-Jim Root

In the interest of entertainment, I wanted to go on record in one place with many of my boldest (or dumbest) opinions on the upcoming college hoops season. Spanning teams/leagues big and small, here are 33 predictions (we’re 3MW, the number is close enough) that will definitely 100% maybe hopefully come true (with Matt and Ky sprinkling in a couple, as you’ll see noted):

1. Memphis does not win the AAC and does not make the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend

Might as well start with perhaps the most controversial one! As I mentioned at the bottom of my “Quick Peek at Futures,” this #1 recruiting class is not on the same level in terms of elite players as other recent top-ranked groups, and I’m even a little bearish (relatively speaking) on the two 5-stars. The Tigers have the depth of talent to dunk all over me, though.

2. Jermaine Marrow leads the country in points per game, followed by Antoine Davis and Grant Riller

Marrow and Riller both lose a high-usage second banana, opening up more shots, while Davis has the greenest light in the entire country. For reference, the top returning scorers:

3. Cole Anthony is the best freshman in college basketball

Discussed this on the podcast, but it’s the perfect marriage of mega-dynamic talent, opportunity on a team that needs a lead ball-handler and perimeter production, and uptempo system.

4. Mississippi or Alabama makes the Sweet 16 (60th and 70th in KenPom’s preseason rankings)

I believe in Kermit and #OvernightOats!

5. The American gets four NCAA bids

Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and I think Wichita St. will get there, if healthy (not off to a great start with Jaime Echenique’s injury).

6. Following the two-bid OVC, a mid-major earns an at-large bid again

The best candidates here look like New Mexico State, East Tennessee State, Vermont, and Liberty (potentially Harvard, as well). The Aggies will be hurt by the A.J. Harris injury during a chunk of the non-conference season. The SoCon really upped its profile last year, but ETSU will need to steal a game at Kansas or at LSU to have a true case. Vermont will need worthy challengers to emerge in the America East (Albany, Stony Brook, UMBC), while Liberty’s non-conference slate is almost certainly too weak to nab a bid. Still, I think the committee wants to make this an annual trend and show they’re being “fair” to mid-majors (spoiler: they’re not), so I think someone gets there.

7. The ACC only gets six bids

That means Duke, UNC, Louisville, and Virginia, plus I’m sold on Florida St., leaving room for just one of Notre Dame, NC State, and Syracuse. The problem for the ACC is that I don’t think teams 11-15 will offer any sort of quality win opportunities for the bubble hopefuls, and the top 3-4 teams are so dominant that they’ll separate themselves from the middle, as well. Realistically, this is probably an impossibility due to the power of $$, but I’ll predict it anyways. However, the first two years after expanding to 15 teams (2014 and 2015), the league actually only got six bids, so there is precedent.

8. At least one of Georgetown or Washington misses the NCAA Tournament

Two fanbases who are extremely excited about their young players, but I’m more hesitant. Both could get there, but they have to prove it.

9. Seton Hall ends up in the 6 to 10 seed range, not in the “protected” Top 16.

I’ve (semi-unintentionally) backed myself into a corner against Seton Hall, and while I think this is a good team with an incendiary scoring star, I’m hesitant on the team’s point guard play and defensive versatility without Michael Nzei.

10. Jim Boeheim complains about the new 3-point line distance after a loss, but then completely contradicts himself after a win in which the opponent goes 3/28 from deep against the 2-3

This doesn’t actually feel bold at all, but I wanted to include it.

11. Either New Mexico State or East Tennessee State spends time inside the KenPom Top 40

The two are ranked 64th and 74th, respectively, in Ken’s preseason rankings. This is pretty much the “Wofford Corrolary” - one of these teams will get hot enough to be ascend into a higher echelon. I wanted to only say NMSU, but the A.J. Harris injury has me just nervous enough to add in the Buccaneers.

12. Nebraska wins eight Big Ten games (Pom projects them for 5-15)

This is probably aggressive, but I love Fred Hoiberg and think the ultra guard-centric roster suits him. Once human cinder block Shamiel Stevenson is eligible in December, Hoiberg can really spread the floor 1 through 5 with skill and speed.

13. Chicago State finishes inside the top 330

Rankings the last four years: 347, 335, 346, 351. Preseason ranking: 351. With a full contingent of scholarship players, I say 330th or better. You can do this, Lance Irvin!

14. A list of mid-major coaches who will take new “better” jobs following this season: Steve Forbes (ETSU), Chris Jans (NMSU), John Becker (Vermont), Jeff Linder (Northern Colorado), Pat Kelsey (Winthrop), Matt Langel (Colgate), Bob Richey (Furman)

Just kidding about Pat Kelsey - he’ll get cold feet.

15. Nico Mannion makes an All-American team

I know Mark Titus is on this corner as well (#NicoNation), and my colleague Matt and I adopted “Nico Suave” after watching him in the Nike Hoops Summit. Mannion is just an ultra-competitive MFer who will have unlimited opportunities for a high-profile Pac 12 team.

16. Wofford and Lipscomb both remain in their conference’s top three despite heavy offseason losses

Both teams lost conference Players of the Year (Fletcher Magee, Garrison Mathews) and phenomenal coaches (Mike Young, Casey Alexander), but both made smart hires and have some intriguing pieces. This might just mean third place, but it would be an impressive accomplishment after the end of terrific eras at each school.

17. Buffalo wins the MAC (again)

Nate Oats is a major loss, as are three senior stars in CJ Massinburg, Nick Perkins, and Jeremy Harris. But there’s plenty of options remaining, and the backcourt of Jayvon Graves and Davonta Jordan can be a force on both ends of the floor.

18. (Guest Prediction) UCLA finishes top 5 in the Pac 12 - Ky McKeon  

I don’t hate it! Mick Cronin has always been able to build a formidable defense when he has size and athleticism, and this collection of Steve Alford recruits certainly has that. In an improving-but-still-softish conference, the Bruins - who reside outside the top 100 in KenPom’s preseason rankings - have plenty of opportunity to gain ground.

19. Brad Underwood finally figures it out at Illinois

And by “figure it out,” I mean, “not give up lay-up after lay-up against teams with competent guards.” The Illini should return to the NCAA Tournament once again this year.

20. Desmond Bane averages 20-5-5, the third Power 6 player to do it since 1992

The only other two players to do this: Markelle Fultz and Evan Turner. Bane will have to increase his assist rate to get there, but with the chance of him handling the ball more, I think it’s possible. Unfortunately, TCU’s roster is thin around him.

21. Iona wins a fifth straight MAAC Tournament

Death, taxes, Iona and Tim Cluess in March - even without Rickey McGill.

22. The next Chris Clemons/Keon Johnson begins to emerge in the Big South

College basketball’s home of the diminutive dynamo, the Big South has had three Players of the Year that stood under 5’10 in the past five seasons (2019 - Campbell’s Chris Clemons, 2017 - Winthrop’s Keon Johnson, 2015 - Charleston Southern’s Saah Nimley). Several freshmen enter the league looking to take the torch from Clemons, including 5’8 Quinton Morton-Robertson at Radford, 5’8 Russell Jones at Winthrop, and 5’8 Messiah Thompson at Campbell.

23. (Guest Prediction) Vermont goes undefeated against the America East - Ky McKeon

John Becker and the Catamounts have done it before, running the A-East table in 2016-17 en route to a 13-seed. That was Anthony Lamb’s freshman year, and now that he’s a senior, another perfect performance would tie an elegant bow on his incredible career.

24. Mizzou makes the NCAA Tournament

I’m not a homer, I’m not a homer, I’m not a homer…but the other Mizzou alum at this website, Mr. Ky McKeon does agree with me, so…we might be homers.

25. Harvard finally wins Ivy Madness

After losing two road games in the championship of Ivy Madness (@ Penn, @ Yale), Harvard will finally host the tournament in Cambridge, and Tommy Amaker’s uber-talented squad should - should - get over the hump.

26. Like Ron Hunter said, Tulane doesn’t finish last in the American – nor second last, and actually wins five conference games (projected for 2-16 right now)

I’m kind of in on this Tulane team, insomuch as thinking they’ll go 5-13 in the league qualifies as “being in on them.” Hunter is a terrific coach, and taking over for Mike Dunleavy is like getting a brand new BMW after driving around in a rusty Toyota Tercel for three years.

27. (Guest Prediction) Iowa State finishes last in the Big 12 - Ky McKeon

I’m sticking my head in the sand and ignoring the red flags around this Cyclone roster, but I’ll admit that Ky isn’t insane for suggesting this - if Rasir Bolton and Prentiss Nixon can’t find a modicum of efficiency in their new surroundings, too heavy a burden will fall on Tyrese Haliburton.

28. As the NCAA Tournament approaches, an ACC coach will whine about having to play (and lose) a conference game in early November

I sort of get it, but the thing is, the team you lost to also had to play a conference game in November, so…

29. Emmitt Williams and Reggie Perry both average double-doubles

Perry was close enough last year (9.7ppg, 7.2rpg) that it isn’t that bold, but Williams (7.0ppg, 5.4rpg) is a lot more of a stretch. He’s an Energizer bunny on the glass, and with Naz Reid and Kavell Bigby-Williams gone, there are significantly more rebounds to go around. Will Wade’s strategy relies on eating up the glass, although Williams may not quite play enough minutes to get there.

30. (Guest Prediction) Michigan Misses the NCAA Tournament - Matt Cox

Matt went extremely bold here, and I don’t hate it - there’s precious few offensive weapons in Ann Arbor, and if the Wolverines drop a few games early without Franz Wagner, building an at-large resume in the unforgiving Big Ten will be a tall task.

31. Gonzaga sweeps St. Mary’s in the regular season again

Talent-wise, this matchup is about as close as it’s been in recent years, but I’m still riding with Mark Few in a matchup that he’s dominated - the 2019 WCC Tournament final notwithstanding (15-4 in the last 19 meetings - straight up and against the spread).

32. The Final Four consists of Michigan State, North Carolina, Florida, and Gonzaga

A second straight Final Four without Duke, Kentucky, or Kansas? I know, I’m crazy.

33. North Carolina wins the NCAA Tournament

I’ve put this prediction in too many places to change course now - get it done, Daggum Roy!

Note: I consider it a huge success that I finished this without predicting any coaches to get fired.