-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Scottie James, Sr., Liberty
Coach of the Year: Ritchie McKay, Liberty
Newcomer of the Year: Diante Wood, R Fr., Jacksonville
Freshman of the Year: Diante Wood, Jacksonville

Tier 1

1. Liberty

Key Returners: Scottie James, Caleb Homesley, Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz, Elijah Cuffee, Darius McGhee, Myo Baxter-Bell
Key Losses: Lovell Cabbil, Keenan Gumbs
Key Newcomers: Shiloh Robinson, Blake Preston (redshirt), Kyle Rode, Marten Maide, Josh Price (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: After 29 wins (including a first-round victory over Mississippi State in the NCAA Tournament) and with four starters returning (along with Lipscomb’s mass exodus), Liberty enters 2019-20 as the clear ASUN favorite. Ritchie McKay has quickly gotten the program to take off in his second stint in Lynchburg, and the principles he took from his time on Tony Bennett’s staff at Virginia – with some tweaks – have the Flames in position to repeat last season’s successes.

The biggest of those tweaks are on the defensive end, where McKay has ventured away from the strict pack-line scheme, allowing his versatile roster to switch more and extend on the perimeter to take away threes. In 2018, the Flames’ opponents took 46.1% of their shots from beyond the arc, sixth-most in the entire country; last year, that dropped to 37.0%, which was on the lower end nationally. Versatile wings/forwards like Caleb Homesley, Elijah Cuffee, Keegan McDowell, and the surprisingly nimble-footed Myo Baxter-Bell give McKay flexibility with how he matches up defensively. Freshmen forwards Kyle Rode and Shiloh Robinson should only add to that depth.

Due to extending more on the perimeter, the rebounding wasn’t quite as elite as the past two years – Liberty was #2 natioonally in defensive rebound rate in 2017-18 – but it was still a team strength thanks to the efforts of burly center Scottie James (#22 D-Reb rate in the country) and the lanky Homesley. The Flames were also able to force more turnovers, with 5’9 sophomore Darius McGhee coming off the bench as an on-ball pest. More steals enabled the Flames to be a deadly (if judicious) transition team, scoring 1.14 points per possession to rank in the 92nd percentile.

Some easy baskets in the open floor boosted an already-superb half court offense. McKay runs a four-out motion offense designed to feature the deadly James in the post with shooters dotting the perimeter around him. Again, this is a tweaked version of Bennett’s “mover/blocker” motion, playing into the strengths of the Flame roster and letting players like James and Homesley attack individual mismatches. They’ll run simple yet smart action like this to clear out help defenders, and James is a master at pinning his defender:

The guards at the top lift high beyond the arc, and the weakside wing clears to the strong-side corner, opening up the lob to James, who earns a trip to the line. Baxter-Bell is a nightmare, too, with his bulk and ability to attack off the bounce. He even brought the ball up at times, with the guards running off him for dribble handoffs; he has the quickness and guile to fake these and turn the corner on unsuspecting bigs.

Having a plethora of shooters on the floor makes this action all the more deadly, putting help defenders in a bind on how far to sag off their man. The starting backcourt of Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz (45% from deep) and Cuffee (40%) exemplify this. Lovell Cabbil and his 43% shooting graduated, but McGhee has the potential to be a sniper, and although Homesley only hit 31% last year, defenses must respect his jumper (just ask Mississippi State, against whom he buried 5/11 from bonus land), and McDowell will punish defenses that ignore him. Rode, a freshman forward from Lexington, has a smooth stroke, as well, which will allow McKay to play two “bigs” while still playing four-out on offense.

Bottom Line: With a bevy of different weapons, both big and small, inside and out, the Flames’ offense should once again be force. The tweaks McKay made to the defense helped that side of the ball stabilize, as well. The Flames are the clear favorite in the ASUN, though I expect scheduling challenges (it’s not great) to limit their ability to challenge for an at-large bid.

Tier 2

2. North Florida

Key Returners: Wajid Aminu, Ivan Gandia-Rosa, Garrett Sams, JT Escobar, Carter Hendricksen, Trip Day
Key Losses: Noah Horchler (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Emmanuel Adedoyin, Dorian James (redshirt), Josh Endicott (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: In a classic instance of “record isn’t everything,” last year’s North Florida squad was a marked improvement over the previous two editions, despite managing only a 16-17 (9-7 in the ASUN) record. The Ospreys struggled with a murderers’ row of non-conference opponents (third-toughest NCSOS in the country, per KenPom.com), and they were ultimately doomed by a six-game losing streak in the middle of ASUN play. Still, the Ospreys showed some progress on defense after a nightmarish previous two years, and with nearly everyone back for another go-round (four guys will enter their third year as starters), North Florida will be flying high this season.

Matthew Driscoll’s defense is one of the most unique in the entire country. He runs what is ostensibly a 1-3-1, but that’s using an incredibly loose definition of that particular zone. The Ospreys extend way out beyond the three-point line, often letting three offensive players wander around behind four roving defenders, relying on Wajid Aminu’s athleticism and length to deter what might otherwise be easy looks at the rim. Nearly every possession ends up looking like this:

Think I’m kidding?

I may have gone waaaay too deep into a rabbit hole on the UNF zone - time well-spent, I say! It’s a really bizarre-looking alignment, but it was relatively successful last year, frustrating opposing shooters and teasing them into quick possessions – frequently resulting in inefficient mid-range jumpers. Aminu’s understanding of how to play with verticality was huge for keeping him out of foul trouble; after Noah Horchler was booted from the team, Aminu’s presence is even more crucial. JUCO transfer Jacob Endicott could be another option on the back line, as well: he has more size and some nice bounce. Based on the above screenshots, the Ospreys’ defensive rebounding is predictably awful , though, and persistent big men can have a field day inside. Along with Endicott, Carter Hendricksen and Ezekiel Balogun will be asked to help shore up the glass when on the floor.

Alright, even Driscoll would probably reprimand me for spending this much time on UNF’s defense. His tenure is far more defined by the bombs-away offensive attack, with the Ospreys earning the outstanding nickname “Birds of Trey.” They’ve consistently ranked near the top of the country in 3PA rate for seven years running now, and with 272 made triples returning to the roster, the bombardment is sure to continue.

Ivan Gandia-Rosa is the maestro, a deft passer and a 37% shooter himself; Driscoll has him push the tempo whenever possible, striking quickly against unprepared defenses. He’ll be flanked by JT Escobar (39.8% from deep for his career) and 6’7 Garrett Sams (37.7%), both of whom can get hot in a jiffy. The benefit of the spread-out defense I mentioned is that the guards are already in position to get out in transition, and Escobar and Sams (and reserve guard Ryan Burkhardt) are trained to bolt straight to the three-point line.

Having such potent perimeter shooting on the floor also helps open up the interior, which helps explain why Aminu (57%), Day (54%), and Balogun (56%) were all so efficient inside the arc. Gandia-Rosa, Sams, and the bigs need to take better care of the ball, though, because sloppy possessions have been a plague for this group. Incoming floor general Emmanuel Adedoyin is probably the future of the PG position, but a freshman lead guard isn’t exactly the cure for turnover woes.

Bottom Line: Horchler, who committed to Providence in the offseason, is a big loss as the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, but with the rest of the Birds of Trey back to hunt, UNF should be right near the top of the ASUN (though not quite in the Liberty stratosphere). Many of the shooters had sub-par seasons by their own lofty standards, and if they catch fire this year, the Ospreys will be a nightmare to play against thanks to their funky style on both ends.

3. Lipscomb

Key Returners: Ahsan Abdullah, Michael Buckland, Andrew Fleming
Key Losses: Garrison Mathews, Rob Marberry, Eli Pepper, Kenny Cooper (transfer), Nathan Moran, Matt Rose
Key Newcomers: Parker Hazen (JUCO), Miles Miller (Mississippi), KJ Johnson, Kaleb Coleman, Jaxson Strates (redshirt), Jacob Hobbs, Luke Howard

Lineup:

Outlook: After conducting the best two-season run in Lipscomb’s 18-year Division I history, Belmont graduate Casey Alexander made the two-mile trip north to replace his old boss and mentor, Rick Byrd. That signals a new start for “Belmont South” (sorry Lipscomb fans – I just mean stylistically!), where Alexander had brought Byrd’s system and found tremendous success. The Bisons reached into the Division 2 ranks for their next head coach, tabbing Alabama-Huntsville’s Lennie Acuff to continue Alexander’s success. Acuff is widely respected in coaching circles, a sharp mind who led Huntsville to eight seasons of 23+ wins in the last ten years, qualifying for the D2 NCAA Tournament in each of those eight years.

Unfortunately for Acuff, the Bisons’ senior-laden roster was gutted by graduations, and starting point guard Kenny Cooper added to that exodus when he transferred to Western Kentucky. That leaves low-usage spot up shooter Michael Buckland as the lone returning starter, but a promising sophomore class and some intriguing newcomers will allow Acuff to implement his system upon a relatively new nucleus.

The most noticeable change will be the screeching halt of Acuff slamming on the brakes. Alexander (and, by extension, Byrd) consistently played at one of the fastest tempos in the country, while Alabama-Huntsville was a very methodical outfit:

Plus, Acuff’s primary ball-handlers, sophomore Alex Jones (not that Alex Jones) and redshirt freshman Miles Miller lack experience, yet another reason to maintain a more structured, deliberate approach.

Not to be confusing, but Acuff calls his system “Space + Pace.” We just saw that the “pace” part is a little overblown when it comes to tempo, so it makes sense that it’s listed second – the pace is more about the players’ decision-making and keeping defenses moving. He gives a lot of freedom to his PGs early in the possession, so Jones and Miller will be pivotal. Miller was set to attend Navy in 2018-19 but suffered a gunshot wound to his leg late in his high school career; instead, he walked on at Mississippi and developed under Kermit Davis during a redshirt year. Now, he’ll challenge Jones, a 5’10 jitterbug, for minutes – and will likely play alongside him quite a bit, too. Acuff loves to have multiple creators on the court at the same time to put added pressure on the defense.

That means that at times, Miller will join Buckland, veterans Andrew Fleming and Jake Wolfe, and incoming freshman KJ Johnson on the wing. The returners were mostly utilized as complementary shooters last year, with each bringing some size on the defensive end, as well. Miller and Johnson are dynamic scorers, though; Johnson racked up 35ppg as a senior in high school. Oh, and the lethal lefty hasn’t cut his hair since his sophomore year of high school, which means he’s rocking a tremendous head of lettuce:

Those shooters and scorers will spread the floor around a post player (similar to Alexander’s system, actually), and rising sophomore Ahsan Abdullah could be a breakout star after spending the year as Rob Marberry’s understudy last year. The 265-pounder runs well for his size, and he’s tremendous at using his body to create space and draw contact inside. Redshirt freshman Jaxson Strates should be his backup, a well-regarded big man who missed last year with an injury. At the other forward spot, Parker Hazen, a JUCO transfer whose career began at Valpo, is a versatile option, although freshmen Kaleb Coleman, a 3-star recruit via ESPN who hails from Florida power Oak Ridge, and Luke Howard, a Canadian who can shoot from distance, will push for immediate minutes, too.

Defensively, Acuff keeps things relatively simple, though he will mix up defenses between man and zone, particularly out of timeouts. He mostly wants to keep foes off balance – and get the ball back in the hands of his hyper-efficient offense.   

Bottom Line: Lipscomb loses a ton from its best team ever, including the coach who orchestrated it all and the league Player of the Year, but while some regression is certain to result, I’m pretty sold on Acuff as a basketball mind. This year’s team will be young and may take some lumps early, but they’ll get better as the year progresses, eventually making a competitive push in ASUN play.

4. NJIT

Key Returners: Zach Cooks, Shyquan Gibbs, San Antonio Brinson, Reilly Walsh (injury)
Key Losses: Abdul Lewis, Diandre Wilson, Shawndale Jones (transfer), Mohamed Bendary
Key Newcomers: Caleb Matthews, Levar Williams, Da’mir Faison, Xavier Mayo, Tre Breland III, Jason Murphy

Lineup:

Outlook: After a successful 18-5 (6-2) start to the season, NJIT became the New Jersey Institute of Tough-luck losses, dropping games by margins of 1, 2, 1, 4, and 6 in a 5-week span (and yes, technically that would actually make them NJITLL – my preview, my rules). That promising first three months gave way a 2-6 end to the ASUN season, thwarting coach Brian Kennedy’s efforts to secure his first over-.500 record in league play. Still, the Highlanders set a program record for wins in a season at the Division I level, and with a bona fide star back in guard Zach Cooks plus Kennedy’s smart defensive schemes, cautious optimism remains in Newark.

The Highlanders’ defense carried them last year, a unit that trailed only Lipscomb and Liberty in conference play, both of whom were in a different stratosphere than the rest of the ASUN in 2019. A huge part of that defense was limiting opponents to one shot, often thanks to 6’10 center Abdul Lewis. He missed both of NJIT’s games in the CIT to close the year, though, allowing rising sophomores Souleymane Diakite and Kjell de Graaf to get their feet wet in that role. He looks like a strong successor to Lewis (on the defensive end, at least – we’ll get to the offense in a jiffy), and he and San Antonio Brinson should form a stout, athletic duo in the paint. A couple of high-upside freshmen in Da’mir Faison and Xavier Mayo join the fray to provide depth; Mayo may even push for an immediate starting role after backing up Isaiah Stewart (Washington) and Gerald Drumgoole (Pitt) for Albany City Rocks on the AAU circuit.

Outside the paint, Cooks has proven to be a pest on the ball, tallying the 34th-highest steal rate in the country while using his slight 5’9 frame to get underneath opposing ball-handlers. The Highlanders were not turnover-reliant on defense as a whole, though, which was surprising after Kennedy had extended quite a bit two seasons ago. Instead, he opted for a sound man-to-man scheme that avoided gambling and kept his team in rebounding position. One has to wonder if the return of Reilly Walsh, who missed nearly all of ’18-19 with injury, will spur Kennedy to be more aggressive on the perimeter; Walsh and Shyquan Gibbs were a menacing pair the last time they played together on the wing.

I hinted at Diakite’s lack of impact on the offensive end earlier, and it’s true – he’s largely a “catch-and-dunk” guy, as we like to call them, at this point, and he certainly is nowhere near the threat that Lewis was. Lewis’s inefficient finishing and propensity for clogging the lane while demanding a post-up sometimes hurt the offense, though, and the on/off numbers tell a tough story, especially on offense:

More minutes for Brinson and Diakite won’t solve those specific issues, but de Graaf, the smooth-shooting 6’10 Dutchman, might. His three triples at Lipscomb in late February helped the Highlanders nearly steal a huge road win, and the floor spacing he provides will make corralling the prolific Cooks an even greater challenge. His on/off impact displayed this – contrasted with the more physical, defensive-minded Brinson and Diakite:

Cooks deserves more mention before I wrap this baby up. He played nearly every minute last season and racked up 20+ points 15 different times, culminating in a 34-point explosion against Quinnipiac in the first round of the CIT. Fatigue and size concerns really hurt him against better competition, though, and I’d expect the Highlanders to correspondingly struggle this year with non-conference road games against Providence, Rutgers, and UConn.

Bottom Line: Kennedy will need to find more scoring outside of Cooks to sustain a top 3 or 4 finish in the league, so expect freshman wings Caleb Matthews and Tre Breland III to push Walsh and Gibbs for playing time. NJIT may still struggle a bit offensively, but if the defense can maintain its upper-tier level, NJIT should fit comfortably into the middle of the ASUN standings.

Tier 3

5. North Alabama

Key Returners: Christian Agnew, Jamari Blackmon, Emanuel Littles, Payton Youngblood, Tavon King
Key Losses: Kendarius Smith, Kendall Stafford
Key Newcomers: Holden Redparth (JUCO), Abdul Ahmad, C.J. Brim (JUCO), Mervin James, James Anderson II (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: One of two newcomers to Division I last season, the Lions entered like lambs, going 0-13 in their first 13 games against D1 competition (though they did snag three wins against non-D1 opponents). To be fair, they did play an incredibly difficult schedule, and competitive efforts at Pitt, Saint Louis, and UNC Greensboro indicated that UNA was not completely in over its head.  

The Lions first tasted success on January 8th, knocking off FGCU at home, and clawed their way to a respectable 7-9 in the Atlantic Sun, breeding some optimism for the continued transition. Head coach Tony Pujol, a former Anthony Grant assistant at both VCU and Alabama, enters his second year guiding the program through its leap to D1, and he is already well-respected in coaching circles.  

In charge of a small, inexperienced roster, Pujol smartly played through his skilled guards. Rising sophomores Christian Agnew and Jamari Blackmon led the team in usage, and although Kendarius Smith and Kendall Stafford graduated, Pujol will continue to spread the floor for pick-and-roll action. PnR ball-handlers finished 21% of North Alabama’s possessions last year, the 5th-highest rate in the country per Synergy, and with Agnew, Blackmon, and Tavon King all back, plus incoming JUCO guard C.J. Brim, the barrage will continue.

UNA struggled to space the floor around this action, though. Ranking a dismal 342nd in 3P%, this constricted the court and often forced Agnew and Blackmon to pull up for unfavorable midrange jumpers. Pujol will hope that JUCO additions Holden Redparth and James Anderson II can change that, as both shot over 42% on high volume at their previous stops. Redparth alone connected on 111 triples, and at 6’5, both he and Anderson II will add some much-needed size on the wing. The return of Payton Youngblood from a season-ending injury will also be a boost. Another 6’5 wing, Youngblood started the first four games of the year and looked to be an immediate contributor after coming over from junior college himself.

Speaking of size – the Lions ranked 352nd in KenPom’s “average height” statistic, often playing three 6’0-and-under guards with a 6’4 power forward. Unsurprisingly, they struggled with interior defense, despite Emanuel Littles thoroughly dominating the glass on both ends of the court. Logan Windeler, a 6’9 sophomore, has some size, but he never found any kind of offensive confidence, and freshman Mervin James is similar to Littles as a 6’7 post who can play multiple positions. Californian freshman Abdul Ahmad is primed to be the Lions new rim protector, a long, bouncy big man with a 7’2 wingspan who will add an element that UNA simply didn’t have last year.

The Lions’ strength on defense was on the glass, where Littles and the departed Stafford cleaned up and prevented second shot opportunities. Pujol also turned up the pressure in ASUN play, allowing the Lions to lead the league in steal rate, and with Agnew and Blackmon back, Pujol should continue to extend with the hope of getting some easy points off turnovers while allowing Ahmad to clean up any messes at the rim.  

Bottom Line: North Alabama clearly improved over the course of last year as the young players became more familiar with Division I play, and with more experience and added size, they will remain competitive in the ASUN. If Agnew and Blackmon can sort out their bricky perimeter jumpers (28% and 29%, respectively), the offensive ceiling also raises, further allowing Pujol’s spread PnR system to operate in space. I’m hesitant to project too much of a jump with Smith and Stafford gone, but finishing comfortably in the middle of the standings again seems extremely reasonable.

6. Florida Gulf Coast

Key Returners: Zach Scott, Christian Carlyle, Caleb Catto, Brian Thomas
Key Losses: Shadrac Casimir, Dinero Mercurius, Troy Baxter (transfer), RaySean Scott
Key Newcomers: Jalen Warren (JUCO), Malik Hardy (D2), Sam Gagliardi (JUCO), Justus Rainwater (JUCO), Dakota Rivers, Qwanzi Samuels, Jalen Harper

Lineup:

Outlook: Following Joe Dooley’s departure to re-take the East Carolina head coaching job, FGCU promoted assistant Michael Fly, who had worked under both Dooley and Andy Enfield in Fort Myers. Fly shifted the team’s approach fairly drastically on both ends, and for a while, the system rejected these changes like a bad organ transplant. The Eagles bottomed out after a 21-point loss at North Florida in mid-January, having dropped to 264th in KenPom’s rankings and forcing us to completely crater the Eagles’ power rating after a seven-year run of consistency under Dooley and Enfield. Things stabilized in league play, finishing 9-7 after an 0-3 start, but FGCU still finished with its first sub-20-win season since 2012.

After Dooley had turned transformed Dunk City into a “Mini UNC” with a constant onslaught at the rim (nickname credit: @jorcubsdan), Fly went to much more of a perimeter-oriented offense that I will hereby title “Let it FLY.” That worked out just fine for Shadrac Casimir (48% from deep!) and Dinero Mercurius, but forwards like Troy Baxter, RaySean Scott, and Brady Ernst struggled to find their roles, and all three ended up transferring. Only Zach Scott returns as a proven outside shooter, though Caleb Catto could blossom as a sophomore. Fly brought in reinforcements in JUCO transfer Sam Gagliardi, a gunner who hit almost 100 threes at Citrus College last year, and Division 2 transfer Malik Hardy, who hit over 43% of his treys en route to scoring 17ppg as a freshman.

Having those shooters will allow Fly to attack driving lanes via his preferred spread pick-and-roll system. FGCU ranked near the bottom of the country in post-ups, isolation, and off-ball screens last year, instead putting the ball in the hands of Casimir, Decardo Day, and Christian Carlyle to attack off the bounce. Another JUCO transfer, Jalen Warren, likely takes the lead ball-handler reins, a skilled passer who led Eastern Florida State to the NJCAA Elite Eight last year. If he doesn’t work out, another Jalen could step in at point - Jalen Harper, younger brother of Auburn Final Four PG Jared. FAMU grad transfer Tracy Hector is another big, versatile slasher, but like Carlyle, he’s not an outside shooter.

Fly heavily de-emphasized offensive rebounding last season, meaning the additions of JUCO transfer Justus Rainwater and freshmen Qwanzi Samuels and Dakota Rivers are more for depth and defensive purposes. Fly’s offense likely dictates that Carlyle or Hector starts as the nominal four man, and the center spot should be manned by Brian Thomas, a human eraser at the rim who led the ASUN in block rate. The Eagles’ rise coincided almost exactly with Thomas’s ascension into the starting lineup, and his defensive impact was clear: with him, FGCU allowed just 0.97 points per possession, compared to 1.07 without him (per Hoop Lens).

The Eagles also went far more zone-heavy with Fly at the helm, going from zoning 11% of the time to 41%, the 34th-highest frequency in the country (per Synergy):

Predictably, FGCU’s three-point defense and defensive rebounding both crumbled. The zone was not an overly aggressive one, and only Thomas’s shot-swatting inside prevented the underbelly from being soft, as well.

Bottom Line: In a rarity for programs that go the internal promotion route, the Eagles underwent a major “shock to the system” with Fly taking over the reins. He is slowly transforming the roster to fit his image, but it’s not quite there yet, and the Eagles remain inexperienced, particularly in the backcourt. I don’t think they’ll start as slowly as last year, but a similar finish within the league (middle tier) feels right.

Tier 4

7. Jacksonville

Key Returners: Dave Bell, Aamahne Santos, Tyreese Davis, DeAnthony McCallum
Key Losses: JD Notae (transfer), Jace Hogan, Jalyn Hinton (transfer), Tanner Rubio (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Diante Wood (Alabama), Kevin Norman (JUCO), Destin Barnes (JUCO), Mo Arnold, Trey Sides

Lineup:

Outlook: Jacksonville was the “good bad team” in the ASUN last year, sweeping both Kennesaw State and Stetson but unable to punch up in the standings other than a surprising road victory against River City Rumble rival North Florida. The offseason brought several ins and outs to the roster, but the Dolphins appear to be destined for a similar fate in Tony Jasick’s sixth season at the helm. On the bright side, Jasick gets the golden opportunity to build the only competent “Dolphins” sports team in Florida this year (apologies to all other JU athletics teams – just laugh at the Miami Dolphins with me). Fun!

Following the departures of both JD Notae (transfer) and Jace Hogan (graduation), the question of “who is going to score here?” became a valid one. Tyreese Davis averaged double-figures as a freshman, but his game is more suited to being a complementary piece. Seniors Dave Bell and DeAnthony McCallum are solid options: big boy Bell has plenty of pedigree after starting his career at Ohio State and was already one of the conference’s best rebounders and interior defenders last year, and McCallum averaged 12.4ppg over the season’s final eight games while earning a larger role in the rotation. Still, neither guy is a proven scorer over a full year, and Jasick smartly brought in external reinforcements.

Diante Wood, a top 100 recruit in the 2018 class who redshirted at Alabama last year, is eligible immediately and should be a devastating scorer following the move to the ASUN. He’s an explosive driver with a burgeoning perimeter jumper, and he’ll pair with JUCO wing Kevin Norman to form an intimidating wing duo. Norman is actually quite similar to Wood, and he averaged nearly 20ppg last year at Angelina College.

Wood can probably handle some ball-handling duties, but Aamahne Santos is also an intelligent ball mover; the senior guard started nearly every game last year and shot 40% from deep in conference play. Freshmen Trey Sides and Mo Arnold aren’t pure point guards, either, but Tyreese Davis is a savvy passer who can orchestrate the offense at times.

Guard play will be especially important if Jasick maintains last year’s tempo, which rose into the upper echelon of the country (42nd fastest, 2nd in the conference). He wants to allow them to attack downhill, and with a dearth of high-volume outside shooters, that approach makes sense. Bell and backup center Bryce Workman are mobile for their size, and Davis and JUCO transfer Destin Barnes form an athletic duo that’s likely to occupy most of the nominal power forward minutes.

Bell’s presence should be the cornerstone on the defensive end, as well. For the first time last year, Jasick had his guards focus on running shooters off the three-point line, encouraging them to drive and try to finish over Bell (and departed forward Jalyn Hinton). Part of that switch was also due to playing the highest percentage of man-to-man thus far in Jasick’s tenure; having a shot-blocker in Bell, plus more athleticism around him, makes that much more viable.

Bottom Line: The additions of Wood and Norman should help offset the losses of Notae and Hogan, but it’s hard to see the Dolphins leaping up the standings this year. They still appear to be a cut above Kennesaw and Stetson, likely ending up in a battle with FGCU and North Alabama (which, coincidentally, is where Jasick’s coaching career began in 2002) in the middle of the ASUN.

8. Kennesaw St.

Key Returners: Tyler Hooker, Danny Lewis, Bryson Lockley, Antonio Spencer, Ugo Obineke
Key Losses: Kyle Clarke, Bobby Parker (transfer), Isaac Mbuyamba, Kosta Jankovic
Key Newcomers: Terrell Burden, Armani Harris, Glenn Robinson II (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Al Skinner’s “coast into retirement” gig ended before the season did, with the veteran coach announcing his resignation on February 21st (effective at the end of the year). Kennesaw State exhibited a clear downward trajectory over his last two seasons, and it was time for both parties to move on. Enter Amir Abdur-Rahim, a longtime Billy Kennedy assistant at Texas A&M and Murray State, widely hailed as an ace recruiter, especially in the state of Georgia (he spent this past season as Tom Crean’s lead recruiter at UGA).

Abdur-Rahim’s first and most pressing issue will be rescuing a floundering offense from the darkness of the stone age. Skinner had some terrific years at Boston College, but he will never be mistaken for an offensive innovator; his complete disregard for the wisdom of basketball analytics was almost admirable in its absolute defiance. Kennesaw ranked last in the entire country in 3PA rate last year, attempting only 22.6% of its field goals from beyond the arc, which was a full 4.6% lower than the 352nd-ranked team. Instead, Skinner’s flex offense took a staggering 50% of its shots – that’s half of them – from the inefficient midrange area, the highest such rate in the country by a colossal margin, per Hoop-Math. That’s how you end up with an offensive profile in Synergy that looks this bleak:

The Owls do have a few intriguing pieces with whom Abdur-Rahim can bring the offense into the 21st century, though. Lead guard Tyler Hooker is a prolific scorer and capable creator for others, while rising sophomore Danny Lewis flashed a perimeter shooting stroke on the limited attempts he was able to hoist up before being harshly reprimanded by Skinner. His younger brother, Jamie Lewis, started his career at Wake Forest and will add more scoring punch when eligible in December. Bryson Lockley is an active paint presence on the glass, though shooting 34% from two-point range while standing 6’8, 218 pounds is an impressive feat in its futility. All three returning starters will benefit from a more prudent shot distribution, hopefully resulting in increased efficiency.

Due to Abdur-Rahim’s constant proximity to Kennedy (nine years on his staff, played for him at Southeastern Louisiana), it stands to reason he’ll look to play similarly. Despite his ignominious end in College Station, Kennedy was (and still is) a solid coach, showing flexibility in his approach on both ends to tailor it to his roster. The most consistent trends, year over year, were on the defensive end, where he stresses defending the paint and not allowing easy drives to the rim. The Owls will mix in man and zone, both of which will often concede open perimeter jumpers in favor of controlling the paint. Rising sophomore Antonio Spencer could be a “Tyler Davis Lite” in the ASUN; the 6’9 center is a solid rebounder and shot-blocker, though his offensive game is incredibly raw.

Speaking of raw, the rest of the rotation minutes will be taken by inexperienced freshman and sophomores. Ugo Obineke saw the most minutes of that group last year, and Abdur-Rahim will surely want to see what he has in freshmen Terrell Burden, a potential successor for Hooker at PG, and Armani Harris, a versatile 6’6 wing. JUCO transfer Glenn Robinson II, the team’s only upperclassman aside from Hooker and Locksley, probably leaps the little-used sophomore trio for minutes, as well.  

Bottom Line: Undoing the terrible offensive habits instilled by Skinner’s regime will be a process, but Abdur-Rahim’s recruiting prowess is already showing itself: he’s secured three in-state prospects in the 2020 class, including two top 200 overall prospects. This year will be a transitionary period, but the future looks bright with Abdur-Rahim gobbling up talent.

9. Stetson

Key Returners: Christiaan Jones, Kenny Aninye, Jahlil Rawley
Key Losses: Abayomi Iyiola (transfer), Marques Sumner (transfer), Leo Goodman, Keith Matthews (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Chance McSpadden (UCF), Joel Kabimba, Cyriaque Foucart, Mahamadou Diawara, Terry Ivery, Rob Perry, Jaret Griffith, Wheza Panzo

Lineup:

Outlook: Following another brutal year in DeLand, Florida (that’s where Stetson is!), the Hatters cut ties with Corey Williams, who had amassed a dismal 58-133 record at the school, including 22-68 in league play (24.4%, woof). To replace him, Stetson summoned Donnie Jones back to Florida, where he had spent six seasons in charge of UCF. His experience and past performance should at least make him an upgrade, and his downturn in Orlando synced up directly with the school’s move from Conference USA to the more competitive American Athletic:

Jones faces a difficult undertaking with the Hatters, looking to build a program that hasn’t posted a winning record overall since 2001, when the ASUNwas still known as the “Trans-Atlantic Athletic Conference” - no, I don’t remember that title, either. He’ll build around a trio of guards that started a combined 54 games last year, but the Hatters will also look to a six-man freshman class to lay the foundation for future progress.

At UCF, Jones ran a great deal of zone (48% in his final campaign), and with so many newcomers (and veterans learning a new system), I’d expect to see him employ something similar. He also played slowly in his first two years at both UCF and Marshall (where he coached from 2007-2010), hoping to limit possessions to minimize the talent gap and allow him to get his players in place.

Oh, and speaking of UCF – Jones secured a commitment from UCF grad transfer guard Chance McSpadden, who could be a major impact player right away. He actually played for Jones as a freshman in 2015-16, starting seven games and looking like a real piece for the Knights. It never panned out for him under Johnny Dawkins, though, and he should find some success re-connecting with his old coach just 45 minutes up the road.

The prize of the freshman class is Joel Kabimba, a lanky 6’9 forward who should make an impact on the glass right away. He also has a fluid shooting motion, which would be a boon for the Hatters considering the utter lack of shooting prowess that the veteran guards possess. Christiaan Jones, Jahlil Rawley, and Kenny Aninye combined to go 59/202 (29.2%) from deep, with only Jones showing any kind of upside from range. That means the rest of the incoming class will have a route to minutes, and little used sophomore Jalen Crutchfield could earn a larger role. One of those recruits, Rob Perry, played alongside North Florida guard Emmanuel Adedoyin (among many other D1 players) at Orlando powerhouse Oak Ridge HS, and he dropped 32 points in a state championship victory. Jaret Griffith or Wheza Panzo may also secure early run thanks to their shooting strokes.

Rawley and Aninye are more of a bricky platoon at point guard, and Jones may be tempted to hand the keys to 5’9 freshman Terry Ivery at some point. He was the less heralded member of a high school backcourt that featured 5-star recruit Tre Mann (Florida Gators), but he’s quick floor general who is likely the future of the position at Stetson.  

If all else fails, Jones will just send his guys to the offensive glass, where Kabimba, senior Ricky Gouety, JUCO transfer Cyriaque Foucart, and Mali native Mahamadou Diawara will all need to contribute quickly. Diawara oozes potential – he was ranked as a top 200 player by 247sports – and his size will be a problem in the ASUN.

Bottom Line: Jones has talked a fairly big game about being able to turn the team around in Year One, but I’m bearish on the possibility. Still, his investment in a large freshman class bodes well for the future, and he’s always been a strong recruiter. He’s had some run-ins with the NCAA in the past over his practices in that department, but if he can continue to tap into his contacts around the state, the Hatters should eventually get off the mat in the ASUN.