-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Lamine Diane, R So., CSUN
Coach of the Year: Joe Pasternack, UC Santa Barbara
Newcomer of the Year: Brandon Kamga, R Sr., Cal St. Fullerton
Freshman of the Year: Justin Webster, Hawaii

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. UC Irvine

Key Returners: Evan Leonard, Eyassu Worku, John Edgar, Tommy Rutherford, Collin Welp, Brad Greene
Key Losses: Max Hazzard, Jonathan Galloway, Elston Jones
Key Newcomers: Justin Hohn, Isaiah Lee, Jeron Artest, Austin Johnson, Emmanuel Tshimanga, Dean Keeler

Lineup:

Outlook: Welcome to ‘Big Man U’. Somewhere in Southern California, Russell Turner must operate a secret production facility, which manufacturers flawless forwards at the rate of a McDonald’s assembly line. I mean, how else do you explain the Anteaters collection of human giants for the past decade…

Turner’s teams are never devoid of size or physicality up front and last year’s Big West buzzsaw featured his most destructive duo to date, Jonathan Galloway and Elston Jones. These destroyers formed the foundation of the Anteaters’ interior brick wall, the bedrock of Irvine’s defensive dominance for the past three seasons. Galloway and Jones were the goalies and the paint was their crease and any fool who impeded on their turf was promptly swatted or shook.

With such an imposing fortress inside, the Irvine guards could confidentially hug their man on the perimeter without fear of being burned off the dribble. Turner’s teams always emphasize eliminating open looks from the outside, which forces opponents to score from the midrange wasteland. To use a more mainstream comparison, Turner has essentially built a replica of what Luke Yaklich and John Beilein devised at Michigan the last two years. Both systems emphasize running shooters off the 3-point line and contesting shots at the rim with discipline, as opposed to recklessly chasing block shots.

Both Galloway and Elston are gone, but there’s no signs of Turner’s big man factory breaking down. 6’8 Tommy Rutherford, a two-time All-Big West recipient, returns to anchor the frontline, along with two up-and-coming prodigies in Collin Welp and Brad Greene. Welp is a personal crush of mine, a super skilled scorer with a refined finishing touch and reliable jumper. Welp can score with his back to the basket out of the post, but he’s best utilized as a mid-range driver and face-up shooter for the Eaters, given he’s usually paired with a bigger body at the 5. 

While Rutherford can slide up to the 5 in spurts, Greene will be the main man in the middle this year. After taking a redshirt last season, Greene has completely transformed his body and now has some powerful functional strength packed into a massive 6’10 280 pound frame.

Greene should be a load this year on the low block, which gives Turner up to three interior meal tickets to play through offensively. 

However, defense still comes first for this trifecta, and we’ve yet to see how effective Greene, Welp and Rutherford can be as rim protectors without the aid of Galloway and Elston. Before reading any further, I urge all Eater fans to close an eye before looking at this next graphic - while the sample size is small, the discrepancy between Irvine’s defense without either Galloway or Elston on the floor last year is STARK:

For context, during those 200-plus possessions when Galloway and Elston were off the floor, the Eaters defense was the equivalent of a bottom-3 defensive unit in the Big West (Cal State Northridge’s defensive efficiency of 107.5 graded out at 7th in the conference). 

Offensively, there’s no reason to think the Eaters won’t come with a balanced attack, as they always have under Turner. Evan Leonard, Eysasu Worku and John Edgar will lead the charge without the services of Robert Cartwright and Max Hazzard. Cartwright was a solid floor manager at the point, who spelled Worku to start the year before taking over full time after Worku got hurt late in the season. Edgar also missed the last 10 games of the year, but his resume (a full-time starter for two seasons) confirms he’s ready to resume his role as a scoring threat on the wing. Leonard might be the most important of the bunch, far and away the Eaters’ most efficient offensive option. How he didn’t make All-Conference two years ago is still a mystery to me, but he proved last year that his 2018 tear through the Big West was far from a fluke. 

Bottom Line: It’s mystifying why Russell Turner hasn’t been plucked by a premier program yet, but until that time, the Anteaters will be a fixture at the top of the Big West standings. Joe Pasternack and Mark Gottfried’s stockpiles of talent at UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Northridge, respectively, are sure to sway some prognosticators from Irvine in their Big West champion prediction, but I refuse to be duped. Until someone knocks the Eaters off their perch, I’m betting on Turner and the boys to retain the Big West title belt in 2020.

2. UC Santa Barbara

Key Returners: Devearl Ramsey, JaQuori McLaughlin, Max Heidegger, Amadou Sow
Key Losses: Ar'mond Davis, Jarriesse Blackmon
Key Newcomers: Brandon Cyrus, Matt Freeman, Roberto Gittens

Lineup:

Outlook: Some folks out there are up in arms with the NCAA’s snail-paced conviction in handing down sanctions stemming from the FBI-induced ‘pay for play’ scandal. Joe Pasternack isn’t one of them…

As days goes by, Pasternack’s previously scarred reputation, inflicted by testimony that linked him to the Brian Bowen bribery, repairs ever so slowly. Time heals all wounds, so they say, and Pasternack’s new digs in heavenly Santa Barbara must feel light years away from the dark grey cloud of uncertainty hovering over his former home in Tucson.

Now, armed with a clean slate and a grassroots network with more connections than the New World Order, Pasternack is reeling in talent his predecessor Bob Williams never dreamed of acquiring.  Skeptics are free to speculate as to what means he’s acquiring said talent, but I won’t engage in such hearsay - all I know is that this Gauchos’ group is overflowing with high major caliber players, which could be enough in itself to overwhelm the rest of the Big West field. But, as Pasternack himself admitted in an interview with Blue Ribbon this summer, making any real headway must start on the defensive side of the ball. 

As my colleague Jim highlighted in his Big West breakdown last season, Pasternack’s disposal of Bob Williams’ zone back in 2017-18 clearly rocked the boat. The incumbents failed to mesh cohesively in Pasternack’s new man-to-man defensive structure after playing almost exclusively zone the year prior. That 2017-18 year 1 adjustment period should have been smoothed out last season, but the graduation of four senior starters disrupted the defensive continuity, forcing Pasternack to hit the reset button all over again. 

So, is this the year Pasternack’s man-to-man defensive principles finally soak in? I’m inclined to think yes. Two fixtures in the rotation are gone (Ar'mond Davis and Jarriesse Blackmon), but the rest of last year’s core is back, including a shooting star in sophomore Amadou Sow. The crux of Pasternack’s talent infusion last year came via the transfer wire, but Sow was the exception as a true freshman. A high-end 3-star recruit coming out of high school, Sow’s a live athlete with a motor stuck in high gear. On paper, his aggression shines through in the advanced stats - he posted the 4th and 7th highest offensive and defensive rebounding rates in the conference, respectively, to go along with the 10th highest block rate and the 10th highest free-throw rate. While his ball skills and shooting touch are still a work in progress, Sow’s effort and athleticism make it impossible for him not to have an impact on a game-to-game basis.

Sow’s thirst for the rim is a microcosm of the Gauchos’ offensive. The backcourt trinity of Max Heidegger, Devearl Ramsey and JaQuori McLaughlin can fill it up from all over the floor, but getting to the hoop is their forte. This collection of inside-out scorers makes the Gauchos a tough cover, as few teams in the Big West possess the stable of perimeter defensive stoppers needed to shut down all three. 

Before Pasternack brought in McLaughlin and Ramsey from high-major destinations, this was unequivocally Heidegger’s show. This threesome assimilated nicely last season, but the chemistry should only improve heading into 2020. Additionally, Heidegger’s season-long battles with concussions clearly affected him, evidenced by the volatility in his game-to-game performances during league play. When he’s right, Heidegger is a scoring assassin, especially from long distance, so forget about the 25% 3PT shooting slump he endured last season - it won’t happen again.

With Ar’mond Davis and Jarriesse Blamon departing, who stood 6’6 and 6’7 respectively, finding a running mate to pair with Sow up front is first on Pasternack’s offseason agenda. He could bump Sow to the 4 to make way for 6’10 Robinson Idehen, but to optimize Sow at the 5, Jay Nagle’s development is critical. Nagle accepted a quieter catch-and-shoot role last year, but he’s more versatile than his 3-point concentrated statline indicates. DePaul transfer Brandon Cyrus is a sneaky huge boost to an already loaded backcourt, and his size at 6’5 could qualify him for some burn at the 4 in a 4-guard lineup. Former Oklahoma journeyman Matt Freeman captured my attention at the PK80 (which feels like ages ago), but slowly evaporated into oblivion  last year buried behind a deep Sooner frontcourt. At 6’10, he can stretch the defense as an inverted forward, but also possesses a thick enough frame to compete on the boards. 

Bottom Line: Defense was unquestionably the Gauchos’ Achilles' heel last year, but the data dudes will tell you year-to-year continuity is a key predictor of defensive improvement. A year stronger and a year wiser, Sow should emerge as the interior hub that Pasternack’s extended man-to-man scheme demands. If the Gauchos can lock in defensively, the talent supply (Ramsey: Nevada, McLaughlin: Oregon State, Cyrus: DePaul, Freeman: Oklahoma, Roberto Gittens: top-50 JUCO prospect) may be enough to lift them over the Eaters for the top spot in the Big West.  

Tier 2

3. Cal State Northridge

Key Returners: Lamine Diane, Terell Gome, Darius Brown II, Rodney Henderson
Key Losses: Cameron Gottfried
Key Newcomers: Lance Coleman, Brendan Harrick, Dmytro Skapintsev

Lineup:

Outlook: Listen, I’m by no means a financial advisor (nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night), but here’s what I do know: auto-betting Cal State Northridge last year will go down as the best series of investments I’ll ever make in my life. 

Nostalgia aside, Mark Gottfried, well regarded for being a blue-chip talent magnet, deserves kudos for his work with the coaching clipboard last year. Interestingly enough, the headliners of the Matadors’ burgeoning young nucleus, Lamine Diane and Terrell Gomez, were actually hand-me-downs from former head honcho Reggie Theus, but it was Gottfried who extracted their limitless upside last season.

Rattling off Diane’s accolades would sound like Queen Daenerys’ spewing off her never-ending list of titles. Let’s just say he needed a shopping cart to carry home all the hardware: Big West Players of the Year, Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year, along with a courtesy All-American mention from the Associated Press. Literally no one put the ball in the basket more than Diane did last year (he led the country in field goals made), which was only a fraction of his wide-ranging contributions. 

At 6’7, Gottfried uses Diane like a mini-Lebron offensively. His handle and vision at that size make him a deadly trigger man to run the offense through, which opens up acres of space for his supporting cast. Gomez is the Robin to Diane’s Batman, a compact 5’9 guard with a flamethrower for a jumpshot. Gomez’s 112 triples were tops in the Big West, which he converted at a white-hot 42% clip.  

From someone who’s jabbed Gottfried in the past for his lack of tactical coaching prowess, I was impressed with the array of basic sets he utilized to get Diane and Gomez in favorable situations to score. The clip below shows a basic high-post, give-and-go, which clears out one side of the floor for Gomez to go to work:

This example above is not just a needle in a haystack. The play-by-play chart below from Synergy confirms my perception that this is a quick-hitter heavy offense, littered with strategic isolations and a myriad of pin downs and staggered screens, where Gomez is typically the target man:

While Diane and Gomez hog all the glory, a pair of glue guys in the backcourt connect the dots offensively. Darius Brown, the Matadors’ lead ball handler, was sound with the rock last season, showing no signs of immaturity initiating the offense. Off-guard Rodney Henderson is the other steadying perimeter presence, who caught fire during the middle of the season before an ill-timed  ankle injury hindered his production down the stretch.  

Two more unsung heroes who caught my attention last year were Jared Pearre and Mahamadou Kaba-Camara (‘Kaba’). Pearre’s agility and physical build enable him to do a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor. The 7-foot Kaba teased me with some jaw dropping moments last season, most notably against UC Riverside late in year - he had 4  emphatic blocks in just 11 minutes of action, helping CSUN escape by a bucket . He’s never been able to control his body and struggles to stay out of foul trouble, but he can be a neutralizer against bigger frontlines. Kaba isn’t going to consistently play 25 minutes, but he can be the lead option amongst a handful of other bigs (Michael Ou and Ron Artest III are the other notables) who Gottfried can shuffle in and out at the 5. Rounding out the primary rotation is the hyper volatile Elijah Harkless, who left Gottfried and staff slobbering for more after a monstrous final game against Utah Valley - Harkless stuffed the stat sheet to the tune of 5 steals, 6 assists and 7 rebounds, to go along with a casual 13 points. 

Bottom Line: The Matadors’ preseason hype is warranted folks. Few other teams in the conference have a young core as prolific as what Gottfried’s assembled. Barring some internal turmoil that could fester if the NCAA swings the guillotine at Gottfried, expect CSUN to leapfrog a handful of worthy contenders into the 3rd overall spot in the final Big West standings.

4. Hawaii

Key Returners: Drew Buggs, Eddie Stansberry, Zigmars Raimo
Key Losses: Brocke Stepteau, Jack Purchase
Key Newcomers: Justin Webster, Jessiya Villa, Garrett Cason, Bernardo da Silva

Lineup:

Outlook: After starting his career in Honolulu back in 2007, Eran Ganot decided to further his hoops education at one of the most prestigious coaching clinics in America, the ‘Randy Bennett School of Basketball at Moraga’, college basketball’s equivalent of the Harvard MBA graduate program. Ganot took copious notes during that 5-year stint from 2009 to 2015, absorbing all of Bennett’s trades and tricks. He also got some hands on learning experience, and reportedly played a pivotal role in the development of Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell, two Gaels’ legends. 

When Ganot returned to the island in 2010, he brought a clear vision for Hawaii’s basketball identity, one closely rooted in what his former mentor Bennett had instilled at Saint Mary’s. Over the last four seasons, concepts such as ‘Intelligence’ and ‘Unselfishness’ have become synonymous with the Rainbow Warriors’ brand of basketball (in my mind, I think of Hawaii as ‘Saint Mary’s West’). Since 2016, Hawaii’s team assist rates graded out as the 38th , 71st, 28th, and 13th highest clips in the nation, illustrating the Warriors’ willingness to share the wealth.

Ganot left the mainland before Bennett’s dynamic duo of Joe Rahon and Emmett Naar illuminated the power of a dual point guard system, but it’s abundantly clear Ganot was watching closely. With the dependable ball handling twosome of Drew Buggs and Brock Steapteau, Ganot formed his own version of this co-captain offensive approach two years ago. While this was implemented during Buggs’ freshman year, but the payoff wouldn’t arrive until last season. Slowly but surely, the Buggs / Stepteau backcourt chemistry began to gel in perfect harmony - per the chart below, Hawaii’s offense was firing on all cylinders when this twosome shared the floor together last year, scoring at a scintillating 1.15 points per possession rate:

The stark difference between than 1.15 figure and the red-shaded 0.99 figure made me step  back and reassess just how much Stepteau meant to this team. Without Stepteau, as well as the electric Sheriff Drammeh, I’m not sure Ganot has the ingredients to whip up that co-creator dynamic in 2020. Buggs now becomes the undisputed head of the snake, but I’ll have the microscope on Buggs’ perimeter support system (Eddie Stansberry and Samuta Avea, along with freshmen Justin Webster and Jessiya Villa).

A full-time starter last year, Stansberry’s a proven long range driller, often the beneficiary of Buggs’ brilliant vision. The freshman Webster carries a similar reputation as a knockdown shooter, and is next in line to replace Stansberry at the off-guard spot when he graduates. Avea is more of a wing mold at 6’6, but he can also heat up in a hurry from deep. All three can fill it up from the land of plenty, but they can’t be complacent this year watching Buggs’ set the table. One of these three will need to emerge as a reliable sidekick for Hawaii to sustain last year’s offensive fluidity. Villa’s a nice insurance policy in this regard, regarded as a pure pass-first point guard, but defenses likely won’t key in on him as a feared scorer.

The importance of filling that secondary scorer and creator void is amplified with Jack Purchase’s departure, a lights out sniper at the 4. His gravity opened up interior creases in the defense for Steapteau and Buggs to attack, and helped decongest the lane for big man Zigmars Raimo. Ganot’s got plenty of options to tinker with up front, but of the unknown returners, Owen Hulland would be the preferred emergent from this group. The 7-foot Aussie native is the closest comparable to Purchase, regarded as a pure shooter with range - he poured in 14-points in 17 minutes against UCLA last season, but never made a dent anywhere close to that the rest of the year. Another foreign import in 6’9 Brazillian Bernardo da Silva could be a star down the road, but he’s still in the fetal stages of his development. 

Bottom Line: The top-2 spots in the Big West are on lockdown with Irvine and UCSB sporting robust rosters. Behind them, it’s a rat race for the bronze medal and while I have CSUN slotted a notch above the Rainbow Warriors’ in my projected standings, Ganot’s guys are within arm’s reach of Gottfried’s uber-talented Matadors. 

5. Cal St. Fullerton

Key Returners: Austen Awosika, Jackson Rowe, Davon Clare, Johnny Wang, Daniel Venzant
Key Losses: Kyle Allman, Khalil Ahmad
Key Newcomers: Vincent Lee, Brandon Kamga

Lineup: 

Outlook: After reaching the Big West mountain top in 2018, the Titans were on cloud nine entering last season. With a dynamite backcourt duo of Kyle Allman and Khalil Ahmad spearheading the offense, a return trip to the Big Dance seemed well within grasp. In hindsight, those expectations proved too lofty for the Titans, as the freight train of momentum entering the 2018-19 season would eventually fade. That’s not to say last year was a complete flop - most Big West foes would sign up for a 2nd place finish and 10-6 league record in a heartbeat. But, for a team that returned 83% of its minutes from the year prior, the 3rd highest rate in the country, falling 50 spots in kenpom.com’s overall rankings and finishing with a sub-500 overall record was a letdown.

The 2018 hangover hit Allman and Ahmad especially hard, Fullerton’s two capital A alpha dogs. With no reliable source of alternative scoring, putting all the eggs in the Allman and Ahmad baskets made the Titans highly exposed to downside risk associated with their shooting slumps. The ‘KAs’ both watched their offensive efficiencies dip after monster  2017-18 seasons, and the Titans’ offense sank with it. 

The chart below shows the split between the Titans’ offensive efficiency with  and without their terrific twosome on the floor (conference games only):

There’s a couple of takeaways from the chart above:

• Being so highly leveraged on Ahmad / Allman clearly hampered the Titans’ efficiency, but hold your horses on claiming the “addition by subtraction” theory. Guys like Austen Awosika and Jackson Rowe now have to sustain their efficiency in a drastic uptick in usage, a tall ask for two former role players, while spot starters Davon Clare and Johnny Wang will move two notches up in the offensive hierarchy.

• Regardless of whether you think Allman and Ahmad were too territorial with the rock offensively, they were sticky defenders on the perimeter, which somewhat contradicts the data above. Perhaps I’m overselling the defensive prowess of the KAs, so there’s a chance the perimeter defense will be better behind the ballhawking of Awosika and the speedy Daniel Venzant  (missed all of last season with injury)

To resolve the scoring concerns, head coach Dedrique Taylor acquired some timely additions via the transfer wire. High Point standout Brandon Kamga will have a flashing green light to shoot, as he’ll gobble up many of the unclaimed shots left behind by Ahmad and Allman. Taylor also scooped up Nevada defector Vincent Lee, a sublime athlete at 6’8 who likely steps into the 4 alongside Rowe up front.  Local fans seem to think Wayne Arnold is on the verge of a breakout season, a former 3-star recruit who could shine outside of Allman and Ahmad’s shadow.  

Bottom Line: I’m sure many are excited to witness a more balanced, democratic scoring attack this season, which could prompt Taylor to dig deep into his freshmen-heavy bench (Doc Bradley and Tory San Antonio are the most enticing of the bunch). This definitely feels like a rebuilding and rebranding season for Taylor, but the talent is too robust for the Titans to fall too far.

6. Long Beach St.

Key Returners: Drew Cobb, Jordan Roberts, Jordan Griffin
Key Losses: Deishuan Booker, Temidayo Yussuf, Mason Riggins, Bryan Alberts, KJ Byers
Key Newcomers: Chance Hunter, Colin Slater, Michael Carter

Lineup:

Outlook: I hereby present to you, a ‘minutes continuity conundrum’. Let’s start with a simple case study to set the stage here…

Let’s say a team brought back four starters and seemingly everyone of importance off the bench from the year before. Would you expect said team to a) improve, b) regress, c) run in place? 

If you answered ‘a’ or ‘c’, you’re a logical basketball prognosticator. If you answered ‘b’, you’re either an understudy of Nostradramus or you’re just lying through your teeth - though, either way, you’d be right in the case of the 2018-19 Long Beach State basketball team. 

Head coach Dan Monson effectively trotted out the same guys as the year prior, as the Beach ranked 23rd in kenpom.com’s ‘Minutes Continuity’ metric, with 73% of the 2017-18 minutes being rolled over to last year (for context, the national average is 48%). Yet, by any reasonable scorecard, the Beach regressed last year, checking in at 225th overall in kenpom’s overall rankings, the lowest of Monson’s 11-year tenure in Long Beach. 

Now, Monson is wiping the slate clean. The cupboard has been restocked with an amalgamation of new faces, which Monson is hoping sends a shock wave of energy to a program that’s been on cruise control for three straight seasons (quote below from Blue Ribbon):

“It reminds of the first year I got here,” [Monson] says. “We brought in four freshmen and started them for four years. Are all nine [new players this season] gonna be happy? No. Are all nine gonna be preseason all-league? No. But there’s new blood and a freshness in the air and it’s much needed right now. We’re excited about it.”

Regardless of where you stand on this dilemma, there’s no disputing the talent level here. The Beach is always blessed with one of the wealthier talent pools in the Big West, and per the chart below from VerbalCommits.com, this season is no different: 

Drew Cobb, Jordan Roberts and Jordan Griffin are the notable returners, all of whom have been spot starters at some point in their career. After a promising start to his collegiate career, Griffin’s development stalled last year, but he’s had some big performances in big moments that may indicate a bounce back in his future. Unlike Griffin, Cobb is still in the early stages of his growth, but Monson may need to expedite that maturation in a hurry with Deishuan Booker graduating. Cobb was outstanding as an opportunistic scorer in a supporting role last year, but the fact that he’s yet to showcase an outside jump shot gives me pause about him becoming a top-3 scoring option. Roberts is the most established of this trio, who carried the Beach in a few games down the stretch last season. With some big losses up front, Roberts will now become the fulcrum of the frontcourt.

There’s a lot riding on the new additions, especially Tulane import Colin Slater, who has the unenviable task of stepping into Booker’s shoes. Slater earned a few starts during a two-year stint in NOLA, but he never made a splash for a forgettable Tulane team. Slater’s composite 3.3 star pedigree (he actually received a 4-star grade from Scout coming out of high school) is a justifiable reason to be optimistic that he could be a reliable full-time solution at point, but he’s still a big unknown. Chance Hunter is another heralded newcomer, a hyper versatile wing with the skill  set to be a jack-of-all-trades type of weapon. Michael Carter returns to the West Coast after starting his career at Washington, but comes directly from South Dakota State after a quick cup of coffee with the Jackrabbits last season. The towering Trever Irish will add another body to the frontcourt rotation, which should go 4-deep with Jeffrey Tan, Milos Apic and Breyon Jackson sharing minutes  at the 4 and 5 spots.

Bottom Line: The Beach’s laundry list of newcomers must produce right away for the Beach to remain competitive, but their health and availability are equally as paramount. Monson had to adapt his rotational options on the fly last year after key injuries to Temidayo Yussuf and former K-State transfer Ron Freeman dislodged the lineup continuity.

Part of me wants to gripe about Monson’s bland 2-3 zone defense, which doesn’t always weaponize the abundance of athleticism at his disposal, but I go back to the talent point I made earlier. Much like Cal State Fullerton, this feels like it should be a rebuild, but in the absence of other credible challengers in the middle of the Big West, a top-5 finish is certainly in play.

7. UC Davis

Key Returners: Stefan Gonzalez, Joe Mooney, Rogers Printup, Matt Neufeld, Damion Squire
Key Losses: TJ Shorts, AJ John
Key Newcomers: Wesley Harris, Kennedy Koehler

Lineup:

Outlook: It wasn’t so long ago you could catch college basketball’s version of the Golden States Warriors in Davis, California. I’m of course referring to the 2014-15 Aggies team, who made it rain on a nightly basis, canning an unthinkable 44% from 3-point land as a team. The 3MW research is off duty today (I’m writing this on a Saturday), but if they were on the clock, I’d task them with identifying another historical example of a team with three different guys shoot 45% or better from downtown on at least 130 attempts. 

That unnecessary trip down memory lane sets the stage for why last year’s offensively-challenged rendition was so painful to watch - exactly 309 teams in college basketball scored at a more efficient clip than UC Davis last year. This was a byproduct of multiple factors, but injuries seemed to be the prevailing inhibitor. TJ Shorts, AJ John and Matt Neufeld all missed time, each hobbled by various injuries at different points of the season, which threw a wrench in the lineup chemistry and offensive rhythm. That said, it’s hard to explain how an experienced group returning seemingly everyone from the year prior - the same group that won the Big West regular season title - could fall off the grid so quickly.

Projecting what direction the 2020 Aggies will trend is a tricky task. On one hand, the program pedigree is too strong under Les to foresee another year like last season, which was Les’ worst squad since the fragmented team he inherited his first year at the helm back in 2011. The counterargument revolves around the loss of TJ Shorts, a prolific playmaker and swarming defender, and the Aggies’ pulse the last two seasons. Shorts’ jet-quick pace was the engine behind his impact on both sides of the ball, but that unteachable burst of quickness can be found in Damion Squire, the odds on favorite to step into Shorts’ shoes this season. 

It’s hard to ignore his highly flawed individual statline, but Squire passed my [bulletproof] eye-test with flying colors last season. He’s basically a bigger version of Shorts with that same cat-like shiftiness off-the-dribble, but he can also drill it from it deep. My small sample of observations was partially validated this summer, when Squire emerged as a go-to-guy on Team Canada’s U19 FIBA squad, playing 2nd fiddle to NBA draft prospect AJ Lawson (currently at South Carolina). 

If Squire seizes the point guard spot with authority, the Aggies will be in business. There’s already a fortified supporting cast around him, headlined by two flammable wings in Stefan Gonzalez and Joe Mooney. Both Gonzalez and Mooney had multiple 3-point binges last year, but their lack of consistency forced Shorts to keep the offense afloat whenever they went cold. As high as I am no Squire, Gonzalez and Mooney can’t bank on him bailing them out the same way Shorts did last year, so they must become consistent double-digit scorers to prevent any offensive turbulence. 

The real X-factor could be Rogers Printup, a big-bodied guard at 6’4 205 pounds tailor-made for the nominal 4 spot in Les’ 4-guard lineup. Printup checked in with the 9th highest steal rate in the conference last year, a lockdown defender who meets the minimum height requirement to avoid being picked on inside. The Aggies still sacrifice rebounding and shot-blocking with Printup at the four, but Les was willing to give up size for more speed and versatility. The chart below isolates one such instance of this tradeoff, which shows how the Aggies faired with Printup at the 4 (next to 6’11 Neufeld at the 5), compared to all other lineup options:

The net effect was essentially a wash, but the discrepancy between the offensive 3PT% (45.1% vs. 31.8%) and offensive rebounding rate (15.7% vs. 22.9%) encapsulates that give-and-take Les balanced last year between a quicker 4-guard lineup and a bigger 3-guard lineup. 

All that said, Les may have secured a one-stop-shop solution to the aforementioned lineup conundrum with top-100 JUCO prospect Wesley Harris. Harris laid waste to his JUCO competition last season, averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks a contest as a freshman. He fits the mold of a versatile 4 man, who can pinch down inside to protect the rim, but step out and slide his feet on the perimeter. If Les slots him next to Neufeld, the Aggies’ interior defense could be demonstrably better than it was a year ago.

Bottom Line: A deeper dive into the roster components here completely altered my initial perception on the Aggies’ 2020 outlook. Yes, I have them slotted in the bottom-half of the standings, but a 3rd place finish would not shock me, given how tight the jogjam is between teams 3-7. If Squires parlays this summer’s momentum into the season and Harris emerges as a game changer defensively, I’ll regret not pencilling in UC Davis to the top-5. 

8. UC Riverside

Key Returners: Dikymbe Martin, Callum McRae, Zac Watson, Dragan Elkaz
Key Losses: Menno Dijkstra
Key Newcomers: Khy Kabellis, George Wilborn III, Arinze Chidom**, Angus McWilliam**

Lineup:

** eligible 2nd semester

Outlook: 19 years. 6 coaches. 0 winning seasons.

That’s the UC Riverside basketball program in a nutshell, folks. Located just outside the Los Angeles area, Riverside stands at the back of the line behind more prominent LA-based programs. In  the cut throat competition for Southern California recruits, UCR is usually stuck with the short end of the stick, often patching together rosters with unclaimed local leftovers and cast off transfers.

However, that paradigm is slowly starting to shift, thanks to the well-connected David Patrick, godfather of Ben Simmons, and his entrenched network in the Australian pipeline. While the Land Down Under is Patrick’s recruiting sweet spot, he’s slowly raising the talent base through a variety of other access points as well. It will take time, but there’s reason to believe this could be the most robust roster Riverside has fielded in over a decade.  

If you tuned in to a Highlanders game last year, you couldn’t help but notice 7’1 Callum McRae lumbering down the floor. Patrick didn’t shy away from feeding his young beast early and often, as the New Zealand product finished with the highest usage on the team. McRae’s offensive game is advanced for his age, evidenced by the soft touch he displays with both hands around the rim, but he’s far from a defensive disruptor. His shot blocking instincts and defensive positioning need work, so until Washington State transfer Arinze Chidom and TCU transfer Angus McWilliam become eligible in December, Patrick may need to disperse some of those frontline minutes to others. 

According to Blue Ribbon, McRae lost over 40 pounds this summer, which should come in handy as his workload is bound to increase - though, 20-25 minutes a game is probably where he’s best optimized. Patrick will have to call upon Daniel Mading to eat up those leftover 15-20 minutes a game at the 5, alongside the athletic swiss army knife Zach Watson at the 4. 

To accomodate McRae and his fellow giant Menno Dijkstra last season, the Highlanders played in slo-mo, checking in with 6th longest average offensive possession length in the entire country. McRae will still be the epicenter of the offense when he’s in there, so Patrick can’t speed up the pace too fast at his expense - though, I’d argue stepping on the accelerator and letting Dikymbe Martin and Pacific transfer Khy Kabellis dictate the tempo would unlock the best version of this roster.  

Since graduating high school, Kabellis has moved around more than a travel nurse, now at his 3rd school in just as many seasons. He started at North Dakota State back in 2015, where he was anointed a full-time starter right away. After two productive years in Fargo, he jet-setted west to try his hand in the more competitive WCC, but never made a mark in Pacific’s primary rotation. Now at his final destination in a league more suited to his talent level, Kabellis’ stretched out frame (6’5) and deadeye shot should infuse another jolt of scoring alongside Martin in the backcourt. 

Speaking of precise marksmanship, Martin has a case for the best all-around shooter in the Big West. Martin’s a true ‘lead guard’, too assertive to be labeled as a pure point guard, but his lethal pull-up and quick shot release open up the rest of his drive and dish offensive arsenal. While he’s not in the same stratosphere as Steph Curry (hot take alert!), Martin’s unassuming quickness and change-of-pace hesitation is ‘Curry-esque’. Defensively, he can’t guard his shadow, but Patrick brought in some reinforcements to help in this regard, most notably UTSA import George Wilborn III. Australian native Dragan Elkaz is back to torch the nets from long range, so Patrick now has some serious lineup flexibility to go ‘offense / defense’ possession by possession late in games.

While the lineup optionality and versatility are positives, too much diversity isn’t always a good thing. When your two most potent offensive weapons (Martin and McRae) sit on polar opposite ends of the spectrum, the offense can become a tug-of-war. Martin’s in peak form when operating in a pick-n-roll centric offense, while McRae’s at his best as the anchor of an inside-out, post-up centric offense. Patrick attempted to satisfy both last season, as evidenced by the Synergy play type chart below:

Trying to strike a balance between the two can create friction, a fascinating dynamic Patrick will have to wrestle with once again this year.  

Bottom Line: It’s a shame Martin won’t be able to stick around for one more season. I’d love to see him be the catalyst for a rapidly ascending young talent pool next season, but the timing is off by one year. Thanks to a few grad transfer rentals, Martin has some competent running mates this year, but it’s unlikely the Highlanders will climb any higher than 7th in the standings. A 6-12 league record is probably the best case outcome, but I refuse to move Riverside any higher than 8th.

Tier 3

9. Cal Poly

Key Returners: Mark Crowe, Job Alexander, Hank Hollingsworth
Key Losses: Donovan Fields, Marcellus Garrick
Key Newcomers: Nolan Taylor, Keith Smith, Jamal Smith, Colby Rogers

Lineup:

Outlook: All things considered, Joe Callero deserves a medal for lasting a decade at Cal Poly. It’s safe to say the writing was on the wall last season, as Callero watched two of his top-3 players graduate from a 9-win team in 2017-18. Predictably, the Mustangs bottomed out, crossing the finish line with a putrid 6-23 record, which prompted the athletic department to pull the plug on Callero. Now, John Smith, a longtime assistant at intra-conference foe Cal State Fullerton, will head up the 101 to San Luis Obispo to take his crack a revitalizing a flatlining program.  

Will Smith will be the Mustangs’ savior? That I don’t know… what I do know is that he’s earned major brownie points in my book by essentially doing this preview for me - just watch this clip in its entirety for a primer on what to expect from Cal Poly this year:

Welp, sounds like Smith’s going full blown Fahrenheit 451 on Callero’s old playbook. For those too lazy to watch the entire video, here’s a quick bullet point summary:

• Offense: Smith’s offensive philosophy is adopted from his former mentor Roy Williams, which he calls “7 and 17”

  • the first ‘7’ seconds, he’s looking to run the break - but if the defense retreats back and shuts down the transition attack...

  • the next ‘17’ seconds, he wants to move the ball from side to side (which sounds resemblant of Roy’s ‘secondary break’), in the form of a continuity motion offense...

  • After that, he’s looking to get the ball in the hands of a player with a favorable matchup, and let them attack 1-on-1

    • (it’s tough to make out what he’s trying to say before transitioning to defense, but it sounds like he’s implying that he wants someone to go 1-v-1 while the other four guys leak back on defense)

• Defense: Smith makes it ABUNDANTLY clear that he’s a defensive-minded coach (moments before taking a jab at Callero’s downy soft defense)

  • He plans to pick up full-court, 94 feet from the basket…

  • and mix up defenses frequently...

    • Specifically, he cites the old 1-3-1 Callero ran for many years before him and his intent to revitalize that scheme, albeit with some minor twists

    • He also references his desire to resurrect the old ‘amoeba defense’ patented by Jerry Tarkanian back in the UNLV glory days

Implementing Smith’s style makeover will be a whole new cast of characters comprised primarily of transfer imports. Mark Crowe, Job Alexander and Hank Hollingsworth are the only notable incumbents back, all three of whom started double digit games last season. Crowe’s shooting is a precious resource (he canned 40% of his triples last year), and may help him retain his starting spot and fend off fierce competition from the newbies. 

To replace Donovan Fields, the Mustangs’ sure handed point guard since 2016, Smith is keeping it all in the family with his son Jamal and nephew Keith. While uninspiring production at their prior destinations screams ‘nepotism’, Smith and Smith are serviceable pick ups in the backcourt. True to their family bloodline, Jamal and Keith share many similar traits on the court, both good and bad. Both are competent long range shooters, but ball security has never been their cup of tea, an odd trait for two kids that grew up with coaches and former NBA players in their family lineage.

Nolan Taylor, Colby Rogers and Malek Harwell are the other guys who will be circled on opposing scouting reports. Taylor is a dump truck inside, tipping the scales at 260 pounds  despite standing just 6’7. Smith cited improved conditioning this offseason, a critical development for his ability to play 20-plus minutes a game on a nightly basis. Harwell and Rogers should emerge as key pieces in the backcourt rotation, both big athletic guards who should instantly upgrade the Mustangs’ perimeter defense. Rogers comes from the prestigious Roselle Catholic High School in New Jersey, so he may have the highest ceiling of any of the newcomers.

Bottom Line: John Smith didn’t hesitate to drain the swamp this summer, and he could start as many as 4 first year players in his first season at the helm. The incumbents are fine, but any hope to escape the Big West cellar hinges on one or multiple of the transfers breaking out in emphatic fashion.