-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Amadou Sow, Jr., UC Santa Barbara
Coach of the Year: Mike Magpayo, UC Riverside
Newcomer of the Year: TJ Starks, R Jr., Cal St. Northridge
Freshman of the Year: Andre Henry, UC Irvine

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. UC Irvine

Key Returners: Collin Welp, Brad Greene, Isaiah Lee, Austin Johnson, Jeron Artest
Key Losses: Evan Leonard, Eyassu Worku, Tommy Rutherford, John Edgar
Key Newcomers: Andre Henry, DJ Davis 

Lineup:

Outlook: Be honest. Did you really expect someone else to be at the top of our Big West podium projections?

The Eaters have been cemented in our number 1 slot since April. Proof of this stubbornness can be found below, in this Way Way Way Too Early Top-25 Rankings, Mid-Major edition (see #25 overall in the ‘3MW Aggregate column’):

Props to our guy Jay, who, in calling us out for our collective reverence of Irvine, highlighted the undeniable truth facing the Eaters this season:

For 95% of Division I programs, losing four senior starters would be a death sentence. But this is Russell Turner’s kingdom...

Since 2014, here’s where Irvine’s finished in the Big West standings: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st.

Turner’s accumulated a nice assortment of contrasting medals in his trophy case – I’m no home décor expert, but silver seems to pair nicely with gold.

The impressive part about that *streak* is that it spans countless roster evolutions. It’s not solely attributable to one or two distinguished recruiting classes that knocked it out of the park. I remember doing this song and dance last summer. Irvine lost its starting point guard (Robert Cartwright), leading scorer (Max Hazzard) and two defensive destroyers (Elston Jones and 3X Defensive Player of the Year Jonathan Galloway), seducing many into believing the Eaters were finally vulnerable.

Another 20+ win season and Big West title belt later, Turner’s earned the benefit of the doubt. His defense serves as the sturdy mooring of Irvine’s institutional success, which, as last season proved, is player agnostic. The key performance indicator of his system’s effectiveness is 2-point percentage defense, regarded by most analytical minds as a significant variable in the overall defensive equation.

Interior blockades Brad Greene and Collin Welp are the latest Eaters to come through Turner’s big man pipeline. Tasked with replicating Galloway and Jones’ rim protection prowess, Green, Welp, and, to a lesser extent, Austin Johnson, answered the bell with emphatic fashion. They’re not Anthony Davis type shot swatters, but sound positioning and textbook verticality technique more than compensate. They understand their job is to stand their ground in the restricted area, while the guards on the perimeter funnel scorers into the midrange area. As the chart below from dribblehandoff.com confirms, the Eaters excel at baiting opponents into inefficient shots:

Getting stops is only half the battle. Irvine posted the 2nd most efficient offense in the Big West last year, but a few holes surfaced over the course of the season. There were stretches when lacking guard depth was exposed, particularly when Evan Leonard missed time early in the season. Eyassu Worku was able to steer the ship in his absence, but he’s no longer around to run the show this year.

What little experience the backcourt does have lies with Isaiah Lee, a sharpshooter who got some reps running the offense last year, along with Jeron Artest and JC Butler, two other unproven guards with a wide range of outcomes. As a result, big things are expected of Andre Henry and DJ Davis, two fringe 3-star prospects, who should buoy the perimeter playmaking. 

However, barring a breakout evolution from one of the aforementioned underclassmen, the offense will likely revolve around Greene and Welp. They’re by far the best big man duo in the league, both of whom routinely command double teams on the block. Both are also adept passers, especially Welp, so Turner’s best bet is to play inside-out through his bigs, which will alleviate pressure off the guards to create offense.

Bottom Line: It’s tempting to go against the grain but tread lightly before picking another horse based on personnel alone. The roster may look uninspiring at first glance, but Russell Turner is still holding the clipboard. As long as he’s the mastermind behind this operation, I’ll be all aboard the Anteater bandwagon. 

2. UC Santa Barbara

Key Returners: JaQuori McLaughlin, Amadou Sow, Devearl Ramsey, Brandon Cyrus
Key Losses: Max Heidegger, Matt Freeman
Key Newcomers: Ajare Sanni (Pacific), Miles Norris (JUCO) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Four years and 93 games later, Max Heidegger’s time has officially expired. The Gauchos’ scintillating scorer started from the bottom, arriving in Santa Barbara just in time for the 2016-17 catastrophe. A new coach and a revamped supporting cast helped Heidegger elevate his game over the next three seasons, but injuries tarnished his junior and senior year campaigns. Last season, he spent half the year on the training table, missing the entire month of December, as well as the final three games of the season.

Mighty Max’s acrobatic drives and pinpoint shooting precision set the tone for UCSB’s offense, but there were plenty of other bullets in the chamber. JaQuori McLaughlin emerged as an All-Conference caliber playmaker, who stood in for Heidegger as the offensive engine when Max was sidelined. McLaughlin’s sidekick, Devearl Ramsey, a full-time starter since 2018, is back for one last rodeo as well, giving the Gauchos two premier bucket getters on the perimeter.

Still, that didn’t satisfy Joe Pasternack, the Big West’s transfer whisperer. He already had two stout off-guard reserves in Brandon Cyrus and Sekou Toure. Now, he’s loaded with offensive ammo, after adding a 3-point sniper in Destin Barnes (Jacksonville) and an enticing prospect in Ajare Sanni (Pacific).

Up front, he’ll deploy a budding star in Amadou Sow, a savvy low post scorer and freakish leaper, along with a top-30 JUCO recruit in Miles Norris, who began his career at Oregon. 6’10 Robinson Idehen played near flawless basketball down the stretch last year, headlined by a 21-point outburst against UC Irvine’s ironclad defense. 3-star prospect and La Lumiere product Jakov Kucic should barge into the frontline rotation as well.

The bottom line is simple: Pasternack has talent and experience in spades. Even without Heidegger, the Gauchos can go 2-3 deep at every position. Plus, McLaughlin and Sow might be the best 1-2 punch in the league. But, the jury is still out on the Gauchos’ defense, where Pasternack has failed to turn his stable of primetime athletes into lockdown defenders. 

This is where Irvine set themselves apart from the rest of the Big West pack. For UCSB to retain the conference crown, dialing up the defensive intensity is the clearest path to closing the gap. To Pasternack’s credit, the defensive blueprint appears to be headed in the right direction. As the chart below reveals, the Gauchos’ defense acts as a similar mechanism to the Turner-designed defense at Irvine.

Both Irvine and UCSB were relatively successful at keeping shots away from the rim, but on the shots that did filter down into the restricted area, UCSB offered minimal resistance. Additionally, there was a dose of bad luck that went against the Gauchos last season, given the discrepancy in 2-point jump shot conversion rate between Irvine and UCSB.

One could argue that Heidegger’s exodus presents more run for Cyrus and the newcomer Sanni, both regarded as plus perimeter defenders. It’s tough to gauge individual defensive impact, but the chart below paints a damming picture of Heidegger’s defensive limitations:

Another wrinkle at play last year, which went largely unreported, was a pair of lingering injuries that bothered Cyrus and McLaughlin for a good chunk of the year. In an interview this summer, Pasternack cited the long layoff as much needed rejuvenation period for Cyrus and McLaughlin, who should enter the 2021 campaign at full strength, ready to unleash their best versions on an unsuspecting Big West field. 

Bottom Line: On paper, the Gauchos look delectable. From a pure talent perspective, this roster is leaps and bounds ahead of any other Big West challenger. But until Pasternack proves he can deliver on the defensive end, Big West runner-up feels like the Gauchos’ destiny yet again.

Tier 2 

3. Cal State Bakersfield

Key Returners: Czar Perry, Justin Edler-Davis, De'Monte Buckingham, Taze Moore, Shawn Stith, Justin McCall, Ronne Readus
Key Losses: Cam Allen
Key Newcomers: Shaun Williams (Kansas State), Travis Henson (JUCO), Grehlon Easter (JUCO), Cameron Smith (JUCO), Jahveon Medearis 

Lineup:

Outlook: What a perfect time for a change of scenery! Rod Barnes worst season since arriving in 2011 (tied for fewest wins, 12, and finished outside the top-250 in KenPom’s overall rankings for the first time ever). The Roadrunners raced out to a 6-1 start in conference, but quickly fell off the grid. Injuries and general inconsistency aside, the gruesome travel definitely took a toll – after the hot start, Bakersfield struck out in each of their last six road games.

Could the Roadrunners move to a more geographically condensed Big West be the antidote? It won’t hurt, but last year’s travel-related wear and tear was just the tip of the iceberg:

• De'Monte Buckingham, the A-10 Rookie of the Year in 2017, grossly underachieved. Last summer, Buckingham looked primed for a takeover year in a weaker Big West battleground, but that simply didn’t come to fruition (look out for a 2021 revenge tour).

• Taze Moore, a multi-faceted talent, dealt with an ankle injury that manifested in wild swings in his production - in fact, he’s been hampered by chronic leg issues since 2017. Moore still found ways to stuff the stat sheet, but any leap in the standings this year starts with a fully healthy Moore stabilizing that consistency.

• Czar Perry, a Northwestern State transfer, was abruptly shoved in to the point guard stead. Defensively, he fit like a glove in Barnes’ frenetic defense, but was somewhat out of sorts on the offensive end. Since Buckingham and Moore often spearhead the offense, Perry found himself relegated to a glorified game manager. The issue is, shooting isn’t his forte. Perry attempted seven 3-pointers the entire season (seriously, seven), amplifying a glaring deficiency in his tool kit.

The good news? Last year's army of juniors gets a second bite of the apple. Collectively, this senior and super-senior laden team projects to be one of the oldest teams in America. But age alone won’t cut it. As teased above, Buckingham and Moore need to assert their will on both ends. No team in the conference has two defenders capable of corralling these dueling dragons at peak form. Some might call them ‘tweeners’, but their unique combination of size and skill induces constant mismatches.

There’s an abundance of reinforcements around them, too:

• Justin Edler-Davis and Justin McCall each carry tenure, mainstays in Barnes’ rotation since 2018. As known commodities, they’ll be counted upon for consistent complementary production.

• Shawn Stith looks like a man amongst boys at times, while other times he seems to be lumbering aimlessly. Part of his inconsistency stemmed from an ankle injury early in the season and he ultimately lost his starting spot to Ronne Readus late in the year. Readus is the superior rim protector of the two, so perhaps Stith’s destiny is an overqualified super-sub.

• New arrival Shaun Williams infuses a scoring and shooting jolt to the perimeter rotation. Initially deemed ineligible until second semester, it appears Williams received clearance to lace ‘em up right away. The Kansas State product figures to be in the mix for big minutes from day 1.

• Barnes loves to fish in the JUCO pond, which is where he landed a scary talent in Travis Henson. It’s borderline criminal to bury his name so deep in this preview, the 19th ranked JUCO prospect per JUCORecruiting.com. A turnaround mid-range jumper is his bread-and-butter, but he won’t shy away from the offensive boards, either.

Rattling off individual players and their offensive outlooks is only half the battle. Historically, Bakersfield’s best teams (see 2016 and 2017) have hung their hat on the defensive side of the ball. Stylistically, not much has changed in Barnes’ defensive playbook in the nine years he’s manned the head coaching throne. Barring some unforeseen offseason epiphany, expect more of the same this year – the personnel simply has to execute. The Roadrunners will constantly toggle between schemes - full-court press, amorphous zone and man-to-man - to heat up the ball and create chaos. Regardless of scheme, it’s all about cranking up the steal-o-meter to Level 11.

However, Barnes’ blitzing defenses inherently come with baggage. For starters, the feverish pressure often turns into a hack fest, gifting opponents endless trips to the charity stripe. Also, the helter-skelter nature of this pressure, particularly in zone, leaves the Roadrunners exposed to leaving shooters unmarked on the perimeter. The aforementioned 2016 and 2017 teams certainly benefitted from favorable opponent shooting luck, but that pendulum swung back in Bakersfield’s face the last two seasons. It’s time for the basketball Gods to restore balance to the force – the force of regression.

Bottom Line: This is a mulligan year for Barnes and company. The Roadrunners badly underachieved last year, despite a roster dripping with talent. If they can keep the recurring injuries at bay, Bakersfield could crash the Big West party in emphatic fashion. 

4. Hawaii

Key Returners: Justin Webster, Samuta Avea, Justin Hemsley, Bernardo da Silva
Key Losses: Eddie Stansberry, Drew Buggs, Zigmars Raimo
Key Newcomers: James Jean-Marie (San Diego), Cadson Jardine (Utah Valley), JoVon McClanahan (JUCO), Noel Coleman (San Diego), Biwali Bayles, Beon Riley 

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year was a weird one for the Rainbow Warriors. Head Coach Eran Ganot took a medical leave of absence before the season commenced, boosting lead assistant Chris Gerlufsen into the hi-chair for the first 13 games of the season. Undaunted and unfazed, Gerlufsen guided the Bows to a respectable 8-5 start, before Ganot retook the reigns on the eve of the new year.

Ganot’s return sparked an emotional sonic boom in the month of January, as the Bows climbed right to the top of the Big West totem pole. But then, an unexpected tailspin quickly turned a 5-1 league record into 5-5 by Valentine’s Day. Hawaii played coin flip basketball from there on out, checking in with .500 Big West record. 

All things considered, a fourth-place finish is nothing to scoff at. But in the big picture, Ganot seems to have smashed into an arbitrary glass ceiling, unable to distance himself from the pits of mediocrity. The Bows are 25-23 in conference over the last three years, finishing 200th, 201st and 208th in KenPom’s overall rankings during that span.

A changing of the guard is in effect, with program pillars Eddie Stansberry, Drew Buggs and Zigmars Raimo moving on to greener pastures. A new nucleus is forming around Justin Webster and Bernardo da Silva, two stud sophomores on the precipice of breakouts. Webster’s arrival attracted a ton of buzz last summer, prompting the Weave to award Freshman of the Year honors in last year’s preseason preview. His pedestrian shooting percentages as a rookie distort his true shooting prowess – my money’s on Webster lighting it up this year in a leading role offensively.

Da Silva was blossoming at a rapid rate right as Big West play was heating up, but an untimely injury blew up his season entirely. The 6-9 Brazilian, who wields a 7-2 wingspan, never found his groove after suffering an undisclosed foot injury in mid-January. Da Silva reportedly added 20 pounds of muscle this offseason, but staying on the floor and out of a cast will be critical this year, especially as he matures into the precious sophomore year development window.

Webster and Da Silva are masters of their own craft, but Ganot’s offense requires a dynamic creator to bring it all together. The accomplished Drew Buggs’ farewell tour was underwhelming to say the least, marred by wild swings in his game to game effectiveness. A blank space remains at the lead guard spot, which will be likely be filled by bucket-born JoVon McClanahan. A JUCO product from Sheridan College in Wyoming, McClanahan’s game oozes confidence and fearlessness – call it little man syndrome if you want. The 5’10 McClanahan put up gaudy stats on the JUCO circuit last year (23.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG), headlined by a 50-burger against Casper College and a 40-burger against Gillette College. He canned 45% from behind the arc and sunk 88% of his 279 attempts from the charity stripe, where he made a killing following the James Harden model of efficiency. He’ll need to be cognizant of engaging others around him this year, but there’s no doubt he can fill it up (there’s a reason he’s known as ‘Kingvon’).

McClanahan’s poised to thrive as the table setter for a robust crop of wings. With Webster sharpied into the starting 2-guard spot, Ganot has oodles of optionality at the 3 and 4 positions. Samuta Avea and Justin Hemsley are two prototypical wings, each holstering a well-rounded offensive arsenal. Avea is the odds on favorite to lead the Rainbow Warriors in scoring this year, but he’s by no means a gunner. The Rainbows Warriors will distribute the wealth across a number of scoring outlets, which will likely trickle down to Utah Valley import Cadson Jardine, another 6’6 / 6’7 swingman who can play inside and out.

The rest of the newcomer class looks homogenous on paper, but ‘versatility’ is the common thread across all the JUCO and freshmen additions. In an early offseason sneak peak of the Bows’ 2021 roster, Eran Ganot recycled that word repeatedly, but particularly underscored it when describing Beon Ja Riley and Manel Ayol. Gerlufsen singled out Ayol’s malleability in that same piece: 

“He’s 6-7, long, and he’s a guy who can move all around the floor. [We can] put him in different spots depending on what the matchups are. He can dribble, pass, shoot and play above the rim.”

Ayol received recognition in JUCORecruiting.com’s top-100 player rankings (#75), bolstering an ever-expanding Australian pipeline for the Bows. 

Cut from that same versatility cloth is James Jean-Marie, a San Diego U defector who started all but three games last year for the Toreros. His lateral quickness shines through on the defensive end, which bears a striking resemblance to Zigmars Raimo’s savvy instincts. If JJM’s jumper continues to take hold, he might be a no-brainer insertion at the 4 alongside da Silva. 

Ganot loves bigs who can slide their feet defensively, a necessity given the frequency of ball screen action in today’s college game.

Bottom Line: Ganot’s burgeoning affection for speed and versatility is evident in the 2021 roster construction. Three 7-footers were in the bullpen a year ago, but Ganot’s beginning to swap in size for speed, something he discussed this summer with the West Hawaii Today: 

“You’re seeing way more 6-5, 6-6 multiple-position guys,” Ganot said. “It’s moved more in the direction of spreading people out and multiple play makers. There’s still a place for playing inside. It’s nice when you can play both ways. It’s hard to guard. And you have the ability to have multiple guys defend multiple positions, as well.”

This should pay immediate dividends on the defensive end, but that’s not what held the Bows back last year. Replacing Buggs at point and replenishing the shooting supply are the top priorities, both of which will fall on McClanahan’s lap. He’s really the make-or-break X-factor capable of filling in the offensive cavities.

5. UC Riverside

Key Returners: Arinze Chidom, Callum McRae, Dominick Pickett, George Willborn III, Zyon Pullin, Dragan Elkaz, Angus McWilliam
Key Losses: Dikymbe Martin
Key Newcomers: Jock Perry (St. Mary's), Flynn Cameron (DePaul), Jalin Anderson

Lineup:

Outlook: Hey COVID, kick rocks why don’t cha…

Sorry Riverside fans. That’s the extent of my control over the deteriorating financial situation at UC Riverside, just one of many mid major athletic departments operating on razor thin margins.  For those not privy, UC Riverside announced that it’s considering scrapping sports to balance a strenuous budget situation brought on by COVID-19.

Mike Magpayo would’ve preferred different circumstances surrounding his landmark promotion to head coach. In a Freaky Friday type role reversal, Magpayo’s former boss, David Patrick, accepted an associate coaching position at Arkansas this summer, creating an opportunity for Magpayo to step into his mentor’s shoes. Renowned as a defensive guru, Magpayo was the mastermind behind the Highlanders’ defensive renaissance last season. His basketball lineage is highly intertwined with the St. Mary’s coaching tree, which all ties back to Randy Bennett. Notable understudies from Bennett’s basketball factory include Eran Ganot (Hawaii), Rick Croy (Cal Baptist), Todd Golden (San Francisco) and Kyle Smith (Washington State), all of whom embody the data-driven, ‘Moneyball’ analytics movement sweeping through college hoops. However, Magpayo’s coaching philosophy overlays bits and pieces of Patrick’s roots, born from Jamie Dixon’s tutelage at TCU:

“Our program is the blueprint for why we’re successful,” Magpayo told Blue Ribbon this offseason. “It comes from the Saint Mary’s coaching tree, and it’s a program I’ve run for 10 years. I worked with Kyle Smith for five years and it’s literally the same program we run here. Coach Patrick brought a little Jamie Dixon and Johnny Jones to it, but the program itself – the 12-month program with the shooting, the accountability, the statistics we all use – it’s all the same.”

Magpayo’s data-derived defensive structure bears a striking resemblance to Russell Turner’s blueprint at nearby UC Irvine. The Highlanders aren’t necessarily trying to crack Irvine’s secret defensive code, but there are many shared points of emphasis. First and foremost is the need to pack the restricted area with a forest of trees. It sounds simplistic, but a number of historical correlation analyses prove the relationship between size / length and defensive effectiveness – put simply, it’s harder to score over giants than midgets.

The Highlanders’ towering frontline added another skyscraper this summer, 7’1 Jock Perry, next to reigning All Big West nominee Callum McRae (7’1), hyper versatile power forward Angus McWilliam (6’10) and breakout newcomer star Arinze Chidom (6’9). Daniel Mading (6’9) is the black sheep of the bunch, a stretch forward with deep range that needs to shake last year’s injury rust.

No driver wants to run into these barricades at the rim. Instead, they often settle for 10-15 footers in the mid-range, the lowest expected value of any shot on the floor. Whether it goes in or not, this outcome is a win in Magpayo’s data-infused playbook.

If you skipped over the Irvine preview above, here’s a handy chart from dribblehandoff.com that breaks down the best defenses in terms of opponent shot quality. Last year, UC Riverside ranked 3rd nationally in dictating opponents into ‘bad’ shots, largely characterized by unassisted 2-point jumpers:

However, take note of the discrepancy between Riverside’s defensive shot quality (left column) and defensive effective field goal percentage (right column). In a nutshell, the Highlanders effectively baited opponents into the shots they wanted to induce, but, unfortunately, those shots just happened to fall. This was amplified in conference games, when Big West foes couldn’t miss against Riverside, making 39.6% from long distance against the Highlanders.

A traditional coach, one not versed in the language of analytics, might ignore the defensive shot quality metric all together, focusing solely on how to improve the effective field goal percentage metric. But, the statistically-wired Magpayo knows the variance pendulum is bound to swing back in his favor. If Riverside sticks to the system and trusts the process, the shots that fell last year will eventually catch iron this season. The ‘regression to mean’ tailwinds could propel the Highlanders’ 2nd best defensive unit last year even higher in 2021. The personnel is essentially the same across the board, led by one of the Big West’s premier on-ball stoppers, George Willborn. 

The only substantial loss this offseason, Dikymbe Martin, will take a toll on the other end of the floor, where the Highlanders struggled to find a full-time solution at point guard last year. Martin’s injury baggage scarred his senior campaign, as it took months for Martin to regain full form. The result was a revolving door of lead ball handlers.

Patrick experimented with a myriad of options, including senior Khyber Kabellis and freshman Zyon Pullin. Pullin is the only returning point guard on the roster, who dealt with the typical rookie growing pains last year. Magpayo is hoping he can bring stability to the backcourt as a sophomore, or perhaps accept a timeshare with DePaul import Flynn Cameron. Jalin Anderson, a 3-star prospect with Aussie heritage, could also sneak into the rotation, especially if he can light a fuse in an otherwise dim perimeter offense.

Last year, Riverside’s offense see-sawed between a spread-out, 3-point centric attack and an inside-out ‘play through the post’ approach. This is where Chidom is a special breed. The Highlanders can play through him inside, or slide him to the perimeter as a dual threat scoring wing.

Outside of Chidom, the rest of the supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired in terms of dynamic offensive skill. Two such examples are Dominick Pickett and Dragan Elkaz. As experienced and steady contributors, Pickett and Elkaz are stars in their role. But without Martin’s ability to bend the defense this season, Pickett and Elkaz can no longer hide in the shadows and pick their spots, which may expose their limitations as slashers and creators.

Bottom Line: Magpayo kept the roster foundation intact, preventing any mass exodus of outbound transfers. This puts the Highlanders squarely in the hunt for an upward move in the standings, even without Martin’s services. As pivotal as Martin was to the offensive rhythm, the truth of the matter is that he wasn’t himself last year - still, the Highlanders nearly cracked the top-200 in KenPom’s overall rankings last season. This points to how robust the talent crop is here, particularly in terms of size and athleticism. Magpayo will waste no time extracting this potential on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense is still in the midst of a mini identity crisis.

6. UC Davis

Key Returners: Ezra Manjon, Damion Squire, Elijah Pepper, Caleb Fuller, Kennedy Koehler
Key Losses: Stefan Gonzalez, Joe Mooney, Matt Neufeld, Rogers Printup
Key Newcomers: Hugh Hogland (Portland), Ran Pehka, Francesco Borra, Caleb McGill 

Lineup:

Outlook: It wasn’t a pretty start for Jimmy Les last year. An 82-48 opening night thrashing at the hands of Loyola set off the initial alarms. Then, a grueling road trip in late November chewed up and spit out the Aggies with a 2-7 record, before a victory at Northern Arizona finally pried the monkey off their back.

Patience is a virtue with young, experienced ball clubs. Like a young Jedi in training, it took time for Ezra Manjon, the Aggies’ newfound hope, to hone his craft. But when then a Ha! moment finally struck, Davis started to roll. Manjon seized command of the point guard control hub with no hesitation, earning Big West Freshman of the Year honors and etching his name on to the All Conference list.

Manjon’s ability to draw attention opened up a feeding frenzy for Stefan Gonzalez and Joe Mooney, who torched the nets at a blistering rate last year – UC Davis checked in with the 3rd best 3-point shooting percentage in the nation.

Gonzalez and Mooney licked their chops while their defenders collapsed around Manjon, waiting for the inevitable kick out. But that relationship was in no way parasitic. Gonzalez and Mooney’s gravitational pull on their defenders spaced out the floor for Manjon to operate, a dynamic Manjon may miss this season.

Gonzalez and Mooney’s departures will shift the spotlight to second-year stalwarts Eli Pepper and Caleb Fuller. Relative to Gonzalez and Mooney, this big, versatile guard tandem brings a more diverse skillset to the table. Pepper earned the defensive stopper badge in no time, while Fuller did serious damage on the other end – over the last 10 games, Fuller led all Aggies in scoring. Damion Squire is the forgotten fourth banana, a devastating driver to pair with Manjon. Squire took a backseat to the freshman Manjon last year but settled in nicely to a complementary role. 

The abundance of backcourt riches lured Les into a seductive small-ball lineup, but a complete and utter lack of size stuck out like a sore thumb. This was magnified late in the year, when an undisclosed injury put 6’11 Matt Neufeld on the shelf, Davis’ sole traditional big. During that stint, 6’7 Kennedy Koehler manned the middle all by himself. Koehler held his ground admirably, but the brawny tweener is by no means a terrifying rim protector.

Les went full radical at times, sprinkling in 5-guard lineups that featured no one taller than 6’5. The Aggies managed to create a hint of havoc with their speed – they posted the 2nd highest turnover rate in the Big West – but it still didn’t compensate for having no backstop in the middle. Per hoop-math.com, opponents shot 66.2% at the rim against Davis last year, the 14th highest clip in the nation. 

Les plucked 6’10 Hugh Hogland off the waiver wire, a temporary interior band-aid for the next two years. At minimum, his size and length will offer a semblance of resistance defensively, even though he’s probably more adept on the offensive end (he’s a crafty low post scorer with both hands). 6’11 freshman Francesco Borra will also benefit from the dearth of size. He could find himself thrown right into the fire, just as Koehler was last year, who will see his fair share of burn at the 5 as well.

Bottom Line: The dichotomy between the Aggies’ offense and defense will likely roll forward into the 2021 campaign. Rather than force fit a lineup with two big men, Les should play to his roster’s strength: the young perimeter quartet of Manjon, Squire, Pepper and Fuller. This super small ball approach worked last year because Gonzalez and Mooney were human blowtorches from long distance. While not quite as deadly from deep, Squire, Pepper and Fuller can still stroke it, and each bring a more dynamic scoring package to the table than their wing predecessors. In the past, Les has extracted some of his most potent offenses from a similar DNA sequence as this current roster make up. The question is, at what defensive cost…

7. UC San Diego

Key Returners: Tyrell Roberts, Mikey Howell, Gabe Hadley, Marek Sullivan
Key Losses: Christian Oshita, Chris Hansen
Key Newcomers: Jake Killingsworth (Columbia)

Lineup:

Outlook: The more the merrier! Everyone, give a warm welcome to the new guy, UC San Diego!

Like DJ Qualls, the Tritons are a mystery to the rest of the Division I social club. Dayton fans out there may appreciate this parallel. UCSD entered the 2020 NCAA Division II Tournament rocking a 22-game win streak with only one loss on their resume. Sorry Flyers, you just got one up’d.

Bored with torching the DII competition pool, the Tritons now get to unleash their 3-point flamethrowers on unsuspecting DI foes. All Big West teams be warned: failing to meticulously scout this offense will put you right in the crosshairs of the Tritons’ deadeye marksmen. UCSD finished with the 2nd ranked offense on an efficiency basis last year within the DII ranks by turning the 3-point dial ALL the way up. The Tritons made 12.5 threes a game last year, converting a near robotic 40% as a team. 55% of all UCSD’s field goal attempts were from behind the stripe – no one in DI even attempted 53% of their shots from long distance last season.

Bottom line, these dudes chuck. And more often than not, they’re finding the bottom of the net.

Mikey Howell has the thankless job of sharing the sugar, the Tritons’ lanky lefty point guard. Head Coach Eric Olean is a stickler for ball security, and Howell is as reliable as they come in this department. The southpaw from San Marcos, California posted a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio last year, pacing the Tritons’ nation leading assist to turnover rate. Oh yeah, he can drill it from deep too. Howell canned 46% from 3-point range, and enters the 2021 campaign with a 40% career hit rate. His primary job is to kick start the offense with his savvy maneuvering in pick-n-roll, but he can wear the bucket getter hat as well.

Of all the Triton sharpshooters, Tyrell Roberts is the most lethal. Roberts’ 3-point precision last year warrants another Division I comparison. Roberts made a ridiculous 111 threes at 46% last year. Per the chart from KenPom below, only five qualifying players in Division I matched Roberts’ 46% clip, but only Stefan Gonzalez and Jake Toolson sustained that rate on over 150 attempts.

Roberts’ shiftiness and lightning quick release allows him to overcome short stature to get shots off from anywhere on the floor over longer defenders. His highlight tape is a treat to watch – if his encore performance is even 75% of last year, Roberts will be a household name by season’s end. 

Gabe Hadley is the Tritons’ 3rd banana. Yup, you guessed it. Another rifleman with AI-level precision. Hadley’s 117-for-269 over the last two seasons from deep, which equates to a 43.5% conversion rate.

Olen’s beautiful ball screen motion offense is the perfect template for this stable of shooters. It’s a 4-out, 1-in set up, and even the lone big can stroke it from distance. Chris Hansen was the primary weapon in this action last season, who shot it in the high 40s from behind the stripe. 6’8 Hugh Baxter stands out as the obvious candidate to fill Hansen’s shoes - he’s a reliable as a pick-n-pop outlet, and his size alone will come in handy against larger D-I competition.

Marek Sullivan is almost the exception to the shoot-or-die mandate. He’s a jack-of-all-trades wing / forward hybrid, who Olen dubbed as the best cutter / off-ball mover on the team. Martin Tombe’s is another fluid athlete at 6’6, who could emerge as a defensive stopper on the wing.

Bottom Line: In Olen’s ‘read and react’ offense - one with few set plays - having a well connected, tight knit group makes a world of difference. With the nuts and bolts of this roster having played together for multiple years, the Tritons should be a well oiled machine right out of the gate. First year teams in Division I are especially difficult to scout, benefitting from the element of surprise, which could boost the Tritons right to the top of this second tier. 

8. Long Beach State

Key Returners: Colin Slater, Michael Carter III, Chance Hunter, Jordan Roberts, Drew Cobb, Romelle Mansel
Key Losses: Josh Morgan, Jordan Griffin
Key Newcomers: Raymond Hawkins (Alabama), Joe Hampton (JUCO), Isaiah Washington*** (Iona) 
***needs waiver - current ranking assumes Washington does NOT receive waiver
Lineup:

Outlook: Dan Monson attempted to spin the narrative in his favor. Facing a soup to nuts roster overhaul last summer, Monson was confident that a fresh new slate would bring clear skies and sunshine back to the Beach. From the outside, the rest of us peered in with a curious eye. 

Can these unknown JUCO newcomers really return the Beach back to the top of the Big West hierarchy? 

In short, *we* were right to be skeptical. Monson and his patchwork roster faltered to a 6-10 conference performance and an 11-21 record overall, the latter of which was Monson’s highest loss tally since the 2008 season (his first year as head coach). Once a sterling brand among the west coast mid major landscape, the Beach’s allure is starting to erode. Though, there’s reason to believe this year could be a turning point.

Power 6 teams typically have a stranglehold on top-100 prospects, but every now and then one slips through the cracks. Iona import Isaiah Washington is one of those rare incidents, who started his career at Minnesota in 2018. A famed member of the ‘Jelly Fam’ cult, Washington’s talent is jaw dropping. He finally walked the walk last year at Iona after stalling out at Minnesota, posting career highs in points, rebounds and assists. 

The NCAA still hasn’t ruled on Washington’s case, so there’s a chance he doesn’t debut until the fall of 2021 – but if he gets clearance over the next month, the Beach could be back in business. Washington, perhaps the only true point guard on the roster (save redshirt freshman Shaden Knight), would allow Colin Slater and Michael Carter to slide back to their natural positions off the ball. Last year, Slater and Carter juggled double duties as scorers and initiators, but neither could multi-task effectively. Monson quickly learned that Slater and Carter are best suited to hunt their own shots and let others facilitate the offense.

The lack of a true perimeter floor general was painfully obvious last year. The 49ers’ turnover rate and isolation rate both skyrocketed, a byproduct of minimal offensive fluidity. Far too many possessions ended with everyone just standing and watching while Hunter or Carter tried to take their man one on one. A sound and steady maestro at the point not only protects the ball but keeps the ball moving, preventing possession killing stagnation.

This is where Washington needs to deliver. He’s been prone to hero-ball habits in the past, so assuming he’s the surefire remedy to the perimeter disjointedness is a tad ignorant. The key will be for Monson to rewire his psyche into a team-first ‘help others’ mentality. If he can unlock this trait, and if the NCAA unlocks the eligibility shackles, Washington could be the catalyst to this offense taking off in 2021. 

Until that’s a certainty, Monson has bigger fish to fry on the defensive end. The Beach were inexcusably bad on this side of the ball last year, given the length and athleticism Monson had at his disposal. The 49ers started to clamp down late in the year, but that improvement was largely tied to ascension of Joshua Morgan, who took his talents to USC this summer. Monson responded well to the surprising departure, nabbing former 3-star recruit Raymond Hawkins and former top-100 recruit Joe Hampton. Hawkins and Hampton both caught the eye of Power conference suitors once upon a time, but Monson will gladly scoop up their leftovers. Hawkins and Hampton are both thunderous bigs, each tipping the 240-pound threshold on the scale.

The new arrivals overshadow the Beach’s glue guys, Jordan Roberts and Drew Cobb, two seasoned vets who fill in the blanks on both ends of the floor. Cobb has relished in his role as a defensive stopper, while Roberts will be tasked with replacing Josh Morgan’s shot blocking. In a league loaded with bigs, Morgan was quietly making a name for himself last year, despite the 49ers slide down the Big West standings. Roberts can’t replicate Morgan’s imposing frame, but a relentless motor and keen awareness can go a long way. 

Roberts and Hawkins likely open the season as the 49ers’ frontline tandem, which gives Monson four overqualified reserves in his back pocket (Romelle Mansel, Trever Irish, and Jeffrey Yan). Monson takes pride in being a thorn in UC Irvine’s side, evidenced by the always competitive bouts between the two southern California programs. Fighting fire with fire has been Monson’s modus operandi against Irvine, countering the Anteaters’ jaw dropping size with his own stable of bigs. Though losing Morgan removes one of these horses, Hawkins, Roberts, Mansel, Irish and Yan are still capable of standing their ground.

Bottom Line: Dan Monson’s offenses aren’t always pretty, but the best versions of the Beach have been able to manufacture points in a variety of ways. Last year’s one-dimensional, iso-based offense was far too leveraged on Hunter, Slater and Carter’s shot making. This year, Monson needs one of the newcomers (ideally Washington) to manage the offense with conviction and eliminate the sloppy decision-making. On the heels of last year’s offensive turmoil, the NCAA’s waiver decision on Washington could be the make or break factor in the Beach’s 2021 prognosis.

Tier 3

9. Cal State Northridge

Key Returners: Darius Brown II, Ron Artest III, Lance Coleman II, Festus Ndumanya, Brendan Harrick
Key Losses: Lamine Diane, Terrell Gomez
Key Newcomers: TJ Starks (Texas A&M), Vante Hendrix (sNew Mexico), Miles Brookins (LaSalle), Amound Anderson 

Lineup: 

Outlook: This picture just hits different… 

2020’s been tougher on some than others, but we could all take a page out of Marky Mark’s attitude playbook. That man just sat back helplessly as a global pandemic fleeced his best chance at postseason glory since the [completely clean and devoid of scandal] NC State era. The NBA came knocking for Lamine Diane – you know, the man good for 25 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 2 block a game – while the transfer tides washed away Terrell Gomez and Elijah Harkless, the Matadors 2nd and 3rd leading scorers behind Diane. Meanwhile, Gottfried’s [apparently] been getting stiffed on settlement payments apparently owed to him by NC State…

The only person in southern LA smiling wider than Gottfried? TJ Starks. The ultimate enigma, the Texas A&M cast away has been a piñata for independent college hoops media overlords (no, we would never stoop to that level). Starks butted heads with two coaches in as many seasons in College Station, before ultimately bolting for the coast. Starks sat out all last year, giving him plenty of time for reflection and soul searching - how can I get that freshman year mojo back?

The thing is, he’s never really had that mojo. Other than taking over the Round of 32 showdown against  North Carolina, Starks has been the antithesis of efficient. An elusive slasher and tough shot maker, Starks occasionally reminds us of how talented he is. What he needs are boundaries.

But let’s be honest - Mr. Gottfried isn’t one to bottle up confidence. Starks should play on a loose leash, but running alongside Darius Brown may be the best thing for Starks’ game. Brown quietly puppeteered the CSUN offense last year, an oft used distribution pipeline for Diane and Gomez’s scoring supply. Brown’s unselfish psyche and calm demeanor at point may indirectly narrow Starks’ focus to scoring, which is how he’s wired. He’s just too volatile to be the primary initiator, precisely why a comrade like Brown is a perfect perimeter match.

Ron Artest III, Brendan Harrick, Lance Coleman II and Festus Ndumanya stood by Brown’s side while the rest of the Matadors fled for the hills. Coleman and Harrick should retain their spots in the rotation, two volume shooters on the wing, but Artest and Ndumanya will be challenged by two more new kids in the block, Vance Hendrix and Miles Brookins. Hendrix quietly had a nice season under the dark cloud of New Mexico’s soap opera season. He’s a disruptive defender on the wing, which can only help the Matador’s, well, ‘matador’ defense. Brookins is banking on a repaired ACL to hold up, who clocked a grand total of 8 minutes against Auburn last year. Once upon a time (early in the 2018-19 season), Brookins was a double-double threat for the Explorers. Gottfried will welcome his production on both ends, but the caroming all opponent misses may prove to be his most valuable contribution.

Typically, I’d pull the 3-point regression card hear on CSUN’s behalf, implying next year’s defense will be aided by natural reversion tot eh mean - for reference, opposing shooters made 39% of their triples against the Matadors. But we saw this same movie in 2019, when teams made 38.4% from long distance. Gottfried’s freewheeling defense shows little interest in finding shooters on the perimeter, which manifests in high quality, high percentage looks. 

The freshmen class features just one 3-star prospect, a disappointing lack of star power for a Mark Gottfried and Jim Harrick led recruiting charge. Amound Anderson is the headliner, the reigning LA City Section Co-Player of the Year. A lanky lefty with a smooth outside stroke, Anderson will open the season as TJ Starks insurance. 

Bottom Line: Darius Brown put shots on a platter for Diane and Gomez last year, but he'll be serving a brand-new cast of characters in 2021, while hunting his own shot more frequently. The key will be how Starks factors into the equation. Does Gottfried let him co-initiate alongside Brown (this would be unwise)? Does he use him more off-the-ball and run sets to get him shots, akin to Gomez last year (this would be preferred)? Regardless, this offense will look night-and-day different without Diane and Gomez.

10. Cal State Fullerton

Key Returners: Wayne Arnold, Tory San Antonio, Vincent Lee, Johnny Wang
Key Losses: Brandon Kamga, Austen Awosika, Jackson Rowe, Davon Clare
Key Newcomers: Jalen Harris (JUCO), Chris McCray (JUCO), Landis Spivey (JUCO), Jalon Andrews (JUCO), Dante Maddox Jr., Latrell Wrightsell Jr.

Lineup:

Outlook: Cover your eyes, Fully fans. A special kind of shovel is needed to dig out of the hole you’re in now. Four starters say sayonara, including the Big West Newcomer of the Year (Brandon Kamga), a 3-year starter at point (Austen Awosika) and a fringe program Hall of Famer (Jackson Rowe). Rowe’s name is plastered all over the Fullerton basketball record books – he’s second in program history in both blocks and rebounds – but not even Rowe could alter the Titans’ trajectory last year.

A bum knee kept Rowe on the sidelines for the first 11 games of the season. He checked back in right before conference season, and immediately became the fulcrum of the Titan’s offense. Yet, his 16 points and 7 rebounds a game didn’t move the needle, nor did his defensive activity on the other end. A 6-10 league record showed the Titan’s issues were systemic, incurable by any one player, even a weapon like Rowe. 

Under Dedrique Taylor, Fullerton’s offense is highly predictable. There’s little evidence of nuanced motion or strategic set plays, which festered into a ‘stand and watch Rowe or Kamga do something’ offense last year. This is workable with two bonafide bucket getters, such as say Khalil Ahmad and Kyle Allman, but watching the Rowe and Kamga show after Ahmand and Allman felt like watching Penn and Teller with two fill-ins – it just didn’t pack the same punch. Taylor had few counters up his sleeve, leaving the Titans highly leveraged on a one-dimensional offense. 

Fully’s lone returning starter, Wayne Arnold, was left on an island by his former senior cohorts. Arnold’s a one-trick-pony on offense, needing a viable creator to feed him on the wing. But, when he sees daylight from behind the arc, he can rip the nets in a hurry. Arnold found himself in a shooting funk late in the year, but I’d bank on his conversion rate creeping back up into the high 30s this season. Tory San Antonio was a highly regarded rookie in last year’s freshman class, a former 3-star recruit from nearby Rancho Verde High School. TSA was mysteriously in and out of the lineup last year (injury?), culminating in an underwhelming rookie campaign. 

Josh Hall is hoping a return to the West will revitalize his career, which looked destined for stardom back in 2018. Hall was a critical cog in Nevada’s Sweet-16 appearance, memorialized by an absurd 2nd half comeback over Cincinnati in the Round of 32. However, the cackling kernel just never popped at Missouri State last season, where he saw his per game averages drop to career lows. He now steps another notch down in competition, hoping to turn back the clock to his 2018 best version. Relative to Rowe, Hall is more of a forward / wing hybrid, but has shades of Rowe’s athleticism and multi-dimensionality in his game.

Above all, this team needs one or more of the JUCO class to be a primary creator. Arnold and San Antonio are optimized as shooters and scorers first, so shoehorning them into an initiator role seems counterproductive. Perhaps Casper College product Jalen Harris will put on his superhero cape, one of the only dynamic perimeter threats, who could be thrown to the lion’s den immediately.

6’6 Chris McCray is another JUCO import who should distinguish himself from the slew of newcomers this year. An Oak Hill product, McCray dominated in his most recent stop, West LA Community College, where he was unanimously voted Most Outstanding Player in the division. However, West LA CC is not a member of the NJCAA, so comparing McCray’s production with other JUCO standouts is apples to oranges. Still, his shooting splits – 53% from the field, 40% from 3-point range and 86% from the free-throw line – are encouraging.

Barring some mega leap from the freshmen and sophomores (San Antonio and Vincent Lee are promising), role players will be miscast as featured guys (sorry, Wayne Arnold). Dedrique Taylor isn't a do more with less guy and his banner years were built on the backs of gamebreaking guards. 

Bottom Line: On paper, Fullerton’s roster might be the weakest of any team in the Big West – even Cal Poly’s patchwork roster holds a slight advantage over this gutted rotation. There’s an unfilled blank at lead ball handler, a position that’s taken on a lot of responsibility in Taylor’s offenses in years past. Hall has the potential to shift that paradigm, but it’s easy to get fooled by his Nevada production without considering the drop off in production last year. If Fullerton somehow climbs higher in the Big West standings, it will be because one of the JUCOs shattered expectations.

11. Cal Poly

Key Returners: Keith Smith, Colby Rogers, Tuukka Jaakkola, Kyle Colvin, Alimamy Koroma, Mark Crowe, Hank Hollingsworth
Key Losses: Junior Ballard, Jamal Smith, Malek Harwell, Job Alexander
Key Newcomers: Riley Till (Iowa)

Lineup:

Outlook: It wasn’t ALL bad for John Smith and Mustangs... 

Eh, it was mostly bad... 

Finishing last is never a good thing, but did anyone really expect Smith to make moves with that bland roster he inherited last season? For those of you handicappers, Cal Poly did rise a couple of points in my power ratings by year end (I shorted A LOT of Mustang stock last season). The Stangs did cruise to 16-11 against-the-spread record, so I clearly wasn’t the only seller.

Poly was wildly inconsistent (Haslametrics consistency national ranking: 333rd), but signs of life were evident on rare occasions – the bout against San Diego state comes to mind, when the Aztecs needed a late second half run to pull away.

Typically, those brief moments of competence would serve as a platform to build on for a second-year head coach, but Junior Ballard’s unforeseen departure may derail that momentum for Smith. Ballard dipped town to return closer to home (Fresno), gutting the Mustangs of their get-out-of-jail-free card. Ballard revived countless dead possessions last year with tough pull up jumpers and strong, hard-nosed drives to the goal. I’ll float this out there: Of all outbound Big West transfers this summer, Ballard’s carries the most weight.

One half of the Smith brothers returns, Keith Smith. Smith’s a defensive pest and his uncle’s defensive protocol grants him unbounded freedom to hunt steals, in both man and zone schemes. However, he won’t replace Ballard’s offensive production.

In that light, Colby Rogers and Tuukka Jaakkola better drum up a hearty scoring appetite. Rogers’ high school lineage (Roselle Catholic High School in New Jersey) trained him well for the watered-down Big West. He asserted himself instantly as the Mustangs’ 2nd banana behind Ballard, displaying a similar shot making and slashing skill package as Ballard – albeit, less consistent. The surging sophomore has a few inches on Ballard, allowing him to elevate over smaller defenders in the mid-range.

Jaakkola’s throwback back to the basket game makes him a dinosaur in today’s game, but he’s able to dominate favorable matchups, as he did CSUN’s puny frontline. At this juncture, Jaakkola looks like the second-best scoring option on the roster. However, he subtly forfeited a small slice of his minutes to Alimamy Koroma late in the year, a more dynamic option at forward. Koroma’s game still needs to cook, but his length and activity can make events happen on both ends.

Riley Till and Hank Hollingsworth might be the two biggest wildcards in the entire Big West. Hollingsworth’s halfway through the 10-year plan – I’m only partially joking, since he’s been at school since 2015 – and needs just 22 more blocks to set the program record. If he can stay on the court, Smith might consider tag teaming Hollingsworth and Jaakkola together for Mushroom-sized frontline twofer.

Till’s arrival may push Kyle Colvin one notch back in the pecking order, the Mustangs’ second leading returning scorer. Both are 6’6 / 6’7 wings with all-around skillsets, great at nothing but solid at just about everything. Till earned a scholarship at Iowa last year after beginning his career as a walk-on but was pushed to backburner behind a loaded depth chart. He tallied nearly 200 minutes over two seasons at Iowa, but most of that wasn’t garbage time – he played high leverage minutes in short spurts, which points to his qualifications to be a key weapon on what shapes up to be an offensively-challenged Cal Poly offense.

Bottom Line: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cal Poly pass Fullerton and Northridge. Rogers and Till could bloom into studs, and the size up front could pose a problem for smaller Big West frontlines.