-Jim Root

Key Returners: Devo Davis, Jaylin Williams, J.D. Notae, Connor Vanover, KK Robinson (injury)
Key Losses: Justin Smith, Moses Moody (pro), Jalen Tate, Vance Jackson, Desi Sills (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Chris Lykes (Miami FL), Stanley Umude (South Dakota), Au’Diese Toney (Pitt), Trey Wade (Wichita St.), Kamani Johnson (Little Rock), Chance Moore, Jaxson Robinson (Texas A&M)

Lineup:

Outlook: In one of the most dominant NCAA Tournament runs in recent history, only one opponent managed to keep Baylor within single digits: the Arkansas Razorbacks, who trailed 64-60 with seven minutes remaining before ultimately losing by nine. Considering Baylor won its two Final Four games by a combined 35 points, that’s significant! Arkansas’ ultra-versatile lineup with four or five creators on the court at all times put some stress on the Bears’ nearly impenetrable defense, and if the 3P shooting splits had been different (27.3% for Arkansas, 53.3% for Baylor), then we could have had a completely different tournament.

The Razorbacks lose several vital pieces from that lethal lineup, most notably lottery pick Moses Moody and mega-versatile defender Justin Smith, but Muss has continued to dominate on the player acquisition market. This year’s crop is geared more towards transfers, but his freshman recruiting has also been stellar of late, and despite the presence of talented portal imports, two true sophomores may actually be the keys to the season.

Devo Davis was one of last year’s biggest surprises, the lowest rated freshman of Musselman’s outstanding four-man class who saw minimal minutes over the season’s opening month. By the time February rolled around, though, his devastating on-ball defense and athletic slashing made him a permanent fixture in the starting lineup. He could blossom into a star this year after tallying 11 or more points in six of the Razorbacks’ final seven games.

His classmate in the paint, Jaylin Williams, was more up-and-down as a rookie. He played through a painful knee injury in late January, and just as he was starting to emerge into a nightly threat in late February, he missed four games to COVID protocol. He wasn’t quite the same player in the NCAA Tournament, despite strong performances against Texas Tech and Baylor. His size and skill combination was easy to identify via eye test though, and he has the mobility to maintain Arkansas’ two-way versatility while actually giving Musselman a true big man inside.

Both sophomores will be unleashed in Musselman’s spread attack that emphasizes getting downhill off the bounce and forcing opponents to guard all five players as legitimate threats. Within that scheme, Muss smartly got more off-ball movement last year, going away from his isolation-heavy offenses of the past couple of seasons:

Moving away from isolation further weaponized the Razorbacks’ balance, as foes could not focus on stopping only one or two prolific scorers. That democratic approach should continue this year, especially given the return of Mr. Microwave himself, JD Notae, off the bench, and the addition of several skilled bucket-getters. Notae actually led the team in usage and was often the team’s go-to guy late in games, though he did fade a bit towards the end of the year after scoring 12+ points in 12 of the team’s first 13 contests (his decline roughly correlated with Davis’ rise).

After dealing with injury for nearly all of last year, Chris Lykes could be devastating in Muss’ system. He’s only 5’7, but he’s eternally in turbo mode, and staying in front of him one-on-one is nearly impossible. The thought of him coming off handoffs with a head of steam should terrify opponents:

It’s worth reiterating: he is lightning quick, almost like he’s not subject to the same laws of stop-and-start physics as the rest of us. The height limits his finishing at the rim, but he compensates for that by being an elite mid-range jump shooter (47.3% in 2019-20, per Hoop-Math).

South Dakota transfer Stanley Umude likely fills the Moody role, a similarly-sized wing who was one of the country’s truly elite scorers last year. After his running mate, AJ Plitzuweit, got hurt during the stretch run, Umude averaged 28.7 PPG in the Coyotes’ final three contests, and he’s a true three-level scorer that should see his efficiency rise while playing a smaller role on a more talented roster (6th in the country in usage last year). Pitt transfer Au’Diese Toney has a solid inside-out game of his own, adding another piece for defenses to have to worry about, and fellow wing/forwards Trey Wade, Chance Moore, and Kamani Johnson also should find the rotation (unless Muss cuts it short, which he frequently does). Those three will not be impactful as scorers in the same way, however.

This squad also has two X-factors that could change the trajectory of the team: point guard Khalen “KK” Robinson, another speedster who was highly touted out of Oak Hill Academy before injuries derailed his season last year, and Connor Vanover, a spindly 7’3 beanstalk who might actually be the Razorbacks’ best perimeter shooter. Robinson oozes potential with his ability to get into the paint and his dynamite vision, while Vanover needs to rediscover his role after getting nailed to the bench late last season.  

Vanover fell out of favor primarily because he did not fit the defense’s profile as a position-less menace. He made an impact as an elite shot-swatter during non-conference play, but as the Razorbacks got into the thick of the SEC season, they were markedly better with the emerging Williams at the 5 or simply going small with Justin Smith as the nominal center. Per Hoop-Explorer, against top 50 teams, Arkansas had an adjusted net rating of just +0.9 and a defensive rating of 105.7 with Vanover on the court; without him, those numbers improved exponentially to +20.0 and 88.5. That’s a lot of numbers to throw at you in one sentence, but basically it says this: against good teams, Arkansas was WAAAAAY better on defense with Vanover wearing his warmups.

Williams’ emergence was a big part of that, but even more important was Smith’s remarkable versatility. His impact was felt on both ends, and the on/off numbers emphatically back that up:

Musselman took multiple bites at the apple in trying to replace him with Wade and Johnson (and, to a lesser extent, Toney, who is really more of a wing). Neither guy is near Smith’s level of two-way effectiveness, though, so Arkansas’ defense may have to be a little more conventional as a result. Furthermore, Lykes is decidedly not switchable at his size. He will battle, and his quickness allows him to get steals, but Arkansas cannot defend the same way when he’s on the court.

As a result, the Razorbacks likely will not be a top 10 defense again, but with so much depth and length at the 2 through 4 spots in the lineup, do not expect them to fall off a cliff, either. Musselman has really gotten his team to buy in on this end, and the plethora of lanky lineups will fly around and challenge shots all over the floor. Davis is the tone-setter, often picking up 94 feet to force opposing guards to work at getting the ball up the court (though that may decrease if his offensive burden increases). Williams is no Vanover as a shot-blocker, but he has solid instincts and enough size to consistently affect shots when drivers do get to the rim.

Bottom Line: Musselman has proven time and again that he can take unfamiliar pieces and meld them into a cohesive unit, with last year’s defense being perhaps his most impressive work. This year’s roster has similar types of players – plenty of 6’4 to 6’7 switchable athletes – but whether they’re up to the same caliber of player as the 2021 team is a topic of debate. Lykes’ health is another concern, although if Davis and Robinson play up to their potential (and stay healthy themselves), Musselman should have enough ball-handling to withstand his diminutive scorer being unavailable. Particularly after last year’s postseason run, the Muss Bus is packed with ardent supporters, and he has a chance to put those fans in a fervor with another deep and versatile squad.