ACC 2021-22 Preview
-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Fr., Duke
Coach of the Year: Chris Mack, Louisville
Newcomer of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Fr., Duke
Freshman of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Duke
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Duke
See full preview here: #10 in our Top 40 countdown
2. North Carolina
See full preview here: #14 in our Top 40 countdown
3. Florida State
See full preview here: #18 in our Top 40 countdown
4. Louisville
See full preview here: #21 in our Top 40 countdown
5. Virginia
See full preview here: #23 in our Top 40 countdown
6. Virginia Tech
See full preview here: #36 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 2
7. Syracuse
Key Returners: Buddy Boeheim, Joseph Girard, Jesse Edwards
Key Losses: Alan Griffin, Quincy Gerrier, Marek Dolezaj, Kadary Richmond
Key Newcomers: Benny Williams
Lineup:
Outlook: ‘Twas another patented ‘rope-a-dope’ Syracuse season in the land of Orange. You know the script. Float on the bubble, barge into the dance, then spoil everyone’s fun masquerading as a ‘Cinderella’, while the rest of us non-Cuse fans roll our eyes in annoyance.
Say what you will about Jimmy Boeheim, but few coaches in America are as forthcoming when it comes to assessing their own team (as a semi-professional previewer of teams, this pleases me!). The following Boeheim quote, courtesy of Adam Zagorgia’s interview from Forbes, encapsulates the Orange’s 2021-22 outlook in a nut shell:
“We will be a really, really good offensive team. We will score better and more than last year and we were in the top 40 in offense. … We got nine good players but they all can shoot. We got knockdown shooters. We’re a little slow so how much that affects us I don’t know.”
Boom, nailed it. Premier athletes with go-go-gadget arms have been subtly replaced by robotic shooters, who can rip the nets from NBA range and beyond. Buddy Boeheim headlines the deep stable of shooters, riding high off his NCAA Tournament inferno. And since the ‘give it to my kid and let him make it rain’ play worked wonders, why not go double trouble with big bro in the mix?!
If it’s nice, make it thrice! Before you scream nepotism, know that Jimmy Jr. can stroke it with the best of ‘em, too. Granted, his percentages debunk that prior statement entirely. He’ll need to knock down better than 30% from bonus land to keep his spot in the rotation.
Good thing Jim Sr. tagged Cole Swider from Villanova as a floor spacing contingency play (or perhaps first option?). The 6’9 Swider finally found his mojo last year, thriving as a hyper efficient floor spacer in Villanova’s spread offense.
Incumbent floor general and long-range sniper Joseph Girard is back to steer the ship, but he too is looking to buoy his subpar percentages after two consecutive seasons finishing with a sub 34% 3PT%. At times, Girard’s dazzling shot making is appointment television worthy, but his streakiness is a lingering wart on his offensive arsenal.
In summation, shooting itself will not be an issue – but the inception of those shots (read: shot creation) remains a major question mark, especially in the wake of Kadary Richmond’s departure. Richmond labored through injury last season but was still highly effective on both ends, proving his worth as the presumed successor at point guard.
Welp, that plan flamed out. Richmond ultimately chose the pirate’s life over the Orange and bolted to Seton Hall. The lack of perimeter dynamism is a worry, no doubt, but look for IMG Academy product Benny Williams to come to the rescue. At first glance, Williams resembles the OG Syracuse player prototype that predated the 2019-20 season: long, athletic, and versatile. It doesn’t take more than a few minutes of tape to be in awe of Williams’ airtight handle and feathery jumper. Yet, that’s just a fraction of his well-rounded offensive repertoire.
I’m particularly enamored with this anecdote from SI’s All-American Director of Basketball Recruiting Jason Jordan:
“He's best when he's a playmaker, making plays from the wing. As he's improved his ball handling, I could see him at the point forward position. He's such a great playmaker, so heady, great basketball IQ, great passer. He can score when he wants to, but he has just a great feel for the game. And you can tell that's grown year over year."
We’ve seen Boeheim deploy Tyus Battle, another rangy wing, in a similar-ish manner before so don’t be surprised to see Williams carry a lot on his shoulders from Day 1. Granted, that comparison has its flaws. Battle wasn’t promoted to the ‘primary creator’ post until his junior season. Thus, asking Williams to run the show right out of the gate might be a tall order for a rookie but at the end of the day he’s still a top-40 talent.
Symir Torrence was an under the radar transfer portal pickup by Boehiem, a competent, plug-n-play combo guard who can be deployed in a variety of roles. His production to date doesn’t back up that narrative but a change of scenery might unlock the dormant potential hidden in his pedigree (former top-100 recruit).
The offensive bullishness is warranted but Boeheim’s defensive skepticism is equally as justified.
The outer shell of the zone looks to be more penetrable than ever, as the Orange lose three defensive demons in Richmond, Alan Griffin, and Quincy Gerrier. However, a glass half full perspective would cite the refurbished frontline, thanks to Bourama Sidibe’s impending return. Jesse Edwards turned heads with a few jaw-dropping efforts late in the year but projecting him as a full-time stopgap in the belly of the zone is probably a bridge too far. Interestingly enough, Sidibe’s best (most healthy) season to date was the 2019-20 campaign when the Cuse defense fell outside the top-100 in KenPopm’s adjusted defensive efficiency for only the 2nd time in the KenPom era.
This is where the injury prone Sidibe can fill a key void. Sidibe and Edwards aren’t durable or reliable enough as a standalone entity to quarterback the zone for 30-35 minutes a game. But, if platooned as a tag team, the Sidibe / Edwards duo should form a gritty pair of garbage men, sufficient enough to keep the Orange from getting bullied inside. John Bol Ajak also boomeranged back to Syracuse after exploring the portal this summer. He’ll be ready at the drop of a hat to fill Sidibe or Edwards’ shoes in the rotation should an injury arise.
Bottom Line: This is the third straight season where Syracuse will go as their shot making goes, an odd identity shift from the length and athleticism infused defensive-driven squads that preceded them. A healthy Sidibe and a consistent Edwards could restore balance to the force but this figures to be another vanilla defensive team, devoid of the intimidating length and anticipation we’ve seen bewilder opponents in the past. Still, Syracuse will light it up with anyone, again, and be right back in the thick of the bubble ether, again.
8. Notre Dame
Key Returners: Prentiss Hubb, Nate Laszewski, Dane Goodwin, Cormac Ryan, Trey Wertz
Key Losses: Juwan Durham
Key Newcomers: Paul Atkinson (Yale), Blake Wesley
Lineup:
Outlook: Anyone else excessively bewildered by the Irish last year?
For example, are we sure the January 16th- February 24th stretch (6-2 w/ road win at Duke) was that impressive? That win at Cameron, plus the early non-con victory at Kentucky, aged poorly, to say the least and, save the commendable home win over Florida State, there’s a lot of nothing on Notre Dame’s 2020-21 resume.
As a devout Irish believer coming into the year, this was frustrating. If it wasn’t for a *certain financial interest* in a miracle backdoor cover at Michigan State, I’d be a little more sour grapes.
Hey Mike, wanna run it back?
Sweet, let’s ride…
Back to the well we go, folks. If this Notre Dame endorsement goes completely off the rails, it’ll be because I forgot the cardinal rule when prognosticating the Irish: defense also matters.
As a parallel, previewing Notre Dame usually charts the same course as a team like Davidson.
Will they score?
Likely.
Will they defend?
*gulp*
The stylistic strengths and weaknesses are virtually a copy / paste from year-to-year. And in the wake of hitting rock bottom defensively – statistically, ND’s defense was the worst of Mike Brey’s 20-year tenure last season – particular attention is needed on the defensive end. Over 200 teams in college basketball were more adequate at getting stops than the Irish last year. Not great, Bob (sorry Jordan).
There’s a floating narrative permeating in niche circles that a beacon of hopes exists in Anthony Solomon. The journeyman assistant has officially boomeranged back to South Bend after a 4-year stint at Dayton, following a season at Georgetown in 2017. Prior to that, Solomon sat next to Brey during the Irish glory years: 2008-2016. As a refresher, there was an ACC Championship, and consecutive Elite-8 appearances sprinkled in there.
Coincidence? It’s hard to completely shun Solomon’s uninspiring tenure as the head honcho at St. Bonaventure but he carries a sterling reputation as a defensive coordinator, the hat he wore when he last worked for Brey (also, it’s a reminder that Mark Schmidt is indeed a sorcerer). As consistently good as Notre Dame was during Solomon’s first stint in South Bend, they weren’t exactly a defensive powerhouse. But, they did crack the top-100 in six of those nine seasons, a watermark hit only once over the last four years.
I shall refer you to this excellent piece on Solomon by the South Bend Tribune, which delivered this profound quote on Solomon’s potential impact with this once touted group of seniors:
The soon-to-be senior class, touted among the nation’s Top 15 when it signed, hasn’t developed or delivered for myriad reasons. One offseason with Solomon should change that.
Solomon’s blueprint? As reported by the ND Rivals website, it’s the same ‘no-middle’ defense that propelled Baylor to an improbable national title, two years after fellow adopter Texas Tech fell short of the gold medal in 2019.
Great ‘system-based’ defenses (e.g., the packline) can mask minor deficiencies in individual defender quality. Notre Dame’s guards are by no means tenacious ball hawks with otherworldly quickness. They need to be aided by airtight rotations and off-ball support. This is especially critical with Juwan Durham leaving town, the Irish’s pogo-stick eraser who covered up a lot of mistakes and defeats.
At the very least, I just hope this means that porous zone we saw last season is forever extinct.
Ahhh yes, time for dessert, finally.
The no-brainer replacement for Durham is Paul Atkinson, who opens a world of opportunities for the surgical Irish offense. Atkinson’s a wizard in and around the block, an ode to the post up big man relics. With four shooters dotted around the arc around him, Atkinson will have a field day in all the vacant acreage around the lane:
Prentiss Hubb is back as the perimeter engine, a measured playmaker and scorer. Dane Goodwin and Cormac Ryan project as upper 30s 3-point shooters, and I remain cautiously optimistic they’ll get there – when I retire from 3MW, I will be pursuing a career as a freelance shot doctor. Nate Laszewski and Trey Wertz are deadly from deep as well and double as serviceable complementary scorers. Perhaps this is the year Robby Carmody stays on the floor for a full season, another sniper snakebitten by injuries.
Here’s the rebuttal to all Irish believers (including me): There’s no Demetrius Jackson or Matt Farrell or Jerian Grant or Ben Hansbrough walking through that door. Hubb is the epitome of solid, but he sometimes struggles to create separation from his defender. True, Matty Farrell wasn’t an Olympian by any stretch, but he was mega efficient as a scorer / shooter, AND he had TJ Gibbs running alongside him.
Bottom Line: Notre Dame should get a new lease on life with a revamped defensive approach and new piece to the already stocked offensive war chest (Atkinson). I struggle to get a pulse on the consensus Notre Dame opinion, but I fancy myself ‘bullish’ on an Irish bounce back.
9. Miami FL
Key Returners: Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty, Anthony Walker, Harlond Beverly
Key Losses: Chris Lykes, Elijah Olaniyi, Nysier Brooks, Matt Cross, Earl Timberlake
Key Newcomers: Charlie Moore (DePaul), Jordan Miller (George Mason), Jakai Robinson, Bensley Joseph
Lineup:
Outlook: What did Jim Larranaga do to piss off the basketball Gods?
The Canes were stung badly by the injury bug in 2019 and 2020, which should’ve been an adequate sacrifice to the powers that be. Nope, not even close…
Sure, injuries impact every team, but this was a calamity of epic proportions. No one was ravaged harder by injuries last season, period:
It was so bad that poor Larranaga had to respond to inquiries about the competence of the athletic staff. Initially, he publicly dismissed the notion that the training program was to blame for the injury pile up, but the offseason shake up tells the true story. Sam Johnson, formerly of James Madison, was ultimately appointed to head the revamped training crew, in hopes of mending a roster that’s been more brittle than loose leaf paper since 2019.
Injuries are the wet blanket of college basketball, but they simply can’t be glossed over when it comes to projecting Miami. At minimum, a mini roster reset should help alleviate the chronic injury mess. Isaiah Wong was the only mainstay in the rotation a year ago, presumably the most durable of the incumbents. Fellow backcourt mate Harlond Beverly missed the final eight contests due to a back issue, but he’s been mostly healthy over his first two seasons. Beverly’s a gifted talent but needs to address a broken jump shot ASAP, which crippled his efficiency last year. The Canes’ trials and tribulations over the last two seasons have diminished Wong’s star power, but he’s a big time scorer and underrated creator for others. Imagine the possibilities with a fully healthy supporting cast!
To hedge against Beverly’s volatility, the Canes tagged Charlie Moore as the quasi-Chris Lykes replacement. In many ways, Moore’s cut from the same cloth as Lykes, both mini-maestros with head-snapping quickness off the bounce. Their exhilarating, highlight reel plays make them polarizing players, as their game-to-game efficiency has always lagged behind their pizazz. Moore steps up to bat at his fourth college destination, in hopes he’ll find salvation in Coral Gables. He was productive at DePaul but never won. He won at Kansas but never produced. Here, he’ll hope to kill two birds with one stone.
The one player who should be jazzed about Moore’s arrival is Kam McGusty, a classic ‘he’s still in school?!’ nominee. The former Oklahoma defector has become the ultimate man of mystery. His strengths and weaknesses and his role seem to change on a year-to-year basis. At times, he gives off ‘good at everything, great at nothing vibes’ but I stand by his talent and intangibles. With Moore coming to town, McGusty won’t need to double as a co-facilitator in the offense. Now, he can get back to the business of exploiting mismatches with his inside-out scoring package.
Larranaga’s recruiting cache is still cooking with gas, as he nabbed two more top-100 prospects in this year’s cycle, Jakai Robinson and Bensley Joseph, while 3-star Nisine Poplar just missed the century mark cut off in 247Sports’ mid-summer rankings. The overarching theme here is that the backcourt looks to be upgraded, if not simply for the fact that they’ll be able to stay on the floor.
However, last year’s fragile frontline still looks quite vulnerable. Larranaga was crystal clear that his aim was to bolster the front court depth via the portal but he never bagged the elephant. He did pick up a personal pet player of mine, the burly 6’6 do-everything swingman Jordan Miller, but without stilts, Miller won’t be the solution this downy soft interior defense demands – gone is Nysier Brooks, last year’s top dog in the paint. Rodney Miller and Sam Waardenburg are each coming off severe injuries, while Deng Gak just completed his first full semi-healthy season in three years. Thankfully, the high-flying Anthony Walker returns to alleviate some of this stress.
Bottom Line: When ‘the U’ has all hands-on deck, this program can still punch with the ACC elites. The Hurricanes showed heart in the final four games of the season, coinciding with McGusty and Elijah Olaniyi finally nearing 100% after injuries slowed them early on.
Sure, cherry picking those rare, isolated examples is prone to small sample size theatre. But, the recent demise of Canes basketball is not some deep-seeded deterioration in Larranaga’s coaching competence and the overall program allure. He does deserve partial blame for putting his eggs in multiple injury-marred baskets, but the offseason initiatives related to the training staff and roster reconstruction are signs the 2022 season should be a refreshing return to normalcy (*knocks furiously on wood*).
10. North Carolina State
Key Returners: Cam Hayes, Thomas Allen, Jericole Hellems, Manny Bates, Dereon Seabron
Key Losses: DJ Funderburk, Devon Daniels, Braxton Beverly
Key Newcomers: Casey Morsell (Virginia), Greg Gantt (Providence), Ernest Ross, Terquavion Smith
Lineup:
Outlook: The Kevin Keatts Conundrum, Chapter 5.
From mid-major golden boy to perennial bubble boy, the polarization of Kevin Keatts knows no boundaries. The oscillations in opinions have swung back and forth like a Big Ben-sized pendulum. Ignoring last year’s weirdness, Keatts tallied 20+ wins in each of his first three seasons and was in the thick of the NCAA tournament hunt all three of those years – if not for COVID, he’d probably have two postseason appearances to his name.
Perhaps the Keatts cache has progressively grown stale over the last few seasons. In many ways, there are shades of Brad Underwood’s career trajectory in Keatts’ track record. At Illinois, Underwood initially struggled to tailor his helter-skelter system, which churned out winning seasons in perpetuity at the mid-major level, to Power 6 caliber competition. Keatts hasn’t quite gotten over that hump but there’s evidence that Keatts is finally making the proper adaptations, akin to the buttons Underwood pushed at U of I.
The common denominator in their evolutions is a pull back of the frenetic two-way pressure. Neither has completely abandoned their full court pressing schemes or high-octane transition attacks, but, as the data below reveals, Keatts may be slowly easing his foot off the gas pedal:
Avg. Possession Length on Offense (national rank)
2019: 35th
2020: 80th
2021: 151st
Avg. Possession Length on Defense (national rank)
2019: 169th
2020: 172nd
2021: 325th
Defensive Foul Rate (national rank)
2019: 306th
2020: 252nd
2021: 104th
In short, the Pack dialed back the aggression on both ends of the floor. The question is, are we witnessing a new normal in Raleigh?
It’s entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that last season was simply an outlier. The Wolfpack dealt with two COVID shutdowns, on top of losing Devon Daniels (read: their best player) halfway through the season. Eventually, Keatts was hamstrung by a 7-man rotation, which is suboptimal for deploying 40 minutes of relentless pressure.
If Keatts’ breakdown of his top offseason transfer acquisition Casey Morsell is any indication, NC State will be off to the races, again, in 2022…
“I’m very excited to have Casey join our program,” Keatts said. “I think he is going to flourish in our up-tempo offensive system. He is a three-level scorer and a very capable defender. I believe he is a great fit for what we want to do.”
If 2022 is to be the year of redemption, the Pack’s fate lies in the palms of Cam Hayes. The lauded rookie prospect looked destined for instant stardom after his first three games last season. Poor competition notwithstanding, Hayes dished out 16 assists and posted a big fat goose egg in the TO column, while pouring in 34 points in hyper efficient fashion.
Hayes hit a few road bumps as the season wore on, but Pack fans should feel good about his trajectory. ACCSports.com ran an excellent breakdown of Hayes’ development, highlighting his plus-to-elite level shot making, both off the catch and off the dribble, the latter of which is especially critical in NC State’s pick-n-roll centric offense. However, Hayes can be gun shy when it comes to attacking the rim, which leaves his efficiency highly leveraged on shot making (not always sustainable).
Circling back to Morsell, he’s the odds-on favorite to slide into the starting lineup next to Hayes, along with streaky shooter Thomas Allen. Greg Gantt is the other notable transfer, a long rangy wing from Providence. Like seemingly every player that comes through Providence, Gantt brings length and versatility to the table, which should make him a great plug-n-play piece in multiple lineups.
Jericole Hellems returns as the bellcow of the wing corps, who exploded in conference play after Daniels tore his ACL. Dereon Seabron was another late bloomer last year, playing his best ball during the Pack’s 5-game winning streak in late February. If Keatts can get quality minutes from Terquavion Smith, the most lauded of the two rookie guards, that gives him six legit options to mix and match lineups across the 1-4 positions.
Up front, DJ Funderburk will pass the baton to ‘the Sultan of Swats’, Manny Bates, who will usher in top-50 recruit Ernest Ross, an enticing prospect with jaw-dropping upside. Ross is a tailor-made fit for Keatts’ system, a long, wiry, do-everything forward that possesses wing skills in a forward’s frame. He was a late riser on the grassroots circuit, but the once-raw project is on the brink of actualizing his potential. His effortless shooting stroke is why NC State fans should be salivating:
Bottom Line: If Keatts is set on sticking to his roots, robust depth will be the Wolfpack’s skeleton key to success. Barring another catastrophic injury episode, the Pack will boast a stout 9-man rotation in 2022. Still, that alone likely won’t cut it. A return trip to the promise land largely hinges on Hayes, the scintillating sophomore with worlds of upside.
11. Georgia Tech
Key Returners: Michael Devoe, Bubba Parham, Jordan Usher, Khalid Moore
Key Losses: Moses Wright, Jose Alvarado
Key Newcomers: Dallan Coleman, Deivon Smith (Mississippi State), Miles Kelly
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s a shame the NCAA Tournament selection committee had to drop Georgia Tech into a death trap, paired with Loyola Chicago (who may go down as one of the best 8-seeds in recent memory) and Illinois (the subsequent round victim of those damn Ramblers).
All we wanted was more cowbell – and by cowbell, I obviously mean Josh Pastner content:
Hey, there’s a chance we’ll get another front row seat to a Yellow Jacket NCAA Tournament charge in 2022 – though, I’d wager an NIT berth is the more likely postseason destination. The fighting Pastners must replace two cornerstones in Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado, but a prolific backcourt will light the path for a 2021 rewind.
It all starts with Michael Devoe, who consistently paced the Yellow Jackets’ perimeter scoring down the stretch last year. Devoe’s size and fluidity at the guard position has certainly caught the attention of pro scouts. He’s an instinctual defender with long arms but his boundless shooting range is why he’s a household name:
Bubba Parham returns as Devoe’s sidekick, whose consistency was all over the map last year. With his impending promotion in the backcourt pecking order, Parham must smooth out that streaky volatility. The same could be said of Jordan Usher, but the former USC transfer is already well on his way. In Usher’s early GT days, horrid shot selection and inexplicable turnovers became infuriating, but props to Usher for making the proper corrections last year. The freakish athlete came to terms to with his true destiny.
Few in the ACC are more gifted athletically than Usher, which shines through in his disruptive activity defensively. On offense, it’s sometimes tough to unleash this explosiveness in the right place at the right time, but this drive and hammer against Florida State in the ACC Tournament title game is a microcosm of the opportunistic plays Usher needs to prioritize:
Useful reserve Kyle Sturdivant is back, but watch out for two top-100 recruits, Dallan Coleman and Miles Kelly, who could carve out a spot in the rotation right away. Deivon Smith is another diamond in the rough coming over from Mississippi State – he earned an invitation to the USA U19 tryouts, proof of the potential evaluators see in Smith.
The million-dollar question is who will fill Moses Wright’s clown-sized shoes up front. Even though Jose Alvarado took home Defensive Player of the Year honors, the Jackets are deep enough on the perimeter to replace him. Wright, on the other hand, has no proven successor waiting in the wings.
Pastner’s patented zone is a known commodity around the ACC at this juncture:
With all due respect to Rodney Howard, he’ll need a quantum leap to solidify himself as the primary paint protector. Khalid Moore will offer some support, but this looks like a skeleton replica of the Ben Lammers, James Banks and Moses Wright fortified units of years past.
Bottom Line: While the personnel turnover warrants concerns, GT should still be able to build off its comet-like surge in late February. As detailed by the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Pastner conceded the early season struggles were largely rooted in extreme COVID precautions – in essence, disjointed practices in small player clusters completely hindered Tech’s ability to master Pastner’s shifting zone scheme. Just like any complex offense, an effective zone requires players to read and react instantaneously, almost as if it is habitual – and instilling these habits takes time.
The personnel losses of Wright and Alvarado are substantial, to put it lightly, but there’s hidden nuggets of optimism rooted in Georgia Tech’s 2021 campaign. Still, cracking the upper half of the ACC standings will be a tall task in this beefed-up competitive field.
12. Clemson
Key Returners: Nick Honor, Al-Amir Dawes, PJ Hall, Hunter Tyson, Alex Hemenway
Key Losses: Aamir Simms, Jonathan Baehre, Clyde Trapp
Key Newcomers: David Collins (USF), Naz Bohannon (Youngstown State)
Lineup:
Outlook: Brad Brownell teams are never going to win a basketball beauty contest. But by golly you can’t question their level of compete and level of commitment to defending at a high level. Most ACC foes view the Tigers as a perpetual thorn in their side, and for good reason. A trip to Littlejohn is basically a trip to the dentist:
That said, a stingy defense can only take you so far. Slippage on the other end of the floor has taken hold the last two years, even with offensive Swiss Army knife Aamir Simms as the focal point. It’s tough to underscore how much Simms meant to this team last year, on both ends. His triple-threat versatility on offense made everyone’s life easier but he was arguably more valuable as a defensive safety net. The following chart paints a harrowing picture of what the Tigers’ defense *could* look like in a post Simms world:
Removing the 3-point shooting splits from the equation (which is mostly noise), Clemson’s interior defense still crumbled without Simms roaming the restricted area. Uh oh…
All eyes will turn to PJ Hall, who carries a lighter size + skill starter kit as Simms. The former top-50 recruit and lone remnant from Brownell’s star-studded recruiting class in the 2020 cycle looked overmatched last season, but the pedigree alone is enough to warrant *some* optimism. Hall may need more time to cook, though, which likely paves the way for Naz Bohannon, a miniature version of Simms at 6’6.
Bohannon bullied weaker Horizon frontlines last season while serving as the hub of Youngstown’s offense. He is blessed with Simms-esque handle and vision, but he’ll be hard-pressed to make a living on physicality and hustle alone, which was at the core of his production in the Horizon.
Incumbent guards Nick Honor and Al-Amir Dawes are back, both solid and steady options but far from the perimeter gamebreaker this roster lacks. South Florida import David Collins likely fills the wing void, a well-rounded power wing who had moments of brilliance during his time in the panhandle. Collins is a vicious rim attacker and contact seeker – he’s racked up over 700 free throws attempts during his career – but also grew into a reliable long-range shooter last season. Collins canned 38% from downtown, which falls in line with Dawes (39%) and Honor’s (37%) hit rates. This perimeter triumvirate may not be as dynamic as other backcourts found around the ACC, but it’s subtly one of the conference’s most precise shooting trios.
There’s a world in which Clemson’s offensive efficiency is buoyed by shooting, shockingly, as mitigation for the lack of offensive firepower. The big wildcard is Hunter Tyson, last year’s late bloomer, who was nearly automatic from bonus land. He’s not just a standstill, catch-and-shoot guy, though. Tyson runs the floor well in transition and finishes with confidence through contact around the rim.
How Chase Hunter fits into the puzzle is a major unknown, but the time is ticking on the former top-100 recruit to fulfill his recruiting prophecy – he certainly won’t be helpful in the shooting department.
With three pivotal starters walking out the door, Brownell is definitely in a phase of transition. The thing is, this isn’t just a roster in flux. The coaching staff is undergoing a face lift as well. Marty Simmons, who served as Brownell’s special assistant since August of 2018, accepted the head coaching vacancy at Eastern Illinois University, while assistant Anthony Goins also departed.
Former Indiana State assistant Kareem Richardson will be reunited with Brownell this year, both of whom were groomed under Royce Waltman at Indiana State. Richardson is well regarded in the Hoosier State and, at minimum, should uphold a modicum of continuity and stability to Brownell’s style of play. He also recently brought in Lucas McKay, a former assistant to Billy Donlon at UMKC, which further reinforces that grit and grind identity.
Bottom Line: Let’s not sugarcoat anything. This may be Brownell’s weakest crop of talent in nearly seven seasons. Yet, we’ve doubted the personnel before and the Tigers still scrap and claw their way to a competitive season. That institutional success is precisely why we have Clemson penciled above the three cellar dwellers.
Tier 3
13. Pittsburgh
Key Returners: Femi Odukale, Ithiel Horton, Nike Sibande
Key Losses: Justin Champagnie, Au'Diese Toney, Xavier Johnson
Key Newcomers: Daniel Oladapo (Oakland), Jamarius Burton (Texas Tech), Mouhamadou Gueye (Stony Brook)
Lineup:
Outlook: Fast starts and quick flameouts have become the norm in the Steel City. In 2019-20, an exuberant youth movement caught fire early on, but the inexperience eventually took its toll. An underclassmen-laden roster was shell-shocked by the wear and tear of a grueling ACC schedule, manifesting in a 7-game losing streak to close out the regular season.
Last year, a tornado of COVID absences and untimely injuries spoiled another strong start, as the Panthers watched an 8-2 record flip to 10-12 by season’s end.
At the eye of the storm is Jeff Capel. Has the recruiting magnet responsible for landing generational talents at Oklahoma and Duke lost his mojo? Or is there a larger undercurrent at play preventing Pitt from gaining any real sort of momentum (teaser: see ‘Bottom Line’ below).There’s a common theme amongst the ACC bottom feeders. Pitt’s roster is littered with mid-major up transfers, save Texas Tech import Jamarius Burton, a concerning indicator of diminishing momentum within the grassroots recruiting pool. Capel did manage to catch a big fish in the 2022 class this summer, 4-star combo guard Judah Mintz, as he aims to restock the talent pipeline. Hopefully, this is the beginning of the end of a multi-year drought for Capel on the recruiting trail. Mintz certainly has the pedigree to lay the groundwork for the next wave of homegrown talent, akin to the likes of Trey McGowens, Justin Champagnie and Xavier Johnson.
For now, the 2022 roster lacks that sexy star power, but it does hold some competent pieces. It starts with a big, athletic backcourt, all of whom are cut from the combo guard mold. Ithiel Horton and Nike Sibande are the incumbent veterans, two incendiary, albeit streaky, scorers who will seek more consistency in 2022. Horton’s long-range marksmanship can be a lethal weapon when he’s got the hot hand. Per ShotQuality.com, Pitt’s possessions ended with a Horton catch-and-shoot three more frequently than any other sequence last season. Horton canned 13 triples in three of Pitt’s first four conference victories, but he floated in and out of games far too often late in the year.
Sibande’s injury-prone reputation caught up to him again last year, but he hit the afterburners by late February. A high-octane athlete, Sibande’s a devastating slasher, particularly out in the open floor. However, finishing through traffic has been a chore for Sibande over his career – to optimize Sibande, Capel should aim to push the pace out in transition as much as possible.
Sibande’s late season emergence was largely overshadowed by teammate Femi Odukale, a 6’5 power guard with a mountainous ceiling. The rising sophomore took flight after Valentine’s Day, concluding with a 28-point explosion in a losing effort against Miami in the ACC Tournament. The aforementioned Burton adds another bullet to the backcourt chamber. He was recruited over at Texas Tech but proved his worth as a full-time starter on Wichita State’s 2020 tournament team.
Joining Burton on the transfer walkway are Daniel Oladapo and Mouhamadou Gueye, both of whom carry sterling defensive reputations from their prior destinations. Pitt’s plus perimeter length did nothing to stop the interior nosebleeds that persisted last season, but Gueye should shore up those holes in a hurry. The reigning America East Defensive Player of the Year is not your typical ‘block or bust’ rim protector. He’s both smart and laterally agile, well-equipped to fortify the back end of Pitt’s defense. Oladapo is a physical wing / forward hybrid who might be one of the best pound-for-pound rebounders in the ACC. He may be reduced to a glorified bruiser against Power-6 size up front, but his nose for the ball will translate immediately to glass production.
Bottom Line: The elephant in the room, unaddressed until now, is what ultimately drove the exodus of Xavier Johnson and Au'Diese Toney late in the season. Reporting from Pittsburgh Sports Now (see video below) carefully tiptoed around the explicit cause of the rift between Johnson, Toney, Capel and other actors, but the headline quote from Mike Vukovcan’s breakdown is as follows: “Jeff Capel needs to get a better control of his program.”
Player turnover is becoming commonplace in today’s college basketball environment, but if Capel can’t lock down blue chip prospects year over year, roster continuity will be critical to sustaining success. To his credit, Capel rolled up his sleeves and embraced the transfer bonanza with open arms. Those transfers, along with a potential Odukale breakout, will determine the fate of the 2022 Pitt basketball season.
14. Wake Forest
Key Returners: Carter Whitt, Daivien Williamson, Isaiah Mucius
Key Losses: Ian DuBose, Jonah Antonio
Key Newcomers: Alondes Williams (Oklahoma), Dallas Walton (Colorado), Jake LaRavia (Indiana State), Khadim Sy (Ole Miss)
Lineup:
Outlook: A patchwork roster didn’t yield any significant momentum in Steve Forbes’ inaugural season at the helm last year, but this was never going to be a quick fix rebuild. In fact, the roster teardown this summer may be a blessing in disguise…
The brutal truth is that Wake was bad on both ends of the floor last season, devoid of any steadfast identity. The recipe of last year’s defensive malfunction contained multiple rotten ingredients. First off, lady luck was viciously poisonous to the Deacs – ACC foes canned 39% from behind the arc, the highest clip in the conference. Granted, there may have been some self-infliction there. Wake’s lack of perimeter length and footspeed led to issues keeping dribble penetration out of the danger zones, allowing uncontested, high percentage catch-and-shoot threes.
However, a superb in-depth interview with 247Sports spotlights Forbes’ vision in this reconstructed Demon Decons roster. Forbes wants to reenact the same blueprint that delivered winning season after winning season at East Tennessee, one flush with bonafide size and physicality. The Bucs routinely boasted Power-6 caliber size, a notch above their mid-major peers. Now, Forbes believes he’s brought in the prerequisite prototypes to regain that edge. Or, at least neutralize it.
From wing to forward to center, Forbes checked all boxes in this summer’s rebuilt. He brought in Alondes Williams (Oklahoma), Khadim Sy (Ole Miss) and Dallas Walton (Colorado), all of whom are plus defenders at their respective positions. Indiana State product Jake LaRavia is the black sheep of this forward haul, a bruising slasher and finisher inside who can also also step away, face up and attack from the perimeter.
Forbes discussed in detail how he sees this revamped group of forwards, along with the returning Isaiah Mucius, meshing together in 2022:
“I think we’re going to play a little bit bigger this year. Jake (LaRavis) is a 4. (Khadim) Sy is a 4. Isaiah (Mucius) can play the 4, but I’m going to play him more at the 3. You have to remember, with motion offense, the 3, 4 and 5 are all kind of interchangeable. Motion changes each year. Motion this year will not be like motion last year. Motion last year was a bunch of passing and cutting. Motion this year will be based a lot on putting that ball on the floor. There will be cutting too, and we’ll be playing off the post a lot more. What I think motion is and what others think motion is can be two different things. We will adapt our offense to our players.”
However, ignoring the backcourt would be foolish. High on Forbes’ to-do list is fine tuning the point guard position, as rising sophomore Carter Whitt was a major work in progress last season. He posted a ghastly 68 O-Rating but a delayed arrival ruined any shot of a consistent season. Whitt’s young and talented, so don’t be shocked to see a night-and-day turnaround in year 2.
Thankfully, Daivien Williamson returns as a calming presence in the backcourt, who was quietly the Deacons’ most reliable contributor last year. Williamson was the consummate role player for Forbes at ETSU, but had to spread his wings on Wake’s watered down roster last year. Typically, mid-major to high- major up transfers see their usage decline, but Williamson answered the bell without hesitation - and in fairly efficient fashion, too.
Tariq Ingraham, who spent all but one game last year on the mend, figures to be the thick of the rotation as well. He scored 19 points in 18 minutes the first game of the year, but COVID ended his season abruptly.
In terms of Forbes’ outlook on the defensive end, he didn’t beat around the bush:
“We have a lot of guys right now, although maybe that’s because we can’t guard you and me right now, but we’ll find out.”
Given the personnel infusions, this surprises me, but perhaps the rookie class can be of some assistance. Of the first-year arrivals, Robert McCray seems to be sprouting the fastest. Forbes gushed about his athletic ability, but again, he’s still in the fetal stages of his development.
“Athletically Robert McCray is on a different level than most guys I’ve recruited. He’s a superior athlete. We did the standing vertical the other day and he did 38 inches, then running vertical he went 42. He’s a special athlete. Now, he’s a freshman and has a lot to learn like the rest of them.”
Bottom Line: It might not look pretty at the onset, but the Deacs could be a tough out when the dog days of conference play heat up.
“Because of the newness of our players, this team will get better and better and better as the season progresses. I don’t see this team playing its best basketball in November. I don’t see that. This is the way my East Tennessee State teams progressed, they started picking up steam and started rolling down the tracks in January, February and March. I hope to see that with this team, as a team who gets better and doesn’t flatline.”
Patience, kids. This will take time. But there are few coaches I place more trust in ‘the process’ than Forbes.
15. Boston College
Key Returners: Makai Ashton-Langford, Demarr Langford Jr., Frederick Scott, James Karnik
Key Losses: Wynston Tabbs, Jay Heath, CJ Felder, Rich Kelly
Key Newcomers: Brevin Galloway (Charleston), T.J. Bickerstaff (Drexel), Quinten Post (Mississippi State), Gianni Thompson
Lineup:
Outlook: Under new leadership at the top of the athletic department totem pole, BC is infusing younger, hungrier coaching prodigies at the helms. New AD Patrick Kraft clearly saw this fire in the belly in Earl Grant, the 44-year old former Charleston program director, who brings a fitting blue collar brand of basketball up north to Boston.
During the Jim Christian era, the BC hoops program was spellbound by the allure of a modernized ‘pace and space’ offense. This system did manage to churn out a few prolific individual stars (e.g., Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman) but failed to deliver in the win column.
Winning at BC is borderline impossible, always outmanned and outgunned by the talent rich ACC. As Billy Beane poetically stated in Moneyball, “if we play like the Yankees in here, we’re going to lose to the Yankees out there.”
In Christian’s last five years, the Eagles were consistently one of the faster teams in America, clocking a top-125 average tempo four of his final five years. Pace and space are entertaining dynamics, no doubt. Plus, it can boost recruiting, an enticing selling point for high school prospects and eligible transfers. But, given the competitive landscape, getting into high possession affairs with Duke and North Carolina is essentially stacking the deck against yourself.
All that is to say, I agree with Billy. Why fight fire with fire?
This is front and center of why a transition to the defensive-minded Earl Grant passes the sniff test. While the Eagles won’t light up the scoreboard at the rate they did under Christian, Grant’s KenPom coaching page highlights the overarching themes in his philosophy:
In Grant’s world, possessions are precious commodities. He’s disinterested in getting caught up in a track meet with superior talent. To level the talent playing field, he’ll deflate the tempo and aim to ‘out execute’ the opposition, while leaning on an ironclad defense to stay within arm’s reach.
Former Charleston standout Brevin Galloway followed Grant up to Beantown to help instill this culture. Built like a fire hydrant, Galloway is a true throwback bucket getter. He’s a tough shot maker and crafty creator, especially adept at carving out space with jab step and change of pace combinations. He’ll fit like a glove next to dynamic creator / acrobatic scorer Makai Ashton-Langford and burgeoning sophomore Demarr Langford.
The Galloway, MAL, Langford trio should carry enough offensive ammunition to scare the ACC’s heavy hitters when they’re firing on all cylinders. However, all three are coming off injury-marred seasons to various extents and any return visits to the training table could send the Eagles in to tailspin. Grant must avoid exposing the rail thin bench behind them because drop off is rather stark.
Fred Scott and James Karnik are slated to return for their bonus years, whose defensive prowess will be challenged by Grant immediately. Neither was ready to defend against ACC caliber athletes, and opponents had recurring picnics in the lane. Grant nabbed another mid-major up transfer in TJ Bickerstaff, along with Mississippi State defector Quinten Post, but Scott and Karnik will likely carry the freight for the frontline.
Finally, look for Gianni Thompson, the crown jewel of Grant’s incoming rookie class, to get ample opportunities to make his mark. 247Sports recruiting analysis Brian Snow detailed the alluring aspects of Thompson’s game, prompting a rapid ascension in the final consensus recruiting ranks:
"An outside-in forward, Thompson has the ability to score off the dribble, and then also has a nice-looking shot from deep," former 247Sports National Recruiting Analyst Brian Snow previously said of Thompson. "His athleticism is also above average, and he is beginning to get more consistent with his motor and production. As Thompson continues to get stronger, he should improve as a rebounder, and be someone who is a matchup problem from the power forward spot. Because of his skill and athleticism, it is possible that Thompson will also be able to slide over to more of a wing role before it is all said and done, though his size and ability to create a mismatch at the power forward is likely his most impactful role."
Bottom Line: It may be a long and grueling climb back to ACC relevance, but I appreciate the seismic shift in BC’s basketball identity. The Eagles certainly won’t be easy on the eyes anytime soon but Earl Grant’s template for success is this program’s best chance to slingshot up the standings over the long haul.