First Four Game Previews: Tuesday
-Ky McKeon
16. Texas Southern vs. 16. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- TAMU-CC is led by first-year head coach Steve Lutz. He’s brilliant and has served under Matt Painter and Greg McDermott, among others.
- This is TAMU-CC’s first NCAA Tourney appearance since 2007
- Texas Southern is led by former LSU coach Johnny Jones. He is an undeniable master at amassing talent, but his coaching ability is up for interpretation.
- Texas Southern beat Mount St. Mary’s last season in a First Four contest.
Texas Southern Has the Ball
- They cannot shoot and do not look to shoot much from deep. Just 275th in 3P%
- Transition is key, want to get out in the open floor
- Pick-n-roll in the half-court. TSU has a plethora of talented guards and long wings. TSU leads the country in bench minutes and any given player on any given night can lead them in scoring.
- Rim attack is key, as is pounding the offensive glass. TSU has legitimate size in Brison Gresham (Houston transfer) and Joirdan Karl Nicholas (SFA / Montana).
- TAMU-CC is aggressive but very small. They could get exposed in the paint, both on the block and on the glass
- TSU is a TERRIBLE ball handling team. The Tigers rank 337th in TO rate nationally
- Bad news against TAMU-CC. The Islanders rank 18th nationally in TO rate. They will use turnovers to spark their transition attack / offense on the other end of the floor.
- Expect full-court pressure from TAMU-CC, as well as in-your-jock defense in the halfcourt
- TSU is a bad free throw shooting team (67.1%, 319th in country).
- This is huge against a team in TAMU-CC that sends foes to the line at the 10th highest rate nationally. TSU cannot overly punish TAMU-CC’s overly aggressive defense.
Texas A&M Corpus-Christi Has the Ball
- Transition is key. They want to play up-and-down as offense can stagnate in the halfcourt. As mentioned above, turnovers fuel this transition attack. If TSU can’t handle the ball, TAMU-CC could win.
- TAMU-CC ranks 29th in average offensive possession length
- TSU is not a great transition defense team
- In the halfcourt, rim attack is the name of the game. TAMU-CC ranks 11th in FGA% near the rim. They get to the rim and the line frequently.
- TSU has a very stout interior defense. The Tigers rank 27th in block rate, 21st in 2PFG%, and 25th in FG% allowed at the rim
- If TSU sells out for blocks and doesn’t stay disciplined, TAMU-CC could exploit them on the weak side
- TAMU-CC ranks 18th in FTA rate and 69th in FT% (75%).
- TSU ranks 278th in FTA rate allowed.
- Isaac Mushila is one of the best rebounders in college basketball. He’s only 6’5”, so TSU might be able to keep him at bay.
Final Thoughts
- TAMU-CC will have a hard time scoring in the halfcourt. They need to force 15-20 turnovers and get easy buckets in transition
- I trust Lutz to have a rock-solid game plan to deal with TSU size. Look for TAMU-CC to be patient when attacking the rim and sell pump fakes like a kid sells lemonade.
- Texas Southern has been here before, they will not shy away from the moment. Both teams are experienced and both have competed with top-notch competition, but edge to the Tigers here
- This game will not be efficient, but there’s going to be north of 70 possessions and plenty of free throw attempts. Because of that I skew OVER on the total
Picks: Texas A&M Corpus Christi +4, OVER 136
-Matt Cox
12. Indiana v. 12. Wyoming
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Indiana in the PIG is a vintage committee hatchet job (no homer here!). IU already playing the disrespected victim card, loudly…
- Battle of the bigs is fascinating. TJD and Race Thompson anchor the Big Ten’s best interior defense, which may pose issues for Wyoming’s post-centric offense. The ‘Post-Up Pokes’ play through the post at the highest rate in America, per Synergy.
- Can Xavier Johnson, IU’s enigmatic engine, keep it rolling? He’s been nothing short of stellar the last month of the year after a volatile up and down campaign. It’s cliche, but these Hoosiers go as “X” goes…
Indiana Has the Ball
- X may be the ‘X-Factor’ but TJD is still the Hoosiers’ meal ticket. IU posted up at the 10th highest rate in America this year, per Synergy. Lately, the key to his resurgence has been spacing.
- Wyoming hasn’t seen prolific post players this season, other than the dominant Orlando Robinson. He torched Wyoming in the second meeting but Linder was able to hold him in check the first time.
- Linder, presumably, will aim to cramp that spacing and force TJD to give up the rock. Look for early doubles and digs from the Pokes on the block. Against “X”, expect drop coverage, as Linder will dare him to beat them from 3.
Wyoming Has the Ball
- Shutting down the dueling dragons of 6’7 Hunter Maldonado and 6’9 Graham Ike, the Pokes’ post-up aficionados, will be top priority for the Hoosiers.
- Indiana’s been prone to defensive lapses on the perimeter. The challenge is corralling Maldonado without letting shooters or cutters get loose around him. This is where the Mountain West’s top assist man can torch you.
- Indiana’s defense is at its apex right now with Rob Phinisee and Trey Galloway garnering serious run on the perimeter. IU’s starting backcourt, Parker Stewart and Miller Kopp, are more vulnerable in this regard, but the Pokes don’t have any dynamic creators, save Maldonado. How will Woodson juggle these rotations?
- Jeremiah Oden could be Wyoming’s X-Factor. A bouncy wing / forward tweener, Oden’s capable of going off for big games if ignored, both as a shooter and as a rim attacker.
Final Thoughts
- As pointed out by Jordan Majewski, this game will be a boxing match - thus, the referees, unfortunately, could play a major role in the outcome.
- Wyoming draws fouls at the 33rd highest rate in America; Indiana is 81st, per KenPom
- IU fans should fear for a tricky game plan brewing in Linder’s kitchen right now - containing IU revolves around suffocating real estate for TJD and X to operate.
- However, the Hoosiers are inherently build to stop Wyoming’s offensive bread and butter. Look for Woodson to tinker with multiple matchups on Maldonado, and he’s got a few worthy candidates up to the task.