- Ky McKeon

*** NOTE: This preview was released prior to 8/17, the date Isaiah Joe decided to do a U-turn and enter the NBA Draft. Arkansas would likely fall out of our top 40 with this news, but the Hogs still have plenty of talent with which to push for an NCAA Tournament bid. Moses Moody likely enters the starting five and could put up big numbers in his freshman season. ***

Key Returners: Isaiah Joe, Desi Sills, Ethan Henderson
Key Losses: Mason Jones, Jimmy Whitt, Adrio Bailey, Jalen Harris, Jeantal Cylla, Reggie Chaney
Key Newcomers: Jalen Tate (Northern Kentucky), Justin Smith (Indiana), JD Notae (Jacksonville), Vance Jackson (New Mexico), Connor Vanover (California), Abayomi Iyiola (Stetson), Moses Moody, KK Robinson, Jaylin Williams, Davonte Davis

Lineup:

Outlook: Year two of the Eric Musselman era down in Fayetteville looks mighty promising. The Razorbacks lose arguably the best player in the SEC from a season ago in Mason Jones but return Isaiah Joe and add a host of DI transfers and the nation’s 7th best recruiting class. Musselman will be faced with an unfamiliar dilemma: extreme depth. Last year, Musselman said at a press conference that he likes keeping a short rotation, supporting his focus on hitting the transfer wire hard and turning Arkansas into Transfer U of the south. In 2020-21, Muss has a plethora of players at his disposal capable of playing meaningful minutes in the SEC – figuring out rotations and pecking order will be one of his greatest challenges early in the season.

Musselman’s offenses during his college coaching career have exhibited a few constants: his teams do not crash the offensive glass; they handle the ball well; they run in transition; they space the floor; they shoot threes; they get to the foul line. The only Muss covenant that Arkansas seemed to break last year was ball movement – the Razorbacks had one of the lowest assist rates in the country, a result of heavy isolation ball led by Jones. At Nevada, Musselman’s squads were among the best in the nation at moving the rock, something we should see this year’s Arkansas team improve upon from 2019-20. Transition offense will continue to be a focus for the Hogs after ranking 3rd in the country last year in scoring on the run (1.195 PPP). Once again, Musselman has plenty of guards and versatile wings and forwards with which to run in the open floor. Arkansas will continue to play mostly 4-out and even 5-out in the halfcourt, giving its many shooters and playmakers ample space to work.

Defensively, look for the Hogs to improve on the glass, an area in which they were destroyed, particularly in SEC play. Transfers like Justin Smith (Indiana), Connor Vanover (Cal), Abayomi Iyiola (Stetson), and Vance Jackson (New Mexico) and freshman Jaylin Williams will bolster a frontline that suffered last season from a severe lack of size. Arky’s perimeter defense should continue to be stout with the length and athleticism on the arc; however, expecting a repeat of holding opponents to 27.2% from the land of plenty might be asking too much. Musselman’s squad will continue to pressure opponents in the halfcourt, force turnovers, and make players beat them one-on-one instead of with the pass.

Isaiah Joe’s return to school was the biggest (and most welcome) news of the offseason for Razorback fans. Joe is an incredibly talented, long wing capable of earning a spot on this year’s 1st Team All-SEC. Despite all his talent, Joe insists on settling too much for deep threes at times, though with a stroke as smooth as his it’s hard to argue with his decision:

In just two seasons, Joe has attempted a ridiculous 548 three-pointers and 77% of his shots last year were from behind the arc. His efficiency decreased from his freshman year, going from 41.4% to 34.2% on similar 3PFGA, but that was in part due to Joe attempting more off-the-dribble threes as a sophomore. To pigeon-hole Joe as just a shooter, though, would severely understate his impact to this team. When he went down with injury last year, Arkansas went 0-5, all but relinquishing any claim it had at a potential at-large bid. Joe opens up Arky’s offense, yes, but he’s also an asset defensively with his length and quickness. Look for Joe to assume undisputed alpha status this season and cement his status as one of the best guards in the country.

Only two other meaningful pieces return from last year’s team. 6’1” combo guard Desi Sills should still maintain a key role in the rotation despite the incoming talent. Sills will aid in ball handling and outside shooting; he has the offensive fortitude to lead the team in scoring on any given night. Frontcourt role player Ethan Henderson could see a reduced role this year, but he brings rebounding to the fold, an area in which the Hogs need improvement. With Musselman’s preference to play four or five guards on the court at a time, Henderson likely gets buried or earns spot minutes.

Six Division I transfers join the Hogs this season, each of whom bring something meaningful to the table. In the backcourt, Musselman adds Northern Kentucky grad transfer Jalen Tate and Jacksonville transfer JD Notae, two guys who will compete for starting spots all season. Tate is a two-time All-Horizon League selection and is coming off a season in which he battled through injury. His ability to handle the ball and run the point at 6’6” gives the Hogs size in the backcourt and bolsters their defensive perimeter shell. While not a great outside shooter, Tate can create his own offense off the bounce and knows how to run an offense. Notae was a 2nd Team All-Atlantic Sun selection as a sophomore two years ago; he was the Dolphins’ best player in 2018-19 and led his conference in usage. His inefficient numbers are a bit misleading, as Notae was forced to do everything for a bad team. At Arkansas, he should improve his efficiency in a more complementary role. Like Tate, Notae can run the point and create his own shot – his quickness and ability to stop and change directions on a dime will be an asset to the Hogs offensively:

Up front, Musselman adds the aforementioned Smith, Vanover, Jackson, and Iyiola from the transfer portal. Jackson is the one to really watch of these four, a former top 100 recruit who has spent time at UConn and New Mexico during his collegiate career. Jackson’s versatility in the frontcourt gives the Hogs something they severely lacked last season; he can play the 4 or 5, space the floor with his shooting, and score on the block when needed. He’ll be a perfect cog in Musselman’s offense – not many forwards can do this:

Smith started all 32 games last year for Indiana, but I’m not convinced he necessarily starts on day one for the Hogs. Smith’s reputation is as a highly athletic, all-out hustle guy, somebody who does a little bit of everything offensively while doing nothing great. Defense is where Smith’s addition will really shine through, as he’s capable of guarding nearly every position on the floor with his athleticism. Jackson is the far superior shooting threat, but Smith offers a little more in the “mix-it-up” column – he’ll provide rebounding, defense, and tenacity on offense.

Vanover looks goofy at 7’3” with the body thickness of a walking stick, but he can actually play. The former Cal Bear can space the floor from beyond the arc and ranked 4th in the Pac 12 as a freshman in block rate. Though he may get pushed around a bit by brawnier SEC bigs, Vanover will at least add resistance at the rim defensively. Iyiola was the best player on a terrible Stetson team two years ago, and it’s hard to say exactly what role he’ll have on an SEC team. At the very least, Iyiola will add energy, rebounding, and defense, but Arky fans shouldn’t expect anything on the offensive side of the ball.

If we stopped at the players previously mentioned, we’d be looking at a typical Musselman team chock full of transfer talent but thin overall from a depth perspective. What makes this year’s Arkansas squad so promising is the addition of one of the best recruiting classes in the nation to an already solid group of veterans. Moses Moody, KK Robinson, Jaylin Williams, and Davonte Davis are all 4-star recruits with the potential to earn playing time this year and develop into very good players in the near future.

Moody, a top 50 guard out of Montverde, will fight for starting minutes in the backcourt and could help Arky form an intimidatingly long perimeter with Tate and Joe. Moody is a jack of all trades on the floor, able to contribute in scoring, rebounding, defense, and ball handling. He plays very in control and has a level of poise not often seen in college freshmen. Robinson, a top 60 PG from Oak Hill, is my favorite recruit of the bunch. He’s a tough, quick lefty with a beautiful shooting stroke; I can see him running the Arkansas offense in year one. Williams is a top 100 center who can shoot the three and score and pass effectively in the post. He’ll be right in the mix for frontcourt minutes in his first season. Davis is a borderline top 100 combo guard who clearly has talent but may be a year or two away from making a huge impact.

Bottom Line: There’s a lot to like about Arkansas this season, top of which is the embarrassing amount of talent on the roster. If Mussleman can quickly hammer out a rotation that works while maintaining strong chemistry, the Hogs can compete for a top four finish in the SEC.