-Matt Cox

Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Jared Butler, Jr., Baylor
Coach of the Year: Bob Huggins, West Virginia
Newcomer of the Year: Cade Cunningham, Fr., Oklahoma St.
Freshman of the Year: Cade Cunningham, Fr., Oklahoma St.

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. Kansas

See full preview here: #3 in our Top-40 countdown

2. Baylor

See full preview here: #5 in our Top-40 countdown

3. Texas Tech

See full preview here: #8 in our Top-40 countdown

4. West Virginia

See full preview here: #10 in our Top-40 countdown

Tier 2

5. Texas

See full preview here: #22 in our Top-40 countdown

6. Oklahoma State

See full preview here: #39 in our Top-40 countdown

7. Oklahoma

Key Returners: Austin Reaves, Brady Manek, De'Vion Harmon, Alondes Williams, Kur Kuath
Key Losses: Kristian Doolittle, Jamal Bieniemy
Key Newcomers: Trey Phipps, Umoja Gibson (North Texas)***, Elijah Harkless*** (Cal St. Northridge) 

*** need waivers – this preview assumes both are sitting out the 2020-21 season, but Kruger confirmed he’s seeking immediately eligibility for both

Lineup:

Outlook: Now two years removed from the Trae Young circus, it’s back to the boring old basics in Norman. Without the need to cater to an assertive superstar like Trae (or Buddy Hield before him), balanced, mistake-free ‘Sooner ball’ has returned, a direct reflection of Lon Kruger’s stoic, steady demeanor. 

Gazing ahead to next season, it’s standard preview protocol to call out the loss of a 1st Team All-Conference caliber swing man, in this case Kristian Doolittle, OU’s leader in points and rebounds last season. I recognize Doolittle’s distinctive impact last year is nothing to shrug off. He was already a matchup nightmare before developing a reliable outside jumpshot last season, a dangerous addition to an already lethal offensive arsenal. But, when it comes to replacing monster production and galvanizing star power, Kruger’s been there and done that.

The advanced on / off statistics prove that Oklahoma’s returning three-headed monster, Brady Manek, Austin Reaves and De’Vion Harmon, fared well without Doolittle’s services last year. Doolittle rarely came off the floor, but a 250-possession sample size is *large enough* to convince me that the Manek / Reaves / Harmon triumvirate can keep the offense afloat:

As versatile as Doolitte was, it’s certainly possible the Sooner offense may find more rhythm and flow without him. Doolitte had a tendency to fall in love with tough twos (don’t cringe too hard analytic stat heads), which, at such a high volume of attempts, dragged down OU’s efficiency. 

The torch will be passed to Manek, who went on a tear in conference play last year (58% true shooting percentage and 38% from long distance against Big-12 foes). Kruger discovered how to weaponize his pinpoint marksmanship last year through creatively designed screening sequences and quick hitters. Manek’s a dream date in pick-n-roll action for any guard, particularly in pick-n-pop. He’s quick to relocate off the initial screen and a quick-trigger release makes it impossible to recover in time, assuming the initiating guard can bend the defense. 

The chance to work with a PnR partner like Manek should have Reaves and Harmon salivating this season. Harmon still lies on the raw end of the offensive skill spectrum, but his cat-quick burst makes him a tough contain with the ball in his hands. The lefty shared the sugar with recent defector Jamal Bieniemy last season, so with Bieniemy out of the way, the former top-60 ranked prospect will have ample opportunities to fulfill his recruiting pedigree prophecy.

Reaves is undoubtedly the more refined shooter and shot maker, even though last year’s ghastly percentages tell a different story. Reaves had a demanding offensive role last year, a stark contrast from his cozy reserve role at Wichita. Could this explain the sharp drop off in efficiency from his sophomore campaign? It’s plausible. But a 25% conversion rate from long distance, the second worst clip in the Big-12 last year (for all players who attempted 70+ threes), simply won’t cut it.

Consistency will be key for Reaves this year, as he’ll be promoted from First Officer to Captain of the backcourt bunch with Doolittle departing. Reaves has a tendency to force the action on occasion, but I’m banking on him breaking that habit in his second full season under Kruger’s tutelage – though, maybe I’m still in a trance from that 41-point explosion in the regular season finale against TCU.

Kruger tinkered with a myriad of different lineups last year, part of which was due to the freshmen volatility. Harmon found himself in a timeshare with fellow rookie Alondes Williams, a multi-skilled power wing with a knack for knifing his way through the defense – Harmon is the clear ‘breakout candidate’ bet, but Williams is right there as well. Jalen Hill and Victor Iwuakor were the other two highly touted freshmen expected to produce right away last year, but their production was dubious at best. This duo doesn’t need to set the world on fire, but Kruger needs to be able to call their number without hesitation. 

The other ripple effect of Doolitte’s departure is an impending reversion to a traditional three guard, two forward starting lineup. 

“We should play a little bigger [this year],” Kruger told the Athletic this offseason. “I don’t know if having more size means we’ll throw it inside more, because we’ll still spread it. But we have some bigs and some wings who can post.”

On the defensive side of the ball, Kur Kuath is the secret sauce in this revised recipe . While Manek was a serviceable shot-blocker last year as the primary rim protector, the restricted area immediately became a no-fly zone once Kuath checked in.

Kuath’s defensive highlight reel is littered with emphatic blocks like the one above. Among all players clocking 10 minutes a game or more last season, Kuath’s 15.4% block rate ranked 4th nationally. Shockingly, the block party didn’t come with a side of hacks, evidenced by a *reasonable* 4.2 fouls per 40-minute foul rate. Assuming Kuath is penciled in for ~20 minutes a game, the Sooners’ should boast a top-30 defense for the third consecutive season. Slotting Kuath in the epicenter likely downsizes Manek to the 4, his positional comfort zone, while redshirt freshmen Rick Issanza and Anyang Gurang should collectively gobble up minutes as Kuath’s backups. 

Bottom Line: This Sooner roster isn’t going to win any beauty contests. If you’re looking for a highlight-reel star or a lauded freshman phenom, I’d advise changing the channel. But if textbook defense and mistake-free offense turns you on, then Boomer Ball is your go to landing page for basketball erotica. The Big-12’s top-4 is in a league of their own, but Oklahoma’s equipped to compete right in that tier 2 group, and steer clear of the TCU, K-State and Iowa State construction projects below them.

Tier 3

8. TCU

Key Returners: RJ Nembhard, Kevin Samuel, PJ Fuller, Francisco Farabello
Key Losses: Desmond Bane, Edric Dennis, Jaire Grayer
Key Newcomers: Kevin Easley (Chattanooga), Charles O’Bannon (USC), Terren Frank, Eddie Lampkin, Mike Miles

Lineup:

Outlook: Pinpointing the exact inflection point of TCU’s 2020 tailspin is tricky, but my detective skills point to ‘the Red Raider hangover’ as the leading suspect. The Horned Frogs’ 65-54 victory over in-state rival Texas Tech on January 21st vaulted TCU to 4-2 in the conference standings and 13-5 overall. After striking out in all big game opportunities during the non-conference, this felt like the piano being lifted off the Frogs’ back.

Turns out, that soothing sensation was merely temporary…

TCU would proceed to go 1-7 over the next month, with six of those seven defeats decided by double digits. In the Big-12 pressure cooker, a losing streak isn’t just forgivable – it’s expected. But, there’s a fine line between a brief skid and an extended meltdown. The Frogs bottomed out on February 10th in the rematch against Tech – the final score might be confused for a TCU football non-conference tune up (88-42).

Jamie Dixon and company salvaged some respect with wins over West Virginia and Baylor on their home floor late in the year, but the final product (7-11 in Big-12, 16-16 overall) was objectively Dixon’s worst work of art since arriving in Fort Worth in 2016. In hindsight, Kendric Davis’ shocking decision to transfer, to crosstown rival SMU no less, in the middle of last summer was the gash that never healed. A glowing young talent with a world of potential, Davis had Frogs’ fans convinced he was a worthy successor to dual point guard maestros Alex Robinson and Jaylen Fisher. His defection caught everyone off guard, and stripped TCU of an established playmaker at the point of attack.

Desmond Bane tried to hold it all together, but he couldn’t mask the irregular play of Francisco Farabello, RJ Nembhard, PJ Fuller and Dedric Dennis. This guard committee was a possession killing quartet, susceptible to carless ball security and shaky shot selection. TCU coughed up the rock more than anyone else in the Big-12 last season, an alarming stat when you factor in Bane’s steady hand on the perimeter.

Any upward movement in the Big-12 standings must start with stabilizing the backcourt. Dixon’s waning confidence in his perimeter playmakers may have attributed to a downturn in tempo last season, relative to the torrent transition attacks led by Fisher and Robinson the two years prior. TCU played at the slowest pace in the Big-12 last year, a function of Dixon harnessing his volatile backcourt with speed bumps.

The pull back in transition opportunities meant TCU became highly leveraged on its half-court efficiency, which is also predicated on sound guard play. Now, a quick history lesson on the evolution of Dixon’s offensive philosophy:

Like many great coaches, Dixon’s adapted his style over the years. His most recent advancement was shifting from a traditional 3-out, 2-in lineup to a 4-out, 1-in structure, inspired by the late, great Rick Majerus. This relationship originated back in the late 90s while Majerus was at Utah, and Dixon was at nearby Northern Arizona under Ben Howland. Over time, Dixon put his own stamp Majerus’ original vision. Dixon now deploys what he refers to as a 4-out ‘dead corner’ structure, which positions two guards up top and two wings deep in each baseline corner (reminiscent of commonly used NBA blueprints).

This stylistic overview is the backdrop for why top-flight guard play is the key element in Dixon’s offense. Carving out extra real estate in the backcourt lays the pavement for two lead ball handlers to initiate offense in conjoining ball screen action – per the chart below, notice the recent uptick in pick-n-roll usage over the last two seasons (data from Synergy):

This is where Nembhard and Fuller need to hone their craft. The inexperience and pedigree excuses have expired for this tantalizing duo, both of whom possess enviable length for attacking guards (Fuller 6’4, Nembhard 6’5). They’re cut from the combo guard cloth but scoring and playmaking versatility is exactly what this offense demands. Despite Farabello’s reputation as a surgical passer, he’s actually best suited as a filler 3rd guard in this context. He’s the best pure shooter of the bunch, so his gravitational pull off the ball is pivotal for sustaining floor spacing. Farabello can still showcase his innate dime-dropping ability when he attacks hard close outs via straight line drives, but his deadeye marksmanship is of utmost importance.

The X-factor is Chattanooga transfer and former SoCon Freshman of the Year, Kevin Easley. At minimum, Dixon will ask Easley to assume Jaire Grayer’s role from last year – that is, an opportunistic sniper from deep. Easley can score inside and out, but if Dixon can mold him into a deadly catch-and-shoot driller, it will force defenses to think twice about pinching down on Nembhard and Fuller’s penetration. Bane and Grayer made 130 triples as a unit last season, a cavernous void that must be replenished immediately (and why I’m harping on Farabello and Easley’s shooting prowess).

On the other end, Easley’s arrival should alleviate the glass cleaning burden off Kevin Samuel’s broad shoulders up front. Samuel was one of the few bright spots for Dixon last season. He held his own as a one-man defensive watch dog in the lane and bloomed into a deadly pick-n-roll outlet on the other end.

Former Ohio State transfer Jaedon LeDee will spell Samuel off the pine, an overqualified backup given his recruiting pedigree coming into college. Charles O’Bannon, another high-major, lauded-recruit castaway, recently received the green light from the NCAA to play immediately. He’s a major wildcard at this juncture, coming off a season ending injury at USC, where he failed to live up to his McDonald’s All-American pedigree as a freshman. O’Bannon’s an explosive, jack-of-all-trades type asset, as is sophomore Diante Smith, who had a roller coaster freshman campaign last year.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dixon toss a Hail Mary with his unseasoned freshmen – Terren Frank, Eddie Lampkin and Mike Miles are all 3-star caliber prospects – but all precedents of rookie success under Dixon have been accompanied by a stellar class of veterans to shepherd them along, a dynamic lacking from this year’s rendition.

Bottom Line: Not even Desmond Bane, the winningest player in the history of the program, could lift TCU out of the Big-12 gutter last year. The Frogs tanked without an established guard gang, which is pivotal to unlocking the beauty of Dixon’s offense. For TCU fans, it was a rude awakening to how spoiled they were with Alex Robinson and Jaylen Fisher slicing and dicing defenses on a nightly basis. Barring transformative leaps from Nembhard, Farabello and Fuller this summer, clawing back into the upper half of the Big-12 standings feels like a steep mountain to climb.

9. Kansas State

Key Returners: Mike McGuirl, DaJuan Gordon, Montavious Murphy, Antonio Gordon
Key Losses: Xavier Sneed, Carter Diarra, Makol Mawien
Key Newcomers: Kaosi Ezeagu (UTEP), Rudi Williams (JUCO), Carlton Linguard (JUCO), Nijel Pack, Luke Kasubke, Selton Miguel, Davion Bradford

Lineup:

Outlook: K-State fans. Before writing that scathing letter to your athletic department demanding Bruce Weber’s head on a spike, join me for a quick trip back in time to the summer of 2016… 

*Hops into the DeLorean, ignites engine, hits the gas*

It’s June 1st, 2016. You’re a few months removed from missing the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row, a sour conclusion to Weber’s fourth season at the helm. Your angst is peaking. Your patience is eroding. You can’t help but join the blame game brigade, so you start pointing the finger in Weber’s direction…

Pause.

Now, imagine that same summer you’re offered a deal from the Devil. His proposal? Over the next three seasons, K-State will make three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, advance to the Elite 8 and derail Kansas’ Big-12 title streak. The price? Suck badly the two years after…

Maybe I’m missing the boat here, but if I were in *your* shoes, I’d sign on the dotted line in a millisecond.

Ok, back to the future.

From my vantage point, this is where we’re at right now in the Bruce Weber story arc. Granted, I’m an outsider, so excuse any contextual blind spots or omissions of key information – but from what I can gather, last year’s train wreck was simply the cost of doing business.

The point of that abstract time travel hypothetical is that, in my opinion, Weber’s done a rock-solid job as K-State’s basketball CEO. Unfortunately, the ‘what have you done for me lately’ momentum is mounting against him…

As we gaze into the crystal ball, fans will likely see one of two things:

1. A promising young nucleus that’s forming the foundation for the future. Or,

2. A desolate roster that’s going nowhere, fast

The lone senior on the roster, Mike McGuirl, will be responsible for chaperoning the next generation of young guns. A sound combo guard and knockdown shooter, McGuirl will have the greenest of lights to chuck whenever and from wherever he pleases. McGuirl can double as a secondary ball handler, but he’s best optimized as a catch-and-shoot guy on the wing. Opposite McGuirl will be DaJuan Gordon, a fearless gunner and most seasoned of the sophomore class. Gordon quickly climbed the depth chart as a rookie last year with his tenacious ball pressure on defense, a skill Weber and his staff hold in high regard.  

In the absence of offensive firepower, Weber will replicate last year’s formula for success: unleash swarming perimeter havoc to generate offense from defense. The pesky pressure turned over opponents at one of the highest rates in America, which was the bedrock of last year’s 40th overall ranked defense. Gordon will be the lead dog in this attack this year, along with McGuirl and newcomers, Nijel Pack, Selton Miguel and Rudi Williams. 

For my money, Pack is the one to keep an eye on, a highly underrated prospect who will be flying under the radar, relative to his Big-12 freshmen cohorts. Hailing from the epicenter of basketball’s heartland (Indianapolis, IN), Pack isn’t your traditional point guard prospect. His highlight reel isn’t flashy, but what he lacks in flair he makes up for in substance. Pack handles the ball on a string and a low center of gravity makes it impossible for opposing defenders to dislodge the rock. His drives are usually set up by hesitation and deception, lulling defenders to sleep before slithering into the lane with an effective first step. Pack’s midrange game is especially sound, armed with a precise floater that allows him to score over long defenders.

However, Pack’s bread and butter is his picturesque jumper, with range that extends well beyond the 3-point arc. He’s developed a reputation as an automatic foul shooter, a big indicator that his jump shot will translate long term.

To hedge against size and durability concerns, Weber ponied up for a robust insurance policy in Rudi Williams, a north of the border JUCO standout. Williams is touted as one of the top JUCO prospects in the land (#4 per 247sports; #54 per JUCORecruiting), thanks to his stellar passing ability. The Canadian led the NJCAA in assists last season, but, regarded as a tough shot-maker, he can also throw it in the ocean. Rudi carries that tough, gritty guard gene Weber’s adored over the years, which may propel him ahead of Pack for the opening day starting nod at point.

Rounding out the rookie class are two more kids I’m high on (if you can’t tell by now, I’m in on this crop of freshmen). As a fellow St. Louisan, Chaminade product Luke Kasubke has been on my radar for a couple years now. He’s a lethal shooter with parking lot range, but he’s got some bounce in his step as well. Selton Miguel is my personal favorite of the bunch, a vicious rim attacker who oozes an infectious swagger. Miguel’s a physical specimen with the length and strength to guard multiple positions. He’s particularly effective in transition, able to knife his way around backpedaling defenders before gliding to the bucket. 

Those aforementioned names will all be vying for three positional spots, because the frontcourt is loaded with depth. The big development this offseason was UTEP transfer Kaosi Ezeagu securing his waiver to play right away, the odds-on favorite to replace Makol Mawien at the 5. ‘Eze’ is a force inside and already has Division 1 experience under his belt, which should give him the edge over 7-foot freshman Davion Bradford in the forward pecking order.

6’11 Carlton Linguard also figures to be in the mix for immediate burn, another lauded JUCO prospect (12th ranked JUCO player, per 247sports). Linguard’s a leaner version of Eze and Bradford and shapes up to be the best rim protector of the group. While Eze is a menace on the glass, Linguard’s ability to challenge and alter shots at the rim might make him equally, if not more valuable, on the defensive side of the ball.

That leaves Montavious Murphy and Antonio Gordon, two sophomores who had their seasons interrupted by injuries last year. While both were in and out of the lineup last season, Weber was forced to trot out a smaller, 4-guard lineup with Xavier Sneed as the de-facto second forward. While this unlocked a switchable, speedy defensive front on the perimeter, it also created a porous interior fortress. Even though Murphy and Gordon aren’t Dwight Howard level shot blockers, their combined length and agility will neutralize last year’s size deficiencies, while still enabling Weber’s patented ball hawking defense. 

Bottom Line: While Bruce Weber landed a promising freshmen class, there’s no Michael Beasley’s walking through that door. It’ll take time for the new wave of talent to pop, but Weber deserves patience after what he harvested in 2018 and 2019 using the same long-term approach. How quickly this amalgamation of new faces gel will determine whether this transitionary season 1) generates buzz for the not-so-distant future, or 2) cranks up the temperature under Weber’s tush.

10. Iowa State

Key Returners: Rasir Bolton, Solomon Young, George Conditt IV, Tre Jackson
Key Losses: Tyrese Haliburton, Prentiss Nixon, Michael Jacobson
Key Newcomers: Jalen Coleman-Lands (DePaul), Javan Johnson (Troy), Tyler Harris (Memphis), Blake Hinson*** (Ole Miss), Xavier Foster, Dudley Blackwell, Darlinstone Dunbar, Jaden Walker 

*** still needs wavier – if approved, Hinson figures to be a no-brainer plug-and-play at the 4, given his inside-out scoring prowess

Lineup:

Outlook: Steve Prohm is about to walk the plank. After a Tyrese Halliburton injury detonated the 2019-20 campaign, Prohm’s now staring down the barrel of another throwaway season (oops, I just showed my cards in the second sentence of the preview). Here’s the harsh reality:

• Prohm’s Iowa State resume is now stained by two objectively poor seasons: 2018 (13-18 overall; last place in Big-12) and 2020 (12-20 overall; 2nd to last place in Big-12). Surreal bad luck with injuries warrants some sympathy, but it’s hard to defend the stagnating momentum on the recruiting trail. The inability to procure and nurture organic talent from within has Prohm clinging to the transfer wire like a fantasy baseball player repeatedly refreshing the player page. That strategy worked wonders during the Fred Hoiberg era, but the transfer well is no longer the fertile oasis the Mayor once harvested on an annual basis.

• This year’s roster is a microcosm of Prohm’s talent acquisition shortcomings. Last year’s four-man freshman class boasted just one player ranked inside the top-200 of 247sports.com’s composite rankings. This year’s rookie class packs a stronger punch than last cycle – Xavier Foster is a top-75 4-star prospect, and Dudley Blackwell and Darlinstone Dubar are both fringe top-150 recruits – but narrowing the gap between Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State with this uninspiring young nucleus feels farfetched, especially without robust upperclassmen.

Painting a duck black and calling it a swan is how I feel about anointing Rasir Bolton the offensive general. Dressing him up as a lead guard is an unnatural pivot from his traditional combo, off-guard DNA - at his core, he’s a purebred scorer, wired to hunt the rim whenever he touches the rock. Bolton shot it well from distance in conference play last year, but he can’t use that as a crutch this season. In a Halliburton-less world, Prohm needs to re-program Bolton as slash-first creator. Why?

1. Bolton’s efficiency is optimized when he attacks the tin, which unlocks his knack for drawing contact and racking up points at the charity stripe

2. Bolton’s dribble penetration will open up drive and kick, catch-and-shoot looks for rising sophomore Tre Jackson, transfer acquisition Jalen Coleman-Lands, the freewheeling gunner from DePaul, and Tyler Harris, another courageous chucker from Memphis.

From February onward (post Halliburton injury), Cyclones fans saw a failed experiment with Bolton and Jackson as the primary backcourt duo, so any bullishness on a 2021 rebound hinges on major contributions from Coleman-Lands and Harris. When locked and loaded, JCL is a stick of dynamite, capable of single-handedly swinging momentum with a barrage of triples. However, for every “no, no, no, YES!” energy shot ‘JCL’ injects, there’s five possession killing heaves that don’t fall. And now, with Harris recently receiving waiver clearance, Prohm faces a tough juggling act mediating potential shot allocation tension.

Consider the 5’9 Harris a smaller, nimbler version of Coleman-Lands. He’s jet-quick with the rock but often ignores that agility advantage in favor of launching from distance. A glass half-full view sees Harris’ inclusion as a necessity for a team starving for offensive ammunition. However, my gut tells me Harris does more harm than good on this particular team, especially if he has to share shots with Bolton and JCL.

This may sound like a stretch, but Troy transfer Javan Johnson could be the solution to all the aforementioned chemistry issues – that is, assuming he’s the savior Prohm touts him to be, as detailed in an offseason breakdown by the Gazette:

“We played him the same way we played Marial (Shayok) during his sit-out year,” Prohm said. “Javan played point guard for the second team. When you look at Javan, he’s a double-figure scorer from Troy but he fits into how we play. He’s long, lengthy, skilled and has the ability to play multiple positions. When we play four guards, he could play the one, two, three or four for us. When it’s late in the shot clock, he’s a guy that can go make a basket or make a play for us. He has great offensive instincts. I’m really excited about his versatility.”

As much as I want to drink all of this kool-aid, I can’t discount the fact that Johnson wasn’t even the go-to option on a putrid 2019 Troy team, which bottomed out after star player Jordon Varnado went down. The video below showcases the best of Johnson’s toolkit (fluid slasher and tough shot-maker), but the slow-twitch burst gives me pause as to how effective he’ll be as a creator at this level: 

The freshmen Blackwell and Dunbar are two more rangy athletes Prohm hopes can bolster the depth on the wing. Per the quote below from the same Gazette article, I love Prohm’s vision for deploying Blackwell and Dunbar, which is akin to the 2019 roster concoction:

“We got back to being long on the perimeter. In 2018-19, we were 6-foot-5 or 6-foot-6 one through four,” Prohm said. “Dudley Blackwell is in that range and Darlinstone Dubar is in that range too. They’ll have a chance to play right away and I’m excited to see what they can do.”

Conceptually, I’m on board with this approach. However, there’s a fundamental flaw in that 2019 roster comparison to this 2021 squad. Halliburton, along with Marial Shayok and Talen Horton-Tucker, were blessed with pro-level wingspans, allowing them to switch freely onto opposing forwards without sacrificing size and length. Additionally, their offensive versatility created constant mismatches on the offensive end, which may be a bridge too far for these raw rookies. 

The frontcourt features a few garbage men, but each are masters of that craft. George Conditt fostered a fruitful relationship with Halliburton as a pick-n-roll partner last year, as he blossomed into a rim running weapon. Granted, Haliburton put most of Conditt’s opportunities on a platter last year, so Conditt’s value is somewhat constrained by the guards ability to find him diving to the rim. The versatile veteran Solomon Young holds an experience edge over Conditt, but I’d prefer Prohm award Conditt the starting nod at the 5 in a four-guard lineup. Though, it’s reasonable to assume Young and Conditt will also be deployed in tandem for short spurts.

Prohm’s lineup preference will be a big determinant in how much Xavier Foster plays next year. Foster’s pedigree seems to be rooted more in potential than ready-made ability, but it doesn’t take a professional scout to understand the hype. His skill and body control for an 18-year old 7-footer is alluring, but lateral quickness, a soft frame and lagging explosiveness will be tough hurdles to overcome against Big-12 frontlines.

Bottom Line: Steve Prohm is a man floating at sea, helplessly clinging to a deflating raft while the sharks circle beneath him. At the risk of short-selling the experienced newcomers, particularly if Blake Hinson ultimately clears the waiver hurdle, this feels like a roster full of B-list transfers punching above their weight class in a brutal Big-12 landscape.