-Jim Root

Key Returners: Tyree Appleby, Colin Castleton, Anthony Duruji, Keyontae Johnson (maybe? Cardiac event)
Key Losses: Tre Mann (pro), Noah Locke (transfer), Scottie Lewis (pro), Omar Payne (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Myreon Jones (Penn St.), Kowacie Reeves, CJ Felder (Boston College), Brandon McKissic (Kansas City), Phlandrous Fleming (Charleston Southern)

Lineup:

Note: Florida added JUCO foreard Tuon Gatkek after this article published.

Outlook: In a post-Billy Donovan world, we’re starting to know what to expect from Florida: relatively stress-free NCAA Tournament appearance, mid-level seed (four straight years between 6 and 10), one-and-done in Big Dance (three straight Round of 32 losses). It’s not a terrible way to live – ask a lot of other fanbases if they would take that as an annual tradition and see what they say – but the Gators have higher hopes, especially given the talent that has flocked to Gainesville in recent years. Credit for that talent acquisition goes to Coach Mike White, a young and charismatic boss, but for whatever reason, his teams do not quite feel like they hit their ceilings.

Of course, no discussion of the 2020-21 Florida Gators’ season can occur without mentioning Keyontae Johnson. Evaluating their (and White’s) performance will always be tinged with a hue of unfairness, as the preseason SEC Player of the Year collapsed due to a heart issue during the team’s fourth game of the season. Without his immense talent and versatility on both ends of the court, the Gators had to re-shuffle the rotation on the fly, and one could argue White actually did quite well given the circumstances. Johnson is hopeful for (and working towards) a return to the court this year, but that must be viewed as a bonus, not an expectation.

Johnson aside, White’s decision to push tempo more offensively was a boon to the Gators’ scoring, providing the easy buckets that a half court offense lacking its best weapon desperately needed:

A huge part of that success came as a result of Colin Castleton’s rim running. The Michigan transfer, used sparingly in Ann Arbor, surprisingly became a featured part of the Gator offense, blossoming as an interior scoring threat, an offensive rebounder, and a high effort big that sprinted for easy buckets. Look at where he starts after Florida secures the ball - behind all five West Virginia Mountaineers:

And watch him bolt to the rim, outpacing the leisurely-paced opposing bigs (no one show this to Bob Huggins, or he might give Derek Culver a stern call):

Fellow transfers Tyree Appleby and Anthony Duruji became equally important, as Appleby’s speed helped press the Gators’ open court advantage and Duruji’s versatility filled in for the missing Johnson.

Issues will likely present themselves once games slow into the half court, especially without Tre Mann’s pick-and-roll mastery and ability to make difficult shots (remember this dagger?). A much larger creation burden falls to Appleby, who was not the scorer Mann was out of the PnR (60th percentile, compared to Mann’s 88th) nor the passer (56th percentile vs. 87th percentile).

Fortunately, White was extremely active in the player acquisition market, reeling in multiple perimeter pieces that can contribute as both scorers and secondary initiators. Chief among those is Myreon Jones, arguably the best player on a top 40 KenPom team from the Big Ten last year. He’s a proven sniper from deep (though the release is a tad unorthodox), and he’s been an efficient creator when called upon, as well.

Mid-major transfers Brandon McKissic and the wonderfully-named Phlandrous Fleming add further juice in this regard; both shouldered massive offensive loads for teams largely bereft of other talent, yet somehow, both managed to maintain a modicum of efficiency. Getting the chance to play alongside far better teammates and in more complementary roles will be a welcome change. Finally, 4-star freshman Kowacie Reeves brings size, athleticism, and shot-making, though his best role is as a catch-and-shoot or catch-and-attack threat on the wing. Reeves becomes especially important following the quiet summer departure of Samson Ruzhentsev, a prized 2020 recruit.

All of those guys will be offered chances to play a two-man game with Castleton, an effective roller and post up threat when fed consistently. White’s offense is one of the most PnR-heavy in the country, so having ball-handlers that can both score and feed the skilled Castleton is crucial.

Like the roster, the coaching staff had its share of turnover as well, with White having to replace two assistants from last year’s group. Those changes could lead to an adjustment in how the team attacks in the half court, and Gator Country’s Eric Fawcett did an outstanding job of breaking down the potential tweaks that could result. My favorite part of that article is the discussion around implementing more off-ball screening action, something that was largely absent from Florida’s offense last year. Jones is a terrific shooter, and forcing opponents to account for him as he moves around the floor can open driving lanes for the other guards and/or slips for Castleton, Duruji, and CJ Felder.

Still, White may opt for a defensive alignment in the starting lineup, which means more minutes for Felder over Duruji. The Boston College transfer is a monster shot-blocker despite standing just 6’7, ranking 51st nationally in block rate, and his mobility and bounce could become fully weaponized now that he’s escaped the toxic mess that was BC last year:

Playing Felder alongside Castleton, who ranked 29th in block rate himself, would give the Gators a mega-intimidating duo at the rim.

The problem last year was finishing possessions on the glass, as UF ranked a dismal 275th in defensive rebounding rate. A small part of that may be due to the guards leaking into transition more frequently, but White’s 2019 team ranked 313th in D-Reb rate while playing at a stagnant pace, so that’s not the heart of the problem. Castleton and Duruji were subpar rebounds for their positions, so inserting Felder as a more glass-conscious individual may be a necessity. Getting *some* contribution from the guards – especially now that Mann is gone – would be a major boost as well; expect Fleming to help here.  

On the perimeter, the Gators lose a lot of length in Mann and uber-athlete Scottie Lewis, but Reeves can offset that somewhat, and both Fleming and McKissic won Defensive Player of the Year in their respective conferences in 2020 (shocking for Fleming especially, considering his team went 3-18 overall). Both have great strength for their positions, and along with Appleby’s ball pressure, this group has significant potential.

Bottom Line: The Gators have some serious turnover on the roster, and without any explicit expectation of Johnson making an inspirational comeback, questions exist with this new group. The four incoming transfers played for teams that went a combined 29-61 last season (none had a winning record), and while the individual players themselves offer enticing skillsets, can they be key pieces on a winner in the SEC? That remains to be seen. Castleton, Appleby, and Duruji exist as a solid foundation, so the floor looks relatively stable, but for the Gators to get past the NCAA’s Second Round for the first time since 2017, White will need to assemble a cohesive unit out of what currently looks like an admittedly intriguing stockpile of raw materials.