-Jim Root

Key Returners: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Al Durham, Rob Phinisee, Joey Brunk, Armaan Franklin, Jerome Hunter
Key Losses: Devonte Green, De’Ron Davis, Justin Smith (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Khristian Lander, Anthony Leal, Jordan Geronimo, Trey Galloway

Lineup:

Outlook: Indiana played with fire a bit last year, dipping dangerously towards the bubble after finishing 9-11 in the Big Ten and playing a relatively meager non-conference slate (zero road games). Ruthlessly destroying Nebraska and under-the-weather Fred Hoiberg to avoid a disastrous loss in the Big Ten Tournament likely pushed the Hoosiers safely into the NCAA field, though, and returning a bevy of key pieces from that roster while adding a strong recruiting class has IU fans hungry for more in Archie Miller’s fourth season at the helm.

The good vibes began with the return of Trayce Jackson-Davis, who didn’t even test the NBA Draft waters and should be the Hoosiers’ cornerstone on both ends of the floor. The sizable southpaw is a stout defender, ranking 7th in the Big Ten in block rate and displaying decent mobility for a guy of his size. Offensively, he got most of his points via intelligent cuts, tireless offensive rebounding, and a burgeoning post up game - almost always to his stronger left hand:

All offseason hype machine tidbits should be taken with a grain of salt (consider the sources), but reports out of Hoosier-ville are that TJD is becoming more comfortable finishing with his right hand and putting the ball on the floor from the perimeter. Opposing big men started sweating at the mere thought of those additions to his game.

He pairs nicely with forward Race Thompson to give IU an extremely active and athletic frontline; both guys dominate the offensive boards while being fluid enough on the other end to guard smaller players for stretches. Archie plays exclusively man-to-man (quite literally zero zone possessions last year, per Synergy) and uses some pack line principles, and cleaning the defensive glass became a huge part of IU’s defensive success last year, so the TJD + Thompson combination makes a lot of sense.

The burning question is how often TJD will play as the nominal power forward alongside fellow big man Joey Brunk, a major presence in his own right, but one that is more ground-bound on defense and similarly jumper-deficient on offense. Playing them together turns the offensive end of the court into a closet, cramping the spacing on post ups and squeezing driving lanes for the guards. Brunk’s playing time dwindled noticeably towards the end of the year (14 or fewer minutes in seven of the final nine contests), and though he is likely to start thanks to his contributions as a post scorer and energy big, IU’s peak outcomes probably involve more of Thompson and TJD together:

Note: the Thompson + Brunk defensive numbers are incredible, but they’re skewed by opponents’ ice cold shooting in a small sample.

When Archie wants to juice the offense, he can play Jerome Hunter or freshman Jordan Geronimo as a smallball four, opening up the court and giving more of a four-out look. Both Hunter and Geronimo are perimeter shooting threats, and with Justin Smith’s decision to transfer, Archie almost has to play more versatile lineups by necessity. Hey, sometimes the only choice is still the right choice! Too often, the offense got stuck in the mud last year, and getting more shooting on the court cannot be a bad thing. Devonte Green was the only player that made more than 36 triples, but even losing him to graduation could be a blessing. He was painfully inefficient at times, and his sky high usage rate (thanks to a laughably loose shot selection) often took the ball out of the hands of more judicious scorers and creators.   

Without a pro prospect like Romeo Langford, the offense saw a major shift in approach last year, going from a ball screen-heavy attack to more of a motion with the guards using off-ball screens around frequent post ups for TJD and Brunk. The Synergy numbers illustrate the change:

The departed Green was the team’s most productive player in these scenarios, but Al Durham was decent too, and Rob Phinisee and Armaan Franklin acquitted themselves well in limited opportunities. All three struggled mightily as ball-handlers in the pick-and-roll, so credit to Archie for putting his guys in better positions to score:

If PnRs are to see a resurgence in the IU offense, it will likely be with incoming five-star freshman Khristian Lander, an in-state stud from Evansville, IN, taking the reins. The savvy lefty is a consummate point guard, picking his spots to score while largely focusing on getting his teammates involved. He also allows Miller the luxury of playing more three-guard lineups this year, giving the Hoosiers four players of starter quality in the backcourt. He reclassed from 2021, though, so he may take some time to catch up with the speed and physicality of the game. Fellow reclass PGs like Derryck Thornton and Ashton Hagans didn’t immediately dominate despite touted pedigrees, so expecting him to single-handedly alter IU’s season is probably too much.

Green was also arguably the team’s worst backcourt defender, and the defense looked particularly great when Durham and Franklin manned the backcourt together (0.84 PPP on a decent sample size, per Hoop Lens). The team feeds off Durham’s energy and swagger, especially at home, and Phinisee can also be a gritty ballhawk.

The rest of IU’s backcourt depth will come from two freshmen who competed for Indiana’s Mr. Basketball award, were ranked very similarly by 247 Sports’ consensus (137th and 138th), played AAU together, and are apparently great friends already, per my IU alum colleague. Anthony Leal won the state’s top honor over his pal Trey Galloway, and they’ll probably be fighting each other once again, this time for minutes. Neither is an exceptional athlete, but they’re both big guards who can get to the rim with shiftiness and strength. Both can knock down open threes if presented, so the defensive end may decide which one sees more court time.

Bottom Line: In a pivotal fourth year for Archie Miller, he has a roster that sets up well for success: a star big man in a league that champions them, lineup optionality, and a potentially difference-making freshman point guard. Hoosier fans will be watching closely to see how he deploys that roster, and the chirping may start early if IU sputters out of the gate. Archie has won consistently in the state of Indiana, both on the court and the recruiting trail, but he needs to find more consistent success when his team hits the road. This should unquestionably be a tournament team, and a Sweet 16 berth is a realistically optimistic goal if the offense improves.