-Jim Root

Key Returners: Marcus Sasser, Fabian White, Tramon Mark, Reggie Chaney, J’Wan Roberts
Key Losses: Quentin Grimes (NBA), DeJon Jarreau, Justin Gorham, Brison Gresham
Key Newcomers: Kyler Edwards (Texas Tech), Taze Moore (Cal St. Bakersfield), Josh Carlton (UConn), Ja’Vier Francis, Ramon Walker, Robbie Armbrester

Lineup:

Outlook: Unless you’re a truly transcendent team like 2021 Baylor (sorry to mention that, Houston fans) or 2018 Villanova, every postseason run comes with a couple close shaves (sponsor: Manscaped). Houston was on the sour end of it in 2018, when Michigan’s Jordan Poole buried an improbable buzzer beater to thwart the Cougars’ upset bid; Michigan then made the title game. Fortunately, fortunes turned this year, as Houston clawed back from a nine-point deficit with five minutes remaining against Rutgers in Round Two. The Cougars ended up in the Final Four for the first time since 1984, fully announcing the program’s elevation to elite status under Kelvin Sampson.

What Sampson has done at Houston is nothing short of wizardry. In addition to the outrageous on-court success (he’s 111-24 over the last four years, 57-14 in league play), he’s also reinvigorated interest in the program, helping to get a massive influx of money ($85M in facility upgrades, $60M arena renovation, etc.). Most importantly, though, he has instilled a true identity to the team, one that is easily identifiable to its fans: a culture of hyper-competitiveness, maximum effort, and intense physicality.

That starts on defense, where the Cougars embody the “no easy buckets” philosophy, challenging absolutely everything, both inside and out. Sampson’s man-to-man defenses swarm the paint against drives and post ups and subsequently rotate with precision and fervor, and his propensity to recruit length means that even seemingly-open jumpers have hands flying at them:

Thanks to the almost maniacal discipline to contest shots and the roster’s natural physical talent, Houston has ranked in the top six nationally in effective field goal percentage defense for four consecutive seasons. The one downside is the incessant fouling: the Cougars’ aggression leads to tons of free throws for the opponent, so poised teams with plenty of shooters have a consistent route to points.

Despite that flaw, Houston should remain elite on this end, even without American Defensive Player of the Year DeJon Jarreau. The rotation is once again loaded with lanky wings and mobile bigs, and Sampson may have even found Jarreau Lite in Cal St. Bakersfield transfer Taze Moore, a similarly-built guard whose stature and statistical profile are highly reminiscent of Jarreau’s (albeit against Big West competition):

Moore is a terrific piece, but he may not even start, and the Cougars’ defense is really built from the inside out. To that end, returning Reggie Chaney and Fabian White form a concrete foundation, as both fit the Sampson blueprint perfectly: capable of defending in space and closing out to shooters while also being legitimate rim protectors. J’Wan Roberts is poised for a breakout campaign with more minutes available after being a dominant force on the glass last year, which means UConn transfer Josh Carlton can fill a more specialized role. Carlton is more lumbering than most Houston bigs, but he’s reminiscent of Chris Harris, who was a key contributor to the 2019-20 Cougars. Plus, if Sampson opts for a more mobile fourth big, freshman Ja’Vier Francis has “the next Fabian White” written all over him.

That big man rotation is also significant to Houston’s offensive approach, where offensive rebounding has become an absolutely vital path to points. I don’t have a stat for “most made threes directly off rebound kick-outs,” but I have to assume Houston would rank highly in that category. What I can tell you, though, is that the Cougars have ranked 2nd nationally in offensive rebound rate for two straight years, and with Chaney, White, Roberts, and Carlton, Sampson has four proven board crashers with which to continue that assault.

Typically, a large quantity of available rebounds exists in Cougar games, as Houston is not always an elite shooting bunch. Last year’s Final Four team ranked just 154th in eFG%, which was actually a sizable improvement from 249th the year before. Sampson prefers long possessions to help limit transition opportunities for the opponent, and that leads to a high share of tough shots – fortunately, he has several tough shot makers suiting up in the backcourt.

Most notably, Marcus Sasser blossomed into a complementary star last year alongside Quentin Grimes, hoisting 233 triples while rarely turning the ball over. Though not the primary ball-handler (that was Jarreau), Sasser also torched defenses out of the pick-and-roll, ranking in the 96th percentile on such possessions per Synergy. He was most deadly when simply pulling up and burying a jumper, but he also showed an excellent floater game that should continue to serve him well this year:

Plus, even when those shots don’t go in, they draw big man help and bounce softly off the rim, creating terrific putback opportunities:

Sasser is far from the only perimeter weapon. Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards adds a proven high-level scorer who can hit tough shots while playing within a disciplined defensive system; he tallied 12 points in the 2019 national championship game as a freshman and has only improved from there. Sophomore Tramon Mark might be the next NBA wing Sampson produces, and if he can find his perimeter stroke (just 24.3% from deep last year), he’ll be a legitimate three-level scorer. Moore is a veteran slasher and ball-handler, and sophomore Jamal Shead flashed potential in limited minutes last year – though like Mark, he needs to find his jumper. The established depth likely makes it tough for incoming recruits Ramon Walker and Robbie Armbrester to get on the court, but they have the talent to do so and clearly possess bright futures in the program.

The X factor offensively will be White, the fifth-year senior who saw limited minutes down the stretch last year after returning from a torn ACL suffered last offseason. Houston’s offense is one of the most guard-heavy in the country, but White is a legitimate scoring threat in the mid-post; he also showed glimpses of adding a three-pointer to his arsenal upon returning. If he becomes a true threat in the frontcourt, the offensive ceiling rises considerably for a team that typically only looks for garbage man-esque production from its bigs.

Bottom Line: Even without Grimes and Jarreau, expect more of the same from Houston this year. Perhaps the ceiling lowers a bit without Grimes’ shot-making and Jarreau’s individual play-making and blanket defense, but the floor remains rock solid thanks to the bedrock that is the Cougars’ defensive identity. Kelvin Sampson has continuously brought in talent via both the transfer portal and the recruiting trail, giving him the pieces to remain a national presence, and Houston has earned the benefit of the doubt in the American - even while facing a talent-rich Memphis squad.