-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Stef Smith, Sr., Vermont
John Becker Coach of the Year Award: John Becker, Vermont (he’s won four in a row - just name it after him please)
Newcomer of the Year: Bernie Andre, Sr., Vermont
Freshman of the Year: Matthew Fleming, Maine

Tier 1

1. Vermont

Key Returners: Stef Smith, Ben Shungu, Ryan Davis, Robin Duncan, Bailey Patella
Key Losses: Anthony Lamb, Everett Duncan, Daniel Giddens
Key Newcomers: Bernie Andre (NAU), Tomas Murphy (Northeastern), Justin Mazzula (George Washington)***, Georges Lefebvre

*** - should be eligible for second semester

Lineup:

Outlook: Vermont has been the class of the America East for essentially the entire 21st century, and John Becker has maintained that excellence over his nine-year tenure at the program’s helm. But the Anthony Lamb era took that success to an entirely new level over the past four years, as the Catamounts accumulated a gaudy 109-28 overall record, including a mind-bending 59-5 (92.2%) in league play. Lamb wasn’t just a big fish in a little pond, he was a great white shark, and Becker’s ability to put quality pieces and a smart system around him made the Cats nearly unbeatable. Lamb is now gone, but with many of those pieces and (perhaps even more importantly) that system still around, Becker and his Catamounts are once again the clear A-East favorite.

The biggest returning weapon is Stef Smith, a prolific perimeter scorer who also took on a larger playmaking role last season. He led the A-East in 3P% in league play (49.4%), and even with some added defensive attention, he’ll continue to be an efficient option. Becker has embraced the deep ball in recent seasons, but Smith is the only true sniper returning to the roster, so the Vermont’s 3PA rate may sink back towards mid-2010’s levels.

The rest of the backcourt is far more focused on creation and defense, most notably Ben Shungu, a powerfully built senior who earned the A-East’s Defensive Player of the Year honor last year. He blankets the opponent’s best perimeter threat, using his strength and quickness to seal off driving lanes and force the ball to secondary players. Albany’s Cam Healy is not having a good time:

Shungu is the rare DPOY recipient who won it mostly for erasing opponents from the face of the earth; he does not have gaudy steal numbers. An injury slowed his offensive development as he missed most of non-conference play, but he performed admirably in a more demanding role, particularly in A-East play, and he should continue to get better this year.

Robin Duncan adds length and is another sound defender, but he’s a far cry from his graduated brother Everett as a shooter and decision-maker, opening the door for Justin Mazzulla and Aaron Deloney to earn significant minutes. Mazzulla will be another outstanding defender for Becker to wield against opposing guards who also adds a dynamic driving element on offense, while Deloney’s play against conference foes (37% from deep, confident playmaking) portends a promising career in green and yellow. Bailey Patella is yet another rangy wing defender, meaning the Catamounts can comfortably go two deep at every spot around the arc.  

The frontcourt is where the defensive questions marks arise (if any such questions actually exist). Lamb and Daniel Giddens were special talents on this end, bringing tremendous size and versatility for their positions. Giddens never blossomed offensively, but opponents shot a frigid 41.1% from inside the arc when the Alabama grad transfer was on the court, per Hoop Lens, fueling a defense that gave up 0.82 points per possession when he played (0.87 PPP without him – still great!). The development of Ryan Davis offensively and the Catamounts’ sound man-to-man scheme made Giddens more of a luxury than a necessity, with the burly Davis eating space in the paint on both ends and making an outstanding 61.6% of his two-point field goals.

Davis and Northeastern transfer Tomas Murphy form an imposing platoon at center, but they’re similar players as largely ground-bound scoring bigs; neither is the kind of defensive presence at the rim as Giddens was. That makes the addition of NAU transfer Bernie Andre crucial; Andre is a bit of a Lamb Lite in his ability to guard multiple positions and dominate the defensive glass. He’ll also be a matchup problem offensively, as he can score inside and out, drawing out slower bigs with the threat of his shot and then blowing by them off the bounce. Becker has plenty of frontcourt depth, as Isaiah Powell and Duncan Demuth can tag in for Andre and Davis/Murphy, respectively.

Bottom Line: Even without Lamb, Becker has a rock-solid core that has won plenty of America East games already, and his continued focus on adding talent paid dividends via Andre and Murphy this offseason. The mass transfer of Stony Brook’s entire starting five gutted the Catamounts’ most likely contender, and while the league does still have some intriguing squads, Vermont is the favorite to once again seize the title and give a high-major foe headaches in March.

Tier 2

2. UMBC

Key Returners: Darnell Rogers (injury), R.J. Eytle-Rock, Brandon Horvath, L.J. Owens, Dimitri Spasojevic, Daniel Akin, Keondre Kennedy
Key Losses: KJ Jackson, Max Curran (transfer), Arkel Lamar (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Szymon Wojcik (JUCO), Jacob Boonyasith (American)***, Matteo Picarelli, Rico Quinton (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: In just four seasons, Ryan Odom has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has terrific coaching chops, even looking beyond the historic upset of Virginia in 2018. Odom won 67 games in his first three seasons at UMBC; for reference, he took over for a team that went 7-25, and the Retrievers had managed just 41 wins combined in the previous seven campaigns. Injuries threw a nearly impossible task at Odom last season, but after a rocky first few months and a 2-6 start to A-East play, he stabilized things en route to salvaging an 8-8 record in the league.

It’s tough to overstate how badly the injury bug thrashed the Retrievers. Three presumed starters (Darnell Rogers, Arkel Lamar, Max Curran) suffered season-ending injuries before December ended. Another starter, K.J. Jackson, missed the first four games, while R.J. Eytle-Rock only played in four of the first 15 contests. Several others were in and out of the lineup, and Odom was forced to use an impossible 12 different starting lineups in the first 15 games before the calendar flipped to 2020 (12 in 15! That’s absurd!). Starting January 8th, he was able to lock into a consistent group, and those Retrievers actually won seven of nine during a strong stretch from late January to late February, a near-Herculean task considering how much adversity the team had faced.

Of course, a long-term side effect of such rotational disarray is experienced depth. Lamar, a hero of the 16-over-1 upset, and Curran both transferred, but a bunch of younger players cut their teeth in bigger minutes last year, and the rest of the roster should be significantly healthier. Rogers will be the maestro, and there’s few things more entertaining than watching the 5’2 dynamo carve his way through defenses and score against much bigger players:

Rogers was scorching as a pick-and-roll operator during his limited UMBC debut, scoring north of 1.2 PPP, per Synergy, and the rest of the spread attack should flourish with its floor general back in charge.

Odom wants to space the court with shooting around the offense’s central action, and he should have the pieces to do that adequately. Eytle-Rock took on more ball-handling duties last year, but he’s best served as a secondary playmaker and shooter, while LJ Owens and Brandon Horvath – the only two Retrievers to appear in every game last year – are both capable shooters themselves. Horvath is particularly valuable thanks to his size (6’10) and ability to compete on the defensive glass. Highly skilled Italian freshman Matteo Picarelli will almost certainly earn some minutes, and if Jacob Boonyasith receives a waiver to play right away, he adds another knockdown perimeter option (37% at American last year).

The offense should be potent, but Odom’s 2018 and 2019 teams won on the defensive end, and the Retrievers simply weren’t able to rely on that end of the court last year given their personnel limitations. The most clear drop-off came in forcing turnovers, particularly in swiping steals (which obviously has an adverse effect on the transition offense, as well):

Rogers is a lightning-quick defender on the ball, and Eytle-Rock and Keondre Kennedy have the size and athletic abilities to be impactful defenders, as well. The biggest benefit will come from simply having depth, though, as the team’s primary guards were forced into heavy minutes loads.

Horvath has plenty of help in the paint, as the big man duo of Daniel Akin and Dimitrje Spasojevic returns. Akin is the defensive side of the coin, a terrific rebounder and active big man, while Spasojevic is a powerful finisher at the rim. The Retrievers also welcome additional size in the form of JUCO transfers Szymon Wojcik and Rico Quinton, both of whom had stops at D-I programs prior to last year; Wojcik started at Missouri State, while Quinton had a cup of coffee at East Carolina as Spasojevic’s teammate. Wojcik adds another big man who can stretch the floor, while Quinton might be the team’s only pure center. The entire group will be counted on to restore UMBC’s defensive rebounding rate back up to elite levels after falling from 22nd to 152nd last year.

Bottom Line: In a normal season setting, I’d fully expect Odom to get back to the 20-win plateau, but this year’s shortened schedule may limit that possibility. Still, with Rogers back, UMBC will be more dynamic on both ends of the court, and the (much) healthier roster should up the consistency, as well. The Retrievers will need jumps from Kennedy, Owens, and Eytle-Rock to truly challenge Vermont for A-East supremacy, but they’re plenty capable of tucking in right behind the Catamounts either way.

3. Albany

Key Returners: Cameron Healy, Antonio Rizzuto, Trey Hutcheson, Adam Lulka, Brett Hank
Key Losses: Ahmad Clark, Romani Hansen, Malachi de Sousa (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Chuck Champion (Loyola MD), Kellon Taylor (Duquesne), CJ Kelly (Norfolk St.), Jamel Horton (JUCO), Will Amica, Jarvis Doles (Drexel)

Lineup:

Outlook: From 2012-2018, Coach Will Brown’s Great Danes had a run of seven straight seasons where they finished inside of KenPom’s top 200, a stretch that also featured three straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 2013-2015. The last two years, though, have been a struggle: ranked 279th and 282nd in KenPom, 26-38 overall, 14-18 in America East play. Long a competitor atop the league under Brown, Albany seems to have crashed down badly in the past two seasons. Why the swoon?

An overly simplified answer is that the offense has tanked badly, finishing 285th and 316th the past two year’s in KenPom’s AdjOE, as Brown’s spread pick-and-roll scheme has become far more perimeter-oriented over that span, struggling to get to the rim for easy buckets – and finishing poorly on the occasions the Danes did get there (320th in FG% at the rim, per Hoop Math).

It’s crucial to acknowledge how beat up Albany was last year, though. Key forward Adam Lulka missed 13 games, and although the rest of the rotation didn’t fully miss many games, nearly every single player was dealing with some sort of ailment (or multiple ailments):

With (starting guard Cam) Healy ailing, the Danes have all of their starters playing through various ailments. Senior Ahmad Clark (back, knee, leg) is the team leader in ice bags, but sophomores Malachi de Sousa (ankle, knee) and Brent Hank (knee) and freshman Trey Hutcheson (ankle, back) also have played through injuries…UAlbany has had every man in its nine-player rotation except senior forwards Kendall Lauderdale and Romani Hansen miss practice time because of injuries.

Because of this, players’ minutes totals varied wildly, and Brown ended up using 12 different starting lineups throughout the year, demonstrating the constant scramble to piece together the proper rotation in the face of so many bumps and bruises.

Cam Healy will be vital this season; with Clark’s graduation, he becomes the team’s de facto point guard and pick-and-roll maestro in Brown’s scheme. The Australian is a heady player and excels at feeding the roll man, but he’s more comfortable as an off-ball sniper, a role in which he thrived as a freshman in 2018-19. The injuries clearly impacted him; his 3P% fell from 42% in A-East play as a freshman to just 30.5% last year. Like Healy, Trey Hutcheson and Antonio Rizzuto are both more spot up shooters than creators, although Rizzuto did show some playmaking ability as a sophomore. All three need to continue to grow their games to take advantage of defenses who close out too hard against them.

If Brown wants to keep that trio off the ball, he will need contributions from JoJo Anderson, a former Northern Arizona transfer who appeared in just six games last year while trying to return from surgery on a torn meniscus, and freshman Will Amica, a compact scorer with promising vision. Anderson’s absence was noticeable, particularly based on this Brown quote from a year ago (given to Blue Ribbon):

One of the things that we struggled with last year (in 2018-19) is having enough guys that can really break the defense down consistently off the dribble. I think that’s something that JoJo can provide for us.

A healthy Anderson would likely be given the starting spot, with Amica coming off the bench as a spark plug. Brown also added reinforcements on the wing to supplement the Healy/Hutcheson duo. Chuck Champion has a terrific name, and he should fill a role as a longer defender, while JUCO import Jamel Horton and Norfolk State transfer CJ Kelly should add some offensive pop. Horton is another candidate to earn some minutes at point guard.

Still, Brown’s best teams were outstanding in the paint – guys like Sam Rowley and Greg Stire gave the attack real heft inside, eating on the offensive glass and clearing driving lanes for the slashing guards. Lulka’s extended absence really hurt here, as he proved to be an outstanding rebounder and finisher in 2018-19; his return to health will be pivotal. Brett Hank started 24 games but did not play big minutes, and transfers Jarvis Doles and Kellon Taylor may relegate the Australian big man to spot duty. Doles’ potential as a shot-blocker and rim-runner is especially intriguing for a team that utterly lacked both qualities last year.

Bottom Line: Context matters when viewing a team’s struggles, and the nicked-up nature of Albany’s entire roster offers a reasonable explanation for why the Great Danes underperformed expectations last year (picked 4th in the preseason coach’s poll, finished 7th). Losing Clark hurts, but the impressive transfer class should make up for his absence, and if Albany can manage to avoid the injury bug, a major surge back up the standings would not surprise me in the least.

Tier 3

4. New Hampshire

Key Returners: Sean Sutherlin, Nick Guadarrama, Josh Hopkins, Marque Maultsby,  Jayden Martinez, Chris Lester, Blondeau Tchoukuiengo (injury redshirt)
Key Losses: Mark Carbone
Key Newcomers: K.J. McClurg, Nick Johnson (redshirt), Tayler Mattos (Bowling Green)***, Qon Murphy (Houston Baptist)***

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a disastrous 2018-19, expectations were extremely low for New Hampshire last year. America East coaches voted the Wildcats dead last in the league’s preseason poll (quick humblebrag – my colleague Ky correctly pegged Binghamton as the true last place finisher), and a team full of sophomores and juniors seemed to be a year away from pushing up the standings. Bill Herrion was having none of it, though, telling Blue Ribbon, “I think we can climb, I really do.” And right he was!

The Wildcats clawed their way to 8-8 in the league, grinding out victories via a physical defense that dominated the glass. Herrion’s teams are always terrific in that department, and with everyone back from last year’s roster, that’s almost certain to continue. Sean Sutherlin ranked 3rd in the conference in defensive rebound rate, and Jayden Martinez wasn’t far behind (11th). If Tayler Mattos receives a waiver, the former MAC big man would further fortify the Wildcats’ terrific interior defense, giving them more of a shot-blocker with true size at 6’11 and another dominant rebounder.

Herrion played man-to-man on over 99% of possessions last year, ensuring his team had clear block out assignments, and the scheme did a great job of consistently challenging shots. Fifth-year senior Chris Lester made the A-East All-Defensive team last year, and his versatility and strength at 6’6, 225 lbs. allows him to guard a wide variety of foes. His impact (on both ends) is clear from Hoop Lens’ on/off numbers:

The easiest route to scoring against New Hampshire is at the free throw line. Herrion’s teams are mega-prone to fouling due to their aggressive nature, so disciplined teams that take care of the ball can often earn free points.

That inverse of that issue shows up on the offensive end, where New Hampshire’s attack consistently fails to get to the charity stripe. UNH ranked 325th last year in free throw rate, and while that was an improvement from the ’18-19 team that finished 353rd (dead last), it still puts the Wildcats in a mathematical hole from the jump of each game. In A-East play, UNH shot 234 free throws, while its opponents attempted 362, a massive gap.

Herrion ran a variety of sets aimed at getting his skilled forwards the ball in advantageous positions, whether that be in the post or attacking closeouts from the perimeter. Sutherlin is the only unwilling shooter form beyond the arc, and he’s adept at attacking the gaps opened by having multiple shooters dotting the floor. Unfortunately, turnovers and missed free throws sapped his efficiency. Nick Guadarrama was the team’s best offensive player, a thick king who used his broad frame to bully smaller opponents and his off-the-bounce game to attack smaller ones.

The backcourt lacks offensive pop, particularly with gunner Mark Carbone gone, so rookies Nick Johnson, a gritty scorer from the Bronx who missed last year with injury, and K.J. McClurg, a promising talent from West Virginia, will have chances to earn minutes. Blondeau Tchoukuiengo flashed some promise as a multi-level scorer in fives games before rupturing his patella tendon, and if he’s fully healthy, he’ll bring some confidence off the bench. A waiver for Qon Murphy would also add some shooting, though Murphy has a lot of learning to do on the defensive end after being a part of Houston Baptist’s turnstile scheme last year. Incumbents Marque Maultsby and Josh Hopkins will retain their starting roles, but both players need to shoot it better for UNH to hit its ceiling (35.9% and 33.7% from the field, respectively – yuck).

Bottom Line: The Wildcats’ stout defensive scheme and roster continuity should establish a floor around the middle of the A-East standings, but any upward movement requires major strides on the offensive end from Sutherlin and the guards. Herrion’s teams always struggle to put the biscuit in the basket, though, so don’t expect anything drastic in that department. UNH will be a pain the ass to play against, but I don’t envision them getting higher than 3rd, Herrion’s best A-East finish in 15 years at the school.

5. NJIT

Key Returners: Zach Cooks, San Antonio Brinson, Souleymane Diakite, Kjell de Graaf, Diego Willis
Key Losses: Shyquan Gibbs, Reilly Walsh
Key Newcomers: Dylan O’Hearn (JUCO), Miles Coleman (JUCO), Da’mir Faison (redshirt), Mekhi Gray, Jason Murphy (redshirt), Adetokunbo Bakare, Antwuan Butler (Austin Peay)***

Lineup:

Outlook: NJIT being in the Atlantic Sun never made sense. The closest school (Lipscomb) was over 850 miles away, and especially in a COVID world and the New Jersey quarantine rules, playing that schedule would have been a mega headache at best, a near impossibility at worst. Fortunately, the Highlanders were able to make the logical shift into a more regional league, and the farthest school (Maine) is now just over 450 miles away. Obviously, that’s a massive geographical win, and it should be a snug competitive fit, as well.

It certainly helps to have a star of Zach Cooks’ caliber around to help with the transition. Cooks is a 5’10 pure scorer, ranking 68th nationally in usage and 9th in percentage of minutes played. Most of the offense was set up to put him in advantageous situations, either via handoffs or simply isolating him and letting him use his quickness to attack one-on-one. In the rare instances where he went to the bench, the Highlanders instantly morphed into a dumpster fire on both ends of the court:

NJIT ranked a dismal 301st in assist rate, and Cooks was probably the best creator on the team, despite that not being his natural role. For that reason, a waiver for Antwuan Butler would be massive, as the former Austin Peay guard is a much more natural point man who can keep Cooks off the ball and focused on scoring.

Graduated wings Shyquan Gibbs and Reilly Walsh were both low-usage spot up shooters, and Walsh’s painfully awful slump (34.6% from the field, 20.7% from deep) made it easy to send a second defender at Cooks. Reserve Diego Willis should step into a starting role, but he wasn’t much better, and the team’s collective shooting collapse was the primary culprit behind a 113-spot KenPom drop from 2019 to 2020:

Coach Brian Kennedy will be banking on contributions from his newcomers, most notably JUCO transfers Dylan O’Hearn and Miles Coleman and true frosh Mekhi Gray. O’Hearn was an efficient 23.1 PPG scorer in junior college (against admittedly soft competition), while Coleman should be a matchup problem thanks to his combination of size and shooting. Gray hails from powerhouse Putnam Science Academy, where he may have been overshadowed by the eight (8!) other D-I commits on the roster.

The most efficient shooter was actually forward San Antonio Brinson, a multi-year starter and valuable asset as a floor spacer. Brinson can have some monster games, including putting up 37 points on North Florida in mid-January, but he does struggle with consistency at times, which often put even more of a burden on Cooks. The center rotation of Souleymane Diakite, Xavier Mayo, and Kjell de Graaf all return, as well, with Diakite and Mayo excelling as paint enforcers on the glass and at the rim, while de Graaf offers more shooting. Da’mir Faison, who missed all of last year with an injury, could make some noise now that he’s healthy, as well.

Bottom Line: NJIT may not immediately challenge Vermont atop the A-East, but settling into a more comfortable conference fit is unquestionably a massive win for the program. Having a star like Cooks gives the Highlanders a chance to compete right away, too. Just how competitive they’ll be depends on the contributions of the incoming guards (local recruit Adetokunbo “Tokes” Bakare warrants mention with O’Hearn and Gray) and whether the interior players can finish more effectively inside; per Hoop Math, NJIT ranked 350th in FG% at the rim. Middle of the pack feels like the most reasonable outcome.

6. Stony Brook

Key Returners: Mouhamadou Gueye, Tyler Stephenson-Moore
Key Losses: Elijah Olaniyi (transfer), Andrew Garcia (grad transfer), Makale Foreman (grad transfer), Miles Latimer (transfer), Jeff Otchere (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Juan Felix Rodriguez (JUCO), Tykei Greene (Manhattan), Frankie Policelli (Dayton), Omar Habwe (Mount St. Mary’s), Juwan White (JUCO), Mohamed Diallo (JUCO), Leighton Elliott-Sewell (JUCO), Jaden Sayles (Akron)***

Lineup:

Outlook: I absolutely should not do this, but I’m going to draw a (very basic) mini-parallel between Stony Brook and…the Bible. Stay with me! The first book in the Bible is, unsurprisingly, Genesis – the beginning. Last year was the genesis of Geno Ford’s regime in Stony Brook, and it began quite well. Ford and the Seawolves amassed 20 wins overall, had the 2nd-best defense in the league, and were set to return essentially the entire roster for an America East title run. But the second book in the Bible is…Exodus, and unfortunately for Ford, that’s exactly what this offseason became.

Five players transferred, a group that combined to make 143 of the Seawolves’ 165 starts last year. Those five were responsible for 77.9% of Stony Brook’s scoring, 64.8% of its rebounds, and 67.9% of its assists. It’s one thing to lose that kind of production to graduation, when Ford could have recruited accordingly, but losing them all in a relatively unexpected fashion left him scrambling to find replacements. One small solace: the departing players quashed any rumors of locker room issues, instead citing a domino effect (once one left, the rest felt empowered to do so) and opportunities to play at bigger programs.

Ford did end up securing some big wins on the recruiting trail, most notably transfers Tykei Greene and Omar Habwe and JUCO guard Juan Felix Rodriguez, all of whom should play key roles for a revamped Seawolves roster. That also means Dayton transfer Frankie Policelli won’t have such a massive burden after expecting to be a complementary piece to the veteran core.

The key will be getting all of the new pieces to join shot-blocker Mouhamadou Gueye in rebuilding last year’s excellent defense. The Seawolves ranked 9th nationally in 2P% defense, making the rim and the mid-range equally miserable places from which to score. Gueye platooned at center with Jeff Otchere last year, but with the latter now off to UT Rio Grande Valley, Gueye ascends into an even larger role, and having his 9.1% block rate (37th nationally) is a great cornerstone. Akron transfer Jaden Sayles received a waiver from the NCAA, and he’ll function as the Otchere plug-in. Ford’s defense can be beaten from beyond the arc, though.

The offense looks like more of a mess at this point. Stony Brook suffered from a bit of “my turn, your turn” syndrome last year among the skilled group of guards, and that suboptimal shot selection plus sloppy ball-handling led to a disappointing attack, despite impressive talent. The Seawolves lacked a true pass-first point guard, which should make Rodriguez a welcome addition. Greene played for one of the worst offenses in the country last year, but he is a strong slasher who can put pressure on smaller guards, and Habwe is a bigger wing who can space the floor. Tyler Stephenson-Moore looked promising in limited minutes last year as a freshman, and he should emerge into a weapon in a bigger role, as well.

Several other JUCO transfers will vie for minutes, and Leighton Elliott-Sewell’s maniacal rebounding (10.2 per game) should quickly endear himself to his hardnosed coach. Juwan White provides shooting depth, while Mohamed Diallo adds defensive versatility.

Bottom Line: What should have been a culmination season with a senior-laden roster that could have led to an NCAA Tournament bid instead has turned into an almost clean slate for Ford’s second year. He had to quickly fill some roster spots, but the Seawolves should be stout enough defensively to remain competitive, and the crop of transfers has enough talent to stay in the top half if things break right. The question marks offensively drag Stony Brook down for me, so 6th feels like a comfortable prediction.  

7. UMass Lowell

Key Returners: Obadiah Noel, Connor Withers, Ron Mitchell, Bryce Daley (injury), Allin Blut, Kalil Thomas
Key Losses: Christian Lutete, Josh Gantz, Jordyn Owens
Key Newcomers: Charlie Russell (Tulane), Darion Jordan-Thomas (Wagner), Salif Boudie (Arkansas St.), Caleb Bates, Max Brooks, Richie Greaves, Gregory Hammond (Rhode Island)***

Lineup:

Outlook: You have to admire UMass Lowell’s consistency since arriving at the Division I level back in 2013-14. In all seven seasons (all under Coach Pat Duquette), the River Hawks have won between 10 and 15 games, lost between 17 and 20 games, and ranged between 5-11 and 8-8 in America East play. They’ll compete, but they ultimately haven’t shown the ability to break through into the league’s upper half and finish above .500. This year looks like another chapter in that saga, albeit with some upside if an athletic batch of newcomers can infuse some additional upside.

Duquette’s offense is one of the most pick-and-roll-dominant schemes in the country, putting the ball in the hands of his perimeter playmakers and letting them get downhill towards the basket. Per Synergy, the River Hawks ranked 7th in the entire country in pick-and-roll frequency, running some variation of the action on almost 38% of possessions. That helped them take 43.6% of their shots at the rim, the 27th-highest rate in the entire country. After two tremendously efficient systems as a multi-level scorer, losing Christian Lutete hurts quite a bit, but Duquette still has an intriguing backcourt featuring a trio of players who can initiate the attack.

Obadiah Noel is the star, a lanky guard who has started 62 of Lowell’s 64 games over the past two years. Like Lutete, he can score inside or out, capable of finishing over size or stopping on a dime to bury a pull-up jumper. He’ll be joined by Ron Mitchell and Bryce Daley, each of whom have gotten reps as the River Hawks’ starting point guard. Daley missed all of 2019-20 with injury, but he should be ready for this season, and Duquette will hope to see a significant jump in efficiency in both players’ second college seasons. All three guards stand at least 6’3, which makes playing them all together more tenable, as well. Depth behind them is iffy – it’s basically unproven sophomore Kalil Thomas and freshman Richie Greaves – but a waiver for Rhode Island transfer wing Gregory Hammond would go a long way towards easing those concerns.

The Lowell offense also uses the screener quite a bit, whether that be via pick-and-pops or taking advantage of sloppy rotations and hitting the roller for a lay-up. Connor Withers is thin for a post player, but he can knock down an open triple and takes smart angles to the basket. Incoming Arkansas St. transfer Salif Boudie adds a more physical element to the system, likely taking over for the graduated Josh Gantz, and he’s adept at using his frame to finish around the rim. Allin Blunt will reprise his role as a reserve big man, but the frontcourt’s upside comes from Charlie Russell (Hammond’s high school teammate) and Darion Jordan-Thomas, both of whom received waivers to play immediately. Russell should have a major impact with his bounce in the paint, giving the guards a true lob threat out of the PnR, and he has a burgeoning perimeter stroke as well.

The offense hasn’t been the problem for Duquette, though. The defense, particularly in the paint, has been a waking nightmare for seven years running, and the onus will be on Boudie and Russell to pick up the pieces:

Both newcomers had a higher block rate at their previous stops than anyone on UMass Lowell’s roster last year, so they could have an immense impact. Hammond and Thomas provide some additional length on the wing, as well.

Bottom Line: The River Hawks have struggled to break through the glass ceiling of mediocrity so far, but with an infusion of size and athleticism via the transfer wire, they could sneak into the top half of the conference this year. Solving the defensive conundrum is crucial, as is the progress of Daley and Mitchell in the backcourt. Duquette’s offense will consistently generate quality shots, so that (and the presence of Noel) should set a solid floor, but the ceiling hinges on how big an impact Boudie, Russell, and Jordan-Thomas can have in the paint.

8. Hartford

Key Returners: Hunter Marks, Moses Flowers, Miroslav Stafl, D.J. Mitchell, PJ Henry
Key Losses: Malik Ellison, Traci Carter, Romain Boxus
Key Newcomers: Austin Williams (Marist), Briggs McClain, AJ Gray, Thomas Webley, Rastislav Sipkovsky, Jakub Dombek (Colorado)***

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year was a major question mark for the Hawks. Coach John Gallagher lost one of the most productive senior classes in school history, a group that included all five starters and Hartford’s sixth man. Talent-wise, Gallagher did a tremendous job of reloading, but the entirely new roster (351st nationally in continuity) didn’t always blend together perfectly, leading to an up-and-down regular season (16-15 overall, 9-7 in conference play). The Hawks were actually flying high to end the year – they had a date with Vermont in the America East championship game – but they would have been heavy underdogs in taking on the first place Catamounts.

Hartford returns five of its top seven scorers, so optimism is certainly an acceptable outlook on this year, but the Hawks will be without star wing Malik Ellison and floor general Traci Carter, two former Power 6 recruits who tore up the league after transferring down. Ellison ranked 3rd in the league in per game scoring and 1st in rebounds, while Carter led the conference in assists and steals – that’s a pretty terrific duo. Most of the offense revolved around their talents, whether it be via Ellison as a mismatch scorer with his size and ball skills, Carter’s deft pick-and-roll distribution, or both players’ tremendous abilities in transition.

Without them, a promising sophomore class must now rise into more prominent roles. Moses Flowers was primarily a spot up threat last year, but he’ll get to show off his dribble drive game this year, and Gallagher will feed center Miroslav Stafl a steady diet of post ups, as well. The key for Stafl is to understand his game – he shot a horrendous 8/50 from deep against D-I competition last year, completely undermining his efficient interior play. Lastly, tiny speedster PJ Henry takes the reins at point guard, and like his predecessor, he can be a pest on defense and a blur in the open floor:

Henry still needs to refine his game in the half court to transform into a solid starter, though. He struggled shooting the ball and had almost as many turnovers (22) as assists (25).

None of those three is the Hawks’ leading returning scorer, though – that would be Hunter Marks, a spindly Australian forward with a potent outside shooting stroke and an even better pump-and-go game. He was also deadly as a pick-and-pop partner for Carter, and having that option should open the court up for Henry. Marist transfer Austin Williams and freshman AJ Gray add some offensive punch, and likely sixth man D.J. Mitchell adds a steadying, consistent presence off the bench after shooting a healthy 38% from downtown last year.   

The Hawks’ defense was their calling card last year, ranking 3rd in the America East in AdjDE and 144th nationally, the second-best finish of Gallagher’s 10-year tenure (say “10-year tenure” 10 times fast). Opponents shot just 27.2% from deep, the lowest percentage in the entire country, and that number dropped even further to 25.2% in A-East play. That sets off our “regression to the mean” alarms, especially factoring in the loss of a tremendous on-ball defender in Carter and a versatile athlete in Ellison on the perimeter. Stafl and Marks don’t offer much in the way of rim protection, so Gallagher will hope to get a waiver for 6’11 Czech big man Jakub Dombek, previously a walk-on at Colorado. Otherwise, expect to see Gallagher go zone quite a bit, exposing the team’s traditionally weak defensive rebounding.

Bottom Line: It’s not the same kind of wholescale restart as last year, but losing two weapons like Carter and Ellison significantly alters the Hawks’ makeup. A lot hinges on Henry at the point guard spot: if he can find a way to be more efficient while using his lightning quickness to set up the team’s scorers, then the Hawks’ could be fine offensively. The defense will almost certainly regress, so Gallagher will need to see that offensive development to remain in the upper half of the league.

Tier 4

9. Maine

Key Returners: Nedeljko Prijovic, Vilgot Larsson, Mykhailo Yagodin, Stephane Ingo, Ja’Shonte Wright-McLeish
Key Losses: Andrew Fleming, Sergio El Darwich
Key Newcomers: FoFo Adetogun (Kansas City), Matthew Fleming, Randell Wiel, Ata Turgut

Lineup:

Outlook: At Maine, winning – and even competing – is hard. Since 2000, the program has had three times as many seasons with single-digit wins (nine) as it has had years over .500 (three). The Black Bears haven’t won 10+ games since 2012-13, and they haven’t finished over .500 in conference play since 2010-11, streaks that span the tenures of three different coaches. Current boss Richard Barron managed a 9-22 record last year, though, and his unique stylistic choices have given Maine a chance to compete, at the very least.  

Barron knows his roster is constantly at a talent disadvantage, so he emphasizes execution on offense and confusion on defense, doing his best to maximize the players on his roster. He slows the game down to a crawl, minimizing possessions and forcing foes to break down a structured half court defense that encourages jump shots. Barron mixes in zone looks to break up opponent’s rhythm, counting on those curveballs to disrupt what otherwise would be a parade of open jump shots from the outside.

It helps to have a shot-blocking presence in Stephane Ingo clogging the lane, a rising sophomore who came on during America East play. With him on the court, Maine allowed 0.89 points per possession, compared to 1.04 PPP when he sat, with the gap in 2P% defense being the obvious differentiator. Guards FoFo Adetogun and Ja’Shonte Wright-McLeish could also form a formidable backcourt duo on this end; Adetogun is a powerfully-built lead guard who hound opposing ball-handlers, while Wright-McLeish has the length and anticipation to disrupt passing lanes.

Offensively, Barron’s motion attack tries to slot his players in spots to attack off movement, ranking highly in frequency of handoffs, cuts, and off-ball screens. The trade-off is a complete abandonment of pick-and-rolls, an acknowledgement by Barron that his team lacks the kind of individual creators to bend defenses off the dribble:

Unsurprisingly, the Black Bears ranked 8th nationally in assist rate, relying on player and ball movement to create shots. Both Andrew Fleming and Sergio El Darwich, the team’s primary scorers, graduated this offseason, so finding points may be a struggle.

Nedeljko Prijovic and Vilgot Larsson are both versatile forwards who can score in multiple ways, although Prijovic was clearly the more talented offensive weapon. Wings Mykhailo Yagodin and Randell Wiel can stretch the floor around the team’s constant motion. Adetogun should replicate some of El Darwich’s output, and LeChaun Duhart adds a faster, quick-trigger option who has a pure shooting stroke.

The ultimate key to a non-disastrous offense, though, may end up being Matthew Fleming, Andrew’s younger brother. The younger Fleming won Maine’s Gatorade Player of the Year in 2018-19 before leaving the state for his senior year, and he possesses his brother’s versatile inside-out game, which should make him a snug fit in Barron’s system.

Fleming was a huge recruiting get for the program, and he and Duhart are the only American-born players on the roster. Knowing how difficult it is to draw players to Maine, Barron has cast a wide net, giving international players a chance at Division I hoops while hoping to unearth a diamond or two in the rough. Just look at this map of the players’ origins:

Three Canadians, two Serbians, plus players from Latvia, The Netherlands, England, Sweden, Turkey, and the Ukraine…the Black Bears are a veritable “where in the world is Carmen Sandiego?” of a roster. Getting all of those international pieces to mold together will consistently be one of Barron’s chief challenges.

Bottom Line: The Black Bears’ future looks bright after a massive $90M gift to the athletics department, an initiative that should finally lead to an adequate on-campus arena. In the short-term, though, climbing up to double-digit wins could be tough without El Darwich and the elder Fleming. You know Maine is going to force opponents to grind out wins, and Richard Barron’s team is always worth a look in the first half thanks to his clever game plans and mix of junk defenses. Athleticism and overall talent may be a restraint on the win/loss column, but the Black Bears are in good hands on the sideline as they venture into a new era of Maine athletics.  

10. Binghamton

Key Returners: George Tinsley, Brenton Mills, Hakon Hjalmarsson, Thomas Bruce (injury), Dan Petcash
Key Losses: Sam Sessoms (transfer), Pierre Sarr, Richard Caldwell
Key Newcomers: Hunter Crist (Green Bay), Ogheneyole Akuwovo (Howard), Tyler Bertram (Charlotte), Bryce Beamer (JUCO), Kellen Amos, Christian Hinckson (Manhattan)***

Lineup:

Outlook: A three-game stretch early last year in which Binghamton beat Sacred Heart, won at NJIT, and then spanked Army had us second-guessing our annual “Binghamton is bad” narrative. Sam Sessoms (25 PPG, 6 APG in that stretch) was single-handedly turning the Bearcats into a respectable outfit, and young talent on the wings offered tangible upside. It didn’t last, though, as the Bearcats eventually sank to the cellar of the America East, both in the standings and in KenPom ranking. Sessoms transferred to Penn State this offseason, undermining that resurgence and robbing Coach Tommy Dempsey of his best player.

Dempsey completely restructured his offense to feature Sessoms over the last two years, allowing his star lead guard to attack off the bounce and draw multiple defenders, opening up shots for his teammates. Synergy’s play type data shows a clear demarcation when Sessoms arrived on campus:

Without him, Dempsey may have to revert to his more post-heavy offenses of the past unless transfers Hunter Crist and Tyler Bertram prove capable of filling that role. Crist is the more natural point guard, and the grad transfer offers some experience, but he’s simply not as dynamic as Sessoms was. Bertram is more comfortable as a shooter, but he and Hakon Hjalmarsson may be forced to handle the rock at times.

If Dempsey does return to a more post-focused attack, he can do so comfortably knowing he has a two-headed monster at center. Thomas Bruce missed the last two years due to complications from concussions, but he’s a load on the block, and the former DeMatha Catholic product is also one of the best shot-blockers and defensive rebounders in the conference. Ogheneyole Akuwovo also sat out last year after transferring from Howard, and he slots in well as a Bruce’s backup and protégé in the paint.

Dempsey made a concerted effort to load the court with shooting around Sessoms, so the floor spacing should be solid regardless of how the offense operates. George Tinsley won the league’s Rookie of the Year last season, showing a versatile repertoire and a feistiness on the glass, and fellow All-Rookie team member Brenton Mills is a skilled shooter, as well. Bryce Beamer played a small role for an excellent JUCO program last year, but his size and shooting ability make him another intriguing weapon. Bertram, Dan Petcash, and coach’s son Tommy Dempsey offer further options from beyond the arc, but the real difference-maker would be a waiver for Manhattan transfer Christian Hinckson. Hinckson is similar to Tinsley: a big, rangy wing who can dominate defensively, knock down perimeter shots, and impose his will on the glass.

Last year was the worst defense Dempsey has had since arriving in New York (eight years), but the additions of Bruce and Akuwovo should help fix the leaky 2P% defense and allow the guards to be more aggressive. Dempsey will mix in quite a bit of zone, and if Hinckson and Tinsley are roaming on the wings, the Bearcats could get downright frisky on this end.

Bottom Line: Dempsey has accumulated a dismal 67-180 overall record at Binghamton (29-99 in American East play), never finishing better than 12-20 overall or 5-11 in the league, so it’s hard to expect too much out of this squad. Still, the sophomore duo of Tinsley and Mills lends hope for the future, and the defensive triumvirate of Bruce, Akuwovo, and Hinckson (if eligible) would provide a nice boost on that end. The Bearcats sit last in our preseason projections, but there’s some intrigue here, at least.