-Matt Cox

Key Returners: Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, David McCormack, Christian Braun, Silvio de Sousa
Tristan Enaruna, Jalen Wilson, Mitch Lightfoot
Key Losses: Devon Dotson, Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Moss
Key Newcomers: Bryce Thompson, Tyon Grant-Foster (JUCO), DaJuan Harris 

Lineup:

Outlook: Dayton. Baylor. San Diego State. Clouds of ‘What Ifs’ will haunt these programs forever. They each fielded once-in-a-generation teams as the 2019-20 season raced into the final turn, all worthy of sitting atop the NCAA Tournament’s throne.

Pity aside, let’s not lose sight of who the prohibitive favorite was on the eve of the Big Dance.

Rock. Chalk. Jay. Hawk.

Before COVID wiped out March Madness, Kansas had asserted itself as the crème de la crem heading into Selection Sunday. No two players on any team in America could stand toe-to-toe with the Jayhawks’ Thunder (Udoka Azubuike) and Lightning (Devon Dotson) twofer, nevermind the talent-rich remnants sprinkled throughout the rest of the roster. The supporting cast is ready to take center stage in 2021 but replacing that two-headed monster won’t be easy.

Doke was the linchpin of the Jayhawks’ steel curtain defense, an intimidating 7’0 270-pound enforcer in the lane, while the jet-quick Dotson routinely smothered opposing ball handlers on the perimeter. Per KenPom, only Virginia’s preprogrammed defensive machine outclassed the Jayhawks’ defense last year on an adjusted efficiency basis. 

Self can at least take solace in knowing one of the nation’s premier defensive stoppers, Marcus Garrett, is back in action. Many scouts are salivating at Garrett’s shutdown potential long-term, as he quickly earned a national reputation as a tenacious defender with superglue hands. Whatever he adds to the scoring column is gravy, but he’s quietly finding a niche as an unpredictable driver and cerebral cutter.

To replace Doke’s muscle up front, the infamous ‘bash brothers’, Silvio de Sousa and David McCormack, will be promoted to primary paint bodyguards, along with the forgotten Mitch Lightfoot, who willingly redshirted last season to preserve eligibility for more playing time. If last year’s lineup DNA is any indication of Self’s 2021 playbook, it’s unlikely we see these three bigs deployed in tandem simultaneously. Self is broadening his horizons, slowly drifting away from the full-time twin tower lineup he patented many moons ago.

Self’s already tipped his hand that he plans to utilize more perimeter-oriented lineups again this year, while still utilizing two-big lineups as needed: 

“I see us playing four-around-one a lot, most of the time,” said Self on a recent episode of Hawk Talk.  “We were much better playing four guards, but we’re going to have to play two bigs some. It’ll be better playing two bigs next year because of Mitch and Mitch can move around — and he’s really improved his stroke — and do some things. And David [McCormack] is much more skilled moving away from the basket. He and Silvio [De Sousa] could play together some because that could be a true in and out, and we could play small and play Mitch at the five.”

This four-guard lineup likely features McCormack, de Sousa and Lightfoot in a timeshare at the 5, combined with Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun or JUCO stalwart Tyon Grant-Foster at the 4. 

With Dotson and Doke defecting, all signs point to Agbaji stepping into the offensive cockpit this year. Agbaji became a household name midway through the 2019 campaign, when injuries forced Self to remove his redshirt tag a year ahead of schedule. As a freshman, he was a key catalyst in jump-starting a stalled offense, which created monstrous expectations for his encore last season. Yet, Agbaji endured a mini sophomore slump, as his shooting percentages and overall efficiency dipped below his rookie season standards. He still fulfilled his duties as a complementary scorer, but one has to wonder where he falls in the pecking order of this year’s rotation. He no longer has the element of surprise on his side, nor can he hide in Dotson and Doke’s shadow – he’ll now be the marked man on the scouting report.

Braun, a rising sophomore, finds himself in the same boat as Agbaji this time a year ago. Braun’s riding high off a strong freshman season, convincing many KU fans he’s ready for launch in 2021. He’s a bouncy swingman with a seasoned stroke and developing handle, a skillset akin to a young Svi Mykhailiuk in training.

While Braun continues to add pieces to his offensive repertoire, he can’t lose that simple, yet critical, element of his game: shooting. The Jayhawks are flushed with versatile scorers and creators, but they need an elite catch-and-shoot specialist to keep the floor spaced and make defenses pay for over helping. This is where Braun, the Big-12’s top 3-point marksman last season (50%), should shine.

What’s less certain is how the aforementioned Grant-Foster, as well as freshman blue-chipper Bryce Thompson, fit into the equation. Grant-Foster took the back roads to one of the nation’s blue blood programs, but his unbounded versatility should put him at the forefront of everything KU does offensively this year:

That video encapsulates his next-level feel for the game. He’ll be a malleable tool on offense, be it a primary initiator at the point or a downhill slasher on the wing. At 6’7 with a 7-foot wingspan, no role or position on either side of the floor is off limits for this jack-of-all-trades.

Relative to Grant-Foster, Thompson skews more toward a lead combo guard, which mirrors the exact prototype Self loves in his backcourt (Devonte Graham, Frank Mason, Wayne Selden etc.). Last fall, Self talked about Thompson in this position-less, combo guard context in an article with KU’s Rivals.com affiliate, JayhawkSlant.com:

“We’ve recruited Bryce for probably three or four years and certainly knew he was always going to be a target, but his development has really taken off the last couple years,” Self said. “He’s grown to 6-foot-5. He’s a lead guard and scoring guard. We’ve had some of our best success with these type of combo guards. He’s going to bring energy to our program and he’s going to bring talent. We anticipate him being an impact player for us.”

That leaves DaJuan Harris, Tristan Enaruna and Jalen Wilson. Per CJ Moore of the Athletic, the coaching staff has been raving about Harris, a traditional run-your-team type point guard, behind the scenes. After sitting in the redshirt bullpen as an understudy to Dotson, Harris could emerge as a reliable game manager in the backcourt. On the other hand, Enaruna and Wilson appear to be stuck in no-man’s-land heading into the season. Enaruna showed a ton of promise early but forfeited his minutes to Braun and others as the year progressed. Wilson carries strong pedigree, a former top-50 recruit, but a broken ankle ruined his entire rookie campaign. It’s a logjam for minutes across the board, so Enaruna and Wilson have their work cut out for them to regain a featured spot in the rotation.

Bottom Line: This won’t be the juggernaut we saw last year, but Kansas should still be the hunted in the brutal Big-12. Depth and optionality are two key ingredients working in the Jayhawks’ favor and the talent is still on par with traditional Self standards. I’ll concede shooting and offensive role definitions are major questions marks, but I refuse to overthink this one – this is a top-5 team and surefire national title contender.