-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Note: the tier divide is not very big, which is to say, teams 5-10 really are not far behind teams 1-4. The Colonial is as big a Parity Party as we have in college hoops.

Player of the Year: Jalen Ray, Sr., Hofstra
Coach of the Year: Mike Farrelly, Hofstra
Newcomer of the Year: Payton Willis, R Sr., Charleston
Freshman of the Year: Yuri Covington, William & Mary

Tier 1

1. Hofstra

Key Returners: Jalen Ray, Isaac Kante, Tareq Coburn, Omar Silverio
Key Losses: Desure Buie, Eli Pemberton
Key Newcomers: Shawndarius Cowart (JUCO), Zion Bethea, David Green, Vukasin Masic

Lineup:

Outlook: Joe Mihalich came to Hofstra during the 2013 offseason, fresh off an NIT appearance at Niagara and buoyed by a successful 15-year tenure that included a 61.2% conference winning percentage and two NCAA Tournament berths. In seven years at Hofstra, the success has continued, winning 62.1% of his Colonial contests, but the NCAA Tournament has eluded him despite several terrific squads in Hempstead. That should have changed this year, as his Pride finally won the CAA Tournament, only for everyone’s least favorite infectious disease to put a halt to the postseason. Two vital seniors also missed the chance to play on the sport’s largest stage, but fortunately for the Pride, several other key players are back to make another run at the Big Dance.

On a less optimistic note, they’ll have to do it without their veteran coach, as Mihalich has taken a medical leave of absence, leaving he program in the capable hands of longtime assistant Mike Farrelly. He’s been with Mihalich every step of the way in Hempstead (and several steps before that at Niagara), so there’s no doubt that Mihalich’s fingerprints will still be all over this year’s squad.

Hofstra ranked dead last in the country in bench minutes in 2020, as Mihalich identified a deadly five-man lineup and stuck with it as much as possible. Three of the five – Jalen Ray, Tareq Coburn, and Isaac Kante – are back, and they’ll form the core of another CAA championship contender. Ray and Coburn were dynamic off-ball scorers, both deadly from deep while also capable of getting to the rim. Kante, meanwhile, is the paint presence, a former Georgia transfer who is hyperactive on both ends of the glass and a terrific finisher amid all the space provided by the Pride’s four-out attack.

Even with those veterans, though, the Pride’s most important player might be highly touted JUCO transfer Shawndarius Cowart, a talented lefty lead guard who will need to help fill the shoes of Desure Buie. Hofstra’s offense is one of the most pick-and-roll-dominant in the entire country, consistently ranking near the top of the leaderboard in PnR usage and output:

The graduated Buie and Eli Pemberton take with them 353 of the team’s 484 possessions that ended via PnR ball-handler, with only Ray having meaningful experience – and he struggled (30th percentile, per Synergy). Cowart filled the stat sheet at Pensacola State, averaging 6.5 assist per game (to go with 13.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.3 steals) as the main offensive force for a team that lacked shooting. That won’t be an issue with Coburn and Ray dotting the perimeter, so he could flourish in Farrelly/Mihalich’s system.

After so sparingly tapping into the team’s reserves last year, Hofstra lacks other proven options, but returning guards Caleb Burgess and Omar Silverio both warrant mention. Burgess was nearly invisible last year, but he scored over 2,000 points for an excellent high school program (Moravian Prep), so he is plenty capable of making a leap. It’s an unfair comparison, but Justin Wright-Foreman was also basically a nobody during his first season in Hempstead (4.1 minutes per game), and like JWF, Burgess has the opportunity to seize a much bigger role as a sophomore (although Burgess has more of a defensive reputation at this stage). Silverio, meanwhile, is a former Rhode Island transfer who could blossom with a bigger role. Of the freshmen, David Green looks most intriguing, a powerfully built wing (6’7, 215 pounds) with guard skills who can score inside and out. Other players will have chances at smaller roles – Kevin Schutte and Stafford Trueheart will back up Kante, Zion Bethea and Vukasin Masic may get spot minutes in the backcourt – but expect Hofstra to go with a thin rotation again.

The other end is where Hofstra struggles, with all seven of Mihalich’s teams ranking significantly worse on that end, per KenPom. With his smaller, thin teams, he has taken to playing an amorphous blob of a 2-3 matchup zone, molding the shape of it to match the offense. Watch Buie (#4) and Pemberton (#5) near the free throw line, communicating and scrambling to match Northeastern’s shape:

It’s a funky scheme to learn, but it’s also unconventional to play against, so foes that rush shots may struggle compared to those that exercise patience and ball movement. The corners and the free throw line are most vulnerable, especially with overloads and/or if teams have a bigger wing/forward that can score one-on-one against Kante from that free throw area. Mihalich mixed in some other looks – 1-3-1 zone, both half court and three-quarters court, man-to-man, a 1-2-2 soft press – but that matchup zone seemed to be his preference, so expect something similar from Farrelly.

Bottom Line: With three of the team’s five key players back, Hofstra should be right back in the title hunt in a league that was crushed by graduations and, to a lesser extent, transfers. The swing factor will be if Cowart and/or Ray can fill the playmaking void left by Buie and Pemberton’s departures. If so, the pieces are here to have another prolific offense. The defense may struggle yet again, but Cowart’s quick hands are a solid replacement for Buie, so it’s simply a matter of being *good enough* to allow the offense to carry the Pride. You can bet the Pride will be motivated to win one for their ailing coach, as well.

2. Charleston

Key Returners: Brevin Galloway, Zep Jasper, Osinachi Smart, DeAngelo Epps
Key Losses: Grant Riller, Jaylen McManus, Sam Miller
Key Newcomers: Payton Willis (Minnesota), Lorenzo Edwards (St. Joseph’s), Cam Copeland (JUCO), D’Avian Houston, RJ Ogom, Keegan Harvey

Lineup:

Outlook: The Earl Grant Era in Charleston started as well as one could have hoped: he flipped an under-.500 team to a 25-game winner by his third year, made the NCAA Tournament in his fourth, and won 24 games again in in his fifth. Last year was a step back, both in terms of record (17-14) and KenPom ranking (slid to 170th, his worst since his first campaign), and it’d be a defensible position to say the Cougars underachieved last year. None of this is to say that Grant is a bad coach or in trouble by any stretch of the imagination – just that he may not be the wizard we thought the former Gregg Marshall assistant was early on in his tenure.

A large portion of the Cougars’ sneaky decline has been the defensive end, where Charleston has gotten worse every year for five straight seasons, going from 20th in 2016 to 229th last year. That excellent 2016 squad was able to pressure heavily and dominate the defensive glass; the 2020 team did neither. Grant’s scheme has stayed mostly the same – devoutly man-to-man, with an emphasis on taking away transition opportunities and forcing foes to execute in the half court – but the quality of personnel has declined. Brevin Galloway, a 215-pound guard, is a tremendous on-ball defender and ranked 14th nationally in steal rate, but his cohorts on the perimeter don’t impact the game the same way, and the team has not rebounded as a unit around its centers in recent past. Osinachi Smart is an intriguing anchor inside this season, but he’ll need help to turn the defensive glass from a weakness back to a strength.

The deterioration of defensive ability has been offset somewhat by added skill on the offensive end. Charleston’s offense has been better than its defense for three straight seasons now, in large part due to having star talents capable of dominating the scoring load and drawing massive defensive attention. For the past three years, Grant has had the luxury of returning a genuine high-usage offensive star (or stars), knowing he has a go-to source of points if things get dicey. This year, that is not the case:

The most recent of those stars, Grant Riller, was also the best of the bunch. As he became the offensive’s touchstone, Grant gave him more and more freedom to attack in isolation, and the Cougars ranked 17th and 34th in isolation frequency the past two seasons, per Synergy. Without such a singular talent, Grant will need to shift to a more balanced scheme. He does have a skilled three-headed guard monster in Galloway, quick complementary guard in Zep Jasper, and Minnesota grad transfer Payton Willis, all of whom can handle it a bit and are deadly from beyond the arc, so spreading the court and picking on weaker defenders via the pick-and-roll makes a lot of sense. Still, the Cougars will have to overcome not having Riller’s singular scoring ability, something they failed miserably at when he went to the bench:

That may be the worst two-way team splits for a single player I’ve ever seen in five years of writing previews, so the cause for alarm is legitimate.  

Depth is also a serious question for a roster with only three proven rotation players returning. The nominal power forward spot is completely up for grabs, with grad transfer Lorenzo Edwards likely battling JUCO transfer Cam Copeland, redshirt freshman Dontavious King, undersized sophomore DeAngelo Epps , and freshman RJ Ogom for the starting spot. The more experienced Edwards and Copeland are the most likely candidates, but Grant is high on his younger players, as well. True freshman Keegan Harvey or redshirt junior Samba Ndiaye will need to back up Smart, and although both come from superior backgrounds (Harvey played at Montverde Academy, Ndiaye at Sunrise Christian and then Western Carolina), neither is proven nor a lock to contribute. And in the backcourt, sophomore Brenden Tucker was an efficiency nightmare, so he’ll need to show drastic improvement to beat out lauded freshman De’Avian Houston for minutes, and Copeland has the versatility to swing to the backcourt, as well. Houston is especially known for his defensive intensity, which could make him stand out early.   

Bottom Line: With no real returning star on which to rely offensively and some questions on the defensive end, Charleston faces a daunting year. Grant is a smart coach and understood the importance of bringing in some impact newcomers, taking as many transfers (three) as he had combined in his first six years at the helm. If Willis, Edwards, and Copeland (and maybe even Houston) can contribute right away, the Cougars will have offensive balance, and Galloway, Jasper, and Smart know the system. Charleston loses an NBA player in Riller and struggled at times last season, but I’ll bet on Grant to stabilize things and keep the Cougars in the thick of the balanced CAA race.

3. Northeastern

Key Returners: Tyson Walker, Shaq Walters, Greg Eboigbodin, Jason Strong
Key Losses: Jordan Roland, Bolden Brace, Maxime Boursiquot (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Chris Doherty (Notre Dame)***, Coleman Stucke, J’Vonne Hadley, Jahmyl Telfort, Alexander Nwagha

*** - needs a waiver to play right away - otherwise, eligible at semester

Lineup:

Outlook: Even Bill Coen might call last year a slight disappointment for the Huskies. With a relatively experienced team and an out-and-out star in Jordan Roland leading the offensive attack, Northeastern floated along as a .500 team all season, going 6-6 in the non-conference and 9-9 in league play. A run to the CAA Tournament championship game nearly salvaged the meandering campaign, but the Huskies ultimately fell to a tremendous Hofstra team, depriving Coen of his second straight NCAA Tournament bid and third in six years.

Without Roland and fellow senior stalwart Bolden Brace, Coen now faces a daunting rebuilding task, particularly on the offensive end. Roland and Brace were two of the country’s most efficient all-around shooters, with Roland flirting with the 50/40/90 club on high volume and Brace not far behind; the two ranked 72nd and 126th nationally in true shooting percentage. Roland played a ton of minutes last year, and in the rare instances where he sat, the offense bottomed out:

Roland ranked 43rd nationally in percentage of shots taken while on the court, so filling that void has to be Coen’s first priority. He’ll turn to sophomore Tyson Walker, an All-Rookie honoree last year and a burgeoning star in his own right. He’s a different kind of player than Roland, though; he’s a quicker, more attack-oriented player who can set the table for others, and he lacks the same kind of pure shooting stroke. He’ll need to develop as a scorer; he ranked in the 35th percentile last year in pick-and-rolls, a far cry from Roland’s scintillating mark in the 97th percentile.

Walker isn’t the only offensive question mark, though. No other returner made more than 16 threes (that was athletic wing Shaq Walters), and Coen may have to shift focus away from a perimeter game that had become a huge strength, even with an impressive incoming class. Freshmen J’Vonne Hadley and Coleman Stucke should both play immediately thanks to their bucket-getting prowess; Hadley can shoot but is more of a versatile scorer, while the Canadian Stucke is an absolutely lights-out perimeter threat. Jahmyl Telfort, who comes from the same prep school as Walker, is more in the Walters mold as an athletic presence on the wing.

The one thing we can count on with Coen is that his team’s will play smart – that means shot selection, feeding the right guys, putting them in advantageous spots to score. This year, that may mean tweaking the style to emphasize the presence of two power six defectors in the paint. Greg Eboigbodin, formerly of Illinois, won’t be an offensive hub, but he can be one of the country’s best two-way rebounders, and Notre Dame transfer Chris Doherty is a skilled finisher and paint scorer whose below-the-rim athleticism won’t limit him as much in the CAA as it would have in the ACC.

Coen has recently devalued the offensive boards and focused on spreading the floor, but his early 2010s teams played through a star big man in Scott Eatherton, so there’s certainly precedent for featuring Doherty on offense. Doherty, a native of Marlborough, MA, will need a waiver to play right away, but considering he’s returning close to home and Irish Coach Mike Brey is supportive of Doherty’s move, that seems highly likely. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll only miss 2-3 weeks of the schedule.

Defensively, Walker will again set the tone. He’s a pest when guarding the ball and stalks passing lanes when off it, and the Huskies will have more length with Walters, Hadley, Quirin Emanga, and Telfort on the wings – all are 6’5 or taller. Though he won’t block shots, Eboigbodin is a stout paint anchor and post defender, and he and Doherty (and fellow forwards Jason Strong and Alexander Nwagha) should dominate the defensive glass, a Coen staple. The transition defense should continue to be excellent as well, as Northeastern opponents had the 347th-longest average possessions in the country, a testament to how much the Huskies make you earn open shots.   

Bottom Line: Led by two sophomores (Walker and Doherty) and with as many as four freshmen getting playing time, this will be one of Coen’s youngest teams. It also lacks the perimeter pop that he’s had in recent seasons, but it’s hard to see the bottom falling out for such a smart coach that will tailor his approach to the personnel. Northeastern hasn’t finished worse than 7-9 in the CAA since 2011, so even a “down year” likely means the Huskies will be howling in the middle of the pack, especially in a year where every team in the league has pronounced flaws.

4. Towson

Key Returners: Jason Gibson, Juwan Gray, Nicholas Timberlake, Solomon Uyaelunmo (injury), Jakigh Dottin
Key Losses: Allen Betrand (transfer), Brian Fobbs, Nakye Sanders, Dennis Tunstall
Key Newcomers: Zane Martin (New Mexico), Victor Uyaelunmo (USC), Curtis Holland (High Point), Cam Allen (Cal St. Bakersfield), Demetrius Mims (Long Beach St.), Darrick Jones Jr., Chris Biekeu

Lineup:

Outlook: It was a tale of two seasons for the Tigers last year, struggling through the first half of the campaign while getting out to a 6-9 (0-3) start. Pat Skerry and his squad turned things around, though, going 13-3 after January 2nd before a conference tournament loss to Northeastern to close the season (one of the few teams who were actually able to get that closure). This year is hard to gauge: the Tigers lose their top three scorers and top three rebounders – which is concerning for a team that excelled mostly on offense – but return several promising young guards and add a bevy of impact transfers. Skerry teams in general can be erratic, having finished 116th in KenPom in 2017 yet falling to 291st just two years later, so the range of outcomes is actually quite wide for this edition.

The fluctuation is relatively surprising for a team with such a defined identity of physicality and toughness on both ends of the floor. The biggest through line for Skerry’s squads is a fiery aggression on the offensive glass, with all nine of his teams ranking in the top 50 nationally in O-Reb rate (five in the top 15). That tenacity is typically present on the better defensive units of his era, as well, and this year’s assembly of bigs could give opponents major headaches.

It starts with the Bash Brothers, Solomon Uyaelunmo and Victor Uyaelunmo, both of whom sat out last year – Solomon with injury, Victor after transferring from a little school called USC. Both were heralded recruits (Victor moreso because he’s seven feet tall), and they fit Skerry’s approach perfectly. Both guys rebounded at impressive rates in their most recent campaigns, and as the starting duo for a CAA squad, they could be relentless. Fellow bruisers Juwan Gary and Charles Thompson are strangely one-sided specialists on the glass: Gary is largely invisible on the offensive end, while Thompson is far more effective there than on defense. Skerry also wants to get free points at the charity stripe whenever possible, so these guys will be encouraged to invite contact when finishing inside. Crucially, this group allows Skerry to build his team like Pied Piper’s algorithm: middle-out.

On the outside, the Tigers will run quite a bit of pick-and-roll for a featured guard or two, hoping to get drives to the hoop (and chances for easy follow-up opportunities) but otherwise content with mid-range jumpers if necessary. Jason Gibson became a starter during CAA play, and the offense took off:

He added a much-needed perimeter shooter alongside the lineup’s big wings and physical big men, and he showed promise in those PnR sets as well (73rd percentile – not bad for a freshman). At 165 pounds, Gibson is a rarity: the rest of the team’s guards embody Skerry’s lust for physicality, with Jakigh Dottin, who started before Gibson took over, checking in at a thick 211 pounds, and Nicolas Timberlake, who will step into a larger scoring role, going 6’4, 200 pounds himself.

Skerry’s backcourt will also get a huge lift from the boomerang-esque return of Zane Martin, an all-conference weapon for the Tigers back in 2017-18 (19.8 PPG) who spent two years in Albuquerque before opting to return to Towson. Given the arsenal of other weapons in the lineup, Martin may not need to score at such a prolific rate, but the well-built veteran knows the system and should be a steadying influence on the rest of the squad and affords Skerry an embarrassment of guard depth.

The other transfers Skerry added mostly match the feisty identity, as well. Cam Allen and Demetrius Mims come all the way from the west coast, but both played in similarly aggressive schemes at their previous stops. Allen’s shooting and Mims’ length and athleticism on defense will be welcome additions. The biggest add, though, could be Curtis Holland III, another tank of a guard (6’2, 220) who could battle Timberlake for a starting spot if healthy (he’s recovering from foot surgery). Freshman Darrick Jones Jr., a graduate of storied Oak Hill Academy, may get squeezed out of the rotation in year one, but he’s an outstanding long-term prospect for the Tigers that could provide minutes if Holland III is limited.

Though I did mention the shooting of Allen and Gibson, Towson is pointedly not a team that relies on the perimeter to score, consistently ranking near the bottom of the country in “spot up” opportunities, per Synergy (340th, 333rd, 309th in the past three years). That can put the Tigers at an inherent disadvantage considering how many shots they allow from deep on the other end, as Skerry has really packed in his man-to-man defense in the past four seasons.

Bottom Line: With the influx of so many pieces that were not around or on the court last year (both Uyaelunmos, Martin, Mims, Allen, Holland III, Jones Jr., freshman Chris Biekeu), Towson is a difficult team to nail down. That’s made even more difficult by Skerry’s up-and-down tenure in Maryland, despite his distinct style and affection for owning the paint on both ends of the court. The roster does seem to match his vision, though, so if he can push the right buttons with lineups and get enough perimeter scoring, the Tigers could repeat last season’s success down the stretch in the CAA, even pushing for a league title if everything breaks right.

Tier 2

5. Delaware

Key Returners: Kevin Anderson, Ryan Allen, Dylan Painter
Key Losses: Nate Darling (pro), Justyn Mutts (grad transfer), Collin Goss
Key Newcomers: Reggie Gardner (NCCU), Gianmarco Arletti, Andrew Carr, Logan Curtis (ECU)***, Anthony Ochefu (Stony Brook)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: What started as a highly promising offseason in which the Blue Hens looked like the clear favorite in the Colonial…actually went just fine for a while! It was uneventful for the first three and a half months, finally looking like Delaware wouldn’t suffer a painful loss to the transfer portal for the first time in years. But then late June hit, Justyn Mutts heard the call of the ACC and departed for Virginia Tech, and likely CAA preseason Player of the Year Nate Darling opted to go pro, leaving Coach Martin Inglesby to pick up the pieces once again and build a competitive squad with fewer pieces than he had hoped.

Darling was obviously a mega stud, but the versatile, physical Mutts was vital to the Blue Hens – look no further than the on/off numbers from Hoop Lens:

Inglesby’s thin roster simply did not have another player with Mutts’ size and skillset, and unless redshirt sophomore Aleks Novakovic takes a huge leap or legacy freshman Andrew Carr is ready right away (his dad and uncle both played for Delaware), it will continue to lack such a player. Anthony Ochefu could get a waiver to play right away, but he was a non-factor at a lesser program (Stony Brook), so expectations should not be high. Darling would have allowed for frequent small ball lineups, but that’s not an option anymore, either.

That puts a mammoth onus on the Blue Hens’ three-headed backcourt of returning starters Kevin Anderson and Ryan Allen and NCCU transfer Reggie Gardner. It’s a deadly trio in terms of floor spacing, especially around the many spread pick-and-roll schemes that Inglesby, a Mike Brey disciple, will run, although they’ll need Novakovich or Carr to provide some frontcourt shooting. Anderson and Allen ranked in the 74th and 69th percentile, respectively, in efficiency on PnR ball-handler possessions last year, but Darling’s shooting and creation will be a crucial loss as an attention-drawing threat around such action. The two senior guards should allow Delaware to maintain a level of potency on such plays, but the ceiling drops a notch.

As indicated by the Mutts on/off data, the Blue Hens my struggle to rebound this year, as well. Dylan Painter, a powerful big man and Villanova transfer who was up and down after becoming eligible in mid-December, is now the team’s primary (and only?) option inside. He dominated in the post, using his strength and skill to rank in the 96th percentile, per Synergy:

However, through no real fault of his own, Painter seemed to disrupt the rhythm of a team that was rolling (9-2, albeit against a weak non-conference schedule). Now available for the full duration of the season, Painter could become even more dominant as the team relies on him as a primary weapon. Depth behind him is suspect at best, dire at worst, so he’ll play all the minutes he can handle.

That brings us to the other glaring flaw for the Blue Hens: a scarily gaunt rotation, something that seemed to catch up with the Blue Hens last year. Transfers out of the program (Ryan Daly, Ithiel Horton, now Mutts) have crippled Inglesby’s depth, and Darling’s surprising choice to go pro complicates that even further. Over the years, the defections have resulted in an over-reliance on the top five or six players in the rotation. Inglesby has rolled with his guys no matter what, even with foul trouble in the first half:

While we generally approve of that strategy, the Blue Hens had to be extremely careful to avoid further foul issues, because the drop-off to the reserves was stark. That fear of physicality hurts the defense, and the Blue Hens’ issues on that end (265th in AdjDE) weighed down a terrific offense (116th in AdjOE, 13th in Shot Quality). Delaware has been torched from downtown in all four of Inglesby’s years in charge, ranking 281st, 336th, 279th, and 286th in defensive 3P%; while there is some bad luck to it, a multi-year trend like that indicates opponents are comfortable shooting against his conservative man-to-man.

There do not appear to be imminent answers to the depth questions. Carr and Novakovich may or may not be ready for bigger minutes loads, and guards like Johnny McCoy, Ebby Asamoah, and freshman Gianmarco Arletti are unproven at best, overmatched at worst. A waiver for ECU transfer Logan Curtis would be a major boost, but expect Inglesby to once again ride his top five players as much as possible.

Bottom Line: Considering the top-heavy nature of the roster and the continuity in the backcourt, Delaware may once again be a team to ride early in the season. Unless several of the bench players emerge as useful cogs, a midseason fade could be inevitable, but Inglesby has the talent to make a serious run in the postseason if he can get his primary guys fresh and healthy at the right time. Painter could explode over a full season, and Allen and Anderson form a steady, experienced guard duo with plenty of size. The Blue Hens will go as far as that core can propel them, although the upper reaches of that range are far cloudier than they looked in April.

6. Drexel

Key Returners: Camren Wynter, James Butler, Mate Okros, Matey Juric, Coletrane Washington, T.J. Bickerstaff, Zach Walton
Key Losses: Sam Green (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Lamar Oden Jr., Chuka Mekkam (JUCO), Xavier Bell, Amari Williams

Lineup:

Outlook: Trying to figure out how to gauge Drexel’s spot in the CAA this year? Just figure out where a team that will inevitably finish ~250th measures up against everyone else and voila! The Dragons have been laughably consistent in recent seasons:

Entering year five, Zach Spiker is still looking for a breakthrough, but he may finally have the team capable of making it happen. The Dragons only lose one true contributor, stretch forward Sam Green, and got a sixth-year waiver for scoring guard Zach Walton. Whether that roster continuity is enough to boost Spiker up the Colonial and national rankings is TBD, but Spiker should be familiar enough with the strengths of his roster to make moves at last after a successful run at Army.

The Dragons’ offensive catalyst is unquestionably point guard Camren Wynter, a junior who has started 61 of his 63 career games at the spot. He’s an impressive combination of quick and strong, and he became a legitimate perimeter threat last year, too. That makes it difficult to guard him in pick-and-rolls, an area where he excels. It helps that he has a terrific roll man to play with in James Butler, a sturdy big man who was also one of the nation’s best two-way rebounders. Wynter and Walton are both capable facilitators out of the PnR or in a spread look, and shooters like Hungarian Mate Okros and Canadian Matey Juric keep the court spaced.

Spiker’s offense is incredibly balanced, so he’ll also run things through Butler in the post at times. The former Navy transfer was a terrific scorer on the block (77th percentile nationally), and he was an even better passer (96th percentile in a smallish sample). Freshman Amari Williams has been praised for his passing vision, so the 6’10 Canadian and former teammate of Juric’s should prove to be a useful Butler backup and eventual replacement. Green was a nice complementary option given his ability to pull opposing forwards away from the rim, but Spiker actually started to play TJ Bickerstaff at the four more and more later in the season. Bickerstaff was useless as a shooter (0/13 from deep on the year), but did add a second rebounding presence and aided the defense. The best alignment, though, was actually playing smallball with Walton at the four:

An important note: the offensive numbers are unsustainably poor for the Butler/Bickerstaff combo (22.2% from deep – yikes). Still, the point is fairly clear: playing four guards around the physical Butler is a beneficial strategy.

To that end, having more guard depth would be enormously helpful, as the Dragons were forced to slow things down somewhat due to a lack of quality reserves beyond microwave scorer Coletrane Washington. That means the Dragons’ newcomers will be crucial. Wynter barely left the court last year, so Spiker added a pure point guard in Chuka Mekkam from the esteemed Vincennes University (JUCO), a savvy floor general and smart passer. Freshmen guards Lamar Oden Jr. (not Lamar Odom Jr., as much as my mind tried to make it so) and Xavier Bell both have intriguing abilities, with Oden Jr. being a bigger athlete and Bell being more of a combo guard.

The most important tenet defensively is that Drexel tries desperately to run foes off the three-point arc and largely refuses to help off shooters, which results in surrendering quite a few shots at the rim – a problem considering that Butler isn’t really a shot-blocker (and shots at the rim are highly efficient). Foes with skilled slashers that can finish inside will give the Drexel defense fits.

Bottom Line: With a trio like Wynter, Butler, and Walton, the Dragons have a chance to make some noise this year, especially with teams like Northeastern, Charleston, and Hofstra all losing multiple key pieces this offseason. Spiker needs to take advantage of that, or it’s going to be hard to justify whether he can ever elevate this Drexel program above the “slightly below average level” at which it’s now sat for six straight years.

7. Elon

Key Returners: Hunter McIntosh, Hunter Woods, Zac Ervin, Simon Wright, Federico Poser, Chuck Hannah, Kris Wooten
Key Losses: Marcus Sheffield
Key Newcomers: JaDun Michael*, Ikenna Ndugba (Bryant), Jerald Gillens-Butler (Butler), Michael Graham, Brandon Harris, Darius Burford

* - expected to miss the season after undergoing shoulder surgery

Lineup:

Outlook: *Trying to decide if I have the willpower to resist a Phoenix reference…*

Come on, you know I don’t!

With most of last year’s young and talented roster returning and the influx of an impressive crop of newcomers, can the Phoenix rise from the ashes of its past three seasons of futility? (Yup, that felt right.) Over that stretch, Elon is 38-60 overall, 20-34 in the Colonial, and underwent a coaching change last offseason, hiring Mike Schrage off of Chris Holtmann’s staff at Ohio State. Schrage quickly went to work pulling in talent, nabbing transfers from Stanford and Butler and assembling an outstanding freshman class, most of whom made major impacts last year. He continued that recruiting success this offseason, making Elon a viable contender to shoot up the CAA standings, although the youth throughout the roster means there could be some major ups and downs as the season progresses.

Schrage’s calling card is his beautiful flowing offense, a symphony of perimeter movement that rarely stagnates around isolation or post ups. The Phoenix have plenty of shooters at basically every position (ranked 6th nationally in 3PA rate last year), meaning the floor is open for the bevy of cuts and screens that take place. With the roster’s collective willingness to move the ball, the system can look downright balletic at times:

A duo of sophomore Hunters – Hunter McIntosh and Hunter Woods (who hit the three in the above clip) – should ascend into primary scoring roles after taking back seats to the prolific Marcus Sheffield last season; McIntosh was the CAA Rookie of the Year, and Woods joined him on the All-Rookie team. The two lefties complement each other well, with McIntosh being a capable creator at guard and Woods being more of a fungible matchup problem that can play the 3 or the 4.

Elon would likely have had another All-Rookie candidate this year in JaDun Michael, formerly a fringe top 100 recruit who was previously committed to Wichita State and spurned other power programs like NC State, Penn State, and Cincinnati. Michael fits the team identity well: he’s a big wing who can stretch the court or slash into gaps, but a shoulder injury may force him to redshirt. Fortunately, Zac Ervin and Kris Wooten give Schrage two skilled incumbents; both are mostly known for their shooting prowess (Ervin being much more assertive and capable of shooting on the move). Getting more on-ball dynamism on the court would make sense, though, and two transfers, Jerald Gillens-Butler and Ikenna Ndugba, could fit that bill. Schrage recruited Gillens-Butler at Butler before 2017, and the 230-pound wing will add more physicality. Ndugba is a point guard who could shift McIntosh into more of a scoring role, though perhaps that makes more sense as a change-of-pace off the bench.

The three-headed center rotation of Simon Wright, Chuck Hannah, and Federico Poser serve mostly as screeners and finishers on offense, although the former two can knock in an occasional three if left all alone. The problem with that group – and really, for Elon in general – is on the defensive side of the ball. The Phoenix were repeatedly torched last year, ranking as the worst defense in the CAA and finishing 313th nationally on that end per KenPom’s AdjDE. None of the three have true center size (Poser is the biggest at 6’8, 230 pounds), and bigger foes can light them up inside. Well-regarded freshman Michael Graham stands 6’10, but he may not get in the rotation immediately given the veterans ahead of him. Schrage tried to compensate for this by keeping opponents away from the rim schematically, but Elon got bombarded from the perimeter as a result.

Elon specifically struggled to deal with the pick-and-roll, ranking 350th nationally in PPP when defending ball-handlers. Part of that can probably be attributed to the youth of the Phoenix guards, but it was also an athleticism limitation; hopefully, added experience can help with the former and the additions of Gillens-Butler, Ndugba, and fellow freshman Brandon Harris can alleviate the latter. It’s never pretty to look at a team’s Synergy profile and see “1%” for an efficiency percentile, but that’s where Elon’s PnR defense resides.

Bottom Line: Considering the roster’s youth and talent, the inexperience but apparent savvy of its coach, the reliance on jump shots, and the question marks on defense, Elon has the widest range of outcomes in the entire conference, in my eyes. If the offense clicks and the bevy of impressive pieces all fall into place, the Phoenix could be in the mix right at the top of the standings. If the defensive issues persist and Elon cannot get easy buckets, though, they could remain towards the bottom and look like the classic “another year away” squad. It’s all on the table, but two things do seem certain: Elon games will be fun to watch, and Schrage has the ball rolling quickly in the right direction.

8. UNC Wilmington

Key Returners: Ty Gadsden, Jaylen Sims, Shykeim Phillips, Mike Okauru, Jay Estime’ (injury), Brian Tolefree, Imajae Dodd, Jake Boggs
Key Losses: Martin Linssen (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jamahri Harvey, Ja’Juan Carr, Ian Steere (St. John’s)

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s never too late to do the right thing, folks. Let the UNC Wilmington administration’s decision to (finally) hire Takayo Siddle, Kevin Keatts’ lead assistant at UNCW, three years after Keatts accepted a big boy ACC job be a testament to that truth. The administration went astray by trying to force such a stylistically different choice into the program (UNC assistant C.B. McGrath), and that experiment failed miserably, as McGrath was unable to bring in the kind of players he needed to become a mini UNC. Instead, the roster is still overflowing with a wealth of guards, an ideal blend of speed and scoring with which Siddle can reconstruct the style that flourished under his old boss.

Make no mistake about it – that’s Siddle’s plan. In an offseason interview, Siddle was asked about the team’s glaring lack of size, to which he responded:

“I think we’ll be faster than most teams, and with our speed and the way we play, the way we’re gonna press, I think it will kinda eliminate some of the bigger post players in our league.”

Keatts pressed 35% of the time in his final year at UNCW, the second-highest rate in the country, so Siddle is likely not blowing smoke with such a claim. He gave different looks, which made it tougher on the offense to get comfortable and slowed them from quickly breaking the pressure each time. Sometimes it was just a straight man-to-man meant to speed up the ball-handler, sometimes it was a diamond trap in the backcourt, and sometimes it was man-to-man with a run-and-jump trapping element:

A backcourt of Shykeim Phillips, Ty Gadsden, and Mike Okauru gives Siddle three lightning-quick defenders who can wreak havoc; Phillips ranked 92nd nationally in steal rate for a team that wasn’t prioritizing pressure, and Gadsden and Okauru were not far behind.

Where those UNCW teams really excelled, though, was via a devastating four-out blitz on the offensive end, spreading and slashing their way through defenses that simply could not keep up. Again, the trio of ball-handlers will be a challenge to guard, and UNCW will have the pedal to the metal in the open floor. All three Keatts teams ranked in the top 75 nationally in tempo, and it would be a minor shock to see Siddle not match or exceed that with this group.

The presence of a bigger fourth guard (a la CJ Bryce in 2017) is what truly unlocks the attack, and Jaylen Sims is perfectly equipped to handle that role. He can abuse slower-footed matchups, and both can open up the court for spread pick-and-roll action with their shooting. Jay Estime’ would have been a second ideal fit, but he tore an ACL in September (especially brutal as he was coming back from a previous season-ending knee injury), but fortunately, the backcourt has some depth. Brian Tolefree and/or Jake Boggs can be floor spacers off the bench, and freshmen Ja’Juan Carr and Jamahri Harvey will be given every opportunity to contribute early. Harvey is especially intriguing; he played alongside NC State recruits Josh Hall (opted to go pro) and Shakeel Moore at Moravian Prep, and he could be a diamond in the rough after being overshadowed by those two.

The trick will be finding enough of a paint presence to take advantage of the space the offense creates and to battle inside defensively. Devontae Cacok was the platonic ideal for this role – remember when he shot 79% from the field over an entire season? – and Imajae Dodd may follow in his footsteps as a burly but mobile presence who can make an impact on the glass on both ends of the floor. Siddle also added Ian Steere, a big man he recruited to NC State while an assistant there and another terrific option as the “one in” of the four-out, one-in spread offense. The Seahawks don’t need a ton of depth here because of the 4-guard system, but the only other post option is thin sophomore John Bowen.

Bottom Line: I can’t lie – I loved watching Keatts’ UNCW teams play, and the prospect of Siddle resurrecting that style has me excited. More importantly, though, playing that style with this roster makes sense. There’s multiple ball-handlers, guard depth, and a bigger wing who can hold up as a small-ball four (if only Estime’ were healthy to make it two such players). If Dodd and/or Steere can lock down the center position, the Seahawks are primed for a quick resurgence, and these gorgeous jerseys getting more shine will never be a bad thing:

9. James Madison

Key Returners: Matt Lewis, Zach Jacobs, Michael Christmas, Julien Wooden
Key Losses: Darius Banks (transfer), Deshon Parker (transfer), Dwight Wilson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Rashawn Fredricks (UAB/Cincinnati), Justin Amadi, Terrence Edwards, Terell Strickland, Jalen Hodge (UL Monroe), Vado Morse (Mount St. Mary’s), Joel Mensah (San Diego St.), TJ Taylor (Wyoming)***

*** - needs waiver to play immediately

Lineup:

Outlook: The JMU administration pulled the plug on the Louis Rowe experiment this offseason; four straight sub-.500 seasons and a declining KenPom rating in all four campaigns will do that, even for a JMU alum. That opened the door for a fairly surprising coaching hire: Georgia Southern’s Mark Byington, who had built a sustainably strong program in the Sun Belt. At first glance, it might not seem like the GSU-to-JMU move (and Sun Belt-to-CAA move) is a major upgrade; it’s not like either school or league has much of a shot at earning at-large bids. But JMU’s basketball budget was $1.2M more than GSU’s last year, and the Dukes’ strong fanbase is eager to see that investment in hoops pay off into actual on-court success.

Still, Byington is taking over a rebuild, and the tumultuous offseason of roster turnover is highly indicative of the regime change. Three players who started 20+ games transferred out, and Byington was plenty active in the transfer portal himself, with several key additions obtaining waivers. Only Matt Lewis as a proven difference-maker, and the big point guard with a deadly shooting stroke will be a key part of Byington’s initial efforts to install his own offense, but its the additions that add real hope for early improvement.

Schematically, Byington and Rowe have relatively similar philosophies on offense: they want to spread the court and allow their guards to attack driving lanes, both via pick-and-rolls and simpler slash-and-kick actions. Byington, though, often played four guards at GSU as a way of getting additional speed and shooting on the court, which made it much harder for defenses to rotate and slow them down. His Eagles were consistently on the small end of the scale, and the offense was highly reliant on individual talent rather than crisp ball movement:

The reliance on drives and low assist rates led to foes frequently zoning GSU (2nd-highest rate in the country, per Synergy), so the Dukes will need to hit shots.

With waivers for Jalen Hodge and Vado Morse, two quicker guards that fit Byington’s drive-heavy style well, playing that way will be an option right away. Neither had much team success at prior stops, and Hodge struggled with injuries last year, but Morse was the NEC Freshman of the Year in 2018-19. Both guys will be keys to Byington’s attack alongside Lewis. Two freshmen, Terell Strickland and Terrence Edwards, will probably back up the transfers, but perhaps more importantly, both seem like strong fixtures for the rebuild thanks to their quickness and energy. I’m contractually obligated to mention that Strickland is the son of DePaul great and NBA veteran Rod Strickland; he could eventually be Byington’s new Tookie Brown at JMU.

Another transfer, TJ Taylor of Wyoming, is from Virginia, which means he’s could get the “moving closer to home during a pandemic” waiver (though he did not initially receive one with the other three). He’ll join Lewis, Edwards, and grad transfer Rashawn Fredericks as bigger guards with size, a luxury Byington rarely had at GSU. All stand 6’5 or 6’6, giving Byington the option of switching defensively and pressuring with their length, something he weaponized at GSU whenever possible. The four-guard look may also push him to play zone, something else he did frequently in Statesboro, using a variety of trapping schemes to make opponents uncomfortable.

The Dukes also have a couple versatile forwards to man the paint in Zach Jacobs and Michael Christmas. Jacobs is more of a “true” big, a useful offensive rebounder and rim protector, while Christmas would enable five-out lineups at times thanks to his combination of strength on the defensive boards and perimeter shooting stroke. San Diego State transfer Joel Mensah is the most intriguing frontcourt piece, a highly regarded recruit and a vertical element as a lob threat and shot-blocker, something Byington never really had at GSU. Julien Wooden started 10 games last year, but he may have to beat out athletic freshman Justin Amadi for minutes, and even those could be limited as lineups tilt towards the backcourt.

Bottom Line: Long-term, Byington seems like a home run hire for JMU: he has a vision for how to play that should be appealing to recruits, and the university seems to have committed to him fully, awarding him a lucrative six-year deal that gives him the runway he’ll need to build the program. The rash of waivers gives rise to hope for his first year, as Byington snagged some talented transfers and freshmen, allowing the development to begin immediately. The CAA is always a league of great parity, and that may be especially true this season, so a 9th- or 10th-place prediction is by no means a certain condemnation to the league cellar.

10. William & Mary

Key Returners: Luke Loewe, Thornton Scott, Quinn Blair, Miguel Ayesa
Key Losses: Nathan Knight, Andy Van Vliet, Bryce Barnes, Tyler Hamilton
Key Newcomers: Yuri Covington, Jake Milkereit, Ben Wight (redshirt), Connor Kochera

Lineup:

Outlook: While we didn’t bellyache quite as much as our pal Alan Boston, we were still fairly stunned by the dismissal of Tony Shaver last offseason. Several players shared our discontent and transferred, but new coach Dane Fischer hung on to the most precious jewel: center Nathan Knight. Fischer smartly built his entire offense around the multi-skilled big man, and that helped the Tribe exceed all preseason expectations, including ours and the CAA’s itself (picked 7th in the preseason poll), winning 21 games and finishing 2nd in the league. Mr. Fischer, we owe you an apology!

With Knight and fellow skilled lefty forward Andy Van Vliet gone, the offense may need to see a shift to a more backcourt-oriented approach. Fischer ran a ton of action designed to isolate Knight and Van Vliet at the top of the key in pick-and-pops, incorporating the roll man into the offense at one of the highest rates in the country, and he also consistently fed both bigs in the post:

We often think of lobs to a dunking big man as the obvious example of hitting the roll man, but Fischer used it more to allow Knight and Van Vliet to attack recovering defenders or shoot over the top if the close out was too short. The options to replace those two prolific scorers are alarmingly limited, with role player Quinn Blair likely to start as the only one with any experience. He’s a high-energy guy with a promising shooting stroke. Mekhel Harvey has some upside, especially on the defensive end, but he lacks the offensive versatility that his predecessors possessed, while Ben Wight is a question mark after redshirting last year and entering with little fanfare.

Fortunately, the backcourt has some options, most notably Thornton Scott, a big guard with terrific passing vision who was hampered by injuries during both of his first two seasons. Hopefully he’ll finally be healthy, allowing him to form a nice pick-and-roll (or pick-and-pop) partnership with Blair/Harvey and get into the lane against smaller opponents. Impressive freshman Yuri Covington adds depth at the spot (a key given Scott’s injury history), and he could allow Fischer to play dual point guard lineups like he did last year with Scott and the graduated Bryce Barnes. Both players will be asked to shoulder a decent-sized scoring load considering how many questions the frontcourt has offensively.

That should be aided by having shooters like Luke Loewe and Miguel Ayesa spreading the floor. Both are tremendously efficient: Loewe ranked 10th in the entire country in effective FG%, while Ayesa’s 37.7% rate from deep belies his aggressive “see it, shoot it” philosophy. Ayesa held the distinction of being the only Division I player to take over 100 threes and fewer than five free throws (he took zero). Thatcher Stone rarely saw the court last year, but he has the size to make a two-way impact on the wing, and his year in the program should give him an edge over incoming wings Jake Milkereit and Connor Kochera. They will also be given the chance to play right away, particularly if they can beat out Rainers Hermanovskis, a complete non-factor on the offensive end last year.

Considering that he was often using two true bigs, Fischer smartly played a very conservative man-to-man on the other end, refusing to let his perimeter players gamble and forcing foes to hit jumpers or finish over the top of his towering post players. Even without them, though, expect this style to continue – he’s off the Dave Paulsen coaching tree, and Paulsen’s defenses have long valued the defensive glass and forcing difficult shots over getting into passing lanes. Unless Harvey really emerges, there’s no shot-blocker here, so keeping foes away from the rim makes sense. The problem is that the CAA is almost always full of lethal shooters, so a packed-in scheme can get into trouble quickly.

Bottom Line: Fischer proved to be a savvy leader in his first campaign, and he’ll need every bit of his coaching acumen to coax a respectable offense out of this group. The Tribe lacks the mismatches in the frontcourt to expose defenses in the same way as last year, so a major shift in style might need to happen, and Scott, Loewe, and Covington need to find ways to consistently create for themselves and others. After struggling at times defensively last year, William & Mary may have to make that its identity in 2020-21, although there are certainly red flags on that end, as well. At the risk of underestimating Mr. Fischer again, the Tribe feels a few pieces short of being able to reasonably imitate last season’s success, especially in a league where the margins are often razor thin.