-Matt Cox

Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: David McCormack, Sr., Kansas
Coach of the Year: Bill Self, Kansas
Newcomer of the Year: Marcus Carr, R Jr., Texas
Co-Freshmen of the Year: Kendall Brown, Baylor / Tyrese Hunter, Iowa St.

Tier 1

1. Kansas

See full preview here: #2 in our Top 40 countdown

2. Texas

See full preview here: #5 in our Top 40 countdown

Tier 2

3. Baylor

See full preview here: #11 in our Top 40 countdown

4. Texas Tech

See full preview here: #28 in our Top 40 countdown

5. West Virginia

See full preview here: #29 in our Top 40 countdown

6. Oklahoma State

See full preview here: #33 in our Top 40 countdown

Tier 3

7. Oklahoma

Key Returners: Umoja Gibson, Elijah Harkless, Jalen Hill
Key Losses: Austin Reaves, DeVion Harmon, Brady Manek
Key Newcomers: Jordan Goldwire (Duke), Tanner Groves (Eastern Washington), Jacob Groves (Eastern Washington), Ethan Chargois (SMU), Marvin Johnson (Eastern Illinois), CJ Noland, Akol Mawein (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Billy Tubbs. Kelvin Sampson. Jeff Capel. Lon Kruger.

The only thing more certain than Oklahoma fielding a competitive basketball product is knowing you’ll hear the Boomer Sooner fight song upwards of a dozen times before the first TV timeout…

Over the last 40 years, the OU athletic department is effectively batting 1.000 on college basketball coaching hires. Even the short-lived Capel era featured two NCAA Tournament appearances in five seasons, including an Elite Eight run in 2009. For a place where basketball will always be a stepchild to the gridiron, 10 Sweet-16s and three trips to the Final Four ain’t too shabby, folks.

In that context, should we be at all surprised that OU hired Porter Moser? You know, the poster model for coaching consistency, both in process and results. For Moser, the destination changes but the approach will not, as detailed at length in Brian Hamilton’s program spotlight this summer: 

The philosophies and principles underwriting Loyola Chicago’s rise from dregs to darlings will be applied at Oklahoma. Moser surely refined his concepts over a decade. He’ll likely adjust them a touch to the level of raw talent on hand. But the Sooners will play dogged man-to-man defense, honed by the same shell drill in practice, with its same ultra-particular demands for everything all the way down to hand position. The offense will emphasize spacing and skill and precision. And this summer, the installation of the fundamentals will look a lot like it did 10 years ago.

 

“He’s doing the exact same thing,” says Sooners assistant coach Emanuel Dildy, who worked on Moser’s Loyola Chicago staff when that program transitioned from the Horizon League to the Missouri Valley Conference.

There you have it. Oklahoma basketball, at its core, won’t deviate much at all from Kruger ball. Sound defense? Check. Precision offense? Check again.

But for the players responsible for making this vision come to life, the devil is in the details. The broader concepts may look like a replica of Kruger’s teachings, but the execution will require substantial repetition. No amount of Division I experience will help expedite the mastery of Moser’s rigorous defensive curriculum. The maniacal attention to detail. The encyclopedia of defensive terms and principles. This is the militant culture Moser intends to instill.

From a prognostication lens, herein lies the rub – at least, in the short term. Moser ushers in a refurbished roster for his inaugural campaign, one with a slew of new faces spanning a wide range of college experience.

Consider the secret sauce for both of Loyola’s inconceivable NCAA Tournament runs: the presence of multi-year Moser pupils. These were not just guys who had been around the block, but guys who had been around his block. To the untrained eye, OU may look and feel the same as old. But under the hood, there will be plenty of moving parts.

Umoja Gibson, Elijah Harkless and Jalen Hill are the bridge pieces from old to new regime, the only leftovers from Kruger’s tenure in Norman. They figure to slot right into the starting lineup immediately, each bringing a different gravy to the table: Gibson, the 3-point specialist. Harkless, the defensive menace. Hill, the mismatch maestro.

Like the newcomers, they’ll face the same steep learning curve in Moser’s rigorous defensive boot camp, but when the lightbulb flicks on, look out. Gibson, Harkless and Hill are all stout individual defenders to various degrees (Gibson, good; Hill, very good; Harkless, elite). Duke import Jordan Goldwire will only augment the defensive front, another dogged ball hawk who keyed the Blue Devils’ defense a year ago.

Offensively, it’s hard to ignore the blank space in the perimeter scoring department. Goldwire doesn’t pack the same punch as last year’s backcourt, Austin Reaves and DeVion Harmon, and Gibson isn’t wired as an assertive scorer, either. Before sounding the alarms, I’m cautiously optimistic this won’t be an Achilles’ heel. To start, Goldwire and Gibson have solidified themselves as efficient and reliable contributors in supporting roles, so Moser shouldn’t, and likely won’t, overload their plate with irrational expectations.

Moreover, look no further than Moser’s offensive blueprint last season at Loyola, which flourished without bonafide star power in the backcourt. The necessary cheat code is a Cam Krutwig type weapon who can orchestrate the offense from the inside-out and from the top of the key as a screener / passer.

This won’t be the first preview you see Tanner Groves-to-Cam Krutwig comparisons, but the similarities and skill sets are too obvious to ignore. Groves is far less advanced as a passer but he’s every bit as crafty in and around the paint. Groves’ basketball IQ is wise beyond his years, implying the passing instincts are there, just dormant. Moser clearly sees it, as told to SoonersWire after inking the former Eastern Washington mountain man:

"He can pass, he can function, he can take you inside but he can also take you outside. He can really shoot the three. I just think he is going to be a big help right away."

Bet on Moser unlocking this dimension of his offensive repertoire, which could open a world of opportunities for an offense lacking dynamic lead guards. Baby bro Jacob (Groves) also came along for the ride, but he’s a more slender, wingier version of Tanner.

Another remedy could be taking a page or two out of Kruger’s playbook, well regarded for his propensity to exploit mismatches. Hill and Harkless shined in these spots last season, and 6’6 swingman Marvin Johnson could follow suit. Justin Martinez, writer for the Oklahoman, stated this offseason that Johnson could find himself in the starting rotation by the time conference play rolls around. Disputing starting lineups is not my cup of tea but a wing laden unit with Harkless, Johnson and Hill could be a steel blanket defensively.

Up front, two new additions are oozing with upside.  Ethan Chargois will see plenty of run at the 4 and 5, a spry 6’9 forward who can step away and bury it from distance. Aussie native and top-10 JUCO product Akolda Mawein exceled at pretty much everything in his lone season at Navarro College, showcasing a legitimate triple threat scoring arsenal and jaw-dropping fluidity at 6’9 (he may actually see time on the wing as well):

Bottom Line: Don’t be fooled by the Tier 3 label. The Sooners are still a top-50 unit, and Moser could very well have another NCAA Tournament berth in his crosshairs by March. A daunting learning curve awaits this roster, which is the only viable reason to bet against OU out of the gate. But by conference play, Boomer Sooner may be banging on the door to Tier 2.

8. TCU

Key Returners: Mike Miles, Chuck O'Bannon, Francisco Farabello
Key Losses: Kevin Samuel, RJ Nembhard, PJ Fuller, Kevin Easley
Key Newcomers: Shahada Wells (UT Arlington), Maxwell Evans (Vanderbilt), Emanuel Miller (Texas A&M), Souleymane Doumbia (JUCO), Micah Peavy (Texas Tech), Xavier Cork (Western Carolina), JaKobe Coles (Butler), Damion Baugh (Memphis)
Lineup:

Outlook: 2018 feels like a century ago, doesn’t it? 

Since the Horned Frogs crashed the dance in emphatic fashion three years ago, Jamie Dixon’s been stuck in reverse in Fort Worth. Sure, the 2019 encore was a feisty follow-up effort, but since then, the Horned Frogs have been slipping back into a place they once, begrudgingly, called home: the Big-12 caboose. 

Dixon struck gold in his first recruiting cycle in 2017, headlined by the decorated Jaylen Fisher and Desmond Bane. More recently, he’s tried to emulate a similar formula, pairing the later wave of youthful talent (RJ Nembhard and PJ Fuller) with experienced producers off the transfer wire. But after two straight failed experiments, Dixon threw the baby out with the bath water.

Dixon went back to the drawing board this summer, initiating a gargantuan reclamation project that effectively turned Fort Worth into an Ellis Island for eager transfers. When all the dust settled, Dixon bagged eight newcomers from out of town to reinforce his troops for the Big-12 battlefield. More on them in a minute, but first, we introduce their second year general, Mike Miles. 

There’s no bigger breakout candidate in the Big-12 than Miles, the steadying engine behind the USA’s U19 gold medal run this summer. Coached by Dixon and paced by Miles, the Yanks finished a perfect 7-0 against some of the best youth talent on the global stage. Dixon employed a democratic minute allotment, but Miles still managed to tally 9.1 points, 3.9 assists, and 3.3 rebounds a game in just under 21 minutes a contest, fitting in famously alongside some of the nation’s most enticing young prospects:

That performance will serve as the launching pad for a second-year explosion. Miles will no longer have to share the sugar with former backcourt mate RJ Nembhard. Even with the cerebral, steady Francisco Farabello back in the mix, this will undoubtedly be Miles’ show.

Miles will have plenty of outlets to work with offensively, thanks to Dixon’s tireless effort in the portal this summer (sorry Mike, none of them are Chet Holmgren, though).

Dixon’s rotation could legitimately go 12-deep, as I haven’t the slightest idea on how the pecking order shakes out. The laundry list of new faces can be grouped into three semi-meaningful factions:

• Group 1) proven producers from mid-to-high major programs

  • Emmanuel Miller, Xavier Cork and JaKobe Coles

    • Coles gets a refreshing do-over after a torn meniscus ruined the burly, adaptable forward’s debut at Butler. Cork was hampered by a, well, hampered supporting cast at WCU, but I’m still riding shotgun to the Cork bandwagon, alongside captain Carlos Dotson. Miller, the cream of this crop, charts the same course as Cork. At Texas A&M, his near-dominance of SEC frontlines went largely unnoticed – he averaged 23 and 11 his last three games in March.

  • Maxwell Evans & Shahada Wells

    • Wells and Evans will be Miles’ perimeter cohorts – alongside the aforementioned Farabello – two prolific bucket getters who can drill it from anywhere (Wells more of a ‘scorer’, Evans more of a ‘shooter’).

• Group 2) high ceiling talents from premier programs

  • Damion Baugh & Micah Peavy

    • Baugh was championed as the under-the-radar star in Penny’s 2020 recruiting class at Memphis. It’s possible Baugh, or Texas Tech import / former heralded recruit Micah Peavy, could be a sleeping giant as well.

• Group 3) the other guy

  • Souleymane Doumbia

    • The freakishly long center from Navarrao College set the school record for blocks last year, earning him a top-5 overall spot in 247 JUCO’s player rankings. His imposing presence will make him a worthy warden of the rim, but he’ll be an asset on the offensive end as well. He runs the floor like a gazelle and displays sound footwork in and around the paint – don’t be shocked to see him wind up in the starting lineup right from day 1

As the pecking order sorts itself out late in the fall, two of these promising additions may find themselves buried while another one or two will separate himself from the pack. 

Don’t let Chuck O'Bannon get lost in the shuffle. O’Bannon was draino from deep AND lockdown on D last year. He was a full-time starter down the stretch in Big-12 play so his relegation to ‘B2’ on our roster depth chart is reflective of the ‘who the hell knows’ theme with this roster. 

One final note. Highly respected assistant Jamie McNeilly, a decade-plus mentee of Buzz Williams, will replace an open vacancy on the Horned Frogs bench this year. However, his nephew, Cashius, recently left the team, apparently, due to undisclosed reasons (if they were disclosed, I was not privy to those disclosures). McNeilly is the latest arrival to a renovated staff that looks unrecognizable to the group Dixon worked with his first two years.

Ok I lied, one more note. I’m obligated to mention TCU’s egregious, inexcusable, immoral, and inhumane ‘ethical conduct’ violations, resulting in a 3-year probation as handed down by the NCAA. Will this have a lasting impact? No. The Frogs will be juuuuust fine.

Bottom Line: In this brutal playground, the perennial powers leave little wiggle room for upward mobility. These bullies have kept TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State at bay for two straight seasons as the 8, 9 and 10th places finishers in back-to-back years. This likely isn’t the season TCU leapFROGs back into the upper half of the Big-12 standings but they’re the best bet of the bottom-3 to invade the Tier 2 party – the upside is real.

9. Kansas State

Key Returners: Nijel Pack, Mike McGuirl, Davion Bradford, Selton Miguel
Key Losses: Montavious Murphy
Key Newcomers: Mark Smith (Mizzou), Ismael Massoud (Wake Forest), Markquis Nowell (Little Rock) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Patience, Manhattan faithful – your time is coming… 

Not to sound like Sam Hinkie and the 76ers PR department but I urge you to ‘trust the process’.

K-State fans bloodthirsty for Weber’s head on a spike point to the lack of continuity as proof that he’s lost a grip on the program. For many, the last straw was Montavious Murphy’s sudden departure midway through summer, who was pegged to be in the thick of the rotation after an injury-riddled 2021 campaign. His exodus washed away the last remnant of Weber’s 2019 recruiting class. As pointed out by the Mercury, all five members of that class are now gone. DaJuan Gordon, David Sloan, Goodnews Kpegeol and forward Antonio Gordon have all transferred out of the program.

I’ve defended Weber vehemently before and I remain stubbornly committed to this rising sophomore class, the beacon of hope for Weber and the program at large. Another onslaught of injuries stunted their growth last season but there were signs of hope that the Purple Kittens are starting to turn the corner.

The front man of this burgeoning bunch is Nijel Pack, a silent assassin with a lightning quick release. Despite a devastating shooting slump in conference play, he still checked in with a 42% conversion rate from 3-point range on the year. That precision will command extra respect from on-ball defenders in 2022, which Pack can counter with explosive drives off the dribble.

As giddy as I am for Pack’s impending sophomore eruption, I’m less enthused with his new back up, Marquis Nowell, the enigma of all enigmas. As an insurance policy, Nowell’s perfect, but I fear Weber may feel compelled to allot Nowell serious playing time at the expense of others right away. Nowell is a dynamite scorer and highlight-reel playmaker, but his decision making, and commitment to team basketball, have never been his fortes. Ball security issues in the Sun Belt aren’t likely to be resolved against Big-12 caliber defenders.

Veteran mainstay Mike McGuirl returns as the rock in the backcourt. For Star Wars fans, think of McGuirl as the Qui Gon Jinn to Pack’s Obi Wan Kenobi. Collectively, this duo came together like peanut butter and jelly during the Wildcats stretch run last season. K-State accelerated through the finish line, winners in four of their last six contests, including a hyper competitive bout with Baylor in the Big-12 tournament (Pack actually missed the game against West Virginia on February 27th so call it 4-1 with both Pack and McGuirl in the lineup).

As Pack and McGuirl found their groove, so did the rest of the Wildcats. Weber discovered a deadly small ball lineup, which featured four guards orbiting around 7-footer Davion Bradford in the middle. Power guard Selton Miguel emerged as a driving force during the late spurt, while sophomore sniper Luke Kasubke gained valuable reps after starting the year on the training table.

The beauty with this 4-guard blueprint is that it didn’t require a significant sacrifice on defense. As a matter of fact, it strengthened the defense:

Full transparency: there was some favorable opposing shooting luck hidden in those splits, which buoyed K-State’s defensive metrics during that small sample six game stretch. But, even normalizing for that skew, the Wildcats would’ve still ranked inside the top-20 nationally over that six-game period.

Between the sturdy sophomore Miguel (6’4 210 pounds) and new Mizzou import Mark Smith (6’5 220 pounds), Weber boasts two stout defenders with chiseled frames, capable of sizing up defensively on the perimeter and on the interior, as needed. In essence, Weber can play small without really playing small.

The X-factor, though, could be Wake Forest transfer Ismael Massoud, who’s earned rave reviews from Weber this offseason: 

“He is really talented,” Weber said of Massoud during a recent interview with the Wichita Eagle. “He can shoot the basketball and he’s got length. He has been better than I even thought. He can do a lot more things, even post up a little bit. He has been a real nice addition to our group.”

Massoud will hope to hit the reset button in the WAKE of a highly inefficient second season *there*. Examining those trials and tribulations from a glass half-full lens projects Massoud’s struggles as a byproduct of his environment. Wake Forest’s offense was in complete disarray all year long, and Massoud was asked to do too much, too soon. Turn back the clock to his freshman campaign and you’ll find a far more efficient Massoud as a lower usage, ‘pick your spots’ type of scorer. That’s the sweet spot Massoud needs to settle into for K-State’s offense to click.

Bottom Line: It’s a heavy burden this scintillating group of second years must carry. The Manhattan natives are restless, eager for a replay of the 2018 and 2019 movies. There are parallels between this rebuild and the lead up to those glorious runs, which should induce unabashed optimism amongst K-State fans. Still, the young Wildcats remain a clear cut below the top-7 for the time being.

10. Iowa State

Key Returners: George Conditt IV, Tre Jackson, Xavier Foster
Key Losses: Rasir Bolton, Jalen Coleman-Lands, Javan Johnson, Soloman Young
Key Newcomers: Gabe Kalscheur (Minnesota), Izaiah Brockington (Penn St.), Blake Hinson (Ole Miss), Tristan Enaruna (Kansas), Aljaz Kunc (Washington St.), Caleb Grill (UNLV), Robert Jones (Denver)

Lineup:

Outlook: Welp…

Seriously, it was! During the honeymoon years, Steve Prohm delivered some memorable moments for Cyclone nation. But in Ames, 0-18 in the Big-12 just isn’t going to cut it.

To get back to the winner’s circle, the Clones are going back to their roots. In steps TJ Otzelberger, who, coincidentally, handed Iowa State the first of its 22 losses last year. ‘Otz’ is a captivating hire given his recent woes at UNLV but to the born and bred Cyclone fans, Otz is one of their own. On top of the two separate stints as an Iowa State assistant (from 2006-2013 and again from 2015-2016), Otz married into the cardinal red bloodline – his wife Alison was a Cyclone standout on the hardwood.

A new CEO means a new direction. So which way will Otzelberger pivot the program? Skeptics are quick to point out Otzelberger’s late flame out in the desert last year, and justifiably so, but rewind one more season to the 2020 campaign. Otz engineered a masterful mid-season turnaround, leading the Runnin Rebels to a 2nd place finish in the Mountain West standings in his first year at the helm.

The context made that about-face even more impressive. The roster he inherited, though talented, looked nothing like the teams he directed at South Dakota State. Roll with the changes, they say, so Otz did just that. He completely redesigned UNLV’s defensive philosophy, veering away from the shell-like defensive principles deployed at South Dakota State and decided to dial up pressure in hopes of optimizing that speed and athleticism. The results would shortly follow, as the Rebels checked in with the 4th best defense in the conference on an adjusted efficiency basis.

Otz isn’t a Chris Beard caliber defensive savant, but he knows that end of the floor can’t be ignored. Winning games in the 80s and 90s works in the Summit League’s offensive circus but it’s not a sustainable model in the ruthless Big-12. The overarching theme of Otz’s vision is to use defense as an offensive catalyst, and alleviate the burden of scoring in the half-court:

“We’re going to be a team that tries to keep the ball out of the paint, take charges, get deflections,” Otzelberger said in the Cyclone Fanatic. “But we utilize our defense as a way to create our offense. We believe we have a lot of guys that have a lot of different offensive talents, so we can certainly play to their strengths, but overall, we’re going to see a commitment to the defensive end of the floor and to rebounding the basketball going into transition.”

With Gabe Kalscheur (Minnesota) and Izaiah Brockington (Penn State), Otz brings in two starter caliber wings with the prerequisite tools to make this come to life. A full season in the Big Ten will add scales to any player, as it surely has for Kalscheur and Brockington, which makes them well equipped to usher in Otzelberger’s desired identity of toughness:

“I really like the group we assembled," Otzelberger said on Jon Rothstein’s podcast. "You gotta have depth, compete on the glass and a physical mentality to win in the Big 12. Gabe Kalscheur and Izaiah Brockington, those two guys have already proven that they can be production guys."

Competition up front will be fierce but Blake Hinson, an inverse forward with a nice inside-out game, should have the easiest path to the starting 5. If fully healthy, he could be a mismatch creator at the second forward spot. Denver transfer Robert Jones will join forces with incumbent big men George Conditt and Xavier Foster, while Washington State defector Aljaz Kunc will spell Hinson and the other wing / forward hybrids off the pine.

The diamond in the rough of this newcomer crop could be Kansas defector Tristan Enaruna. The back of Enaruna’s baseball card looks sparse but the former Jayhawk is primed to make his mark on the Big-12, already drawing comparisons to former Cyclone Abdel Nader, a jack-of-all-trades tweener forward capable of wearing many hats.

There’s a lot of names to digest but zoom out for a second. It’s clear that depth is an undisputed strength of this roster, even though the depth feels more ‘quantity over quality’. Depth matters, but as it stands now, the Clones appear to be missing a paradigm shifting talent – at least in final form…

Lauded freshman Tyrese Hunter could very well be that missing link. On the heels of Rasir Bolton’s departure, Hunter, a 4-star recruit and top 10-point guard prospect in America, will take the keys to the offense right away. Hailing from that familiar Wisconsin pipeline, Hunter is bound to draw unfair comparisons to another Wisconsin bred floor general named Tyrese: Tyrese Haliburton, that is. Haliburton’s unorthodox style is a unicorn by prototypical point guard standards, but Hunter can bring some of Hailburton’s arsenal to the table.

“To this point, [Hunter’s] been a dynamic play maker and his spirit infects our team,” coach Otz told the Gazette this summer.“He’s is a tremendous on-ball defender. He’s still a freshman that has a lot to work on but we’re really pleased with the start he’s gotten off to.”

Defensively, he’s a pest, a thief at the point of attack, and should blossom into a ball robber as he sharpens his instincts at the college level. On the other end, he’ll ignite an offense on the brink of shifting into overdrive, as Otzelberger alluded to shortly after being hired:

“Offensively we’re going to look to play up-tempo, we’re going to value the basketball, we're going to share the basketball, and we’re going to create great opportunities,” Otzelberger said.

As always, be sure to take “we’re going to play fast” coach speak with a grain of salt.

But, if Otz is true to his word, Hunter should flourish in a juiced-up tempo. He’s a blur with ball in his hands and can get his own shot whenever he wants with an oft-used shimmy-shake step back.

Bottom Line: Otzelberger served under ‘the Mayor’ (Fred Hoiberg) during the apex of Iowa State’s glory days – at least in the modern era – playing an integral part in recruiting and developing many fan favorites (Niang, Ejim, Hogue, Kane, Burton, to name a few). This homecoming feels like a storybook narrative under construction, but this novel will take time to write. This season could be another eyesore, but the Clones should be back in the hunt in a few years’ time.