- Ky McKeon

(1) Baylor v. (2) Houston

Initial Thoughts: Thank you, Basketball Gods, for giving us this Final Four matchup instead of a Bizarro World scenario of Arkansas v. Oregon State. In Baylor & Houston we not only get a Lonestar State showdown, we also get two of the top five teams in the nation according to KenPom.

Baylor has rolled through its first four NCAA Tourney contests, winning each game by nine or more points. The second-favorite choice to win the National Championship has flexed its muscles thus far in the postseason, upending top 20 teams Wisconsin, Villanova, and Arkansas.

Houston on the other hand has had an “easier” route, becoming the ONLY team in tournament history to beat only double-digit seeds on its way to the Final Four. The Coogs breezed past Cleveland State in the First Round, but nearly had its season ended by Rutgers in Second Round. An impressive recovery against Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen and a gritty victory over Oregon State in the Elite Eight has vaulted Houston to its first Final Four since 1984.

Baylor on Offense: Houston is facing by far its biggest challenge of the season on both ends of the floor. Up until this point in the season, the Coogs have faced just one top 30 KenPom opponent (Texas Tech) and prior to the NCAA Tournament have faced just two top 50 KenPom opponents (Texas Tech, Memphis). Baylor is the 2nd best team in the nation per KenPom (and per everyone else), and sports the 3rd best offense in the country.

Baylor’s offense is so potent because of its optionality. The Bears have five guys on their roster that can lead them in scoring on any given night, as the current stats plainly show:

Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler may come off the pine, but they are two electric scorers capable of putting up points against even the likes of Houston.

Floor spacing is king in Scott Drew’s offense. He allows his players’ talent to win battles offensively by giving them space to attack off the bounce, work off ball screens, and drive-and-kick to open shooters. Houston has one of the toughest defenses in the country, due in large part to Kelvin Sampson’s impeccable coaching. You simply will not get into the middle of the arc against the Cougars, they help, dig, and recover as well as any team in the nation.

That’s not the end of the world for a Baylor team adept at taking what the defense gives it. Even if Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell can’t knife into the paint as easily as usual, they will still make plays, and again the Bears have simply too many options offensively to be consistently stopped.

Houston is excellent at denying clean looks from the outside – year after year Sampson’s squads rank among the top in the country in 3P% defense, normally a “luck” stat for any team not named Houston. Perimeter length is key here for the Coogs, as three of Sampson’s primary backcourt pieces, DeJon Jarreau, Quentin Grimes, and Tramon Mark, all stand 6’5”.

Baylor has had a size advantage against every opponent it’s faced this postseason, but though the Bears’ bigs might be taller than Houston’s, I’d call the overall “size” factor a wash on this end. In addition to its lengthy perimeter, Houston boasts two very tough, gritty forwards in Justin Gorham and Reggie Chaney, and 6’8” pogo stick Fabian White and 6’8” center Brison Gresham are two of the best shot-blockers left in the Field of 68.

One matchup angle in Houston’s favor is Baylor’s (surprisingly) low FTA rate. Houston fouls at one of the highest rates in the country, ranking 332nd nationally in FTA rate allowed. In fact its first four contests could have gone a lot differently had free throws fallen more consistently for its opponents:

But Baylor ranks just 295th in the country in FTA rate and 325th in percentage of points scored from the FT line. That’s not to say the Bears can’t attack and get to the foul line against the Coogs, but it certainly is a point in Houston’s favor if the Bears are more willing to settle for outside shots versus attacking the rim and/or drawing fouls.

This is a matchup of strength versus strength on Baylor’s offensive end of the floor – Houston has the discipline and coaching to give the Bears a run for their money.

Houston on Offense: Houston has the reputation of being a defensive stalwart while lacking on the other end of the floor. However, this Coogs squad is actually quite good offensively. Per KenPom, Houston is the 8th best offensive team in the country from an efficiency standpoint, driven largely by its outside shooting, ball handling, and offensive rebounding.

The Coogs’ offense relies almost entirely on its backcourt to score (at least the first time a shot goes up). 3-point shooting, pick-n-roll, and isolation sets are key, allowing talented guards Jarreau, Grimes, Mark, and Marcus Sasser to work in space.

While Houston’s guards are very good 1-on-1 scorers, sometimes their willingness to attack without ball movement leads to stagnated offense. The Coogs rank 18th in the country in percentage of possessions used in isolation but just 75th in points per possession. Against a team like Baylor, who features arguably the best perimeter defender in the country in Davion Mitchell, 1-on-1 ball isn’t going to work most of the time. The Coogs play very methodically on the offensive end but are often forced into taking poor late-clock shots when their initial action breaks down.

Ordinarily this doesn’t matter, as Houston is the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. Case in point, the Coogs shot 20/62 from the floor against Oregon State but still scored 1.10 PPP thanks to grabbing 46.3% of their misses. Baylor’s defensive rebounding numbers aren’t good (273rd in DR% per KenPom), but it would SHOCK me if the Bears are bludgeoned on the glass. Baylor has the size and athleticism to compete on the glass with Houston, plus, the Bears are the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the nation – if motivated they can box out and contain this aspect of the game.  

If Houston isn’t controlling the glass, it could struggle on this end of the floor. Baylor will force the Cougars to take contested outside jump-shots, or tough contested pull-ups, and while Houston’s guards can make those shots, that isn’t the recipe for success against the 2nd best team in the country.

Key Factor(s): With two great defenses, victory often comes down to good old-fashioned shooting. Baylor is the better shooting team and better equipped to score on Houston than Houston is on it.

Baylor needs to compete on its defensive glass – though Houston doesn’t come from a power conference and hasn’t played a dynamite schedule, it is every bit the best offensive rebounding team in the country outside of UNC. If Baylor takes the Coogs lightly on this end, it shall be their doom.

Final Prediction: KenPom has this spread at Baylor -1, but of course oddsmakers (and we) know better. Baylor is the better team and the matchup is in its favor. Houston played one hell of a season and deserves every bit of its Final Four appearance, but I’m taking the Bears -5.

Pick: Baylor -5