-Jim Root

NOTE: Since this preview was published, Nimari Burnett tore his ACL and will miss the entire season. That knocks the Tide incrementally downward, as backcourt depth is important in Nate Oats’ system.

Key Returners: Jaden Shackelford, Keon Ellis, Jahvon Quinerly, Juwan Gary, Alex Tchikou (injury)
Key Losses: Josh Primo (pro), Herb Jones, John Petty, Alex Reese, Jordan Bruner
Key Newcomers: JD Davison, Noah Gurley (Furman), Nimari Burnett (Texas Tech), Charles Bediako, Jusaun Holt

Lineup:

*** - James Rojas will likely miss the season with a torn ACL

Outlook: As one of the loudest drumbeaters for the Nate Oats + Alabama basketball parade, last year was a combination of both enormous gratification and, perhaps to an even larger extent, tremendous relief. After the Tide’s shaky performance in Maui East and subsequent losses to Clemson and Western Kentucky, it seemed I had once again whiffed on my claims of Alabama’s arrival. So the 10-game winning streak that followed – which included demolitions of tournament teams like Florida (won by 15), Arkansas (31), and LSU (30) – was as much of a “phew” moment as it was a triumph.

That likely was not the case for those within the program, as Oats’ constant confidence portended the massive leap that the program took during his second season in charge. The pieces fit together, the players bought into the high-energy, up-tempo style, and the Tide ended up winning both the SEC regular season crown (easily) and the SEC Tournament championship (not so easily) en route to the Tide’s first Sweet 16 apperance since 2004. A dreadful shooting night from deep and the free throw line doomed Alabama against red hot UCLA, but that does not take the luster off what was clearly a breakthrough year for the program.

What I did not expect – and perhaps not even Oats saw this part coming – was that the turning of the Tide came via an elite defense that consistently frustrated opponents into poor shooting nights and sloppy turnovers. Alabama’s defense rose from 114th to 3rd in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, exhibiting the exceedingly rare combination of hyper-fast tempo + elite points per possession defense.

The natural inclination is to expect some regression on that end following the loss of Herb Jones, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, and fellow lineup mainstays Jordan Bruner and John Petty. But though Jones was very clearly a weapon on that end, his frequent replacement, redshirt freshman Juwan Gary, is quite the defensive demon himself. The on/off splits certainly are kind to Gary:

Of course, there’s some beneficial shooting numbers in those Gary splits, and the defense thrived more as a result of the team’s collective length and effort than any one individual (all the more reason to think it won’t fall off a cliff without Jones). Keon Ellis gives Oats another lanky wing defender to go with Gary, and the addition of Nimari Burnett adds another option to help replace Petty and Josh Primo.

The perimeter group may be a little smaller with more minutes for Jahvon Quinerly and incoming guard dynamo JD Davison, so expect the Tide’s defensive 3P% to regress some (29.1% last year, 10th in the country), but as long as the commitment to rotations and close-outs remains, Alabama will continue to be formidable.

Big men like Bruner and Alex Reese – guys that can guard multiple positions while still adding value on the boards and stretching the defense on the offensive end – are also paramount to the Oats philosophy, and nabbing Noah Gurley from the transfer portal is a perfect addition. He can defend multiple positions while also being bothersome at the rim, though he’ll be a little undersized against more bruising centers if that’s where Oats choose to play him. Young big men Charles Bediako, a top 40 recruit, and French redshirt Alex Tchikou offer copious upside with true center size/length, but both are somewhat raw and may not be immediately ready to contribute for long stretches (Tchikou missed last season after tearing an Achilles). Plus, neither is a proven perimeter threat like Gurley. The energetic but undersized Keon Ambrose-Hylton will need to provide some minutes if neither youngster is ready right away, especially with James Rojas having torn an ACL during the offseason (Rojas might play later in the season, per reports, but that is dicey).

Notice in the above on/off splits that Alabama actually suffered on the offensive end without Jones. He was a tremendous driver and finisher, capable of using his length to beat smaller defenders and his quickness to get by forwards. That kind of “beat the man in front of you” ability is pivotal to the way Oats wants to generate shots.

Winning in isolation forces help, and the Alabama offense is an absolutely devastating machine when it can repeatedly drive and kick against scrambling defenses. Oats employed one of the highest rates of isolation in the country last year, picking on mismatches to put foes in uncomfortable positions: per Synergy, nearly 12% of the Tide’s possessions included a strict iso, the 8th-highest rate in the country.

To that end, Oats has an electric group of perimeter players, all of whom are capable of getting into the paint, finding open shooters, or hitting open shots themselves. Chief among these weapons are Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford, a smooth southpaw and the team’s leading returning scorer. Quinerly was arguably the team’s best offensive player down the stretch last year, entering the game as a 6th man and immediately confounding defenses. Both guys have an arsenal of dribble moves with which to get by defenders, with Quinerly being downright magical at times in a system that truly fits his talents:

That crossover into a one-hand, wrong foot finish is beautiful.

Shackelford is more of a bomber from beyond the arc, and the smooth lefty is a perfect fit in Oats’ attack thanks to his limitless range and quick release. He flirted with the transfer portal this offseason, but he ultimately returned to Tuscaloosa - a wise choice in our eyes, considering how snugly the system fits his game.

In addition to those two, Davison is a certified athletic dynamo, playing the game above the rim in a way that few other 6’2 players can. He also has plenty of sauce off the dribble, and his abilities to finish at the tin and play in transition must have Oats drooling.

The rest of the roster is flush with complementary scoring options. Gurley can spread the floor from the frontcourt, with Oats likely empowering him to take well above the 112 attempts he put up last year. Ellis shot over 38% from deep last year, and he has flashed some skill with the ball in his hands after initially being recruited as a combo guard. Burnett is yet another viable piece; although he never got comfortable at Texas Tech, he can get buckets from all over the floor and plays with an incredibly high IQ.

Discussing Alabama’s offensive approach without mentioning the aversion to the mid-range would be malpractice, so let’s cover that before the bell rings. Oats is not altogether opposed to two-point jumpers; rather, he simply acknowledges that most players are not proficient enough at them to make the math work. In this CBS Sports article, he makes it clear that if he has a player who can shoot over 50% from the mid-range, then he’ll have the green light. That’s an incredible rarity though, even in the NBA, and Alabama takes the most “rim + threes” in the entire country:

The concern is that the offense can sometimes get stagnant if the opponent has a plethora of plus perimeter defenders (uncommon), and cold shooting nights allow foes to sag into the paint. The Tide need to strive for quality three-point jumpers, rather than just shooting them for the sake of doing so:

Playing the math game helps in the long run, but only if the shots are in rhythm and not heavily contested.

Bottom Line: Alabama has one of the best collections of guards and wings in the country, and for an offensive system hellbent on exploiting individual mismatches, that bodes well for a mini-leap on that end. Losing a two-way linchpin like Herb Jones will inevitably hurt, and the rest of the departures (Primo, Petty, Bruner, Alex Reese) will also be missed, but Oats plugged in even more talent all over the roster. The biggest challenge may be hashing out the right rotations and getting everyone engaged enough on the defensive end, but after what Oats showed last year, that looks like more of a “when” question than an “if.” The ceiling is sky high here – so long as the Tide avoid another ice cold night in March.