-Jim Root, Ky McKeon, and Matt Cox

Wow, it feels good to create one of these bad boys! After no tournament previews (aka no tournament) in 2020, we’re thrilled to be back with our game-by-game analysis of the NCAA Tournament for 2021 (sans Round 2 - too many games, too short of a turnaround, too much Vegas for us).

ONE CHANGE TO NOTE THIS YEAR: Our picks are all at the bottom in a fancy spreadsheet .jpg. We’ll be updating that as we go - each Weaver will have the ability to make an ATS and/or total pick on every single game. Basically, Matt got annoyed at Ky and Jim for dragging him down and wanted to stand on his own.

(Actually, we thought it more helpful to show where we all stood, rather than just the writer of each preview.)

(16) Texas Southern vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s

-Matt Cox

Initial Thoughts: Miserable matchup for Texas Southern. Not only is Dan Englestad’s ‘mount’ainous frontline a dream for the Mount’s marketing team, it’s built to erase everything the Tigers do on offense. 

MSM trots out one of the biggest frontcourt trios found in mid-major land, Mezie Offerum, Malik Jefferson and Nana Opoku, each standing 6’9. While the rabid obsession over pace and space permeates throughout college basketball, the Mount is truly a black swan. This unorthodox 3-big lineup can neutralize the Johnny Jones’ surplus of athletes, who are simply too long and too fast for their SWAC counterparts. 

Not only is MSM big but they don’t foul. Englestad weaponizes his gargantuan size in a calculated manner, forcing opponents to shoot over the tree trunk limbs without reaching or hacking.

Texas Southern on Offense: In the face of major roadblocks for Texas Southern on offense, Michael Weathers is the ultimate ‘get out of jail free’ card. In SWAC-land, Weathers is kind of like that kid in junior high who was a destroyer in every sport because his parents held him back. In other words, he’s just too talented for that conference. Once upon a time, Weathers was a dominant, albeit inefficient, rookie in the MAC back in 2018. He put up jaw-dropping numbers at Miami Ohio before taking his talents at Oklahoma State, but “BB gun gate” led to his dismissal from Mike Boynton’s program. Naturally, Johnny Jones was waiting to scoop him up.

Weathers put on his super hero cape against Jackson State in the SWAC Semifinals, showcasing every facet of his enviable scoring package. Weathers is not a lone ranger on this roster - the primary rotation features imports from a slew of prominent programs, such as Georgetown (Galen Alexander), Texas A&M (John Walker), Nevada (John Jones), UMass (Chris Baldwin) and SFA (Joirdon Karl Nicholas) - but it’s Weathers who has that takeover gene. He’s also their best pure shot maker, while the others make their pay inside.

For MSM, the 6’8 Offurum seems like the odds on favorite to check Weathers. He’s mobile enough to keep Weathers in front and holds a 5-inch height advantage, which will give him an additional cushion to still contest and bother Weathers’ pull up jumper. While Opoku took home DPOTY honors in the NEC as the Mount’s token interior enforcer, Offurum was nails on the perimeter all year long. 

Finally, look for Mount St. Mary’s to employ some zone in this matchup. Englestad has been a devout man-to-man deployer this season but mixing up defenses is a great idea against Johnny Jones’ one-dimensional scoring attack.

Mount St. Mary’s on Offense: After leading scorer Jalen Gibbs opted to enter the transfer portal just four games into the season, Damian Chong Qui was promptly promoted to CEO of the offense. The 5’8 jitterbug has juggled the unexpected double duties like a Cirque du Soleil professional. He’s responsible for setting the table for his gargantuan teammates while shouldering the bulk of the scoring load, and when the game’s on the line, you better believe it’s ‘Dame’ time (see 2nd video in thread).

If there’s an over / under prop bet for 50 or more ball screens, take the over. DCQ loves to slither his way around the floor, probing through the endless picks set by his personal screening ‘‘Whomps’ in Offurum, Jefferson and Opoku. Per Synergy, nearly 42% of MSM’s possessions end with Qui shooting or distributing out of pick-n-roll action. DCQ loves to get going downhill with his left hand to set up his floater or pull up but he’s just as adept with the ‘off hand’ as well.

My only concern in this matchup is DCQ’s size, as his mini-me frame could be an issue against Weathers (6’3) and the other long Texas Southern guards and wings. 

Key Factor: The aforementioned Offurum could be the X-factor for the Mount, the quasi wing of the aforementioned Mount trio. While Opoku and Jefferson skew toward the traditional big man prototype, Offurum is a capable handler and creator out in the open floor. If the Tigers opt to dial up any defensive pressure, Offurum must take on a portion of DCQ’s ball handling duties. The Mount’s offense is susceptible to scoring droughts - the back to back series against Wagner’s zone was brutal - which usually sprouts from defenses that key in on DCQ and force the others to make plays. Offurum needs to be the counter punch if TXSO follows that same blueprint.

Final Predictions: MSM is a tough nut to crack for Texas Southern. The Mountaineers’ base lineup and stylistic package is already tailor-made to disrupt the Tigers’ offense, which is hard wired to play a free-wheeling, open floor pickup game (a SWAC staple). TXSO only played one game this year that clocked fewer than 66 total possessions. Granted, the Tigers were competitive in that non-conference tilt against Saint Mary’s (not the Mount version), but MSM presents a whole new set of issues.

(11) Wichita St. vs. (11) Drake

-Jim Root

Initial Thoughts: Fewer places were sweatier on Selection Sunday than Wichita and Des Moines, where both the Shockers and Bulldogs had to feel squarely on the cut-line. And as the last two teams in the field, they were right to be!

Drake especially breathes a sigh of relief after injuries crushed the top of the roster, leaving the committee an easy excuse to keep the Bulldogs out of Indianapolis (should they have wanted one); instead, Drake snuck in, falling behind even surprise auto-bids Georgetown and Oregon State on the final seed list. Crucially, one of the wounded, Tank Hemphill, should be good to go for Thursday’s matchup, though his effectiveness is unknown.

On the other hand, Wichita survived poor metrics and limited opportunities (only 19 games played) to fight another day, likely aided by the American outright regular season crown. The Shockers were a stunning (I resisted the pun!) inclusion to the field, at least to most Bracket Matrix participants, but I don’t hate seeing them here.

Drake on Offense: With two tremendous point guards, Darian DeVries – a superb strategist on the sideline – smartly shifted the offense to one of the most pick-and-roll-dependent schemes in the country. Roman Penn might have challenged Cam Krutwig for MVC Player of the Year before his season-ending injury, and Joe Yesufu has emerged into a star in his own right after taking over, averaging 23.0 PPG in the six games since Penn got hurt.

He’s much more of a scorer and less of a creator than Penn, though, which has cut into the production of his teammates. The return of Hemphill, a thunderbolt of a slasher and a constant lob threat, adds another crucial weapon to the arsenal – behold the Yesufu-to-Hemphill connection:

He may not be a shooter, but Hemphill’s ability to win one-on-one off the bounce forces more help, creating more open shots for Drake’s snipers, Jonah Jackson and Tremell Murphy. DeVries often plays Murphy and Hemphill together as a forward pair, and it’s inevitable that one of them has a strength or quickness advantage against his opponent; Murphy has become particularly adept at finishing with floaters in the paint. Wichita can actually combat this duo somewhat with Trey Wade and Dexter Dennis, but Murphy and Hemphill will likely still find ways to get theirs.

The Shockers are not a strong defense group, by and large, and even their mediocre numbers on that end have been buoyed by the plethora of ice-cold opponents in the American (opponents shot 28.9% from deep against Wichita State in conference play – gross). They’re also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the entire country, so expect mountainous Drake center Darnell Brodie, Hemphill, and ultimate pest and cutter extraordinaire Garrett Sturtz to gobble up second shot opportunities.

Wichita St. on Offense: Hemphill’s return must also be mentioned on this end, as he became the point man on DeVries’ various pressing schemes thanks to his length and knack for getting deflections. Wichita has an outstanding group of guards that take great care of the ball, so turnovers should not be an issue, but Drake’s press is geared more towards disrupting an offense’s flow and stalling possessions out before they can get started.

Fortunately, the Shockers’ attack has been led by that backcourt’s ability to get buckets, often without requiring a screen. Tyson Etienne and Alterique Gilbert are both more than capable as creators and shot-makers, and they’ll be relied on heavily in this one if Drake is able to drain the shot clock the way it desires (324th nationally in average possession length defensively).

Plus, akin the Shockers’ own defense, Drake’s defense has benefitted from poor shooting by opponents. Some of the credit goes to the Bulldogs’ scrappy defending that makes foes uncomfortable, but against a team like Wichita State that has multiple deep threats, postseason regression is a scary proposition.

Key Factor(s): Drake’s dominance against the spread received plenty of attention, but digging into why this team has been so dominant compared to expectations has been a fun exercise. My biggest takeaway: thanks in large part to Sturtz and Hemphill, Drake is one of the best off-ball cutting teams in the entire country. That’s mega alarming for Wichtia State, which has been routinely gashed by that kind of action, ranking in the 24th percentile per Synergy:

Alterique Gilbert gets beat by the same back door cut twice in a single possession! That’s hard to do. Drake could rack up easy points this way.

Final Prediction: I fully expect Isaac Brown to have a long and successful career at Wichita State, but he’s facing one of the true rising stars in the profession in DeVries, and this Drake . Perhaps there are some rust concerns after not playing for so long and reincorporating Hemphill in the rotation, but I believe the Bulldogs will be prepared. Plus, even if they get off to a slow start, they’ve been terrific in the second half this year, and Wichita State has blown its fair share of leads. I’ll be backing the darlings from Drake in this one.

(16) Appalachian St. vs. (16) Norfolk St.

-Ky McKeon

Initial Thoughts: App State had arguably the most impressive mid-major conference tournament run in the country, winning four games in four days including three against the top three teams in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers rode spectacular guard play and hot shooting and were promptly rewarded with a 16-seed in the Big Dance.

The name Norfolk State conjures up plenty of terrible memories for this Mizzou Tiger alum, but I promise to remove all emotion from this preview. Norfolk is a very good basketball team and even beat James Madison and George Mason in the non-con portion of its schedule. Despite this being the Spartans’ first NCAA Tournament since that Kyle O-Quinn led 15-seed Cinderella, this program has been a staple atop the MEAC standings the past decade-plus.

Steam came backing App State immediately, pushing the spread from 2 to 3.

Appalachian State on Offense: App State is a guard-centric offense that relies primarily on jump-shooting to score the ball. Its three-headed backcourt of Justin Forrest, Michael Almonacy, and Adrian Delph is a dangerous combination that can score against just about any defense in the country. Head coach Dustin Kerns loves using de facto 4-man Donovan Gregory and other forwards as linchpins at the top of the key off which he runs his talented guards, resulting in ASU being one of the most prolific “hand-off” offenses in the country.

This action is not only pivotal for creating driving space for would-be ball handlers, but it also sets up spot-up opportunities when defenses collapse.

Now, this action becomes slightly less important when Norfolk goes zone. The Spartans zone at the 28th highest rate in the country (per Synergy), and it’s primarily an aggressive matchup 2-3 look. ASU hasn’t been particularly good against zones this year, scoring in just the 26th percentile on a points per possession basis (per Synergy), but the sample size isn’t large. Against a heavy-zoning Coastal Carolina squad in the Sun Belt tournament, App State struggled mightily to score inside the arc. Thankfully, outside shots were falling for the Mountaineers.

App State isn’t a very big team – they have two true big men who see consistent playing time – so it wouldn’t be surprising if Norfolk played more man in the half-court. The Mountaineers proved how deadly they can be from deep, shooting 44/114 (39%) from outside the arc in their 4-game run to the ship.

Regardless of half-court strategy, we should see Norfolk coach Robert Jones implement some full-court pressure. The Spartans press at the 46th highest clip nationally and create a lot of their offense off opponent turnovers. Norfolk opponents play at the 20th-fastest pace in the country – the Spartans want to speed you up and get you out of your comfort zone.

App State has fared very well against zone this season thanks in large part to their ability to handle the ball. Kerns always has three capable ball handlers on floor, so I don’t suspect Norfolk’s trapping 2-2-1 extended look to give the Mountaineers much of a fit.

Norfolk State on Offense: As said earlier, Norfolk creates a lot of its offense off steals. The Spartans use the 36th most possessions in transition, per Synergy, and much of those come off turnovers versus opponent scores or the defensive glass. Assuming App State handles the ball as well as they usually do, Norfolk will need to rely on other methods to score.

One area in which the Spartans could find success is the offensive glass. Norfolk is very scrappy and aggressive, and senior forward JJ Matthews is a terrific offensive glass crasher. App State doesn’t have the size to compete consistently on the boards; the Mountaineers rank just 273rd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (KenPom).

Norfolk ranks 27th in the country in FT rate, which aligns with its tough, scrappy overall style. Spartan guards relentlessly attack the basket off ball screens and get to the line at very high rates. Guards Devante Carter and Mustafa Lawrence are very dynamic off the bounce. And while Norfolk doesn’t take many threes, it is a very good shooting team. Joe Bryant and Kashaun Hicks are both shooting 40% from deep this season, and the Spartans as a squad rank 33rd in 3P%.

App State may get beat on the boards, but don’t expect the Mountaineers to send the Spartans to the foul line at a ridiculous rate. ASU ranks 23rd in FT rate allowed; the Mountaineers play without fouling, key against a Norfolk team that seeks contact on nearly every possession. App State guards are also very good at closing out on shooters – per Synergy, the Mountaineers rank in the 91st percentile nationally in PPP allowed off spot-ups.

Key Factor(s): App State will need continue its steady ball-handling it has displayed all season. Having three upperclassmen manning the rock will help tremendously in this effort. Norfolk will try to speed up the Mountaineers, which might be a tall task considering ASU plays at the 296th slowest pace on offense.

Norfolk’s greatest avenue to scoring is to own the glass against a so-so ASU rebounding team.

Of course, shooting is the great equalizer. Both these squads can fill it up from distance – he who is hotter shall advance.

Final Prediction: App State’s run in the Sun Belt tournament was incredibly impressive and showed me how dangerous this team can be. Both Norfolk and App State are very experienced and have solid backcourts, I just think ASU’s guards are better overall. Throw in the fact Dustin Kerns could very well be one of the best coaches in America, and that’s enough for me to back the short favorite.

(11) Michigan St. vs. (11) UCLA

-Jim Root

Initial Thoughts: Though it’s not a huge surprise to see both of these names in the NCAA field, it was a mild surprise for them to pop up in a First Four setting. Michigan State, in particular, seemed relatively safely above the cutline after amassing five Quadrant 1 wins and zero bad losses, but soft metrics  (70th in the NET) seemed to have pushed the Fightin’ Izzos into Last Four In territory.

UCLA, meanwhile, backed into the tournament, losers of four straight and seven of its last 12. Even as Johnny Juzang has realized some of his considerable offensive potential, Chris Smith’s injury way back in December has had far-reaching effects, robbing Mick Cronin’s squad of its most versatile piece on both ends. Still, the Bruins have a potent offensive attack and have embraced their coach’s identity as half court grinders.  

Michigan State on Offense: At various points this season, Michigan State’s problems were directly due to an anemic offense or a Swiss cheese defense, with the offensive ineptitude showing up most glaringly during a three-game stretch that sandwiched the Spartans’ mid-January COVID pause. In those games – losses to Purdue, Rutgers, and Ohio State – Tom Izzo’s squad tallied 0.89, 0.57, and 0.89 points per possession, and it looked like they might never be competent again on that end.

Fortunately, that unsustainably bad run of performances did not maintain, though this is still a fringe 100 unit by most analytical measures (98th in KenPom’s AdjOE, 101st in T-Rank AdjOE).

The biggest weakness here is a lack of true one-on-one threats and shot creators. Rocket Watts was an abomination on offense in Big Ten play, shooting 29.9% from the field and 23.1% from beyond the arc, leaving too large a burden on wing Aaron Henry and freshman AJ Hoggard. It might seem great that the Spartans rank 6th nationally in assist percentage, but that’s as much of an indictment on the lack of individual dynamism as it is a compliment of their ball movement. That flaw becomes most apparent against defenses that either pressure or resolutely drain the shot clock, forcing Michigan State into long possessions where it must rely on one guy to generate buckets.

Unfortunately, UCLA qualifies as the latter – no surprise for a Mick Cronin team. The Bruins’ defense ranks 318th in average possession length, illustrating how Cronin’s physical identity has already permeated the program. Per Synergy, Michigan State ranks in the 20th percentile in short shot clock situations (less than 4 seconds), so we could see a lot of possessions like this one:

Fortunately, Henry and Josh Langford started to emerge late in the season as real threats, and for all of Joey Hauser’s faults, he can still be a mismatch in the mid-post. Per Synergy, Hauser scored 1.045 points per possession on post ups, good for the 87th percentile nationally:

He’s especially deadly on that left block where he can finish in the middle with his right hand. Figuring out the right way to weaponize Hauser has been a challenge for the Spartans, but he has the size and ball skills to find buckets against a UCLA frontcourt that badly misses Chris Smith and Jalen Hill.

UCLA on Offense: Speaking of Hill (away from the team for personal reasons), his absence is also vital on the offensive end. He wasn’t a go-to post threat or anything, but his physicality and maniacal offensive rebounding led to trips to the stripe, easy put-backs and kick-out threes. Again, he did not play big minutes, but the on/off numbers are stark:

That matters against this version of Michigan State, which is not quite as stout at the rim or on the defensive glass as in past seasons:

Cody Riley is still a formidable threat in the paint, and touted recruit Mac Etienne is progressing after graduating high school early and enrolling in January, but without Hill, it’s not the same kind of two-headed monster that grinds opponents down over the course of the game.

A couple other key issues bear monitoring as well. First, the Bruins rely heavily on Tyger Campbell to create for others, either out of isolation or in pick-and-rolls; he ranks 58th nationally in assist rate. The strength of Michigan State’s defense this year is its array of lanky perimeter wings, with Henry, Langford, and Gabe Brown all capable of putting the clamps on opposing guards. All three have a major size advantage on Campbell, and his change-of-pace style won’t blow them away with quickness.

The other problem is that Johnny Juzang, who blossomed into an offensive force during Pac-12 play (averaged 18.7 PPG during one nine-game stretch), has been banged up lately and did not look like himself in the conference tournament loss to Oregon State. He managed only 24 minutes after missing the regular season finale, and he needs to be healthy for the UCLA offense to thrive. Even if he is, though, Michigan State can throw its array of wing defenders at him as well.

Key Factor(s): These two teams feel like they’re going in different directions. Though Michigan State did lose twice to Maryland down the stretch, three key home wins against top NCAA seeds vaulted the Spartans up the seed line, while UCLA nearly slid out of the tournament entirely.

Plus, without Hill in the frontcourt, UCLA can’t punish the Spartans’ relatively soft interior defense as effectively as they might while platooning him and Riley. The offense may end up too perimeter-reliant against a foe that excels in that area.

Final Prediction: The analysis has probably given this away, but I’m rolling with Mr. Izzo in the month of March. Fortunately, I have more reasoning that a simple cliché, as I think the Spartans’ recent positive play (albeit all in East Lansing) gives them a leg up against a short-handed UCLA squad.

Official 3MW Picks