15 (35-5) the two years prior. Despite that wild success, Monmouth didn’t reach the NCAA Tournament and still haven’t to this day under Rice. With three starters returning and several other key rotational pieces, the Hawks will have another legitimate shot at the MAAC crown and that elusive auto-bid.

Monmouth’s tempo whiplashed back to its normal quickness last season after Rice slowed things down (to his detriment) in 2018-19. The Hawks ranked 19th in the country in offensive APL and relied heavily on transition to power their scoring attack. Only ten teams nationally finished plays at a higher rate in transition, and Monmouth especially liked to run off opponent scores in an attempt to catch celebrating defenses snoozing. In the halfcourt Rice will continue with his preferred 4-out, 4-guard lineups and look to space the floor for wing drivers and post touches. The Hawks should be a good ball security team once again this year but will need to improve on one of the country’s worst FG% near the rim.

Defensively, the loss of big man Mustapha Traore will sting, but Rice’s squad should continue to be one of the nation’s best at forcing turnovers. Monmouth’s aggressive style of play results in copious amounts of fouls but it also creates transition opportunities. Rice’s teams have never been good at limiting three-point attempts – they almost seem to prefer opposing teams take them. That can be a good strategy when squads are cold and if a good shot contest is there, but Monmouth has been consistently burned from deep the past three seasons.

Chasing conference championships is made easier when you have a star on your team, and the Hawks have one in Deion Hammond. Hammond earned 1st Team All-MAAC honors after ranking 3rd in the league in scoring last year, and he’s ranked 4th in each of the past two years in the MAAC in percentage of team shots taken. Though Hammond is a high-level scorer and shooter, he really doesn’t create much offensively – rather, he prefers to do his damage off the ball and in transition.

There’s no doubt who the alpha is on Monmouth’s squad this season – Hammond will be on the shortlist for MAAC POY in 2020-21 and is the main reason to like the Hawks’ chances in the conference title race.

Rice has a ton of options on how to fill out the remainder of his starting five and overall rotation. As said earlier, it’s very likely we see Monmouth run almost exclusively 4-guard lineups, but the Hawks do have a bit more depth up front than normal this season. Point guard duties will fall under either junior Samuel Chaput or redshirt sophomore Donovann Toatley’s jurisdiction. Chaput started 30 games for the Hawks last season and was a solid table setter for the high-scoring duo Hammond and Ray Salnave. He uses his quickness to slice and dice through the defense and does more damage attacking the cup than he does shooting the three. Defensively, Chaput is a tough on-ball defender who creates plenty of steals. Toatley might supplant Chaput in the starting five, however, after pouring in 11.2 PPG for Chattanooga as a freshman two years ago. Like Chaput, Toatley is lightning quick and has a knack for drawing fouls. Rice could start and/or play the pair together but that would result in a tiny backcourt look.

Seniors George Papas and Marcus McClary will each be in the mix for starter’s minutes on the wing. McClary started nearly every game last year and can play the de facto 4 in Rice’s smaller lineups. An excellent defender, McClary is very much a “glue guy” for the Hawks – offensively he is NOT a shooter (only 30 career 3P attempts), but he does grab his fair share of offensive boards. Papas is one of the best offensive players on the roster and provided a nice spark to the Hawks off the bench last season. When on the floor, Papas was the 7th highest used player in the league and proved able to run the point as well as play off the ball. Of course, Papas is most famous for his antics late in the Kansas game on November 15th when he stole the ball in garbage time down 50, dunked it, and proceeded to trash talk the Jayhawks:

Given Papas’s size, I’d be surprised if Rice doesn’t start him over one of Toatley or Chaput.

Primary frontcourt minutes will be handled by a combination of 6’8” junior Nikkei Rutty, 6’6” senior Melik Martin, and 6’9” sophomore (maybe redshirt freshman?) Jarvis Vaughan. Rutty ranked 3rd in the MAAC in block rate last season and looks to be a suitable defensive replacement for Traore, however he is limited to “catch and dunk” on the offensive end. Martin was a key sub for the Hawks last year, a player who can man the 3 or 4 spot, provide a little shooting, and guard multiple spots on the defensive side of the ball. Vaughan is an athletic forward who Rice has raved about this offseason. His year was limited due to injury, but rest assured he could start for the Hawks in 2020-21. Vaughan is 21 years old, fully developed physically, and a skilled big man with some range.

Sophomore Gob Gabriel will round out the backcourt rotation – he’s a big guard at 6’7” who could evolve into a plus defender with his length and ability to run like a gazelle. Freshmen Myles Ruth, a “true” point guard, and Jack Holmstrom, a lefty shooter, likely ride the pine in their freshman seasons.

Up front, Myles Foster and Klemen Vuga join the fold as freshmen. Foster boards and scores – he has great touch around the bucket and should develop into a good defender down the road. Vuga is a big Slovenian forward with perimeter skills who could contribute right away.

Bottom Line: Monmouth has been one of the better programs in the MAAC since joining the league in 2013-14. Rice has an experienced roster highlighted by a mid-major star, more than enough to challenge for a conference championship and a bid to the Big Dance in March.

4. Saint Peter’s

Key Returners: Daryl Banks III, KC Ndefo, Fousseyni Drame, Doug Edert, Hassan Drame, Matthew Lee, Dallas Watson
Key Losses: Aaron Estrada, Quinn Taylor, Derrick Woods, Nazeer Bostick, Cameron Jones, Majur Majak
Key Newcomers: Noah Kamba (Murray State)***, Zarique Nutter, Marty Silvera

*** Noah Kamba is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible

Lineup:

Outlook: Holy overachievement Batman! Few teams in the country left their preseason KenPom rating further in the dust than the Peacocks did last season. Shaheen Holloway’s squad was one of the youngest teams in the nation in 2019-20 and were coming off a 10-22 (6-12) year. Because of this, SPU was voted 9th in the preseason MAAC poll and started the year ranked 314th in KenPom. Holloway quickly proved just how wrong we all were about his Peacocks and ended the season ranked 194th and 2nd in the MAAC. This was not a typical college basketball team – the Peacocks’ leading scorer averaged 8.5 PPG and nobody played over 23 MPG. Holloway and Co. relied heavily on defense to win basketball games, a side so often forgotten about by fans and pundits alike. SPU’s best player, Aaron Estrada, transferred away this offseason, but Holloway brings back a promising core of players including five sophomores looking to build upon their solid freshman seasons.

Saint Peter’s overachieved in spite of its offense, which was one of the worst units in the country. Only two players on the squad turned in an offensive rating over 100.0, and the Peacocks ranked 300th nationally in efficiency, 348th in turnover rate, and 345th in 2P%. The offensive glass was the only saving grace for a team that couldn’t find water if it fell out of a boat – that and the free throw line, which SPU desperately clung to, ranking 16th in the country in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe. SPU’s turnover woes was a major reason it was pressed at the 5th highest rate in the country – opposing teams knew they could disrupt the young Peacock guards early and often. Estrada handled most of the ball handling duties last year, so his transfer really hurts – sophomore guard Matthew Lee, junior CG Dallas Watson, and Murray State transfer Noah Kamba will be looked upon to provide some semblance of ball security in the backcourt.

Elite defense can take you far in college basketball, and Saint Peter’s was proof of that in 2019-20. The Peacocks were DOMINANT on this end in MAAC play, posting a defensive rating of 91.5, which would have been the 15th best mark in the country had SPU continued that pace throughout non-conference play. The difference between SPU’s D-rating and the 2nd best defensive squad in the MAAC was GREATER than the difference between the 2nd best squad and the 8th. Holloway extended pressure, often across the entire floor, resulting in SPU forcing a multitude of turnovers. When opposing teams broke through this pressure, they were met by a frontcourt unit that shut down shot opportunities – SPU ranked #1 in the MAAC in eFG% defense and #1 in block rate. Per Synergy, the Peacocks were the 18th best halfcourt man-to-man team in the country on a PPP basis. With KC Ndefo returning, among others, there’s plenty of reason to believe the Peacocks can be this dominant on the defensive end of the floor in 2020-21.

Ndefo was a one-man wrecking crew defensively last season. He was the MAAC Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year and earned 3rd Team All-Conference honors. Despite standing just 6’7”, Ndefo stood up to even the brawniest of post-men, leading the league in block rate and ranking 8th overall in the country.

Ndefo also led the MAAC in steal rate, a feat almost never accomplished by a forward, and was one of the better rebounders in the league on both ends of the floor. His defensive positioning and footwork is near-perfect, and he should be the fiercest defender in the MAAC once again this season.

Splitting time with Ndefo in the frontcourt (as is Holloway’s rotation preference) will be the brothers Drame, Fousseyni and Hassan. Both are 6’7”, both are mobile forwards, both have the ability to face-up from the perimeter and drive to the cup. Fousseyni Drame ranked 4th in the MAAC in OR% and 6th in steal rate last season while Hassan Drame ranked 5th in the MAAC in both OR% and DR%. Neither, of course, were efficient offensively, but there’s plenty of hope for improvement in just their second collegiate seasons.

Everyone else on the roster will be factors in Holloway’s backcourt / wing rotation – SPU played the most bench minutes in the country last season and it wasn’t even that close. Daryl Banks III, Doug Edert, and Matthew Lee – all sophomores – likely start for the Peacocks. Banks III earned MAAC All-Rookie honors, showing his ability to get to the line and attack the basket with impressive quickness. He’ll look to improve upon woeful shooting splits this year. Edert was also a member of the MAAC All-Rookie squad and one of the two Peacocks to post an O-rating over 100.0 He’s a pure shooter who knocked down 44.2% of his triple tries last season. Lee likely takes on the PG duties with Estrada’s departure, a scary thought after he posted a 30.5% turnover rate as a freshman. Shaky ball handling aside, Lee is an excellent outside shooter and a pesky on-ball defender.

Dallas Watson played a ton early in the year before being relegated to a more bench-centric role – he hasn’t posted an O-rating over 80.0 in two seasons and is in danger of falling deeper down the pecking order.

Holloway’s newcomers are dripping with potential and could all make immediate impacts with the coach’s willingness to play everyone on his roster. Noah Kamba was a highly regarded recruit coming to Murray State, and I actually picked him to win Freshman of the Year in the OVC last season. That clearly did not come to fruition, as Kamba played sparingly for the Racers and struggled when he saw the floor. Still, the talent is there for Kamba to develop into a dangerous offensive player in the MAAC – something SPU could really use. Freshman wing Zarique Nutter out of the Patrick School has the athleticism, length, and quickness to be an immediate factor on defense. His offensive game needs some polish, but at least he already has “run the floor and dunk” nailed down pat. Freshman PG Marty Silvera out of Putnam Science Academy is a thick guard who plays low to the ground ala Matthew Lee. He’s very skilled and could carve out a spot in Holloway’s rotation if the other guards on the roster fail to cut down on costly turnovers.

Bottom Line: Saint Peter’s is not a sexy team. The Peacocks will get overlooked due to their ugly style of play, physicality, bad offense, and lack of individual counting stats. But rest assured, this is still the best defensive team in the MAAC and one of the best defensive teams in the mid-major realm – that means a ton in college basketball and is enough to vault them into the top four of the conference standings this year.

Tier 2

5. Canisius

Key Returners: Majesty Brandon, Armon Harried, Jordan Henderson, Jacco Fritz, Scott Hitchon, Jalanni White, Akrum Ahemed
Key Losses: Malik Johnson, Corey Brown
Key Newcomers: Malek Green (Morehead State), Ahamadou Fofana (JUCO), George Maslennikov (JUCO), Siem Uijtendaal, Asa Beyah

Lineup:

Outlook: Last season was a forgettable one in Canisius basketball program history. The Griffs threw a few haymakers with a win against St. Bonaventure and a 30-point drubbing over UIC but ultimately finished 10th in a down MAAC, getting swept by Fairfield and splitting with Niagara in the process. It was the worst season in the 4-year tenure of head coach Reggie Witherspoon, the first time his Griffs have finished below .500 in conference play. Inconsistency was a major factor in Canisius’s floundering – the Griffs ranked 340th in Haslametrics’ consistency rating, good one night and dumpster fire poor the next. Canisius loses Malik Johnson to graduation, its point guard who played the 4th most minutes in the country in 2019-20, but brings back nearly everyone else for what should be a better season.

Witherspoon is known for running the continuity ball screen offense, a motion half-court attack predicated on, well, ball screens and tons of cutting.

Witherspoon had good offenses his first two years at the helm of Canisius – and his Buffalo squads were usually solid on this end as well – but the past two seasons have been disastrous. Last year the Griffs ranked 8th in the MAAC in offensive efficiency driven by bad shooting, lack of trips to the foul line, and poor shot selection (read: lots of mid-range jumpers). As is expected from Witherspoon’s offensive style, Canisius ranked #1 in the country in plays ended via cuts and also turned in one of the highest assist rates in the nation for the 4th consecutive season. The system is there for this team to be successful, the players just need to execute.

Having a ball dominant point guard is not a requirement in this offense, but it obviously helps to have a rock-solid lead guard at the point of attack. Without Johnson, Canisius has a huge hole at this position. Majesty Brandon is probably the most likely to take on primary ball handling responsibilities, but he is much better served as an off-ball attacker where he can really use his scoring ability to his advantage. Brandon was a super-sub sixth man last season and ranked 2nd in the MAAC in percentage of team shots taken. He shot 37.4% from deep in conference play and had a few scoring outbursts like his 30-point effort against Siena on December 23rd. He excels in the pick-n-roll – obviously a staple in Witherspoon’s offense – and is a viable late-clock option when attacks stall.

Witherspoon’s other ball handling options include junior Jordan Henderson, JUCO transfer Ahamadou Fofana, and freshman Asa Beyah. Henderson is a talented scoring wing who doubles as one of Canisius’s better on-ball defenders. Like Brandon, though, he’s better off the ball where he’s a deadly spot-up threat. Fofana eared 1st Team DII NJCAA All-American honors last season after averaging 20.3 PPG. Again, he’s much more of a scorer than a table setter, a talented and skilled guard who has a really nice mid-range game and good-looking three-point stroke. Beyah is an actual point guard, but he’ll need time to adjust to DI basketball.

On the wing, look for 6’4” sophomore Armon Harried and 6’5” sophomore Akrum Ahemed to compete for starting minutes. Harried was a regular starter as a freshman but desperately needs to improve on his .413 / .239 / .569 (2P / 3P / FT) shooting split to see that type of run this year. Ahemed started six games before going down with a season-ending foot injury – he’s a super long guard with tons of potential for a breakout in 2020-21. Dutch freshman Siem Uijtendaal is an intriguing player with his 6’6” frame and advanced ball handling and passing skills – he could be a dark horse option to steal point guard minutes if turnovers become an issue.

Canisius will have one of the deeper frontcourts in the MAAC this season with four viable options to man the 4 and 5 spots. Dutch sophomore Jacco Fritz earned MAAC All-Rookie honors last year after putting up impressive finishing numbers and a solid offensive rebounding rate. He’s a very mobile and versatile big whose offensive potential is quite high, however, defensively Fritz needs to really improve after getting consistently dismantled on post-ups as a freshman. Seniors Scott Hitchon and Jalanni White were each regular starters as sophomores but mostly came off the pine last season. Hitchon was Canisius’s highest used player when he saw the floor last season; he’s a very good offensive big man who can stretch the floor or drive the lane. White is a better rebounder than Hitchon and the team’s best (only?) legit shot blocker. He’s a long, active big man with good touch around the block. Morehead State transfer Malek Green will be right in the mix with the three aforementioned forwards for playing time. Green is an efficient 4-man who does his best work on the defensive glass and as an athletic basket attacker offensively. Ukrainian JUCO transfer George Maslennikov, a former DePaul Blue Demon, likely doesn’t see the floor much in his first season in Buffalo.

Three out of four seasons, Witherspoon’s defenses have been atrocious at Canisius. Last year’s group ranked 249th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and 8th in the MAAC. The Griffs force opposing teams to play very fast, force turnovers, and take away the three effectively; however, they were buried inside last season and dead last in the conference in eFG% defense. Personnel-wise, this should be an improved team defensively, it’s just hard to really trust that assumption given Witherspoon’s track record at the school.

Bottom Line: There’s no question Canisius gets better this season, but I still don’t see the Griffs as a threat to win the MAAC title. Somewhere between 4th and 8th seems about right, with a heavier emphasis towards the upper-half of the league standings.

Tier 3

6. Manhattan

Key Returners: Elijah Buchanan, Samir Stewart, Warren Williams, Nehemiah Mack, Romar Reid
Key Losses: Pauly Paulicap, Tykei Greene, Christian Hinckson, Tyler Reynolds, Michael Okafor
Key Newcomers: Anthony Nelson (Seton Hall), Jason Douglas-Stanley (George Mason), Marques Watson (JUCO), Nick Brennen (JUCO), Samba Diallo (UMass), Arkel Lamar (UMBC)

Lineup:

Outlook: Manhattan had an up-and-down year in 2019-20, looking to be a competent mid-major squad one game and a dumpster fire the next. However, the Jaspers were in fact light years better than their 2018-19 squad despite finishing with a similar conference record – per KenPom Manhattan finished 51 spots higher nationally last season. Steve Masiello enters his 10th year as head coach in Riverdale; he enjoyed overwhelming success his first four seasons, taking the Jaspers to two NCAA Tournaments and turning his squad into a perennial MAAC contender. Since 2014-15, however, Manhattan has been a bad basketball program. The Jaspers haven’t finished above .500 since that season and seem to be stuck in the middle of an always-challenging league. 2020-21 promises to be more of the same with three starters transferring out – Masiello will rely on several newcomers to make his team competitive in his 10th season.

One of the strangest trends of Masiello’s coaching career has been his decision to pump the brakes on his team’s offensive pace. In three out of Masiello’s first four seasons, Manhattan played at one of the fastest tempos in the country – since then, the Jaspers have played much, much slower. Lack of talent could certainly be a factor in this decision, but why try to fix something that didn’t appear to be broken? Then again, Manhattan has never really been a good offensive team under Masiello – he’s had zero top 250 offenses since 2015 and prior to that he peaked at 134th. Manhattan moves the ball well on offense – the Jaspers are consistently among the top teams in the nation in assist rate – and they get to the free throw line at a very high rate. One of the main issues the past two seasons has been FT shooting – Manhattan has ranked 353rd (dead last) and 348th in FT% over the past two years. Offense often went through Pauly Paulicap last year, the usage leader in the MAAC and current DePaul Blue Demon. His departure might hurt the Jaspers on both ends, but curiously Hoop Lens shows Manhattan was far better on the floor offensively when Paulicap sat. The Jaspers managed just 0.82 PPP when Paulicap was on the floor versus 0.93 PPP when he rode the pine – a very interesting stat indeed.

Defense is Manhattan’s bread and butter. Masiello hails from the Rick Pitino coaching tree meaning he’s all about pressure, pressure, and more pressure. Manhattan ranked 9th in the country in zone usage last season (Masiello runs an aggressive matchup zone similar to Pitino did at Louisville) and 3rd nationally in full-court press frequency. Masiello’s teams turn you over and make you uncomfortable every time down the floor. With this amount of pressure it’s very difficult to get clean three-point looks against the Jaspers, but, as most high-pressure defenses tend to do, Manhattan always ranks among the highest FT rates allowed in the land.

So, should we expect more of the same from Manhattan in 2020-21? Bad offense paired with good defense? Yes, yes we should.

Scoring is going to be problematic this season for the Jaspers unless Masiello’s incoming transfers contribute in a major way. Returning in the backcourt is 6’5” junior Elijah Buchanan and 6’0” point guard Samir Stewart. Buchanan is an inefficient wing who has posted O-ratings of 65.3 and 82.9 in his first two collegiate seasons. While he is a capable ball handler, Buchanan is just 21.8% for his career from downtown on a whopping 110 attempts. He has the size on the perimeter to be impactful, but he needs to get wayyyy more efficient (i.e. take better shots) for Manhattan to be successful. Stewart is a much more reliable and efficient basketball player. He’ll handle the ball most of the time and double as one of Manhattan’s best on-ball defenders on the other end. Stewart has shown he can be deadly from deep, shooting 39.8% two years ago from beyond the arc, but last season he was a dreadful 28.5% on 179 attempts. Stewart plays in control and is a physical guard who can get into the lane with relative ease – he’ll be arguably Manhattan’s most important player this season.

Seton Hall transfer Anthony Nelson needs to be good right away for Manhattan to have any semblance of a competent offensive attack. Nelson can run point alongside Stewart and assume a large scoring role if needed. Though his playing time was limited overall, he started two games for the Pirates last season and in those two contests averaged 11.0 PPG and 5.5 APG. Returning CG Nehemiah “Bud” Mack will also be in the mix for backcourt minutes after starting seven games last year. Mack is the best returning outside shooter on the roster. George Mason transfer Jason Douglas-Stanley will provide more perimeter shooting, as will JUCO transfer Nick Brennen who shot 39.5% and averaged 12.3 PPG for his college last year. Sophomore guard Romar Reid and JUCO transfer Marques Watson round out the primary backcourt rotation while 6’2” senior Ethan Lasko likely resumes his deep, seldom-used backup role.

Warren Williams will be the primary big man with Paulicap no longer in the picture. Williams has ranked in the top five of the MAAC in block rate two straight seasons and is a solid offensive rebounder when he can stay out of foul trouble. Williams’s biggest asset is his ability to get good, deep position in the paint – he has a strong lower body he can use to clear space inside for easy layups or driving lanes. His biggest improvement point will continue to be his FT shooting – last season he converted 58.7% of his attempts from the charity stripe, up from 49.6% his freshman year.

UMass transfer Samba Diallo will start at the 4 after being granted a waiver to play immediately. He started 30 games for the Minutemen and ranked 4th in the A-10 in FT rate as a sophomore. Diallo’s presence is enormous for a Manhattan frontcourt in need of legit talent – he bolsters the team’s rebounding and defense in addition to giving it more pop on the offensive end. Ebube Ebube should also be in the mix for a starting frontcourt spot. Ebube missed most of last year after turning in a solid 2018-19 season. He ranked 4th in the MAAC in OR% two years ago and even started experimenting with a three-point shot. Recent UMBC transfer Arkel Lamar is a gigantic late addition for the Jaspers, a player that is somehow still in college (he was on UMBC’s 16-seed squad that unseated Virginia many moons ago). Lamar was hurt most of last season but offers plenty of versatility and shooting from the 3 or 4 when healthy. 6’10” sophomore Adam Cisse and 6’9” redshirt sophomore Daniel Schreier round out Manhattan’s frontcourt rotation.

Bottom Line: Manhattan remains firmly in the middle of the MAAC pecking order in 2020-21. The Jaspers have finished between 6th and 8th in the league standings four out of the last five years and promise to do the same this season.

7. Rider

Key Returners: Christian Ings, Ajiri Ogemuno-Johnson, Allen Powell
Key Losses: Stevie Jordan, Dimencio Vaughn, Fred Scott, Tyere Marshall, Willy Nunez, Kimar Williams, Tyrei Randall
Key Newcomers: Rodney Henderson (CSUN), Dontrell McQuarter (JUCO), Jeremiah Pope (JUCO), Lawrence Foreman, Nehemiah Benson, Jordan Smalls, Corey McKeithan, Jaelen McGlone, Dwight Murray Jr. (Incarnate Word)***, Malachi De Sousa (Albany)***

*** Dwight Murray Jr. and Malachi De Sousa are awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s been 26 years since the Rider Broncs have been to the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Kevin Baggett seemed poised to change that, amassing arguably the most talented roster in the MAAC in each of the past three seasons. Rider was expected to be the class of the conference in 2018-19 and 2019-20 following a breakout 2017-18 campaign, but results fell far below expectations. Baggett has enjoyed a fair amount of success in his eight years at the helm in Lawrenceville, but even he can likely admit his Broncs should’ve gone to a Dance or two. Now Baggett’s roster completely flips over – Rider loses four starters plus three other major contributors leaving only minor role players and a slew of newcomers left to pick up the pieces. 2020-21 promises to be Baggett’s most challenging season in quite some time.

Only four players return from last year’s 12-8 MAAC squad. Of those four only sophomore guard Christian Ings is a lock to receive ample playing time in 2020-21. Ings turned in a decent freshman year, starting 18 games and proving he could play on or off the ball. Though he was a low usage player in 2019-20, Ings showed flashes of his potential, particularly off ball screens where he could use his quickness to get to the hole.

With plenty of production left behind, Ings is a good candidate to put up a double-figure scoring average while taking on the lion’s share of point guard responsibilities.

Fellow backcourt returner Allen Powell saw the floor in a deeper reserve role last season – he was simply awful from an offensive efficiency standpoint, converting just 7/40 of his three-point attempts as a freshman. Powell should take on a larger role this year and compete for starts, but he’ll need to drastically improve his shooting numbers to maintain a consistent place in the rotation.

Frontcourt returners Ajiri Ogemuno-Johnson and Tyrel Bladen will both be in the mix for starts and major PT. Ogemuno-Johnson is a fierce rebounder but doesn’t possess much offensive skill past catch-and-dunk. Bladen is the biggest player on the team and will add value as a rebounder and shot blocker.

Rider’s most important players this season might hail from the JUCO ranks. 6’7” wing Dontrell McQuarter and 6’4” guard Jeremiah Pope should both compete for starting gigs in a wide-open Bronc rotation. McQuarter is a top-125 JUCO prospect who poured in 15.0 PPG last season; he’s a versatile guard/forward who can play out on the wing or post on the block. Pope averaged 19.3 PPG while shooting 40.7% from deep on 214 attempts at his JUCO last season. He has a real shot to lead the Broncs in scoring in his first season Lawrenceville. CSUN transfer Rodney Henderson will also compete for starts after playing just three games for the Matadors last season. Henderson is a shooter who possesses good size on the perimeter. Incarnate Word transfer Dwight Murray Jr. and Albany import Malachi De Sousa will need waivers to play in 2020-21 but given the current environment that seems highly likely. Murray scored and shot well for an atrocious UIW squad – it’s hard to know how he’ll translate to a better team and league, but I’d wager he fills a regular role in the rotation if eligible. De Sousa is a versatile wing who would compete for starts if able to play.

Everyone else on the Broncs roster is a freshman, and none have a truly impressive recruiting pedigree. Point guard Corey McKeithan could play a role in year one – he’s very talented, quick, and has a good handle. He’ll be a prototypical table-setter behind Ings. 6’4” wing Jaelen McGlone has the bounce and size to play at the DI level and carve out a rotation spot in 2020-21. 6’7” wing Jordan Smalls will add athleticism and size to the perimeter, while frontcourt pieces Lawrence Foreman and Nehemiah Benson will duke it out with Bladen and Ogemuno-Johnson for playing time up front.

Offensively, Rider likely takes a massive step back in 2020-21. The Broncs were the 4th best offense in the MAAC last season and featured an uptempo attack with a heavy emphasis on rim attack and getting to the foul line. Rider ranked 17th in the country in FT rate last season, and Baggett’s squads are consistently good on the glass. Frankly, I’m not sure who scores for this team. There is no Stevie Jordan, Dimencio Vaughn, Fred Scott, or Tyere Marshall walking through the door. A lot depends on the JUCO recruits.

Defensively, expect the Broncs to be solid on the boards once again – as they are every year under Baggett – and allow a ton of threes. Baggett’s squads have been burned in the past with their tendency to pack it in versus extend out past the arc, but last season opposing team’s shot just 31.2% against the Broncs despite Rider giving up by far the highest rate of threes in the MAAC. Like the offensive end, the losses of Vaughn and Marshall will truly hurt Rider’s productivity on this end. Baggett’s defense should have his trademark tough / physical mentality, but nobody is proven on this roster. 

Bottom Line: Baggett has earned the respect of a “program bump” when predicting the MAAC standings. The worst his Broncs have finished in conference play in eight seasons is T-7th, and Rider has only finished below .500 twice during his tenure. Further, from a KenPom perspective, Baggett’s worst Rider team ranked 223rd – he consistently has his program around the 160 – 220 range, and though this might truly be his worst team in nine years, we shouldn’t expect a colossal fall past that range in 2020-21.

8. Quinnipiac

Key Returners: Tyrese Williams, Matt Balanc, Brendan McGuire, Jacob Rigoni, Seth Pinkney, Savion Lewis, Tyree Pickron
Key Losses: Rich Kelly, Kevin Marfo, Aaron Falzon
Key Newcomers: Elias King (JUCO), Bol Akot, Tymu Chenery, Luis Kortright, Jamil Riggins (Redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: One has to wonder about Baker Dunleavy’s take on the transfer market in college basketball. The 4th year head coach was set to have his best team at Quinnipiac this season prior to the announcement of All-Conference players Kevin Marfo and Rich Kelly leaving the squad. Marfo and Kelly would have been senior leaders on a Bobcat team that fit well together and was rich in experience. Considering Texas A&M and Boston College were the landing spots for the transfers, it’s safe to say those two would’ve made enormous impacts on the MAAC this season. Alas, Dunleavy is left sans star players, but he does bring back enough to be dangerous in the middle of an always-competitive MAAC in 2020-21.

Dunleavy played for and coached under Jay Wright at Villanova, so it’s no surprise he derives his offensive style from his mentor. Quinnipiac spaces the floor offensively and shoots as many threes as humanly possible. In his three years at the helm, Dunleavy’s Bobcats have ranked 7th, 4th, and 2nd in the country in 3PA rate. His Cats shoot it well, too, ranking 51st last season in 3P% at a solid 35.7% overall clip. Aside from trey-bombing, though, Quinnipiac’s offense wasn’t much to write home about in 2019-20. The Bobcats ranked just 6th in the MAAC in adjusted efficiency, turned it over often, and hardly ever got second-chance shots off the glass. Dunleavy’s offenses are fun to watch – it’s a very unselfish style of play – but Quinnipiac still has light years to go before catching up to Jay Wright’s level of efficiency at Nova.

Quinnipiac’s defense has been horrendous under Dunleavy, ranking 313th, 310th, and 300th nationally in adjusted efficiency the past three seasons. The Bobcats administer very little pressure and instead prefer to sit back in a matchup-y 2-3 zone that opposing offenses had no trouble picking apart in 2019-20. When not in zone, Quinnipiac was still decimated by ball screens, ranking 2nd to last in the country in PPP allowed to a PnR ball handler, and when in zone the Bobcats were consistently burned from downtown and by cuts in the soft spots in the middle of the floor. The athleticism is improving on this roster, but there’s no reason to believe a massive improvement is coming on this end of the floor.

Rick Kelly’s transfer leaves the Bobcats with a hole at the point guard position. Junior guard Tyrese Williams is likely the leading candidate to fill the primary ball handler role, but Dunleavy could also opt to start 6’1” sophomore Savion Lewis and play Williams more off the ball. Williams is a high usage player who can shoot the three and get to the basket with his unique combination of strength and quickness – he’ll be the Cats’ leading scorer this season and go-to guy on offense. Lewis played just eight games last year due to injury but has the talent to make a consistent impact on the lineup when healthy. Freshman Bol Akot, who received offers from Towson and St. Bonaventure in addition to Quinnipiac, looks to be a promising point guard of the future. He’s quick and crafty with the ball, a creator who can set the table for his teammates as well as a guy who can put the ball in the hole.

Sophomores Matt Balanc and Brendan McGuire should expect decent spikes in their playing time on the wings this season. Balanc is a scoring guard who has yet to prove he can actually shoot the ball with consistency. McGuire is a point forward of sorts who ranked 2nd on the team and 4th in the MAAC in assist rate least season. Like Balanc, McGuire needs to improve on a 25% 3P clip, and he also needs to chop down a ghastly 39.5% TO rate.

Rounding out Quinnipiac’s guard rotation will be junior Tyree Pickron and freshmen Luis Kortright and Tymu Chenery. Pickron is mostly a spot-up shooter (Quinni has a lot of those) while Chenery and Kortright offer more in the realm of athleticism. Chenery’s potential defensive impact makes him an intriguing prospect, while Kortright has the offensive ability to make an immediate impact.

6’6” senior Jacob Rigoni and 7’1” sophomore Seth Pinkney will man the starting 4 and 5 spots, respectively. Rigoni is a stretch forward who is a career 41.2% on a whopping 502 three-point attempts – the basket is within his range when he walks into the building. Pinkney is a shot-blocking extraordinaire who posted an insane 12.8% block rate as a freshman, averaging 1.4 BPG in just 11.1 MPG. He’s the heir to Kevin Marfo, and while he won’t bring the same impact on the boards, he’ll provide more rim protection and function as a dangerous PnR lob threat.

JUCO transfer Elias King and redshirt freshman Jamil Riggins will compete for playing time off the pine. King averaged 14.5 PPG and shot 41.9% from deep last season; he’s a skilled big man who can run the floor, score in the post, and shoot the three. Riggins is a burly defensive forward who can play out on the perimeter when required.

Bottom Line: Quinnipiac is destined for another finish in the middle of the MAAC. Baker Dunleavy has a fun-to-watch offensive style, but he’s yet to prove he can put a competent defense onto the court. This would be a top three MAAC team with Kelly and Marfo, but its ceiling is 4th without their services.

9. Fairfield

Key Returners: Jesus Cruz, Taj Benning, Chris Maidoh, Allan Jeanne-Rose, Calvin Whipple
Key Losses: Landon Taliaferro, Vincent Eze, Aidas Kavaliauskas, Kevin Senghore-Peterson, Wassef Methnani
Key Newcomers: Caleb Green (Holy Cross), Tshiefu Ngalakulondi (St. Bonaventure), Supreme Cook, Jalen Leach, Jason Edokpayi, Zach Crisler (Rice)***, Jake Wojcik (Richmond)***

*** Zach Crisler and Jake Wojcik are awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible

Lineup:

Outlook: The Jay Young era kicked off last season in Fairfield, CT following eight so-so years under Sydney Johnson. Young coached at the DII level and spent 15 years assisting Steve Pikiell at Stony Brook and Rutgers prior to taking the Stags by the horns. His squad’s KenPom finish of 301 was the exact same mark Johnson achieved in his final season, but Fairfield was better from a record perspective. Early on the Stags punched way above their weight class, beating Texas A&M on a neutral floor and playing UMass, USC, Davidson, and William & Mary close during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Fairfield was experienced and a tenacious defensive team, but its offense held it back from finishing over .500 in the MAAC for the first time since 2017.

A decent core returns for Young in 2020-21 led by two of his best players from last season, Jesus Cruz and Taj Benning. Cruz is clearly a talented player, but he is wildly inconsistent. Case in point, Fairfield played Manhattan four days apart to close out the 2019-20 season; in the first game Cruz poured in 21 PTS on 8/11 shooting, in the second he managed just 6 PTS on 2/9 shooting. Like most other Stags, Cruz is a poor outside shooter, choosing to do most his offensive damage off the bounce rather than spotting up from deep. He thrives in the pick-n-roll with his unique combination of size and ball handling ability and is an excellent defender on the other end of the floor. Benning is also a bigger guard at 6’4” 202 lbs. and was often the de facto point guard on last year’s squad. Like Cruz, Benning prefers slashing over shooting, ranking 6th in the MAAC in FT rate last season. With Holy Cross transfer Caleb Green finally eligible, Benning can slide off the ball in a more natural wing role in 2020-21.

Green’s presence should be a major boost for a Fairfield offense that was one of the worst in the country last season. The Stags ranked 344th in offensive efficiency and dead last in the MAAC, driven by poor shooting from everywhere on the floor. Scoring came as a result of hitting the offensive glass and getting to the foul line, an ugly style of basketball unfortunately not unknown to a Pikiell disciple. Green will improve ball security (the Stags turned it over a lot) and bring a bit more three-point shooting to the perimeter.  

Junior guard Calvin Whipple returns to the backcourt looking to improve upon a career 31% three-point clip on 113 attempts. Whipple’s form and confidence suggests he is in fact a good outside shooter, he’s just yet to prove it. He’ll need to shoot well to hold off freshman Jalen Leach for playing time – Leach was a big-time scorer in HS and could carve out minutes immediately in a rather thin Fairfield backcourt. Richmond transfer Jake Wojcik would likely see some starts if he’s eligible to play right away. He started every game for the Spiders as a freshman before being relegated to the bench last year and is a career 36.1% from downtown.

Up front look for 6’10” skinny sophomore Chris Maidoh and St. Bonaventure transfer Tshiefu Ngalakulondi to start at the 5 and 4, respectively. Maidoh earned MAAC All-Rookie team honors last season after ranking 2nd in the league in OR%, 7th in DR%, and 7th in block rate. He’ll anchor the Stags on both ends of the floor but still has much progress to make in the realm of offense and weight gain. Ngalakulondi will add spacing to the floor with his ability to knock down an open three – he’ll also chip in with the shot-blocking, defensive, and rebounding efforts this season.

Sophomore forward Allan Jeanne-Rose started 11 games as a freshman and showed his potential to blossom into a solid two-way player down the road. He’ll be one of Fairfield’s key frontcourt subs alongside freshmen Supreme Cook and Jacob Edokpayi and Rice transfer Zach Crisler (if eligible). Cook has an awesome name, but he’s still a bit raw offensively. Edokpayi can contribute immediately with his strength and athleticism. Crisler is a stretch forward who will compete for starts with Ngalakulondi if eligible.

Like most of his mentor’s squads, Jay Young’s Stags were far better on the defensive end of the floor last season than on the offensive. Fairfield ranked 4th in the MAAC in defensive efficiency, rebounded the ball well, forced teams to take tough shots, and were solid in just about every defensive category imaginable. Not much will change on this end with Cruz, Benning, and Maidoh back combined with the athleticism of some of the newbies.

Bottom Line: Fairfield has a chance to finish right in the middle of a competitive MAAC this season, but its ceiling heavily depends on its offense. Defensively, this will be one of the best squads in the conference – unfortunately that can only take you so far. This was by far the worst offensive team in the MAAC last season and even a significant improvement on this end will still place them in the bottom third of the conference’s offensive rankings.

10. Niagara

Key Returners: Marcus Hammond, Raheem Solomon, Greg Kuakumensah, Justin Roberts, Nicolas Kratholm, Shandon Brown, Nick MacDonald, Steven Levnaic
Key Losses: James Towns, Noah Waterman, Damani Thomas
Key Newcomers: Jordan Cintron (Longwood)***, Tah’Jae Hill, Touba Traore, Kobi Nwandu (Redshirt)

*** Jordan Cintron is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible

Lineup:

Outlook: Niagara was one of the most interesting teams in all of college basketball last year. Patrick Beilien (John’s son) was hired to coach the Purple Eagles in March 2019 following the end of the season but resigned just seven months later due to personal reasons. In his place stepped Greg Paulus, famed Syracuse quarterback who also dabbled in basketball at Duke. But the coaching fiasco wasn’t the only weird phenomenon to happen to Niagara in 2020-21. You see, the Eagles were actually pretty solid record-wise in the MAAC, finishing T-7th at 9-11 despite ranking 300th in KenPom. Niagara knocked off each of the top four squads (Siena, Saint Peter’s, Rider, and Monmouth) in the MAAC as well as Iona during the year and finished a robust 8-2 at home in league play compared to a dreadful 1-9 on the road. The cherry on top was Niagara owning the distinct honor of being the smallest team in the country.

Credit Paulus for adapting to his roster’s size and righting the ship fairly quickly after the abrupt coaching change. Niagara ran a 5-out offense that prioritized shooting above all else to compensate for its diminutive size and ranked 5th in the MAAC in adjusted efficiency. Given that the Purple Eagles were the worst rebounding team in college basketball, making outside shots was a must to win ball games, which they did on a near-nightly basis. Niagara ranked 25th in the country in 3P% and shot a ridiculous 40.7% from behind the arc in league play. Paulus instructed his squad to play at a slower tempo and focused on ball screens, isolation, and drive-and-kick to create offensive opportunities for his guard-dominated roster.

Unfortunately, Paulus couldn’t replicate his offensive success on the defensive end. The Eagles were the MAAC’s worst defensive team in 2020-21 and ranked 325th nationally in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. Rebounding absolutely killed the Eagles – opposing teams destroyed Niagara on the glass and bullied them in the paint. Though the Eagles seemed to try to compensate for this weakness with perimeter pressure (albeit oftentimes through zone), opposing teams still found ample open shot chances from behind the three-point line, a deadly combination with Niagara’s futility on the boards.

Nearly everyone returns from last year’s squad, which means we can likely expect Niagara to have another quite potent offense paired with a porous defense. Of course, there are variables to consider for this hypothesis – on one hand, Niagara’s insane three-point shooting might regress, on the other, defense may improve with an older squad and a more stabilized team environment.

Niagara has more frontcourt depth than last season with the addition of freshman Touba Traore and transfers Jordan Cintron and Kobi Nwandu. Returning seniors Nicholas Kratholm and Greg Kuakumensah will have the inside track to starting at the honorary 5-spot in Paulus’s guard-centric lineup, but all three newcomers should have chances to crack the rotation. Kratholm, a former Duquesne Duke, started 20 games last season thanks in large part to him being the biggest body on the roster. He can take up space in the paint and provide some semblance of shot-blocking, though his rebounding and finishing ability leave much to be desired. Kuakumensah is an undersized forward who improved greatly last season – he has some offensive talent and is a better floor spacing option than Kratholm in the frontcourt. Cintron, a Longwood transfer, will need a waiver to compete immediately. He started all but two games for the Lancers in 2019-20 and would instantly become Niagara’s best rebounder if able to play. Last year, Cintron ranked 2nd in the Big South in FT rate and his length will be useful in the middle of the Purple Eagles’ defense. Traore is the tallest player on the roster, a skinny 6’11” shot blocker extraordinaire who once swatted 15 shots in high school (though competition was highly suspect). He is extremely long, barely needing to jump to dunk the ball, and is skilled enough offensively to face-up and hit a mid-to-long range jumper. Nwandu is a DII transfer who followed Beilein over from Le Moyne – he brings needed size and athleticism to the fold.

The backcourt brigade will be led by the superlative Marcus Hammond, a 1st Team All-MAAC selection last season who took full advantage of the famous sophomore leap. Hammond led the country in 3P% as a freshman and shot 46.6% from deep in MAAC play last year – his range is extensive, and his release is extremely swift. With James Towns’s graduation, Hammond may be asked to handle the ball more in 2020-21, though he is definitely better served attacking off the ball from the wing. Raheem Solomon started every single game last season aside Hammond; he’s a 6’2” junior guard who’s a career 36.2% from downtown. Solomon is a solid offensive player who will look to improve his efficiency in 2020-21. Justin Roberts, a Toledo Rocket transfer, ranked 2nd in the MAAC with a 46.8% three-point clip (yes, this team was ridiculous from behind the arc) last year; his stroke is absolutely money and he too can assist in ball handling duties in Towns’s absence.

If Paulus opts to go very small (as he did so often in 2019-20), 5’9” junior guard Shandon Brown could start at the point alongside the aforementioned backcourt trio. Brown began his career at George Washington and is your stereotypical non-scoring, table-setting lead guard. 6’5” wing Nick MacDonald could be a great option to start at the 4 with his size and range. As a freshman, MacDonald knocked down 37.1% of his 89 3PA and was a perfect 22/22 from the free throw line. Steven Levnaic, one of Niagara’s better on-ball defenders last season, ranked 3rd in the MAAC in steal rate and was the only Purple Eagle to be described as an “excellent” defender on a PPP basis by Synergy. He’ll serve a rotational role off the pine. Finally, freshman guard Tah’Jae Hill, a well-regarded HS recruit with several DI offers, should fit Niagara’s style of play to a tee with his strength, quickness, and ability to shoot the three.

Bottom Line: Niagara should improve from a national ranking and power rating perspective, but don’t expect the Eagles to necessarily finish better than their 9-11 MAAC mark in 2019-20. Poor defense is difficult to overcome for any school at any level and there’s little reason to expect Niagara to improve by leaps and bounds on this end this season. The Purple Eagles should still be a tough squad to face on any given night and will be capable of throwing a few knockout punches with their shooting ability. We’ll also see if that home/away dichotomy continues in a COVID fan-limited/restricted environment.  

Tier 4

11. Marist

Key Returners: Michael Cubbage, Jordan Jones, Braden Bell, Tyler Saint-Furcy, Matt Herasme, Zion Tordoff, Henry Makeny
Key Losses: Tyler Sagl, Matt Turner, Jack Cavanaugh, Tobias Sjoberg
Key Newcomers: Victor Enoh (Memphis), Raheim Sullivan (JUCO), Hakim Byrd, Ricardo Wright, Javon Cooley

Lineup:

Outlook: Marist was the worst team in the MAAC last season, which wasn’t too much of a surprise given extreme player turnover and the lack of experience across the roster. Still, John Dunne, as he always does, had his team punching above its weight class, pulling off six wins in the MAAC including a victory over his former school, Saint Peter’s. The loss of All-Rookie Team member Tyler Sagl hurts, but the Red Foxes have several key players returning from last season, which might be enough to finish above dead last in the league.

John Dunne’s offenses typically spread the floor in a 4-out / 1-in fashion. Marist has a bevy of shooters to make this offense work, but last season was a disaster. The Red Foxes shot well from deep, ranking 2nd in the MAAC in 3P% on the 3rd highest attempt rate, but they could not score inside the arc. Marist ranked 350th nationally in 2PFG%, which contributed to the Red Foxes having the 343rd best overall offense in the country. Poor shot selection, a.k.a. mid-range jumpers and contested shots, was also a big part of the offensive problem at large, as were turnovers and a lack of interest in the offensive glass. Offense may still be an issue in 2020-21 with Michael Cubbage being the only real playmaker on the squad – if he’s inefficient again, Marist will struggle.

Cubbage is a talented player, a big point guard who led the Red Foxes in scoring, rebounding, and assists last season. However, Cubbage also has a tendency to take terrible shots. In 2019-20, Cubbage shot just 36.4% from two and 20.8% from three – you simply cannot win many games when your best player is throwing up those percentages. With his size, Cubbage can really get to the cup with ease, he just needs to learn when to reel it in and make better decisions his senior season.

Lining up in the backcourt with Cubbage will be a couple of shooters in Tyler Saint-Furcy and Matt Herasme. Saint-Furcy had a promising freshman year in which he showed potential as a legit 3-and-D, ranking 8th in the league in steal rate and 9th in 3P%. His biggest improvement point will be ball security, as the young guard was turnover prone in his first collegiate season. Herasme ranked second on the squad in rebounding and ranked 6th in the MAAC in 3P% - like Saint-Furcy, Herasme racks up a fair amount of steals defensively and provides plenty of floor spacing for Cubbage on offense.

JUCO transfer Raheim Sullivan should play a key role this year in the backcourt with his ability to handle the rock and score. He’s quick off the dribble and should fit the Marist system well. Likewise, freshman PG Hakim Byrd looks like a promising future talent in Poughkeepsie, a lightning quick lead guard with a good-looking jumper. Fellow freshmen Ricardo Wright and Javon Cooley will also fight for playing time in their rookie years – Wright is an athletic scoring 2-guard while Cooley is a lefty versatile wing out of Chicago.

The “1” in Dunne’s 4-out / 1-in attack will oftentimes be senior center Jordan Jones, a burly, long big man with solid post skills. Jones serves as an anchor in the paint on both ends of the floor, a guy who can clean the glass, block shots, and give his team competent post scoring on the block. When on the court last season, Jones was the 4th highest used player in the conference – look for him to be a reliable frontcourt contributor once again this season.

Braden Bell likely steps into the starting lineup full-time this year after starting four contests in 2019-20. Bell can stretch the floor for the Red Foxes, knocking down 38.1% of his three-point tries last year. A Ranger College alum, Bell is a solid MAAC forward and one who fits into the Dunne spread offense like a glove. Zion Tordoff, a good rebounder, Henry Makeny, an Australian forward, and Victor Enoh, a Memphis transfer, round out the Marist frontcourt rotation. Enoh is the one to watch of this group; he played nearly every game for the Tigers as a freshman before barely seeing the floor as a sophomore and sitting out last season with the Red Foxes. Though not a skilled offensive player, Enoh brings strength, size, and rebounding to the fold.

Dunne’s defenses are almost always better than his offenses, and that was the case with last year’s Marist squad as well. The Red Foxes had the 5th best defense in the league last season, forcing turnovers at a high rate and controlling the glass effectively. Dunne’s teams always rebound the ball well and focus on shutting down the interior – his guards dig on drivers and posters, disallowing penetration and easy chances near the rim. Marist was one of the best pick-n-roll and post-up defenses in the country last season on a PPP basis. The Red Foxes should be tough on this end again in 2020-21 – Cubbage and Saint-Furcy form a long, intimidating perimeter shell while the likes of Jones, Bell, and Enoh should be plenty to hold off opponents on the interior.

Bottom Line: Marist likely improves slightly from last season, but this is still a bottom tier MAAC team. Dunne is going to pull of some wins in games in which he has no business competing, but ultimately his Red Foxes don’t have the offensive firepower to vault into the upper half of the league standings in 2020-21.