-Jim Root

Key Returners: Skylar Mays, Javonte Smart, Emmitt Williams, Marlon Taylor, Darius Days
Key Losses: Tremont Waters (pro), Naz Reid (pro), Kavell Bigby-Williams
Key Newcomers: Trendon Watford, Charles Manning (JUCO), James Bishop, Aundre Hyatt (redshirt), Courtese Cooper (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: The surreal saga of Will Wade refusing to meet with his administration in March left us baffled, but Mr. Wade is back on the sidelines for 2019-20, with seemingly zero repercussions from the whole ordeal (pending the NCAA’s threat of punishment). That led to a giant question mark of an offseason in which six (6) LSU underclassmen declared for the draft and the Tigers had little-to-nothing coming in via the recruiting trail. Thankfully, four of the prospective pros reversed their declarations, another elite forward recruit chose to come to the Bayou, and Wade got himself reinstated to his head coaching post, breeding renewed optimism for the coming year.  

On the court, LSU actually has a decent chance to recreate some of last season’s success. The losses of Tremont Waters and Naz Reid to the NBA Draft will hurt (along with Kavell Bigby-Williams’s shot-blocking), as they were the team’s two highest-usage players and the catalysts on both ends of the court, but the returning roster holds promise inside and out. Wade has proven through his six-year head coaching career that he can acquire and maximize talent, and as long as he’s on the sideline, the Tigers should not drop off much at all.

Like last year, the Tigers’ calling card offensively should be a total onslaught on the offensive glass. Reid and Bigby-Williams were strong presences themselves, but Emmitt Williams and Darius Days run on Energizer batteries, tirelessly throwing their bodies around and generating second chance opportunities despite each checking in at only 6’6, 225 pounds. Add in 5-star freshman big man Trendon Watford, and LSU once again has a ferocious (albeit smaller and more versatile) front line with which it can wear down opponents and consistently dominate the offensive boards.

Watford’s presence will be crucial defensively, because that’s where Days’ and Williams’ lack of size shows up. Neither sophomore is an intimidating presence at the rim in the way Bigby-Williams was (21st nationally in block rate), but Watford brings a 7’4” wingspan that should give opposing finishers pause. He’s not a pure/natural shot-blocker, but that size will be key for a team that is otherwise slightly undersized. The only alternative is Courtese Cooper, a junior college transfer who blocked 107 shots for the JUCO Division 2 national champs in 2017-18 but redshirted last year due to the Tigers’ embarrassment of riches inside. The entire group will need to rebound as a collective, because this group of guards does not hit the glass, instead preferring to leak out in transition (LSU ranked 272nd nationally in D-Reb rate last year, per KenPom).

Without Waters, meanwhile, roles will be heavily recast on the perimeter. Wade likely turns to a combination of both Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays to replace Waters’ shot creation, because while both can do some play-making, neither is a pure point guard the way Waters was. Wade prefers a pro-style spread offense centered around a pick-and-roll, but smart opponents will muddy that action up due to the Tigers’ lack of shooting. Smart and Mays can knock shots down if left open, but they’re both streaky, and each hovered at 31% from deep last year. Charles Manning, a JUCO import, will need to bolster the wing shooting (38% from deep at Florida SouthWestern State), or the Tigers’ collection of paint threats will be limited by a total lack of spacing.

The loss of Waters will hurt the perimeter defense, as well. He was a constant on-ball pest last year, racking up a steal rate of 5.1% (4th in the entire country) and setting the tone for the Tigers through his persistent intensity. The defense really struggled without him last year, as Smart and Mays (and Marlon Taylor) just couldn’t stay in front of quicker guards on a consistent basis:

Freshman James Bishop may be called upon for some spot duty for this reason: he’s a quicker, more compact guard who should realize that dogged defense will be his quickest path to early minutes.

Wade, like Shaka Smart, Brad Underwood, even Bob Huggins last year, has discovered that building a quality defense in a Power 6 league based almost exclusively around forcing turnovers is exceedingly difficult unless the personnel marries perfectly with that scheme. Opposing guards are simply too smart and skilled and the teams are (by and large) too well-coached to consistently cough the ball up throughout a conference season, so Wade needs to focus on the other aspects – hammer the glass, contest every shot – to boost the D up from where it’s been the last two years (136th and 59th nationally, per KenPom).  

Bottom Line: Despite all of the noise around Will Wade and LSU hoops plus the departure of the Tigers’ two best players, the outlook is actually quite promising for the upcoming season (again: shred this paragraph if the NCAA takes a flamethrower to the program). Smart and Mays should complement each other nicely, giving Wade multiple options to facilitate, and LSU should continue to thrash most opponents in the paint. The NCAA Tournament seems likely (lock them up, says Matty Cox and his #14 ranking), and hopefully we’ll get a chance to see Wade lead his talented team through March, rather than Tony Benford and his hideously-timed technical fouls.