-Jim Root

Key Returners: Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, Joey Baker, Jordan Goldwire
Key Losses: Vernon Carey (pro), Tre Jones (pro), Cassius Stanley (pro), Javin DeLaurier, Jack White
Key Newcomers: Jalen Johnson, Jeremy Roach, DJ Steward, Mark Williams, Jaemyn Brakefield, Patrick Tape (Columbia), Henry Coleman

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a year of Zion hysteria, last year’s Duke team was almost nondescript by comparison. Six straight NBA Drafts have featured a Duke player in the top 3 picks; this year’s draft probably won’t see a Duke player in the entire lottery. Sure, the Blue Devils went 25-6 and were likely headed towards a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they were a part of three of the season’s wildest games (OT loss to Stephen F. Austin, OT win at UNC, 2OT loss at Wake Forest). But without a mega-marketable star, last year’s college basketball campaign did not have the same ubiquitous Duke presence.

Recruiting rankings would indicate that this year’s team will be similarly bereft of a star. The Blue Devils have no freshmen in the top 10 per 247 sports (just one in the top-20), and though they return two sophomores with high pedigrees in Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt, neither player is making NBA front offices salivate. Looks like another star-less squad in Durham, right?

Put the pitchforks down, Cameron Crazies – I know that living by recruiting rankings is a dangerous dance. Jalen Johnson, the top-20 recruit alluded to above, is a clear star-level prospect given his size, skill, and basketball IQ, and he’ll end up a candidate for ACC Player of the Year as Duke’s offensive fulcrum. Johnson’s odd senior year of high school (began the season at IMG Academy in Florida, finished at Nicolet in his home state of Wisconsin) may have knocked his ranking slightly, but the versatile forward can score, defend, and especially pass at a high level. Coach K has had a lot of success with similar big wing/forward types; he’s not the pure bucket-getter that Jabari Parker/Brandon Ingram/Jayson Tatum were, but if put in isolation and mid-post settings, he can score and spray the ball around to waiting shooters in a similar fashion:

And more than most recent Duke squads, this team has shooting. DJ Steward has a tremendous stroke from downtown, although just calling him a “shooter” sells him short – the Chicago native embodies the phrase “wired to score.” Athletic forward Jaemyn Brakefield can also stretch the floor, although his release is a little low/pushy for my taste. Three veterans – Matthew Hurt, Joey Baker, and Jordan Goldwire – all shot over 35% from deep last year, as well. Hurt’s decision to skip the NBA Draft was a slight surprise, but he should have more of a chance to show an expanded game this year. Baker vascillates in and out of Coach K’s dog house, but when he’s on the court, defenses have to know where he is. Goldwire rarely looks at the basket, but he plays his role well (read: stays out of the way).

Hurt may be the key to unlocking the offense. If he adds strength and can hold up at center for short stretches, Duke becomes tremendously difficult to guard. Krzyzewski rarely runs ball screens, but he knows the value of spreading the court to open up driving gaps; with Hurt at center, that’s almost a foregone conclusion. We rarely saw that last year with a presence like Vernon Carey, but it’s a dangerous card that K can play when the offense needs a jolt of Red Bull.

In bigger lineups, Duke has two options at center: Columbia grad transfer Patrick Tape, a sturdy paint presence and a skilled finisher, and Mark Williams, who’s more of the classic “run and jump” big man. Tape is the steadier, higher-floor option, but the athletic Williams oozes potential as a rim protector and dunking threat. Both should also be forces on the offensive glass, an area where Duke has dominated lately (ranked 1st, 14th, and 17th in offensive rebound rate the last three seasons).

Of course, with Tre Jones gone, the Blue Devils need a new floor general, and Jeremy Roach is an ideal fit. He’s an outstanding slasher and plays with high energy and aggressiveness on defense; he’s not quite on Trevon Duval’s level as an athlete, but thankfully he’s more competent as a shooter than Duval. Roach can make smart reads out of the pick-and-roll, but considering the amount of pros Duke has had on the roster, Coach K hasn’t run much pick-and-roll in recent years:

Instead, he gives his point guards the freedom to attack one-on-one, and Roach will be able to get downhill against most defenders given his strong handle, lightning first step, and low center of gravity when he drives. Roach should ignite the transition attack with his aggressiveness, another key to K’s offenses, and a forward like Johnson who can “grab and go” on the defensive glass will also weaponize Duke’s open floor onslaught. On the defensive end, Roach and Goldwire should harass opposing guards for 94 feet, especially when Tape or Williams is on the court to protect the paint.

Speaking of defense, Wendell Moore should be the team’s best wing defender. His combination of strength and athleticism allows him to guard multiple positions, and after struggling with injury and confidence issues last year, he should be more settled in as a sophomore. He’s not a shooter, though. Brakefield is another multipositional defensive talent, and the sixth member of Duke’s freshman class, Henry Coleman, will need to contribute on this end to see the court. Coleman is built like a freight train and has plenty of vertical bounce, but there are only so many minutes to go around. With so much depth and so many high-ceiling defenders, don’t expect to see a repeat of 2018’s desperation switch to a 2-3 zone.

Given the deep incoming class, Coach K will have to find the right balance between mixing in veterans like Baker, Tape, and Goldwire versus riding the incoming talent. Even in the one-and-done era, his best teams have featured experienced rotation players (Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones) to steady things and keep some sanity in terms of shot selection and defensive principles. Goldwire in particular is someone Coach K has a hard time keeping off the floor, and for good reason: the tiny former 2-star recruit ranked 7th in the entire country in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, per Sports Reference, finishing alongside such luminaries as Baylor’s Mark Vital, KU’s Marcus Garrett, Seton Hall’s Romaro Gill, and Colorado’s Tyler Bey.

Bottom Line: It’s another deep and talented team in Durham, and this one has a couple solid veterans who can help foster the youngsters into the college game. If Johnson plays like the star that many (including myself) expect him to be, Duke’s ceiling is quite high: the Blue Devils have shooters, defenders, ball-handlers, athletes – everything Coach K could want. He’ll need to find the correct assembly for all of those pieces, and we’ll no doubt see a head-scratching road performance or two in ACC play, but the Blue Devils will once again be a major factor come March – and this time, they may have a headlining NBA Draft prospect leading them.