Ky's Bracketology 2.6.2020
- Ky McKeon
I’m a bit tardy this year on the first iteration of my bracketology, but quite frankly this season has been so crazy that I wouldn’t know what to do with half these teams up until this point. Even on February 6th I’m finding it nearly impossible to seed teams 37-73, but alas that is the great challenge every bracketologist must face.
If you’ve noticed, this site has two bracketologists. In fact, this site has TWO OF THE 50 BEST BRACKETOLOGISTS IN THE UNIVERSE, per BracketMatrix.com. So that means whatever teams you see below are definitely the be-all end-all (as of February 6, 2020).
Bracket
Bubble
Inklings
There are three asterisks next to Indiana and Xavier. Because the Big Ten has so many teams in the Field of 68, seeding them is quite the undertaking. When the committee faces a bracketing rule that cannot be broken (i.e. two teams from the same conference cannot play each other in the First Round), teams can be re-seeded up or down a line. Such is the case with Indiana and Xavier. Apologies to Hoosier fans, you are punished because your conference is good.
Speaking of the Big Ten, I currently have a whopping 12 teams in the Tournament currently. That would set the record for most bids from a single conference (the Big East had 11 one year) and highest percentage of teams from a single conference (the Big 12 and Big East have each sent seven of their 10 teams in prior years). The records of Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, etc. aren’t pretty, but you can’t argue with the quantity of quality wins they’ve produced. A pecking order will start to arise as we progress through February, but for now all 12 teams are deserving of making the Dance.
Sorry to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane currently lead the American but I’ll bet dollars to donuts they will not be there at the end of the year. It makes this job a lot harder if Frank Haith’s squad steals an auto-bid from a more deserving squad. And for those wondering, no Tulsa does not have a case for an at-large with zero Q1 wins and a non-conference SOS of 289.
Why Georgetown and Memphis over Virginia and VCU? Because it’s proof I can be unbiased in this selection process (I like the latter teams far more than the former). These teams are incredibly close from a resume perspective:
So, Georgetown gets in due to those quality wins. Four Q1 wins is by far the most of the group. The Hoyas also have the best NCSOS by a significant margin and no bad losses. Memphis lacks in Q1 wins but a NET of 46, a gaudy 17-5 record, and two more quality wins than VCU puts them slightly ahead of the Rams. Virginia will eventually get into the Field but for now the Hoos are on the outside looking in. Their NET and NCSOS are too low and they have two bad losses. VCU gets the cut due to its lack of quality wins, despite a NET of 35.
I wish we could see this caliber of 12 - 16 seeds in any given year. Unfortunately, conference tournament upsets will rob us of a 16-seed Little Rock.
Keep an eye on the Missouri Valley. If Northern Iowa continues its dominant conference run but falters in the postseason, the Panthers may have enough snuff to cash in on an at-large bid, spelling bad news for all those Power 6 bubble squads out there.
There’s plenty of good matchups in the bracket, but a couple are worth noting:
If San Diego State and Wichita State meet in the 2nd Round, that spread is probably in the PK - 2 range. Pretty insane for a 1 v. 9 game.
Yale is 100% beating LSU
Indiana and Kentucky rivalry is renewed!