Big Ten Tournament Preview 2021
Note: my preseason tiers did not include Liam Robbins (Minnesota) or Chaundee Brown (Michigan). Both would have moved the needle up a bit for their respective squads.
3MW’s All Conference Team:
Player of the Year: Luka Garza, Sr., Iowa
Coach of the Year: Juwan Howard, Michigan
Newcomer of the Year: Hunter Dickinson, Fr., Michigan
Freshman of the Year: Hunter Dickinson, Fr., Michigan
Season Storylines:
As evidenced by my preseason tiers, I had a hard time sorting out the top of this league. Fortunately, the conference did the job for me during the year, as Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa separated themselves into an impressive top trio. I put Ohio State a notch below those three, but all four will be on the top two seed lines in the NCAA Tournament.
I’m not sure I whiffed on a team harder than Michigan this season. Juwan Howard (my National Coach of the Year winner, as well) showed terrific flexibility in adjusting his team’s identity without Jon Teske and Zavier Simpson, and the emergence of Hunter Dickinson as the league’s best freshman totally altered this team’s trajectory. Franz Wagner was the two-way destroyer many hoped he’d be, Isaiah Livers continued to be deadly from deep, and Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown proved to be perfect fits via the transfer portal.
Of course, Illinois is nipping at Michigan’s heels; the Illini have won 11 of their last 12, even withstanding the absence of Ayo Dosunmu for a three-game stretch. Andre Curbelo blossomed in his absence, and that raises the ceiling long-term. Iowa is on pins and needles awaiting the status of Joe Wieskamp, who emerged into a devastating “scorer” – aka not just a shooter. Oh, and yeah, Luka Garza rocks.
We’ll likely see a third meeting between Purdue and Ohio State, and this time, the Buckeyes will be full strength. The Boilermakers swept the regular season series, but EJ Liddell missed the first game, and CJ Walker was out in the second. Both are well-coached teams that could squeak past Michigan in the semis if the Wolverines are still down Eli Brooks (ankle).
Due to the setup of the bracket, it’s hard to love the long shots, and even a team with a decent draw like Wisconsin does not get my juices flowing – the Badgers beat who they’re supposed to, but they’re 0-7 against the five teams seeded above them. If Wieskamp sits out, then perhaps they (or Penn State??) could make a run, so keep an eye out there.
Maryland is the opposite of Wisconsin in its ability to beat great teams but lose to shaky ones, and the Terps have an intriguing matchup with Michigan State in Thursday’s opener. The winner is definitely in, but while the loser could also get an at-large bid, it will make for an incredibly stressful few days until Selection Sunday.
Lastly, congratulations to Rutgers! No matter what happens here, the Scarlet Knights will be dancing for the first time in 30 years. The opposite of congratulations to Indiana, who lost five straight to end the year and lock themselves into the “auto-bid or bust” category.
Tournament Preview
Tournament Predictions
(12) Northwestern over (13) Minnesota
(11) Penn St. over (14) Nebraska
(9) Michigan St. over (8) Maryland
(5) Ohio St. over (12) Northwestern
(7) Rutgers over (10) Indiana
(11) Penn St. over (6) Wisconsin
(1) Michigan over (9) Michigan St.
(5) Ohio St. over (4) Purdue
(2) Illinois over (7) Rutgers
(11) Penn St. over (3) Iowa
(5) Ohio St. over (1) Michigan
(2) Illinois over (11) Penn St.
(2) Illinois over (5) Ohio St.