-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Kenneth Lofton, So., Louisiana Tech
Coach of the Year: Eric Konkol, Louisiana Tech
Newcomer of the Year: Keith Williams, R Sr., Western Kentucky
Freshman of the Year: Zion Harmon, Western Kentucky

Tier 1

1. Louisiana Tech

Key Returners: Kenneth Lofton, Isaiah Crawford, Amorie Archibald, Cobe Williams, Exavian Christon
Key Losses: JaColby Pemberton, Kalob Ledoux
Key Newcomers: Keaston Willis (Incarnate Word), LaDamien Bradford (Texas A&M), David Green (Hofstra), Terran Williams, Kaleb Stewart, Will Allen

Lineup:

Outlook: In a season of COVID cancellations, postponements, and team pauses, Louisiana Tech experienced its own stoppage in February due to *checks notes* a snowstorm in Ruston, LA? Strange but true, as the Bulldogs managed to avoid COVID issues but missed out on a trip to Middle Tennessee in February due to wintry conditions, just another oddity in a season full of them. Still, Eric Konkol’s squad exceeded expectations while replacing three departed senior starters, and with more experience returning this season – and a star-in-the-making manning the paint – expectations are sky high for the Bulldogs.

This preview, like every opposing scouting report, will begin by slightly parodying one of Michael Jackson’s greatest hits: we’re starting with the maaaaan in the middle! Sophomore Kenneth Lofton Jr. took the conference by storm down the stretch last season, using his massive (massive) frame to go through opponents and finish over the top of them thanks to his broad shoulders, incredible patience, and impressive touch:

It’s not all just bully ball though, either:

One more clip of him, just because he’s the man? FINE, twist my arm…how’s this for sealing a postseason win?

Lofton is much more agile than he looks, and when you combine that with his incredible strength, unconventional lefty finishing package, and deft footwork, he becomes a total nightmare to defend. He even wowed for the USA FIBA U19 team this offseason, racking up double figure scoring in the final six games, including 16 points and seven boards against France in the gold medal game (and was the go-to guy down the stretch). If you cannot tell, we’re all in on Big Kenny.

Lofton’s sneaky mobility makes it easier to construct a defense around him. Think of Louisiana Tech as something of a “Loyola-Chicago Lite” on this end – Lofton is not a big shot-blocker, but like Cam Krutwig, he’s smart and quick in small spaces, and he eats up room in the paint while dominating the glass. Konkol surrounds him with a bunch of switchable defenders and quick guards who can fly around and cover one-on-one, again very much like Porter Moser’s Ramblers last season.

Most of those pieces return, most notably Isaiah Crawford, Exavian Christon, and Amorie Archibald. Crawford is the nominal power forward, but he can handle multiple positions defensively, and he’s an ideal fit next to Lofton because he can stretch the floor offensively (38% from beyond the arc):

Archibald shares ball-handling duties with Cobe Williams, and though the 5th-year guard struggled with his shot last year, he’s a steadying presence on both ends of the court. The same can be said of classmate Christon, a stout guard at 6’4, 200 pounds. Williams, a perimeter pest, actually made the league’s All-Defensive team last year, demonstrating his ability to drive opponents nuts on that end.

Konkol also added two transfers who should make an impact. David Green brings a similar build and style to Crawford, though after playing for an awful Hofstra defense, he will have some catching up to do on that end. On the other hand, LaDamien Bradford has the physical tools and background to be an immediate fit; his issue at Texas A&M was sporadic playing time and the minimal confidence that results. That group should provide Konkol with enough depth and lineup choices to once again construct a terrific and disciplined man-to-man defense that forces a high share of difficult mid-range jumpers.   

If the Bulldogs are going to deliver on their upside and take advantage of such a singular talent in the paint, they will need to sharpen up offensively. Lofton was a one-man show on the offensive glass, and while that can work if it keeps the transition defense stout, it further accentuates the importance of making shots and taking care of the ball. To that end, a healthier Williams will be vital: the lightning-quick sophomore dealt with a wrist injury at the end of the season that forced him to play with a cast on, severely limiting his aggressiveness and playmaking abilities. Archibald will also be asked to take better care of the ball, as will Lofton, whose biggest weakness in his game was either shaky FT shooting (59.6%) or a disappointing 47-to-78 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Bulldogs shifted the offense significantly with a beast like Lofton inside, with Konkol embracing the post up far more than in recent years:

That means Lofton will see plenty of double-teams (in fact, probably almost every possession), further emphasizing the importance of his vision and passing. The Bulldogs will also need to take advantage of the open looks he creates, especially without a lethal spot up shooter like Kalob Ledoux around anymore.

Konkol will hope all three transfers – Green, Bradford, and Keaston Willis – can also add some offensive pop. Willis follows Ledoux as a high-usage Southland guard import, and if he can be as effective as Ledoux, it will be considered a success. Freshman guards Terran Williams and Kaleb Stewart will also fight for playing time, though there is a logjam of experience ahead of them.

Bottom Line: The Bulldogs have an outstanding combination of returning rotation players, incoming talent, winning culture, and a Player of the Year candidate that makes them an appealing title pick. Konkol’s group won the C-USA West last year (the league used divisions as part of its COVID scheduling model), and he and the rest of the team will be eager to maintain their standing atop the league. If Lofton blossoms into the national star he is capable of and the players around him settle into the right roles, then Konkol’s first NCAA appearance (and Louisiana Tech’s first since 1991!!!) may be in the cards. So long as COVID and the weather stay out of the way…

2. UAB

Key Returners: Tavin Lovan, Quan Jackson, Michael Ertel, Trey Jemison
Key Losses: Tyreek Scott-Grayson (transfer), Kassim Nicholson (transfer), Jalen Benjamin (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jordan Walker (Tulane), KJ Buffen (Mississippi), Jamal Johnson (Auburn), Justin Brown (South Florida), Tyreke Locure (South Alabama), Josh LeBlanc (LSU), Elijah Tate (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: When Andy Kennedy took over at his alma mater last year, he told Blue Ribbon Yearbook that he wanted to elevate the program back to the glory days of Gene Bartow. That’s a high bar: Bartow made the NCAA Tournament seven straight years from 1981 to 1987, including an Elite Eight appearance in 1982, and he won over 63% of his conference games while at the school. Getting to that level may take more time, but it’s fair to say Kennedy got off to a terrific start, winning 22 games in his first campaign while blending key veterans and newcomers alike into a new system. With an even more loaded roster and a full offseason, Kennedy should take an even larger step towards the Bartow bar this year.

In addition to getting two key pieces back via the COVID year, Kennedy took a lengthy swim in the waters of the transfer portal, securing multiple key pieces who appear to fit his style quite well (and/or fix some of the flaws of last year’s team). In year one, Kennedy really cranked the defensive pressure with a bevy of athletic guards, and adding guys like Jordan Walker and Tyreke Locure from similar pressure systems only amplifies the number of turnovers the Blazers should generate. Plus, LSU transfer Josh LeBlanc is an outrageous athlete in the frontcourt, and placing him at the top of any sort of pressure look – 1-2-2 full court, 1-3-1 half court, etc. – will keep opposing coaches up at night.

Even before adding those three, UAB has multiple impact defenders on the roster. Tavin Lovan thrived under a new coach, and perhaps no player was more disruptive in the entire conference than Quan Jackson. Jackson’s crazy pilfer pace fell off slightly after a knee injury, but he has ranked 19th nationally in steal rate for two straight years, and he could climb even higher on that list in his 5th collegiate campaign. It’s not always just steals, though – his hands are everywhere, often forcing errant plays just via his presence (he’s #13 guarding the ball):

North Texas’ Javion Hamlet was one of the best guards in the league, but all it takes is a quick swipe from Jackson to thwart him into an awful pass.

In addition to generating turnovers, though, the constant pressure made opponents incredibly uncomfortable, forcing them into tough mid-range shots and draining their ability to connect even when open jumpers presented themselves. This was especially true in the non-conference, when UAB opponents shot 63-of-232 from 3P range, aka a disgusting 27.2% success rate (that did jump to 35.0% in league play, though). Additional depth all along the roster could help, as it is possible the UAB pressure faded a bit in tightly-bunched COVID schedule.

Another key to the pressure: having legitimate rim protection to cover any mistakes. After arriving from Clemson, Trey Jemison quickly emerged into an outstanding shot-blocker, and combined with his two-way rebounding prowess (and the shakiness of his backups), he had a monster impact on the Blazers’ success:

The lack of depth there will persist unless Rongie Gordon can take a significant step forward or JUCO transfer AD Diedhou is more ready than he appears (the former is more likely than the latter). Ole Miss transfer KJ Buffen could actually play some center if needed, but he’s a much more natural fit at the four who can easily slide into Kassim Nicholson’s place if Kennedy wants to start two bigs again.

UAB’s problems last year were on the offensive end. They ranked near the bottom of the country in both 3PA rate and assist rate, evidencing a lack of dynamic ball movement and a willingness to settle in the mid-range (3rd-most 2P jumpers nationally, per Hoop-Math). Michael Ertel slumped badly, but like Jackson, he could bounce back in a big way in his 5th campaign. Plus, Kennedy landed multiple impact shooters that should boost the attack.

Auburn’s Jamal Johnson and South Florida’s Justin Brown provide both size and perimeter pop on the wing, and Brown can even slide down to a smallball 4 should Kennedy opt for that. Locure is also a capable shooter, and Buffen could even add a little spacing as a true power forward, so there’s certainly hope for UAB to improve on its 30.9% conversion rate from the outside. Jackson and Lovan are solely slashers, so divvying up the lineups to ensure there’s skill balance will be one of Kennedy and his staff’s foremost tasks.

Perhaps most importantly, though: last year’s team had a bunch of scorers in the backcourt, but none were true point guards with a “make teammates better” mindset. Walker has the potential to change that as a real on-ball fulcrum who ranked 37th nationally in assist rate last season. Some of the Blazers’ low assist issues were systemic, but having a guy like Walker in the fold allows Kennedy to shift his style somewhat.

Bottom Line: Considering the pieces and depth he’s assembled, Kennedy should feel quite confident in maintaining the impressive success UAB had on the defensive end last year. Pressure schemes with a mix of LeBlanc, Jackson, Walker, Locure, and Lovan will be downright terrifying, and Jemison is a perfect anchor on the back end. How high the Blazers climb depends on the offense and whether the shooting, shot selection, and ball movement improves – all of which are tangled up in the same conversation. Regardless, UAB looks like a clear Tier One team in C-USA, and the range of outcomes includes some very high-end ones if everything comes together.

3. Western Kentucky

Key Returners: Josh Anderson (extra year), Dayvion McKnight, Luke Frampton
Key Losses: Charles Bassey (pro), Taveion Hollingsworth, Carson Williams, Jordan Rawls (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Keith Williams (Cincinnati), Jairus Hamilton (Maryland), Jaylen Butz (DePaul), Zion Harmon, Jamarion Sharp (JUCO), Elijah Hughey

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s mid-October, football is in full swing, the leaves are falling, the air is crisp…that means it’s time to pump up the Western Kentucky basketball hype train! It’s an annual tradition with the Rick Stansbury-coached Hilltoppers, as he repeatedly assembles gobs of talent but has yet to show up on a Selection Sunday reveal after five seasons. Once again, I cannot question the talent of this WKU roster, but the consistency of floating around 100th in KenPom’s rankings (and the more cohesive teams above them) has spooked me into keeping the Tops in 3rd.

The largest concern for Stansbury is replacing the impact of Charles Bassey in the paint. The former 5-star recruit completely dominated the interior against C-USA foes, and though the transfer tandem of Jaylen Butz and Jairus Hamilton constitutes a skilled and versatile frontcourt, neither player is going to physically overwhelm opponents the way that Bassey did as a scorer, rebounder, and rim protector. WKU was merely average when the gargantuan center sat:

Butz is an active and productive player who can carve out space and score, and Hamilton is a skilled stretch four who could blossom at his third school, but if Stansbury wants to really change the game, he’ll have to figure out how to best deploy the anomalous Jamarion Sharp.

It may sound like I’m spinning tall tales here, but you’re going to have to come along for the ride. Sharp is listed at 7’5 on the WKU roster (he is seemingly still growing), and his film from a year ago looks terrifyingly fluid. He put up video game numbers at a very good junior college program last year: 140 blocks in just 24 games (yes, that is 5.8 per game). It’s hard to project a monstrosity that unique, but at the very minimum, he will be a human eraser whenever he steps foot on the court.

If the frontcourt is something of a mystery after Bassey’s departure, the backcourt is anything but. Cincinnati transfer Keith Williams was a late commitment in August, but he instantly becomes one of the best three or so players in the conference, and his two-way impact will be massive. He can score in multiple ways, and he has the positional versatility to guard everyone but the strongest big men.

He’ll join returners Dayvion McKnight and Josh Anderson in the backcourt, forming a ridiculously athletic trio that could compete in power conferences night in and night out. McKnight is a bulldog with terrific vision, and his efficiency should tick up in his second year, while Anderson is the resident highlight producer of the squad. Stansbury can also mix things up with electrifying top 100 recruit Zion Harmon, another powerful guard who, while lacking in size, can get essentially anywhere he wants on the court and find teammates with pinpoint precision.

The one key area where that group is lacking is perimeter shooting, though with Hamilton spacing from the frontcourt, that concern is alleviated somewhat. Plus, Luke Frampton is lurking on the bench as one of the better pure gunners in all of college hoops; he is now 165-for-419 (39.4%) in his career. Frampton is especially lethal coming off screens, though that’s not a large part of the WKU offense.

The attack is not tremendously structured, as Stansbury rightly knows that his team can out-talent many of its foes. He will run plenty of pick-and-roll with creators like McKnight and Harmon, and Butz slides in as a solid post up option on the block. He also stresses the free throw line on both ends of the court: WKU consistently pulls off the “make more than the opponent attempts” feat, a trend that has borne out over multiple full seasons:

It’s largely due to WKU’s high-level athleticism, but it’s also a clear point of emphasis on both ends of the floor: attack the glass on offense, avoid fouling on defense. That kind of edge at the charity stripe gives the Hilltoppers an inherent edge at the outset of every game.

Depth is a slight concern outside of that top eight, but really, few teams need to go much deeper than eight guys. Isaiah Cozart has shown some flashes and can soak up big man minutes if Sharp is not quite ready for the speed of the game, while JUCO transfer Sherman Brashear and freshman Elijah Hughey will be options on the wing, but this WKU team is much more about the top-end talent.

Bottom Line: No shockers here with Western Kentucky: immensely talented team with multiple perimeter playmakers, but some questions linger about the on-court execution and maximization of that talent. With the explosion of transfers in the league plus utilization of extra years, WKU’s talent edge may not be as severe as it has been in recent years, which means the little things like valuing possessions and taking quality shots will be magnified if the Hilltoppers want to deliver Stansbury his first NCAA appearance at WKU. Williams & Co. make it well within the realm of possibility, but I’m slotting WKU at the bottom of tier one until further notice.

Tier 2

4. Marshall

Key Returners: Taevion Kinsey, Andrew Taylor, Mikel Beyers (extra year), Obinna Anochili-Killen, David Early, Darius George (extra year)
Key Losses: Jannson Williams (transfer), Jarrod West (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Wyatt Fricks, Chase McKey, Kyle Braun, Aymeric Toussaint

Lineup:

Outlook: A strangely satisfying occurrence in college sports: when a team’s style fits its mascot. With the introduction of Dan D’Antoni as head coach back in 2014, Marshall basketball entered this hallowed territory, as his mega up-tempo style elicits imagery of a herd of buffalo thundering down the plains. And though the style is unquestionably entertaining, the best part for Marshall fans is that it has led to consistent winning, as D’Antoni has racked up six straight over-.500 seasons while finishing in the top half of C-USA.

To truly represent the size of buffaloes on the court, D’Antoni would need to recall monster big man Iran Bennett from Eastern Kentucky, but “thundering” may still be the best word to describe Taevion Kinsey’s rim-rocking dunks. He’s the best athlete in the conference, and a quick sort of BartTorvik’s dunk leaderboard last year shows Kinsey as the only non-post player in the top 15 – and the only player under 6’7 in the top 25:

The returning First Team All-C-USA honoree is an electrifying transition player, making him a perfect fit in D’Antoni’s track meet-esque system where he can punish foes in the open floor, and he is a nuclear weapon as a cutter. The rest of his half court game – as a ball-handler and shooter – has come along slowly but surely, and if he can become a better pick-and-roll operator and up the volume on his three-ball, he’s a legitimate NBA player. Kinsey also never leaves the court (7th nationally in % of minutes played, per KenPom), meaning defenses cannot catch their breath against the high-flying dynamo.

Because Kinsey is still developing as a playmaker with the ball in his hands, he needs to be next a primary ball-handler (or two), which means Andrew Taylor will play a vital role this season. Point guard Jarrod West rarely left the floor last year, but the offense held up just fine when Taylor ran the show (we’ll get to those defensive numbers shortly):

Taylor was devastating as a pick-and-roll creator, both for himself and others, with the combination of those possessions ranking in the 94th percentile nationally, per Synergy. He’s also a lights-out shooter when he ends up off the ball.

Shifting him off the ball will be tougher this year without West, though. Marshall appears to be one ball-handler short unless one of David Early or freshman Kyle Braun can be a secondary initiator. Early is a linebacker-esque 6’4, 235 pounds (down 15 lbs. from last year!), and his legs might be the most “thundering” thing about Marshall – seriously, he looks like he could squat a herd of buffalo by himself. He also emerged into a solid complementary wing scorer last year, but D’Antoni may need to put the ball in his hands more this season if Taylor and Kinsey cannot shoulder the entire load. Braun, the son of a famous jazz musician, has a “combo guard” feel to his game, but entrusting a freshman could be difficult in Marshall’s frenetic system.

To play at such a blinding pace, Marshall needs to have multiple mobile bigs who can keep up, and though Jannson Williams’ transfer will hurt, D’Antoni still has three players fully capable of filling that role. Mikel Beyers and Darius George both opted to use the extra COVID year, and they’re both floor-stretching options in the frontcourt. For a more traditional bouncy forward, D’Antoni has Obinna Anochili-Killen, an energetic Nigerian sophomore who screams upside as he continues to grow into his body. Goran Miladinovic is more of lumbering center who plays sparingly, but he’s important as a post defender against bigs like LA Tech’s Kenneth Lofton, and he and Anochili-Killen can ignite the transition attack with blocked shots.

Along with their rim protection, the other key aspect of the Marshall defense is forcing turnovers, which brings us back to the Taylor/West on/off splits above. West was a true demon on the defensive end, constantly harassing foes into errors and ranking 32nd nationally in steal rate. This Marshall roster lacks such a pest, meaning the Herd will have to dig further into its half court man-to-man tenets. Fortunately, the Herd saw significant improvement on the defensive glass for the first time in recent seasons, with Beyers and Taylor in particular rebounding extremely well for their positions. Taylor’s rebounding can spark easy buckets off “grab-and-go” situations:

Williams will be a key loss for a variety of reasons on this end, but Marshall should have enough in the cupboard to remain competitive on this end, especially if reserve Jeremy Dillon or freshman Wyatt Fricks can provide some depth minutes.

Bottom Line: With Kinsey and Taylor at the helm, Marshall’s transition-heavy offense will remain quite difficult to defend, and watch out for breakout years for sophomores Early and Anochili-Killen. D’Antoni has found a style that can win consistently, and he’s recruited to that specific system with athletic wings and mobile big men. I have some slight concerns that Marshall may be one guard short, preventing them from entering tier 1 here, but another top half finish seems to be a near-certainty.

5. North Texas

Key Returners: Mardrez McBride, Thomas Bell (extra year), Rubin Jones, Abou Ousmane, JJ Murray (extra year), Jahmiah Simmons (injury)
Key Losses: Javion Hamlet, Zachary Simmons, James Reese (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Tylor Perry (JUCO), Hameir Wright (Washington), Rasheed Browne (Texas A&M-CC), Bryce Zephir (JUCO), Matthew Stone, Aaron Scott, Chris Morgan

Lineup:

Outlook: The Green has been getting meaner and meaner under Grant McCasland’s savvy leadership, and it reached its Meanest in March, rattling off five straight postseason wins to give North Texas its first NCAA Tournament win in program history (and just its 4th NCAA appearance ever, as well). McCasland has now spent five seasons as a Division I head coach, and in those, he has registered:

• The 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 6th best seasons at North Texas in the KenPom era (out of 25)

• The 2nd best season at Arkansas State in the KenPom era (also out of 25)

Oh, and he also went 55-12 at Division II Midwestern State with two Elite Eight appearances in two seasons at the school. McCasland is very clearly a star-in-the-making on the sideline, and I say this with no malice to the North Texas fanbase: please cherish him while you can, because the 44-year-old appears to be destined for a power conference job in the near future.

For now, though, McCasland will continue to roam the sidelines of the Super Pit, and though he lost multiple vital pieces from last year’s record-setting squad, the foundation is too strong – and the newcomers too talented – for the Mean Green to fade back into obscurity. McCasland has grinded UNT’s tempo to a halt the last two seasons, as a lack of quality depth has limited his ability to run. Even without coach-on-the-floor Javion Hamlet running the show, that could change this year, as McCasland’s deep group of newcomers should complement the returning core and allow him to use more of his bench if he so chooses.

Hamlet was the heart and soul of last year’s team, especially on offense, and diverting the ball-handling duties elsewhere will be McCasland’s first order of business. Another junior college star, national champion and NJCAA tournament MVP Tylor Perry (get ready for the Tyler Perry joke, it’s coming), looks primed to fill the role, and the jet-quick Perry was hyper-efficient from all over the floor last season (53/46/80 shooting splits):

Like Hamlet, he finds ways to profoundly impact the game even on the rare occasions when his outside shot is not falling, and again – he was the best player on the best JUCO team. He lacks Hamlet’s size, though, and starting him next to Mardrez McBride could leave the backcourt exposed against bigger/stronger guards.

Fellow newcomer Rasheed Browne is another option; he stuffed the stat sheet at the JUCO level before missing most of last season with injury at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and is probably the purest “point guard” on the roster. In-house options McBride and Rubin Jones filled different roles last year (McBride a low-usage sniper, Jones a bigger wing creator), and the team probably functions best if they can remain entrenched in those spots (though Jones has considerable upside as a freshman-to-sophomore leap candidate).

The other pressing concern is in the paint, where Zachary Simmons had developed into a legitimate low post threat within the team’s four-out offense. Again, McCasland will look at a transfer (Hameir Wright from Washington) and a returner (Abou Ousmane) for the gig. Ousmane’s game is far more comparable to Simmons, but Wright is the clear favorite jump center after starting 81 of 122 career games in the Pac-12. Wright is a different player, though – he prefers to face up offensively, floating around the perimeter (he took 100 threes to just 45 twos last year). The bouncy Wright offers higher defensive upside, which definitely matters to McCasland; one wonders if he will experiment with both on the floor together at times thanks to Wright’s willingness to launch from the perimeter.

Three fifth-year seniors round out the veterans, and Thomas Bell is actually the leading returning scorer, a smooth-shooting southpaw who is also an active cutter off the ball with real toughness:

Note: that clip also shows how important Hamlet’s off-the-bounce game was late in the shot clock.

Bell hit huge shots in OT of both the C-USA final win over WKU and the NCAA victory over Purdue. To this point, the athletic Bell has been a complementary piece, but he may step into a larger role following the loss of Hamlet, Simmons, and James Reese. JJ Murray is the resident defensive pest off the bench, rarely looking to shoot offensively, while Jahmiah Simmons has been a little-used piece with injury issues who at least has some defensive versatility. If McCasland does opt to dip deeper into his bench, freshmen Aaron Scott and Matthew Stone and JUCO transfer Bryce Zephir have chances to earn minutes. Scott has sparked some excitement as a possibly under-recruited gem, and Zephir is positively lethal from beyond the arc, a favorite trait of McCasland’s.

Bottom Line: With McCasland on the sideline, North Texas is always going to be a formidable out. He’s a terrific motivator and master game-planner, often singling out the opponent’s worst shooter and forcing them to lob up shot after shot, and his compact and disciplined man-to-man guards the paint and forces a ton of poor mid-range jumpers. Plus, he has also assembled a deep and talented roster in Denton with a possible star newcomer in Perry, and the Super Pit should once again be a House of Payne for opponents (there was no chance I could resist a Tyler Perry joke). Excitement around the program is (justifiably) sky high, and if some of the newcomers can help replace the impacts of mainstays Hamlet, Simmons, and Reese, then the Green will remain quite Mean.

6. UTEP

Key Returners: Souley Boum, Jamal Bieniemy, Keonte Kennedy, Tydus Verhoeven, Christian Agnew
Key Losses: Bryson Williams (transfer), Efe Odigie (transfer), Kristian Sjolund (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jamari Sibley (Georgetown), Jorell Saterfield (JUCO), Bonke Maring (JUCO), Alfred Hollins (Oregon St.), Kezza Giffa, Kevin Kalu

Lineup:

Outlook: UTEP is now on its fourth coach since Tony Barbee last took the program to an NCAA Tournament, but with Abilene Christian’s old boss now on the sidelines, is it possible the Miners have struck…Golding????

What Joe Golding accomplished in Abilene is irrefutably impressive. He brought the program through a Division I transition, elevating it into a powerhouse in the league and even pulling a March upset over big brother Texas. He also may be the man most responsible for earning his new gig: by beating Texas, it helped induce a change at Texas (Shaka was not fired, but…), who then turned to Chris Beard as the new coach, who hired Rodney Terry to join his staff, which left an opening at…you guessed it, UTEP! (Note: apologies to the Twitter user who sent this to us – I searched our old DMs and could not find it, if you read this and recognize it as you, let us know and I’ll credit you in here)

Unlike Abilene Christian, UTEP is definitely not going through a D-I transition, meaning Golding has a chance to win much more quickly, especially given the talent that Terry – a master of the transfer portal – left behind. Golding will begin his transformation of the team on the defensive end, where relentless perimeter pressure in an aggressive man-to-man fueled Abilene’s top 30 unit on that end (per KenPom’s AdjDE). A stable of tiny, lightning-quick guards consistently made opponents uncomfortable:

At UTEP, Golding instead has an array of long athletes on the perimeter to incorporate into his style.

Souley Boum, Jamal Bieniemy, and Keonte Kennedy are all back after starting every game last season, and each guy should be capable of slotting into Golding’s scheme. All three have the quickness to corral ball-handlers, and they’ve each flashed the anticipation and hands necessary to generate mayhem for opponents. Plus, reserve guard Christian Agnew is capable of being a pest on the ball, as well, giving Golding even more options when matching up with smaller foes.

Most of Golding’s ACU teams rolled out two traditional bigs, thus clogging the paint while three guards buzzed around the perimeter like gnats. That likely will not be the case given UTEP’s roster, where transfers Jamari Sibley (Georgetown) and Alfred Hollins (Oregon St.) will offer rangier athleticism at that spot. Hollins has been a disruptive defender in Wayne Tinkle’s zone schemes before, and Sibley oozes potential on that end given his physical tools. Neither player saw the court much last season, but Golding is the kind of coach that can unlock their abilities after a change of scenery.

The ultimate cherry on top of a pressure sundae for any coach looking to wreak havoc on the perimeter is a rim protector on the back end to clean up any mistakes, and UTEP appears to have one in Tydus Verhoeven. He was one of the best shot-blockers in the country at Duquesne as a freshman, but Terry’s scheme was more focused on securing the defensive glass, and Verhoeven also played next to another true post player in Bryson Williams. Now back in a traditional center spot, Verhoeven could once again emerge as an emphatic enforcer; just ask Kansas, who saw five shots swatted by the bouncy Verhoeven in a near-upset last March:

Depth behind Verhoeven is shaky, though, with JUCO transfer Bonke Maring and freshman Kevin Kalu the only sizable bodies on the roster. Maring was a stout rebounder for a middling Blinn College team last year, while Kalu offers more upside with his dunk/block everything mindset – although his skill level still leaves a lot to be desired.

Therein lies the question marks for Golding’s first UTEP team. At Abilene Christian, he ran one of the most post-heavy offenses in the country, playing through guys like Kolton Kohl, Joe Pleasant, and Clay Gayman on the block in an inside-out, high-low attack. Barring significant development from Verhoeven or Maring, the Miners lack the kind of interior threats to optimize that system, especially with Sibley/Hollins offering more versatile games at power forward.

Golding will need to shift his style to a more guard-oriented one, though his Wildcats ran almost zero pick-and-roll (only Bellarmine ran less, per Synergy). Expect a ton of off-ball motion unless Golding makes really drastic changes. Boum can be a game-breaker coming off screens with his dynamic slashing and shooting abilities, and Bieniemy is a steady ball-handler who could blossom in a better system (he was excellent as a freshman for Oklahoma back in 2018-19). Agnew is all downhill driving, meaning the offense will need an influx of shooting – and that could come from top JUCO prospect Jorell Saterfield, the leading scorer for an excellent Ranger College squad who knocked down 47.1% of his 102 triples. Lefty Frenchman Kezza Giffa may also get to play some if his creativity translates immediately.

Bottom Line: Like almost every new coach, Golding has spoken ad nauseum about instilling a culture early on at UTEP. The intense defensive style should carry over from his Abilene Christian days, and with the array of athletes all over the roster, UTEP could be a tremendous team on that end of the floor. The issues are on the offensive end, where the system and personnel do not seem to match up as well (Bryson Williams would have flourished under Golding, sigh). The talent, defense, and coaching upgrade are enough to elevate UTEP, but the ceiling may be capped by a funky offense that could experience some droughts.

7. Old Dominion

Key Returners: Kalu Ezikpe, A.J. Oliver, Jaylin Hunter, Austin Trice (extra year), Mekhi Long, Jason Wade (injury)***
Key Losses: Malik Curry (transfer), Joe Reece (transfer), Xavier Green (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Charles Smith IV (SMU), C.J. Keyser (NC Central), Stephan Morris (JUCO), D’Angelo Stines, Jadin Johnson, Imo Essien

*** - Wade is coming off a torn ACL in January 2020 and then a torn Achilles in November 2020. Per Coach Jeff Jones, he may not be ready for the season.

Lineup:

Outlook: The beat goes on in Norfolk, where Old Dominion bounced back from an uncharacteristically shaky 2019-20 season to again ascend towards the top of Conference USA – a familiar place under Jeff Jones. The longtime Division I coach has now been in charge at ODU for eight seasons, and he has never finished below .500 in conference, tallying a ridiculous 94-46 record in C-USA play over that span (67.1%). Granted, he has only made one NCAA Tournament since his arrival, but in a one-bid league, it’s frankly unfair to measure success via that barometer. Jones’ teams have a clear, definable identity, and it has consistently paid off over time.

Under Jones, the paint has become the Monarchs’ dominion. He covets size and physicality at every spot but point guard, and rest assured, he would love a 6’4 tank engine in that spot as well if you know of one. This roster fits that reputation perfectly, with a deep wing corps and frontcourt surrounding an adept (but smaller) creator. SMU transfer Charles Smith IV is the perfect addition on the wing to join AJ Oliver, Jason Wade (if healthy), and Mekhi Long, giving Jones four switchable 6’5 to 6’7 options, and the big man rotation is loaded with production and versatility with Kalu Ezikpe, Austin Trice, and JUCO transfer Stephan Morris. The Monarchs will come in waves, ideally allowing them to wear opponents down over the course of games.

If the rim is ODU’s Pride Rock and inside the arc is the Pride Lands, then beyond the arc has become the Elephant Graveyard (ODU’s logo features a lion, so a The Lion King metaphor seems fair). Perimeter shooting is simply not a priority under Jones, and opponents have taken advantage of his compact defenses on the other end, significantly out-producing the Monarchs from that range:

That disparity has only gotten worse in recent years, and though Jones is optimistic about the collection of shooters he has, the 2021-22 Monarchs may once again lack prolific perimeter production outside of NCCU transfer CJ Keyser, Smith, and Oliver.

Keyser is also important as another option to helm the offense, along with junior Jaylin Hunter and a trio of freshmen: Imo Essien, Jadin Johnson, and D’Angelo Stines. Jones’ system is often heavily reliant on a single initiator in the backcourt (Malik Curry last year, Ahmad Caver and Trey Freeman in years past), so having one or more of those guys step into stardom would be vital. Hunter was deferential as an underclassman, but given his experience in the system, he appears the most likely to take the role. Keyser, whose career began at Wichita State, scuffled somewhat at NCCU last year as COVID gutted the team’s season, but he has an expansive offensive game capable of racking up points from all three levels. Of the rookies, Essien is probably the most capable ball-handler, though Stines may also earn minutes due to his shooting prowess.

Interestingly, Jones has steadily increased his team’s tempo over the years, morphing from one of the most deliberate teams in the country to one that is much closer to the middle of the pack. Jones has talked about adding offensive punch this offseason, and continuing to let his team run a little in transition would certainly provide a boost. However, that might sacrifice what has become the Monarchs’ bread-and-butter: the disciplined, physical half court defense.

Jones has largely been a man-to-man disciple, but he’s brought out more zone in recent years when his teams have lacked a truly dominant rim protector (a la Trey Porter or Brandan Stith). Ezikpe evolved into an elite shot-blocker last season to go along with his impressive post game, and a key to ODU’s success this year will be keeping him on the floor despite foul trouble demons. However, the on/off numbers make a much stronger case for Trice as the featured big man:

Ezikpe is unquestionably talented, but a key challenge for Jones will be getting the Monarchs to perform as a more cohesive unit when he is on the floor.

Bottom Line: Though Jeff Jones has consistently won with an impenetrable defense and sometimes-stagnant offense, he has loosened up the reins of late while bringing in intriguing pieces. This ODU team fits the physical profile of a Jones-era squad, but if Keyser and Smith can add legitimate offensive punch and compensate for the loss of Malik Curry, then the Monarchs could continue their steady improvement on that end. Given the consistency the program has had under Jones, 8th or 9th is towards the low end of outcomes for ODU, but the middle of C-USA looks as strong as it ever has thanks to extra years, transfer additions, and coaching changes.

8. Charlotte

Key Returners: Jahmir Young, Brice Williams, Marvin Cannon (extra year), Jared Garcia, Jackson Threadgill
Key Losses: Jordan Shepherd (transfer), Milos Supica, Jhery Matos
Key Newcomers: Clyde Trapp (Clemson), Musa Jallow (Ohio St.), Robert Braswell (Syracuse), Austin Butler (Holy Cross), Perry Francois (Texas A&M-CC), Daylen Berry, Isaiah Folkes

Lineup:

Outlook: Tony Bennett rattles off wins at Virginia and even won a national championship. Ritchie McKay has turned Liberty into the class of the Big South, winning three straight regular season titles and advancing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. So with an incredibly similar system/background, why has Ron Sanchez not gotten Charlotte on the same trajectory?

It’s a tricky question. Heading into last season, the 49ers looked like they were on the proper path: from 2019 to 2020, the 49ers had doubled their win total, both overall (eight to 16) and in conference (five to 10). Sanchez returned a solid core – particularly a capable backcourt duo – and seemed poised to continue the improvement arc. At the end of January, Charlotte was 9-7 overall, 5-3 in the league…and then the entire team fell into a deep, dark sinkhole. The 49ers did not win another game the rest of the way, losing nine straight and tumbling 70 spots in KenPom’s rankings. They struggled on both sides of the ball, unable to establish the defensive identity that usually comes with the pack line scheme while also getting sloppy offensively.

In response, Sanchez brought in a bevy of transfers, and the upside of those additions has me feeling like a single Michael Scott:

The rest of C-USA was extremely active this offseason, so climbing into the upper echelon of the league will be a tall task, but having the 49ers slotted at 8th is much more a vote of confidence in the conference than a dig at Charlotte, considering the talent here.

Sanchez’s priority will likely be fixing the defense, a unit that melted down without any real size in the paint and limited athleticism on the wing. The former is still a minor concern, despite the additions of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi transfer Perry Francois and redshirt freshman Aly Khalifa to join Jared Garcia, but Sanchez bolstered the latter into a legitimate strength. Power conference additions Musa Jallow (Ohio St.), Clyde Trapp (Clemson), and Robert Braswell (Syracuse) all bring impressive athleticism, and Jallow in particular is a terror when he’s fully healthy (injuries impacted his career in Columbus). Trapp played for an excellent defensive coach in Brad Brownell, and Braswell started to blossom for the Orange down the stretch. Assuming they quickly buy into the pack line’s defensive principles, they will quickly elevate the 49ers’ defense.

If one does not, it will likely be because Sanchez cannot keep Holy Cross transfer Austin Butler off the court. The Crusaders were not winning any awards last year, but Butler is terrific: a jack-of-all-trades offensively with the strength to guard multiple positions. He committed to a structured system at HC before a coaching change, and he should fit in well to Charlotte’s plans on both ends of the court. Incumbents Brice Williams, Marvin Cannon, and standstill shooter Jackson Threadgill will all still be in the mix for playing time (especially Williams after a strong performance last year), but the talented newcomers unlock a higher ceiling.

No one will be more thrilled to see the infusion of new pieces than Jahmir Young, the 49ers’ floor leader and top returning scorer. Young never left the court last year (18th nationally in percentage of minutes played), and the smooth lefty will once again be the 49ers’ primary ball-handler. His offensive game continued to evolve last year, allowing him to rank 6th in C-USA in usage, and he shot an impressive 143 free throws in just 24 games thanks to his terrific burst and crafy finishing:

He has traditionally worked next to another ball-handler, which likely means Trapp steps into that duty after displaying impressive playmaking as a Tiger. Sanchez primarily deploys the mover-blocker system that Bennett built his program with, but he will also allow Young and Trapp to operate in ball screens, an area that Charlotte excelled in last year. Jallow has largely been a non-entity on offense to this point in his career, but he’s a capable slasher, so he could be a threat curling around screens.

Charlotte’s bigs do not play significant roles offensively, so Sanchez will not ask much of Francois and Garcia (the two most likely to earn minutes), but they do need to be able to screen. All three of Francois, Garcia, and Khalifa have the wide frames to make an impact in this regard; it’s primarily a matter of embracing that role. Garcia did flash some offensive game last year, and if Braswell ends up as a “blocker” in the 49ers’ scheme, that would give Charlotte some scoring pop in the frontcourt, but the burden will fall much heavier on Young, Trapp, Butler, and the rest of the backcourt.

Bottom Line: After the horrid February/March that Charlotte put together in his third season, Sanchez needs a bounce-back performance this year to quell fan uneasiness. Fortunately, he brought in enough impact newcomers to make that possible, but that also raises fan expectations. It seems inevitable that Charlotte will improve from last year, but the pressing question is how many more wins that translates to in a highly competitive C-USA.

9. Rice

Key Returners: Quincy Olivari, Max Fiedler, Travis Evee, Riley Abercrombie, Chris Mullins, Mylyjael Poteat, Cameron Sheffield
Key Losses: Cavit Ege Havsa
Key Newcomers: Carl Pierre (UMass), Terrance McBride (Cornell), Damion McDowell, Jaden Geron

Lineup:

Outlook: Is the tide turning at Rice, or are the Owls simply becoming more entertaining?

That’s the overarching question with Scott Pera entering his 5th season at the helm. Rice has become an occasional offensive juggernaut thanks to its crisp ball movement and stable of potent perimeter shooters, and this year looks loaded with the kind of players to execute that style with precision. However, the Owls have yet to finish .500 or better in Conference USA under Pera – hence the opening inquiry.

The Owls have repeatedly been undone by their flimsy defense; they’ve ranked 14th of 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency for two straight years in C-USA play. Pera has sacrificed high-level athleticism and size for skill on the offensive end, and despite his best efforts to mix schemes and tweak his style, Rice has not yet been able to assemble a competent defense under his leadership. The “all over the place” nature of his zone usage indicates his efforts to find something that works:

Pera frequently rolls out four guard lineups with the smooth-shooting Cameron Sheffield as the nominal power forward, and with limited size/quickness on the floor, he has opted for a conservative style that avoids gambling and attempts to keep foes in front.

That’s easier said than done for the smallish backcourt, though, and the Rice guards also offer little resistance against opposing 3P shooters. Unsurprisingly, Rice ranked last in C-USA in turnover rate and defensive 3P%, and despite the best efforts of Max Fiedler inside, it also finished 12th in defensive rebound rate. Pera’s transfer additions do not solve any of these problems, so either freshman wings Jaden Geron and Damion McDowell Jr. provide immediate respite, or Rice will desperately need internal improvement from its copious returning pieces (hint: it’s the latter).

Enough about defense here, because the featured attraction in Houston is an up-tempo, bombs-away offense that puts huge amounts of stress on the defense by flooding the court with gunners around a skilled big man in Fiedler. Chris Mullins or Travis Evee will bring the ball up the floor, but the attack is really facilitated by Fiedler, whose sky-high basketball IQ is consistently on display with the way he picks out teammates:

Look where both of those passes are too — right in the shooting pocket.

He’s equally adept at finding cutters when defenses stretch out to blanket the perimeter. He’s incredibly aware of where his skilled teammates are located, and without Cavit Ege Havsa around anymore (another clever passer), Pera will run even more action through his savvy post man.

The rotation does not lack for playmakers, though. Mullins and Evee are capable with the ball in their hands, particularly as passers out of the pick-and-roll, and fellow lethal wing Quincy Olivari can catch fire in a hurry if a defender is not glued to his side. Additionally, Pera added Carl Pierre and Terrance McBride from the portal, both of whom seem to fit the system perfectly. Pierre has already canned 286 triples in his career at 38.4%, and McBride is a deft passer and crafty cutter with a developing jump shot of his own.

That’s already a veritable fleet of bombers, but Pera can also trot out “five-out” lineups with 6’10 Aussie Riley Abercrombie at center. Rather surprisingly, those lineups held up reasonably well on defense, but running them out for extended periods of time might be playing with fire. Evee, Olivari, and Sheffield all saw notable spikes in their 3P% when Fiedler was on the court, as well, evidencing his importance as a distributor from either post or even the top of the key. Sheffield came on as the season progressed, going from a little-used reserve through early January to a vital starter down the stretch.

Mylyjael Poteat is a more conventional backup in the paint, offering a “bully ball” presence at 260 pounds who can draw contact and get Rice easy points at the free throw line. He’s plenty capable of filling Fiedler’s role on the glass, but he lacks the feel for the game necessary to be a distributor from that spot.

Bottom Line: Rice may struggle to climb the standings without any clear routes to improving the defense, but the Owls should continue to be a work of art offensively when the players are moving with a purpose off the ball and Fiedler is picking apart defenses. Considering how reliant they are on the three-ball, they will have some erratic outcomes, and they will likely still struggle to score against the most athletic defenses (see: Louisiana Tech, UAB, Western Kentucky). Still, the upside is high, and if Pera does find a way to tighten the screws on D, the Owls could make a sizable jump considering the offensive talent he’s assembled.

Tier 3

10. Florida Atlantic

Key Returners: Bryan Greenlee, Michael Forrest, Everett Winchester (extra year), Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Giancarlo Rosado
Key Losses: Jailyn Ingram (transfer), Karlis Silins (pro), Kenan Blackshear (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Bitumba Baruti (East Carolina), Vladislav Goldin (Texas Tech), Brandon Weatherspoon (JUCO), Tre Carroll, Bogdan Zimonjic

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s the metronome of C-USA! In three years since Coach Dusty May’s arrival, the Owls have been a fixture in the middle of the standings, floating around the 175ish range in KenPom (aka the national middle). The Owls are steady, but some semi-surprising departures have limited the ceiling this season, barring significant development from an admittedly promising backcourt.

The Owls turned down a chance to travel up the Florida coast to Daytona Beach and play in the CBI last year after a grueling season of COVID protocols and stoppages, but even without postseason validation, it was arguably May’s best year in Boca Raton. A dominant paint duo controlled the glass on both ends, but after both Jailyn Ingram (grad transfer) and Karlis Silins (graduated early, pro in Latvia) departed, May is left with an unproven frontcourt – and a choice to make stylistically.

May has shown a willingness to let his team push tempo offensively over the past three years, and with multiple capable ball-handlers lined up on the depth chart, that trend could continue once again. The tandem of Bryan Greenlee and Michael Forrest complement each other well, with Greenlee more of a ball-dominant player and Forrest an adept scorer off the ball, and both should have the freedom to push in transition. Greenlee’s quickness can be deadly, and Forrest does not need to be fully set to rain in treys:

The roster has plenty of other pieces capable of playing a faster tempo, including a trio of rising sophomore guards in Nicholas Boyd, Johnell Davis, and Alijah Martin, all of whom acquitted themselves well in limited minutes last year. Bonus year forward Everett Winchester, ECU transfer Bitumba Baruti, and freshman Tre Carroll are also well-equipped to play in the open floor thanks to their athleticism, and JUCO guard Brandon Weatherspoon adds another wing sniper for defenses to worry about finding.  

Greenlee and Boyd will handle the lion’s share of the ball-handling duties, but a primary point guard is not as paramount in May’s motion offense, which decentralizes the playmaking across the roster. Without Ingram and Silins as focal points in the paint, the offense may become more jump shot reliant, though May does have a bevy of options inside to pair with Baruti, Winchester, and Carroll.

Madiaw Niang is a fan favorite for his constant activity level, but his offensive skill level is reminiscent of a South Beach partygoer at 4am, so running any action through him is a non-starter. Dardan Kapiti is in a similar pickle, but sophomores Giancarlo Rosado and Vladislav Goldin (a Texas Tech transfer) at least offer more offensive upside. Still, neither has even seen the court much to this point in their careers, so the development curve may be steep for them, as well. Defensively, FAU had an elite rim defense, allowing foes to shoot just 51.3% last year per Hoop-Math, the 9th-best rate in the country, so Niang and Kapiti – the rim protectors of the group – will certainly be asked to provide some minutes.

Thus, the scoring burden will lean heavily on Greenlee, Forrest, and the rest of the guards, with Boyd, Weatherspoon, and Serbian freshman Bogdan Zimonjic providing quite a bit of shooting – if they can defend well enough to earn big minutes. Greenlee and Forrest often deferred to the big men and departed wing Kenan Blackshear, but May will need them both to be more assertive this year. Though FAU had some turnover issues, the Owls usually take quality shots under May, and the fourth-year boss has assembled a roster capable of knocking them down.

Baruti and Winchester are wild cards because of their size and skill sets. Neither has scored efficiently to this point in their careers, but both have hints of matchup problems in their games. Winchester could really help the transition attack with his ability to grab-and-go off the defensive glass, and Baruti flashed a jumper last year to go with his highly disruptive defense. Lineups where they play together could be tough to defend.

Bottom Line: We’ve largely come to know what to expect with FAU: a solid, disciplined man-to-man defense coupled with a well-executed motion attack on the other end. Still, plenty of other C-USA teams loaded up on transfer portal talent this offseason, and without the Ingram-Silins duo in the paint, the Owls may slide down the standings through no real fault of their own. The backcourt has the talent to prevent that if Greenlee, Forrest, Boyd, and Weatherspoon all take steps forward, but that’s no guarantee, and the frontcourt appears to lack the offensive firepower to compensate for any struggles. May is a good enough coach to where ranking him 10th feels inherently wrong, but several other “middle-of-the-pack teams feel slightly ahead of the Owls.

11. FIU

Key Returners: Tevin Brewer, Eric Lovett, Isaiah Banks, Javaunte Hawkins, Dante Wilcox
Key Losses: Antonio Daye (transfer), Radshad Davis, Dimon Carrigan (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Aquan Smart (Maryland), Seth Pinkney (Quinnipiac), Clevon Brown (Vanderbilt), Denver Jones (JUCO), Daniel Parrish (JUCO), Victor Hart (JUCO), CJ Kelley

Lineup:

Outlook: Rock, meet bottom. After a seemingly normal start to the season (albeit featuring a couple disappointing non-conference losses), the FIU Titanic proceeded to strike 14 consecutive icebergs to end the year. The Panthers played a series against nearby rival Florida Atlantic, and after narrowly losing at home, they got absolutely bombed on the road, losing by a seemingly-impossible 44 points. That turned out to be a part of a 14-game Division I losing streak to close the year, with nine of those defeats coming by double-digits (and a second 40-point loss coming at home to UTSA on February 6th).

FIU was perfectly acceptable – dare I even say decent? – in Jeremy Ballard’s first two seasons, tallying a 39-27 (19-17) record. He seemed like a solid young coach with a clear identity (frenetic on both ends) and had a decent roster. So what the hell happened?

If forced to really guess, I’d say the locker room had to have had some issues. Yes, the injury bug bit the Panthers some last year, but not severely enough to justify the 14-game atrocity that occurred, so it seems like something else was at play. We are not totally privy to that information, though, so let’s stick with on the court failures.

The most notable storyline there is the collapse of the defense, where Ballard’s pressure schemes did not manage to make foes as uncomfortable as in seasons past. Case in point: In 2019-20, Division I opponents shot 28.6% from beyond the arc, the 7th-lowest rate in the country. Last year, that swung to 36.9%, ranking FIU 316th instead. Put another way, opponents made a LOT more jumpers last year (#s include non-Division I opponents, so slightly different):

The regression monster is college basketball’s Godzilla. Vicious and destructive if it’s not on your side, life-saving if it is.

Of course, another crucial part of FIU’s defensive foundation has been relying on a monster shot-blocker at the back end of the pressure, giving the guards freedom to gamble on the perimeter without fear of surrendering a layup line. Unfortunately, Dimon Carrigan struggled to stay on the floor due to fouls and nagging injuries and the Panthers had no viable backup, undermining that strategy for large chunks of game time.

Ballard was not about to enter another season so thin up front. From the transfer portal, he nabbed dynamite shot-swatter Seth Pinkney from Quinnipiac, a ridiculously long-armed and mobile center who ranked 24th in the country in block rate last year, and Clevon Brown from Vanderbilt, an oft-injured but effective big who posted solid block numbers in the SEC. Freshman Mohamed Sanogo is likely seen as a late-blooming project for future years, but his length and athleticism certainly appeal to Ballard, and after a year of prep school at famed Putnam Science Academy, he could be ready sooner rather than anticipated.

Buzzing around those bigs will be a cadre of guards and wings, trapping all over the court and scrambling to recover to shooters. Ballard wants to force opponents into the waiting arms of his big men rather than allow wide open jumpers, and if opponents decide to take quick and/or bad shots, that’s great too. Tevin Brewer will be the primary on-ball menace, a 5’8 blur who was one of the few Panthers to remain healthy all season. Wings Eric Lovett and Isaiah Banks were not so fortunate, missing six and 17 games respectively, and FIU clearly missed their versatility when they were out. The added depth at center should allow Dante Wilcox to play his more natural role at smallball four, giving Ballard a significantly better defensive lineup if paired with both Lovett and Banks, and newcomers Victor Hart and CJ Kelley can also provide some minutes there if needed.

The Panthers’ roster construction should jumpstart an offense that was the worst of Ballard’s tenure, particularly shooting the ball. In C-USA play, FIU ranked dead last in both 3P% and FT%, and the former number was especially problematic seeing as the Panthers launch triples at one of the highest rates in the country. Two of the most harmful shooters, Antonio Daye and Radshad Davis, are gone, but the offense could use a boost from veterans Javaunte Hawkins and Petar Krivokapic, both of whom are on the court almost exclusively to shoot – you will not find a lower free throw rate nationally than Hawkins’ 1.7%.

FIU runs almost all spread pick-and-roll offensively, and Brewer is the straw that stirs the drink, constantly darting around ball screens and either pulling up if left open (he was FIU’s best shooter by far) or finding teammates dotting the perimeter. Ballard likes to play multiple ball-handlers (aka “playmakers” in his lexicon), so JUCO transfers Denver Jones and Daniel Parrish will both get significant run (and possibly even start); Jones was more productive and a far better shooter at his prior stop. Maryland transfer Aquan Smart also carries enticing pedigree, although he was essentially nailed to the bench after the season’s first six games. Still, he’s an explosive athlete and potentially useful creator, and he may leap frog both JUCO guards in the rotation.

Bottom Line: FIU should be healthier, deeper, and rejuvenated by a real offseason. Considering the way COVID protocols could put teams in an irredeemable rut, I’m inclined to throw out last season for squads that had an outlier-bad year, and the Panthers certainly qualify there compared to Ballard’s first two campaigns. With legitimate rim protection and more backcourt firepower, expect the Panthers to be much closer to the 2019 and 2020 versions of themselves, flying around on defense and slicing and dicing through the lane offensively, rather than the dismal dumpster fire that was 2021.

12. Southern Miss

Key Returners: Tyler Stevenson, Tae Hardy, Jaron Pierre, DeAndre Pinckney, Artur Konontsuk, Denijay Harris
Key Losses: LaDavius Draine (transfer), Justin Johnson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Isaih Moore (St. John’s), Walyn Napper (JUCO), Rashad Bolden

Lineup:

Outlook: Third time is the charm, right Jay?

Coach Jay Ladner’s Golden Eagles did not progress the way he might have hoped in a COVID-affected year, but if we follow the trend lines of his arc at Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Miss should start to tick upwards in year three. After Doc Sadler hustled out of town and left little in the cupboard, it was always going to take time to rebuild the program, and with significant pieces both returning to and joining the fold, the hints of optimism may start to creep in.

For Ladner, it will start on defense, as it always has. His teams play a compact man-to-man while mixing in a few zone looks, making a concerted effort to take away easy opportunities at the rim and force foes to score by shooting over the top. The Golden Eagles have not had a towering frontcourt in Ladner’s two seasons so far, but the addition of spindly journeyman Isaih Moore changes that, and combined with that compressed alignment, opponents will really struggle to score in the paint. USM also returns both starters in the frontcourt in Tyler Stevenson and DeAndre Pinckney; neither has the go-go-gadget arms that Moore does, but both are terrific on the defensive boards, and Pinckney is solid enough at the rim to slide over to center when Moore is on the bench. Along with Denijay Harris, the Golden Eagles should continue to take away the offensive glass as a route to scoring.

Thus, opponents are forced to bomb away from deep, and that they did, taking 45% of their shots from beyond the arc – the highest rate in Conference USA. USM survived that barrage in part because of its length on the perimeter, throwing out an army of taller guards capable of challenging jumpers. The duo of Tae Hardy and Jaron Pierre returns (unfortunately, Artur Konontsuk will miss the year with injury), and Jacksonville transfer Mo Arnold has decent size, as well. Ladner will have to incorporate smaller JUCO addition Walyn Napper into this rotation, but the hope is that Napper’s offensive contributions will outweigh any drop-off on the other end.

Both Napper and freshman Rashad Bolden will add some much-needed elements of quickness and off-the-bounce dynamism to the sometimes-stagnant attack. Without a dangerous primary creator, Ladner relied heavily on his motion system, attempting to generate shots via off-ball movement. Like the defense, though, the Golden Eagles were too tight in their spacing, leading to WAY too many mid-range jumpers. Per Hoop-Math, USM took 40% of its shots in the “2-point jumper” range, the 2nd-highest rate in the entire country. That took away from chances to shoot 3s, and although USM was not loaded with elite snipers, it still becomes a tough math problem when you give up way more triples than you take:

Combine that with the fact that the Golden Eagles struggled to get to the rim themselves, and it’s no surprise that they ranked a dismal 283rd nationally in effective field goal percentage.

Napper was mega-productive in junior college last year (20 PPG, 8 APG), and Ladner should give him and the fiery Bolden every chance to take over the offense. Ideally, they will put more stress on defenses with their vision and willingness to drive, opening up more areas for Pinckney, Moore, and Stevenson to operate. All three forwards are capable finishers inside and excel at getting to the charity stripe, the latter of which was a key to success for Ladner’s best teams at SELA.

Beyond Napper and Bolden, both Hardy and Pierre took on significant offensive roles on the perimeter during their first years with the program, and both players teased real shooting potential. Pierre seemed to hit the freshman wall last year, but his combination of size and shooting clearly had an impact:

Bolden and Napper should shift Hardy to the wing, possibly providing a positive domino effect to the offense.

Bottom Line: The roster is steadily improving, but for Southern Miss to make real gains in the C-USA standings, the Golden Eagles will need to knock down more shots – and turn more of those shots into 3s. The defense should be legit with Moore anchoring the paint, so Ladner can bank on that end of the floor being the bedrock, but building on that will take some marked progress on the offensive end.

13. UTSA

Key Returners: Jacob Germany, Cedrick Alley, Jordan Ivy-Curry, Erik Czumbel
Key Losses: Jhivvan Jackson, Keaton Wallace, Eric Parrish (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Darius McNeill (SMU), Dhieu Deing (JUCO), Aleu Aleu (JUCO), Josh Farmer, Lamin Sabally, Azavier Johnson

Lineup:

Outlook: It is often hard to specifically define “eras” for basketball teams, but that is not the case for UTSA. After four years, Coach Steve Henson faces the daunting challenge of moving on from the Jhivvan Jackson/Keaton Wallace era in San Antonio, both of whom have been pillars in his program from the day they arrived.

Combined, the two gunners appeared in 240 games (starting 198 of them), scored 4,631 points, made 713 of 2,010 three-pointers (35.4%), and racked up 641 assists, 1,051 rebounds, and 272 steals. The rarity of having two explosive scorers stick around for all four years makes the Jackson/Wallace pairing a unicorn, and Henson had mutated his style to try and best accommodate their skill sets.

Their departures leave Henson with all kinds of decisions on how to proceed. Does he maintain the transition-heavy attack that repeatedly put the ball in the hands of his playmakers? Or will he downshift the tempo and play a more defensive style, similar to how his Roadrunners played during his first season in San Antonio? Henson’s first team was also much less jump shot-reliant and more deliberate than the four Jackson/Wallace versions:

The current roster offers some hints, but the ultimate stylistic choices will be left to Henson and may not reveal themselves until *Luther Vandross voice* the ball is tipped…there you are…

A change in tempo and approach might be just what the doctor ordered for Jacob Germany, a physical 6’11 big man who has been a slightly odd fit in the Roadrunners’ road-running. Still, he emerged as a legitimate post scorer last year, ranking in the 85th percentile nationally per Synergy, though his total inability to pass (only 20 career assists in 1,042 minutes) makes it difficult to truly play through him as a featured option.

Germany is the only “true” big man on the roster, as veterans Phoenix Ford and Adrian Rodriguez are shorter, more burly, mobile options, and freshman Josh Farmer is an athletic, rangy forward with upside. Along with Farmer, newcomers Aleu Aleu, Lamin Sabally, and Dhieu Deing also lack bulk and appear to fit best into Henson’s transition-based attack (for the two readers who care: Sabally is the younger brother of WNBA star Satou Sabally of the Dallas Wings). In contrast, though, returning starter and former Houston transfer Cedrick Alley is a punishing physical presence who can score efficiently and make an impact guarding multiple positions defensively, and Lachlan Bofinger is a similarly aggressive player who played important minutes early in his freshman season.

The choice may ultimately depend on whether Henson feels he can hand the keys to the Ferrari to his new backcourt, most of which has not gotten significant reps on the ball to this point. Jordan Ivy-Curry showed terrific potential over the second half of last year, knocking down shots and taking advantage of the defensive attention paid to the Roadrunners’ dynamic duo, but stepping into a leading role would be a large leap for the sophomore.

SMU (and previously Cal) transfer Darius McNeill probably has the highest pedigree of the guards. He played some point at Cal back in 2017-18, and the lefty could end up taking over as the Roadrunners’ alpha. He’s had plenty of big games in his career already, and although he was limited by SMU’s COVID-shortened season and his own injuries last year, he has the talent to be a terrific C-USA initiator.

The other options are Erik Czumbel, who was the hoops equivalent of Jackson and Wallace’s administrative assistant the last two years, simply moving the ball when necessary, and Azavier Johnson, a late-blooming freshman with intriguing long-term upside and terrific size.

Bottom Line: Jackson and Wallace never attained the postseason success they would have liked, but they did give the Roadrunners their first stretch of legitimate success in the C-USA after a fallow period upon joining from the Southland (plus a year in the WAC). It’s up to Henson to build on the foundation that those two laid, and although it’s not entirely clear what direction it will go in, UTSA is unquestionably entering a new era in its basketball timeline.

Tier 5

14. Middle Tennessee

Key Returners: Jalen Jordan, Deandre Dishman, Donovan Sims (extra year), Eli Lawrence, Jared Coleman-Jones
Key Losses: Jordan Davis (transfer), Jo’Vontae Millner-Criss, Jayce Johnson (transfer), Dontrell Shuler (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Josh Jefferson (Green Bay), Justin Bufford (JUCO), Isaiah Turner (JUCO), Camryn Weston (JUCO), Teafale Leonard

Lineup:

Outlook: Digging into fan forums can vary widely in terms of usefulness. Oftentimes, the participants are blindly positive about their team, seeing only the rosiest of outcomes for every individual player and the squad as a whole. Occasionally, a beneficial nugget will present itself, making the ocean of optimism worth swimming through. And sometimes…you have the Middle Tennessee forum, which has morphed into a puddle of darkness and despair:

That’s a moderator on the site! He should be as reasonable/rational as anyone!

Unfortunately, it’s hard to blame the Blue Raider faithful. Kermit Davis had just one losing season in Murfreesboro during a storied 16-year tenure, going out with a bang that included two NCAA Tournament wins and four top-50 KenPom finishes in his last seven seasons. In Nick McDevitt’s three years, Middle Tennessee is 24-62 overall, 15-37 in C-USA play, underwhelming expectations every time:

Framed another way, Middle Tennessee is 30-49-1 against the spread over that span, a bottom five mark in the country.

This is almost all in stark contrast to McDevitt’s time at UNC Asheville, where he won consistently with aggressive defenses and impressive (for the Big South) offenses, often flush with outside shooting. Repairing the Blue Raiders will require an “inside-out” approach, though, as they were dominated in the paint last year. They ranked 338th nationally in 2P% on offense (43.1%) and 326th on defense (55.5%), a stunning disparity of -12.4% that was better than just seven other teams nationally – in the vicinity of such luminaries as Mississippi Valley St., Chicago St., and Portland.

To his credit, McDevitt has not stubbornly stuck with one ineffective offensive system, but the progressive decline over each of his seasons has been highly alarming. This year’s attack will often feature Green Bay transfer Josh Jefferson as the primary initiator, and the talented but enigmatic guard is at least capable of sparking the Blue Raiders as a multi-level scorer. Jalen Jordan and Donovan Sims are both back from last year’s debacle (Sims struggled with injury), and Jordan was often the lone bright spot thanks to his smooth perimeter stroke. Sims has the ignominious honor of seeing his offensive rating drop for three straight years, but that trio at least provides some upside with a blend of both playmaking and individual scoring. Camryn Weston, a combo guard from JUCO land, has a versatile floor game, though he does not bring the outside shooting that Jefferson, Jordan, and Sims can (on good days).  

Winning the war in the paint (or at least battling to a stalemate) is obviously more about the frontcourt, though, and McDevitt will need more from former Northwestern transfer Jared Coleman-Jones, a 6’10 big who somehow shot sub-40% from inside the arc. His playing time will come under fire from sophomore Christian Fussell, a still-developing project, and transfer Isaiah Turner, another of the three JUCO newcomers with winning pedigree. Turner lacks the strength that Coleman-Jones’ frame offers, so he may not be the answer this particular team needs, but he does have a promising outside shot that could open up the court for the guards and wings. DeAndre Dishman often had to man the center spot despite standing just 6’6, and though he is a gamer who will battle bigger opponents, that is not his natural position.

It seemed that McDevitt was trying to keep more shooting on the floor, playing guys like Elias King and Tyler Millin as stretch fours. Neither player proved enough of a threat to scare defenses, though, so perhaps Dishman will be allowed to slide over to his more natural spot. King, a former Mississippi State recruit, possesses real potential as a 6’8 wing with feathery touch, but his progress has stalled to this point. Eli Lawrence has had similar efficiency issues in his career, so the final member of the JUCO trio, Justin Bufford, will get every opportunity to earn playing time, as will top (only) recruit Teafale Leonard. Bufford was a key two-way presence for a 24-2 Shelton State team, while Leonard is King-esque in his combination of size and ball skills, both of which are things Middle Tennessee desperately needs.

Bottom Line: McDevitt simply has not been able to find the success here that he consistently had at UNC Ashville, and the fanbase is none too pleased with the Blue Raiders’ output during his tenure. He has dealt with his fair share of injury issues in that span, but the healthy players have also performed well below expectations (and often worse than they did at previous career stops). Barring unforeseen progress from across the roster, veterans and newcomers alike, I am unfortunately inclined to agree with Middle Tennessee forum user SpaceRaider – it looks bleak for Middle Tennessee this year.