-Matt Cox

(1) Gonzaga v. (1) Baylor

Initial Thoughts: After Gonzaga and UCLA delivered 45 minutes of pure hoops ecstasy last night, one last battle remains…

Like a Manny Pacquiao / Floyd Mayweather ‘will they or won’t they’ crescendo of anticipation, the epic clash of college basketball’s two titans will finally take centerstage.

Remember when we relentlessly cursed out the basketball Gods for ruining this date back in December due to COVID? In hindsight, perhaps this was all part of a master plan. You know, delay the ultimate spectacle we’ve all been salivating for until the last possible moment. 

Welp, it’s arrived. Will Gonzaga defeat the final boss on their quest for perfection? THIS is what we came for.

Gonzaga on Offense: This side of the ball is why the Zags are still standing. UCLA came out throwing a flurry of haymakers and never relented, even in overtime. The Bruins wore down the Zags with taxing jabs and body shots in the form of excruciatingly tough midrange jumpers. It was truly a dazzling display of shot making:

The Bruins weren’t just red hot on pull ups. They canned 8 of their 17 triples (47%) and committed just 10 turnovers all night. All that amounted to a pristine 1.22 points per possession scoring clip against a top-10 defensive unit. Kansas (1.10), Iowa (1.04), BYU (1.11) and West Virginia (1.01) all couldn’t come within 0.1 of the Bruins’ efficiency, as the Zags found themselves in a barnburner for the first time all year.

Still, it wasn’t enough to take down the Gonzaga juggernaut. Jalen Suggs delivered the final hook right to the jaw of Bill Walton and the entirety of Bruin nation.

Suggs was the hero but ‘Sir Mustache’, Drew Timme, was the Zags’ bell cow. Excluding the opening round demolition of Norfolk State, the Handlebar God is 40/50 from the field in the NCAA Tournament. My TI-83 calculator tells me that’s 80 freaking percent, which includes three non-sensical 3-point misses.

Timme’s dominance dupes us into immediately looking at the opposing frontline to determine if there’s a worthy challenger on the other side capable of corralling Timme in the paint.

Spoiler: nope, there never is.

You can debate who Baylor’s best post defender is all night long – for what it’s worth, both Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (‘Cha Cha’ from this point forward) and Flo Thamba grade out as ‘very good’ post defenders, per Synergy – but that angle is narrow minded. Analyzing this matchup in a player by player vacuum ignores the secret sauce of Gonzaga’s offense - which is, as Jordan Majewski emphatically points out, continuity.

Timme’s low post scoring package is just a sliver of his broader offensive arsenal, unlocked to the Nth degree by the Zags’ constant motion and cutting. His skill and mobility are why he’s a nightmare to defend. He can slash from 25-feet out or catch, face up and attack from the high post area. 

UCLA’s wing-laden defense was fairly well constructed to neutralize the devastating pace of Gonzaga’s offense. The Bruins stood their ground impressively during a few stretches last night, which gives me a modicum of confidence that Baylor’s defensive DNA is set up for a modicum of success in this matchup.

Again, this is all relative – Gonzaga still scored 1.26 points per possession last night.

That said, Baylor’s switchable, no middle defense is UCLA on steroids. They may not have a clear-cut enforcer up front but the agility of Cha Cha, Matthew Mayer and Mark Vital are necessary to keep up with Timme, while still providing necessary help side support against the laundry list of Gonzaga’s offensive ammunition. 

Baylor on Offense: It’s hard to say UCLA exposed a crack in Gonzaga’s defensive armor last night. I’d concede Gonzaga’s defense is the weakest link of the four side ball components in this matchup (Gonzaga’s offense, Baylor’s defense, Baylor’s offense and Gonzaga’s defense, in that order) but last night’s instant classic was such because UCLA simply made every improbable shot under the sun:

The Zags are stout defensively, but they’re far from an impenetrable unit. Throughout the last month, we’ve witnessed brief spells of Mr. Timme floundering defensively, a minor hole in the Handlebar’s overall game. Per Synergy, Timme is the Zags’ worst individual defender, earning a borderline disrespectful grade of ‘poor’ (11th percentile nationally). While those figures are skewed by a myriad of situational factors, Timme’s lack of vertical explosion limits his impact as a rim protector.  

Baylor won’t be looking to post Timme up but they can exploit him in pick-n-roll, aiming to get a switch and subsequent mismatch on the perimeter. Here’s a prime example from last night, where UCLA simply sets a basic ball screen to get Timme switched on to Jaime Jaquez:

Scott Drew should look to replicate this action, perhaps with Matthew Mayer as the ball screen initiator, who can force the switch and attack downhill from the perimeter.

Key Factor(s):

• Baylor’s Lineups: No one is in position to question Scott Drew’s lineup decisions but I’ll stick my neck out there: why is the Mark Vital and Flo Thamba frontcourt tandem higher in the depth chart pecking order than Matthew Mayer and the Cha Cha slide?

The eye test tells me the latter is the better duo by a mile, especially with Mayer’s emergence defensively and Vital’s unreliable contributions offensively. Per hooplens.com, Baylor scored at 1.16 points per possession against Wisconsin, Villanova and Houston with Mayer and Cha Cha on the floor together. That clip drops to 1.05 for Vital and Thamba, with virtually no net gains on the defensive end. While Vital’s true to his name defensively, Mayer’s length and motor has negated that edge. Similarly, Cha Cha may lack the imposing frame that Thamba boasts but he’s far more mobile in space and better as pick-n-roll diver.

• Baylor’s Shooting: Baylor’s gotten this far in the dance with defense, offsetting multiple poor shooting performances to survive and advance. But, when the Bears make shots, you may as well call the fight. Houston was a victim of an overdue air strike, as the Bears rained in 11 treys on 24 attempts (46%). As trivial as it sounds, it’s hard to see a world in which Baylor goes cold from deep and still finds a way to win this game.

• Joel Ayayi: Baylor’s no middle defense demands proactive off ball help, leaving opposing drivers little room to maneuver when they crack the paint. Ayayi’s savvy cutting may just be what the doctor ordered in this matchup, as he’ll look to flash through the lane when multiple defenders pinch down on Suggs, Andrew Nembhard and Corey Kispert’s dribble penetration. Ayayi was flawless Saturday, a launching pad for what could be another stellar performance in the title game.

Final Predictions: From a betting lens, it’s hard to imagine *this* version of Baylor catching 5 points on a neutral floor against anyone. But, Gonzaga isn’t just anyone. The Zags are an outlier, a once in a generation caliber squad, worthy of comparison to some of college basketball’s all-time great teams.

Out of necessity, I will take Baylor with the points (buy the half point to 5 if your book shows 4.5) but confidently fading Gonzaga is a fool’s errand. The way I see it, Baylor is officially back in business, now showing zero cracks after the post COVID cobwebs that led to a few head scratching games late in the regular season.

Both teams are firing on all cylinders, setting up for the holy grail of all college basketball games. Don’t take this for granted, kids.