ACC Tournament Preview 2020
3MW’s All Conference Team:
Player of the Year: Vernon Carey, Fr., Duke
Coach of the Year: Leonard Hamilton, Florida State
Newcomer of the Year: Vernon Carey, Fr., Duke
Freshman of the Year: Vernon Carey, Fr., Duke
Season Storylines:
The ACC may have had three teams in KenPom’s top 15, but the league was poor overall this season. The conference’s 5th ranked KenPom rating was its worst since expanding to 15 teams in 2014, and its adjusted efficiency margin was its worst since 2013. UNC’s disastrous year helped fan the flames of futility, as the Heels finished dead last in the conference (after tiebreaks) for the first time since 2002. A plethora of injuries to key players like Cole Anthony and Brandon Robinson and disappointing impacts from transfers Justin Pierce and Christian Keeling kept UNC down in the ACC gutter all year.
Florida State was the “good” surprise of the league, winning its first outright title in school history. The Seminoles used their patented elite size and athleticism to overwhelm the competition on both ends of the floor. Coach Leonard Hamilton (aka Bunny Colvin) deservedly ran away with the Coach of the Year award after his team’s 16-4 ACC performance.
Duke and Louisville played to preseason expectations, with the Devils failing to win the ACC regular season conference crown once again (reminder: Duke hasn’t won the regular season title since 2010). Virginia had a roller coaster season, going from “good” to “bad to “really good” over the course of the year. The Hoos clawed their way all the way up the standings to nab the 2-seed in the ACC tourney – Tony Bennett’s third consecutive top two league finish.
Outside of those top four teams, the ACC was mediocre-to-trash. NC State, Syracuse, and Notre Dame could not have been more ordinary, though individual performances from Elijah Hughes and John Mooney, among others, still stood out. Georgia Tech exceeded expectations to finish 5th in the league standings, but sadly the Yellow Jackets are banned from postseason play. Clemson and Virginia Tech were both better than advertised, particularly the Hokies at the start of the year when they knocked off Michigan State in Maui. Boston College was weirdly competitive in ACC play up until mid-to-late February, Pitt fell off a cliff after February 8th and lost its last seven games, Wake was surprisingly tough all year long, and Miami FL was riddled with injuries ala UNC.
Tournament Preview
The ACC tourney is held in Greensboro, NORTH CAROLINA (my apologies for the slip on the podcast - I promise I know geography) from March 10-14. The top four squads receive a double-bye, which is fitting with how those four dominated the league. Georgia Tech’s absence makes the bracket slightly different than in years past, but nothing too crazy.
I may be reaching for straws here, but don’t be surprised if UNC has a little run in them. The Heels should be fully healthy now and lost six ACC games this year by five points or less (three of which were in overtime). Cole Anthony is as talented as any player in the conference, and Roy Williams has plenty of other 4- and 5-stars with which to make a last second charge at the NCAA Tournament. Otherwise, I do not see anybody winning this thing outside the top four seeds.
Tournament Predictions
(12) Wake Forest over (13) Pittsburgh
(14) North Carolina over (11) Virginia Tech
(8) Clemson over (9) Miami FL
(5) NC State over (12) Wake Forest
(7) Notre Dame over (10) Boston College
(14) North Carolina over (6) Syracuse
(1) Florida State over (8) Clemson
(4) Duke over (5) NC State
(2) Virginia over (7) Notre Dame
(14) North Carolina over (3) Louisville
(4) Duke over Florida State
(2) Virginia over (14) North Carolina
(4) Duke over (2) Virginia