- Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Anthony Lamb, R Sr., Vermont
Coach of the Year: John Becker, Vermont
Newcomer of the Year: Malik Ellison, R Sr., Hartford
Freshman of the Year: Ja’Shonte Wright-McLeish, Fr., Maine

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. Vermont

Key Returners: Anthony Lamb, Stef Smith, Everett Duncan, Robin Duncan, Ben Shungu, Isaiah Powell, Ryan Davis
Key Losses: Ernie Duncan, Samuel Dingba, Ra Kpedi
Key Newcomers: Daniel Giddens (Alabama), Eric Beckett, Aaron Deloney, Duncan Demuth (Oklahoma State)

Lineup:

Outlook: Vermont has been an America East and mid-major powerhouse for the past two decades, racking up conference titles and NCAA Tournament appearances year after year. Under John Becker, the Catamounts have gone a ridiculous 107-21 in America East play, achieving eight straight (and 11 overall dating back to 2009) 20+ win seasons. The past three seasons have been particularly dominant for the Catamounts, going 83-21 (45-3) and ranking in KenPom’s top 76 each of those years. Time and time again Vermont has proven its ability to go toe-to-toe against Power 6 competition and the 2019-20 season could be the school’s best since 2005.

Everything Vermont does begins and ends with Anthony Lamb, a 6’6” senior forward sure to go down in Catamount and America East history as one of the best players to ever grace the court. The reigning AEC Player of the Year and All-Defense Team member garnered national attention as a junior last year, achieving career highs in every statistical category and earning an Honorable Mention All-America nod. Vermont plays through Lamb on the offensive end, throwing him the rock at the top of the key, on the block, or in the high post.

Lamb loves to operate in isolation, scoring 1.137 PPP (94th percentile) in those situations, and has excellent court vision which he uses to find his numerous spot-up shooters (12th in the AEC in assist rate). In the America East, Lamb has no equal and dominates the competition inside and out. Last year, he even added a three-point shot to his already complete game, knocking down 36.5% of his 137 attempts.

But it isn’t just against AEC competition where Lamb excels – he does it against the big boys too. In fact, Lamb has actually played better against “Tier A + B” competition each of the past two seasons, unhindered by his “undersized” frame:

In Lamb, Vermont has the best player by far in the conference and a possible All-American. Offensively, the Catamounts will allow him to work in space and feast off the open looks he creates.

Stef Smith, Everett Duncan, and Robin Duncan will be the primary benefactors of Lamb’s gravity this season. Smith is a high usage guard who prefers to play off the ball and use his shooting chops (36.6% from 3 in 2018-19) to scorch the defense. He’s especially good in hand-off situations where he scored 1.20 PPP last season, 88th percentile nationally per Synergy. Everett Duncan is primarily a spot-up shooter and once of the best outside marksmen on the roster. During his career, Duncan has connected on 40.8% of his outside looks and shot 228 3P versus just 81 2P. His brother Robin, an AEC All-Rookie Team member in 2018-19, is much more of a slasher and should take on a lot of the ball handling duties in his sophomore season. Ben Shungu, a 6’2” guard who started six of Vermont’s final seven games last year, will also see plenty of run in the backcourt this season. He’s a money outside shooter and last year ranked 5th in the league in steal rate on the other end. The incumbents will be pushed for minutes by two promising freshmen in Eric Beckett and Aaron Deloney. Beckett, AAU teammates with Smith, is a load of a guard at 6’4” 225 lbs. He drives hard to the bucket and can shoot it from deep; he has all the makings of a very good college player. Deloney is a point guard out of Oregon where he was named the High School Player of the Year. With a lack of lead guards on the roster, Deloney could carve out a role on the ball in 2019-20.

Lamb will have the luxury of playing his more natural 4-man position this year with the arrival of Alabama grad transfer Daniel Giddens, an absolutely enormous get for Becker off the transfer wire. Giddens is a former top 50 high school recruit and spent time at Ohio State before playing for the Tide the past two seasons. At 6’11”, Giddens will be a nightmare in the paint defensively, blocking and altering shots. He’ll be a perfect complement to Lamb’s burgeoning outside game and should compete for an All-Conference spot this season.

Sophomores Ryan Davis and Isaiah Powell and OK State transfer Duncan Demuth will round out the frontcourt rotation, with 6’5” junior wing Bailey Patella filling a deeper reserve role. Davis had a solid freshman season, proving to be a good rebounder and able to stretch the floor a bit. Powell struggled as a rookie, notching by far the worst o-rating on the team (one of only two players below an o-rating of 100.0 and the only one below 90.0), a result of poor shooting and a high turnover rate. He had his moments in 2018-19, scoring 15+ points four times, so perhaps consistency is on the way this year. Demuth played in every game for the Cowboys last season and started three; he’ll be a key piece off the pine spelling Giddens and (less often) Lamb.

Vermont’s offense will have no issue scoring against AEC opponents and its defense should once again be the best in the league. Becker’s squads force teams to play long possessions on this end and always rank among the nation’s best in defensive rebounding rate (4th in 2019-20). The Catamounts are a highly switchable defense, a lot of which has to do with Lamb’s versatility on this end and ability to guard multiple positions. Despite often being one of the smaller teams in the country, the Catamounts consistently stand up to bigger foes – they gave the behemoths at Florida State quite a scare in Round 1 of the Dance last season.

Bottom Line: Vermont will once again be one of the best mid-majors in the land and a top 75 squad. With Lamb now a senior and the addition of a legit center in Daniel Giddens, the Catamounts will be a dangerous team in the non-conference against big-name foes like St. John’s, Virginia, and Cincinnati. Expect Becker’s team to run the table in the America East and represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in four seasons.

Tier 2

2. Stony Brook

Key Returners: Elijah Olaniyi, Andrew Garcia, Miles Latimer, Jeff Otchere, Anthony Ochefu, Jordan McKenzie
Key Losses: Akwasi Yeboah, Jaron Cornish, Jules Moor, Corry Long
Key Newcomers: Makale Foreman (Chattanooga), Tyler Stephenson-Moore, Tavin Pierre Philippe, Mouhamadou Gueye (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Jeff Boals led the Seawolves to their most regular season wins in program history in 2018-19, racking up a 24-9 (12-4) record and another top three America East finish. Boals rode his recent success to an opportunity at Ohio, his alma mater, making him the second Stony Brook coach in four years to get poached by a higher-level program. In Boals’ place steps Geno Ford, a Stony Brook assistant the past three seasons and former head coach at Kent State and Bradley. Ford exceled at Kent State, leading the Flashes to a 35-13 MAC record in three years, but struggled to create traction at Bradley in four seasons. With Ford’s experience on the Stony staff, his transition to the head coaching spot should be a smooth one. The Seawolves will be without Akwasi Yeboah, a 1st Team All-AEC performer, this season as Yeboah took his talents to Rutgers this summer, but they have plenty of returning talent to finish 2nd to the Vermont juggernaut.

Yeboah’s impact on the floor was significant, particularly on the defensive end:

His versatility helped lead the Seawolves to finish 2nd in the AEC in defense, per KenPom. Stony Brook won games last season due to their defense, which was nearly impenetrable inside the paint with center Jeff Otchere lurking. The Seawolves ranked 5th in the country in FG% defense at the rim last year and 17th in eFG% defense overall. With Otchere, the nation’s leader in block rate (16.2%!!!) and reigning AEC Defensive Player of the Year, returning, Stony Brook should once again be a fierce defensive squad even with the Yeboah departure. Ford has a wealth of versatile, athletic wings and forwards to do battle with in the America East.

The offensive side of the ball is another story, particularly with the graduation of point guard Jaron Cornish, without whom the Seawolves struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket in 2018-19:

Cornish was Stony’s primary ball handler and paced the Wolves in transition, a key area of offense for Boals’ squad last season. Other than transition, Stony Brook relied heavily on offensive rebounding to score points, as outside shooting was hard to come by. The Seawolves ranked dead last in the America East in 3P% and had only one player shoot over 33% from deep on a medium-to-high volume. This futility in the shooting department led Boals to crank up the tempo and become the fastest team in the AEC, uncharacteristic of his past Stony squads.

Ford has decisions to make from a pace perspective. Presumably he’ll maintain a similar smashmouth style of offense, as his former Kent and Bradley squads tended to rely on the paint, free throw line, and glass to score as well, but pace is an unknown at this point. Having no true point guard is certainly an issue. Junior Jordan McKenzie can run point, but he’s struggled with ball security in two seasons and is a career 11.3% three-point shooter. Freshmen guards Tyler Stephenson-Moore and Tavin Pierre Philippe could also see run on the ball. Both can play multiple positions and bring athleticism and versatility to both ends of the floor. And then there’s the two best shooters on the team, sophomore Miles Latimer and Chattanooga transfer Makale Foreman. Both guys would prefer to play off the ball but may be forced to handle PG duties due to the lack of viable personnel. Latimer earned a spot on the AEC All-Rookie squad last season and led the team in minutes as a freshman His shooting percentages fell off in conference play, so he’ll look to improve consistency in year two. Foreman shot 39.7% from three on a high volume in 2017-18 and led the SoCon in minutes that year – his transfer is incredibly key to a Stony team in desperate need of shooting.

Ford’s bevy of wings and forwards should keep Stony afloat in the conference defensive rankings. Joining Otchere in the starting five will likely be juniors Elijah Olaniyi, arguably Stony Brook’s most important player this year, and Andrew Garcia, last year’s AEC Sixth Man of the Year. Olaniyi, a 3rd Team All-AEC member in 2018-19, will be Stony Brook’s key cog offensively this season after shooting 39.2% from 3 and 52.7% from 2 in league play last year. The 6’5” forward is capable of playing the 3 or 4, rebounds well, and draws fouls at a high rate. Garcia ranked 2nd in the conference in OR% last season and like Olaniyi has a knack for drawing contact and earning trips to the line. Unlike Olaniyi, Garcia is not an outside shooting threat.

JUCO transfer Mouhamadou Gueye (aka Mo) figures to make the largest impact of the newcomers and slot into a primary frontcourt rotation role in his first year at Stony Brook. Gueye is a long forward whose late growth spurt helped him develop ball handling skills not often seen from a lanky 6’9” guy. He moves well enough to play the 3 and will be a force protecting the rim with his length and athleticism. Anthony Ochefu and Alex Christie will round out the 5-man rotation, while sophomore Haasan Ceesay likely maintains a limited role on the wing.

Bottom Line: Despite the loss of Jeff Boals and Akwasi Yeboah, Stony Brook appears to be a legitimate 2nd-place contender in the America East this season. The Seawolves have work to do on the offensive end, particularly from a ball handling and shooting standpoint, but new blood and experience should help ease that effort. Defense and physicality should continue to be elite.

3. UMBC

Key Returners: KJ Jackson, Arkel Lamar, Brandon Horvath, RJ Eytle-Rock, Max Curran, Daniel Akin, Ricky Council II
Key Losses: Joe Sherburne, Jose Placer, Nolan Gerrity, Sam Schwietz
Key Newcomers: Dimitrije Spasojevic (East Carolina), Keondre Kennedy (JUCO), Darnell Rogers (JUCO), Nathan Johnson, LJ Owens (William & Mary)***

Lineup:

*** LJ Owens’s eligibility is pending a waiver ***

Outlook: Ryan Odom continued his impressive run at UMBC in his third season, leading his Retrievers to another AEC Tourney final and finishing 11-5 (3rd) in conference play. While UMBC didn’t reach the Big Dance and pull the upset of the century in 2018-19, the Retrievers did win 20+ games for the 3rd straight year, an unprecedented feat in school DI history. UMBC joined the DI ranks in 1986-87; prior to Odom arriving, the Retrievers had just two 20+ win seasons. First Team All-AEC forward Joe Sherburne graduated this offseason, but Odom has a deep core of returners and a promising class of newcomers with which to fight for another NCAA Tourney run.

UMBC’s offense and defense rankings have done a complete 180 since Odom took over in 2016-17. In his first year at the helm, the Retrievers had a near-top 100 offense and one of the worst defenses in the country. Last season was just the opposite – UMBC was one of the worst offenses in the nation per KenPom (313th) but had a near-top 100 defense. Shooting was the primary factor for UMBC’s offensive woes, as the Retrievers managed to shoot just 31.3% from deep after shooting over 38% the two years prior. Odom likes to spread the floor on offense and shoot from the outside, but that doesn’t yield great results when nobody on the team can shoot. Perhaps to compensate for the unbalanced sides, Odom slowed UMBC’s tempo down to a crawl last season, ranking 311th in tempo in the country versus 52nd in 2016-17 and 170th in 2017-18. The Retrievers spent most of their time in the halfcourt where spot-ups dominated their possession usage.

Odom didn’t completely address the shooting issue this offseason, but there’s reason to believe UMBC improves in this area other than sheer correction to the mean. Keondre Kennedy, a JUCO import, is a promising long, wing shooter who should see ample time this season. William & Mary transfer LJ Owens could also contribute greatly in this area, that is if he’s granted a waiver to play right away. Owens can also run some point, allowing returning star KJ Jackson to play more off the ball. Likewise, 5’2” point guard Darnell Rogers, formerly of FGCU, can provide shooting and point guard play. Rogers is nearly impossible to stay in front of due to his size, handle, and quickness. Freshman wing Nathan Johnson is also a capable shooter from distance, but he likely won’t crack the primary rotation this year.

The backcourt and wing returners have potential to improve on mostly lackluster shooting seasons. Jackson, a 2nd Team All-AEC and All-Defense performer, will run a lot of point this year, but moving him off the ball could do wonders for his shooting and scoring. With Sherburne gone, Jackson will have to become the go-to scorer on offense. Defensively, he’ll lead the charge for what should be another elite unit – last season Jackson ranked 18th in the country in steal rate (1st in the AEC). Shooting guards RJ Eytle-Rock and Ricky Council will also be called upon to take on higher usage roles. Eytle-Rock was an All-Rookie Team member last year after stepping up as a freshman and playing strong defense. He shot much better in league play than in the non-conference slate, but he’s still a lower volume outside shooter, preferring to slash to the hoop instead. Council is the best shooter on the roster. The former Providence guard was a part-time starter in 2018-19 and shot 40.8% from three, the best mark on the team. Returning wing Arkel Lamar will look to rediscover his outside shot after shooting just 29.5% from deep following a year in which he shot 41%. Lamar is more of a defensive and rebounding asset than an offensive one (he’s never eclipsed a 100.0 O-Rating), but he’ll need to be a threat on the perimeter for UMBC’s offense to improve.

UMBC will have one of the deepest frontcourts in the conference this year, featuring four players with starting experience. Brandon Horvath started just one game for the Retrievers last year but played starter’s minutes – he can step out and shoot the three in theory but has hit just 24.1% of his 112 career attempts. Max Curran and Daniel Akin were both full-time starters last season before injuries shut them down. Curran is mostly a rebounder but also has the ability to step away from the hoop and can provide some rim protection on the other end. Akin was an All-Rookie Team member in 2017-18 and is arguably the best rebounder in the league. Offensively, he is strictly paint bound, offering little in skill on that end. East Carolina transfer Dimitrije Spasojevic started 40 games for the Pirates in two seasons; his numbers weren’t spectacular at ECU, but he offers experience and another big body to plug into the frontcourt.

With its offense still a question mark (especially if Owens is a no-go), UMBC will hang its hat on defense once again this year. Jackson helped lead the Retrievers to the 11th best TO% in the country in 2018-19 and UMBC’s slew of big men (plus a little bit of good coaching) helped the Retrievers rank 22nd in the country in DR%. Odom’s teams have historically allowed a high rate of three-point attempts, but his teams do close-out well and limit second chance opportunities. We should expect to see a healthy dose of fullcourt press this season following UMBC ranking 71st nationally in press rate in 2018-19, while likely a limited amount of zone looks. Both the perimeter and interior should be lockdown this season defensively.

Bottom Line: UMBC’s defense alone should catapult it into the top three of the AEC standings, but offense will likely hold the Retrievers back from upsetting the Catamounts in the postseason tournament. If returning guards can find their stroke and guys like Kennedy, Owens, and/or Rogers provide an immediate spark, Odom is a good enough coach to repeat some of the magic of 2018. And though he’s turned down bigger offers, it would shock me to see Odom at the helm of this program much longer – he has proven to be an excellent coach and Power 6 schools around the country should be salivating.

4. Albany

Key Returners: Ahmad Clark, Cameron Healy, Adam Lulka, Antonio Rizzuto, Kendall Lauderdale, Malachi De Sousa, Brent Hank
Key Losses: Devonte Campbell, Rayshawn Miller
Key Newcomers: JoJo Anderson (Northern Arizona), Romani Hansen (JUCO), Trey Hutcheson, Mitch Doherty, Sam Shafer

Lineup:

Outlook: Will Brown enters his 19th season as head coach of Albany, a program he’s built during its 21-year Division I history. The Danes have been in good hands under Brown, making five NCAA Tournaments and consistently finishing near the top of the America East standings. Last year though was a setback for the program, as an extremely young and inexperienced squad resulted in Brown’s worst season since 2010. This year the Danes will look to get back on track with nearly 79% of their minutes returning from 2018-19 and two All-Conference performers leading the way.

Albany was a guard-centric team last season led by Ahmad Clark and Cameron Healy. The Danes shots the most threes in Brown’s coaching tenure, ranking 31st in the country in percentage of points scored from three versus just 340th from two. Clark and Healy also combined to help the Danes lead the country in percentage of plays ended via pick-n-roll and achieve the highest assist rate in school history. With the pair returning, Albany should once again rely heavily on its guards and outside shots to win ball games, but the addition of Savannah State grad transfer Romani Hansen should help bolster the frontcourt production.

Clark, a 3rd Team All-AEC performer last year, is Albany’s point guard, a talented scorer who likes to work off ball screens and push in transition. In 2019-20, Clark’s usage skyrocketed, ranking 13th in the country and 2nd in the AEC. He led the conference in assist rate and ranked 2nd in steal rate, proving to be a gifted three-level scorer and distributor and tenacious on-ball defender. Heading into his junior year, Clark will look to improve on suspect shooting and shot selection. His efficiency is key for Albany’s conference championship aspirations.

Healy and fellow sophomore Antonio Rizzuto are the primary benefactors of Clark’s work out of the PnR. Healy earned 3rd All-Conference and All-Rookie honors last season and scored 1.313 PPP on spot-ups, 98th percentile in the nation. The high usage Australian guard ranked 2nd in the league in FT% and 5th in 3P% despite attempting nearly eight threes per game in 2018-19. Rizzuto also shot well from deep on a high volume (35.7%) and attempted over three times as many threes than twos last season. The pair give Albany one of the best shooting backcourts in the America East. Freshmen Sam Shafer, who started his career at Southern Illinois, and Trey Hutcheson, a tough and skilled wing, will add to the Danes’ shooting prowess.

While Clark, Healy, and Rizzuto seem to have the inside track to starting honors in the backcourt, Northern Arizona transfer JoJo Anderson and up-and-coming sophomore Malachi De Sousa will be right in the mix. Anderson was a double-digit scorer at NAU and notched a crazy high FT rate in 2017-18; he can also run the point in a pinch when Brown wants to sit Clark or move him off the ball. De Sousa started five of Albany’s final six contests, coming on strong at the end of the year. He’s one of the more athletic players on the Dane roster and more of a slasher than the other shoot-first guards.

Brown will have plenty of frontcourt depth this season which should hopefully help improve a defense that was consistently slaughtered near the rim last year. Adam Lulka, a team captain, is a lock to start at the 4 and represents the best post-up threat on the team. He ranked 3rd in the AEC in OR% and 2nd in 2P% as a freshman and should be in line for a major sophomore leap. He’ll line up next to either fellow sophomore Brent Hank, a 29-game starter last season, or Romani Hansen. Hank rebounded well last year but was a non-factor offensively. Hansen enjoyed a successful offseason Canadian trip, putting up impressive scoring and rebounding numbers. At Savannah State, Hansen ranked 3rd in the MEAC in FT rate and 2PFG%, and even shot the ball well from the outside in league play. He offers much more versatility on the offensive end than Hank. Kendall Lauderdale, Sasha French, and freshman Mitch Doherty will round out Albany’s frontcourt depth. Lauderdale figures to challenge for starts after a successful offseason trip of his own.

Defensive improvement is needed for Albany to climb the standings in 2019-20. Rim protection and resistance was minimal in 2018-19, something that should improve this season. Elsewhere, the Danes were simply so-so at nearly every other defensive facet. Brown squads usually stymy transition opportunities, rebound extremely well defensively, and defend without fouling.

Bottom Line: Albany likely takes one of the biggest jumps in the America East this season with a more experienced roster and the addition of another legitimate frontcourt threat. Brown’s squad still won’t be near the caliber of Vermont, but the Danes should compete in the top four of the league and achieve a 2-4 game improvement.

5. UMass Lowell

Key Returners: Obadiah Noel, Christian Lutete, Josh Gantz, Darius Henderson, Bryce Daley, Joey Glynn, Allin Blunt
Key Losses: Alex Rivera, Ryan Jones, Shawn Jones
Key Newcomers: Kalil Thomas, Ron Mitchell, Connor Withers, Donovan Ivory, Luka Maziashvili, Jordyn Owens (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Pat Duquette and his River Hawks exceeded expectations last season after starting the year ranked 310th in KenPom (finished 258th) and being picked dead last in the America East preseason poll. UML rode a solid non-conference showing to a 7-9 AEC record, finishing 5th in the conference standings and achieving the school’s highest win total (15) in its short DI history. Duquette has kept the River Hawks right around .500 in league play since the school joined the DI ranks back in 2013-14, but this could be the year his team finally breaks through. A strong core of returners, including last year’s two leading scorers, should help UML compete for as high as 2nd this season in the America East.

Offense has never been the issue at UMass Lowell under Duquette. The River Hawks ranked 3rd in the AEC last year in offensive efficiency and have ranked in the top four each of the past four seasons. Duquette runs an uptempo style of attack, looking to take advantage of the almost-always bigger opposing squad in the open floor. In the half-court, the Hawks settle into a 4-out look with a keen focus on the pick-n-roll, which it ranked 6th in the country in frequency of possessions used either via the ball handler or the roll man. Oddly enough, UML was the very best team in the country last year from an efficiency perspective on post-up plays, but the Hawks rarely look to score on the block and are usually among the shortest teams in the country.

Defense is a different story, an area where UML has missed the mark in just about every season under Duquette. Size is a huge cause of this ineptitude, as only five teams nationally allowed more chances at the rim last year than the Hawks. Duquette’s squad does well at taking away the three, but they are almost always slammed in the paint. The emergence of sophomore Darius Henderson in the middle this year could help improve this area of weakness. Henderson lost 30 pounds this offseason after fitness and a high foul rate limited his contributions to just over 11 minutes per game despite starting 27 contests. If he can stay on the floor, his size gives UML something it’s rarely had in years past and allows more natural power forwards – like redshirt senior Josh Gantz – to slide over to their natural position.

UML’s hopes for a top three AEC finish this season lie in the high-scoring wing combo Obadiah Noel and Christian Lutete. Both players are dynamic with the ball in their hands and are adept at scoring off the bounce. Noel isn’t quite the shooter Lutete is, but he ranked 2nd in the league in FT rate last year and will be on the shortlist of candidates for an All-Conference Team spot this season. Lutete, a 2nd Team All-AEC member last year, took the reins of the offense in 2018-19 after coming over from Radford. He ranked 6th in the conference in 3P% (40.8%) and showed his ability to flat out score from anywhere on the floor. Lutete’s enviable combination of speed and size allows him to take advantage of whatever his defender gives him – he’ll be one of the highest scoring players in the AEC this year and a lock to earn All-Conference honors once again.

Gantz and Henderson will form the starting frontcourt for the River Hawks. Gantz held his own against bigger forwards last year but should play more 4 this season with Henderson’s improved stamina. He’s a very good shooter and thrives off rolls in the PnR. Henderson can also stretch the floor a bit, but his biggest value lies in his defense, rebounding, and just sheer size.

The point guard position will be one of the biggest questions for UML this season after Ryan and Shawn Jones graduated this offseason. Sophomore Bryce Daley appears to be the favorite to earn starts at the 1, but he was very inefficient as a freshman, shooting poorly and turning it over at a high rate. From a facilitation perspective, Daley performed adequately and has reportedly worked hard this offseason on his confidence. He’ll be pushed by JUCO transfer Jordyn Owens for PG minutes, a super quick and shifty lead guard with a good-looking stroke. Freshman Ron Mitchell also could chip in with ball handling, but he’s better suited off the ball with his ability to run in the open floor. Kalil Thomas and Donovan Ivory will also fight for minutes in a crowded UML backcourt. Both are long athletes who can handle the ball – Ivory in particular is a player to watch for down the road. Luka Maziashvili rounds out the newbies in the backcourt; he has international experience with the U20 Georgia National Team and is a pure point guard who can shoot the three.

In the frontcourt, returners Joey Glynn and Allin Blunt will battle with freshman Connor Withers for minutes behind Gantz and Henderson. Glynn is a paint-bound PF with good touch around the basket, Blunt can shoot a little from the outside, and Withers is a stretch 4 with major range.

Bottom Line: UML likely improves from its 15-17 (7-9) 2018-19 season and competes for a top three finish in the AEC in 2019-20. The offense will be there and is sure to be one of the best units in the conference, but defense will remain a major question. If Henderson can stay on the floor, UML has a good shot at dramatically improving on that end and making a Cinderella postseason run.

Tier 3

6. Hartford

Key Returners: Romain Boxus, Nikola Colovic, DJ Mitchell
Key Losses: John Carroll, JR Lynch, Jason Dunne, George Blagojevic, Travis Weatherington, Eddie Davis, Max Twyman
Key Newcomers: Traci Carter (La Salle), Malik Ellison (Pittsburgh), Cian Sullivan (La Salle), Garrett Kingman (JUCO), Austin Williams (JUCO), Moses Flowers, PJ Henry, Miroslav Stafl

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year’s Hartford squad was arguably the most talented in Division I program history and the school’s best shot at a first NCAA Tournament bid. The Hawks ranked #1 in the country in experience, started five seniors, and were tabbed to finish 2nd in the preseason poll, garnering three first place votes over Vermont. After finishing a disappointing 4th place in the AEC standings, Hartford’s season ended with a tight 2OT Tourney loss to UMBC. The hype surrounding the Hawks program was short-lived, as now John Gallagher must bring his team through a rebuilding process that is sure to have growing pains. All five starters depart from last season – the Hawks return the second fewest minutes in the nation in 2019-20, leading analytics site BartTorvik.com to predict Hartford to be the WORST team in the country this coming season.

As much as I love BartTorvik, I assure you Hartford will not be the worst team in the country this season. Gallagher went to the transfer wire for rebuild help and roped him a couple big names from the high-major world. Traci Carter, formerly of Marquette and La Salle, and Malik Ellison, formerly of St. John’s and Pitt, will be the leaders of the team this season and prime All-Conference Team candidates. The pair played together in high school and chose to team up for one last collegiate season. Hartford is an odd choice to spend your last year of eligibility – especially with the amount of roster turnover – but, it is a great place to put up gaudy counting stats. Gallagher teams always shoot a high volume of threes and space the floor, allowing the guards to work in isolation, off ball screens, or dribble hand-off. Carter will handle point guard duties while Ellison will have the green light to shoot and score from anywhere he’d like.

If college basketball was limited to 2 v. 2, Hartford would have a fighter’s chance at winning the league. Unfortunately, three other players are required to be on the floor with Carter and Ellison and that’s the primary reason to be pessimistic on the Hawks this year. Romain Boxus is the most “important” returner on the team, but he only played 18.5% of Hartford’s minutes last season and provided so-so play on the wing. Big man Nikola Colovic started three games last year and finished 2018-19 a perfect 10/10 from the field, but he’s logged just 21 games during his three-year career. Petr Stepanyants and Hunter Marks are both unproven frontcourt reserves, while Gallagher’s two other returners, Michael Dunne and DJ Mitchell, are walk-ons. Mitchell actually played 24 games last year for the Hawks, so he may be called upon to play some point behind Carter this season.

None of the returners figure to make an enormous impact this season, so Gallagher will have to turn to his newcomers to fill out his rotation. Former Marist guard Austin Williams will fight for the starting 2-guard spot (assuming he’s immediately eligible). Williams, a wing slasher (not a shooter), played in all 31 Marist contests last season. Garrett Kingman spent time in the JUCO ranks last season after starting his career at Idaho in 2017-18; he’s a wing who can play three positions, bang on the glass, and hit the occasional three-ball. Last of the transfers is Cian “Key” Sullivan, a 7’2” center who will provide shot blocking and rebounding. Not many guys in the AEC are over 7-feet tall, so he has a shot at making an immediate impact.

Three freshmen will vie for playing time as well this season. Moses Flowers and PJ Henry are both point guards eager to prove they can run the team the next three years after Carter’s graduation. Flowers is a good athlete and skilled in the open floor while Henry is lightning quick and possesses a tight handle. Czech forward Miroslav Stafl likely won’t see a ton of floor time this year, but he’ll add depth to the frontcourt corps.

Hartford ranked 95th in the country in offense last season (1st in the AEC), but its defense severely lagged behind. The Hawks were constantly killed on the glass and in the paint. Gallagher used less zone than in years past, but typically his Hartford squads play zone at a top-50 national rate. Per Synergy, Hartford allowed just 0.863 PPP while playing zone last year (75th percentile) versus 0.902 PPP playing man (24th percentile). With a thinner roster, Gallagher may opt to crank the zone looks – of which he has multiple – back up in 2019-20.

Bottom Line: Hartford is due for some major regression this season after turning in one of its best years in program history. The arrival of Carter and Ellison should keep the Hawks out of the AEC basement and semi-competitive with the middling teams in the league, but Hartford won’t sniff a top three finish in 2019-20.

Tier 4

7. Maine

Key Returners: Andrew Fleming, Sergio El Darwich, Vilgot Larsson, Miks Antoms
Key Losses: Isaiah White, Vincent Eze, Terion Moss, Ilija Stojiljkovic, Dennis Ashley, Celio Araujo
Key Newcomers: Nedeljko Prijovic (Texas State), Ja’Shonte Wright-McLeish, Peter Stumer, Veljko Radakovic, Ata Turgut, Agah Kizilkaya

Lineup:

Outlook: The Maine basketball program has been a disaster in recent history. Four seasons under Bob Walsh resulted in the Black Bears sporting an eye-popping 24-100 (12-52) record leading the program to make a change at head coach. Richard Barron, former coach of the Maine women’s basketball team, took the reins last year and though the team’s record didn’t improve, he laid the groundwork for future success. The Black Bears were surprisingly competitive in nearly every first half of every game last season, a testament to Barron’s coaching. Maine finished 5-27 (3-13) but lost three games in overtime and three more by three points or less – Barron has this program trending in the right direction.

The first thing you may notice about the Maine basketball roster is the international flavor. The Black Bears have only three U.S.-born players (two are walk-ons), a clear strategy by Barron and his predecessor when hitting the recruiting trail. While the Bears have plenty of players with impressive international experience, talent is definitely lacking. Because of this, Barron implemented a few unique stylistic quirks to give his team the best chance to win ball games. Maine plays at a very slow pace, preferring to stay patient on offense and limit possessions – only 11 teams in the country had a longer average offensive possession length. The Bears feed the post via heavy high-low action and use a barrage of hand-offs, basket cuts, and off-ball screens to find open looks. Barron’s squad ranked 3rd in the country in assist rate last season, a testament to their patient offensive style.

Defensively, Barron uses a matchup zone that tended to throw opponents off their games early last season. The zone is designed to completely take away opportunities from the middle of the key and near the rim, but it does result in the allowance of a high three-point rate – only 7 teams in the country allowed a higher three-point rate than Maine last season. Despite not being a great defensive squad overall in 2018-19, the Bears forced a healthy number of turnovers, rebounded well on the defensive glass, and blocked a fair amount of shots. That should all continue this season.

Personnel-wise, everything will revolve around Andrew Fleming this season, a 6’7” forward and member of the AEC’s All-Conference 2nd Team in 2018-19. Fleming led the Black Bears in scoring, rebounding, and assists last season, developed his three-point shot, and chipped in his fair share of blocks and steals as well. Maine looks to feed Fleming on the block nearly every possession where the only U.S.-born rotation player uses his fancy footwork and hook shots to crush the competition. Fleming’s co-captain, Sergio El Darwich, is Maine’s other main returning player, a 6’4” point guard whose size gives him a nice advantage on the perimeter. El Darwich, formerly of South Dakota State, is a capable floor general, but he’ll need to focus on cutting down his high turnover rate from a year ago.

Forward Vilgot Larsson is Maine’s final major contributor returning from last season. Larsson is a stretch forward out of Sweden who will likely resume his starting role alongside Fleming inside. Backing up Fleming and Larsson will be a combination of Latvian forward Miks Antoms, English forward Solomon Iluyomade, Canadian forward Stephane Ingo, Serbian forwards Nedeljko Prijovic and Veljko Radakovic, and Turkish forward Ata Turgut. Out of the group, Texas State transfer Prijovic has the best shot at making a significant contribution in 2019-20; he started six games for the Bobcats two years ago, is a skilled passer, and can step away from the hoop. Antoms, Ingo, and Iluyomade will add rim protection, particularly Iluyomade who sports a 7’2” wingspan. Radakovic is stretchy in nature but also has skilled footwork on the block; Turgut is a long combo forward who should help out on both ends of the floor.

Competing for starts in the backcourt will be Ukrainian wing Mykhailo “Misha” Yagodin, Canadian freshman combo guard Ja’Shonte Wright-McLeish, Swedish wing Peter “Peppe” Stumer, and Danish point guard Agah Kizilkaya. Yagodin played in one game last season, notching 20 minutes and scoring 7 points, but then missed the rest of the year. He’s a long wing who should be one of Maine’s higher scorers. Wright-McLeish is a very promising defensive guard with his length and athleticism combination. Offensively, he should chip in with shooting and scoring off the bounce. Stumer is primarily an outside shooter. Kizilkaya is a great passer and capable shooter.

Bottom Line: Maine basketball hasn’t notched double-digit wins since 2012-13. Barron rebuilt the women’s program and now looks to do the same with the men’s. While immediate improvement isn’t particularly likely, the Black Bears do have a puncher’s chance at 10 wins this season and as high as a 7th place finish in the AEC (which would be the school’s best since 2012-13).

8. New Hampshire

Key Returners: Josh Hopkins, Marque Maultsby, Nick Guadarrama, Jayden Martinez, Elijah Jordan, Chris Lester, Mark Carbone, Luke Rosinski
Key Losses: David Watkins, Jordan Reed, David Hall
Key Newcomers: Sean Sutherlin (JUCO), Meekness Payne (JUCO), Nick Johnson, Blondeau Tchoukuiengo

Lineup:

Outlook: 2018-19 was a season to forget in the 81-year history of the New Hampshire Wildcat basketball program. UNH finished a miserable 3-13 in America East play, the worst mark in the Bill Herrion era and the program’s worst since 1999-00 – but hey, at least they won two of their last three! An inexperienced roster and a complete inability to score derailed New Hampshire’s season. Herrion enters his 15th year at the helm hoping to turn things around in 2019-20; the Wildcats have a good shot at finishing above the other couple AEC bottom-feeders, but UNH will likely be one of the worst 50 teams in the country once again.

New Hampshire had the worst offense in the country last year per KenPom, posting an adjusted offensive efficiency of 84.4. That’s the worst mark since Florida A&M in 2015-16 and the 11th worst mark this decade. UNH’s main issue was shooting inside the arc – it ranked 341st in FG% at the rim and 349th in FG% on 2P jumpers. Piss poor offensive rebounding, the worst free throw rate in the nation, and the 349th ranked FT% didn’t help matters either. Herrion has never really had good offenses at UNH, but this was a whole new level of suck. The Wildcats will look to rebound from this effort and once again put a focus on shooting from behind the arc and conducting offense through the pick-n-roll. UNH’s outside shooting wasn’t great, but it was at least serviceable. Considering the severe lack of height on the roster and the plethora of capable shooters, we should expect to see the Cats repeat their 10th-highest 3PA rate of last year.

UNH’s defense was actually pretty good in 2018-19, oftentimes keeping the Wildcats in cover town (I admittedly bet way too much on this team last season). Herrion’s teams have consistently had two distinct trends at UNH: 1) elite defensive rebounding and 2) elite defensive assist rate. The Cats ranked 31st last season in DR% and 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 3rd the four years prior. UNH isn’t big by any stretch of the imagination, but the Cats box-out and team rebound as good as any squad in the country. The second trend, assist rate, is a stat oftentimes overlooked in college basketball. UNH keeping opponents’ assist totals low implies it makes opposing teams beat them off the bounce, usually an inefficient endeavor. Being good at keeping assist rates low is often a sign of good defense and good coaching. UNH should continue these trends in 2019-20, press in the fullcourt a bit, and have a keen commitment on stopping transition opportunities.

New Hampshire returns 8 guys with starting experience this season, which will hopefully boost offensive efficiency and overall performance. Josh Hopkins is the returning leading scorer, a wing shooter who shot better from 3P range than inside the arc last season. Hopkins is mainly a catch-and-shoot threat on offense, but he has the ability to put the ball on the floor when needed. He’ll line up alongside junior Elijah Jordan and sophomore Marque Maultsby, two guys who split point guard duties last season. Jordan sliced his 2017-18 turnover rate nearly in half last year, but his shooting tanked from a productive freshman campaign. Maultsby was thrown into the fire as a freshman last year; like most rookies he had turnover issues, which combined with overall terrible shooting percentages (30.3% from 2, 29.8% from 3) made him a detriment to his team on offense. Maultsby will need to focus on his efficiency and decision-making in year two – he’s a player UNH would like on the floor due to his creation ability.

Mark Carbone will lead the backcourt bench rotation this season after turning in a productive outside shooting season. Freshmen Nick Johnson and Blondeau Tchoukuiengo and JUCO transfer Sean Sutherlin will push Carbone and the others for playing time. Johnson is the guy to watch, a big wing who should contribute immediately on both ends. Sutherlin will help with UNH’s scoring woes and Tchoukuiengo can handle the ball behind Jordan and Maultsby. Redshirt junior Kijana Love will provide depth.

Inside, UNH will remain severely undersized, especially with David Watkins’ departure. 6’5” forward Nick Guadarrama will likely start at the 4 while Jayden Martinez (6’7”), Chris Lester (6’6”), and JUCO transfer Meekness Payne (6’8) will battle it out for a spot beside him. Guadarrama rebounded, passed, and shot well as a freshman, ranking 5th in the AEC in DR% and 3rd in 3P% (48.7%). He’s able to will his way to the foul line and is arguably the most versatile player on the roster. Martinez turned in a sky high defensive rebounding rate his freshman year and can space the floor like Guadarrama. When he and Guadarrama shared the floor, UNH was actually a respectable team, scoring 1.04 PPP (versus 0.86 PPP with all other lineups) and allowing 0.94 PPP (versus 1.02 PPP with all other lineups). Lester is a very good rebounder (6th in the AEC in OR%) despite his size, and also adds perimeter shooting (a bit) and passing from the frontcourt. Payne should see plenty of run his first season in Durham; he’s a versatile forward who can play inside or out. Senior forward Luke Rosinski – the biggest guy on the team – will round out Herrion’s deep rotation.

Bottom Line: New Hampshire is destined for another bottom three AEC finish, but the Cats will at least almost certainly be better than last year. Herrion’s defense should be one of the better units in the league – he just needs his offense to follow suit.  

9. Binghamton

Key Returners: Sam Sessoms, Richard Caldwell  
Key Losses: Caleb Stewart, JC Show, Chancellor Barnard, Everson Davis, Timmy Rose, Calistus Anyichie, Calvin Poulina
Key Newcomers: Pierre Sarr (Monmouth), Michael Besselink (Redshirt), Brenton Mills, Dan Petcash, George Tinsley, Hakon Hjalmarsson, Jevon Brown, Ador Athuai, Yarden Willis, Akuwovo Ogheneyole (Howard)***

Lineup:

*** Ogheneyole’s eligibility is pending a waiver ***

Outlook: Binghamton continued its awful play under Tommy Dempsey last season, though at least the Bearcats did score an AEC Tournament upset at Stony Brook to notch double-digit wins for the third straight year. Under Dempsey, Binghamton is 57-161 (25-87) in seven seasons, a far cry from the NCAA Tournament squad in 2009. Despite having one of the oldest teams in the country last year, the Bearcats spent another season in the AEC cellar. With only two returners from last year’s squad, Binghamton will face an uphill battle improving on 2018-19.

The Bearcats’ lone bright spot this season will be Sam Sessoms, an uber-talented sophomore guard who captured the league’s Rookie of the Year hardware and a spot on the All-Conference 3rd Team last year. Sessoms is the Bearcats’ offense – last season he was the 19th highest used player in the country (#1 in the AEC), and this year he should eclipse the 20 PPG mark. Sessoms runs point and creates his own shot as well as any player in the league – he scored 1.102 PPP in isolation last year, good for 92nd percentile nationally and only 15.7% of his 68 3PM were assisted. This year, Sessoms will demand double teams every time he touches the ball; he’s good enough to still put up massive numbers despite this, but questions abound if his supporting cast can do enough to help him shoulder the load.

Richard Caldwell is Binghamton’s other returning player, a high-flying wing who needs to severely improve from a lackluster shooting season. Caldwell should move into a starting role in 2019-20 and will be a key factor in Dempsey’s trapping full court press. JUCO transfer Jevon “JJ” Brown is an athletic two-way wing in the same mold as Caldwell; he’ll have a good shot at starting with the versatility he brings to the table. Finnish redshirt freshman Michael Besselink, a talented three-level scorer, and freshmen Brenton Mills, Dan Petcash, George Tinsley, and Hakon Hjalmarsson will compete for minutes in the backcourt. Besselink and Petcash appear to be in the best position to earn major minutes.

Binghamton largely ignored the post last season and will likely do the same in 2019-20. Monmouth transfer Pierre Sarr should be a regular starter after playing a handful of games for the Hawks over three seasons. Sarr is a good rebounder, gets to the free throw line frequently, and can even step away from the hoop and shoot a bit. A pair of 7-footers, Ador Athuai and Yarden Willis, will compete for time at the 5-spot. Athuai will be a valuable shot-blocking asset with his endless length and mobility. Willis is a burlier center who should be a force on the glass and a brick wall in the paint defensively. If Howard transfer Akuwovo Ogheneyole is eligible, he’ll slot into the starting five. He ranked 2nd in the MEAC last year in OR% and is a certified shot swatter on the defensive end.

Binghamton zoned at the 7th highest rate in the country last season, but it didn’t prevent the Bearcats from finishing dead last in the America East in adjusted defensive efficiency by a significant margin. Dempsey likely keeps his preferred 2-3 zone defense this year, which will almost certainly result in the Bearcats sporting one of the worst defenses in the league. At least the Bearcats should be better on the glass – last season Binghamton was the worst rebounding team in the AEC, something that should be remedied by the arrival of Sarr, Athuai, Willis, and (hopefully) Ogheneyole.

Bottom Line: Binghamton will be one of the worst teams in the country this season despite having one of the brightest young mid-major stars in Sessoms. Offense will be summarized as “watch Sessoms dribble and shoot” while defense will likely continue to be porous and allow far too many clean looks from the outside.