- Ky McKeon

In a new (hopefully) weekly column, I’ll be shining a spotlight on three teams on the rise and three teams on the decline. The goal here will be to emphasize more off-the-beaten-path squads, those not regularly covered in the media (or by Jim & Matt’s wonderful weekly editions). More teams, more content, Three Man Weave.

Three Up

Wichita State

Don’t look now but the Shockers are quietly getting back to their dominant ways following Gregg Marshall’s worst season since 2009. In case you had forgotten, Wichita State had been a mainstay among the nationally elite teams from 2011 – 2018, ranking in KenPom’s top 15 five of those seasons, making seven straight NCAA Tournaments, and crashing one Final Four.

Defense has been Wichita’s calling card through nine games. The Shockers rank 11th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, 3rd in Bart Torvik’s, and 6th in Haslametrics’. Wichita has been particularly dominant defensively in the halfcourt, where it’s allowing opponents to score just 0.692 PPP, good for the 97th percentile in the country, per Synergy. Marshall’s athletic, switchable lineups and help-side emphasis make the Shockers a nightmare to pick-n-roll against and guys like Erik Stevenson, Trey Wade, and Tyson Etienne are driving the nation’s 29th best turnover rate.

Now, Wichita hasn’t played a grueling schedule thus far, and its win at Oklahoma State has a small asterisk next to it without Isaac Likekele. But, the AAC should be shaking in its boots heading into conference play. The Shockers are the 15th youngest team in the country and Jaime Echenique, arguably their most important player, is just now starting to round back into form following an injury.

North Texas

Since December 1st, no team has moved up the KenPom ranks faster than the Mean Green.

After a dicey 1-3 start that included a home loss to Eastern Michigan, Grant McCasland’s squad looked like it was in for a major disappointment of a season. However, starting with Roosevelt’s Smart return to action on November 24th against Utah State, UNT has covered four straight contests. At full strength, McCasland’s squad is a legitimate CUSA contender, capable of knocking off Power 6 competition. Though its record may not show it, North Texas has been impressive as hell the past four games. The Mean Green led Utah State by four midway through the second half, knocked off a very good UT Arlington team on the road by double digits, held a ten-point second half lead against Oklahoma before ultimately losing by two, and destroyed a sneaky-talented Little Rock squad.

Keep an eye on North Texas as an under-valued betting asset. Tuesday’s tilt against Dayton should be a fun one to watch.

Yale

Yale almost lost its spot in this inaugural article last night when it narrowly escaped a loss to a shorthanded UMass squad, but the Bulldogs saved themselves in overtime. Despite the loss of pro Miye Oni and key seniors Alex Copeland, Blake Reynolds, and Trey Phills, James Jones’ team has picked up right where it left off last season. The Bulldogs are 9-3 overall this year and 9-2 against the spread, showing the program is greater than its individual personnel.

The Bulldogs will likely fall short of lofty at-large aspirations, but a two-point loss to Penn State on the road and two more away single-digit losses (Oklahoma State and San Francisco) show just how close Yale is to being in consideration. Credit junior point guard Azar Swain for much of Yale’s hot start. The 6’0” guard is averaging career highs in points (15.7 PPG), rebounds (4.3 RPG), and assists (2.1 APG) and stepping up in a major way when his team needs him the most.

Likewise, big men Jordan Bruner and Paul Atkinson have given Yale one of the best frontcourt combinations in mid-majordom. Atkinson leads the Dogs in scoring (16.9 PPG) while Bruner leads the team in rebounds (8.9 RPG) and blocks (2.4 BPG). The Ivy will be ultra-competitive at the top this season with Harvard and Yale duking it out for representation in the Big Dance.

Three Down

Detroit

Hoo boy, does Detroit stink right now. The Titans currently stand at 1-8 overall and 2-7 ATS, a sign that despite their relatively tough schedule they’re performing well below expectations. Antoine Davis caught the attention of the nation last year with his insane 38% 3P% on 347 attempts, most of which were definitely NOT high-percentage shots, but even he hasn’t been able to save Detroit from the abyss in the early going.

There are two key reasons for this drop-off: 1) Last year’s seniors were really important. Guys like Josh McFolley, Derrien King, and Gerald Blackshear didn’t get a whole lot of credit, but they were solid complementary pieces to the star of the show. 2) Shots just aren’t falling. The Titans connected on 35.6% of their three-point attempts last season, 103rd best in the country, but are shooting just 30.7% this year (247th). For a team that attempts threes at the 7th highest rate in the land, poor shooting is a death sentence. To boot, Detroit’s uptempo style of play makes them susceptible to blow-outs, as lots of possessions + poor three-point shooting = large margins of defeat. Indeed only ten teams this year have a worse margin of victory than Detroit’s -18.1.

Amazingly, Brad Calipari, former Kentucky walk-on and subject of casual fan adoration, has done his part brilliantly, connecting on 47.5% of his three-point tries. But, when your offense is so reliant on one player – as Detroit is on Antoine Davis – you are more likely to be “shot out” of games when said player is ice cold from the field.

To date, Davis has hit just 25.3% of his 99 3PA. Only 32% of those makes have been assisted. This has led to some “scintillating” offense thus far:

Saint Joseph’s

St. Joe’s came out of the gates like a rocket, taking down Bradley and UConn on neutral floors and hanging tough with the likes of Florida and Missouri State. But this month has been something else. Excluding the cover (and respectable performance) against Villanova on 12/7, the Hawks have been brutal since November 30th, losing to St. Francis by 16, Lafayette by 23, and Temple by 47 (!!!).

The Hawks didn’t have high expectations heading into the season after losing coach Phil Martelli and their three best players to transfer, but they also shouldn’t be losing to those aforementioned teams by that amount of points. Coincidentally (or not) those three results all occurred with junior Taylor Funk sidelined with injury. Funk, who is apparently worth 20 points on the spread, brings a unique skillset to the table. At 6’9” 230 lbs. he’s the second biggest player on the roster, but he also shoots the three-ball and is one of the Hawks’ best passers and post defenders.

This poor play is also a function of good old-fashioned poor shooting. Over the last four games, here’s how the Hawks have fared:

Lange’s pro-style offense attempts the 14th highest rate of threes in the country. Like Detroit, when shots aren’t falling, the Hawks go down hard.

Colgate

I have a T-Rex-sized bone to pick with Colgate, a team I regularly faded (to my detriment) last season and bet on heavily (to my detriment) this season. The Raiders are just 2-8 ATS this year despite a seemingly-decent 7-4 overall record. Make no mistake about it – Colgate’s December results have been POOR. The Raiders squeaked by Binghamton on 12/4, lost in overtime to a then-winless Niagara squad on 12/8, and needed a 10-point comeback with under seven minutes to go in the second half to beat Cornell at home. Somehow the team with the 20th most minutes returning in the country, who went 24-11 in 2018-19 and competed with Tennessee in the Big Dance, is struggling to beat mid-major bottom feeders.

I don’t really have a reason why Colgate is struggling so much to start the year. Sure, their defense is poor - but it wasn’t good last year. Yes, they aren’t shooting as well - but they’re still 73rd in the country in eFG% and 83rd in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Perhaps it’s simply a lack of effort that will right itself during Patriot play. Jordan Burns, Rapolas Ivanauskas, and Will Rayman are three of the best mid-major basketball players in the land – get your shit together, Colgate.