-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: D.J. Burns, R Jr., Winthrop
Coach of the Year: Kevin McGeehan, Campbell
Newcomer of the Year: Collin Smith, R Sr., North Carolina A&T
Co-Freshmen of the Year: Jalen Breazeale, USC Upstate / Duncan Powell, North Carolina A&T

Tier 1

1. Winthrop

Key Returners: D.J. Burns, Russell Jones, Michael Anumba, Josh Corbin, Kelton Talford, Chase Claxton, Jamal King
Key Losses: Chandler Vaudrin, Adonis Arms, Charles Falden
Key Newcomers: Patrick Good (East Tennessee State), Cory Hightower (Western Carolina), Cameron Whiteside (Division-II), Sin'Cere McMahon (Western Carolina), Drew Buggs (Mizzou) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Someday, the Weave will deviate from its standard Big South preview protocol.

Today is not that day.

The rest of the league rejoiced upon hearing the news of Pat Kelsey’s promotion to College of Charleston. Finally, a chink in the armor – or so they thought.

First, let’s tip our cap to Kelsey. His ingenuity was synonymous with Winthrop’s esteemed excellence over the last decade. But this program is not his creation. He didn’t build the Death Star on Rock Hill from scratch. He fine-tuned it, improved it, and sustained it, yes, but this program is almost on auto-pilot.

In steps new commander in chief Mark Prosser, a former pupil of Kelsey’s and passenger on said Death Star. He knows the secret sauce to success on Rock Hill and has no intention of throwing a wrench in this apparatus.

It all starts with returning southpaw DJ Burns, who I refer to as ‘the Big Easy’. Burns is part thunder, part lightning, blessed with an immovable frame and an irreplicable skillset. Renaissance point forward Chandler Vaudrin took home Big South Player of the Year honors last year, and Burns is a safe bet to keep the plaque on Rock Hill in 2022.

We’ve already seen him do this…

… and if these practice teasers are a sign of Burns adding a burgeoning jumper to his arsenal, good luck Big South…

Speedy mini-maestro Russell Jones is Burns’ bookend. A dependable speed demon, Jones is ready to take the baton from Vaudrin after clocking a modest 15 minutes a game last season. However, Jones’ minutes may be compressed by Mizzou import Drew Buggs, a cerebral floor general and excellent facilitator himself. In some ways, Buggs is a supersized version of Jones. Both are extremely unselfish – almost to a fault – but understand their role is to spray the ball around to the abundance of weapons around them.

The other newcomers add more oomph to the shooting, scoring and playmaking departments. Patrick Good and Sin’cere McMahon can also initiate the offense, but Buggs and Jones seem to have that on lock – instead, Good and McMahon’s primary value will be tied to how well they can shoot it from the perimeter. Good’s a career 38% 3-point shooter on over 500 attempts, while McMahon is more of a wild card. Despite playing for a decrepit WCU team last year, McMahon was one of the few bright spots for Prosser – he could be a star in the making. 

If there’s one discrepancy between Prosser and Kelsey’s offensive philosophies, it’s in pick-n-roll usage. Prosser is a ball screen guru, and such action was front and center of the offense he ran at Western Carolina. For context, Western Carolina’s offensive possessions ended in PnR action roughly 21% of the time over the last three years, per Synergy, nearly triple the usage rate seen under Kelsey. In fact, no team in America ignored pick-n-roll more than the Eagles. 

It’s easy to associate free-flowing, up-tempo offenses with frequent pick-n-roll usage but this was not applicable to Kelsey’s system. Again, the pacing and spacing should look eerily similar as last year, but this specific wrinkle may steepen the learning curve for Jones, Buggs and Good, particularly Jones as the incumbent. 

Shooting is king in Prosser’s eyes, and it’s impossible to have too much of it on any team. Josh Corbin and Toneari Lane are two deadeyes with deep range. Corbin is a known assassin after canning 41% of his triples last year, while Lane is flying under the radar after injuries interrupted his development.

Cory Hightower isn’t a pure shooter by any stretch but it’s one of many tools found in his toolbox. Hightower, classified as a 3 / 4 hybrid, can bully smaller wings on the block or pull taller forwards away from the lane. From a scoring lens, Hightower may be the most versatile bucket getter on the roster. Micheal Anumba and Chase Claxton are sticky defenders, debatably two of the best stoppers in the league. Kelton Talford’s trampoline hops add another jolt of athleticism to the wing corps, while D-II import Cameron Whiteside, a wiry 6’4 wing, was lab created to play for Prosser, too. 

Between Jones and Burns, the ‘gut’ of this roster is overflowing with depth and versatility. Given Prosser’s vision of mirroring Kelsey’s run-and-gun system, the roster is well equipped to roll waves of depth at its opponents. Up to 13 players are worthy of high leverage minutes, which creates a double edge sword dilemma for Prosser. Yes, he’ll have to meticulously manage the impending newcomer versus incumbent playing time conflicts. However, these are ‘first world problems’, so to speak. Any other Big South team would sign up for this roster in a heartbeat.

Bottom Line: Kelsey leaves behind a fertile roster of talent, which Prosser augmented with a few homegrown reinforcements of his own. All in all, this is your Big South frontrunner. There’s no need to tinker with Kelsey’s recipe for winning, and Prosser won’t. There are a few enticing darkhorses slithering up the Big South ladder, but the Eagles are still ripe for a regular season title repeat in Prosser’s return to Rock Hill.

2. Campbell

Key Returners: Jordan Whitfield, Ricky Clemons, Cedric Henderson, Jesus Carralero, Joshua Lusane, Messiah Thompson, Austin McCullough, Milos Stajcic, Gediminas Mokseckas
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Dakari Johnson (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: In a topsy turvy COVID season, which lacked typical intra-squad chemistry, Campbell looked like an Olympian caliber synchronized swim team. Kevin McGeehan’s harmonious Princeton-inspired offense severed opposing defenses on repeat, despite unforeseen, injury-driven rotational shakeups.

Specifically, Jesus Carralero and Austin McCullough, two of the projected top-7 cogs in the rotation, were both MIA during the heart of the season. They weren’t the only victims, but the timing of their absences is what’s notable. Shockingly, that’s when the Camels shifted into overdrive. 

From mid-January through the end of the season, Campbell’s offense was nearly infallible. During that span, the Camels boasted the best offense in the Big South, as shown in BartTorvik’s season snapshot efficiency tool below:

Cedric Henderson and Jordan Whitfield ignited the inferno, which earned them Big South All Conference accolades by season’s end. Every scouting report starts with Henderson, arguably the most impactful two-way player in the Big South. It was Henderson’s adaptability that helped lessen the impact of McGeehan’s rotation adjustments sans Carralero and McCullough. If he has a flaw, it’s shooting, but that’s where Whitfield makes his pay. The super senior makes tough shots look easy and easy shots look like a walk in the park. You won’t find a conventional, ball-dominant point guard in McGeehan’s offense, but Whitfield is the de-facto initiator. Collectively, Henderson and Whitfield will quarterback the Camels on both ends in 2022.

A fully healthy Carralero could do wonders for this inverted offense, which stretches traditional big men way outside their comfort zone. That’s no problem for Carralero, though, a hyper-skilled dribbler and passer in a 6’8 frame. Along with big brethren Joshua Lusane, this twofer alleviates the shot creation responsibilities on the guards and wings. They’re more than just dot-connectors on offense but, in McGeehan’s system, their passing prowess sparkles.

If Carralero’s ankle flares up again, look out for Lusane’s impending eruption. Lusane’s game isn’t ‘loud’ or ‘flashy’ but he’s the ultimate jack-of-all-trades weapon. Last year, on a per possession basis, Lusane led the Big South in defensive rebounding, and finished inside the top-15 in both assists (7th) and blocks (12th), all while making a cool 56% of his triples (albeit, on low volume). Along with monstrous Milos Stajcic, a more conventional post man, the Camels are well stocked up front.

Messiah Thompson and Ricky Clemons, the two understudies to Henderson and Whitfield in the backcourt, also elevated their games during the Camel heatwave last year. Thompson instantly became one of my favorite players in the league by mid-February. The 5-8 jitterbug exploded offensively, showcasing parking lot range and head-turning quickness. Clemons’ physical gifts lay the foundation for his game. He’s a rim-hungry attacker on offense and agitating blanket on defense.

I’m not sure where NJCAA 3rd Team All American Dakari Johnson fits in this puzzle, but that pedigree alone qualifies him as an All Newcomer of the Year contender. He put up prolific numbers for a solid program at Cape Fear, but injury concerns might deflate his impact early on.

For these Camels to make good on their Big South sleeper prophecy, it all comes down to defense. Per Synergy’s defensive metrics, McGeehan has slowly veered away from his matchup 3-2 zone, which extends into a quasi-press, over the last few years. One must wonder if this is tied to the uptick in speed and quickness, which, when at a deficit, can be masked by zone. Lusane’s ascension helped move the needle in this regard, as did Johnson’s dogged on-ball defending. Expect to see a mixture of man and zone again in 2022 but both should be aided by a relative upgrade in athleticism (which came to the forefront last season).

Bottom Line: Move over Chris Clemons! This could go down as the best team in Campbell history! Can the Camels make the necessary strides on defense, often the sacrificial lamb of McGeehan’s offensive-centric identity? The emergence of Lusane translated to modest defensive improvements, but they’ll have to keep forging higher as a collective unit to keep pace with Winthrop. There’s no terrifying vertical rim protector on this roster but the relative uptick in length and agility at the 3, 4 and 5 spots should no longer drag down the pristine offense.

3. UNC Asheville

Key Returners: Trent Stephney, L.J. Thorpe, Tajion Jones, Evan Clayborne, Coty Jude, Jamon Battle
Key Losses: DeVon Baker, Lavar Batts
Key Newcomers: Drew Pember (Tennessee), Quay Kimble (D-II), Jordan Hairston (Texas A&M CC) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Mike Morrell had no interest in a quick band-aid fix up. His predecessor, Nick McDevitt, set the bar sky high during a stupendous five-year run prior to Morrell’s arrival. Short-term solutions via the transfer portal were not an option, at least not at first. 

Rather, Morrell gutted the program from head to toe, ignoring any shortcut temptations – his guys, his system, period. The 2018 recruiting class served as the unfortunate lab rats to kick off this renovation project. That team, comprised of exclusively freshmen, was destined to fail from the second they took the floor that year. It wasn’t pretty, but it was all part of Morrell’s long-term master plan.

Sure enough, from the depths of despair to the top of the totem pole, the Bulldogs are finally back where they belong. Despite devastating injuries to key players last season, Morrell guided Asheville to a 9-5 Big South record. It’s time to remove the ‘hunter’ label and dust off the ‘hunted’ tag.

There were many mini-milestones along this journey to resurrection. Morrell broke down the daunting challenge into more manageable components, rebuilding the pillars brick by brick:

"I feel like the biggest thing we needed to address was the little things. My first couple years we were focused on offensive things like scoring and 3-point shooting; but as we are now, a good team surrounded by good coaches, we've got to focus on getting stops, offensive rebounding, everybody focusing on playing their role."

The final defensive portrait started to come into clarity last season, a far cry from the conservative, shell-like defense we saw in 2019. For Morrell, a renowned advocate of frenetic full-court pressure, this has been a slow burn. First, he needed the personnel to execute it. Now, it’s about mastering the reads, rotations and anticipations. 

From a personnel lens, DeVon Baker and Lavar Batts are big losses, but Morrell’s got plenty of ammunition still in reserves. L.J. Thorpe is Morrell’s queen on the chessboard, a do-everything, position-less unicorn of sorts. He technically plays the 4 but he’s more of a point forward on the offensive end. Trent Stephney is the Bulldogs’ offensive conductor and defensive pest, a true two-way star. Tajion Jones is the token sharpshooter, an elite marksman with unbounded range. Over the last two seasons, Jones’ 42.7% 3-point percentage on a whopping 300 attempts is unrivaled by anyone in the Big South.

There’s no such thing as having too many guards in Morrell’s world, which explains the offseason pickups of Quay Kimble and Jordan Hairston. Hairston looked like a star in the making in his rookie season back in Texas but labored through an injury as a sophomore. Toward the end of that stellar freshman campaign, Hairston cozied up to an off-the-bench microwave role – that experience is subtle, yet meaningful, given that’s how he’ll likely be deployed here. 

Along with Stephney, Jamon ‘Doc’ Battle and Evan Clayborne are the other defensive stalwarts. Battle and Clayborne are key disruptors in Asheville’s end-to-end pressure. In the half-court, Battle will check the opposing team’s best perimeter threat while Clayborne will marshal the paint. Despite standing 6’6, Clayborne’s timing and bounce make him one of the best shot blockers in the Big South:

Naturally, he’s the Bulldogs’ best rebounder as well, an area that badly needs assistance this year. Last season, Big South foes snatched 65% of their missed shots, which equates to a horrid 35% defensive rebounding rate – for reference, seeing a defensive rebounding rate in the mid 30s is usually associated with a debilitated SWAC team.

Tennessee import Drew Pember is a major wildcard, but his power conference pedigree and size surely can’t hurt. At worst, he’s a high upside contingency plan and a useful ace in the hole against monstrous frontlines. At best, he’s UNCA’s best player and potential destroyer up front. Given the Bulldogs’ issues cleaning the glass last year, don’t be shocked to see Pember promoted to full-time starter immediately.

Then there’s Coty Jute, who will do exactly what Coty Jute does best, which is rip nets from downtown. At 6’9 190 pounds, he’s the model for stretch forward prototypes.

Bottom Line: It’s official. UNC Asheville is back and cooking with gas, folks. This is a top-4 team with a bullet and has the upside to make a legitimate run at Winthrop for the top spot on the podium, especially if Pember explodes on to the scene.

4. Gardner Webb

Key Returners: Jordan Sears, Lance Terry, D'Maurian Williams, Kareem Reid, Ludovic Dufeal, Anthony Selden
Key Losses: Jaheam Cornwall, Jacob Falko, Jamaine Mann
Key Newcomers: Zion Williams (UMKC), Julien Soumaoro, Brendan Mykalcio, Leon Williams 

Lineup:

Outlook: I loved Jaheam Cornwall and Jacob Falko unconditionally, but there’s something brewing with this rising sophomore and junior class, folks. There’s a host of sharp backcourts in the Big South but few possess the titillating upside of the Runnin Bulldogs’ foursome: Lance Terry, Jordan Sears, D’Maurian Williams and Julien Soumaoro.

Soumaoro, who hails from heralded Woodstock Academy, is the baby of the bunch, a true freshman with all the cliché ‘New York guard’ intangibles. ‘Lead guard’ is the proper classification for his position but man can he share the sugar…

We put Soumaroro under the microscope so suddenly because he’s a potential X-factor for this team. His ability to dart through the defense and find open shooters and cutters could slingshot this offense into the clouds. Alternatively, he may endure the usual freshman roadbumps, delaying this optimism for another year while he adds muscle and adjusts to the speed of the D-I game. 

By default, Terry is technically the elder of this group, but age and experience are two different things, the latter of which Terry is lacking. Terry was on the cusp of a breakout sophomore season, but a bum foot kept him on ice for all but four league games. Ignoring those three meaningless spot appearances in February, Terry’s last two appearances in non-conference were special. He hung 23 points against Florida State, then followed that up with a 26-point outburst against Hampton, which included a perfect 9-for-9 from the charity stripe. Terry can shoot, slash, and defend at a high level.

Terry’s flashes of stardom were enticing but GWU doesn’t need 20 points a game for this offense to tick, especially with two scintillating sophomores in Sears and Williams back in the saddle. Last season, this twofer toggled back and forth between 5th starter and 6th man, with Williams moving into the top-5 late in the year, while Sears was relegated to the pine. Cornwall was the primary initiator last year, but Sears and Williams flashed their facilitation chops on countless occasions, all while filling it up from all over the floor. Depending on how quickly Soumaoro gets up to speed, Sears and Williams may end up co-piloting the offense, at least to start. Terry can also handle the rock as well, so ball security and shot creation are non-issues, even without Cornwall and Falko – as seen over the last eight years, there’s rarely an interruption in Tim Craft’s backcourt supply chain. 

The Runnin’ Bulldogs doubled as the ‘Chuckin’ Bulldogs’ last year, hoisting threes at the second highest rate in the Big South. It was bombs away from all over the floor, as five players attempted at least 85 triples over the 26-game season. Cornwall and Falko were two of those gunners, the latter of whom was super streaky all year long. Thus, a full season of Terry – assuming the same guy we saw last fall shows up – is effectively a net upgrade over Falko. Plus, Sears and Williams are safe bets to hover around 38% from long distance, presumably on higher volume, which bodes well for GWU’s shooting outlook.

The offensive fireworks will be sourced primarily from the perimeter, while the frontcourt does the thankless dirty work behind the scenes. Anthony Selden needs to own that defensive menace persona on the wing, a role he proved worthy of last season. Zion Williams, a two-year student of Billy Donlon’s ‘Defense for Dummies’ at UMKC, is another shutdown candidate. Williams was full-time starter for a Roos team that flirted with the top-200 in most of the reputable metrics last season.

The Bulldogs were mediocre, at best, in containing dribble penetration last year, but, luckily, Kareem Reid and Ludovic Dufeal were there to bail out the young backcourt. GWU’s defense graded out as 5th best in the Big South last year, but an upward climb in that department should be imminent. Thanks to Reid and Dufeal, the Bulldogs boasted the nation’s 7th best block rate last year. However, unfortunate opponent shooting luck and persistent fouling offered other avenues for opponents to score. If those latter headwinds calm this season, Reid and Dufeal will get the credit they deserve. It’s a bummer the SEC seduced Jamaine Mann, a freakish athlete, away from Boiling Springs – still, Reid and Dufeal can hold down the fort without Mann.

Even though Craft’s last three seasons look like defensive disappointments, the conference-only splits are telling: the Runnin’ Bulldogs have finished 5th, 3rd and 5th since 2019, proof that this end of the floor hasn’t been a glaring eyesore.

Bottom Line: Year in and year out, Gardner Webb is always in the hunt, regardless of who laces ‘em up. Since Craft took over in 2013, the Bulldogs have yet to finish below .500 in league play, a model of consistency matched only by Winthrop and Radford. That institutional success, coupled with the talent supply Craft returns, warrants a spot in our illustrious ‘Tier 1’. It may look like a younger team, relative to the extra old Big South counterparts but the key contributors are experienced and the rookies (Soumaoro, plus Brendan Mykalcio and Leon Williams) are oozing with potential.

Tier 2

5. Radford

Key Returners: Xavier Lipscomb, Chyree Walker, Dravon Mangum, Lewis Djonkam, Shaquan Jules
Key Losses: Fah’Mir Ali, Quinton Morton-Robertson
Key Newcomers: Tai'Reon Joseph (Austin Peay), Rashun Williams (South Florida), Artese Stapleton (D-II), Roshaun Black (JUCO), Cam McNeil (JUCO) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Mike Jones, yes, you know who, was hot. Red hot. Two regular season conference crowns in the past four years garnered the attention of many, but it was UNC Greensboro that won the courting contest. 

For Radford, a new reign begins under the direction of Darris Nichols. The former West Virginia standout is a Mountaineer man through and through. He grew up right *here* in Radford and attended high school just down the road, a precious homecoming narrative that will certainly fuel his fire.

Nichols spent his first post grad year alongside Bob Huggins in Morgantown, before making numerous pit stops across the Sun Belt region. First, Northern Kentucky, then Wofford, then Louisiana Tech, before finally settling in the swamp in 2014. He spent over half a decade in Gator country, following Mike White directly from La Tech to succeed the illustrious Billy Donovan era.

Those who track our CBB coverage know we’ve been critical of Mike White, but we won’t transpose those frustrations on to Nichols. There’s a reason Jon Beilein and Bob Huggins fancied Nichols coming out of high school. He exudes that vintage ‘head coach on the floor’ point guard mantra. And, as pointed out by the Roanoke Times this summer, Nichols has earned the respect of his peers, too:

• Last year, Nichols was ranked No. 18 on ESPN’s ‘top-40 under 40’ list of Division-I head and assistant coaches

• Jeff Goodman rated Nichols the No. 2 assistant in the Southeastern Conference, based on a poll of SEC coaches

Stylistically, Nichols is a guardian of all guards. As a former guard himself, he devoutly believes great guard play is the foundation of success in college basketball.According to Blue Ribbon, Nichols wants to play a spread-out, four-guard offense, enabled by shooting and floor spacing. His belief is that sacrificing size at the two conventional forward spots, the 4 and the 5, can be mitigated through interchangeable size spread across all five positions.

Just look at who he inked this offseason: Tai'Reon Joseph (Austin Peay), Artese Stapleton (D-II), Roshaun Black (JUCO) and Cam McNeil (JUCO), all of whom stand 6’2 or taller. Along with bull-strong Xavier Lipscomb, the most prominent of the returners, Nichols wasted no time instilling his desired DNA into this roster. This guard gang is interchangeable not only in size, but also in skill. In many ways, Nichols likes clones of himself as a player– that is, versatile guards who can all handle, pass and shoot with equal competence. There isn’t a pureblood point guard or stand-still shooting guard in this bunch, but their all-around games is exactly what Nichols wants. 

Here’s the lone concern for Nichols in his quest to build Radford from the outside in: this roster, ironically, comes with a stout frontline at the ready, while his backcourt production is largely unknown. The aforementioned newcomers are promising but shifting focus away from the proven incumbents carries risk. If he can navigate this potential friction, the Highlanders should be poised for another upper half Big South finish. 

Lewis Djonkam and Chyree Walker were nothing short of magnificent last year under Jones’ watch. Walker, an elite rebounder with guard and wing skills, is best suited to thrive in Nichols’ system. On offense, their roles may evolve, but their defensive impact should not. Along with bouncy inverse forward Dravon Mangum, this trio was responsible for holding Big South opponents to 45.6% shooting inside the arc, the best clip in the league. South Florida transfer Rashun Williams and incumbent Shaq Jules offer Nichols two more long wings to add to the perimeter length. 

Bottom Line: Nichols’ sterling reputation and prior mentor resume are enough to buy stock in the Highlanders in their first year under the new regime. The interesting dynamic here is that Nichols brought in a slew of new guys tailor-made for his stylistic blueprint but also inherited a productive chunk of last year’s nucleus in the frontcourt. Depth is never a bad thing, but role optimization will be a challenge for the first-year head honcho.

6. North Carolina A&T

Key Returners: Kameron Langley, Blake Harris, Tyler Maye
Key Losses: Tyrone Lyons, Fred Cleveland, Kwe Parker
Key Newcomers: Collin Smith (UCF)***, David Beatty (La Salle), Demetric Horton (Purdue Fort Wayne), Marcus Watson (New Mexico St.), Justin Whatley (NC Central), Duncan Powell, Kyle Duke

***As of November 1st, Collin Smith had not yet been added to the official roster. However, he is planning on enrolling in early December and should be eligible for the spring semester

Lineup:

Outlook: Will Jones is a wunderkind. Since taking the reins as full-time head honcho during the 2020 campaign, Jones has never looked back.

He now faces a new challenge: ushering the Aggies into a new conference turf. He’s not coming empty handed, either. This roster is leaps and bounds better than your run of the mill SWAC or MEAC program.

Collin Smith, UCF’s leading scorer in 2020, sent shockwaves through the Big South with his tardy commitment to NC A&T. The hyper skilled forward sat out last year due to COVID concerns but he’s as talented as any player in this conference. His offensive talents are rivaled by only a handful of other forwards in the league but defensively is where his presence will make a world of difference. The Aggies’ shrimpy frontline last year was annihilated on the glass – in fact, only Chicago State was worse. Opponents grabbed 36% of their missed shots, an area Jones must address immediately. 

Duncan Powell, according to David Horton at 247sports, is the highest recruit in program history. The electric 4-star forward de-committed from Arkansas to follow in his cousin’s footsteps, as reported by the Dallas Morning News:  

On Powell’s phone lock screen is a picture of his cousin, former NC A&T forward Adrian Powell, making a jump shot against Morgan State in the 2013 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference championship game. Adrian Powell had 14 points that game, including two key free throws late, to help NC A&T win 57-54. That was the last time NC A&T made the NCAA Tournament.

At 6’8, the former DeSoto standout will need to dust the cobwebs off from sitting idle throughout the 2021 winter with a knee injury: 

Blake Harris, another former 4-star recruit, and his supersonic speed are back to ignite the Aggies’ head-snapping pace. Harris profiles as a point guard, but he’s morphed into a combo 2-guard since finally setting in at NC A&T. He’s a match made in heaven for Jones’ helter-skelter chaos. He can wreak havoc in the backcourt defensively and is a slippery driver offensively.

For those keeping score at home, that’s a former AAC All Conference caliber player + two 4-star recruits. And we’re just getting started…

David Beatty (La Salle), Marcus Watson (New Mexico State) Demetric Horton (Purdue Fort Wayne) and Justin Whatley (NC Central) look like B-list newcomers compared to headliners, but each should emerge as a key cog in the rotation. Beatty and Horton are All Conference caliber talents, both of whom hail from systems that are good prep courses for Jones’ style.

If you read Winthrop’s prognosis above, yes, this preview charts a similar course. The amount of talent sitting in reserves will set the tone for the Aggies’ maniacal offense and manipulative defense. Last year, the Aggies played slower than most of their MEAC peers (finished 6th in pace during conference play) but expect Jones to slam the gas pedal with this upgraded bench at his disposal.

Kam Langley is the lighter fuel in both aspects. His instincts are elite, both as an offensive distributor and as a defensive thief. Jones is lucky to pencil in a 4-year starter at the point guard position, a luxury few other schools have in this transfer trigger happy landscape. Tyler Maye returns for his bonus year, an off the bench spark plug that likely takes a backseat to the star-studded newcomers.

Bottom Line: If Jones can weaponize all these flammable individual ingredients, the Aggies may burn Club Corbett to the ground. In good faith, we can’t crown the kings of Greensboro Big South champs, yet, but the Aggies should be one of the more captivating college basketball subplots all year long, especially when Smith is deemed eligible.

7. Hampton

Key Returners: Russell Dean, Marquis Godwin, Dajour Dickens
Key Losses: Davion Warren, Chris Shelton
Key Newcomers: Rio Haskett (Harvard), Najee Garvin (Nicholls), Pinky Wiley (Delaware St.), DeAngelo Epps (Charleston), Luc Therrien

Lineup:

Outlook: The Pirates, once a perennial powerhouse in the MEAC, are still searching for that next big break. Hampton’s been in the mix the last three seasons but hasn’t been able to clear that proverbial hurdle. Head coach Ed Joyner knows his Pirates are knocking on the door, flushed with prolific talent and power conference size.

Still, Hampton hasn’t been able to duck key injuries in each of the last two seasons. Rather than cross his fingers and hope for the best, Joyner went deep sea fishing in the portal this offseason. At first glance, depth will no longer be a problem – now, the challenge is integration:

“Chemistry is the issue, [now],” Joyner said Wednesday at Big South media day. “This is the first time that I’ve looked at this big a group of new faces. It’s probably the deepest team I’ve had. Now we’ve got to make it work right.”

Joyner’s best teams from the early to mid 2010s were built on defense. Recently, the pendulum has swung back the other direction, largely a function of personnel happenstance, rather than a stylistic directive imposed by Joyner. 

That, however, doesn’t jive with the current roster construction. On paper, this team should be at the top of the Big South totem pole. Here’s an even weirder dichotomy, based on Hampton’s defensive performance last year. The Pirates, somehow, led the conference in effective field goal percentage defense, but finished 9th in overall defense:

That seems impossible, but the data doesn’t lie.

Let’s try to cut through the fog here. For starters, last year was an outlier season for the obvious reasons. Thus, Joyner’s defense was never in sync as a collective unit, despite boasting freakish individual defenders, namely Dajour Dickens.

Dickens was the linchpin of Old Dominion’s 2019 NCAA Tournament team, which fielded a top-40 caliber defense nationally. The 7-foot giant continues to be an eraser at the rim but is in dire need of assistance, specifically on the boards. Losing productive swingman and reliable glass cleaner Edward Oliver-Hampton didn’t help, but the rebounding and broader defensive issues ran deeper than that.

One specific wart that popped up was in ball screen coverage. Per Synergy, the Pirates graded out in the bottom-30 nationally in defending pick-n-roll action, a gut punch in a league where guards heavily dictate offense. Granted, this could tie in with the COVID and injury disruptions, but the sea thieves were downright abysmal the year prior, too.

On the other end of the floor, Joyner should sharpen his team’s pick-n-roll defense with their own ball screen prowess on offense. Russell ‘Deuce’ Dean and Davion Warren were wizards in such scenarios last year, the latter of whom bolted for the Big-12. Rio Haskett, the former Harvard man, will seek to fulfill his recruiting prophecy, as he was once a lauded prospect coming out of high school. Along with Haskett, Joyner welcomes DeAngelo Epps, a powerful utility wing, and Pinky Wiley, an underrated lead guard, to the mix. Raymond Bethea, Daniel Bannister and Amir Nesbitt round out the notables in the primary rotation.

Joyner showered Nesbitt with rave reviews, touting his versatility potential, while Bannister, a smooth scorer, is in the same boat (can they stay healthy?). Cut from that same wing cloth as Bannister is Marquis Godwin, a highly regarded Old Dominion transfer, who was hot and cold all season long. Godwin’s a mystery box at this point in his career. His range of outcomes span from ‘feast-or-famine reserve’ to ‘All Conference caliber scorer and shotmaker’.

Najee Garvin, debatably the best of the new settlers, may be the antidote Joyner needs on both ends of the floor. Not only can Garvin buoy the defensive front, but his scoring consistency should stabilize an offense largely predicated on shooting. He was Nicholls’ most reliable performer last season, showcasing a graceful slashing ability from the wing.

Bottom Line: Aaaarghhh! The Pirates are starting to sail north, with the compass set to the top of Big South standings. The coaches and media picked the Pirates to finish 5th in the Big South’s north division, behind Longwood and North Carolina A&T. As implied by our aggregate standings above, I’m buying way more stock in Joyner’s 2022 turnaround tale.

8. Longwood

Key Returners: Justin Hill, DeShaun Wade, Leslie Nkereuwem, Jesper Granlund, Zac Watson
Key Losses: Juan Munoz, Heru Bligen
Key Newcomers: Jordan Perkins (NC Central), Isaiah Wilkins (Wake Forest), Michael Christmas (James Madison), D'Avian Houston (Charleston), Prosper Obidiebube (Chattanooga) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Trying to solve the Longwood riddle last season was a three-month game of ‘whack-a-mole’.

Timing’s never been my thing, I guess.

In hindsight, it was foolish to expect the Lancers to be a well-oiled machine from the jump (my first swing and miss of last year’s misevaluations). Head coach Griff Aldrich deployed two rookies, Justin Hill and Leslie Nkereuwem, as everyday starters, while alpha dog scorer DeShaun Wade was on the mend. Shorthanded and inexperienced, the Lancers were stuck soul searching early on.

Then, everything flipped. That early stove fire was quickly extinguished, and Longwood was chuggin’ along by January. Wade and Hill, Longwood’s co-orchestrators, were instrumental in the second half turnabout. Both are model athletes with enviable physiques. For Hill, it took time for the skill to catch up with the physical tools. For Wade, he just needed to get healthy. Once both boxes were checked, it was off to the races.

Hill is more of a slasher, while Wade is more of a shooter, but both are tough shot makers in traffic. Here’s Hill showcasing his end-to-end speed and explosion:

Out from the transfer portal comes Jordan Perkins, a quintessential point guard from NC Central. Perkins’ wealth of experience – he was the starting point guard on two straight NCAA Tournament teams at NC Central – will be invaluable for this young Lancer club. He’ll be the perfect connector piece between Hill and Wade, deferring to their scoring prowess while selectively picking his own spots. And, as astutely pointed out by Mike Ashley in Blue Ribbon, Aldrich has taken a fancy to dual-point guard lineups in recent years.

Isaiah Wilkins comes to town after two prior stops at power conference programs (Virginia Tech and Wake Forest), where he faded into oblivion the last two years. He was outstanding as a rookie at VT and figures to be an instant asset on the wing. Aldrich leaned on his bench heavily in 2019 and 2020 and was trending back to a 9-man rotation by the end of last year, too. That bodes well for JMU transfer, Michael Christmas, Charleston import D'Avian Houston, along with a pair of rookies, Jaylani Darden and Ga'Khari LaCount. The depth continues with versatile hybrid wings Zac Watson and Jesper Granlund, along with bouncy, yet undersized, 5-man Leslie Nkereuwem.

The broad stroke characterization of this roster is fleet of foot, multi-positional guards and wings with chiseled physiques (notably Hill, Wade, Christmas and Houston). This makeup, predictably, generated immediate gains on the defensive end (Longwood finished with the 2nd best defense in the Big South last year). However, there’s cause for concern heading into 2022. Last year, Longwood was annihilated at the rim, allowing opponents to convert 66.8% of their near proximity attempts, per Haslametrics.com. Meanwhile, opposing shooters were cursed against the Lancers from the outside, enabling Longwood to hide a somewhat fragile interior fortress.

The perplexing thing about that dichotomy is that, in 2020, it was completely flipped. Big South teams killed Longwood with the 3-ball in 2020 but were stonewalled at the rim, largely due to Jordan Cintron and JaShaun Smith’s interior presence.

Here’s what we know for sure. This team is athletic and built to contain dribble penetration, as the Lancers rarely give up an easy driving avenue to the rim. However, devoid of top-flight size in the lane, those who can get to the rim are usually unfazed. Aldrich’s defense, by design, can combat that by forcing opponents into mid-range jumpers but even that trait diminished last year without a feared enforcer up front.

There’s a lot of moving parts in Longwood’s stylistic identity. Could it be that Aldrich is still in ‘lab experimentation’ mode? Or, is he simply adapting to his roster’s strengths on an annual basis? Given the respect we have for Griff here at 3MW, we lean toward the latter.

Here’s one such example from the offensive side of the ball: the Lancers hoisted threes at one of the highest rates in the country during Aldrich’s first two seasons. Last year, presumably recognizing this was not the strength of his backcourt, Aldrich refined the offense to optimize his downhill slashers.

Bottom Line: This team shapes up to be Aldrich’s best since he took over at Farmville. This placement in the standings may not align with said prediction but the collective improvement of virtually every team in the Big South is daunting. This young nucleus is percolating with potential and could crack the top tier if all breaks right.  

9. Presbyterian

Key Returners: Rayshon Harrison, Trevon Reddish, Brandon Younger, Owen McCormack, Winston Hill, Kirshon Thrash, Ambaka Le Gregam, Zeb Graham
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Terrell Ard Jr. (UAB) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: All things considered, it was a bumpy second year ride for Quinton Ferrell. Ferrell, who now enters that pivotal third year on the sidelines, is taking a patient, measured approach in his program rebuild, much like Mike Morrell at Asheville. Ferrell’s predecessor, Dustin Kerns, was a tough act to follow. In 2019, Kerns notched 20-wins, an improbable achievement at PC, aided by a freshman phenom in Adam Flagler (you may have heard his name mentioned on the national champion Baylor Bears last season).

Rather than chase the near-term, ‘win now’ carrot, Ferrell went full blown tear down and rebuild. Last year, he finally brought in his top recruiting targets after completing a full cycle on the trail. Unfortunately, the delayed debuts of Trevon Reddish, Brandon Younger, and Winston Hill, three monumental transfer additions, put the Blue Hose at a severe disadvantage out of the gate.

By late January, PC was buried in the depths of the Big South standings, sitting at 3-8 overall and 1-6 in the league. There was nowhere to go from up and, eventually, progress commenced. The Blue Hose, despite finishing 4-6 over their final 10 contests, made notable strides. Pulling back the analytic layers reveals there was real positive movement in the advanced metrics (KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslametrics, etc.), especially during the month of February.

It took time for Ferrell’s transfer trifecta and a fun youth movement to hit their stride in unison. Once the individual pieces started to mesh, PC proved it could hang with anyone in the Big South, and Rayshon Harrison suddenly blossomed into one of the can’t miss rookies in the league. All optimism surrounding the Blue Hose in 2022 starts with Harrison, who is a power conference talent masquerading as a Big South player. The 6’4 do-everything guard is ready for blast off in year two.

Reddish, a two-way stalwart, is back as Harrison’s partner in crime, while Younger, a long-limbed forward, will toggle between the wing and forward spot. Younger isn’t as comfortable in a guard role but the Blue Hose’s crunchtime lineup could slot him at the 3, to make room for Hill and Owen McCormack. McCormack is a skillful inverse forward while Hill is a beast on the block. 

Before being sucked into the allure of PC’s top 5, let’s revisit the facts of the 2021 report card. Despite a renovated roster and a budding star in Harrison, PC’s offense oddly regressed last season from the year prior. Turnover woes and poor shooting were the primary culprits, the former of which should naturally improve with a young backcourt gaining experience and repetitions.

However, the Blue Hose aren’t exactly in the red zone when it comes to offensive progress. In other words, they’ll need a quantum leap on this side of the ball to make a significant move upwards in the standings. Refer the stark chasm between PC’s offensive efficiency last year and the rest of the Big South pack:

Truth be told, the Blue Hose made those late season baby steps with defense. This team is long all five positions, starting with the 6’4 Harrison as the head of the snake. Reddish is already renowned as a dogged defender, Younger boasts a 7-foot wingspan up front and UAB transfer Terrell Ard adds another athletic asset to the mix. Look for Ard to see run at both forward spots, potentially as a defensive change of pace option to McCormack at the 5.

Bottom Line: It’s easy to see why many are calling their shot with Presbyterian as the official Big South dark horse in 2022. The offense, however, must show demonstrable gains before PC can be taken seriously as a top-4 team. The defense, however, is what gets lost in the shuffle and should ensure the Hose are competitive night in and night out.

10. High Point

Key Returners: John-Michael Wright, Bryant Randleman, Jaden House, Caden Sanchez, Alex Holt,Emmanuel Izunabor
Key Losses: Lydell Elmore
Key Newcomers: David Caraher (St. John's) 

*** Per Blue Ribbon, Ahmil Flowers tore his ACL over the summer and will miss the entirety of the 2021-22 campaign

Lineup:

Outlook: The Tubby Smith era in Kentucky, Minnesota and Texas Tech all finished on high notes. As for High Point, well, the clock is ticking…

Did his opening act in 2019 fool us all?

On the heels of that 9-7 Big South performance, Tubby brought in a program reboot starter kit heading in to 2020. The prized possession? John-Michael Wright. The multi-talented guard was one of three freshmen thrown right to the wolves. The unseasoned rookies were hung out to dry in their inaugural collegiate season, victims of the typical first year ebbs and flows.

Such pain is the price for long-term growth, though, an investment Tubby hoped would yield major returns last year. Based on the analytic measuring sticks, there were gains. The Panthers outpaced by KenPom and BartTorviks’s preseason expectations by a considerable margin.

However, that baseline starting point was near the caboose of the D-I spectrum – in other words, it was a low bar to clear. More importantly, the wins and losses didn’t fall in line, either, as HPU checked in with a 6-11 conference record. The COVID asterisk applies here, I guess, but it was certainly not the year Tubby had in mind.

Ideally, those three freshmen from the 2020 recruiting cycle would be blossoming into fringe All Conference caliber performers by now. Well, only John-Michael Wright remains, and all momentum has officially stalled out – in fact, the Panthers are at risk of going in reverse in 2022. 

The loss of Ahmil Flowers (ACL) and Lydell Elmore (departure) could be crippling, as High Point must replace 19 points and 10 rebounds of nightly production. Contingency plans are limited, as you might expect from a team that posted a ghastly 45% effective field goal percentage last year, the worst clip in the Big South. Bryant Randleman, one of two returning starters, is a quintessential glue guy who offers little in terms of scoring or shooting – though, he is a sticky on-ball defender. Jaden House is an impressive physical specimen, but barring a colossal sophomore breakout, he too lacks the scoring and shooting punch this roster needs to keep defensive attention away from Wright.

Unless one of the incoming freshmen stand out immediately (Brock Williams seems like the most enticing prospect of the bunch), Bryson Childress may be Tubby’s lone beacon of hope. I like to think of the electric jitterbug as ‘mini-Mac McClung’:

Not many bring that kind of ‘drip’ to the hardwood night in and night out. If Childress can become a serviceable Robin to JMW’s Batman, the Panthers have a chance to compete.

It’s only fair to mention Zack Austin directly after Childress, who came in alongside Childress in the 2020 recruiting cycle. A broken wrist delayed his D-I debut so we’ll see what the presumed top-notch athlete can bring to the table this year.

For the record, if you’ve wandered this deep into the Big South forest (read: are crazy enough to read Big South deep dives), take a tour through Jordan Majewski’s perceptive takes on the league. He set the tone for High Point quite pointedly – and I wholeheartedly agree:

I love Tubby Smith, but you have to wonder if the flex offense and ball-line defense are relics of the past

As averse to the flex as I am, St. John’s import David Caraher’s multi-positional toolset could flourish in such a system, which often creates mismatches against conventional positional prototypes. He likely slides into the nominal-4 next to Caden Sanchez or Emmanuel Izunabor. Sanchez was a terrific garbage man in 2020 but regressed last season, while Izunabor forged his way into the primary rotation – he appears to have the higher ceiling of the two.

Bottom Line: In summary, John-Michael Wright needs help. Immediately. Caraher is a nice pick-up from the Johnnies, but Tubby will need others to answer the bell. I remain bullish on the House / Childress sophomore tandem, but that’s a lot riding on their shoulders, too. JMW can win a few games by himself but any climb towards .500 lies in the palms of his running mates and how consistently they come to the rescue.

11. Charleston Southern

Key Returners: Deontaye Buskey, Sean Price, Ja'Quavian Florence, Travis Anderson, Sadarius Bowser, Jamir Moore, Emorie Knox
Key Losses: Phlandrous Fleming
Key Newcomers: Cheikh Faye (Eastern Kentucky), Imajae Dodd (UNC Wilmington), Tahlik Chavez (Iona) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Low times in the Lowcountry…

Living in Charleston makes a 3-18 season slightly more palatable but last place is still last place, and that’s precisely where the Buccaneers found themselves at season’s end.

Barclay Radebaugh and the Bucs were decimated by injuries from all angles last year. Travis Anderson’s 2021 campaign lasted all of 10 minutes before a torn Achilles put him on ice for the season. That’s more than Deontaye Buskey can say, who busted his shoulder before the season began. 

Superstar Phlan Fleming tried to stop the bleeding but even his incendiary scoring outbursts weren’t enough to overcome a paper-thin bench and a young, fickle backcourt. Without Anderson and Buskey, Ja'Quavian Florence and Emorie Knox, two unseasoned rookies, were thrown into battle without proper training. Sean Price and Jamir Moore served as adequate security blankets while Florence and Knox were learning on the job, but the collective results were still rather poor. Oft times, it looked like Fleming was playing 1-on-5.

By mid-January, a problematic pattern had developed. Every Charleston Southern game seemed to follow the same script: the Bucs would stay within striking distance for about 20-30 minutes, but ultimately crack late in the game.

The double whammy of no experience and no depth was the detonator for these late game implosions, and CSU always found themselves holding the short end of the stick at the final buzzer.

This heartbreaking four-game span was a microcosm of that recurring pattern:

·       1/25 vs. Gardner Webb: Up 7 with 4 minutes left in first half, lost by 9

·       1/29 vs. Campbell: Led with under a minute to go, lost by 1

·       1/30 vs. Campbell: Led by 10 at the half, lost by 8

·       2/11 vs. High Point: Led by 17 early in the 2nd half, lost by 4

That longwinded trip down memory lane is not meant as an excuse. Rather, it’s a recalibration of the jumping off point from last year to this year. In short, the Bucs were a lot better than their 2-15 Big South record showed. Against the likes of Winthrop and Campbell, this team looked like it belonged. 

To bridge the gap from competing to winning, Radebaugh brought in some experience to reinforce the frontline alongside Sadarius Bowser. Cheikh Faye, once a lauded prospect out of Chipola CC, was a modest producer for a good EKU team last year, while Imajae Dodd, the epitome of an ‘above the rim’ leaper, profiles as a plus rim protector and finisher. 

Radebaugh also touted his rookie class as one of the best in program history. If 2022 starts to get Déjà vu vibes, expect these youngins to eat into the veteran minutes right away. The two worth spotlighting are Claudell Harris and Kalib Clinton. One can flat out score (Harris) while the other can flat out soar (Clinton). In a high school playoff game last year, Harris scored 22 points in a single quarter, canned 11 triples for the game and finished 12-12 from the charity stripe. Clinton, on the other hand, turned his heads with an unthinkable 13 block performance in one game. His highlight film showcases that turbo charged leaping ability:

Bottom Line: Injuries ruled the day, well year, in Charleston last season. Pegging the Buccaneers as the last place runner up doesn’t sit well with me, but it’s tough to distinguish teams within this muddled second tier – someone must end up near the bottom of the barrel. Like USC Upstate, Chuck South boasts an enticing crop of underclassmen and could be poised for major moves in 2023.

12. USC Upstate

Key Returners: Dalvin White, Bryson Mozone, Mysta Goodloe, Khydarius Smith
Key Losses: Tommy Bruner, Everette Hammond, Nevin Zink
Key Newcomers: Ahmir Langlais (Western Carolina), Nick Alves (JUCO), Jalen Breazeale, Jordan Gainey, Floyd Rideau (South Carolina St.)

Lineup:

Outlook: According to Blue Ribbon, USC Upstate missed 28 of a scheduled 32 practice days leading up to the season last year. On top of that, head coach Dave Dickerson coached remotely due to family health concerns related to the pandemic.

No practice. No [in-person] coach. BIG problems.

That Category 5 COVID tornado derailed the Spartans’ season before it even began. A 5-11 record slotted Upstate in the basement of the Big South standings, alongside Presbyterian and a few games ahead of Charleston Southern.

The cupboard is officially empty – everything ran through now departed Tommy Bruner and Everette Hammond last season – so Dickerson will commence phase 1 of the roster retool: replenish talent. His most promising prospects are fresh out of high school, though, and will need an experienced support system to usher them in to the Division-I lion’s den. 

Dalvin White returns as the presumed floor general, a jet quick dribbler and precise passer:

White was relegated to a complementary role alongside Bruner and Hammond last season, but he won’t shy away from the limelight this year. White hit the ground running as a rookie back in 2019 and hasn’t skipped a beat since.

Bryson Mozone is the other key returner, a productive ‘3-and-D’ wing. His skill and offensive versatility are limited but a robotic shooting release helped him connect on 39% from long distance last year. Josh Aldrich is another hybrid swingman and part-time starter for three years. He’s never lived up to his reputation as a shooter but partially compensates by weaponizing his length on the defensive end. Nick Alves, a JUCO arrival, may turn out to be a deluxe version of Aldrich. Alves is noted for his dual-threat scoring ability, and projects as a superior floor spacer to Aldrich.

The incumbent guards, Mysta Goodloe and Cartier Jernigan, along with South Carolina transfer Floyd Rideau are safe insurance policies on the perimeter but none are long-term pillars to build on – given the realistic outlook for Upstate’s 2022 season, fast-tracking the freshmen seems wise. Rookies Jalen Breazeale and Jordan Gainey are the lauded recruits to track, either one of whom could slide into the starting lineup right away. Gainey can really score it, and is particularly adept at shooting off movement: 

If I could only pick one of this freshmen duo, however, I’m putting my eggs in the Breazeale basket. He bears a striking resemblance to the reigning WAC Player of the Year, Darrion Trammell, one of my favorite players in college basketball. Despite his youth, Breazeale’s already blessed with a pro-level body – in width, not height. Gainey might hold the higher ceiling, but Breazeale already looks wise beyond his years:

Up front, Ahmir Langlais could be a sleeping giant, particularly if Dickerson plays more through the post this season (as he has historically):

Khydarius Smith and Jatayveous Watson will round out the frontline rotation, both of whom were solid in brief spells last season. 

Bottom Line: This is a bad time to lose two premier playmakers on the perimeter (Bruner and Hammond), especially with no tagged replacements waiting in the wings. Dickerson’s return to live, in-person coaching will offset a fraction of the personnel departures but this still feels like a transition year for the Spartans.