Numbers 15-50 of the 3MW draft board...
15. Demetrius Jackson (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood: 65% = 4.55)
16. Brice Johnson (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood: 65% = 4.55)
17. Jakob Poeltl (Upside: 7.5, Likelihood: 60% = 4.5)
18. Ben Bentil (Upside: 7.5, Likelihood: 60% = 4.5)
19. Caris LeVert (Upside: 8.0, Likelihood: 55% = 4.4)
20. Furkan Korkmaz (Upside: 8.0, Likelihood: 55% = 4.4)
21. Wade Baldwin (Upside: 8.5, Likelihood 50% = 4.25)
The next two tiers consist of guys I still think could be average starters or very good backups in the NBA, with this tier being more of the "safer" of the two groups and Tier 5 holding guys who are more gambles and will need to overcome some issues to hit that level. Jackson is my 2nd-ranked point guard - his shooting percentages dipped a bit this year as he took the keys to the offense from Jerian Grant, but his playmaking numbers went up and he's a tough, decent athlete. I really like Johnson as a finisher around the hoop, and I thought the light seemed to go on for him during his senior year in terms of effort. Poeltl is higher on a lot of boards - I think he's solid with good touch around the rim, but defensively, he isn't a guy that can switch nor is he a rim protector. I'd like one of the two from a starting center. His improved free throw shooting is a message to all the 45% FT shooters out there - it's not that hard!! Bentil is a well-built PF who has some range, but his rebounding numbers were surprisingly low. LeVert is an awesome talent, a long wing with versatility, ball skills, range, and defensive ability, but the fear is that his repeated foot injuries will continue. If healthy, he's up near Luwawu to me. Korkmaz is a similar style player as a long wing who can shoot, only with less ball skills and defensive ability (but no injury worries). Finally, I'm lower on Baldwin than most - he has elite length/size and shot a solid % from deep, but he oddly couldn't finish at the rim, showed poor leadership skills for a talented Vandy team, and has a slow release/took a pretty low volume of threes.
22. Tyler Ulis (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood: 60% = 4.2)
23. Patrick McCaw (Upside 7.5, Likelihood: 55% = 4.125)
24. Malik Beasley (Upside: 7.5, Likelihood: 55% = 4.125)
25. Dejounte Murray (Upside: 8.0, Likelihood: 50% = 4.0)
26. Taurean Prince (Upside: 8.0, Likelihood: 50% = 4.0)
27. Skal Labissierre (Upside: 8.5, Likelihood, 45% = 3.825)
28. Isaiah Whitehead (Upside: 7.5, Likelihood: 50% = 3.75)
29. Juan Hernangomez (Upside: 7.5, Likelihood: 50% = 3.75)
30. Thon Maker (Upside: 9.0, Likelihood: 40% = 3.6)
Ulis fits more into Tier 4 in that I see him as "safe," but he's just terrifyingly small. Even Brandon Ingram could bench press him!! He's such a steady presence, though, and he has the "it" factor as the leader of an offense. McCaw and Beasley are two intriguing wing prospects, with McCaw having the elite length and Beasley being the better shooter. The beauty is in the eye of the beholder there - it will depend who's drafting. I was hesitant to even place Dejounte Murray this high. The Tony Wroten comparisons scare me; his jumper is so unrefined and his floor game is so raw that his ceiling seems like MCW - not worth a lottery pick. Prince, on the other hand, almost got ranked higher - he has some DeMarre Carroll in him as a big wing who can shoot well enough and should be able to defend 2 through 4 fairly well (though Baylor played a lot of zone). Skal....oh Skal. So many raw skills - that shooting with that rim protection potential is tantalizing, but he's a soft, deer-in-the-headlights guy who was shockingly underwhelming at UK. Isaiah Whitehead could be a great third guard off the bench – there’s a little Dion Waiters in him (the confidence, ability to get his own shot), and since he’s not going 4th overall, there’s some value in that. I really like Hernangomez’s potential as a stretch 4. He has a super smooth stroke with good size, but it’s unclear if he’ll be in the NBA right away. Maker barely scrapes into this group on the strength of his potential; if he can maximize his shooting, ball skills, and physical potential defensively, he could be a monster, but he’s just so far away from getting there that it’s scary. The age concerns are a curveball, too.
31. Chinanu Onuaku (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 55% = 3.3)
32. Malcolm Brogdon (Upside: 5.5, Likelihood: 60% = 3.3)
33. AJ Hammons (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 55% = 3.3)
34. Malachi Richardson (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood: 45% = 3.15)
35. Kay Felder (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood 45% = 3.15)
36. Cheick Diallo (Upside: 7.5, Likelihood: 40% = 3.0)
37. Robert Carter (Upside 6.0, Likelihood: 50% = 3.0)
38. Gary Payton II (Upside: 6.5, Likelihood: 45% = 2.925)
39. Damian Jones (Upside 7.0, Likelihood: 40% = 2.8)
This is more of a role player group. Onuaku could be an excellent post defender with his strength and surprising quickness for his size, and he is actually a decent passer as well. But his touch and hands offensively will always limit him somewhat – could he be Festus Ezeli-esque? Brogdon is a scouts’ favorite due to his unbeatable intangibles, but his production and defensive ability are also some tangibles to love. Not an elite athlete, but I’d bet he carves out a role. At 24 years old, Hammons might have limited upside, but he’s huge and has some skills both offensively and defensively. I can’t speak much to his off the court personality, but he could be a serviceable backup center. Most people have Richardson up near Beasley and ahead of McCaw, but I think he compares unfavorably to Rashad Vaughn, last year’s 18th overall pick who was an absolute nightmare as a rookie. That doesn’t bode well, but the physical tools and shooting form are there for him. Kay Felder, the 5’9 Oakland dynamo, put up video game numbers in college, and if he finds the team who can let him be a sparkplug bench scorer (and he continues to develop defensively), he will have some value. Diallo and Carter are both 4-men who will need to rebound a ton to maximize their own value – Diallo has little offensive value other than as a rim runner and possibly developing a 15-foot jumper, whereas Carter is an okay passer and shows a nice half hook every once in a while. Payton II is a great defender and athlete with extremely versatile skills (good passer, elite guard rebounder), but he’s another guy with a broken jump shot. Damian Jones has a similar issue to his teammate Baldwin – that Vanderbilt team just had no killer instinct at all, despite having two potential first round picks (plus a 7-foot shooter/shot blocker, good wings, …sigh. I’ll just get frustrated talking about them).
40. Joel Bolomboy (Upside (6.0, Likelihood: 40% = 2.4)
41. Michael Gbinije (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 40% = 2.4)
42. Cat Barber (Upside: 6.5, Likelihood: 35% = 2.275)
43. Damion Lee (Upside: 5.5, Likelihood: 35% = 2.2)
44. Elgin Cook (Upside: 5.5, Likelihood: 40% = 2.2)
45. James Webb III (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood: 30% = 2.1)
46. Jarrod Uthoff (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 35% = 2.1)
47. Wayne Selden (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 35% = 2.1)
48. Stephen Zimmerman (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 35% = 2.1)
49. Diamond Stone (Upside: 7.0, Likelihood: 30% = 2.1)
50. Yogi Ferrell (Upside: 6.0, Likelihood: 35% = 2.1)
This tier consists of guys that, if they accept it, could fit into distinct roles on the right team. Bolomboy is an elite rebounder, bringing high effort and surprisingly elite leaping ability (40.5” vertical!). Gbinije is old and played zone in college, but he has the length, athleticism, and shooting ability to be a 3-and-D guy after playing PG at Syracuse. He can’t really shoot, but Cat Barber is a jet and can put points up in a hurry. Lee is a guy you won’t find on many draft boards, but like Gbinije, he has length, defensive ability, and can shoot – put him in the right role, and he can handle it. Cook is in the same vein, but he’s more elite defensively and less proficient shooting the ball. He’s an incredible athlete, too. Webb and Uthoff are both lengthy, 3/4 tweeners who can make an impact defensively (Uthoff in particular was shockingly good as a shot-blocker). Webb was one of the best defensive rebounders in the country, but he won’t be able to overwhelm athletically in the NBA. He’ll need to gain strength, too. Uthoff’s shooting could help him become a stretch 4 off the bench. I don’t really love Selden as a pro prospect; he’s just never gotten much better. After a torrid start to the year from deep, he regressed back to 38% by the end of the year. He has the strength to guard bigger 3’s, but he needs to be able to drill corner 3’s. Zimmerman is athletic and can rebound and block shots, but he’s extremely raw offensively. Stone is one of the best low post scorers in the draft, but he’s pretty ground-bound, he can’t rebound for a guy his size, and he will be totally screwed trying to defend the PnR. Rounding out the 3MW top-50 is my roommate’s dad Kevin Ferrell (aka Yogi), a deadeye shooter who got better and better as a floor leader at Indiana. He’s short but stout, and he could be a good backup PG in the right situation.
Outside the top 50 guys worth a swing: Isaiah Cousins (big guard, tough), Pascal Siakam (good scorer who might be athletic enough to stick), Derrick Jones (hell of an athlete), Thomas Walkup (he just knows how to play basketball, has the strength and athleticism to be an elite defender), Zach Auguste (headcase, but he’s a true PnR threat as a roll man), and Jameel Warney (I JUST LOVE THIS GUY!).