Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Collin Welp, R Sr., UC Irvine
Coach of the Year: Russell Turner, UC Irvine
Newcomer of the Year: EJ Anosike, Sr., Cal State Fullerton
Freshman of the Year: Ajay Mitchell, Fr., UC Santa Barbara

Tier 1

1. UC Irvine

Key Returners: Collin Welp, Dawson Baker, DJ Davis, Isaiah Lee, JC Butler, Austin Johnson, Justin Hohn, Andre Henry, Emmanuel Tshimanga
Key Losses: Brad Greene, Jeron Artest
Key Newcomers: Devin Tillis (UNLV), Bent Leuchten

Lineup:

Outlook: Is the “Anteater” the best mascot in college basketball? I think it might be, but that’s up for debate.

What’s not up for debate is UC Irvine’s awesomeness under Russ Turner. Since 2013, Turner’s third year with the program, the Eaters have won double-digit league games and finished top three in the Big West every single year, often winning it outright. There’s no doubt about who the alpha in the conference is, even with the recent ascendance of Santa Babs and Riverside. Turner even had one of the youngest teams in the country last season and STILL finished 2nd in the league and 107th in the country (per KenPom), outperforming his school’s preseason projected rank by 25 spots. With nearly everyone back including the HEAVY favorite for Big West Player of the Year, Irvine looks like a surefire top 100 squad and the Big West champion.

Defense is Turner’s specialty – his Eaters have finished inside the top 109 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings nine straight seasons and have cracked the top 50 thrice. Turner had arguably his best defensive squad ever last year, as the Eaters easily ranked as the Big West’s best defensive unit thanks to putting up an impenetrable forcefield inside the arc. UCI ranked 6th nationally in 2PFG% defense, per KenPom, and 2nd nationally in FG% defense at the rim, per Hoop-Math. Size, of course, was a major factor, but UCI was also excellent at playing team defense, sliding over and providing help at the drop of a hat. There’s little UCI didn’t excel in on this end of the floor last season, as this summary from Synergy shows:

The offensive end has traditionally been the weaker end under Turner, but if his discussion with Blake Lovell in the Blue Ribbon yearbook is any indication, his Eaters should be much improved on this end in ’21-22. In line with its defense, UCI does most of its damage inside the arc on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 7th in the country in ’20-21 in percentage of points scored from 2 (per KenPom). Per Hoop-Math, UCI led the nation in 2P jumper attempt rate, which is usually a bad thing unless you have a guy named Collin Welp on your team.

The Eaters feed Welp constanlty in the post or work him off rolls and pops in pick-n-roll sets. He’s a natural scorer from everywhere on the floor and as smart an offensive player as they come.

A career 39% 3P shooter, Welp is a matchup nightmare for opposing Big West forwards due to his range, deceptive quickness, size, and strength.

As if the offensive side of the ball wasn’t enough, Welp vastly improved his impact on the defensive end in ‘20-21, racking up nine more steals and five more blocks than in ’19-20 despite playing five less games. This two-way ability is even more reason he is the odds-on favorite to capture Big West POY honors.

Finding a suitable partner for Welp in the frontcourt will be a priority after 2nd Team All-Big West center Brad Greene graduated. Fan forums seem very high on Austin Johnson’s potential, a 6’9” junior with shot-blocking potential and burgeoning post skills. He’ll see a huge uptick in playing time with Greene out of the picture. 7-foot behemoth Emmanuel Tshimanga will also be a factor, especially after reportedly losing 30 pounds from last season, making him a svelte 270-pounds. Tshimanga’s imposing size is a difficult obstacle to overcome in the paint for any opposing offense.

German freshman Bent Leuchten is the center of the future, a large 7-foot human who can take up space in the paint and shoot from outside the arc. Leuchten was excellent on Germany’s U20 national team and should be an impact player in the UCI rotation in the next year or two. New Zealand freshman Akiva McBirney-Griffin also has potential to shine down the road. He’s an active, mobile, and athletic 4-man with two-way talent.

Every single player on last year’s roster was a freshman or sophomore outside of Welp and Greene, which means Turner’s backcourt was EXTREMELY young and inexperienced. That changes in 2021-22 with a full regular season and offseason under every guard’s belt. Dawson Baker is the highlight of the backcourt crew, the reigning Big West Freshman of the Year who hit 40% of his longball tries in ’20-21 while also showing his ability to handle the rock and score off the bounce. Expect a big year for Baker in ’21-22.

Point guard play will be split between Isaiah Lee and DJ Davis. Lee is the incumbent starter and of the “true PG” variety, which is to say he passes more than he shoots. While not a scorer per se, Lee is an excellent outside shooter and game manager, though he’ll need to improve on a high TO rate from last year. Davis was dynamite in the 6th man role last season and could run it back as an offensive sparkplug off the pine in ’21-22. Decision making and slowing down will be Davis’s keys to success this season, as he was prone to occasional forces and poor shot selection (as all freshmen are) on the offensive end.

JC Butler (Caron’s son) likely starts on the wing. He’s a good defender and brings solid size to the perimeter. On offense, Butler functions mostly as a bruising slasher. Turner has a slew of options to sub in for the aforementioned presumed starters. Justin Hohn and Andre Henry are looking for bigger roles in their sophomore seasons. Hohn is a shooter, Henry a bigger wing. Walk-on Ofure Ujadughele, who played in 26 games last year thanks to his stingy defense, rounds out the guard depth.

Up front, Dean Keeler offers potential as a 4 or 5 plug, especially after growing a couple inches. Hunter Ruck may also see more time in the rotation, but both returners will have to compete with UNLV transfer Devin Tillis. Tillis started the final eight games of the season for the Rebels and is a dual threat on offense with ability to shoot or put the ball on the deck.

Bottom Line: You could know nothing about UC Irvine’s team this season and still safely assume it would finish in the top three of the Big West. Russ Turner’s conference dominance is as sure a thing as death and taxes. This year UCI has the experience last year’s group was missing, combined with a little more offensive punch and that always tough as nails defense. It’s the Eaters’ league to lose.

2. UC Santa Barbara

Key Returners: Amadou Sow, Ajare Sanni, Miles Norris, Josh Pierre-Louis, Robinson Idehen, Sekou Toure
Key Losses: JaQuori McLaughlin, Devearl Ramsey, Brandon Cyrus, Destin Barnes
Key Newcomers: Calvin Wishart (Georgia Southern), Zach Harvey (Cincinnati), Ajay Mitchell, Cole Anderson

Lineup:

Outlook: Everyone expected UC Santa Barbara to be good in 2021-22, but the Gauchos exceeded even lofty expectations. UCSB finished 58th in KenPom, the program’s best in the site’s 25-year history, dominated the Big West, and nearly pulled an upset over Creighton in the NCAA Tournament. The Gauchos had experience, continuity, and an NBA-level talent in JaQuori McLaughlin leading the way. Head coach Joe Pasternack still has two of those three things, but McLaughlin’s departure leaves a major hole to fill. Pasternack has been nothing short of marvelous during his four-year tenure, winning 21+ games and 10+ Big West games in every single season. He’s built the UCSB program into a legitimate annual challenger to UC Irvine out west.

UCSB needs to find itself a point guard. McLaughlin is gone, as is full-time starter and secondary ballhandler Devearl Ramsey. Backcourt play is key in the Gaucho attack, as they like to use heavy pick-n-roll sets, cutting, and ball movement to wear down opposing defenses in a half-court focused offense. Georgia Southern transfer Calvin Wishart seems to be the leading candidate to get starting reps at the point, though he’s also an excellent off-ball weapon with a career 36%+ 3P clip. Wishart is a crafty ball handler capable of attacking the basket nearly as well as he can shoot the 3. He should find success in the Big West after sitting out a year following his transfer.

Key 2020-21 sub and former Temple guard Josh Pierre-Louis can also handle the rock. He’s a better slasher than shooter, but his quickness is what makes him really shine. JPL is a blur in the open floor and should see plenty more run with the backcourt turnover. Freshman Ajay Mitchell, a Belgian import who played in his country’s pro league and for the Belgium national team, brings length to the point of attack. The 6’4” lefty is already an ace creator who should have a storied career in Santa Babs as long as he’s with the program.

Of course, UCSB’s most important player this season doesn’t reside in its backcourt. 1st Team All-Big West forward Amadou Sow is back for his senior year looking to wreak havoc on the Big West and enhance his pro resume. Sow was a major reason the Gauchos ranked 13th in the nation in shot quality last season (per Shot Quality) – he scores at will in the post and is a dynamite lob threat off pick-n-rolls.

Sow is also quite skilled. Per Blue Ribbon, he’ll be encouraged to step out to the perimeter more this season and put his excellent shooting touch to use. If his FT% is any indication (83% on the #1 Big West FT rate), Sow could turn into a deadly floor spacer in 2021-22. In Sow, UCSB has one of the best players in all mid-major basketball and one of the favorites to take home Big West Player of the Year hardware.

Sow’s partner in crime in the frontcourt will be rangy 6’10” senior Miles Norris, an HM All-Big West selection last season and former top 30 JUCO recruit. Norris is long skinny (though apparently, he’s been lifting this offseason) who moves very well up and down the court and can shoot the triple. He and Sow form arguably the best frontcourt duo in the Big West.

Pasternack has solid depth behind his two stud big men with the return of Robinson Idehen, Jay Nagle, and Jakov Kukic. Idehen is BIG and his hands are like magnets for rebounds when he’s on the floor. Nagle offers more of a stretch 4 vibe when he’s on the floor.

On the wing look for last year’s Big West Sixth Man of the Year Ajare Sanni to step into a starting role where he’ll be counted on to score. Sanni, a former Pacific transfer, is a career 40% 3P shooter who needs little space to get off his shot. Cincinnati transfer Zach Harvey, a former 4-star top 50 recruit, also promises to be a major factor in the Gaucho rotation. Harvey didn’t live up to expectations at Cincy, but he also didn’t have much of an opportunity. He could explode at UCSB with proper coaching and minutes.

Returner Sekou Toure will add athleticism and depth to the wing, and freshman Cole Anderson might be the best shooter on the roster already. Anderson is wired to score and is one of the best 3P shooters in California HS history (it’s a big state!). Fellow freshman Ariel Bland could see the floor based solely on his physicality. At 6’7” with the ability to play the 3 or 4, Bland has a DI-ready frame and skill out to the perimeter.

Pasternack finally had an elite defense last season, though McLaughlin and Ramsey were both bloodhounds on the ball. UCSB takes away the 3 and forces opponents into isolation possessions while also locking down the defensive glass. Another key Pasternack tenant is getting back on defense and transition chances. Per Hoop-Math only eight teams in the country allowed a lower percentage of FGA in transition last season. Sow and Norris’s presence in the paint allows Pasternack’s backcourt to be more aggressive on the ball.

Bottom Line: As has been the case every season under Pasternack, UCSB is a legitimate Big West title contender in 2021-22 and a near-mortal lock to finish in the league’s top three. Sow is already a star, now the Gauchos just need one or two guards to step up and produce in the backcourt.

3. UC Riverside

Key Returners: Zyon Pullin, Flynn Cameron, Dominick Pickett, Wil Tattersall, Dragan Elkaz, Callum McRae, Angus McWilliam
Key Losses: Arinze Chidom, Jock Perry, George Willborn, Oliver Hayes-Brown
Key Newcomers: JP Moorman II (Temple), Jhaylon Martinez (UNLV)

Lineup:

Outlook: Mike Magpayo is a wizard, Harry. That’s the only explanation for his debut coaching performance, which was a clinic on how to succeed as a first-year coach in the face of adversity. Magpayo took over as interim head coach last summer following David Patrick’s late departure to join Eric Musselman’s staff at Arkansas. To make matters more challenging, there was that whole COVID-19 thing going around. But Magpayo persevered through the difficult circumstances and led his Highlanders to their best season in their 20-year DI history.

UC Riverside finished above .500 for the first time ever in the Big West, knocking off powerhouses UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara in the process. The Highlanders also finished 106th in KenPom, the program’s best finish ever and first sub-200 mark since 2003-04. So… yeah… Magpayo is pretty good. His success was a particular joy for us, as we tend to love the more analytical coaches, the category under which Magpayo squarely falls. He’s a grandkid of the Randy Bennett family tree, having served under Kyle Smith at Columbia from 2010-14. Magpayo has used Bennett’s philosophy, particularly on the defensive end, to quickly build a winning program. He also has eight players on his roster that hail from either Australia or New Zealand – very Bennett indeed.

UCR loses its two frontcourt starters from last year, and one of them, Arinze Chidom, was a 1st Team All-League player. But the Highlanders have apt replacements for Chidom and Jock Perry, and still have plenty of depth and size to throw at the opposition. Callum McRae is back after sitting out all last year. Perry’s arrival and Chidom’s ascendance made everyone forget about McRae, the 7-foot New Zealander was an HM All-Big West selection in 2020, was high usage that season for UCR, and ranked 5th in the conference in block rate. The Highlanders will be able to play through McRae on the block or hit him on rolls in their ball screen heavy attack.

Replacing Chidom is a little more challenging, but Magpayo has a prime candidate in Temple transfer JP Moorman, a 6’7” 5th year forward who was a 2.5-year starter with the Owls. Moorman gives UCR a legit shooting threat at the 4, and he should immediately be one of the best passing forwards in the league. His solid athleticism should help the Chidom transition, as well.

Frontcourt size, skill, and depth is important for Magpayo’s defensive scheme, which has become the bread and butter of the program. The Highlanders will extend full-court pressure occasionally, but their main priority is to pack the lane and make rim looks impossible. Last season UCR ranked 68th in FGA% allowed near the rim and 31st in FG% allowed near the rim (per Hoop-Math), an indication of making it difficult to a) get to the bucket and b) score at the bucket. In addition to McRae and Moorman, Magpayo has solid backup options like Angus McWilliam, Daniel Mading, and Jhaylon Martinez at his disposal. McWilliam is a good rebounder and skilled 5. Mading is a stretch 4 looking for a larger role in ’21-22. Martinez is a very large former 3/4-star recruit who sat out for UNLV last season.

The Highlanders have size all over their roster. Last season they ranked 11th in KenPom’s average height metric, and they should rank similarly in ’21-22 with every single player standing 6’3” or taller. This length makes it even harder for opposing offenses to get to the bucket. Long arms block every path like a spider web.

Magpayo’s backcourt is deeper than his frontcourt, led by returning PG Zyon Pullin, an HM All-Big West performer last season. Pullin is as steady a ball-handler as you’ll find in the Big West. He broke out as a sophomore, ranking in the top 50 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio and 5th in the conference in assist rate. Pullin is a perfect table setter in the UCR offense, one that plays primarily in the halfcourt and uses a bevy of pick-n-roll and pick-n-pop sets. He can also create his own shot and loves a little one foot fadeaway.

Flanking Pullin are last year’s wing starters Flynn Cameron and Dominick Pickett. Cameron started every game after coming over from DePaul. He found a bigger role at UCR and took advantage, leading the league in eFG% with a scorching 66% 2P clip and 42% 3P clip in Big West play. Pickett won the Big West’s “Best Hustle” award, something I did not know existed until I read about it in Blue Ribbon. He’s a 5th year player and 3-year starter, a savvy vet who plays smart and within himself.

6’7” wing Wil Tattersall is back to bomb away from deep with his set-shot, barely jumping form. As is Dragan Elkaz, a former starter who missed all but two games last season due to injury. Both wings are over 40% from deep on their careers. Quinton Ford will remain a deeper backup PG option. Freshmen Kobe Jerome (Ty’s brother) and Jeffrey Ofoedu, an athletic wing, are a year or two away from contributing.

Bottom Line: Riverside will once again be a deep, physical, and defensively menacing squad in 2021-22 capable of finishing in the top three of the league. Magpayo’s 3P-focused offense, which shot triples at the 20th highest rate in the country and buried them at the 39th highest rate in the country, will still be potent and bolstered by a deep frontcourt. The magic continues in year two of Mike Magpayo.

Tier 2

4. Hawaii

Key Returners: Junior Madut, Samuta Avea, Mate Colina, JoVon McClanahan, Noel Coleman, Bernardo da Silva
Key Losses: James Jean-Marie, Casdon Jardine, Justin Webster, Biwali Bayles, Justin Hemsley
Key Newcomers: Juan Munoz (Longwood), Kamaka Hepa (Texas), Jerome Derosiers (Princeton), Amoro Lado (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Hawaii has been quietly solid under Eran Ganot. In addition to the program’s excellent 2016 Tourney team, the Rainbow Warriors have always finished at least .500 in Big West play during Ganot’s 6-year tenure, and last year they finally cracked the KenPom top 200 after a 4-year drought. Despite playing zero DI non-conference opponents, Hawaii came into league play strong, defeating UC Riverside on the road and later UC Irvine in Honolulu. Inconsistency has plagued Hawaii in recent seasons, as evidenced by its losses to Fullerton and Northridge last year. To truly compete near the top of a tough Big West, those type of losses cannot happen.

Hawaii loses several key pieces from last year’s squad, but it does get two players back from opt-out / injury. In addition, Ganot brings in a very promising transfer class, which could result in a better Warrior team than last season.

Honorable Mention All-Big West guard Junior Madut returns to lead the Warriors, along with senior wing Samut Avea, who opted out last season. Madut made an immediate impact on the Hawaii lineup after his redshirt season following a transfer from the JUCO ranks. He can score and defend multiple spots with his quickness, size, and length.

Avea is arguably Hawaii’s most important player this season, a bona fide team leader who, like Madut, can score the ball. Avea is a better outside shooter than Madut and can play above the rim thanks to his plus athleticism and long arms.

Multi-positionality is a theme on this year’s Hawaii roster. Ganot has several interchangeable wings and guards who can handle the ball, play different spots, and guard several positions. In addition to Madut and Avea, Noel Coleman, JoVon McClanahan, Juan Munoz, and Amoro Lado will provide firepower in the backcourt.

Coleman is a former San Diego transfer, a defensive guard and career 38%+ 3P shooter who can handle the ball when necessary. McClanahan can play either guard spot, though his quickness, compact frame, and strength makes him better on the ball. In JUCO, McClanahan was a big-time scorer and accurate shooter – he could take a nice leap in ’21-22 after a full offseason under Ganot. Munoz comes by way of Longwood where he was a 2nd Team All-Big South performer on a surprisingly competitive team. Like Coleman, Munoz can play point or off the rock. He’s a career 39% 3P shooter on over 400 attempts and doubles as a sticky on-ball defender on the other end. Lado, another two-way player arrives from JUCO powerhouse College of Southern Idaho where he connected on 47% of his longball tries. Sophomore Beon Riley likely continues his deep reserve role despite the impressive size he brings to the wing.

Ganot’s frontcourt should be in good hands with the return of 7-foot center Mate Colina, an Australian product who took a big jump in production in 2020-21. Colina graded out as “excellent” on post-ups per Synergy last year and ranked in the top six in the Big West in both OR% and DR%. We should see another improvement in his game this season.

Texas transfer Kamaka Hepa will likely start next to Colina giving Hawaii a tantalizing 4-out look on offense. Hepa is known as a deadly stretch 4 and was a borderline top 50 recruit coming out of high school. With his pedigree, versatility, and high-level experience Hepa could end up being one of the better players in the Big West this season. If that comes to fruition, Hawaii’s ceiling raises considerably.

Bernardo da Silva is back after playing just five games last season due to injury. He started four games as a freshman and will serve as the backup 5 this year behind Colina. Da Silva can be a force on the glass on both ends. Princeton transfer Jerome Derosiers is a perfect candidate to spell Hepa with his big 6’7” 240-lb frame and ability to hit the 3. Derosiers hasn’t played in a year, but he’s a career 37%+ 3P shooter and can put the ball on the floor against overly aggressive closeouts. Shooting freshmen, Brock Heffner, a stretch 4, and Jaka Prevodnik, a wing, round out the Hawaii roster.

Ganot teams have tended to lean into the 3-ball, and last year Hawaii shot the 2nd highest rate of 3s in the Big West while ranking 4th in 3P%. This year’s team is stacked with shooting all over the roster, suggesting the Warriors will be a perimeter-oriented squad once again. Pick-n-roll action is a staple in Ganot’s attack, as is floor spacing, accomplished with a sharp-shooting 4-man.

Hawaii wasn’t great defensively in ’20-21, but Ganot teams always run opponents off the 3P line, ranking 9th in 3PA rate allowed last season and 4th in ’19-20. Hawaii also denies spot-up chances, ranking 3rd nationally last year in defensive assist rate. Ganot likes to force opponents to beat his teams off the bounce versus the pass. Rim protection was the primary issue for Hawaii last year, as was forcing turnovers despite applying at least a token full-court press on nearly 10% of all possessions. Rim protection should be improved this season with da Silva back but could still be a source of vulnerability.

Bottom Line: The net roster change from last season could result in a better on-court product in 2021-22. Shooting, talent, versatility, and ball-handling is found all over this squad, giving Ganot a real shot at his first top three Big West finish since 2016.

5. Cal State Bakersfield

Key Returners: Justin Edler-Davis, Shaun Williams, Shawn Stith, Justin McCall, Cameron Smith, Grehlon Easter
Key Losses: Taze Moore, De’Monte Buckingham, Czar Perry, Travis Henson, Ronne Readus
Key Newcomers: David Walker (South Alabama), Antavion Collum (Ole Miss), Kaleb Higgins (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Year one in the Big West was a success for Cal State Bakersfield, as the Roadrunners finished a respectable 9-7 in league play behind a gaggle of UC schools. CSUB came over from the WAC, a conference in which it found success as a young DI program, making an NCAA Tournament under Rod Barnes in 2016 and cracking the KenPom top 100 in 2017. Last season was the Runners’ best since 2017, fueled by a roster that ranked 2nd in experience, 22nd in continuity, and 19th in bench minutes. Barnes enters his 11th year at the helm of Bakersfield looking to build on his inaugural Big West campaign. He’ll have to do so without three of his best players from 2020-21.

Taze Moore went to Houston and De’Monte Buckingham went to UNC Greensboro, but Barnes still has plenty of firepower at his disposal. Hybrid forwards have been something of a specialty for Barnes recently, and he has two returning in Justin Edler-Davis and Justin McCall (together, “the Justins”). Edler-Davis was an HM All-Big West honoree last season and started every game for the Runners, acting as a team leader on and off the floor. He’s invaluable to an offense that doesn’t prioritize shooting, knocking down 38% of his 3P tries in ’20-21.

Like all wings that play for Barnes, JED is an excellent rebounder and capable of manning the 3 or 4 spot.

McCall leans more “4” than “3” and bruises more than he shoots. He is a relentless glass crasher and solid finisher, a big, strong, aggressive wing who can earn the Runners plenty of extra possessions. He’ll have competition for minutes this season from Ole Miss transfer Antavion Collum, yet another hybrid forward oozing versatility. Collum was a 4-star recruit coming out of HS but hasn’t seen much run in college. He can play inside or outside, shoot, rebound, and defend.

Offensive rebounding is paramount to CSUB’s offense. The runners have ranked 3rd, 14th, and 3rd nationally the last three seasons in OR% under Barnes and grabbed 38.5% of their misses in 2020-21. Bakersfield had a decent shooting team last season, but it prioritizes rim running, post play, and hammering the boards above all else. Barnes slows the tempo down on this end, preferring to play in the halfcourt and to leave his competition sore for days to come.

Frontcourt play is key to CSUB’s success (the whole glass / post thing), but Bakersfield might be a tad thinner here than prior year. Ronne Readus’s departure following a serious car accident in April certainly hurts the Runners’ top-line size, and Shawn Stith is recovering from an ACL tear he suffered in late February. Per Google machine, an ACL typically takes around nine months to recover, so he could conceivably be ready for November. Stith is a BIG body and solid rebounder who pushes people around with ease at 265-pounds. If Stith isn’t ready, we’ll either see some smaller lineups with Collum playing the “5” or a major jump in PT from Ray Somerville, a 6’10” center with shot-blocking potential. JUCO transfer Brian Washington could also be an option up front; he’s a solid athlete but mostly a rebounder. Jack Schoemann, a former Colorado State Ram, likely retains his deep reserve role.

Guard play seems to be in good hands despite the losses of Moore and Perry. Former K State transfer and STL native Shaun Williams appears ready for full-time starting PG duties after starting thrice last season and posting the Big West’s 4th best assist rate. Williams is a high usage PG who can shoot, draw fouls, and create for his teammates. Don’t be surprised if he puts up some gaudy stats in ’21-22.

South Alabama transfer David Walker could be THE player to watch in yellow and blue this season (side note about blue – as you can see in the first GIF, CSUB has the bluest court in the history of courts… it’s difficult to watch their home games). Walker was a superstar in the junior college ranks but only played six games for USA before leaving the team in December. He’s an extremely dynamic slasher who possesses masterful footwork on drives through the lane.

Walker likes to shoot and will be a high usage player, but man can he score. On December 4th, he torched Auburn for 18 PTS on 7/12 shooting. If he stays with the team, Walker could lead the Runners in scoring and earn a spot on an All-Conference team.

Former Lamar transfer Grehlon Easter, a shooting guard in the most literal sense, returns to provide depth in the backcourt. JUCO transfer Kaleb Higgins, a point guard who averaged 19.1 PPG and shot 39% from deep for Holmes CC, the same JUCO where Perry came from, will take on a large role in his first year in B-Field (do people say “B-Field”?). Higgins’ quickness and passing are his greatest assets. Italy native Dalph Panopio played for South Plains JUCO last year and brings shooting to the fold. Freshman Ivan Reynolds rounds out the roster.

Defensively, it should come as no surprise that the Runners are good on the glass. What might come as a surprise is CSUB was also very good at stopping transition opportunities last year despite its focus on crashing the offensive boards. Barnes also likes to throw a token full-length man pressure at his opponents, “pressing” on nearly 30% of his team’s defensive possessions last year. He’ll also add a trapping full-court zone press as a changeup every now and again. With CSUB’s positional versatility and athleticism, it could be one of the better defensive squads in the conference. Barnes has had two elite defensive units during his career at Bakersfield; his 2016 team ranked 50th in KenPom’s Adj. DE rankings and his 2017 team ranked 20th.

Bottom Line: Bakersfield might not exceed last year’s strong league mark, but the Runners won’t fall very far. Barnes has built a consistent program, and his style makes every game a war. There’s a high floor here with maybe a hair shorter of a ceiling than ’20-21.

6. Cal State Fullerton

Key Returners: Tray Maddox Jr., Dante Maddox Jr., Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Vincent Lee, Tory San Antonio, Jalen Harris, Landis Spivey
Key Losses: Josh Hall, Doctor Bradley, Johnny Wang
Key Newcomers: EJ Anosike (Tennessee), Damari Milstead (San Francisco), Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia (UCF), Lado Laku (Texas A&M Corpus Christi), Grayson Carper (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Fullerton fans would like to forget the 2020-21 season ever happened. It’s not too hard – the Titans played just one game before the calendar flipped to 2021, zero DI non-conference games, and 16 games overall. Injuries also reared their ugly head, as two key contributors were sidelined for what amounted to one-third of the year. Still, Dedrique Taylor’s team was competitive. CSUF took down a good Bakersfield team on the road and defeated the mighty Anteaters of Irvine in Fullerton. The Titans turned a very low 326th preseason KenPom ranking into 255th at season’s end. Taylor has kept his program’s KenPom rank steady over his eight-year tenure. In five of those seasons, CSUF has finished between 249 and 264. This season, Taylor has a real shot to lead his team to its best finish since 2017-18, the year it crashed the NCAA Tournament.

Why the optimism? Well for starters, Fullerton returns four of its starters and seven players overall who started a game in ’20-21. Chief among those is Tray Maddox Jr., a 2nd Team All-Big West selection last year and the undisputed leader of the Titans heading into ’21-22. Maddox was immediately CSUF’s best player after arriving from Oakland. He ranked 3rd in the Big West in minutes and shot 45% from deep in league play. Per Synergy, Maddox graded out as “excellent” in both isolation and pick-n-roll sets; he’ll be the Titans’ leading scorer and one of the most feared weapons in the Big West this season.

Taylor has ball handlers out the wazoo on this team. Returners Dante Maddox Jr. (no relation), Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Tory San Antonio, and Jalen Harris can all play point or off the ball, as can San Francisco transfer Damari Milstead. Maddox shot 43% from deep as a freshman and is a tough guard who can get to the foul line and elevate through traffic. Like his similarly named teammate, Maddox graded out as “excellent” off ball screens in ’20-21 per Synergy. Wrightsell can shoot as well and lead the league in FT% as a rookie. He could be the best option on the ball with the way Maddox can catch fire from deep. San Antonio is yet another shooter who can handle it, but he’s most impactful on defense where he led the Titans in block rate despite standing just 6’3”.

Harris missed six games last year due to injury, but he’s another strong combo guard when healthy. His playing time is in jeopardy, though, with Milstead coming to town. Milstead struggled at USF last season, but he was one of Grand Canyon’s better players back in 2018-19. He’s very quick and a menace defensively causing turnovers and sprinting the other way. Taylor’s final returning guard, Landis Spivey, is back to provide deadeye shooting from the perimeter. Spivey’s former teammate at Columbia College, Grayson Carper, could see some run this season as yet another perimeter shooting threat.

Yes, there is a theme with all these guards: shooting. Cal State Fullerton was the 14th best 3P shooting team in the country in 2020-21.

That guard nucleus did most of the heavy lifting on offense last year. Taylor likes to play uptempo and his Titan squad boasted the 2nd fastest attack in the Big West last season. CSUF relied on spot-ups and isolation to score; its guards got to the line with regularity, but post play was mostly a non-factor.

Vincent Lee did his best last season manning the frontcourt, but he was the only serviceable forward who stood over 6’8”. Lee is very good on the glass, particularly offensively where he ranked 4th in the league in OR%, but he’s only a so-so back-to-the-basket scorer. Defensively, CSUF was destroyed near the bucket, as Lee, despite his size, was not a rim protector whatsoever. More on the defense in a bit.

Taylor clearly recognized his team’s frontcourt shortcomings, so he went out and got three shiny new forwards from the transfer portal to plug into the rotation. EJ Anosike is the biggest name arriving to campus, a Tennessee transfer who also starred at Sacred Heart. Anosike struggled in the SEC, but he averaged a double-double at Sacred Heart and earned 1st Team All-NEC honors in 2020.

Anosike’s physicality is his greatest attribute. He should dominate the glass and be a legit post scorer for the Titans this season. He can also shoot past the arc, making him a nice complement to the more paint-bound Lee.

UCF transfer Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia and Texas A&M Corpus Christi transfer Lado Laku will add significant depth to the CSUF frontline. Doumbia began his career at South Carolina and brings rebounding, rim protection, and a little floor spacing to Fullerton. Laku’s potential is sky high with his crazy length and significant bounce; he’s a natural shot-blocker and developing post scorer.

Ok, so the defense. It was ATROCIOUS last season. The good news is twofold: 1) it can’t be any worse in ’21-22 and 2) it’s due for some major shooting correction. Opponents shot 39.7% from deep against CSUF last year. Only two teams in the country allowed a higher percentage, so expect that to come crashing back down to earth. With added size, Taylor hopes to shore up a half-court look that was repeatedly beaten at the rim and on the glass – Anosike alone makes this unit 10x better. Fullerton was BURNED in transition last year, as well. Per Hoop-Math the Titans ranked 321st in %FGA allowed in transition and 327th in eFG% allowed in transition. Taylor told Blue Ribbon he expects Tray Maddox to have an enormous impact defensively. Milstead is a positive addition on this end, and Wrightsell ranked 8th in the Big West in steal rate last season. Given Taylor has coached two top 140 defenses (per KenPom) during his Fullerton tenure, it’s safe to say the Titans improve, perhaps considerably, on this end.         

Bottom Line: Fullerton is a dark horse to make some noise in the Big West this season. The Titans have plenty of talent, depth at every position, and robust experience. CSUF could be a legitimate threat to the UC schools at the top of the conference.

7. UC Davis

Key Returners: Ezra Manjon, Caleb Fuller, Elijah Pepper, Christian Anigwe, BJ Shaw, Cameron Ba, Aaron Murphy, Ade Adebayo
Key Losses: Kennedy Koehler, Damion Squire
Key Newcomers: Kane Milling (Nevada)

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s hard to glean much from UC Davis’ 2020-21 campaign. The Aggies were limited to just 18 games due to COVID and at one point went over a month without playing a single contest (Dec. 4 – Jan. 22). The Aggies finished 6-4 in the Big West, but those wins were against Long Beach State (2x), CSUN, Cal Poly (2x), and Hawaii. Per KenPom the Aggies had the easiest schedule in the conference and finished as the 25th luckiest team in the nation. UCD has been competitive under Jim Les the past decade, so with their two best players returning and four of their top five scorers back, we should expect the Aggies to be a top-half Big West team in 2021-22.

Except for the 2019-20 campaign, UCD normally skews towards the defensive side of the ball with offense often coming at a premium. Last season the Aggies were once again among the best in the country at forcing turnovers, ranking 10th in defensive TO rate. UCD has ranked 1st or 2nd in the Big West in TO rate in every season since 2015-16. Pressure in the half-court is key to UCD’s success – when opposing teams get past the initial layer of pressure, they tend to score against the lack of interior resistance. The Aggies were one of the smaller teams in the country last year and likely start four guards again in ’21-22. Their goal on the defensive end is to create steals or errant passes in an effort to keep opponents from exposing their soft underbelly.

Offensively, the Aggies rely on rim attack and getting to the foul line to put points on the board. Last season UCD ranked 11th nationally in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe, a result of its ability to draw fouls and get into the teeth of the defense as well as its inability to shoot. It’s not a pretty product on this end of the floor – bricks fly left and right and UCD pounds the o-glass to keep possessions alive. Per Hoop-Math UCD ranked 36th nationally in percentage of FGA at the rim in ’21-22. A guard centric attack leads the offense primarily with ball screens, hand-offs, and dribble drives.

While outside shooting isn’t a priority offensively, the Aggies do have a handful of players who can stroke from distance. Chief among them is Elijah Pepper, a 2nd Team All-Big West selection last season who really improved in his sophomore campaign. Pepper checked in with a 44% 3P% and led all players in conference play with a 46.4% outside clip.

On the other end, Pepper is one of UCD’s feistiest defenders, leading the league in steal rate in ’21-22.

Nevada transfer Kane Milling will provide shooting as well, and he likely steps into a vacant starting spot on day one. The lefty will look to improve on career shooting clips that do not reflect his true ability. Junior guard Cameron Ba returns to provide a pack of shooting punch off the pine.

Les hopes his star point guard Ezra Manjon can rediscover his outside shot after going sub-20% on low volume last season. Shooting is the only weakness to Manjon’s offensive game, which features rock solid ball-handling, passing, and driving ability. Manjon exceled coming off ball screens last season, and he’s the Aggies’ best one-on-one option late in the shot clock.

As mentioned above, Les mainly plays four guards at all times, but that “guard” moniker can be misleading. 6’5” senior Caleb Fuller is listed as a guard on the UCD roster, but he’s every bit a 4 as any other forward in the conference. Fuller has shown multiple times his explosive scoring promise, like when he dropped 30 on CSUN last year, and now he should see full-time starter minutes this season. Fuller can shoot a bit from deep, but he’s most effective barreling into weaker defenders with the ball or even posting on the block. His strength makes him a tough matchup, and he holds his own defensively against bigger forwards.

Fuller will line up alongside Christian Anigwe, one of the few true bigs on the UCD roster. Anigwe, formerly of San Jose State, is a fantastic offensive rebounder, ranking 2nd in the league and top 50 in the country in OR% last season. He’s one-dimensional offensively, taking nearly 85% of his shot attempts at the rim last season (Hoop-Math), but he doesn’t need to do more than that given UCD’s other offensive options. Limiting foul trouble will be Anigwe’s key improvement point this season.

Forward Aaron Murphy, a paint-bound 6’6” brute, will seek more PT with his rebounding prowess. As will 6’11” Italian Francesco Borra, the biggest player on the team. Caleb McGill offers a little more perimeter skill at 6’8”, but it’s unclear if he’ll get much run in his sophomore season.

In the backcourt, BJ Shaw and Ade Adebayo return as UCD’s most experience bench pieces outside of Ba. Shaw is a bigger wing who can man the 4 and prefers slashing to shooting. Adebayo is a turnover prone (to this point) wing looking for improvement.

Freshmen Sione Lose, a skinny and smooth wing, Cameron Niles, a bigger athletic wing, and Leo DeBruhl, a talented scoring combo guard, could all conceivably crack the rotation at some point this year. Niles is probably the readiest frame-wise, but DeBruhl is arguably the most skilled. JUCO forward Patrick Lambey rounds out the newcomers and frontcourt depth.

Bottom Line: There’s enough talent on this roster – specifically the starting five – for UC Davis to make a push near the top of the league this season. But depth, shooting, and size continue to be an issue for the Aggies and likely hold them back from a postseason prize.

Tier 3

8. UC San Diego

Key Returners: Toni Rocak, Bryce Pope, Jace Roquemore, Jake Killingsworth, Matt Gray, Kaden Rasheed
Key Losses: Hugh Baxter, Gabe Hadley, Mikey Howell
Key Newcomers: J’Raan Brooks (Washington), Vuk Vulikic (UTEP)

Lineup:

Outlook: UC San Diego’s first season in Division I got off to a rocky start, as the Tritons had to wait until December 22nd to play their first game and until January 9th(!!) to play their first game against a DI opponent. That DI opponent happened to be Big West power UC Irvine, not an ideal way to break into the big leagues. But the Tritons kept that game competitive against the mighty Anteaters and in fact were far better than their record suggested in 2020-21. UCSD was 7-10 overall last season with three of those wins coming against DII teams.

The Big West enforced a stupid “transition” rule where UCSD is not a full-fledged member of the conference during its 4-year transition period to DI, meaning the Tritons’ “conference” games don’t count towards the overall standings. Hypothetically, UCSD went 4-10 in the Big West last year, but even that record is misleading. The Tritons played UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, and UC Riverside (the three best teams in the league) a combined eight times (and Cal State Bakersfield twice), while skipping contests entirely with Cal Poly, Long Beach, Hawaii, and Cal State Northridge. Had it played a normal Big West slate, its very possible UCSD finishes 2020-21 with a winning “conference” mark.

But enough dwelling on the past, let’s look forward. UCSD brings a good chunk of its production back from prior year with one major exception: point guard Mikey Howell, the school’s all-time assist leader. Replacing Howell will be no easy task, and there’s not really a good option among the returners. Redshirt sophomore Jace Roquemore is the most qualified for PG reps, but at 6’5” he’s more of a slashing versus a true set-up man. Senior Kaden Rasheed is technically a walk-on, but he’s a steady presence who can shoot the rock and appears to have the confidence of coach Eric Olen.

The most likely and best solution (in this young man’s humble opinion) is to start UTEP transfer Vuk Vulikic at the 1 and let him run the offense. Vulikic is a natural point guard with great size at 6’4” and was a player I thought had a chance to shine in year one with the Miners. Surprisingly, Vulikic didn’t see much run at UTEP despite excellent efficiency stats. He’s a very skilled ball handler, creator, and passer, one who can breakout this season in Big West play.

Olen’s offense is ball screen heavy, 3-point heavy, and ball movement heavy. UCSD ranked 6th nationally in 3PA rate last season, 5th in assist rate, and 1st in percentage of plays finished via the roll man in pick-n-roll situations. The Tritons work the ball and get good high percentage looks from behind the arc or near the hoop. Only two teams attempted a lower rate of 2P jumpers last season, a sign of smart shot selection. Howell was a wizard feeding rollers off ball screens, and Vulikic can be effective as well if given the opportunity. He’ll have Howell’s favorite screening partner in the frontcourt in senior Toni Rocak.

Rocak LED THE COUNTRY in usage last season and led the Tritons in scoring and rebounding despite coming off the bench. This guy is very good, and all signs point to him ascending ever higher this season. Rocak was efficient in his high usage last year and drew the 3rd highest rate of fouls per 40 in the country. His mobility and ability to shoot the 3 makes him a tough matchup for slower forwards on the perimeter:

And he possesses excellent footwork and skill on the block, making him very difficult to stop in the post:

Look for Rocak to be one of the premier forwards in the Big West this season.

Rocak has an intriguing frontcourt mate this season with the arrival of J’Raan Brooks, a former top 100 recruit and USC / Washington forward. Brooks has been used sparingly at his previous stops, but he could really blossom in the friendlier confines of mid-major ball (and under better coaching – shots fired?). With his ability to space the floor, Brooks can play the 4 or 5 next to Rocak and give the Tritons an extremely mobile frontcourt with size.

Filling in the wing spots will be shooters Bryce Pope and Jake Killingsworth, both fulltime starters in ’20-21. Pope hit over 38% of his 3PA last year and is very catch-and-shoot focused offensively. Killingsworth began his collegiate career with Columbia back in the fall of 2016. Like Pope, he is an excellent shooter and lethal spot-up threat. Fellow returners Matt Gray, a stretch big from Australia who can also score in the post and provide rim stoppage, and Jake Kosakowski, a depth piece on the wing, round out UCSD’s returning rotation.

Olen was clearly focused on adding size with his 2021 class, bringing in forwards Fallou Cisse, Cameron Brimhall, Francis Nwaokorie, and Justin DeGraaf. Cisse is a 3-star per 247Sports and is a potential rim protector. Nwaokorie is the meatiest of the bunch, a load of a 5-man able to push people around on the block. DeGraaf can play on the wing and brings skill, shooting, and toughness. Two guards also join the squad this season in freshman Mike Pearson Jr. and Harvard transfer Reed Farley. Pearson could see action given the thin depth chart at the point position. Farley has missed most of his collegiate career to due injury (and the Ivy’s COVID stoppage) and has played just two games since the 2017-18 season.

Bottom Line: This year will give us a better idea of how good the Tritons really are. Last season is difficult to evaluate given UCSD’s lack of non-conference competition and a stacked Big West slate. Olen enters his 9th year at the helm at a program he built into a DII power. His offense should hum like it did at times last season, and his defense *should* improve with added size.

9. Long Beach State

Key Returners: Joe Hampton, Jadon Jones, Trever Irish, Jordan Roberts, RJ Rhoden, Romelle Mansel, Drew Cobb, Colin Slater
Key Losses: Isaiah Washington, Chance Hunter, Michael Carter
Key Newcomers: Joel Murray (DII), Raymond Hawkins (Alabama), Eddie Scott (Penn), Tobias Rotegaard (UAB)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Beach dealt with a myriad of COVID issues last year, managing to play just 18 games in a frustrating 2020-21 season. On top of several pauses, two players opted out for part of the year, leaving the 49ers less than full strength for most of their campaign. Still, despite the 6-12 mark LBSU was competitive. The Beach kept a lot of games close and outperformed 2019-20’s analytical ranking. This will be Dan Monson’s 15th year at the helm of LBSU, and there are some fans out there wondering if it should be his last. The Beach was a Big West powerhouse under Monson at one point, but hasn’t won more than nine games in conference play (or finished over .500 overall) since 2016. With its three top scorers from last season departing, it will be an uphill battle to compete near the top of the league in 2021-22.

Monson plays an uptempo style, relying on his quick guards to force the issue in the open floor and put up a smattering of points. The Beach were the 14th fastest team on offense in the country last season (KenPom) and ranked 5th in highest initial FGA% on transition (Hoop-Math). Offense wasn’t a strong suit for LBSU in ’20-21 despite the best efforts of Isaiah “Jelly Fam” Washington. The Niners turned the ball over constantly and earned very little second chance opportunities.

Success on the offensive end of the floor this season will rely heavily on the development of last year’s young backcourt, the return to form of a few vets, and the impact of DII transfer Joel Murray.

Murray will be counted on to help make up for Washington’s lost production. The 6’0” senior averaged 23.3 PPG for the DII National Championship runner-up last season, was a 2x DII All-American, and a 3x All-Defense team member in his conference. Murray is wired to score and can play on or off the ball alongside returning PG Colin Slater. He should see plenty of minutes for the Beach this season and compete for starts.

Slater opted out the first half of last season but was a key piece during the second semester. In the final three games the former Tulane transfer averaged 15 PPG, using his aggressiveness and quickness to get to the bucket and score nearly at will. Like Murray, Slater will be essential for a team that lost so much backcourt scoring firepower.

Two rising sophomores will look to assume bigger roles in 2021-22, especially Jadon Jones who could be one of the bigger breakout candidates in the Big West this season. Jones had a huge Big West Conference Tourney last year, averaging 18.5 PPG over two games. He’s a money shooter (45% from 3) and can defend on the other end. RJ Rhoden, Jones’s fellow sophomore, struggled with turnovers and finishing inside the arc during his rookie year, but he did shoot 53% from downtown on 15 attempts. He’ll look to provide shooting off the pine behind Jones and Co. this season.

On the wing, look for seniors Drew Cobb and Eddie Scott to compete for minutes and starts. Cobb was a partial starter for the Beach his first two seasons in uniform and functions as a slashing wing on offense. Scott comes to Long Beach by way of Penn where he was an 11-game starter and team leader in 2019-20. His size and athleticism will allow Scott to shift up and play the 4 in Monson’s smaller lineups, giving LBSU plenty of versatility on the floor.

Three freshmen, Aboubacar Traore, AJ Neal, and AJ George will look to crack the backcourt rotation as well. Traore is an Ivory Coast native but played his HS ball in Canada. He’s a very athletic wing who can defend and score, and one who could see major minutes sooner rather than later. Neal is a 3-star top 150 prospect, an athletic and bouncy PG who can the offense. George is a versatile wing, another plus athlete with multi-positional ability.

When the Beach wasn’t running in the open floor last season it was often playing through the Joe Hampton in the post. The 6’8” forward is back for his second season in Long Beach looking to continue his role as one of LBSU’s offensive focal points.

A former 4-star recruit out of high school, Hampton is a skilled post player with plenty of length to be a shot deterrer on the other end. He should have the starting 5 job on lockdown to begin the year.

Monson has plenty of depth in his frontcourt – well, at least he has plenty of bodies. Trever Irish, Jordan Roberts, and Romelle Mansel have all played significant minutes during their Beach careers. Irish is a 7-footer who can protect the rim, though he isn’t very mobile or skilled offensively. Roberts is more mobile and can play on the wing as a 4 or alone in the paint as a 5, though he’s never been efficient offensively. Mansel can space the floor but leaves much to be desired on the defensive end.

Alabama transfer Raymond Hawkins will add even more size to the frontline, one year removed from a knee injury that cost him his ’20-21 season, Hawkins never really played at Bama after graduating HS as a 3-star recruit. Tobias Rotegaard was also an after-thought at his prior school, UAB, but he could see more opportunity at Beach where his floor spacing abilities could come in handy.

With all that size you’d expect Beach to be a good rebounding team, but it was utter trash last season on the glass. That poor rebounding effort weighed down an otherwise solid defense, which was also helped by a heaping of 3-point shooting luck. Opponents shot just 31% from deep against Beach in Big West play, the lowest in the conference. Monson will throw in plenty of zone in the half-court and makes it his goal to keep the ball out of the lane. His teams have been susceptible to the longball more often than not during his LBSU tenure, but if the opposition is missing, all is well. An improvement on the defensive glass would make this team a good defensive squad – they have the length, athleticism, and speed to take care of business on the perimeter.

Bottom Line: The past five years under Monson have looked drastically different from the eight years preceding them. LBSU has turned into a middling Big West program, and it’s difficult to make a compelling case that it will turn things around in 2021-22. The talent is there to make noise in the upper half of the league, but lost production and recent history has me hesitant to call the Beach a conference contender.

10. Cal State Northridge

Key Returners: Darius Brown, Lance Coleman, Brendan Harrick, Miles Brookins, Atin Wright, Fidelis Okereke,
Key Losses: TJ Starks, Festus Ndumanya, Alex Merkviladze, Ron Artest III, Amound Anderson, Vante Hendrix***
Key Newcomers: Darius Beane (Northern Illinois), Onyi Eyisi (Fordham), Elijah Hardy (Portland State), Christian Gray (Fresno State), Miles James (East Carolina)

*** Hendrix is not on the roster as of this publishing date

Lineup:

Outlook: The Mark Gottfried era might already be at an end at CSUN. Rules violations and NCAA investigations forced the former NC State coach into suspension this offseason on the eve of his 4th year in Northridge. Gottfried has kept the Matadors competitive during his tenure, and even led a 10-6 Big West squad to a two-way tie for 2nd in the conference in 2019-20. But the assumption going forward is he won’t be on the sidelines in ’21-22. In his stead steps interim head coach Trent Johnson.

Johnson is a veteran coach who previously led the Nevada, Stanford, LSU, and TCU basketball programs. He came over to CSUN in July after a stint on Mark Fox’s coaching staff at California. Johnson has had his ups and downs as a head coach, but CSUN could do a whole lot worse in terms of a stopgap while the Gottfried situation gets ironed out. Because Johnson joins his new team late, he’ll have to play catchup to get his players up to speed. With five DI transfers being added to the fold, that’s easier said than done.

CSUN’s offense was its better half last season, riding the coattails of TJ Starks, the former A&M Aggie who poured in over 20 PPG for the Matadors on his way to capturing the Big West NCOY award. With Starks gone, this year’s offense has significantly less pop. Starks was elite at scoring in isolation or off ball screens, plus he had a legitimate big man to play off in Alex Merkviladze, who hit the transfer portal this offseason. Gottfried was all about playing uptempo and in transition; Johnson has tailored his pace to his team in years past, so it’s possible that stays consistent in ’21-22.

Starks’s backcourt partner is back for another year. Darius Brown II was a 2nd Team All-Big West honoree last season and another bright spot for the CSUN attack. Brown led the league in O-rating, ranked 3rd in assists, and 4th in 3P%. His miniscule turnover rate helped the Matadors rank highly in ball security, and he’ll be one of the better guards in the league this coming season.

One of CSUN’s two new transfer guards, Darius Beane or Elijah Hardy, likely starts alongside Brown. Beane is a combo guard who possesses plus length and athleticism. He began his career at SIU and can be a useful player on both ends of the floor. Hardy comes south from Portland State and also spent time at Washington. He’s a scoring guard who can run the offense, but he’s never been efficient. Defensively he’s sure to have an impact after leading the Big Sky in steal rate last season.

Returner Brendan Harrick (Jim Harrick’s great nephew) and East Carolina import Miles James will duke it out for playing time on the wing, but both are behind Lance Coleman who will look to show last season’s hot start was no fluke. Coleman, a big wing, was limited to eight games due to injury, but he was excellent in those contests. He can score off the bounce or by way of the 3, the latter being his preferred method after attempting 56 of them in those eight games. Harrick is a “shooter” but he’s sub-30% for his career from deep. James can handle the ball and adds size to the perimeter. Atin Wright, a sophomore 2-guard, showed he could heat up last season by scoring 16 PTS in CSUN’s final contest and 22 PTS in a January row with Fullerton. He’ll be in the mix for minutes off the bench.

CSUN is supposed to have former Utah and New Mexico transfer Vante Hendrix back for another year, but he’s currently missing from its roster page. Hendrix is a scorer and two-way player, one of the Matadors more talented assets. If he’s gone, frontcourt scoring comes at a premium. Returners Miles Brookins and Fidelis Okereke are not scorers, neither is Fordham transfer Onyi Eyisi, but you could guess that from simply knowing he comes from Fordham. All three are good rebounders and add something defensively. Okereke is built like a MAC truck, Brookins is long, and Eyisi is gigantic with shot-blocking chops. Fresno State transfer Christian Gray is the most talented of the frontcourt group. He’s a strong, powerful forward who adds a bit more scoring punch, though his best asset is his rebounding.

With that frontcourt rotation, CSUN’s defense has to improve from an awful product last season. Johnson has also skewed more towards this end of the floor during his coaching career. His teams always run opponents off the 3-point line, a contrast with Gottfried, who mixed in a considerable amount of zone. And Johnson’s defenses have historically been strong in the interior, which matches up favorably with his CSUN personnel.

Bottom Line: CSUN has some talent but it’s ultimately a bottom-half Big West squad this season. The coaching issue is certainly a factor, but without Starks and Merkviladze, CSUN’s offense is due to tank from last season. While its defense should improve, it might not be enough to overcome the offensive decline, player personnel turnover, and coaching change.

Tier 4

11. Cal Poly

Key Returners: Alimamy Koroma, Brantly Stevenson, Camren Pierce, Tuukka Jaakkola, Kobe Sanders, Aidan Prukop, Kyle Colvin
Key Losses: Colby Rogers, Keith Smith, Mark Crowe, Riley Till, Dyson Koehler
Key Newcomers: Jacob Davison (Eastern Washington), Ajani Kennedy (UT Martin), Julien Franklin (Oregon State), Trevon Taylor (James Madison)

Lineup:

Outlook: Cal Poly hasn’t been good in quite some time, folks. The mighty Mustangs have finished dead last in the Big West three straight seasons and haven’t cracked the KenPom top 300 since 2015-16. John Smith inherited a tough situation. In his first year, he had to deal with an entirely new squad; last year, he had to instruct an extremely young squad during a pandemic. Cal Poly limped to its worst conference mark in its Big West history last season, going an ugly 1-15. Smith turned to the transfer portal for reinforcements this year and will hope his young squad blossoms with the watering of a full off-season.

The Mustang offense was among the worst in the country last season, and it was THE worst in the Big West. Smith’s team shot more 3s than his inaugural squad, which is good, but it doesn’t really matter where you shoot when you rank dead last in your league in 3P%, 2P%, and OR%. That’s a bad combination! To boot, Cal Poly ranked second-to-last in FT rate and TO rate in the Big West. It was a jump-shot reliant squad that was bad at shooting jump-shots and cleaning up misses. Is there hope for 2021-22?

If there’s any hope, it lies in the large hands of Alimamy Koroma, an HM All-Big West selection and one of the few bright spots on the Poly team last season. Smith runs offense through Koroma on the block, or via his ball screens, where his ability to shoot from deep (38% overall, 41.4% in Big West play) makes him a tough matchup for opposing bigs. Koroma led the conference in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, a testament to the degree of difficulty of stopping the big man on the block.

This season Koroma will look to further his development and evolve into one of the best two-way weapons in the conference. He ranked 3rd in the league in block rate last year and anchored a Poly defense that was only “regular bad” instead of “super bad”.

Koroma has more help this season with the arrival of Ajani Kennedy from UT Martin. Kennedy is no stranger to the Big West, having suited up previously for UC Riverside. At 6’9” Kennedy can play the 4 or 5, and his shooting ability will allow Smith to play him alongside Koroma. The pair will form a dangerous scoring frontcourt, one that could allow them to play 5-out at times.

Poly was also supposed to get the services of Sean Rhea from UTRGV, but he hasn’t been on the roster page all summer and finding information on his is impossible. So, we will assume he isn’t on the team, which is a shame for Poly fans because he’d be one of their best players.

With no Rhea, the only other big man expected to see major PT is Finnish product Tuukka Jaakkola, who started every single game in ’19-20 before being relegated to bench duties when Koroma emerged last season. Jaakkola is a decent shot blocker who knows his role on offense. He’s a big body, but he isn’t very skilled. Freshmen Matur Dhal and Paxton Burzell round out the frontcourt depth chart.

Smith hopes his rising sophomore class will take the leap many 2nd-year players do. Brantly Stevenson, Camren Pierce, and Kobe Sanders will have large roles on this year’s squad. Stevenson is a point-wing who can play multiple spots and handle the ball. Pierce is a point guard who posted a manageable TO rate to go along with a solid assist rate in ’20-21. Shooting will be the next improvement point for hi, but he does have a nice stop-n-pop game. Sanders is a long wing oozing with two-way potential.

Fellow sophomore Aidan Prukop will likely remain in a deeper bench role, especially with the return of wing Kyle Colvin, a 10-game starter in ’19-20 who missed of last season with injury. Colvin is one of Poly’s better shooters, having knocked down 35% of his 3PA as a rookie.

Wing reinforcements pour in from the portal in the form of Eastern Washington transfer Jacob Davison, Oregon State transfer Julien Franklin, and James Madison transfer Trevon Taylor. Davison is the star of the group, a 2nd Team All-Big Sky selection in ’19-20 who was chosen as his former league’s preseason POY last November before having a bit of a down year. Davison is a career 35% shooter from deep and could lead the Mustangs in scoring during his final collegiate season. All-conference honors are very much in his wheelhouse, as well.

Franklin didn’t see much playing time for the Elite Eight Beavers, but he’s yet another long wing at Smith’s disposal and primed for major minutes at Poly. Taylor started 19 games for Wyoming in ’19-20, which made his bench warming at JMU an oddity. Taylor is a good shooter and capable scorer on the wing, a smooth lefty who should play a large role in the Poly rotation.

Finally, freshman Daniel Esparza could also play a role in his first season. He’s an excellent shooter with a quick release that requires no space to get off cleanly.

Bottom Line: Cal Poly is better than last season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be ready to dig its way out of the Big West basement. There’s enough talent and scoring potential to put a fairly optimistic ceiling on the Mustangs’ collective heads, but Smith still has a young squad combined with several new pieces joining the fold.